>>> Europe ; Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 7th of December 202

>>> Up
* ASML Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 420 euros
* AstraZeneca Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* GEA Group Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 26 euros
* iomart Raised to Buy at Shore Capital; PT 370 pence
* Linde Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $285
* Micro Focus Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 650 pence
* OMV Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 36.70 euros
* Pendragon Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 25 pence
* Vodafone Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT 165 pence

>>> Down
* AIB Group Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 1.85 euros
* Altice USA Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $34
* Arkema Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 96 euros
* Devoteam Cut to Hold at Midcap Partners; PT 98 euros
* Grand City Properties Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 22.50 euros
* Hollywood Bowl Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt
* Landis + Gyr Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 56 Swiss francs
* Repsol Cut to Neutral at Redburn
* Repsol Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* SKF Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 195 kronor
* Superdry Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 300 pence
* Wizz Air Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 5,000 pence

>>> Initiation
* Aker BP Rated New Buy at Redburn
* HeidelbergCement Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT 78 euros
* Kingswood Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 40 pence
* LafargeHolcim Reinstated Hold at Jefferies
* Lundin Energy Rated New Neutral at Redburn
* Soltec Power Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 8.50 euros
* Windar Photonics Rated New Buy at Cenkos Securities; PT 25 pence

>>> Call
* AstraZeneca Up to Overweight With Buying Opportunity Seen: MS
* Duty Free Abolition in U.K. ‘Unhelpful’ for Burberry: Jefferies
* EDP Top Utilities Pick For Playing Green Transition: Bernstein
* MS Prefers Cyclical Chemicals Over Defensives Heading Into 2021
* OMV Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley on Dividend Prospects

FT : EU dreams of Biden era face first reality check

EU dreams of Biden era face first reality check
Change of US president next month offers Europe both possibilities and potential headaches

Joe Biden says the US is back and ready to lead the world. The EU is glad to see the president-elect — but it doesn’t want to be merely a follower.

This is the transatlantic conundrum with which top EU officials will have to grapple this week. Foreign ministers meet on Monday and leaders from Thursday to plot how to reset the troubled alliance, once President Donald Trump leaves office next month.

The talks promise to be something of a reality check on what many European diplomats agree is the undoubted opportunity created by Mr Biden’s arrival. The transatlantic relationship is widely seen as having become more tense in ways that will outlast Mr Trump’s open antipathy towards the EU.

Mr Biden’s election win last month sparked a flurry of hopeful papers and speeches from EU institutions. These seek to capitalise on the new US administration’s stated intent to rejoin the multilateral fray in areas from global warming to world health.

The EU wants to ally with the US to take a “once-in-a-generation” chance to boost global co-operation and tackle the “strategic challenge” of China, according to a paper published last week by the European Commission and the bloc’s diplomatic service. The two transatlantic powers must “join forces to shape the international agenda”, said a separate document circulated by the European Council team of Charles Michel.

Yet even these diplomatic love letters are laced with a sharp perfume of demands and looming discord. The commission paper nods to potential disagreements over China, reflecting how Washington’s approach is still likely to be more hawkish across the board than the EU’s.

The council document speaks of the transatlantic powers as “equal partners”. That may not be how Mr Biden’s team sees it, since Washington’s military might remains the ultimate guarantor of Europe’s security.

Further possible flashpoints in areas including trade, data privacy and big tech taxation are clear from a speech by commission president Ursula von der Leyen last month. She warned EU ambassadors that “some shifts in priorities and perceptions run much deeper than one politician or administration” and would not “disappear because of one election”.

The imminent change of leadership in the US has also highlighted the 27-member EU’s difficulties in presenting a united front. It comes as some deep — and highly relevant — internal divisions in the bloc have flared up.

One is the neuralgic — if often ill-defined — debate over whether the EU should build more “strategic autonomy”. The push, led by Paris, disconcerts some more transatlanticist member states that see it as distancing Europe from the US.

The EU also faces a showdown over the slide towards autocracy in some member states. Hungary and Poland are currently stalling a plan to curb EU funding for countries that breach the law. The dispute could complicate European participation in Mr Biden’s push for an international alliance of democratic countries.

For many European diplomats, Mr Trump’s departure on January 20 cannot come soon enough. The question is whether EU dreams for a Biden presidency will survive contact with the actuality of it.

WSJ : Exxon Under Pressure From New Activist Fund

Exxon Under Pressure From New Activist Fund
Engine No. 1 plans proxy fight for four Exxon board seats

Exxon Mobil Corp. XOM 3.66% is facing the threat of a proxy fight from a newcomer activist investor with a sustainability bent that wants the beleaguered energy giant to act faster to remake itself.

Engine No. 1 LLC, an investment firm launched by Chris James last week, is preparing to send a letter to Exxon’s XOM 3.66% board urging the Irving, Texas-based company to focus more on investments in clean energy while cutting costs elsewhere to preserve its dividend. The letter, a copy of which was viewed by The Wall Street Journal, identifies four people the firm plans to nominate to Exxon’s 10-person board.

The San Francisco firm has the support of California State Teachers’ Retirement System, the big pension investor, and expects other shareholders to be sympathetic to the cause, given widespread frustration over Exxon’s share performance, a person familiar with the matter said. Calstrs holds a more than $300 million Exxon stake, while Engine No. 1 has one worth around $40 million, this person said.

Their combined ownership is smaller than what is typical for an activist taking on a company of Exxon’s size, and it is possible the campaign will fall flat. Still, Calstrs holds sway as the country’s second-largest pension fund and there have been instances of well-timed campaigns led by small shareholders gaining traction with other investors and yielding results.

“Without having seen the letter, we will decline to comment,” said Casey Norton, an Exxon spokesman.

Key to the outcome will be the reaction from larger shareholders, especially Vanguard Group, BlackRock Inc. and State Street Corp. , which together control nearly 20% of Exxon’s shares. BlackRock and State Street are part of Climate Action 100+, an investor group that pushes for companies to take swifter action to combat climate change. BlackRock, in particular, has a history of singling out Exxon for not moving quickly enough to address climate risks, and it cited those concerns earlier this year when it voted against two Exxon directors and in favor of separating the chairman and CEO roles. The directors were elected and the roles weren’t separated.

Exxon, which just seven years ago was America’s most valuable company, today has a market value of around $176 billion after the pandemic crushed demand for fossil fuels and laid bare prior strategic missteps. With its shares down 40% so far this year, there has been speculation Exxon could attract an activist investor seeking to harness frustration among shareholders.

Engine No. 1’s letter calls on Exxon to make four primary changes: 1) add independent directors with diversified energy-industry experience; 2) reduce capital expenditures, particularly on projects that are unlikely to break even with sustained low oil and gas prices; 3) formulate a plan to invest in growth areas such as renewable energy; and 4) realign management incentives.

“We believe that for ExxonMobil to avoid the fate of other once-iconic American companies, it must better position itself for long-term, sustainable value creation,” the firm writes.

Engine No. 1 launched with $250 million under management and primarily manages Mr. James’ own fortune from technology investing. Its focus is on so-called impact investing, which seeks to push companies to make changes that are beneficial in the long run to stakeholders such as workers and shareholders alike.

Its team includes Charlie Penner, a former partner at activist hedge fund Jana Partners LLC, where he helped run campaigns at companies including Whole Foods Market. He also led Jana’s successful joint effort with Calstrs in 2018 to push Apple Inc. to add features to help parents limit their children’s screen time.

Companies of all kinds are facing pressure to reduce their impact on the environment. As rivals such as BP PLC and Royal Dutch Shell PLC have begun investing in renewable energy—a strategy that their investors haven’t rewarded so far—Exxon was seen as somewhat of a holdout, with Chief Executive Darren Woods vowing instead to spend more on oil exploration to increase production.

But recently Exxon has been taking actions to address shareholder concerns. Last week, it retreated from Mr. Woods’ ambitious plan and said it would cut billions of dollars from its capital spending every year through 2025 and focus on investing in only the most promising assets. It also signaled it planned to take a write-down of as much as $20 billion on the value of natural-gas assets—a move it had long resisted—mostly stemming from the disastrous purchase of XTO Energy Inc. a decade ago.

Mr. Woods said the moves would help the company focus on improving earnings and strengthening its balance sheet to maintain the dividend. The dividend currently yields a whopping 9% and costs the company about $15 billion a year.

Exxon shares have risen about 9% since the announcement.

The window to officially nominate directors to Exxon’s board doesn’t open until later this month, and Engine No. 1 says in the letter it hopes Exxon will consider its nominees before that: Gregory Goff, the former CEO of refiner Andeavor, which was sold to Marathon Petroleum Corp. ; Kaisa Hietala, who previously led the renewables business of Finnish refiner Neste Oyj ; Alexander Karsner, an executive of Alphabet Inc.’s innovation lab who served in the Energy Department under President George W. Bush; and Anders Runevad, former CEO of Vestas Wind Systems AS.

>>> Asian Market Update

Asia Market Update: Asia trades mixed; Financials drop in CN and HK amid report related to frozen bank accounts, FTSE Russell commented on index removals; China trade surplus above ests, but components mixed

General Trend:
- Financials weigh on the Hang Seng, Tech trades mixed [Alibaba drops]; CNOOC continues to move lower; SMIC rises over 3%
- ZhengTong Auto Services drops over 20% in HK; China regulator said the firm improperly obtained the approval for the establishment of Shanghai Dongzheng Automotive Finance Co., Ltd.
- Financial and Property shares are the leading decliners in Shanghai; Consumer Staples and IT sectors outperform
- FTSE Russell: Will remove shares of 8 China companies (including Hikvision, China Railway Construction, China Spacesat, China Communications Construction, China Nuclear Engineering & Construction, CRRC Corp) from its indexes; effective Dec 21st (Monday); will evaluate CNOOC and SMIC in due course.
- Topix Air Transportation and Iron/Steel indices are among the decliners; Insurance and Pharma indices outperform
- South Korean chipmakers extend gains
- Australian iron-ore, Energy and Consumer Staples firms rise; Consumer Discretionary and Financial sectors lag.
- Australia 10-yr yield pares rise amid stepped up bond buying by the RBA
- China’s Nov iron ore imports again declined m/m

***Headlines/Economic Data***
Australia/New Zealand
-ASX 200 opened +0.5%
- MTS.AU Reports H1 (A$) underling Net 129.6M v 95.7M y/y; underlying EBIT 203.0M v 149.7M y/y; Rev 7.1B v 7.2B y/y
- (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Gov Lowe: Skeptical about need for central bank digital currency, maybe with the success of a digital currency elsewhere may change my view - Q& A
- (AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Gov Lowe: Australia's Payments System Board has resumed its periodic Review of Retail Payments Regulation; board does not see a strong case for a significant revision of the interchange framework in Australia.
- (NZ) RBNZ buys NZ$310M v NZ$310M prior in government bonds as part of QE v NZ$310M sought
- (AU) Australia sells A$2.0B v A$2.0B indicated in 1.00% Dec 2030 bonds, avg yield 1.0656% v 0.7482% prior, bid to cover 2.47x v 5.1x prior

Japan
-Nikkei 225 opened +0.5%
- (JP) Japan PM Suga confirms to announce further economic measures tomorrow, will include loans, more reserve funds
- (JP) Japan Nov FX Reserves: $1.38T v $1.38T prior
- 9201.JP Japan LDP Lawmaker: Public debate on funds for airlines is premature, ANA, JAL are able to stay in business and keep routes
- 9432.JP To sell ¥1.0T in bonds in record corporate bond sale for Japan (upsized from ¥700B)

Korea
-Kospi opened +0.2%
- (KR) More than 12 South Korea lawmakers are pushing the Bank of Korea (BOK) to broaden its mandate to cover employment stability (would be the 1st time in ~10-years mandate was adjusted) in order to address economic issues exaggerated by COVID - press
- (KR) South Korea tightens restrictions to 2.5 in Seoul, as Saturday recorded 631 cases (highest since early March)
- (KR) South Korea said to consider extension of tax cuts related to car purchases - South Korean press

China/Hong Kong
-Hang Seng opened +0.1%; Shanghai Composite opened +0.1%
- (CN) CHINA NOV TRADE BALANCE (CNY-DENOMINATED): 507.1B V 373.2BE; Exports Y/Y: 14.9% v 5.7%e; Imports Y/Y: -0.8% v 0.6%e
- (CN) CHINA NOV TRADE BALANCE: $75.4B V $53.8BE (record high); Exports Y/Y: 21.1% v 12.0%e (fastest pace in 19 months); Imports Y/Y: 4.5% v 7.0%e
- (HK) HKMA said it is in talks with the PBOC regarding 'technical test' related to digital yuan usage - financial press
- (CN) FTSE Russell said it will remove shares of 8 China companies (including Hikvision, China Railway Construction and China Spacesat) from its indexes; cited order from the US government
- (CN) China PBoC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY50B in 7-day reverse repos v Injects CNY10B in 7-day reverse repos prior; Net Drain CNY100B v Net drain CNY100B prior
- (CN) China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 6.5362 v 6.5507 prior (strongest since June 26, 2018)
- JD Has become the first China online mall to test the digital yuan – SCMP
- 5.HK Former Hong Kong democracy lawmaker Ted Hui said some of his bank accounts had been unfrozen, said he moved funds from HSBC; said he no longer trusted HSBC - financial press
- 000800.CN FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen said to have halted or reduced production due to auto chip shortages - China press

North America
- (CN) Trump Administration is preparing new sanctions on at least 12 China officials, relates to China's move to disqualify elected lawmakers in Hong Kong - financial press
- (US) Pres Trump urges Georgia Gov Kemp to "immediately ask for a Special Session of the Legislature"
- ABNB Indicated IPO pricing said to be raised to $56-60/shr (prior $44-50/shr) - US financial press
- (US) Attorney General (AG) Barr said to be considering leaving position before end of Trump term - press

Europe
- (EU) German Chancellor Merkel and France President Macron to soften level playing field demands in Brexit talks - UK press
- (UK) BOE's Haldane (chief economist): A nationwide spending spree could help the economy recover more quickly than current seen - UK press
- (UK) According to an un-named source on the UK side there has been no break through on fishing negotiations with EU – BBC
- (UK) PM Johnson and EU's Von der Leyen: still significant difference on 3 issues: level playing field, governance, and fisheries (Saturday)
- LHA.DE Expected to cut additional 10K jobs in Germany in 2021 and possibly another 20K cuts outside of Germany taking total global workforce to 109K - German press

***Levels as of 12:15ET***
- Hang Seng -1.5%; Shanghai Composite -0.5%; Kospi +0.2%; Nikkei225 -0.6%; ASX 200 +0.6%
- Equity Futures: S&P500 -0.2%; Nasdaq100 -0.1%, Dax -0.1%; FTSE100 +0.1%
- EUR 1.2141-1.2119; JPY 104.23-103.94; AUD 0.7437-0.7425; NZD 0.7050-0.7035
- Commodity Futures: Gold +0.2% at $1,843/oz; Crude Oil -0.5% at $46.02/brl; Copper -0.6% at $3.50/lb

FT : Wirecard fugitive Jan Marsalek took bank lending decision

Wirecard fugitive Jan Marsalek took bank lending decision
Former chief operating officer took crucial credit decision without having formal role at Bafin-regulated lender

Wirecard fugitive Jan Marsalek is alleged to have violated internal governance rules and banking laws in an incident that was flagged to Germany’s financial watchdog Bafin in 2019.

The incident, described in an EY audit report and other documents seen by the Financial Times, shows how Mr Marsalek, a 40-year-old Austrian who is believed to have fled Germany as Wirecard collapsed in June, was prepared to step outside the boundaries of his role as chief operating officer at the payments group.

The documents show that in mid-2018 Mr Marsalek granted a deferral for an €11.25m loan given by Wirecard Bank to a borrower who was in arrears with interest and repayments.

Mr Marsalek, who is now on Interpol’s most wanted list, had no formal role at Wirecard Bank, which was a Bafin-regulated subsidiary of Wirecard. The lender had its own separate executive and supervisory boards which were supposed to act independently and were not allowed to take orders from the parent company.

The bank’s audit report, which flagged other problematic lending and other shortcomings by Wirecard Bank, was filed to Bafin in 2019. It is unclear if Bafin, which that same year banned short selling in Wirecard shares and filed a criminal complaint against Financial Times journalists investigating the company, took any action.

Wirecard, a once high-flying payments group, collapsed into insolvency this summer after €1.9bn of corporate funds were exposed as a sham in one of Europe’s biggest postwar accounting frauds. The bank is to be wound down.

Munich prosecutors are taking a particular interest in loans given to business partners. The total volume of these loans to partners in Asia stood at around €870m in March 2020.

Among the loans was a €11.3m credit by Wirecard Bank in 2016 to Singapore-based company Bijlipay, a Wirecard business partner that offers mobile payments services to merchants in India.

Wirecard’s supervisory board member Tina Kleingarn told German MPs in a parliamentary hearing last month that the Bijlipay loan was one of several examples where Wirecard's internal risk assessment and the justification of the business case was substandard.

She said that she warned Wirecard chief executive Markus Braun about the weak credit decisions and at the end of 2017 left the supervisory board over concerns about Wirecard's poor corporate governance.

Wirecard Bank's loan to Bijlipay became non-performing after less than two years as the company stopped servicing it in mid-2018, documents seen by the FT show. At that point, Mr Marsalek intervened and, in a phone call with Bijlipay, granted a deferral.

According to EY’s audit report on Wirecard Bank, Bijlipay at that point was lossmaking and sitting on an unsustainable level of debt. It was also one of the companies mentioned by a Singapore-based whistleblower in early 2018 who raised allegations of balance sheet manipulation at Wirecard.

The auditor noted that a credit decision was taken “not in line with the internal authority of the bank”.

Danyal Bayaz, an MP for the Greens, said: “Mr Marsalek seems to have treated Wirecard Bank as a self-service store, grossly violating banking regulation rules.”

Florian Toncar, an MP with the liberal Free Democrats, said: “It is becoming ever more clear that the bank [ . . . ] was a part of Wirecard’s system of opaque money flows which was used to organise the fraud.”

Wirecard’s supervisory board was informed about Mr Marsalek’s interference in Wirecard Bank decisions by EY in March 2019. The auditor expressed “concerns regarding the independence of the board of Wirecard Bank AG” as Mr Marsalek acted “as a de facto risk taker” for the bank while not being “integrated into bank’s processes and internal control systems”, documents seen by the FT show.

In a terse subsequent letter to Mr Marsalek and other executive board members, the supervisory board pointed out that the “law requires that the management of Wirecard Bank AG is within the sole responsibility of the management board of Wirecard Bank AG”.

Apart from the letter, however, Mr Marsalek’s behaviour did not have any consequences. The COO was only fired in June 2020 days after it became clear that the outsourced business in Asia which was overseen by Mr Marsalek had been misrepresented to investors for years.

Mr Marsalek’s lawyer and Bafin declined to comment. Bijlipay did not respond to a FT request for comment.

FT : Altice Europe $2.5bn buy out faces further challenge

Altice Europe $2.5bn buy out faces further challenge
Winterbrook Capital launches US legal filings over minority squeeze out

Patrick Drahi’s attempt to take his European telecoms empire private faces another hurdle after London hedge fund Winterbrook Capital launched legal filings in the US to try to force the company’s advisers and an executive to issue documents about the deal ahead of formal litigation.

Altice Europe, which is listed in Amsterdam and owns telecoms networks in France, Portugal and Israel, launched a $2.5bn buy out offer in September. French billionaire Mr Drahi, who already owns almost 78 per cent of the company’s stock, offered €4.11 a share to buy out minority investors which was pitched as a 24 per cent premium to the Altice stock price.

The board recommended the offer yet the take private has attracted the ire of hedge funds holding Altice shares, including Lucerne and now Winterbrook, which are planning to launch court action in Amsterdam.

The funds argue that Mr Drahi has sought to exploit a temporary decline in the value of European telecoms stocks on the back of the Covid-19 pandemic at the expense of minority shareholders with an offer that, according to Winterbrook, “drastically” undervalues the real value of its assets like SFR, the French telecoms company.

Altice told the Financial Times: “There is a clear rationale for the transaction which will enable the company to focus on its long term strategy . . . the transaction values Altice Europe above its peers in the telecom industry.”

The company has defended its valuation in investor meetings by comparing to the performance with direct peers including Orange in France, NOS in Portugal and Bezeq in Israel. It has also highlighted a 2.3 times return on equity since its float in 2014 when factoring in the split of its US business into a separately listed company.

It is not the first time Mr Drahi has become embroiled in a battle with minority shareholders that have objected to a squeeze-out offer. French regulators blocked Altice’s attempt to buy out minorities in SFR in 2016 on the basis that insufficient information had been provided to the investors. The buyout was completed a year later.

Winterbrook, a UK fund which has built an undisclosed stake in Altice Europe, late last week filed in the US District Court for the Southern District, New York via the law firm Boies Schiller Flexner requesting that documents related to the valuation of Altice Europe are revealed.

It has targeted Lazard and LionTree, financial advisers to the Altice Europe offer, as well as Dexter Goei, a key lieutenant of Mr Drahi, who is chief executive of Altice USA, a listed cable business that was split from Altice Europe three years ago. Winterbrook has argued in the legal documents that it is “likely” that Mr Goei engaged in communications regarding the fairness of the buyout offer for Altice Europe.

The use of a US legal process known as a 1782 application is becoming more common among disgruntled shareholders and aggrieved parties in mergers and acquisitions.

Altice Europe’s shares have risen to €4.45 in recent weeks but have lagged a broader recovery in telecoms valuations and are down roughly a quarter since the start of the year.

FT : Swelling US stock valuations leave some investors uneasy

Swelling US stock valuations leave some investors uneasy
Low rates have helped offset concerns about equity prices untethering from profits


US stocks are expensive. So expensive by one measure, in fact, that only the dotcom boom saw higher valuations.

Since the election of Joe Biden as US president and the emergence of Covid-19 vaccine breakthroughs, the roughly $41tn market has soared, pulling benchmark stocks indices up to record levels.

But the degree to which stocks prices have peeled away from corporate earnings is the metric that is leaving some investors uneasy. The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, developed by economist Robert Shiller and known as the Cape ratio, climbed to 33.4 at the start of December, according to Deutsche Bank. That puts it above the level of September 1929, on the eve of the Great Depression, and makes the measure nearly double its historic average of 17. 


Only during the technology bubble at the turn of the millennium, when the ratio rose as high as 44.2 in December 1999, did it exceeds current levels.

“There are great expectations built into this market,” said David Donabedian, CIO at CIBC Private Wealth Management. “We are in the seventh inning of Federal Reserve-supported equity markets, ” he said, adding that while the short term outlook remains positive, the Cape ratio is a warning call for the longer term.

Valuations of US stocks have surged as the Federal Reserve and central banks around the globe unleashed a supercharged effort to minimise the financial and economic fallout from the pandemic. The Fed in March cut rates close to zero and in April it pledged to buy government bonds in unlimited amounts, pushing yields on long-term debt down to historic lows.

“Low interest rates and easing monetary policies are the single biggest factors for equity outperformance,” said Mr Donabedian.

Technology stocks have surged 36 per cent this year, outpacing the broader market’s 14 per cent gain. The biggest tech companies — including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google-owner Alphabet and Facebook — now account for 22 per cent of the S&P 500, up from just under 17 per cent at the end of last year.

Above average readings of the Cape ratio will not surprise investors. It has been pointed to by pessimistic money managers for a decade as one reason why stocks have become untethered from corporate earnings. Deutsche Bank noted that since 1991, beyond a period during the financial crisis, the Cape ratio has been above its long-term average. Despite that, the S&P 500 has notched a total return of more than 1,700 per cent in the years since.

FT : How politics trumped investor pragmatism at UniCredit

How politics trumped investor pragmatism at UniCredit
Mustier’s departure reflects tensions playing out the world over from the US presidential election to Brexit

The optics are awful. Italy’s former finance minister, and the member of parliament for the Tuscan city of Siena, is appointed chairman designate of UniCredit, the country’s second-biggest bank. Within a matter of weeks, a respected chief executive is squeezed out of his job amid suggestions that UniCredit should rescue the busted-flush bank, Monte dei Paschi, Siena’s biggest employer.

When the widely-lauded, but apparently obstructive, Jean Pierre Mustier parted ways with UniCredit last week, it looked like the bank was putting Italian interests ahead of those of shareholders. No wonder investors took fright, sending down UniCredit’s stock price by 13 per cent over two days as the news emerged.

The scenario is not unique to Italian finance: it reflects the kind of inward-looking versus outward-looking tensions that are playing out the world over — from the US presidential election to Brexit, as well as in corporate board rooms. Credit Suisse went the opposite direction from UniCredit by choosing António Horta-Osório, a Portuguese banker who has led the UK’s Lloyds bank for a decade, as its next chairman. But it is telling that in Brexit Britain, Mr Horta-Osório will himself be replaced by a Brit.

Such narratives are of course simplistic. In UniCredit’s case, the reality is certainly subtler — although perhaps no more reassuring for investors.

UniCredit has long operated in a difficult domestic market, plagued by bad debts and an anaemic economy even before the tribulations of Covid-19. Seeking to diminish its reliance on Italy, it has cast itself instead as a pan-European lender. Two deeds stand out: the 2005 acquisition of Germany’s HVB; and the 2016 appointment of Mr Mustier, a high-flying French banker keen to redeem his reputation after overseeing a rogue trading incident at Société Générale. They combined explosively last week.

The landmine that produced the blow-up was laid a year ago, when the single-minded CEO announced in a new strategic plan that the bank would “keep working on a project” to set up a holding company in Germany. The idea was not new, conceived earlier as a mechanism to calm German political unease about UniCredit’s pitch to acquire Frankfurt-based Commerzbank.

That deal went nowhere but the idea of establishing a German holding company, centred on the old HVB business, had evidently been kept alive. It would bring one notable benefit: funding costs for issuing debt and regulatory capital through a German entity would be cheaper and more stable than using the core Italian group. Hence the appearance of the holding company project in the strategy document.

But the plan soon began to fester, as UniCredit’s 14-member board (10 Italians, plus Mr Mustier, an Austrian, an Argentine and an Emirati) became increasingly peeved with a move that would dilute the bank’s Italianness.

When chairman designate Pier Carlo Padoan had to choose between a CEO popular with shareholders and a board that Mr Mustier had complained was weak and too narrow-mindedly Italian, he chose the latter.

Despite the optics, this was never really about bailing out Monte dei Paschi di Siena or not. Both Mr Mustier and Mr Padoan insist they had deemed a deal acceptable, though only if there was no capital cost and legal guarantees were in place to protect the new owner.

But it was about how Italian UniCredit should be. In the eyes of Mr Padoan — and the broader board — it was dangerous to countenance a new structure that could have prefigured a wholesale breakaway from the Milan-based group.

For the new chairman, an economist and politician who has spent much of his career at the heart of the European project, the notion of restructuring an Italian bank into one with a German holding company would clash with the essence of eurozone banking union. In particular, it would undermine the central aspiration — still a pipe dream — that, all else being equal, the market should view the debt of an Italian, German or any other eurozone issuer on a par.

By scotching the plan for a German holding company, Mr Padoan has clearly put the political interests of Italo-European idealism ahead of the pragmatic interests of shareholders. To his credit, he is keen to strengthen and further internationalise the board. But as headhunters search for Mr Mustier’s successor, one bet looks safe: the new CEO will be Italian.