"3 SPAC IPOs this week after 2 last week after 276 in Q1 (vs 228 all of last yr vs 170 from 2013 – 2019 combined)" - Goldman Sachs trader John Flood, April 7, 2021
As the calendar turns to April, the words we have lived by for nearly twenty years come to mind. “Higher prices bring out buyers, lower prices bring out sellers - size opens eyes.”Over the last week, it was the size of the losses inflicted on Wall St. banks - all delivered from one SINGLE family office that has caught our attention. Eight days after the Archegos hit - the scared rabbits across the Street have only been able to quantify a $10B to $12B loss, this fact gives the word “insult” new meaning.Of course, the pain inflicted comes after the Robinhood blowup, the Melvin Capital collapse and the Greensill implosion in Europe, all idiosyncratic, NOT. The Nasdaq bulls talk up “one offs” - but the these events are piling up which points to a classic, systemic leverage breaking point. The size and breadth of today’s bull camp incentivizes market participants to downplay encroaching risk.Almost everyone is fully invested and using leverage for more juiced returns. This crowd will go out of their way to tell the bartender it’s only midnight - when a glance toward the watch says it’s half past 2AM. Just think about how long it takes Wall St. banks to come clean to leverage losses. History tells us - the lonely truth will join us one drop at a time.Bull markets never, EVER die of valuation old age, its the leverage blow-up which triggers the deleveraging and takes the madness out of the crowd. Just look at the ARK ETFs, the marginal - over the top buyer is taking the sword as we speak.Every hedge fund compliance officer across the Street is now in search of the next Archegos, and they have as much trust in their prime broker as the lovely Marylin Monroe had in the playboy that was JFK. There are times to take on more risk and other inflection points which whisper into the wise man’s ear, “reach across the velvet and pull some chips off the table.” This is one of them, let the mad mob chase.For much of the last six months we have been in the growth to value camp, pounding the table on the migration of capital running out of Big Tech over to equities in the commodity sector. As most of our long term clients know, we have never been more bullish. Our focus has been on rotation - NOT a drawdown leaking across asset classes. Today, we must make a stand. It’s time to take down risk positions across the board and let the fools chase.The fundamental, bottom line problem with extreme frothy priced assets, any meaningful risk threat will deliver sharp drawdowns. We are far better off raising dry powder to deploy into more attractive price points.
Closing Stock Market SummaryThe S&P 500 (+0.2%) eked out a closing record high on Wednesday in another narrow trading session that reflected consolidation activity. The Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%) finished within 0.1% of their flat lines, while the Russell 2000 underperformed with a 1.6% decline.
One of the bigger headlines today came out of JPMorgan Chase (JPM 154.93, +2.39, +1.6%) CEO Jamie Dimon's annual shareholder letter. Mr. Dimon said that an economic boom could easily run into 2023 but also cautioned about the "the not-unreasonable possibility that an increase in inflation will not be just temporary."
Jamie Dimon is one of the more influential voices in the market, but his words didn't appear to strike much trading conviction today. The cyclical materials (-1.8%) and industrials (-0.4%) sectors finished as laggards, and the 10-yr Treasury note yield was unchanged at 1.65%.
Declining issues also outnumbered advancing issues at the NYSE and Nasdaq, but JPM, Amazon (AMZN 3279.39, +55.57, +1.7%), and the mega-caps within the information technology (+0.5%) and communication services (+0.7%) sectors provided influential support.
The market saw a brief uptick after the FOMC Minutes from the March 16-17 meeting highlighted the known view that it would likely take some more time until substantial further progress toward the Fed's maximum-employment and price-stability goals are realized. This view suggested that the current accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate until the Fed signals otherwise.
Prior to the minutes, Dallas Fed President Kaplan said the Fed can start withdrawing emergency measures once the country has moved on from the pandemic. Note, Mr. Kaplan won't be a voting FOMC participant until 2023.
In other developments, President Biden said he is open to compromising on the $2.3 trillion infrastructure package, consumer credit increased by $27.6 billion in February -- its largest increase since November 2017, and the CDC will reportedly allow U.S. cruises to resume operations by mid-summer with restrictions.
The 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.16%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 92.41. WTI crude futures increased 0.6%, or $0.37, to $59.71/bbl.
Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:
- The February Trade Balance report showed a widening in the deficit to $71.1 billion (consensus -$70.5 billion) from an upwardly revised -$67.8 billion (from -$68.2 billion) in January. The widening was the result of exports being $5.0 billion less than January exports, and imports being $1.7 billion less than January imports.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the impact of the semiconductor shortage was apparent in the $3.4 billion decrease in imports of automotive vehicles, parts, and engines.
- Consumer credit increased by $27.6 bln in February after increasing by an upwardly revised $0.1 bln (from -$1.3 bln) in January. This was the largest monthly increase in consumer credit since November 2017.
- The key takeaway from the report is that revolving credit expanded for only the second time in the last 12 months and was the largest increase in revolving credit since July 2019.
- The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 5.1% following a 2.2% decline in the prior week.
Looking ahead, investors will receive the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report on Thursday.
- Russell 2000 +12.6% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +9.3% YTD
- S&P 500 +8.6% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +6.2% YTD


