WSJ : Born of Boom and Bust

Born of Boom and Bust
In William Hogarth’s engraving of the South Sea Bubble, chaos reigns in the wake of widespread financial ruin.
Under a turbulent sky, a city is going mad. A public square teems with people gambling, picking pockets, beating and whipping each other. Overhead, wolves slink around.

The city is recognizable as London—that’s Guildhall on the left and St. Paul’s Cathedral in the background. But in every other respect the natural order of things is subverted. Buildings run helter-skelter through space, arranged in multiple, off-kilter perspectives that wrench the rules of artistic geometry. In the left background, a balcony swarming with women tilts crazily downward, its vanishing point impossibly high in the sky, different from that of the building to which it’s attached. The base of the monument to the right answers to another set of rules; the structures facing it, to still others.

What plays out before us is grim fantasy in the guise of a genre scene. At the center, the crowd hauls a giant wooden lever that turns a creaking merry-go-round. Satan, flames spewing from his mouth, presides over the pandemonium, while at bottom center a naked, supine figure lies strapped to a wagon wheel.

We are looking at a satire on greed and human folly, specifically the South Sea Bubble of 1720. Stock in the South Sea Co. had soared nearly 650% as everyone from King George I and Isaac Newton to the poet Alexander Pope speculated that the trading and financial conglomerate would keep booming. Instead, the stock collapsed, wiping out investors large and small.

William Hogarth was a keen observer of the intense ferment of London life. He produced this engraving around 1721, when the wounds from the bursting of the bubble were still raw. Only 23 years old, he caught the mood of an entire city swept up in collective madness. When Hogarth was a boy, his father, a teacher who struggled to provide for his family, spent four years in confinement as a debtor. That memory, and the vivid contrasts between rich and poor in London’s booming economy, fired Hogarth’s lifelong contempt for greed.

Hogarth lays out his fraught tale using a mixture of symbol and allegory, much of it helpfully explained in the text he added at the bottom. On the left, Satan has turned Guildhall, the administrative seat of London’s government, into a meat market. He hacks the goddess Fortune to pieces and heaves chunks of her bloody flesh to the mob. At the edge of the crowd, a dwarf and a liveried footman pick the pockets of a schoolmaster. Some scholars have argued that the dwarf is Pope, who stood 4-foot-6. Next to the monument, a figure of “Vilany” (Villainy) flogs “Honour” as an elegantly clad monkey—long a symbol of folly and greed—bares Honour’s back for the lashing. Nearby “Honesty,” lashed to the wagon wheel, is about to be bludgeoned by “Self-Interest.”

Towering above them all is the merry-go-round. Its carousel animals are truncated horses, and the riders come from all walks of life: a prostitute, a minister, a shoeshine boy, an old hag with a hunchback, and a Scottish nobleman.

The merry-go-round represents the wheel of fortune. Into at least the 16th century, religious plays were staged across Europe with a carousel symbolizing how fickle luck and wealth are without divine grace. Three actors portraying kings would climb the wheel at the bottom, surmount it at the top and fall off it, while an actress representing the blind and capricious goddess of fortune turned a crank that propelled the wheel.

The goat at the top symbolizes Pan, the Greek god of chaos and panic. Below, a sign asks, “Who’l Ride” (Who Will Ride?). It is one of the keys to Hogarth’s image. During the 18th century, brokers—or “stock-jobbers,” as they were known—subdivided lottery tickets or shares of stock and rented them out to speculators, often for only a few hours at a time. (Day trading is not a modern invention!) The practice of renting tickets or stock was known as “riding” or “horsing.” No wonder, then, that all these carousel animals are truncated horses. The sign, then, doesn’t merely ask who will take a joyride on the merry-go-round. It is explicitly asking who will speculate in fractional shares of the South Sea Co. Hogarth’s answer is everyone.

Hogarth even suggests that the damage is irreversible: The monument at the right is modeled on the one put up to commemorate the Great Fire of 1666. But its inscription says it was “erected in memory of the destruction of this city by the South Sea,” while the goddess of Trade (legitimate industry) lies in the street at its foot, hollow-eyed and dressed in rags.

We know, of course, that the damage wasn’t irreversible. Later in the 18th century, Britain’s factories and financiers led the Industrial Revolution that helped create the modern world, and London went on to serve as Europe’s financial center well into the 21st century. Still, given the way stock markets have continued to boom and bust every few years ever since, Hogarth’s warnings about the greed and folly of the crowd remain as fresh as they were three centuries ago.

—Mr. Zweig writes the Journal’s ‘The Intelligent Investor’ column.

>>> US Close Dow -0.78% S&P -0.22% Nasdaq +0.68% Russell -1.04%

Closing Stock Market Summary

Mega-cap tech powered the Nasdaq Composite to a 0.7% gain and to new record highs on Monday. The S&P 500 set an intraday record high but declined 0.2% amid relative weakness in the broader market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.0%.

There was an absence of new macro developments, so the same tech-related stocks continued to set the winning pace at the expense of the cyclical stocks within the energy (-2.2%), materials (-1.5%), financials (-1.2%), and industrials (-1.2%) sectors. Declining issues outpaced advancing issues by more than a 2:1 margin at the NYSE. 

Apple (AAPL 129.04, +4.23, +3.4%) and Tesla (TSLA 498.32, +55.64, +12.6%) rose 3% and 12%, respectively, as investors continued to bid shares higher following their stock splits today. Amazon (AMZN 3450.96, +49.16, +1.5%) gained 1.5% after its drone delivery unit received FAA certification.

AAPL and AMZN carried the S&P 500 information technology (+0.4%) and consumer discretionary (+0.2%) sectors into the green, but the health care (+0.3%) and utilities (+0.3%) sectors also put in a positive performance.

Interestingly, the CBOE Volatility Index climbed 15.0% to 26.41, as investors assumed some protection against a possible downturn in equities. The popular view is that a modest correction could come in September after a strong two-month performance in the S&P 500. The benchmark index ended August with an impressive 7.0% gain. 

Separately, CNBC reported that a TikTok deal could be announced as soon as tomorrow. Front-runners Microsoft (MSFT 225.53, -3.38, -1.5%), Walmart (WMT 138.85, -1.45, -1.0%), and Oracle (ORCL 57.22, -0.66, -1.1%) declined more than 1.0% today. 

U.S. Treasuries saw modest gains amid the underlying weakness in the stock market. The 2-yr yield declined two basis points to 0.13%, and the 10-yr yield declined four basis points to 0.69%. The U.S. Dollar Index declined 0.2% to 92.19. WTI crude futures declined 0.8%, or $0.35, to $42.62/bbl.

Investors did not receive any notable economic data on Monday. Looking ahead, investors will receive the ISM Manufacturing Index for August and Construction Spending for July on Tuesday.

  • Nasdaq Composite +31.2% YTD
  • S&P 500 +8.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -6.4% YTD

FT : KKR buys €1.8bn stake in Telecom Italia’s last-mile network

KKR buys €1.8bn stake in Telecom Italia’s last-mile network
US group acquires 37.5 per cent of FiberCop at ‘turning point’ for national system

Telecom Italia’s board has approved the sale of a minority stake in its secondary network to US private equity group KKR for €1.8bn, after delaying the decision earlier this month at the government’s request.

KKR Infrastructure, which had entered talks with the telecoms company at the beginning of the year, will acquire a 37.5 per cent stake in FiberCop, a new company owning Telecom Italia’s so-called last-mile network, which runs from streets to homes. KKR will help the company upgrade the copper parts of the grid to fibre.

Telecom Italia said on Monday that the deal was the first step in a “turning point” for Italy’s telecommunications system and the project would be “open” to different players.

Fastweb, an Italian broadband operator, will also hold a 4.5 per cent stake in the new company, after a joint venture between Telecom Italia and Fastweb, called FlashFiber, is incorporated into FiberCop.

Telecom Italia has also signed a memorandum of understanding for a strategic partnership with Tiscali, another Italian operator.

On August 4, the Italian government asked Telecom Italia to postpone the decision on KKR’s offer.

This was to allow time to try to carve out a merger deal with smaller rival Open Fiber, which is jointly run by state-controlled utility Enel and state lender Cassa Depositi e Prestiti (CDP). This would have accelerated creation of a single national broadband network.

On Monday, the board of directors of Telecom Italia and CDP agreed to negotiate a separate deal to ensure a significant presence of the state lender in the future single broadband network company, according to a statement by CDP. It will be named AccessCo.

Under the plan, Telecom Italia will maintain the majority stake in a new company that will incorporate its secondary and primary networks as well as Open Fiber, while governance would be shared with CDP, according to several people involved in the discussions. Enel declined to comment.

Luigi Gubitosi, Telecom Italia chief, has championed the idea of a single national broadband operator for some time.

The company’s three-year business plan, unveiled in March, pointed to the KKR deal as the first step towards creating a single national network and envisaged the integration with Open Fiber to avoid duplications.

However, disagreements with Enel over the terms of the deal meant enthusiasm for the plan dwindled, according to several people briefed on the talks.

FT : Nestlé/biotech: peanut gallery

Nestlé/biotech: peanut gallery
Swiss group’s deal for maker of allergy treatment will take time to pay off

Nestlé is best known for its Kit Kat chocolate bars and Nespresso coffee. But recent M&A moves by the Swiss food and beverage giant are making it look increasingly like a drug company.

Its latest acquisition, California-based Aimmune Therapeutics, marks the company’s biggest gamble yet on health science. Nestlé has agreed to pay $34.50 a share to gain full ownership of the US biotech group, which made headlines earlier this year when it won US approval for peanut allergy treatment Palforzia. The offer represents a 173 per cent premium to Aimmune’s closing price on Friday, and values the business at $2.6bn, including debt.

The deal takes Nestlé boss Ulf Mark Schneider back into familiar territory. He led German healthcare company Fresenius for 13 years before joining Nestlé in 2017. His interests are reflected in deals. Since he took over Nestlé, it has sold off underperforming assets such as lunch meat and bulked up in fast-growing areas such as meat replacements and medical nutrition.

The combination of food and drugs is not as odd as it sounds. Sales of highly processed foods are on the wane. Food and pharmaceutical groups are converging around high-margin, non-prescription health products, for both humans and animals. Nestlé, for example, makes dog food that claims to fight dementia.

Having invested in products that range from gastrointestinal medication to health supplements, Nestlé is now targeting the food allergy market. Up to 240m people worldwide suffer from food allergies, according to the World Allergy Organization. Peanut allergies are the most common. Nestlé reckons Aimmune’s Palforzia treatment, which is made from peanut flour and given as a powder mixed with foods, could deliver potential annual sales of $1bn later this decade.

The keyword is “potential”. Like many biotech companies, Aimmune has as yet made no sales and reported a loss of $248m last year. It will take time for the investment to pay off. But with a market valuation of more than SFr303bn ($336bn) and plenty of cash from recent disposals, Nestlé can afford to be patient.

FT : ViacomCBS/media: pipe up

ViacomCBS/media: pipe up
Consumers want quality programmes; they just have too many outlets to choose from

When Sumner Redstone passed away, ViacomCBS, the media empire he carefully curated, had an enterprise value of roughly $40bn. Included in the colossus: the CBS broadcast network, film studio Paramount, book publisher Simon & Schuster and cable networks MTV and Comedy Central. Together it contains some of the most successful creative minds in the world.

Meanwhile, user-generated content on smartphone app TikTok has been talked up at a potential $50bn valuation. Instead of movies, publishing and TV, TikTok features teens lip-syncing and dancing for free. User-generated content on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube is also thriving. The likes of ViacomCBS and other legacy media known for high quality and high costs seem to be become less relevant every year.

ViacomCBS shares are down 30 per cent this year. Shares in rival Fox have dipped about the same. Advertising revenue across traditional broadcast and cable networks fell more than 25 per cent in the second quarter, according to research firm MoffettNathanson, as marketers have pulled back spending. Some companies, including ViacomCBS, have tried to pivot to streaming services. High start-up costs and a crowded field dominated by Netflix suggest their prospects are dim.

Consumers still want quality programmes. They just have too many other outlets to choose from. AT&T spent $85bn to buy legacy media company Time Warner. Even with its lustrous network HBO, it has so far failed to break through. AT&T shares are down 23 per cent this year.

Staying out of the content wars and remaining a profitable if dull toll-collector could be the wisest move. Charter Communications, the cable TV and broadband goliath assembled by John Malone, has seen its shares rise 22 per cent this year to hit an enterprise value of $210bn. Cancellation of cable television subscriptions continues but it has managed to keep selling broadband internet to Americans stuck at home. In the second quarter, it added more than 800,000 new internet subscribers — nearly four times the level last year. The winner among legacy media titans could be the dumb pipes.

WSJ : New York City Postpones Layoffs for 22,000 Workers

New York City Postpones Layoffs for 22,000 Workers
Union leaders urged Mayor Bill de Blasio to postpone the job cuts to allow more time to find alternative cost-saving measures

New York City will delay sending layoff notifications to 22,000 government workers, officials said Monday, after union leaders urged Mayor Bill de Blasio to postpone the job cuts to allow more time to find alternative cost-saving measures.

Workers across all city agencies were expected to be notified Monday if they would be laid off by Oct. 1. The layoffs are considered a last-resort option by the city, which faces a financial crisis brought on by the new coronavirus pandemic.

The city needs to balance a $9 billion deficit over the next two years. It also has to fill a $1 billion labor gap in its budget for the current fiscal year, and $4.2 billion for next fiscal year, according to officials.

“Unions are working hard to find creative solutions, and asked for more time,” mayoral spokesman Bill Neidhardt said in a statement about the postponement. He didn’t say when the layoff notifications would be sent to workers.

As an alternative to layoffs, Mr. de Blasio has asked the state legislature to grant the city the power to borrow $5 billion, but Democrats who control the state Senate have so far objected. New York City council members and union leaders have recently joined the mayor in his push for borrowing authority.

“To stop these layoffs altogether, there is a simple solution: long-term borrowing,” Mr. Neidhardt said.

The city, which has a workforce of nearly 325,000 employees, is required to provide a 30-day notice to employees who are in danger of losing their jobs.

Labor leaders had urged the city to delay the process as they continued to negotiate with the city on ways to save money within their contracts. They said their workers were on the front lines during the pandemic, and have framed their opposition to the layoffs in moral terms.

“If we’re going to get together and go through the most difficult things to be done, you can’t do it under the threat of layoffs,” Henry Garrido, the executive director of District Council 37, the city’s largest public-employee union, said in an interview last week.

Good-government groups have said some of the layoffs could be avoided if the city shifts more health-care costs to unionized city employees, or by initiating retirement for some of the city’s workforce.