WSJ : Shopping Mall Activists Score an Early Win

Shopping Mall Activists Score an Early Win
The owner of the Westfield chain issued new bonds cheaply, but still needs to sort out its $35 billion debt load

Trans-Atlantic mall giant Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield URW +1.79% has pulled back from the brink. Finding a lasting fix for its debt problem will be more challenging.

Late Wednesday, Europe’s largest listed-property company by assets said it had issued bonds worth €2 billion, equivalent to $2.4 billion: one with a six-year maturity and coupon of 0.625% and an 11-year bond at 1.375%. Half of the cash will be used to refinance existing debt. The size and low cost of the issue is a win for activist investors who have been pushing for a new approach.

Along with French telecoms billionaire Xavier Niel, Unibail’s former chief executive Léon Bressler successfully persuaded investors to vote against a controversial €3.5 billion equity raise two weeks ago. Back then, Unibail’s chairman and chief executive warned that unless shareholders stumped up, the company could lose access to bond markets. Both men have since been ousted, with Mr. Bressler taking over as chairman.

News that a Covid-19 vaccine will soon be available helped the activists’ case. The yield on Unibail’s outstanding bonds has increased slightly since investors voted against the capital raise, but remains much lower than during the March selloff.

The new debt will come on top of net borrowings already equivalent to 12 times the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization Unibail generated last year. To get that number down, the activists want Unibail to sell underperforming Westfield malls in the U.S. But with the rise of e-commerce weighing on the value of stores, it may be hard to find buyers at an acceptable price.

The company may still raise equity. Unibail’s shares have rallied 85% since Pfizer said its vaccine is effective. Under the old management’s plan to raise €3.5 billion, shareholders would have been diluted by 37%, according to UBS. At today’s higher share price, that dilution falls to 28%. Unibail needs to keep bond markets sweet: Any increase in the cost of debt would make it harder to refinance its €29 billion of total borrowings.

Mr. Bressler has been correct so far, but more difficult decisions are still to come.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 26th of November 2020 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Bpost Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 11.75 euros
* DCC Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 7,490 pence
* Euromoney Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 1,250 pence
* Kloeckner Raised to Buy at Nord/LB; PT 8 euros
* Plastic Omnium PT Raised to 32 euros from 26 euros at Oddo BHF (+)
* Sandvik PT Raised, Morgan Stanley Sees ‘Exciting’ 2021
* Solvay Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 125 euros

>>> Down
* AO World Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 400 pence
* Autogrill Cut to Hold at Fidentiis Equities; PT 5.75 euros (+)
* Ceconomy Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 3.60 euros
* CRH Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 32 euros
* Jungheinrich Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 39 euros (+)
* Melrose Industries PLC Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 160 pence (+)
* Plastic Omnium Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 27 euros
* PostNL Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 3 euros
* Quadient SA Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 17 euros (+)
* Ricardo PT Raised to 525 pence from 420 pence at Liberum
* SES GDRs Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 6.80 euros
* STMicroelectronics PT Raised to 40 euros at Liberum
* Yara Cut to Underperform at BofA; PT 340 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Airthings Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 16 kroner
* Aroundtown Rated New Outperform at Exane; PT 7 euros
* CTT Rated New Sell at Berenberg; PT 1.85 euros
* Eurocell Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 260 pence

>>> Call
* Comet Guidance a Beat, Targets Indicate More Potential: Vontobel (+)
* DCC Upgraded With Electric-Vehicle Worries Overdone, MS Says
* E-Commerce Exposure Key for European Postal Stocks: Berenberg
* Mitchells & Butlers Posts ‘Solid’ FY20 Results: Morgan Stanley (+)
* Plastic Omnium ‘Right Tone’ Cited at Deutsche Bank, Cut on Value (+)
* Remy Guidance Suggests Est. Upgrades, Valuation Already Rich: MS (+)
* Yara Gets Only Sell as BofA Double-Downgrades on Cost Outlook

FT : Chinese media step up campaign to muddy probe into Covid origins

Chinese media step up campaign to muddy probe into Covid origins
Communist party newspaper tries to undermine belief virus jumped to humans within the country

Chinese state media are marshalling fringe theories to argue that the coronavirus pandemic began outside China, ahead of a World Health Organization investigation into the origins of the virus.

People’s Daily, the official Chinese Communist party newspaper, said in a Facebook post on Wednesday that “all available evidence” suggested the virus “did not start in central China’s Wuhan”, citing Chinese experts.

The post follows a series of statements from Chinese officials and scientists that have sought to cast doubt on the belief that Sars-Cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, first made the jump to humans within China.

One idea being promoted is that the virus was brought to Wuhan by frozen foods or their packaging and its spread was merely amplified in a local market.

“If we think back to the early outbreak in Wuhan at the start of the year, the patients from Huanan seafood market were concentrated in the frozen seafood section,” Wu Zunyou, a leading epidemiologist at China’s Centre for Disease Control, told Beijing News this month.

“These clues all point to imported cold chain seafood being the outbreak’s origin.”

China has been an outlier in claiming that frozen foods and their packaging represent a serious threat in seeding outbreaks of Covid-19.

Scientists have found some evidence that the virus can remain active in cold environments for long periods of time, but experts outside of China agree overwhelmingly that cold chain transportation represents a negligible risk of causing infections.

It is widely believed that Sars-Cov-2 originated in horseshoe bats after scientists identified a strain of the virus that is a close genetic match to the one found in humans. But how and where it made the jump to humans remains a mystery.

“Everything is still very fuzzy, very unclear,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for public health at the Council for Foreign Relations in New York. 

China maintains that it is open to an investigation into the origins of the virus. However, the first team sent by the World Health Organization to establish guidelines for later studies failed to visit Wuhan, drawing criticism from US diplomats.

The plan adopted by the WHO’s investigation into the origins appears to be in line with China’s official position that the source could well be outside Wuhan, he said. Details of the global study were released this month. 

On Monday, Michael Ryan, the WHO Health Emergencies Programme executive director, said that the team should start the search in Wuhan and follow the evidence from there.

“While there was most certainly a temporal and geographic cluster associated with the market, not all cases in that initial cluster can be linked directly to the market,” he said.

The remarks were widely circulated in Chinese media, often omitting his assertion that the probe needed to focus first on Wuhan. 

China’s efforts to suggest that the virus originated outside the country threaten to worsen already frayed ties with the US in the final weeks of Donald Trump’s presidency. Mr Trump has been a frequent critic of the WHO, which he accuses of being too deferential to China.

Mr Huang fears that there could be further politicisation of the process that will make it harder for “an independent, transparent and thorough investigation with results that can be accepted by all involved parties”.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +3.7%
  • Carnival Plc (POH1 TH) +3.1%
  • AstraZeneca (ZEG TH) +2.1%
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX TH) +1.6%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +1.5%
  • Glaxo (GS7 TH) +1%
    • Biotech-Pharma Key Events Next Week: PDUFA, Covid-19
  • Erste (EBO TH) -1.4%
  • JDE PEET’S (JDE TH) -1.5%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1.7%
    • S.Korea Seeks Prosecutor Probe of Delivery Hero’s App Pricing
  • SES (SES TH) -4.9%
    • SES GDRs Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 6.80 euros

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1.5%
    • S.Korea Seeks Prosecutor Probe of Delivery Hero’s App Pricing
MDAX:
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX TH) +1.8%
    • Stock fell 7.7% over past three trading days
  • Fraport (FRA TH) +1.8%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +1.5%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.3%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.1%
    • Liberty, Thyssen Steel Talks Set to Advance to Due Diligence
  • Deutsche Lufthansa (LHA TH) -0.8%
    • Deutsche Lufthansa Management Roadshow Set By Bankhaus Metzler
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1%
SDAX:
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1.7%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +1.6%
  • Encavis (CAP TH) +1.4%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) -1%
  • SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) -1.1%
  • Kloeckner (KCO TH) -1.3%
    • Kloeckner Raised to Buy at Nord/LB; PT 8 euros