>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of October 2021

>>> UP
* Argo Blockchain ADRs Rated New Buy at Compass Point; PT $21
* Bonava Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 105 kronor
* EasyJet Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 800 pence
* Lufthansa Raised to Hold at Berenberg; PT 6.30 euros
* Mondi Raised to Overweight at Prescient Securities
* Pearson Raised to Hold at Berenberg; PT 590 pence
* Shell Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 1,795 pence
* Skanska Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken; PT 265 kronor
* Veidekke Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 130 kroner

>>> Down
* Hoist Finance Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 33 kronor
* IAG Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 200 pence
* Johnson Matthey Cut to Sell at Panmure Gordon; PT 2,250 pence
* Sydbank Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 236 kroner
* TeamViewer Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 15 euros
* TeamViewer Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 16.50 euros
* Wizz Air Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 5,200 pence

>>> Initiationba
* Aston Martin Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT 2,000 pence
* Atalaya Mining Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 535 pence
* Ipsen Rated New Neutral at Exane; PT 90 euros
* J D Wetherspoon Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 1,220 pence
* Moonpig Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 430 pence
* Naked Wines Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 760 pence
* SCA Rated New Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 150 kronor
* Siegfried Rated New Outperform at Exane; PT 1,000 Swiss francs
* Sixt Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 165 euros

>>> Call
* Hikma Raised at Morgan Stanley, New Deals Add Greater Visibility
* Pearson’s ‘Hard Landing’ Limits Downside, Berenberg Upgrades
* Virbac Guidance Raised Again, Remains Well-Positioned: Jefferies

>>> What to look at today - 20th of October 2021

Asian stocks rose Tuesday as technology shares rallied and the prospect of solid corporate earnings helped counter concerns stemming from elevated inflation. The dollar declined.
MSCI Inc.’s Asia-Pacific equity index was at its highest since late September. Hong Kong outperformed and the city’s gauge of Chinese tech stocks surpassed its 50-day moving average. U.S. and European futures were little changed after U.S. stocks gained, with the Nasdaq 100 leading the way.
Treasury yields declined and a flattening in the yield curve paused. In Australia, the three-year bond yield was lower after the minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting put a dampener on early rate-hike bets.
In China, the focus is on debt-laden China Evergrande Group’s real-estate unit and its coupon payment due on a local bond.
The oil rally paused with prices around multiyear highs. A natural-gas shortage is spurring demand for products like fuel oil and diesel for power generation. Investors are paying close attention to the earnings season to see how higher costs for energy and raw materials are affecting margins.
Bitcoin traded around $62,500. ETF issuer ProShares is preparing to launch its Bitcoin futures fund on the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday.

Nikkei +0.59% Hang Seng +1.25% CSI +1.08% Shanghai +0.74% Shenzen +0.79%

Eur$ 1.1648 CNH 6.4069 CNY 6.4117 JPY 114.17 GBP 1.3772 CHF 0.9210 RUB 71.0975 TRY 9.3518 WTI$ 82.74 Gold 1774.10 BTC 62,400 +1000 ETH 3820 +86

S&P +0.01% Nasdaq +0.01 Eurostoxx +0.08% FTSE +0.04 Dax +0.14% SMI

Macro :
- Bitcoin Bull Tom Lee Says Futures ETF May Attract $50 Billion
- City of London Well-Placed to Thrive Post-Brexit, Johnson Says
- Hedge Funds to Get a New Playground in Commodities: China Today
- EU Seeks to Extend Relaxation of State Aid Rules Beyond ‘21: FT

Keep an eye on :
- ACX GY : Bet-at-Home.com to Temporarily Stop Online Casino in Austria
- BABA US : Alibaba Unveils One of China’s Most Advanced Chips
- BANB SW : Bachem Places 750,000 New Shares at CHF778 per Share
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse in Talks With U.S. to Settle Mozambique Scandal
- BN FP : Danone 3Q Sales Beat Estimates
- DHER GY : Delivery Hero Invests $235M in Berlin-Based Startup Gorillas
- EDF FP : Macron to Announce Six New EPR Nuclear Reactors This Yr: Figaro
- ENTRA NO : Entra 3Q Rental Income Meets Estimates
- ERICB SS : Ericsson 3Q Adjusted Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- G IM : Del Vecchio Investors Pact to Boost Generali Stake to 18%: Sole
- KLED SS : Kungsleden 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- MERY FP :Cellnex Says Share Buyback Program Extended to Oct. 28
- BMPS IM : Italy Didn’t Request Extension for Paschi Sale: Radiocor
- PGHN SW : Partners Group’s KinderCare Learning Files for IPO
- PIA IM : Piaggio, Mahindra in Fray to Supply Electric 3-Wheelers: Mint
- SOW GY : Software AG Boosts FY Adjusted Ebita Margin Forecast
- SOON SW : Sonova Sees Delay in Closing Sennheiser Electronic Unit Deal
- TEL2B SS : Tele2 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- TSCO LN : Tesco Tests Its First Cashierless Store in London
- UNI SM : *UNICAJA PLANS TO INCREASE JOB CUTS TO 2,700: EL ECONOMISTA
- VIRP FP :Virbac Guidance Raised Again, Remains Well-Positioned: Jefferies

FT : HNA creditors rebel against Chinese conglomerate’s restructuring plan

HNA creditors rebel against Chinese conglomerate’s restructuring plan
Collapse is a critical test of Beijing’s handling of ‘too big to fail’ entities

China’s long campaign to contain the fallout from the collapse of conglomerate HNA is facing growing opposition from disgruntled Chinese creditors, according to documents and private social media groups seen by the Financial Times.

Frustrated creditors have threatened to take their complaints about state administrators handling the group’s bankruptcy to the Chinese Communist party’s internal oversight body, in a dispute that could threaten one of the country’s most complicated and globally significant restructurings.

“Our dignity cannot be trampled on! We will never give up,” one claimant said.

The overhaul of HNA, which started as an airline and became a global conglomerate, is a critical test of Beijing’s ability to handle “too big to fail” entities, as the country’s economic planners grapple with worse than expected growth alongside crises stemming from property sector indebtedness and crippling energy shortages.

Beijing’s approach to HNA, which collapsed after it amassed debts of $90bn, has attracted greater scrutiny amid fears over the fate of Evergrande and the fragility of Chinese corporate restructurings. Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property group, missed interest payments last month, sparking protests from domestic investors and rocking global markets.

Tens of thousands of Chinese creditors owed money by Hainan-headquartered HNA have until Wednesday to vote on a proposal to revamp 321 group companies into four new entities, which would hand control of its aviation, airport, financial and commercial units to state and private shareholders.

But the deal, which has been years in the making, has drawn scathing criticism from smaller creditors and former employees who believe that their interests have been disregarded in a rush to close an embarrassing episode for Chinese financial regulators.

“We want the government to see our disagreement and anger and pressure HNA . . . to adjust and redraft a fair proposal,” one creditor told the FT. The individual, who asked not to be identified for personal safety reasons, said their family’s losses from HNA’s collapse totalled more than Rmb2m ($311,000).

The vote planned for Wednesday is the latest twist in the decades-long saga of HNA, a sprawling conglomerate whose top executives had deep political connections, including to Wang Qishan, China’s vice-president and a close ally of President Xi Jinping.

But the company and its affiliates were placed into bankruptcy administration in February as corporate disclosures revealed that billions of dollars of its funds had been used for non-business purposes.

According to documents seen by the FT, across the 321 companies over 64,000 creditors have claimed more than Rmb1.46tn ($227bn) in liabilities. One creditor called for accountability over a lack of supervision of HNA and warned that ordinary people’s “hard-earned” savings and pensions would be sacrificed in exchange for the administrator’s “victory” in completing the restructuring.

“This is a result that the CPC Central Committee and the State Council absolutely do not want to see!” one written complaint said, referring to China’s top leadership bodies. In the complaint, some creditors also alleged misconduct by the administrators and called on the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Communist party’s internal oversight group, to investigate.

HNA could not immediately be reached for comment over the claims made by creditors.

With some HNA creditors fearful of voicing their complaints publicly, social media has emerged as a “fierce battleground” between interest groups, according to one of the creditors.

In strained exchanges in private groups viewed by the FT, creditors complained that the terms under consideration were “heartless” and the administrators were “shameless”. Others said they felt compelled to vote for the plan because it was their only chance to realise returns.

HNA was previously China’s most aggressive international dealmaker, embarking on a global acquisition spree that included stakes in the Hilton hotel chain and the biggest single shareholding in Deutsche Bank.

The group’s downfall gathered pace in 2017 when Beijing clamped down on offshore cash flows and regulators from Bern to Wellington blocked its deals over questions regarding the group’s governance and ownership.

HNA’s chair Chen Feng and chief executive Adam Tan were taken into custody late last month. The grounds for their detention have not been revealed. Co-founder Wang Jian fell to his death in France in 2018.

Analysts see Beijing’s handling of HNA as instructive for a potential Evergrande insolvency.

Betty Wang, a senior China economist at ANZ, said under “the worst-case scenario of an [Evergrande] insolvency, an HNA-style bankruptcy restructuring could be applied”.

“The bottom line — repeatedly highlighted by the [People’s Bank of China] — is to protect individual consumers and investors,” she added.

FT : Alpine attraction: Switzerland is a magnet for family offices

Alpine attraction: Switzerland is a magnet for family offices
Institutions set up to manage the financial assets of rich families have quietly become key investors in financial markets

It used to be said the rich would go from shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations: a domineering patriarch would earn the wealth, his spiritually crushed children would unimaginatively sit on it, and their profligate charges would, in turn, squander it.

And the next decade will see the biggest of these generational wealth transfers in history, from the world’s richest — who are wealthier than any who have gone before them — to their children and grandchildren.

But, today, few of the ultra-wealthy plan to leave their legacies to chance, indolence or folly. In the years since the 2008 global financial crisis — a period of great enrichment for billionaires — a profound shift has been under way in asset management: the rise of the family office.

Family offices — institutions set up to manage the financial assets of rich families or sometimes collections of families — have quietly become key investors in financial markets.

The largest are hard to miss: organisations such as Cascade Investment (managing wealth for billionaire Bill Gates) in the US and the Harald Quandt Family Office (for the family behind German carmaker BMW). French tycoon Bernard Arnault, chief executive of luxury group LVMH, has a family office, as does Italy’s Agnelli industrial clan. But there are many smaller, more low-key organisations that are equally sophisticated and active in the markets.

Some are larger than general asset management companies. They compete with big-name investors for private equity deals, they poach the best banking talent and they are, for the most part, opaque and unregulated.

Operating out of public view remains a hallmark, though perhaps not one that will survive into the future, as the systemic importance of family offices becomes more evident — causing regulators to increase their scrutiny — and as widening inequalities push the world’s super-rich to explain their role in society more fully.

Business historians date the family office to the turn of the last century. Wealth had formerly been based almost entirely on land. But, with the rise of entrepreneurial capitalism in the Victorian era, liquid wealth became more common. And the very richest needed resources to manage it.

The Rockefellers created the template when they set up their family office in 1882. Operating in later years from Suite 5600 in New York’s Rockefeller Center, surrounded by works of art, the family office team managed trusts for the heirs of oil tycoon John D Rockefeller. Still going, it serves dozens of branches of the Rockefeller family and others — 250 in total.

Hundreds of similar organisations were set up over the subsequent decades. But, since the 2008 crisis, this niche financial field has expanded dramatically. In 2008, estimate advisers EY, there were about 1,000 single-family offices worldwide, a number that grew tenfold over the following decade.

“There is an increasing number of [family offices] due to the fact that there is an increasing number of wealthy families,” says Laurent Pellet, head of external asset management at Swiss private bank Lombard Odier. “But the mission of these organisations has really changed in recent years. There has been a huge professionalisation and growing sophistication in what they do.”

Switzerland, thanks to its status as one of the world’s leading private-banking centres, sits at the heart of the family office boom, though it faces competition from London, New York and, increasingly, Hong Kong and Singapore. The wealth management arms at Switzerland’s two biggest banks, UBS and Credit Suisse, have moved towards catering for these new family offices.

The country has become a base for wealthy people from the rest of the world, alongside the family offices of Swiss billionaires. These include the vehicle of the Sandoz family — hoteliers and founders of the eponymous pharmaceuticals company that is now part of Novartis — and Loreda, which manages the wealth of Hansjörg Wyss, a prominent supporter of environmental and scientific causes.

Among the foreign families are Denmark’s Kristiansens, of Lego fame, who run their wealth from the village of Baar in the canton of Zug, through an entity called Kirkbi. Similarly, Austria’s Swarovski family, makers of crystal and glassware, operate Swarovski HNW from the “gold coast” of Lake Zürich. In Geneva, Mirelis Advisors jointly runs the wealth of the Lawis, a Middle East banking dynasty, and the Kadoories, Hong Kong property developers and hoteliers.

Most single-family offices have only a handful of staff — 10 or so is typical — but there are larger operations with more than 150, according to one private banker. Many of the big offices have branches around the world, to keep an eye on international family assets.

The Bertarelli family, former owners of Swiss biotechnology company Serono, which was acquired by Merck in 2007 for $13.3bn, now manage their wealth through Waypoint Capital. The family office, headquartered in Geneva, runs six separate specialist investment managers, focusing on fields as diverse as US life sciences and Swiss property. Waypoint has offices in Jersey, Boston, San Francisco and Luxembourg.

While investment advice remains at the core of any office, many provide their patrons with extensive extra services. They are what a Zurich-based banker calls the “Hollywood aspects”; wealth managers term them “concierge” services and they include diary-keeping, checking children’s school reports and making travel arrangements, right down to ensuring the private jet has the right food on board.

But there are also other serious advisory functions that increasingly are provided in-house, from tax planning to succession. Coaching has become big business, as has high-end relationship therapy — designed to limit family disputes, including when people die.

It is common for big family offices these days to be run like any company, with written rules and just as dispassionately. One adviser describes the two-day annual conference for one wealthy South American family that takes place in an exclusive Zürich hotel. As at a company annual meeting, investment outcomes are pored over in presentations to family members, who attend just like shareholders. There are seminars and advice sessions. The same family spends about $1m a year educating their young children on financial matters.

“There are as many different kinds of family office as there are wealthy families,” says Robert Cielen, European head of Credit Suisse’s international wealth management division. The real focus though, he says, is that many family offices now take a very long-term view about preserving their wealth. “The prime occupation and mandate of the family office remains financial in nature, but [now] it is a multigenerational asset allocation.” Or, as a 2021 report from Goldman Sachs, the US bank, puts it: “We see many family offices looking to acquire similar assets [to] traditional institutions but with a greater capacity to hold in perpetuity.”

Cielen says the biggest two investment trends, driven by that long-term view, have been a shift into private equity and venture investing, and a huge focus on sustainability.

Private equity investing has become so pronounced that many family offices have their own in-house teams to source deals and close transactions. Mousse Partners, for example, which oversees most of the estimated $30.8bn fortune of Alain and Gerard Wertheimer, the brothers behind French fashion house Chanel, has become an active player in the luxury private equity field.

Some might scoff at the super-wealthy’s declared aims to save the planet, but many in private banking say the movement is real. Rockefeller Capital Management, for example, which has a portfolio of $5bn originating from the riches generated by Standard Oil in the 19th century, announced last year it would divest entirely from fossil-fuel holdings. A partner in one prominent Swiss private bank recounts his discomfort at having to tell emissaries from Saudi Aramco, who were visiting Switzerland in 2019 on a road show to drum up interest in the oil giant’s flotation, that none of his wealthiest clients had any interest.

A survey by UBS of family office clients, with SFr225bn ($240bn) under management between them, revealed that, globally, 56 per cent are engaged in sustainable investing. The bank reports a consensus belief that, within five years, about a quarter of portfolios will be focused on environmental, social and governance strategies. In western Europe, the trend is even more marked: 76 per cent of family offices are investing heavily in sustainable products, according to the UBS report.

“Sustainable investing is not just an Instagram thing. I know one family from Europe whose money is originally from oil and gas,” says Cielen. “Now, the second generation has pushed the investment agenda to the point where they are divesting from that. We’re now providing financing for them to acquire a sustainable packaging company.”

Nicole Curti, a partner at Geneva-based wealth adviser Stanhope Capital, describes a younger client base that takes sustainable investing seriously and expects an adviser to be able to talk to them about UN climate goals or philanthropy as easily as about portfolio risk. “There’s a new generation today coming to the fore that, compared with 10 or 15 years ago, has a completely different approach to life . . . in terms of technology, values and expectations,” she says. “Ten years ago, it was all about, how do I make more money? Now, it is all about, how do I use that money?”

The boom in family offices has come at a price, however: a lack of transparency and regulation, combined with increased competition among banks for clients, has generated more hidden risks.

The situation was exposed dramatically this year, with the implosion of Archegos Capital, an organisation that was effectively a hedge fund investing with spectacular leverage in the guise of a family office.

The collapse of Archegos inflicted a heavy cost on the banks: Credit Suisse was hit hardest, with a $5bn loss, while UBS lost $774m. Japan’s Nomura and Morgan Stanley of the US took hits of $2.9bn and $1bn, respectively.

The incident triggered panic in banks’ risk management departments. Both UBS and Credit Suisse have been reviewing all of their relationships with family offices. Many have woken up to the fact that they have little, if any, insight into exactly what the risk positions of family offices are, because there are few, if any, disclosure rules.

Part of the problem has been the extent to which large private banks have sought to juice profits by encouraging some big family office clients to make greater use of the prime brokerage services — a lucrative model championed by both UBS and Credit Suisse. Whether, in the wake of Archegos, it will continue to be so profitable remains to be seen.

Archegos, most private bankers insist, was an extreme outlier. The vast majority of family offices undertake very little trading. One banker described one of his biggest clients as having a “play account” of about $1bn for trading in liquid markets, but said this was a fraction of the value of the family’s overall portfolio.

Still, the Archegos affair has prompted calls for a regulatory review, including from Carolyn Rogers, secretary-general of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, who says disclosure is “an issue”.

Alongside the proliferation of single-family offices there has been a boom in multi-family offices, which are effectively highly specialised asset management firms with a few wealthy family clients. With no single family to answer to, the checks on investment managers are often weaker.

After 14 years working for the private bank of JPMorgan, the US group, Gabriele Gallotti left with the intention of joining a multi-family office. “I did my due diligence, I went around, had a lot of interviews with a lot of family offices, and eventually I decided the only good option was to open my own,” he says. Of the 15 or 16 family offices and investment advisers he saw, Gallotti says, all had what seemed to him to be conflicts of interest or problematic work practices.

The business model of many is broken, he says. “Bankers who come here to me to be interviewed say they want a [pay] package that is equivalent to 60 or even 70 per cent of the revenues they generate. I immediately stop the discussion. You can only do that — and there are lots of places in the market who offer that — if your revenue stream goes above what the family pays you.”

That, says Gallotti, means “kickbacks [from banks getting the office’s business] or running your own parallel funds”. Does that go on? Yes, he says, “a lot”.

Novum, the multi-family office Gallotti set up, has 17 families as clients, with $2.1bn in assets. He does not see any value in expanding further. “Scaleability is not really an option. What we need to focus on is serving the needs of our clients with integrity and having a tailored service for their needs,” he says. “The more clients you have, the harder it is to do that.”

Gallotti is convinced, however, that family offices will only become more dominant in the wealth management world. He says many senior managers are keen, as he was, to leave big banks as increasing regulation and margin pressures squeeze their ability to be creative and serve their clients well. “In the same way we saw in early 2000 people leaving investment banking — in both sales and trading — to set up hedge funds, I think we will see a similar trend now with people moving out into family offices,” he says. “The smart thinkers, the ones that own their clients, they will leave the banks.”

>>> US Close Dow -0.10% S&P +0.34% Nasdaq +0.84% Russell +0.10%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 increased 0.3% on Monday, overcoming an early 0.5% decline for its fourth straight gain. The mega-caps did the heavy lifting and drove the outperformance of the Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) and Russell 2000 (+0.1%) finished closer to their flat lines, with the Dow in the red. 

Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed higher, led by the heavily-weighted consumer discretionary (+1.2%), information technology (+0.9%), and communication services (+0.7%) sectors. Conversely, the utilities (-0.7%), health care (-0.7%), consumer staples (-0.5%), and materials (-0.1%) sectors closed lower. 

The negative start was attributed to softer-than-expected data out of China (Q3 GDP, industrial production, and fixed asset management), a 1.3% m/m decline in U.S. industrial production for September (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%), and higher interest rates as oil prices broke above $83.00/bbl. 

The stock market quickly recouped losses, though, as oil prices and Treasury yields backpedaled from early highs on no specific news. WTI crude futures settled higher by just 0.2%, or $0.18, to $82.44/bbl. The 10-yr yield settled higher by one basis point to 1.58% after flirting with 1.63% intraday. 

The retracement in yields was a supportive factor for the growth stocks, especially the mega-caps, which padded gains in the afternoon while the broader market tracked sideways. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK 246.21, +2.51) rose 1.0%, while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP 155.76, +0.06, +0.04%) closed little changed. 

Apple (AAPL 146.55, +1.71, +1.2%) seemed to provide an additional boost in the mega-cap trade after unveiling a new MacBook Pro, the third generation of AirPods, and a new subscription tier for Apple Music. AAPL shares rose 1.2% after being up 0.3% right before its product event. 

Walt Disney (DIS 171.17, -5.29, -3.0%), however, was an individual drag on the Dow after the stock was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays. The firm expressed caution in the company achieving its long-term streaming subscription guidance. Disney shares fell 3.0%. 

The 2-yr yield increased two basis points to 0.42%. The U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 93.96. 

Reviewing Monday's economic data:

  • Total industrial production decreased 1.3% in September (consensus +0.2%) following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline in August (from +0.4%). The capacity utilization rate dropped to 75.2% ( consensus 76.5%) from a downwardly revised 76.2% in August (from 76.4%).
    • The key takeaway from the report is that industrial production was weak in September due to the effects of Hurricane Ida and the ongoing semiconductor supply shortage.
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index increased to 80 in October (consensus 75) from 76 in September.

Looking ahead, investors will receive Housing Starts and Building Permits for September on Tuesday. 

  • S&P 500 +19.5% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +16.6% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +15.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +14.8% YTD

>>> US After Hours Summary: DLO -7.7% falls on offering, but provides upside gui

After Hours Summary: DLO -7.7% falls on offering, but provides upside guidance; STLD +1.6% higher on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: FNB +3.1%, STLD +1.6%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ETTX +22.5% (announces positive topline results for Phase 3 ATTACK trial), HRMY +13.1% (to join S&P SmallCap 600), TREE +4.1% (to move to the S&P SmallCap 600 from S&P MidCap 400), AIR +2.7% (signs agreement with flydubai to renew Boeing 737NG component support), CALA +2.5% (CALA to acquire two clinical-stage compounds from TAK), WVE +2.4% (amends collaboration with TAK), ACMR +2.2% (secures orders for ECP demo tool and SAPS evaluation tool), PRTK +1.7% (first patient has been enrolled in its Phase 2b study of NUZYRA), TUP +1.5% (to sell its House of Fuller beauty business in Mexico), UPST +1% (BHLB announces partnership with UPST), WTI +0.7% (provides operational update for Q3), NUE +0.5% (in sympathy with STLD earnings), TAK +0.2% (CALA to acquire two clinical-stage compounds from TAK), AN +0.2% ( to sell 17 collision centers to Caliber Holdings), VNOM +0.1% (stock offering)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: DLO -7.7% (guides Q3 revs above consensus, but also announces 16 mln share offering by selling shareholders), EVER -6.2% (issues downside guidance for Q3), PACW -0.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: TASK -7% (stock offering), KRG -3.2% (to join S&P MidCap 400), BHLB -0.2% (BHLB announces partnership with UPST), FTI -0.1% (FTI announces strategic alliance with TALO to provide carbon capture and storage)

WSJ :Toyota, Stellantis to Build EV-Battery Factories in the U.S.

Toyota, Stellantis to Build EV-Battery Factories in the U.S.
Car makers accelerate push into the American electric-vehicle market as President Biden toughens fuel-efficiency standards

Toyota Motor Corp. TM 0.43% and Jeep parent Stellantis STLA 0.76% NV said separately Monday they would build battery factories in the U.S., the latest in a string of big-ticket investments by auto makers looking to sell more electric cars.

Stricter fuel-efficiency targets set by the Biden administration, combined with broader efforts around the globe, are pushing car companies to spend tens of billions of dollars collectively on new factories for EVs and the batteries to power them.

Toyota said it planned to spend $3.4 billion through 2030 to build electric-car batteries in the U.S. Previously it said it would spend roughly $9 billion building battery factories around the world as part of a $13.5 billion battery plan that includes research, but it hadn’t specified how much would be spent in the U.S.

Toyota didn’t present a full breakdown on the U.S. spending, but it said it and an affiliated company would spend $1.29 billion on a new battery plant. The plant aims to start production in 2025.

Separately, Stellantis said it was teaming up with LG Energy Solution, the battery-manufacturing arm of South Korea’s LG conglomerate, to build a new factory for lithium-ion batteries in the U.S. The companies didn’t disclose the size of investment, but said the plant would be able each year to produce batteries with a combined output of up to 40 gigawatt hours, enough to supply hundreds of thousands of EVs.

The announcements highlight the two main paths being taken by car makers on batteries. Some, like Toyota, plan to build many of their batteries in-house. Ford Motor Co. has also said it eventually would build its own batteries. Others, such as Stellantis and General Motors Co. , are teaming up with electronics manufacturers for their batteries.

Toyota has been an EV skeptic compared with others in the industry, so its plans are an acknowledgment that pressure is building to develop and sell battery-powered cars.

Earlier this year, Toyota said it planned to have 15 different battery-powered models to sell by 2025. It doesn’t sell any mass-market EVs in the U.S. yet but plans to have the first model ready next year. By 2030, Toyota hopes to be selling around two million electric vehicles a year globally, a figure that includes those powered both by batteries and by hydrogen fuel cells.

Toyota’s competitors have bigger ambitions. GM plans to spend $35 billion on electric vehicles and battery plants through 2025. Stellantis, whose brands include Jeep, Ram and Chrysler, said it would spend $35.5 billion over the same period. By contrast, Toyota’s new U.S. battery plant will initially concentrate on producing batteries for hybrid models.

Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda has criticized a push by governments around the world to ban or restrict the sale of gasoline-powered cars, saying it could cost millions of jobs and put the price of cars out of reach for most buyers.

“I hear some politicians saying, ‘Let’s just make everything an electric car,’” Mr. Toyoda said at a September news conference in his capacity as head of Japan’s auto-industry association. “I don’t think that’s right.”

Mr. Toyoda also said, “We can’t forget that carbon neutrality is also a jobs problem.”

Many car makers and suppliers echo Toyota’s fear about electric-vehicle prices, which are mainly driven by the cost of lithium-ion batteries.

Toyota has said it believes that over the next decade, the majority of its vehicles sold in the U.S. will be powered at least partly by a gasoline engine. The company says its hybrid vehicles, which combine an electric motor with a gasoline engine, offer the right combination of environmental friendliness and affordability by leaning more on long-established technology. Toyota says it has sold nearly 19 million hybrid vehicles since it introduced the Prius in 1997.

FT : Flooding could leave billions of US municipal debt under water

Flooding could leave billions of US municipal debt under water
Default rate on muni bonds may rise as cash-strapped cities struggle with extreme weather events

About a quarter of all US infrastructure is at risk of serious flooding, new research shows, which could hit prices in the $4tn municipal bond market and jeopardise the creditworthiness of city and state issuers.

New York-based climate research firm First Street Foundation this week published data showing that US infrastructure — including roads, hospitals and power stations — is at a greater risk of flooding than has previously been estimated. This has serious implications for state and city coffers, for property values, and for mortgage-backed securities and municipal bonds.

Louisiana, Florida and West Virginia have some of the worst flood prospects in the contiguous US, the First Street Foundation data show. In Louisiana, 45 per cent of all critical infrastructure facilities, a category which includes hospitals, fire stations, airports and power plants, are at risk of being rendered inoperable by flooding this year.

Also at risk of shutdown are 39 per cent of roads and 44 per cent of social infrastructure — schools, government buildings and houses of worship. In some cities in Louisiana, such as Metairie and New Orleans, the risk for all those categories is near 100 per cent.

Municipal debt has long been a haven asset class, popular with long-term investors including pension funds and insurance companies. While the default rate on muni bonds has historically been low, it could rise as cash-strapped cities struggle to keep up with the costs of extreme weather damage.

Muni bonds also tend to have maturities between 15 and 30 years; the average muni maturity issued last month was 18.6 years, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. With the climate changing so quickly, that leaves a lot of time for disaster to strike.

Investors also face the risk of geographic concentration. Owning munis issued by the state in which you live affords investors certain tax benefits, so muni investors tend to have high degrees of exposure to certain regions. A severe weather event could therefore quickly wipe out a huge amount of value in a muni portfolio.

“It is clear (climate) is a risk factor” in the municipal debt market, said Peter DeGroot, head of municipal bond research at JPMorgan. “The increasing frequency and intensity of weather events is a costly and complex issue for the federal government — and for state and local governments as well.”

Flooding can affect municipal debt in various ways. There’s the direct effect: a muni bond issued to fund the construction of a hospital could fall in value or risk default if its revenue stream ends abruptly when the hospital is destroyed in a storm.

Natural disasters can also drive people and businesses away and lower the value of existing property, diminishing a state or city’s tax base, another way that muni bonds are paid off.

Widespread flooding is also enormously expensive. Between 1980 and 2020, natural disasters caused $1.8tn worth of damage, according to the Government Accountability Office, roughly half of which was related to hurricanes and tropical storms. Municipalities have to borrow more in order to pay to rebuild, and to build new climate adaptation infrastructure. That raises the credit risk of existing bonds as well as the cost to borrow new funds.

Research led by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham at Yale University shows that municipal bond markets have already begun to price in the risks of higher sea levels.

The federal government has until now stepped in to help cities rebuild after major disasters. But as these events become more frequent, resources can be strained and local governments may bear more responsibility for funding recovery efforts.

Of the top 10 states with the greatest infrastructure flood risk, two are also among the most indebted: Connecticut and New York. Connecticut has the highest net tax-supported debt per capita out of all 50 states, the second-highest net tax-supported debt as a percentage of personal income and the second highest net tax-supported debt as a percentage of state gross domestic product, according to credit rating agency Moody’s. New York is within the top 10 in each of those categories as well.

There is anecdotal evidence of an overlap between indebted municipalities and those with high flood risk. Adding climate to a list of credit risks could exacerbate a difficult situation for these states and cities, making it even harder and costlier for them to borrow.

One of the two municipal debt defaults in 2020 — albeit not driven by climate costs — was in New Orleans, the city with the second-highest flood risk in the country. In Stockton, California, one of the largest cities to ever declare bankruptcy, 75 per cent of critical infrastructure facilities and 94 per cent of its social infrastructure is at risk of flooding this year.

“With a lot of these climate risks, we might not want to buy a small city on the coast that has a high risk of flooding, but we might be comfortable with owning a larger name with a better balance sheet for a shorter period, because we have to think about how to actually price that calculated risk,” said Alexa Gordon, a portfolio manager and head of muni ESG at Goldman Sachs.

All three major US rating agencies — Moody’s, S&P and Fitch — have begun to incorporate climate risk into their municipal debt evaluations.

“Our analytical view has been that flooding is akin to other risks that a state or local government could be challenged with,” said Marcy Block, senior director of sustainable finance at Fitch Ratings.

“To the extent the risk of flooding becomes a credit risk as it’s beyond management’s ability to effectively control, that would be reflected in our ratings and our ESG relevance scores.”