SpaceX IPO — Initiation of Coverage | Graham Advisors | 5 April 2026

SpaceX IPO — Initiation of Coverage | Graham Advisors | 5 April 2026

We publish today our initiation note on SpaceX, following the confidential SEC filing on 1 April 2026 (target valuation $1.75T).

VERDICT: an extraordinary company at an immoderate valuation.

Key points:
— Mature business (Starlink + Launch) stands alone at $350-450B — 20-26% of IPO valuation
— 74-80% of valuation = pure option value on 10-20yr horizon projects (orbital data centres, Mars, mining)
— 113x 2025 revenue; $200-500B additional capex requirement post-IPO is structurally unfunded
— Fair institutional entry: $900B-$1.1T (35-45% post-listing correction)
— Dual-class structure confirmed → minority shareholders structurally voiceless
— Hyperscaler capex analogy holds — but at an order of magnitude with no precedent

Full note (FR/EN) attached. Available on request.

Graham Advisors SARL | Freienbach, Switzerland
This communication does not constitute investment advice.

TSLA | The Real Reason Behind the SpaceX IPO — Musk's $139Bn Compensation Tri

The SpaceX confidential SEC filing of April 1 has been widely read as an IPO story. We think it is primarily a compensation engineering story — and the most consequential one in equity market history.

Here is the mechanism, in plain terms.

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THE TESLA COMPENSATION PLAN — STRUCTURE
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Musk's 2018 Tesla compensation plan — originally valued at $56Bn, now estimated at $139Bn following market appreciation following its Delaware reinstatement in February 2026 — consists exclusively of performance stock options structured around 12 market capitalisation tranches. Each tranche unlocks when Tesla's market cap crosses a predefined threshold. There is no base salary, no time vesting. Pure performance equity.

The plan carries no expiry risk tied to share price alone, but it does expire if the milestones are not achieved within the defined operational and market cap windows. Critically: the milestones are set on Tesla's standalone market cap.

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THE MERGER AS A MILESTONE ACCELERATOR
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Here is what changes with a SpaceX/Tesla merger:

1. The combined entity's market cap immediately reflects the sum of both valuations. Tesla alone trades at ~$1.58T. Add SpaceX at $1.75T (IPO price), and the combined entity sits at ~$3.3T — comfortably above every remaining milestone threshold in the 2018 plan.

2. A merger agreement typically requires the acquiring/surviving entity to assume, convert, or accelerate the target's outstanding compensation plans. In a Tesla/SpaceX combination, the recalibration of Musk's Tesla tranches is a central governance issue that must be resolved as part of deal terms. The independent Tesla board committee handling the merger will be forced to make a determination on the outstanding options.

3. The independent fairness opinion, which any proper merger process requires, will necessarily address whether the combined entity's market cap — at $3T+ — satisfies the spirit and letter of the remaining tranche milestones. It almost certainly does.

4. The result: a deal structure that mechanically triggers full vesting of the remaining tranches, generating an estimated $100–300Bn in option value for Musk depending on the exercise price and stock price at the time of conversion.

To put this in context: Bloomberg currently excludes the entire $139Bn plan from Musk's net worth as contingent. Forbes partially includes it based on milestone progress. A merger collapses that uncertainty in Musk's favour, permanently.

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WHY THE IPO COMES FIRST
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The sequencing matters enormously. SpaceX must be a public company with an independently verifiable market price before any Tesla/SpaceX merger can be executed without legal challenge. Without a public SpaceX price, any exchange ratio is a related-party transaction with no external benchmark — a certain target for Delaware class action litigation.

The confidential filing is therefore Step 1 of a two-step process:
→ Step 1: SpaceX IPO at $1.75T (June 2026) — establishes the fairness opinion anchor
→ Step 2: All-stock merger with Tesla — triggers the compensation milestone cascade

The passive index mechanics amplify the entire trade. Nasdaq 100 inclusion 15 days post-listing, followed by S&P 500 fast-track, generates an estimated $150–200Bn in forced buying from passive vehicles. This mechanically pushes SpaceX valuation higher ahead of the merger ratio negotiation — maximising Musk's exchange ratio and therefore the value of the Tesla tranches he receives in conversion.

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THE NUMBER
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If executed cleanly:
• Tesla comp plan fully triggered: est. $100–300Bn in option value
• SpaceX stake crystallised: ~$753Bn at IPO price
• Combined net worth (Forbes basis): $1.4–1.6T

This would represent the single largest individual compensation event in the history of public markets — by an order of magnitude.

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RISKS TO THE THESIS
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• Delaware independent committee on Tesla may reject the merger terms or propose an unfavourable exchange ratio — exactly the scenario that blocked the 2018 plan initially
• Antitrust scrutiny on a $3T entity controlling launch, satellite internet, defense, and AI simultaneously
• Market dislocation in Q2 2026 (US-Iran, Nasdaq correction) delays or kills the June IPO window
• xAI cash burn disclosed in S-1 creates a valuation overhang on the combined entity

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Full note (FR/EN) attached — covers the 4 consolidation scenarios, passive flow mechanics, cap structure, and complete flywheel.

Happy to discuss.

Best

Miss Tweed : New designers boost Chanel and Dior, others bet on mini bags

New designers boost Chanel and Dior, others bet on mini bags

A new creative impulse has boosted sales at Dior and even more so at Chanel, while other brands are betting on mini bags and lower priced totes to lure back the fickle aspiring customer. It’s tough out there in the luxury goods market. War in Iran and rising geopolitical tensions have dented the so-called feel-good factor and dried up tourist flows, two major drivers of luxury spending.

>>> EQUITY STRATEGY | SPX '26 EPS vs. Multiple Divergence — The Mag7 Confession

EQUITY STRATEGY | SPX '26 EPS vs. Multiple Divergence — The Mag7 Confession Season Begins | Q1 2026 Earnings Preview


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I. THE CORE DISLOCATION: EPS STILL AT $323, MARKET PRICING RECESSION
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The BofA chart making the rounds this morning crystallises what is arguably the cleanest macro signal of the cycle: S&P 500 2026E EPS has been revised UP +4% since January 1st to $323 — almost entirely on Mag7 margin and capex monetisation assumptions — while the index itself has violently de-rated. The divergence is not noise. It is a direct read on multiple compression: the market is not buying the $323 story.

The implied forward P/E on the way down is now ~18.8x vs. a 22x+ peak six weeks ago. Historically, that compression happens either because (a) estimates are wrong, or (b) the macro trajectory deteriorates faster than analysts can revise. Right now, both risks are live simultaneously.

What is not yet priced: analyst estimates are a lagging variable. Buy-side knows this. The sell-side coverage universe has NOT moved the Mag7 EPS pencil materially — cuts are coming on guidance, not on forward assumptions. That is the trap embedded in the BofA chart. The moment guidance wobbles on the April/May reporting cycle, the $323 floor becomes the $295–$305 ceiling, and re-rating lower accelerates.

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II. THE FULL Q1 2026 EARNINGS CALENDAR — SUPPLIERS FIRST, MAG7 AFTER
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⚡ TIER 1 — CRITICAL READ-THROUGHS BEFORE MAG7 REPORTS

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ DATE │ COMPANY │ TICKER │ WHAT TO WATCH │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Apr 15 (BMO) │ ASML │ ASML │ EUV order book, China normalisation │
│ Apr 16 (BMO) │ TSMC │ TSM │ Hyperscaler CoWoS demand, 2nm ramp │
│ Apr 16 (AMC) │ Netflix │ NFLX │ Ad spend environment, digital CPM │
│ Apr 22 (TBC) │ SAP SE │ SAP │ Enterprise IT budget read-through │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

⚡ TIER 2 — MAG7 REPORTING WINDOW (APRIL 28 – MAY 20)

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│ DATE │ COMPANY │ TICKER │ CONSENSUS EPS │ CONSENSUS REV │ KEY │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│ Apr 28 (AMC) │ Tesla │ TSLA │ ~$0.50 │ ~$23–24B │ AUTO │
│ Apr 28 (AMC) │ Alphabet │ GOOGL │ ~$2.10–2.20 │ ~$89–91B │ CLOUD │
│ Apr 29 (AMC) │ Amazon │ AMZN │ ~$1.95–2.10 │ ~$155–157B │ AWS │
│ Apr 29 (AMC) │ Meta │ META │ ~$5.25–5.50 │ ~$41–43B │ AI/AD │
│ Apr 30 (AMC) │ Apple │ AAPL │ ~$1.60–1.65 │ ~$94–96B │ IPHONE│
│ May 7 (AMC) │ Microsoft │ MSFT │ ~$3.45–3.55 │ ~$73–75B │ AZURE │
│ May 20 (AMC) │ Nvidia │ NVDA │ ~$0.90–0.95 │ ~$43–45B │ DC/AI │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Note: Consensus figures as of April 5, 2026. Dates subject to confirmation. Alphabet and Amazon dates remain unconfirmed; Tesla confirmed Apr 28.

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III. DEEP DIVE — MAG7 STOCK BY STOCK
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1. NVIDIA (NVDA) | Reports ~May 20
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Last print (Q4 FY2026, Feb 25): Revenue $68.1B (+73% YoY, +20% QoQ). Data Centre alone $62B (+75%). Non-GAAP EPS $1.62 vs. $1.54 est. Gross margins held at 75%. Q1 FY2027 guidance: $78B (±2%) — a further ~15% sequential step-up.

Management guided that Vera Rubin next-gen AI chips are tracking SIX MONTHS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE — one of the most significant positive datapoints in the tech cycle right now.

Key risk into Q1 FY2027: Blackwell ramp deceleration, gross margin pressure from CoWoS packaging constraints (TSMC-dependent), and export control overhang on H20 series into China. Any guide-down from the $78B level will be interpreted as a demand air pocket — and will re-price the entire AI infrastructure trade.

What we want to hear: (i) Vera Rubin pull-forward orders from hyperscalers, (ii) inference chip ramp (GB200 NVL72 rack systems), (iii) no margin compression below 73%.

Bull case: $85B+ Q2 guide. Bear case: $72–74B with margin pressure — stock gaps -15% or more.

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2. MICROSOFT (MSFT) | Reports ~May 7
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Last print (Q2 FY2026, Jan 29): Revenue $81.3B (+17% YoY). Azure +39% YoY — the standout metric. Microsoft Cloud $51.5B (+26%). Commercial RPO surged to $625B (+110% YoY) — a staggering forward demand indicator. GAAP EPS $5.16 (+60%). Capex guided at $99B for FY2026 (June year-end), with CFO Amy Hood confirming further growth in FY2027. OpenAI relationship evolving — Microsoft is simultaneously diversifying toward Anthropic ($5B investment).

The Azure +39% number is the single most important data point in the Mag7 universe. If it holds or accelerates in Q3 FY2026 (the quarter being reported in May), the AI monetisation thesis is intact. If it decelerates to +32–34%, expect material estimate cuts across the entire hyperscaler complex.

Key watch: Azure growth rate vs. expectations, Copilot seat monetisation velocity, capex commentary for FY2027.

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3. META PLATFORMS (META) | Reports Apr 29
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Last print (Q4 2025, Jan 29): Revenue $59.9B (+24% YoY). FY2025 revenue $201B (+22%). EPS $8.88 vs. $8.21 est. (+8.1% surprise). Ad impressions +18% YoY; average price per ad +6%. DAP 3.58B (+7%). FY2025 capex: confirmed in the $60–65B range — above prior consensus of $50.7B.

2026 capex guidance: Zuckerberg guided $110–125B+ for 2026 AI infrastructure. This is the single largest capex commitment of any company globally as a % of revenue. The market initially sold this hard (-28% from peak). Since then, META has partially recovered on ad monetisation resilience.

Q1 2026 key read: Ad revenue growth (is the +20% YoY revenue trajectory holding?), Reality Labs losses vs. expectations, any revision to the $110–125B capex band. If Zuckerberg signals capex optimisation, read that as ROI pressure — not discipline. If he doubles down, the market will want evidence of Llama/AI monetisation timelines.

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4. ALPHABET (GOOGL) | Reports ~Apr 28
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Last print (Q4 2025, Feb 4): EPS $2.82 vs. $2.63 est. Revenue $113.83B vs. $111.43B est. Net income +30% YoY to $34.46B. Google Cloud $17.66B (+48% YoY — the standout). YouTube ad revenue $11.38B — missed $11.84B expected. 2026 capex guidance: $175–185B — more than DOUBLE 2025 levels. Alphabet is betting the entire company on AI infrastructure.

Q1 2026 concern: YouTube miss in Q4 raises the question of whether digital ad CPM is starting to soften at the margin — a critical read-through for the broader ad market. Google Cloud growth of +48% must continue: if it decelerates to +35–38%, the AI monetisation premium evaporates. Search ad market share is also under scrutiny as AI-native search (Perplexity, OpenAI SearchGPT) gains enterprise adoption.

Key watch: Cloud revenue growth rate, Search ad market share commentary, YouTube CPM trends, any revision to the $175–185B capex commitment.

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5. AMAZON (AMZN) | Reports ~Apr 29
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Last print (Q4 2025): EPS $1.95 — slight miss vs. $1.97 consensus. AWS: consensus was $29.4B for Q1, operating margin ~35%. FY2026 capex: guided to $105B — nearly double 2023 levels.

AWS is the most important cloud read-through for enterprise AI spending. AWS growth vs. Azure growth will define the Q2 sector narrative. Amazon has additional complexity: tariff exposure on the e-commerce side creates a dual-risk print — if the core retail margin is squeezed while AWS is also guiding cautiously, the stock re-rates to a new lower bound. FX is an additional headwind given USD strength.

Key watch: AWS revenue growth rate (consensus ~$29.4B for Q1), operating margin trajectory, any tariff impact disclosure on retail COGS, North America advertising revenue (a stealth AI monetisation engine).

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6. APPLE (AAPL) | Reports Apr 30
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Last print (Q1 FY2026, Jan 29): EPS $2.84 vs. $2.67 est. Revenue $143.8B (+16% YoY). iPhone +23% to $85.27B. China recovery: +38% growth to $25.53B — the most positive surprise in years. Services $26.34B (+14%). Mac -7%. Wearables -2%. Demand outpaced supply.

Apple is paradoxically the SAFEST of the Mag7 into earnings — the last print was strong, iPhone demand held, and the Google Gemini deal for Siri overhaul adds an AI monetisation optionality layer that has not yet been priced by most models.

Key risk into Q2 FY2026 (April 30 report, which covers the January–March quarter): tariff exposure on Chinese manufacturing — Apple has ~90% of iPhone production in China. Every 10% tariff on Chinese goods is estimated at a ~$900 gross profit hit per iPhone. Tim Cook has been actively building out India capacity, but the ramp cannot cover FY2026 volumes. This is the one name where the tariff narrative could genuinely move the needle on estimates.

Key watch: Gross margin guidance (tariff pass-through), China revenue (can the +38% trajectory hold?), Services growth, India production ramp timeline.

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7. TESLA (TSLA) | Reports Apr 28
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Last print (Q4 2025, Jan 28): Revenue $24.9B (-3% YoY) — first annual revenue decline in company history. FY2025 revenue $94.83B vs. $97.69B in 2024. GAAP net income Q4 $840M (-61%). Non-GAAP EPS $0.50 vs. $0.40 est. (+25% surprise). Gross margin 20.1%. Cash $44.1B. Deliveries Q4: 418,227 vehicles.

Tesla is structurally the most challenged name in the Mag7 complex. Top-line has stalled, BYD has overtaken as global EV leader, and the valuation at 200x+ forward earnings is entirely dependent on Optimus/Robotaxi optionality — neither of which is contributing to 2026 earnings.

Elon's political visibility has created measurable brand damage in Europe and coastal US — a real headwind that has not yet been fully modelled into delivery forecasts. Q1 2026 delivery data (expected shortly) will be the first read on whether the Cybercab ramp is offsetting Model S/X weakness. Any delivery miss below 400K will re-open the debate on the 200x multiple.

Key watch: Q1 deliveries vs. 400K threshold, gross margin resilience, Optimus/FSD timeline update, any Robotaxi regulatory news.

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IV. THE CRITICAL SUPPLIER READ-THROUGHS — TRADE THESE BEFORE MAG7
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A. TSMC (TSM) | Apr 16 — THE MOST IMPORTANT REPORT OF THE SEASON
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TSMC guided Q1 2026 revenue of $34.6–35.8B (+38% YoY). Gross margin 63–65%. FY2026 revenue expected to grow ~30% in USD terms. The company is ramping 2nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) technology and managing Arizona Fab 3 costs simultaneously.

Why it matters: TSMC is the gating variable for the entire AI stack. NVIDIA relies on TSMC for 100% of its H300 and B200 accelerators. A TSMC beat and confident call validates hyperscaler demand is NOT rolling over. A miss or cautious commentary — particularly on HPC (High Performance Computing) order visibility — is an immediate negative read-through for NVDA, ASML, and by extension every hyperscaler capex story.

Additional risk: The Helium Crisis in late February (Ras Laffan, Qatar disruption) raised output questions. Watch for any supply-chain commentary on fab productivity.

● TSMC beat + $36B+ rev + strong HPC commentary → Buy Nvidia, Buy Microsoft, Buy Alphabet
● TSMC miss or cautious HPC guide → Sell everything in the AI stack before Mag7 reports

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B. ASML (ASML) | Apr 15 — EUV ORDERS ARE THE LEADING INDICATOR
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ASML reports April 15 (BMO). Q1 2026 EPS consensus: $7.67. Revenue guidance: €8.2–8.9B. FY2026 guidance: €34–39B. ASML guided that NVIDIA wafer requirements are rising from ~2.5 wafers to ~10 wafers per product by 2027 — a seismic demand signal for lithography intensity.

Key watch: Net bookings figure (Q4 2025 was a record €13.2B). Any deceleration in bookings = demand pull-forward risk. China: management guided China normalises to ~20% of total sales in 2026. Any upside in China is a risk factor given export control evolution. EUV/High-NA ramp commentary is the forward read on TSMC's 2nm/1.4nm timeline.

● ASML strong bookings + EUV confidence → confirm AI infrastructure capex cycle
● ASML booking slowdown → leading indicator of hyperscaler capex pause — front-run the Mag7 short

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C. NETFLIX (NFLX) | Apr 16 — DIGITAL AD MARKET HEALTH
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Netflix reports April 16 (AMC). Q1 2026 EPS: $0.76 consensus (+15.2% YoY). Revenue: $12.17B. FY2026 revenue guided at $51B (+14% YoY), operating margin 31.5%. Ad sales grew 2.5x in 2025 and management expects a DOUBLING in 2026 to ~$3B.

Netflix's ad-supported tier CPM pricing and ad sales growth is the most direct read on the digital advertising market that reports BEFORE Alphabet and Meta. If Netflix ad revenue is tracking strongly in Q1, that de-risks the Alphabet YouTube miss in Q4 and confirms Meta ad impressions are still monetising efficiently. A Netflix ad softness read = risk-off on both GOOGL and META into earnings.

● Netflix ad acceleration → green light for Alphabet and Meta estimates
● Netflix ad miss → go defensive on digital ad exposure ahead of GOOGL/META

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V. THE DECISION FRAMEWORK — HOW TO TRADE THE SEQUENCE
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The earnings season functions as a sequential de-risking (or re-risking) event. The sequencing matters:

STEP 1 — APR 15/16 (ASML + TSMC + Netflix): The true sentiment barometer. These three names tell you everything about the underlying demand picture before the Mag7 CEO conference calls add narrative complexity. Trade the read-throughs.

STEP 2 — APR 28/29/30 (Tesla + Alphabet + Amazon + Meta + Apple): The EPS anchors. Five of seven Mag7 in a three-day window. Expect extreme volatility. Each name's capex commentary will be cross-referenced against the others — any inconsistency in hyperscaler demand language (AWS vs. Azure vs. Google Cloud) will be traded aggressively.

STEP 3 — MAY 7 (Microsoft): Azure growth rate is the definitive read on enterprise AI adoption velocity. This is the last nail in the coffin or the all-clear signal.

STEP 4 — MAY 20 (Nvidia): The season's final boss and the most binary print of the cycle. Guidance vs. the $78B+ Q1 FY2027 implied baseline — any miss here re-opens every debate about AI infrastructure overcapacity.

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VI. THE EPS SCENARIO TABLE — WHERE DOES $323 LAND?
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SCENARIO EPS 2026E FAIR P/E SPX IMPLIED
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Estimates hold $323 20x 6,460 ✅
Mild cut (-8%) $297 19x 5,643 ⚠️
Hard cut (-15%) $275 17x 4,675 ☠️
Stress cut (-22%) $252 15x 3,780 🔴

The stress scenario assumes Mag7 guide-down + multiple compression from macro deterioration. It is not the base case. But at current index levels, it is not fully priced out either.

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VII. OUR POSITIONING VIEW
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We are NOT buyers of the index ahead of earnings confirmation.

The BofA chart documents a classic late-cycle trap: the multiple compression has been violent, but the EPS anchor has not yet been stress-tested by management guidance. Until the confession season is complete — i.e., after Microsoft and Nvidia report in May — the $323 EPS line remains a working assumption, not a floor.

SELECTIVE TACTICAL VIEWS:
→ OVERWEIGHT: TSMC (TSM) into Apr 16 — strongest risk/reward in the AI stack with confirmed demand guidance
→ OVERWEIGHT: Microsoft (MSFT) — Azure trajectory and RPO backlog provide the most defensible earnings quality
→ UNDERWEIGHT: Tesla (TSLA) — 200x forward multiple with structurally declining deliveries; no margin of safety
→ UNDERWEIGHT: Apple (AAPL) into tariff clarity — China manufacturing exposure not yet quantified
→ NEUTRAL/WATCH: Meta (META) — capex discipline is the single swing variable; Zuckerberg tone on AI ROI timeline will define the stock in H2
→ NEUTRAL: Alphabet (GOOGL) — Cloud recovery is real; YouTube softness and antitrust remain structural overhangs
→ AVOID: Adding Nvidia beta ahead of May 20 print — asymmetric risk to guide-down after $78B implied baseline

The mid-May window — post all seven Mag7 prints — is where we see the highest-conviction entry point for the index if estimates prove durable.

The Information : Anthropic Acquires Startup Coefficient Bio for About $400 Mill

Anthropic Acquires Startup Coefficient Bio for About $400 Million

The Takeaway
  • Anthropic acquires AI biotech startup Coefficient Bio for about $400 million.
  • Coefficient Bio team joins Anthropic’s healthcare life sciences group.
  • Coefficient Bio developed AI platform for drug discovery and R&D.

Anthropic has acquired AI biotech startup Coefficient Bio for roughly $400 million, according to a person with knowledge of the deal.

The startup’s team will be joining Anthropic’s healthcare life sciences group, which develops tools for the biotech industry ranging from drug discovery to clinical commercialization, said the person.

Coefficient Bio, which was founded last fall, was developing a platform that enables AI to run biotech tasks such as planning drug research and development, managing clinical regulatory strategy and identifying new drug opportunities. The company’s cofounders include CEO Aris Theologis, who previously held executive roles at life sciences firms Evozyne and Paragon Biosciences, and Chief Technology Officer Nathan Frey, who was a research scientist at Prescient Design and Genentech, according to their LinkedIn profiles. Coefficient Bio has fewer than ten employees, according to the person.


The deal, whose precise value couldn’t be learned, comes as Anthropic has doubled down on building AI tools targeting specific industries including finance, cybersecurity and life sciences. That’s in addition to allowing developers to access its Claude models through an application programming interface and its popular coding agent Claude Code.

In October, Anthropic made improvements to its Claude chatbot, like allowing it to connect to tools such as Benchling and BioRender commonly used by scientists and adding features to automate research tasks, to make it more useful for scientists. In January, Anthropic added new features to automate tasks for scientists like preparing regulatory submissions or drafting clinical trial protocols.

Anthropic has partnerships with life sciences companies Sanofi, Novo Nordisk, Genmab, AbbVie, the Allen Institute and HHMI. In January, Anthropic also expanded into healthcare, enabling doctors, insurers and healthcare companies to use Claude for medical tasks in a HIPPA-compliant environment.

Since staffing up its corporate development team last year, Anthropic has held discussions with companies to boost its efforts in industries such as healthcare and financial services. Anthropic also had discussions last fall with early-stage biotech startups about data licensing and partnerships.

Eric Kauderer-Abrams, previously an executive at health and life sciences companies Detect, identifeye, and Liminal Sciences, leads Anthropic’s health care life sciences group.

WSJ : SpaceX Pushes Back Crucial Starship Test Launch

SpaceX Pushes Back Crucial Starship Test Launch
The Elon Musk-led company now looks to test an upgraded version of its giant rocket in May after previously targeting March and April

SpaceX delayed the next test flight of its Starship rocket until early to mid-May, after previously aiming for early March and April.
NASA plans to use a version of Starship in 2028 to land astronauts on the moon, but some officials have been skeptical of its readiness.
The upcoming Starship flight, following 11 previous tests, features numerous upgrades like a redesigned propellant system and improved Raptor engines.

SpaceX delayed the next test flight of its massive Starship rocket, pushing off the highly anticipated mission by at least another month.

SpaceX Chief Executive Elon Musk said Friday the next launch attempt for the roughly 400-foot rocket would occur sometime in early to mid-May. In January, Musk said the new version of Starship would launch in early March, and he later pushed the date to around April 7.

Touted for years by Musk as the key to taking humans to Mars, SpaceX is now looking to show that Starship can work, including by lofting the company’s own satellites into orbit. It is developing the rocket as the company prepares for a highly anticipated public offering that bankers believe will make SpaceX one of the most valuable companies in the world.

Rocket development is always a difficult endeavor, with margins between success and fiery failures relatively thin. SpaceX’s Starship is designed to be the most powerful rocket ever built, consisting of a booster that propels a large spacecraft into space. Both are intended to be rapidly and fully reusable.

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is also looking to have a version of Starship ready for 2028, when the U.S. space agency plans to use the vehicle to land astronauts on the lunar surface for the first time in over 50 years.

Some current and former spaceflight officials are skeptical that the Starship lander will be ready for that operation, given the amount of development work ahead and the relatively tight time frame. SpaceX has said it offered the agency ideas to simplify the planned landing operation.

Texas-based SpaceX has conducted 11 flight tests of Starship over the last three years, but the next one is expected to be one of the most important to date.

The version of the rocket SpaceX plans to put through its paces on the next flight features numerous upgrades and engineering changes. Those include a redesigned propellant system on its booster and improved Raptor engines.

FT : US-Israeli war on Iran threatens Syria

US-Israeli war on Iran threatens Syria
Country faces assaults from militias in Iraq, Hizbollah and Israel’s military as its fledgling government seeks to sit out conflict

Syria is facing cross-border attacks from Shia militia groups in Iraq and from Israel as it struggles to remain on the sidelines of the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Damascus’s fragile government is seeking instead to position the country as an energy transit hub for nations affected by the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz as the US signalled the war, now in its fifth week, would run for weeks more.

Earlier this week Syria said it had intercepted a large-scale drone attack on former US bases near the Iraqi border, the latest assault by Shia militia groups. Last month Syrian troops came under artillery assault by the Hizbollah militant group in neighbouring Lebanon, which like the groups in Iraq joined the fray in support of Tehran last month.

Within Syria itself, a shadowy Shia militia group has taken credit for several attacks on US and Israeli assets over the past three weeks. The group was formed earlier this year, vowing to fight Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Sunni government.

“We had enough war,” the president, who seized power in 2024 after years of civil conflict, said at an event hosted by the Chatham House think-tank in London this week. “We are not ready ​for another war experience.”

Israel — which has been using positions it occupies in southern Syria to stage attacks on Lebanon — also launched a wave of air strikes on southern Syria last month following alleged clashes between government security forces and Druze militiamen, threatening to deepen domestic unrest. Israel said, as it has done with previous interventions in Syria, that it was coming to the defence of the Druze minority.

Damascus, meanwhile, has sent thousands of its troops to bolster its borders and limit the flow of weapons and fighters, defence officials have said.

Those movements have fuelled deep concerns in Lebanon and Iraq, where government officials and pro-Iran groups speculated that Syrian forces could launch cross-border incursions. Syrian officials and analysts say that worry is unfounded. 

The US envoy to Syria denied a Reuters report last month that Washington was pressing Damascus to operations inside Lebanon to help disarm Hizbollah. But regional and western officials told the FT serious conversations about the possibility had taken place with US officials over a period of months, both before and during the war.

“Syria’s armed forces don’t have the capacity to do anything like this,” said Kheder Khaddour, a Syria analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “They barely have enough forces to cover their own territory.”

Following 14 years of devastating civil war that placed Syria at the epicentre of the Levant’s instability, Damascus now finds its position inverted. Neighbouring countries are increasingly caught up in the fallout from the US-Israeli war against Iran, but Syria has remained relatively insulated from its effects, analysts said, as it tries to piece itself together under its new rulers.

“For over a decade, the country served as the central arena where regional and international rivalries played out. Today, by contrast, it has repositioned itself as a neutral actor,” wrote Haid Haid, Syria researcher at Chatham House.

That transition process since Sharaa took power in December 2024 has been marred by instability and sporadic violence. But he has worked to reposition Syria away from its former pariah status on the world stage.

Sharaa has deepened relationships with Arab nations — including Lebanon and Iraq, where residual tensions remain from his past ties to al-Qaeda — as well as with Washington and European states. 

Asked whether Syria would remain neutral on the Iran conflict, he said this week: “We want Syria to have ideal relationships with the entire region, with Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and world powers like the UK, France, Germany and the US.

“I think that Syria is qualified to start a strategic relationship network.”

One country with which Damascus does not maintain formal diplomatic ties is Iran, an ally of former dictator Bashar al-Assad, whom Sharaa ousted in 2024. 

“Unless Syria is targeted by any party, Syria will remain outside any conflict,” the Syrian president said, but he added: “We do not want Syria to be an arena of war. But unfortunately, today, things are not governed by wise minds. The situation is volatile and random.”

Sharaa has also sought opportunity in the chaos, positioning his country as a conduit for energy and telecommunications between Europe, the Gulf and Asia. 

In Germany this week, Sharaa pitched his country and its land routes as a safe alternative to counteract disruptions to supply chains and energy flows from the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“Syria can serve as a safe haven. It can ensure the security of supply chains through its strategic location, as well as energy supplies via the Mediterranean coast,” he told the heads of German companies in Berlin.

“Any disruption in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz further underscores Syria’s potential role as a secure alternative route.”

It follows a yearlong effort to recruit significant investment in the energy sector in Syria, backed by Washington, in which Damascus secured billions of dollars in investment to help revive the ailing sector. 

This week, Iraq began overland fuel exports using Syrian land routes, as the Strait’s shutdown strangles its exports. Baghdad said volumes would expand gradually. But they face constraints from poor infrastructure — which has been damaged by a decade of war and neglect — and security.

As Iraqi militias continue to attack and threaten Syria, there are concerns it could be drawn further into the conflict.

“How long can Syria stay neutral?” Khaddour said. “The longer this war goes on, the more this conflict expands, the greater the risk it could spill over into Syria.”

FT : Renters’ Rights Act brings big changes to UK property market

Renters’ Rights Act brings big changes to UK property market
New rules aim to provide safety and security for tenants, but landlords are anxious

On TikTok, property influencers lament the end of the buy-to-let landlord. “What used to work back in the day is now not just dead but a complete catastrophe,” says Samuel Leeds, a TikTok content creator who focuses on property and tax issues. “This is terrible for most hard-working British landlords.”

The Renters’ Rights Act, set to come into force in May, is one of the most significant changes the residential property market has seen in decades, and many are anxious about its impact.

Since the early days of the legislation, landlords have warned it would lead to an exodus of small-scale property owners, who make up 83 per cent of the UK private rental sector.

While there are some signs of fewer landlords entering the market, the sell-off among landlords appears to have been tempered by falling residential property prices, particularly in London.

“I think the people that were going to exit have already exited,” said Chris Norris, chief policy officer at the National Residential Landlords Association.


Many in the property sector suggest the act will force the buy-to-let landlords who remain to become more professional.

“Landlords with one or two properties, particularly those who entered the sector accidentally through inheritance, relationship change or an inability to sell, are more exposed to rising complexity and costs,” said Louisa Sedgwick, managing director of mortgages at Paragon Bank.

The government argues that the Renters’ Rights Act is a long-overdue effort to provide safety and security to tenants.

Angela Rayner, the former deputy prime minister who helped push the bill through parliament last year, told the FT she “doesn’t apologise” for the new rules and denied it was piling pressure on landlords.

“There are landlords out there that can make a profit without it being at the expense of other people’s safety and security,” she said.

For tenants, the act will mean they can challenge any “unreasonable” rent increases at a tribunal. It will also end bidding wars, by forbidding landlords and letting agencies from soliciting multiple offers on a property. Among the most significant changes will be the abolition of Section 21, which allows landlords to evict tenants without cause.

Landlords are concerned that this will make it more difficult and costly to deal with problem tenants, and property lawyers are reporting a rise in eviction notices before the act comes into force.

“We’ve seen a massive increase in serving the Section 21s before the deadline day,” said Paul Shamplina, founder of Landlord Action, a company that specialises in housing law. 

Shamplina said the firm had seen a 62 per cent increase in the number of eviction instructions year on year, equivalent to “hundreds” of additional notices. Ministry of Justice figures for evictions this year have not yet been released.

From May, landlords will only be able to evict tenants if a reason is given, such as non-payment of rent, antisocial behaviour or because the landlord is moving into the property.

This change is expected to lead to more property tribunal cases and added pressure on an already strained court system; the Ministry of Justice said it was working “to strengthen capacity”, including hiring more judges.

Kristine Ng, a partner at Morr & Co solicitors, said she was seeing more landlord-tenant disputes and evictions as property owners moved to “sell, redevelop or re-let properties on different terms” before the new regulations took effect.

Landlords who do not comply with the act will face fines, including £7,000 if they fail to send a Renters’ Rights Act Information Sheet to tenants, as well as additional penalties for failing to deal with mould and electrical risks.

However, Shamplina argues that tenants are most likely to be the worst hit as the regulations cause landlords to reprice risk and increase rents.

Anastasia Karaseva moved with her daughter to Richmond, south-west London, five years ago. But the former paralegal, who is undergoing treatment for breast cancer, said she was “shocked” when she received a Section 21 notice from her landlord last month.

Karaseva, who is herself a landlord through a property she owns overseas, is working with the Acorn tenants union to fight the eviction.

“It’s just outrageous because they’re doing exactly what the act will prevent them from doing,” Karaseva said.

Her landlord, the Poppy Factory veterans’ charity, told the FT it was evicting “a small number” of tenants to bring properties up to market rate before the new rules on rental increases came into effect.

“The Renters’ Rights Act has meant we have had to move more quickly than we would have liked,” a Poppy Factory spokesperson said, adding that no veterans or charity beneficiaries were affected by the move.

Some landlords have opted to move outside of the mainstream private rental sector. London-based specialist property agency Elliot Leigh said it had seen an influx of landlords interested in multiyear “guaranteed rent” deals, which involve properties being signed over to councils for use as temporary accommodation or social housing.

Last month, the FT reported that Criterion Capital, which provides both private rental and temporary accommodation, had served Section 21 notices to private residents in 130 units across its property portfolio.

“There are growing signs that some landlords are evicting tenants, only to rehouse homeless families at higher rents,” said Susie Dye of the Trust for London, a non-profit group.

FT : Pharma just ‘scratching the surface’ of weight-loss drug market

Pharma just ‘scratching the surface’ of weight-loss drug market
Novo Nordisk chief estimates industry reaching only 15% of potential customers at most

Pharma companies are just “scratching the surface” of the huge potential market for weight-loss drugs and should focus more on widening access, according to the boss of the company behind Wegovy and Ozempic.

Mike Doustdar, chief executive of Novo Nordisk, told the FT in an interview, “You need to expand the market especially if you work in a business like ours. In the US, there are 110mn people [with] obesity.”

He added that Novo, its main rival Eli Lilly, and US “compounding” pharmacies that make copycat obesity drugs combined “are scratching the surface — we’re getting no more than 10 to 15 per cent of that population at this point in time. There’s very little talk about the rest.”

Doustdar took over as Novo chief executive last August to try to improve the Danish company’s fortunes after a difficult period when it lost its market lead to Lilly and had some disappointing trial results.

It is hoping that the launch of its weight-loss drug Wegovy in pill form this year will help it win back ground, though Lilly has also just won US regulatory approval for its weight-loss pill Foundayo.

Doustdar said the need to expand access was one reason Novo agreed to cut prices for drugs sold via TrumpRx, the US president’s prescription website. Lilly and a number of other big pharma companies reached similar deals.

Novo is also planning sharp cuts to US wholesale prices for Wegovy and Ozempic, which is sold as a diabetes treatment. Prices will fall by 50 and 35 per cent respectively from January.

“The deal with the Trump administration, albeit works well for the US government, it also works very well for us,” he said, because it widens the customer base with lower prices.

One major challenge for Novo is patent expiries. Semaglutide, the active ingredient in Ozempic and Wegovy, has recently lost patent protection in Canada, India, Brazil and China, opening the door to cheaper non-branded “generic” drugs. At least 10 companies in India have already launched generics.

Emil Larsen, Novo’s executive vice-president of international operations, suggested price cuts could form part of its strategy to compete in a price-sensitive market like India.

Novo already cut the price of Wegovy injections in India by up to 37 per cent last year, with the highest dose of 2.4mg selling for about $187 a month compared with about $250 a month in the UK.

Larsen, who runs all overseas operations excluding the US, told the FT in an interview: “There’s already a crowded marketplace [in India] and it will get more crowded . . . our ambition is to remain competitive at where the prices land over the coming months.”

He also said that to compete with generics, Novo’s “number one is to underscore the quality of our products . . . There’s a trust and brand recognition element that we work with.”

He pointed out that although the company’s human insulin products lost patent protection decades ago, Novo remains a market leader because of its brand name, quality assurance and large-scale production.

To offset some of the effects of patent expiries, Novo has agreed partnerships. In Brazil, it has partnered with Eurofarma to launch Wegovy under the brand name Poviztra for weight loss and Extensior for diabetes.

In India, it has an agreement to launch Poviztra with Emcure Pharma. For Extensior it is working with Abbott. Both Emcure and Abbott have extensive distribution networks across the world’s most populous nation.

Larsen said a bigger challenge than competition from generics was the limited size of the weight-loss drug market in many parts of the world.

“The biggest problem we have from an opportunity perspective in a market like India is not yet competition, it’s that there’s hardly a market. There are more patients being treated in Denmark with Novo Nordisk products than [in] the most populous country in the world.”

Trust in established brands will be key to expanding access, he added.

“The strength of a quality brand with a legacy of delivering good outcomes at a reasonable price goes a very long way in emerging markets.”

FT : 400% gains for AI stocks help drive Hong Kong IPOs to 5-year high

400% gains for AI stocks help drive Hong Kong IPOs to 5-year high
Deal backlogs and stricter quality controls are pushing some tech firms back to mainland Chinese listings

A raft of Chinese AI and tech companies have boosted Hong Kong initial public offerings to a five-year high.

Primary and secondary offerings in Hong Kong raised some US$14bn in the first quarter of 2026, the best first quarter for equity sales since 2021, according to data from Dealogic and LSEG. That is ahead of rivals including the Nasdaq, New York and Bombay stock exchanges.

The two best-performing stocks listed this year, Zhipu and MiniMax, have soared more than 400 per cent this year, showing how the hunt for exposure to China’s fast-growing AI sector is driving the market.

“If you look back at 2025 when the DeepSeek moment happened, investors were buying [Chinese] large cap tech stocks in the indices,” said Jason Lui, head of Apac equity and derivative strategy at BNP Paribas.

“But this year you have pure-play AI lab and AI hardware stocks, for investors who wish to express a strong view on China’s artificial intelligence sector.”


The dominance of technology hardware and software companies in recent Hong Kong IPO statistics underscores the territory’s role as an offshore fundraising hub for Chinese companies looking to expand abroad and invest in research and development. 

The IPO pipeline for this year includes more than 400 companies already in the process, with others such as agricultural chemicals company Syngenta also looking to list in the city.

However, two capital markets advisers said some tech companies are looking at switching their listing destination back to Shanghai or Shenzhen, signalling a potential reopening of the mainland markets as rivals to Hong Kong.

While listing in the mainland remains difficult, because of tough requirements by the regulators, companies with strategic intellectual property in the technology sector can be fast-tracked.

An investment manager at a Beijing-based venture capital firm said some of its portfolio companies — mainly in AI, quantum computing and neurotechnology — are considering listing on Shanghai’s tech-focused STAR Market.



Stricter quality control requirements for Hong Kong IPOs have lengthened the listing and registration process compared with last year, the manager said.

In recent weeks, regulators have moved to stop “low-quality” companies from listing in Hong Kong as it seeks to slow but not halt the IPO boom.

China’s top securities watchdog, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), recently blocked listings by some companies with opaque offshore structures that it deems to have “relatively low ownership transparency and higher compliance risks.”

Along with the CSRC, the Hong Kong exchange has also raised concerns about the quality of the information submitted by potential share issuers. It has threatened to “name and shame” the lawyers and accountants behind poor or inaccurate IPO prospectus.