WSJ : TikTok Tops 1 Billion Monthly Users

TikTok Tops 1 Billion Monthly Users
Video-sharing app has said it plans to let users create longer-form videos

More than 1 billion people use TikTok every month, according to a statement posted on the video-sharing app’s website Monday.

The social-media platform known for the short videos its users make and share is owned by Beijing-based ByteDance Ltd. Content ranges from pranks to people doing dances that sometimes go viral.

“TikTok has become a beloved part of life for people around the world because of the creativity and authenticity of our creators,” the company’s statement said.

TikTok said this summer that it plans to allow users to create longer videos, part of an effort to help its top users make more money.

The social-media platform’s algorithms can drive minors—among its biggest users—to sexual and drug-related content, an analysis by The Wall Street Journal found.

WSJ : Evergrande Worries Help Fuel Selloff at Chinese Developer Sunac

Evergrande Worries Help Fuel Selloff at Chinese Developer Sunac
Investors sold down securities after leaked draft showed Sunac China Holdings unit wants respite from tough government measures

The shares and bonds of another major Chinese property developer have dropped sharply, as investors fretted that the company could run into similar troubles as China Evergrande Group. EGRNF 6.60%

Investors sold down securities from Sunac China Holdings Ltd. 1918 -9.37% over two trading sessions, after a document circulated online showing a Sunac unit asking for government help to ease its liquidity difficulties.

Sunac’s Hong Kong-listed shares fell 9.4% Monday to close at their lowest in more than four years, building on a near-7% decline in the previous trading session.

Its U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds also retreated, with 7% bonds due in July 2025 quoted at about 81 cents on the dollar by late afternoon Monday in Hong Kong, according to Tradeweb. This debt was quoted above 98 cents on the dollar at the start of the month, and as recently as July Sunac was able to raise $500 million of new debt funding from bond investors.

The document, seen by The Wall Street Journal, asked for help from the government in Shaoxing, a city in the eastern province of Zhejiang. It said the local property market had cooled to a freezing point, with home buyers losing their appetite as authorities had imposed curbs on prices, sales and resales, and had slowed their approval of home sales and mortgages.

The document was a draft prepared by a Sunac subsidiary that had yet to be submitted to the government, a person familiar with the matter said. It was prompted by slow official approval of contracts signed by the company and home buyers, which had reduced the cash flow of the Shaoxing company, this person added.

Likewise, Nomura credit analyst Iris Chen wrote in a note to clients that Sunac’s investor-relations team had quickly clarified that it was only an internal draft.

Sunac has double-B credit ratings, toward the top of the “junk” scale, reflecting considerably stronger finances than Evergrande and some of the country’s other highly indebted developers. The two-day selloff underscored how fragile market sentiment had become due to Evergrande’s difficulties and to Beijing’s tough stance on the real-estate market, analysts said.

“Sunac faces difficulties like many of its peers, but the profile is rather resilient. It has been deleveraging for the past two years, aligning with the regulatory direction,” said Chuanyi Zhou, a credit analyst at research firm Lucror Analytics.

It wasn’t surprising to see the risks around Sunac being overblown by investors, Ms. Zhou added, “because the market is very sensitive after the Evergrande woes.”

Last fall, Evergrande’s shares and bonds similarly tumbled after a document circulating online appeared to show its flagship onshore subsidiary pleading with authorities for support. Evergrande said the document was fabricated.

Late Monday in Hong Kong, Sunac said it had bought back and would cancel some bonds due in 2024 with a face value of $33.6 million.

Analysts from debt research firm CreditSights, however, said in a report Monday that they were skeptical about Sunac’s deleveraging. They said by increasing liabilities such as trade payables, the company had been able to simultaneously cut debt and bid aggressively for land.

Analysts say that as debt funding has gotten harder, several Chinese property companies have in effect borrowed more from suppliers, customers or business partners instead.

The news about Sunac’s subsidiary was negative, and the whole sector is likely to suffer from falling presales of unfinished apartments in September, as Evergrande’s troubles prompt buyers to hold off, Ms. Chen at Nomura wrote.

Still, she said Sunac wasn’t a near-term default candidate and its liquidity looked manageable, since it held unrestricted cash of 1.1 times its short-term debt as of mid-2021. Unrestricted cash is money that a business can deploy as it chooses, including for debt repayments, while restricted cash is earmarked for particular purposes—for example, as collateral against a loan.

FT : Natural gas hedge fund Statar suffers $130m hit

Natural gas hedge fund Statar suffers $130m hit
Ron Ozer’s vehicle was one of the world’s top performers last year

A top-performing US hedge fund specialising in natural gas has suffered a large hit to its performance this month in a sign that even commodity experts are struggling to deal with soaring prices.

Miami-based Statar Capital, which manages $1.7bn in assets and is run by Ron Ozer, a former trader at Citadel and DE Shaw, made a hefty gain in the first 10 days of this month, according to a person familiar with its performance. But it suffered a pullback the following week, leaving it down about 7.7 per cent for September before fees, according to documentation seen by the Financial Times.

The reversal in fortunes wiped out gains made earlier in the month and left the fund with a loss of about $130m in the first two and a half weeks of the month. Statar declined to comment.

Natural gas prices have soared in recent months, fuelled by a rebound in demand and by supply constraints, including lower supplies in Europe and increased competition with Asia for liquefied natural gas cargoes. US prices on commodity futures exchange Nymex have more than doubled this year, while UK prices have tripled. That has helped some computer-driven hedge funds that follow market trends to make big gains, but hurt some traders not prepared for such a rise.

Statar, which trades other commodities as well as natural gas, was one of the world’s top-performing hedge funds last year, gaining 59 per cent, according to figures sent to investors. A number of funds, including Pierre Andurand’s Andurand Capital, were able to make big gains in 2020, either by correctly predicting the drop in oil prices early in the year or from exploiting discrepancies in the market.

This year to the end of August, Statar had gained slightly more than 5 per cent after fees, before this month’s volatility.

The exact reasons behind the loss were not immediately clear. US gas prices have moved around sharply and are now up by about 23 per cent this month, while UK prices are up by nearly 50 per cent.

Statar has lost money in European natural gas but made money in US natural gas this year, said one person close to the firm. On occasion in recent months, it has bet that prices would fall, said a person familiar with its positioning. Commodity funds on average are up 16.8 per cent in the first eight months of this year, according to data group HFR.

Despite recent big gains, commodity trading has been tricky for many hedge funds over the past decade or so. Volatile markets and lengthy periods of declining prices have made it difficult for many traders to make money, leading several to shut funds, including Armajaro Asset Management and Astenbeck Capital Management.

The “exodus of risk capital from the commodity markets” has exacerbated temporary market mispricings, while producers increasingly want to hedge, Statar says on its website. “This has provided the best opportunity set for natural gas trading in many years.”

Ozer, who studied at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, joined DE Shaw in 2008 and focused on trading natural gas futures and options, before moving to Citadel to become head portfolio manager for US natural gas. According to Statar’s website, he was promoted after his first year to report directly to the firm’s founder, Ken Griffin.

FT : Grant Thornton/ Patisserie Valerie: underbaked audit

Grant Thornton/ Patisserie Valerie: underbaked audit
The FRC issue its report into the accounting scandal at the British cake shop chain.

Happy Monday to you all – except, perhaps, Grant Thornton.

The auditor this morning was slapped with a £2.3m fine, and ordered to pay an extra £650k of costs, by the Financial Reporting Council over its work on overcooked cake shop Patisserie Valerie between 2015 and 2017. If you don’t remember, the £600m Aim-listed purveyor of pastry delights collapsed into administration in January 2019 after its board, chaired by star entrepreneur Luke Johnson, was notified of some accounting funnies at the company the previous September.

Along with the fine, the FRC released its full report into the scandal, and it makes for pretty eye-opening reading if you’re of the persuasion that a set of signed-off accounts mean a company’s accounts can be implicitly trusted.

The 65-page report is split into four parts covering revenue, cash balances, journals and fixed assets, and we recommend reading through the whole thing if you want to leave your jaw on the floor for the best part of an hour.

Just in case you haven’t got time to read the whole thing, though, we thought we’d share this one delicious crumb, to whet your appetite.

First, here’s the headline summary of this particular issue from the FRC. And, in case you’re wondering, PH stands for “Patisserie Holdings Plc” and GT, for errr, “Grant Thornton”.

PH’s figures showed very large proportions of revenue being received at or around year end, for example 73% of the Group’s entire annual revenue from vouchers from a third party company in FY16 was purportedly received in one payment, on 28 September 2016. This was 11 times the average monthly receipts in preceding months.

And here’s how these large revenue inflows at the end of September — which marked the end of Patisserie Valerie’s accounting year — look in table form:


There’s a few glaring problems here, but the obvious one is that Patisserie Valerie’s wholesale customers had a weird habit of making large orders right before the year end. For instance in 2017, orders from Customer A were responsible for just over half of its wholesale revenues from that customer for the entire year.

To some, that one might be suspicious on its own. For instance, why would a wholesale customer choose to suddenly order a material amount of baked goods, teas and coffees just before Patisserie Valerie’s year-end? Particularly when it made orders in relatively consistent amounts during the rest of the financial year.

But that wasn’t the only questionable part of the transaction. From the report:

These receipts are over 14 times higher than the average monthly receipts from Company A. Further, they are for 217,788 afternoon teas, which ought to have prompted investigation as there were only 124,779 afternoon teas sold through Company A in the rest of FY17, and they are all shown as being for afternoon tea, whereas all earlier Company A receipts had been for a range of different offers.

And what did Grant Thornton make of this? Well, as it turns out, diddly squat:

The documents retained by PH in relation to these payments were for large amounts but contain little or no detail. There is no evidence that GT queried this lack of detail. No documents to support each of the final five receipts were retained on the audit file.

Maybe the team at Grant Thornton also enjoyed afternoon teas as much as Customer A?

But that’s not all, the report goes on:

 . . . One copy Company A invoice dated 2 October 2017 relied on by GT had various errors in the invoice and inconsistencies with other Company A documents, which (given other red flags) should have cast doubt on the provenance of the document and ought to have prompted investigation:

5.24.3.1. The Company A logo is missing from the top of the invoice, and the Company A website address is missing from the bottom of the invoices. These details are present on other Company A invoices;

5.24.3.2. The word “quantity” is spelt incorrectly as “quantiiy”;

5.24.3.3. The postcode for Stonebeach is written as “828 8DT” compared to B28 8DT in other Company A invoices;

and 5.24.3.4. The font and format are different to other Company A invoices.

So not only was one of these invoices issued in October, but it contained multiple other differences — including a typo and a wrong address — compared to other invoices related to the same customer.

A generous interpretation here might be that someone was in a rush issuing this particular invoice, and therefore made a spate of errors in doing so.

The less generous interpretation? Well, we think we’ll leave that unsaid.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • SPNE -7% (lowers guidance)

Other news:

  • ASLN -25.8% (reports new data for ASLAN004)
  • BHVN -6.3% (reports Verdiperstat did not meet primary endpoints)
  • VNRX -6.2% (files for $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering)
  • OPK -4.5% (Opko Health and Pfizer (PFE) announce extension of FDA review of BLA for somatrogon for pediatric growth hormone deficiency)
  • OPAD -1.8% (files for 237,268,350 share common stock offering by selling shareholders)

Analyst comments:

  • ZY -3.1% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • RIDE -2.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
  • NFBK -1.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler)
  • TLIS -1.8% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • ATUS -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse; downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • GCI +3.3%

Select oil/gas related names showing strength:

  • RDS.A +3%, BP +2.5%, HAL +2.5%, SLB +2.3%, TTE +2%, XOM +1.7%, XLE +1.6%, USO +1.6%, OIH +1.4%, . 

Other news:

  • LICY +6.6% (positive Barrons article)
  • ALT +5.5% (positive Barrons article)
  • GGPI +3.7% (Polestar signs agreement to be publicly listed through combination with Gores Guggenheim)
  • EVLO +3.4% (reports Phase 2 clinical data with EDP1815 in psoriasis)
  • XLRN +3.2% (is in advanced talks to be acquired by a large company, according to Bloomberg)
  • NRXP +2.8% (announces improved survival at one year in highly comorbid COVID-19 patients treated with ZYESAMI)
  • SMG +2.7% (positive Barrons article)
  • SNDX +2% (Syndax Pharmaceuticals and Incyte (INCY) to collaborate to develop Axatilimab; Syndax to receive $ 152 million in cash)
  • CIFR +1.8% (files for 42,035,500 share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • BCRX +1.1% (positive Barrons article)

Analyst comments:

  • DSP +4.9% (upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities)
  • BOX +1.9% (upgraded to Mkt Outperform from Mkt Perform at JMP Securities)
  • NATI +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman)
  • BBWI +1.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Atlantic Equities)
  • CPT +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • SNDX +8.2%, ALT +6.8%, GGPI +6.6%, LICY +5.8%, RDS.A +3.5%, GCI +3.3%, XLRN +3.2%, BP +2.9%, TTE +2.8%, SMG +2.7%, MX +2.4%, SUN +2%, HAL +2%, CIFR +1.8%, SLB +1.7%, XLE +1.6%, OIH +1.6%, USO +1.5%, SGEN +1.4%, XOM +1.4%, NVTA +1.1%, BA +0.8%, AMGN +0.8%, MIDD +0.7%, BCRX +0.7%
  • Gapping down:
    • ASLN -24.3%, SPNE -7%, VNRX -6.2%, OPK -5.3%, EVLO -3.6%, OPAD -2.9%, MGY -0.7%, PLL -0.5%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of September 2021

>>> Up
* AUTO1 Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 50 euros
* Dufry Raised to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 55 Swiss francs
* Enea Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 260 kronor
* Ferrexpo Raised to Neutral at Citi
* Securitas Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 160 kronor

>>> Down
* Altice USA Cut to Neutral at New Street Research; PT $42
* Cellnex Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 50 euros
* MorphoSys Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 52 euros

>>> Initiation
* Hutchmed China Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT 753.14 pence
* Universal Music Group Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein

>>> Call