FT ; GSK moves to make up ground in vaccine race

GSK moves to make up ground in vaccine race
UK group and France’s Sanofi release trial data of jab showing strong immune response

GlaxoSmithKline is banking that it can come back from behind in the race for a Covid-19 vaccine and play an important role preparing for new pandemics after releasing positive trial data.

The vaccine maker is talking to governments including the UK about creating vaccine manufacturing facilities on their home turf, and is investing heavily in mRNA, the technology behind the successful shots from BioNTech/Pfizer and Moderna. 

GSK has not contributed to any of the first generation of Covid-19 vaccines, after a trial last year with its French partner Sanofi had to be redone because of a dosing mistake. The company chose to provide an adjuvant that boosts the effectiveness of many vaccines to several partners, rather than develop its own shot. 

GSK and Sanofi published data from the second phase 2 trial on Monday that showed a strong immune response from participants of all ages, with people who had recovered from Covid-19 achieving good antibody levels after just one dose. The companies said they aimed for regulatory approval by the end of the year with phase 3 trials starting in the “coming weeks”.

The results come after positive pre-clinical data on GSK’s second generation vaccine with German biotech CureVac was released last week, and as Medicago, its Canadian partner, heads into a phase 3 trial. 

Roger Connor, GSK’s president of vaccines, told the Financial Times the company had “licked its wounds” after the “disappointing” setback. 

Now, he said it can play a big role in the next stage of the pandemic and as Covid-19 becomes an endemic disease. He said the vaccine with Sanofi looks particularly promising as a booster, and CureVac’s mRNA vaccine could target several variants at once. 

“People will see that we haven’t been a frontrunner, however, we are still in this race,” he added. 

The study results are also a boost to Sanofi, which was the second-largest vaccine maker by sales before the pandemic after GSK, but fell behind last year in the race to develop Covid-19 vaccines. It also has another jab under development based on mRNA technology.

Sanofi’s failure to bring a Covid-19 vaccine to market has been the subject of much debate in France because critics see it is a symbol of the country’s scientific decline. The French vaccination campaign got off to a slow start but has since accelerated to put it in the middle of the pack in the EU in terms of doses administered by population, but behind Germany, Italy, and Spain, according to our World in Data.

GSK is under pressure from investors to show it is bolstering its pipeline, ahead of spinning off its consumer division next year. Hedge fund Elliott Management has taken a multibillion-pound stake and is pushing for change. The company plans to reveal what the remaining business, combining drugs and vaccines, will look like at an investor day in June. 

Connor said GSK’s vaccine business is a “crown jewel” that has been under-appreciated, increasing revenue by 50 per cent and doubling profit in the past four years.

Growth has been driven by products such as its Shingrix shot for older adults and he pointed to a potential first vaccine for RSV, a common respiratory disease, as a possible success in the pipeline.

As some analysts float splitting vaccines from the pharma business, Connor argued he works closely with Hal Barron, GSK’s head of research and development, and the businesses have synergies because of the emerging science on the immune system. 

The pandemic has catapulted new smaller players including Moderna, BioNTech and Novavax into the ranks of the top vaccine makers. While supply is constrained this year, the companies with approved vaccines are dramatically expanding production for 2022 and beyond, which some analysts think will create a crowded market.

But Connor said GSK still has the “strongest technology portfolio in the industry”, which is attracting interest from governments looking to prepare for future pandemics by investing in R&D and production capacity. He said while mRNA is an “exciting platform”, there are many diseases where it is not likely to work and so it is vital to have other options.

“We’re in a strategic inflection point as the vaccines industry,” he said. “Awareness of vaccination is growing, which can only grow market opportunity, [and] the technologies are accelerating at a pace we never thought could happen.”

FT : Foxconn the carmaker? Disruption in the era of electric vehicles

Foxconn the carmaker? Disruption in the era of electric vehicles
The Apple iPhone maker is spearheading an assault by electronics groups on the auto industry

Foxconn does not normally care too much about style. Even its investor conferences are held at the drab concrete-block building that houses the Apple supplier’s headquarters in an industrial suburb of Taipei. But in March, the world’s largest contract electronics manufacturer put on a real show: hosting 500 executives at a chic event space in a historic factory building in the Taiwan capital.

The showpiece on stage was not the latest smartphone model but a gleaming steel and rubber prototype of a car chassis. It was the star of the first members’ meeting of MIH, an industry alliance founded by Foxconn to offer a complete software and hardware platform for making electric cars. And it was a statement of intent: the company that has been making your iPhone for more than a decade is now ready to make your car as well.

The advent of electric vehicles is turning the structure and inner workings of cars upside down. In the process, it is creating a much stronger fusion between two of the world’s biggest industries — autos and electronics.

Young Liu, Foxconn’s chair, says that has given the company — with its experience of shorter product cycles and overall speed — a clear advantage. He argues that carmakers’ “just in time” business models and the way they manage suppliers are outdated and have to change. “We would like to bring this change to the auto industry,” he adds.

In a matter of just months, Foxconn has assembled more than 1,200 member companies in MIH, from software giants like Arm to auto suppliers like German plastics parts maker Konzelmann. It has also set up joint ventures with Chinese and Taiwanese carmakers, is working on a partnership with Stellantis, the car group formed by the merger of FCA and PSA, has a co-operation agreement with Chinese electric vehicle company Byton and signed a deal to manufacture for US electric vehicle designer Fisker from late 2023.

The push by Apple’s largest supplier into electric vehicle manufacturing could also make it easier for Apple, its largest customer, to enter the car market.

The company has said little so far about where it intends to manufacture those electric cars. Foxconn and Fisker say they will start manufacturing in the US, where several locations, including Foxconn’s sprawling complex in Wisconsin, are under consideration. Beyond that, the company could retool some of its manufacturing capacity in China, where it still employs close to 1m people.

Foxconn is spearheading an entire class of electronics companies vying for a role in the carmaking industry. Pegatron, another of the Taiwanese companies that began life making iPhones, is now assembling electric cars for Tesla. Delta Electronics, a Taiwanese manufacturer of a wide range of power electronics components, makes EV charging modules and powertrains — the components that convert the engine’s power into movement.


Their push into the automotive supply chain heralds a turning point in industrial history: the integration of two of the world’s largest industries — car manufacturing and electronics — which will both change beyond recognition.

A growing number of countries have set dates for phasing out petrol and diesel fuel cars, making the rise of the electric vehicle inevitable. And although EVs look similar from the outside and perform a similar function for consumers, they are completely different on the inside, leaving traditional carmakers with a stark choice: either rapidly acquire new capabilities in electrical engineering and software or retreat from manufacturing. The electronics companies targeting the automotive supply chain, meanwhile, need to pick up new mechanical capabilities and entirely different safety concepts.

The traditional approach to building cars requires co-operation between suppliers in integrating automotive parts from an early stage of development. That works when the vehicle is mainly a chunk of hardware where the engine is the most important component.

But, says Zhou Lei, a partner at Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting in Tokyo, that process will be too expensive and will consume too much time to be effective when the industry shifts to autonomous electric vehicles. If an internal combustion engine is mostly made up of hardware today, then software and content such as in-car entertainment and connected services are expected to account for a majority in battery-powered vehicles, according to the consultancy. 

“The new challenge for traditional carmakers is how they will learn to make use of these suppliers from completely different sectors,” says Zhou. Noting that Tesla’s supply chain is already heavily dependent on Taiwanese groups from various industries, he adds: “Only the suppliers that are cost-competitive will make the cut.”

Agile model
It is not the first time that suppliers have tried to wrest more manufacturing business from the car industry. Magna, a Canadian auto parts maker, has been offering automotive contract manufacturing services — everything from making chassis to complete vehicles — for more than a decade. Aptiv, a company which was once part of US auto supplier Delphi, last year announced it was working on a smart vehicle architecture — a design for structuring such cars.

But the electronics companies pushing into the auto supply chain see an opportunity for much bigger change. Liu, the Foxconn CEO, argues that the automakers’ failure to manage the wild swings in demand during the pandemic — which triggered the current auto chip shortage — proves that the traditional supply chain model is ill-equipped to deal with the requirements of the new, electrical, age.

Comparing Foxconn with a traditional auto supplier, Liu says: “Speed is our major advantage competing with Magna. Magna has been doing this business for many many years. They are doing this the traditional way. They also have a traditional supply chain set-up. That is why we think we have an advantage, we don’t have the legacy.”

Liu hopes that the lessons from the chip shortage may convince automakers to work with Foxconn, a company with experience of managing an entire vertically-integrated supply chain, rather than insisting that everything has to run through traditional automotive suppliers.

“MIH could be a major bridge between the tech and automotive manufacturing worlds,” says Steve Taylor, head of business development at Fisita, the global automotive engineers’ body. He describes the auto sector as “an industry dominated by mechanical engineers, who spend many hours physically crashing and stressing prototype vehicles”.

The recalibration of the two industries is set to bring disruption on a grand scale. The electronics industry was valued at an estimated $2.2tn last year and employs up to 18m people according to the International Labour Organization. The revenues of the carmakers alone were $2,2tn in 2019, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, and the industry employed close to 14m people in 2017, according to the UN Industrial Development Organization.


The two sectors could not be more different. Historically, the car industry has been driven by mechanical capabilities. Its production cycles are several years long and its products have been highly customised to appeal to consumers ranging from families to wealthy race car lovers. By contrast large parts of the electronics industry, such as the consumer segment which Foxconn comes from, are increasingly commoditised and churn out new models every few months.

In addition to high safety and reliability standards, Japanese carmakers have long argued that the art of manufacturing vehicles cannot be easily replicated by new entrants because it involves a complex process of tailoring each of the 30,000 components inside a car to function seamlessly. Known as suriawase or tuning technology, the high-precision manufacturing sets cars apart from smartphones and laptops that can be assembled by putting parts together in the same way. 

That is changing. “The number of components is expected to decline from 30,000 in an internal combustion engine car to 20,000 in an electric vehicle,” says Akihiko Shido, chair of Yorozu, a parts supplier for Nissan. “If there are fewer components and there is no need for tailoring them, the entry barrier will be lower and we can expect new players to come in.” 

Skateboard-like architecture
Industry experts say two big trends are set to transform the auto industry: the different form and structure of EV components, which simplify car design; and vehicles’ growing computing content, which requires a consolidation of functions that have traditionally been scattered among different suppliers.

“The main part under the hood is the battery. Due to its size and weight, it makes sense to put it as low as possible to the bottom of the car for stability purposes and the driving experience,” says Michael Schallehn, a partner in the Silicon Valley office of Bain & Company, the consultancy. “The other factor is that the electric motor is super small and closer to the wheels. So that allows you to put the drivetrain [the components that drive the wheels] and the chassis very low into the car and dedicate the rest of the space to the passengers.”

This structure has given rise to the development of a skateboard-like architecture, a standard flat bottom structure containing all the key components which can be easily modified for different models. “If you fast-forward that trend, it takes a lot of the complexity away from the established automotive supply chain,” Schallehn says.

He adds that the evolution of in-car computing, from infotainment systems and the dashboard to today when they cover every automotive function, has made integration more pressing. This will become even more urgent when the industry moves to self-driving vehicles that rely on software that needs to be continually updated. This, says Schallehn, could make it beneficial to have all software development in the hands of one producer rather than a smattering of suppliers, as it is now.

Both the carmakers and their leading parts suppliers such as Bosch, Continental or GKN are keenly aware of the challenge. As early as 2015, Continental acquired the automotive business of Finnish software company Elektrobit Corporation, for €600m, and later bought Israeli cyber security company Argus for $430m in a 2017 deal that helped it beef up its software capabilities with the addition of hundreds of engineers.

Arno Antlitz, Volkswagen’s chief financial officer and head of IT, says the company will increasingly develop its own software, as part of a $30bn effort to bring more technology in-house. 

“We are also looking into more knowhow in terms of how we integrate software and chip design,” he adds. “Moving into electric vehicles, it becomes even more important. You have fewer chips but [they are] more powerful.”


Safety barriers
At the same time as carmakers and their traditional suppliers are racing to acquire electronics capabilities, the electronics groups pushing into the supply chain are grappling with skills traditionally outside their sector.

Analysts and executives say the biggest barrier to entry for electronics companies are the much stricter safety standards in the car industry. “The zero defect concept is very difficult for an electronics company to comprehend,” says Yancey Hai, chair of Delta Electronics. “It is OK to crash this computer — you can reboot it. For cars, no way.” 

Vital for safety is the metal case that encloses the electric motor. “The motor swings very fast, with something like 10,000 rotations per minute, so it is very hot, and you have oil within the case to cool it down,” says Hai. “This case needs to be very strong and there cannot be any leakage. The difficulty is [that] the car is moving all the time. It is not like a computer. So a screw could loosen or there could be a crack at the fringes. And the worst thing is that the car would catch fire.”

The casings for Delta’s electric motors are made by an outside supplier. The company is interested in bringing that process in-house, either by buying the supplier or other companies with strong mechanical capabilities, says Hai. “We are good at power components, but for the EV there are also quite a few mechanical parts, and we are not really good at that.”

Delta is also trying to combine individual components that it manufactures such as power converters and motors into integrated power and control units. The goal is to no longer sell to other suppliers but directly to the carmakers themselves — a move which would, if successful, lift it to the same level as the likes Bosch or Continental.

Larger shifts are already under way. The internal combustion engine’s eventual disappearance means that carmakers are set to lose the key area where their design and engineering has been distinguishing itself for decades. With most of the other components of the traditional car already outsourced, some industry experts argue this development will eventually relegate carmakers to looking after brand management and customer service.

Several carmakers, such as VW and Volvo, have come up with their own electric vehicle platform architecture — a move aimed at defending their territory against attacks from outsiders such as Foxconn. Others, like General Motors and Honda, are set to share EV platforms to minimise the financial burden of developing such structures.

Experts believe any transition will stretch long into the future, requiring a strong financial commitment and persistence from would-be entrants such as Foxconn.

“One thing to keep in mind is just the sheer scale of manufacturing that is required in order to produce cars. A substantial car plant today can produce a few hundred thousand units, and overall the [annual] car market is between 90m and 100m. You need to have [many] plants in order to supply that volume,” says Schallehn.

“Shipping cars is expensive, and you cannot shift production around as easily as you would with smartphones or with semiconductors, so you need many plants around the globe. Also, large, large tariffs already exist on cars,” he adds. “Just entering this market and gaining a meaningful production share is very, very hard and requires some time.”

FT : Large-cap US stocks with high ETF ownership have underperformed

Large-cap US stocks with high ETF ownership have underperformed
Finding could support value investor view that rise of ETFs is just the ‘madness of crowds’

Large-cap US stocks favoured by exchange traded funds have underperformed the wider market in recent years, raising fears that “crowding” in popular companies is damaging returns.

Analysis of the constituents of the S&P 100 by Vincent Deluard, global macro strategist at StoneX, a New York-based brokerage, found that since 2018 the stocks most owned by ETFs have tended to perform worse that those more lightly held by such funds.

Moreover, this negative correlation “has been getting stronger in the past three years”, Deluard said, “which I find interesting and possibly consistent with the view that a high ETF ownership depresses future returns by pushing up valuations”.

If that thesis is correct, then “the best opportunities to compound wealth should therefore be found outside of popular funds and indices,” he added.

Deluard’s research adds some credence to the arguments of some value investors that the rise of ETFs is just the latest example of “the madness of crowds” and that price-insensitive index funds create “passive bubbles” by piling into the same momentum-driven stocks, only for these bubbles to then burst.

The booming global ETF industry has seen its assets almost double to $9tn since the end of 2018, according to figures from consultancy ETFGI, with the bulk of this money both in the US and in equities.

Simultaneously, there has been a partial shift from broad market capitalisation-weighted ETFs — which pump money into every stock in an index in line with its pre-existing size — to narrowly focused thematic ETFs and those investing on the basis of environmental, social and governance factors.

The assets of thematic ETFs have tripled since the end of 2018 to $382bn, according to ETFGI, while those of ESG ETFs have risen ninefold to $246bn over the same period.

This has fed suggestions that ETFs have evolved from attempting to passively reflect stock markets to actively shaping them, distorting prices of particular companies as an ever larger share of money flows into favoured “ETF darling” stocks.

However, the data from StoneX suggests that the opposite may be happening, with unfavoured stocks seeing stronger gains.

Deluard found that ETFs’ share of ownership ranges from 4.1 per cent to 11.2 per cent for the 100 largest US stocks.


The 10 stocks most lightly owned by ETFs include five that have more than doubled investors’ money over the past three years: Morgan Stanley, T-Mobile US, Deere & Co, Amazon and Tesla, the latter with an outsized 820 per cent total return.

Apple, Alphabet and Facebook are in the same quadrant.

In contrast, the stocks most favoured by ETFs include a disproportionate number of weak performers, such as Gilead Sciences, Chevron, ExxonMobil, Intel and 3M, alongside a smaller number of strong performers such as chip designers Texas Instruments, Qualcomm and Lam Research.

Deluard played down the importance of his findings to some degree, saying the negative correlation between the level of ETF ownership and performance was statistically “weak” and that relative sector performance “has been the main driver” of returns.

Although there has been high profile coverage of some tech ETFs, the ETF industry as a whole tends to be underweight technology stocks, something he attributes to a meaningful block of stock typically being locked up in founders’ stakes and employee ownership, leaving less for outside investors.

Similarly, despite the rise of ESG ETFs, the industry at large is still overweight oil companies such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, which are favoured by value and dividend ETFs.

Comparable analysis Deluard conducted into the 2012-2018 period found a weaker, though still negative, link between ETF ownership and performance.

Nevertheless, even if his findings can be attributed to a statistical quirk, there is at least no evidence that rising ETF ownership is distorting the market by pushing up the prices of ETF darlings at the expense of unloved and overlooked stocks.

Deluard does not, though, rule out the possibility ETFs might be pushing up prices of small or mid-cap stocks that are less able to absorb strong ETF inflows, such as those in popular fields like gold miners or cyber security companies.

“Passive distortions are likely much greater for small caps whose limited float can be overwhelmed by index funds’ relentless buying,” he said.

Peter Sleep, senior portfolio manager at 7 Investment Management, cautioned that Deluard’s findings could vary somewhat if they were based on free-float market capitalisation, omitting founders’ stakes from the calculation.

On this basis, ETFs would own a higher percentage of technology companies’ shares, reducing the tendency for lightly held shares to have performed better.

Overall, though, Sleep welcomed the findings saying “I think it’s a good thing. You often hear people say that the market is only going up because of ETFs,” an argument the analysis undermines.

Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual fund research at CFRA Research, said the findings ran counter to what he would have expected, and possibly signified ETF darling stocks first witness an unsustainable rise, followed by a reversion to the mean.

“There have been two narratives out there,” he said. “One is that too much money is going into ETFs and thus they are driving the car, and stock prices are being dragged along with them. This seems to disprove that,” Rosenbluth said.

“The second is that people will pile out of these [ETF darling] securities and the stocks will fall.”

FT : JD.com’s logistics arm seeks to raise up to $3.4bn in Hong Kong IPO

JD.com’s logistics arm seeks to raise up to $3.4bn in Hong Kong IPO
Unit of Chinese ecommerce group looks to go public after online shopping booms during pandemic

JD Logistics, the delivery unit of Chinese ecommerce group JD.com, will seek to raise up to $3.4bn in what would be one of Hong Kong’s largest initial public offerings this year.

The company’s decision to list follows a boom in online shopping during the coronavirus pandemic. But a tougher regulatory environment for Chinese technology groups and a recent fall in the shares of SF Holding, one of JD Logistics’ largest competitors, pushed the company’s proposed IPO price down by about a quarter, according to a person close to the deal.

JD Logistics will sell 609.2m shares at HK$39.36-HK$43.36 ($5.07-$5.58) each. The final price will be set on Friday and the shares are expected to start trading on May 28, according to terms of the deal seen by the Financial Times.

The IPO would be the second largest in the city this year after Kuaishou, a Chinese viral video app, raised $5.4bn in February, and would be the third blockbuster listing by JD.com in Hong Kong in the past year. JD Health, which sells pharmaceutical and healthcare services online, completed a $4bn IPO in December and JD.com carried out its own secondary listing in the territory last June, which raised a similar amount.

Hong Kong has benefited from a flood of high-profile listings by Chinese technology companies in recent months and has hosted more than $20bn of IPOs this year, according to data from Bloomberg.

JD.com created its logistics and delivery arm in 2007 and spun it out into a standalone unit a decade later. The company operates more than 900 warehouses in China and provides delivery and warehousing services to third parties.

But the group is among those under pressure as China increases scrutiny of its largest internet groups. Last month, officials told 13 of the country’s biggest tech companies, including fintech subsidiaries of JD.com, Tencent and ByteDance, to “rectify prominent problems” on their platforms. The push was seen as a sign that regulatory focus on the sector was spreading beyond Jack Ma’s Ant Group, after the $37bn IPO of the fintech company was scuppered last November.

Separately, shares in SF Holding, China’s largest listed delivery company, fell sharply last month after a quarterly loss rattled investors and prompted scrutiny over the high valuations placed on Chinese companies.

“Competition in China’s logistics space is fierce, especially after [Indonesian company] J&T Express entered the market, which has had an impact on other logistics companies’ performance and will hit JD,” said Li Chengdong of Haitun, an ecommerce think-tank.

JD Logistics was initially the delivery arm of JD.com’s ecommerce site but an increasing portion of its business comes from ferrying packages on behalf of third parties.

Cornerstone investors in the JD Logistics IPO, including technology group SoftBank’s Vision Fund, Temasek Holdings, Singapore’s state-backed investment company, and investment firms Tiger Global and Blackstone have subscribed to about $1.5bn of the shares, according to the terms of the deal.

Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International are the joint sponsors for the listing.

FT : Greece sets tone for Europe’s summer travel

Greece sets tone for Europe’s summer travel
Planned EU ‘digital green certificate’ to embed national schemes already under way

Summer travel
While the EU is ironing out the details of a digital platform aimed at simplifying travel this summer, countries including Greece and Portugal already have national systems up and running, write Eleni Varvitsioti in Athens and Valentina Pop in Brussels.

Greece was among the first EU countries to formally welcome foreign visitors last week, as it seeks to double the revenues of its tourism industry, a vital sector that has been heavily hit since the pandemic brought travelling to a halt.

Tourists arriving in Greece no longer have to quarantine if they provide proof that they have been fully vaccinated (including with Russia’s vaccine), a negative Covid-19 test or documentation that shows they have recovered from the virus. 

Since the EU-wide digital green certificate (nothing to do with energy consumption on appliances) that will incorporate national systems is not ready yet, individual member states are putting their own systems in place. 

What is the EU’s digital green certificate?

  • Digital proof valid in all EU countries that a person has tested negative, was vaccinated or has recovered from Covid-19

  • Format is a QR code in the national language and in English

EU affairs ministers last week gave their green light to the scheme, but final details are still being ironed out, with some countries taking part in pilot trials aiming to have the final system set up by the end of June. 

Meanwhile, negotiators from the European parliament, commission and member states are seeking to thrash out a deal on the final details of the certificates. Last week, one of the sticking points was the parliament’s insistence that Covid-19 tests should be free to avoid adding hundreds of euros to the cost of family vacations. The price of a Covid-19 test ranges from zero in France to about €200 in Finland.

Visitors arriving in Greece have to declare their contact information and final destination in electronic form so they can be traced if needed. 

“Greece has an internal green pass operational already and will be there from day one, June 1, participating in this important European achievement,” tourism minister Harry Theoharis told Europe Express.

Over the past weekend, the number of arrivals at Greece’s 14 regional and national airports was 23,455, according to the Ministry of Tourism, showing signs that the country’s most profitable industry is gearing for a comeback. 

Last year, the number of visitors to Greece was down roughly 80 per cent to 7.4m, from a record 34m in 2019. Greece’s finance ministry is hoping to reach about half its pre-pandemic tourism revenues in order to keep the country’s budget on track. 

Given how important tourism is for a swath of European economies, other capitals will be watching early experiments in re-opening very intently.

(ZH) Gundlach Warns Bitcoin Has Become "Poster Child" For "Speculative Fever" Gr

Gundlach Warns Bitcoin Has Become "Poster Child" For "Speculative Fever" Gripping Markets

It seems DoubleLine's Jeffrey Gundlach has had a change of heart regarding bitcoin. And while the cryptocurrency's spectacular rise has mostly converted skeptics into believers (or reluctant investors inspired by FOMO), for Gundlach, it's the other way around. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, the billionaire investor, who once said crypto could be a hedge against irresponsible monetary debasement by central banks, now fears the rally has gotten out of hand.

As bitcoin bounces back from its Elon Musk-inspired dip, Gundlach told Yahoo Finance that bitcoin and crypto is the "poster child" for out-of-control speculation in contemporary markets.
According to Gundlach, the founder and CEO of $135 billion DoubleLine Capital, crypto units have become "objects of speculation, and had a lot to do, again with the government money."
The investor told Yahoo Finance in an interview that some investors "are just playing with this funny money. And when you give people money that don't need it, which, unfortunately, we've been doing a lot, they feel like they're playing with the house's money."
He added: "So it actually does resemble a casino to them psychologically."
Gundlach was once "really bullish" on bitcoin when it was trading at lower levels. But at current prices, bitcoin and dogecoin are putting the dot-com bubble to shame.
However, "all of a sudden it blew right through $15,000, and all the sudden it was $23,000, and that's what I turned a neutral on it, too early obviously, because it's now double that. It was nearly triple that."
Gundlach added the big swings in the digital currency are "based upon speculative fever" punctuated by Musk's surprising U-turn this week.
"It's almost like every era of really highly valued markets — after they've run a lot — has some sort of a poster child if you will," Gundlach told Yahoo Finance. "It was like some of the crazy dot-coms that had no revenue that were coming to market very successfully in the year 1999. Here, it's I think it's really these cryptos."
Though Treasury yields have mostly held within recent ranges, Gundlach advised that he's keeping a close eye on long-term rates.
The 61-year-old investor added that he always looks for "things that are sustained trends to get out of hand, and then quietly, without a lot of people talking about it, they roll over. It's a sign that risk would be increasing, and I'm feeling that the markets more at risk now than it was thanks to the higher interest rates."
Gundlach believes "we're one really bad day away from going to a new high yield on the 30-year" Treasury bond, where yields have been creeping up in the face of the recovery. "I think that that's something to watch out for as a risk factor."
Compared with other frothy assets, bitcoin might have more durability than the Nasdaq, which is already starting to sink while tech stocks including many stocks held by Cathie Wood's ARK funds stumble. The drop in the Nasdaq in recent weeks is just the first sign that the air is coming out of the speculative bubble as markets grow increasingly skeptical of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's assurances that inflation will be "transitory" and that the central bank isn't even discussing pulling back its monetary policy. Gundlach has previously insisted that the Fed is "guessing" about inflation, and that the market reckoning won't be delayed for much longer.

WSJ : AT&T in Talks to Combine Media Assets, Including CNN, With Discovery

AT&T in Talks to Combine Media Assets, Including CNN, With Discovery
Deal would continue consolidation in media business buffeted by cord-cutting and streaming

AT&T Inc. T 0.09% is in talks to combine a big portfolio of media assets, including CNN, with Discovery Inc., DISCB -1.14% according to people familiar with the matter, a deal that would mark a major strategy shift for the telecom giant as the traditional TV business faces prolonged pressure.

The talks, which cover CNN and other parts of AT&T’s WarnerMedia division, including the TNT and TBS cable channels, are advanced, and an agreement could be reached by Monday, the people said. Should there be a deal, AT&T shareholders would own a big stake in the new entity, some of the people said. The people cautioned that a deal isn’t done yet and the talks could still fall apart. Other details of the potential transaction couldn’t be learned.

A deal between WarnerMedia and Discovery, whose portfolio includes its namesake network and HGTV, would further consolidate a media business buffeted by cord-cutting and competition from streaming video.

The talks signal a major pullback by AT&T, which placed a massive bet on media with its 2018 acquisition of Time Warner Inc. for around $81 billion. That deal made it the world’s most indebted nonfinancial company.

Bloomberg earlier reported that AT&T was in talks to combine media assets with Discovery.

>>> Weekend Papers Summary

Weekend Papers Summary

NEW YORK TIMES
Saturday
• Violence between Israelis and Palestinians continues to increase, with deadly clashes convulsing the occupied West Bank and anti-Israeli protests erupting along Israel’s borders with Arab neighbors Jordan and Lebanon.
• Across the country, businesses and individuals are scrambling to make sense of the abrupt change in federal mask guidelines, which said fully vaccinated people could safely go most places, indoors or outdoors without covering up; related story says the guidance contrasts with the views of many epidemiologists, 80 percent of whom surveyed by the Times said they thought Americans would need to wear masks in public indoor places for at least another year.
• Virginia, Arkansas, Florida, and Maryland are among at least 38 states that have introduced during the past six months bills to protect people’s data privacy, regulate speech policies, and encourage tech competition, a drastic escalation from past years.
• As India battles a horrific surge of the coronavirus, most nearby countries have sealed their borders, and several that had been counting on Indian-made vaccines are pleading for them with China and Russia instead.
• The US government has long run cyberattack war games, but the Colonial Pipeline attack—carried out by a criminal extortion ring and not a hostile state actor, with the goal of holding corporate data for ransom—didn’t fit the traditional mold.
• Britain’s Serious Fraud Office is investigating suspected fraud and money laundering in Sanjeev Gupta’s global metals empire, which ballooned in recent years with the aid of billions in financing from failed firm Greensill Capital.

Sunday
• With violence in Israel and the Palestinian territories back in the news, divisions between the leadership of the Democratic Party and the activist wing have burst into public view, with the latter seeing the conflict as a racial justice issue.
• New voting laws and bills put forward by Republican-controlled legislatures seek new penalties, elevated criminal classifications, and five-figure fines for state and local election officials who make mistakes, errors, or oversteps at the polls.
• As Covid-19 ravages Brazil, experts are working to understand a disturbing trend in which the virus appears to be killing babies and small children at an unusually high rate—so far 832 children five and under have died.
• Only 0.3 percent of the Covid vaccine doses administered globally have been given in the 29 poorest countries, home to about nine percent of the world’s population, but vaccine manufacturers say that will change as they expand production lines.
• Four women who have accused New York governor Andrew Cuomo of sexual harassment received subpoenas to testify under oath, a sign the state attorney general’s investigation into Cuomo’s behavior has entered a critical new phase.
• The University of California will not take SAT and ACT scores into account in admissions or scholarship decisions for its system of 10 schools, which include some of the nation’s most sought-after campuses, after a lawsuit brought by students.

WALL STREET JOURNAL
Weekend
• Front page story reports “The US IPO market, unstoppable for nearly a year, has hit a speed bump—with inflation fears weighing on stocks, investors have shifted away from technology shares, initial public offerings and SPACs.”
• American companies began to rethink their requirements for face masks after federal health regulators relaxed their guidelines this week, with WMT and COST announcing they will no longer require vaccinated workers and shoppers to wear masks.
• DarkSide, the criminal group linked to the cyberattack that recently disrupted US gasoline deliveries, has told hacking associates that it is shutting down after losing access to the infrastructure it uses to run its operation, according to security firms FireEye and Intel 471.
• The UK’s plans to cast off almost all public-health restrictions next month are in peril after a highly contagious coronavirus variant first identified in India sparked new clusters of Covid-19, highlighting the risk of outbreaks even in vaccinated countries.
• Labor shortages and production bottlenecks are weighing down companies as the economy begins to surge, driving up demand for a range of goods, leaving many companies that stand to benefit unable to keep up.
• On the hunt for tax cheats, the Internal Revenue Service is winning court battles to force cryptocurrency exchanges to reveal their customers—big unreported profits on bitcoin, ether, or dogecoin could create problems for many taxpayers.
• Credit cards, auto loans, and other personal loans are growing easier to come by, more than a year into a pandemic that spooked lenders and caused them to tighten lending standards significantly.
• Higher commodity prices are delivering economic windfalls to countries such as Australia and Chile that supply metals vital to the global recovery from the pandemic, though the boom could still mask problems.
• H.O.T.S.: Hydrogen is a more feasible green power source for the aviation world than electric batteries, but deploying it quickly will be difficult; The question isn’t why retail sales missed expectations in April, but how strong they will be in the coming months; Returning demand appears to be creating a supply problem for the hotel industry, and one that is uniquely acute for ABNB.

FINANCIAL TIMES
Weekend
• An escalation of violence in the West Bank, which Israel has occupied since the 1967 war and which is home to hundreds of thousands of settlers, would add a dangerous dynamic to the conflict, as would more violence between Jews and Arabs on Israeli streets.
• Cities across Japan are cancelling plans to host athletes before the Tokyo Olympics, leaving competitors with little chance to acclimate and threatening to distort competition at the world’s biggest sporting event.
• Big Read story on inflation reports “Central banks say rising prices are a temporary phenomenon and insist they will not rush to unwind stimulus measures, but new consumer figures give investors a signal of the risks that could lie ahead.”
• China’s market regulator expanded scrutiny of the country’s ride-hailing sector, warning Didi Chuxing and nine other companies against price fixing and monopolizing user data.
• Lex Column: Marex Spectron hopes to cash in on renewed demand for raw materials, regardless of whether the market is seeing a new commodity supercycle or not; An upbeat revenue forecast from AAPL would once have been enough to send Foxconn shares on a rally—but the company must now pull its own weight; Global birthrates are down, but demand for fertility help has not disappeared.
• Comment: Under the Biden administration the US is shifting form leading to supporting in the Middle East, says Martin Indyk—but whether Washington’s pivot can survive the new Israeli-Palestinian crisis remains an open question.

NEW YORK POST
Saturday
• Unions and retail chains are at odds over the CDC face mask guidance, with the Retail, Wholesale, and Department Store Union saying people who work in public facing jobs at supermarkets and other retailers will still need to be protected.
Sunday
• + F: Henry Ford’s great-great granddaughter, Alexandra Ford English, 33, who has an MBA from Harvard and an undergraduate degree from Stanford, will become the first woman in history to hold a seat on the automaker’s board.
• So-called green jobs are growing more popular, especially in the New York tri-state area—entering a word such as “environmental” into the job search engine at Indeed.com will return almost 270,000 results, with a wide range of job titles.