>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of May 2026

>>> Up
* ABN Amro GDRs PT Raised to 41 euros from 38.10 euros at Citi
* Burberry Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1,350 pence
* Draegerwerk Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Infineon PT Raised to 80 euros from 52 euros at Citi
* Interpump raised to Buy from Hold at Kepller Cheuvreux, PT Euro 43
* Kempower Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 15 euros
* Mowi Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 220 kroner
* NKT Price Target Raised to DKK 1,175 from DKK 955 by Nordea
* Repsol raised to Buy From Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux PT Euro 25.5
* Shell raised to Buy from Hold at HSBC PT 3,700p

>>> Down
* Commerzbank Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 39 euros
* Ouster Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $35
* Oxford Instruments Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 3,000 pence
* Regeneron Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT $700
* Taylor Wimpey Cut to Neutral at Rothschild & Co Redburn
* TKH GDRs Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 53 euros

>>> Initiation
* America Movil ADRs Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT $31.80
* Brave Bison Rated New Buy at Shore Capital; PT 125 pence
* Cohort Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 1,290 pence
* Elmet Group Rated New Buy at Roth Capital Partners; PT $21
* Mobileye Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT $8
* Naturgy Rated New Buy at NSV; PT 30.40 euros
* Tim Brasil ADRs Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT $23.40
* Vivo ADRs Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT $13.90

>>> Call
* ABN Amro Price Target Raised to Street High at Citi After 1Q
* Burberry Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Now a Top Pick in Luxury
* BMO Confirms SAP's Outperform Rating After Sapphire 2026 Event
* Oxford Instruments Seems Fairly Valued, Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* RBC Updates Forecasts for RWE After Q1 Results; Outperform Rating Kept

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Reckitt (3RB0 TH) +1.7%
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) +1.6%
  • Ryanair (RY4C TH) +1.3%
    • Ryanair Warns of Rising Costs From Fuel Prices, Crew Wages
  • National Grid (NNGF TH) +1.2%
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +1.1%
  • Burberry (BB2 TH) +1.1%
    • Burberry Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Now a Top Pick in Luxury
  • Fuchs (FPE3 TH) -2%
  • Banco BPM (BPM TH) -2.1%
  • Saab (SDV1 TH) -2.1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -2.2%
    • Thyssenkrupp Presta to Close Indiana Production Site by 2027
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) -2.4%
  • ASM Intl (AVS TH) -2.5%
  • Babcock (BW3 TH) -2.7%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -2.9%
  • Pan African (RTZ TH) -3.1%
  • Novo (NOV TH) -4.5%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) -1%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.1%
    • Infineon PT Raised to 80 euros from 52 euros at Citi
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) -1.3%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -1.3%
MDAX:
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +1.5%
  • Fuchs (FPE3 TH) -2%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) -2.5%
    • Thyssenkrupp Presta to Close Indiana Production Site by 2027
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -2.7%
SDAX:
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +1.4%
  • Verbio SE (VBK TH) +1.4%
  • Mutares (MUX TH) +1.3%
  • Wacker Neuson (WAC TH) +1.2%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1.1%
  • Douglas AG (DOU TH) -1.1%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) -1.3%

WWD : For Now at Least, Retail Property Owners Remain on Steady Ground Despite G

For Now at Least, Retail Property Owners Remain on Steady Ground Despite Global Economic and Political Turmoil
The annual ICSC Las Vegas convention and trade show convenes this week with the industry on solid footing and eager to learn about innovative retail concepts, projects in the works, and AI applications.

Retail real estate in the U.S. is on firm footing.

Occupancy rates are at or near record levels. Consumer spending was surprisingly resilient through 2025 and has been into 2026 so far even as inflation leaps. And redevelopments across North America are transforming mundane malls into relevant mixed-use destinations.

But while industry metrics at Simon, Tanger, Regency Centers and other owners and operators of retail destinations are healthy, there’s an undercurrent of concern about the impact of the Iran and Ukraine wars on the world economy; rising prices; the Federal Reserve pausing rate cuts, and Americans cutting back on shopping. Consumers are spending more on essentials, mostly due to higher prices, while reducing spending on non-essentials.

Against this climate of business uncertainty, which seems be growing as the year progresses, the ICSC trade organization stages its largest event of the year — ICSC Las Vegas — Monday through Wednesday. An expected crowd of 25,000 developers, property owners, retailers, brands, tech suppliers and other service providers will convene at the Central and South Halls of the Las Vegas Convention Center, matching the attendance seen at last year’s event. Over 900 exhibitors will be on the trade show floor and professional development sessions are being held Monday at the Wynn Hotel.

Against this climate of business uncertainty, which seems be growing as the year progresses, the ICSC trade organization stages its largest event of the year — ICSC Las Vegas — Monday through Wednesday. An expected crowd of 25,000 developers, property owners, retailers, brands, tech suppliers and other service providers will convene at the Central and South Halls of the Las Vegas Convention Center, matching the attendance seen at last year’s event. Over 900 exhibitors will be on the trade show floor and professional development sessions are being held Monday at the Wynn Hotel.

Speaking later in the day will be Mike “Coach K” Krzyzewski, one of the winningest coaches in college basketball who served as the head coach at Duke University from 1980 to 2022.

Another innovation is an ICSC+Proptech event featuring sessions on property technologies and the latest iterations. About 100 exhibitors will be promoting their technologies and explaining how to utilize them.

“Any sort of technology, from parking garage cameras tracking open spaces to AI, will be there,” said Stephanie Cegielski, ICSC’s vice president of public relations and industry education. She said Terminal A at Newark International Airport and the Asheville, N.C., airport are early adopters of new parking technology.

“Of course, AI is top of mind. AI is creating efficiencies without really costing jobs,” Cegielski said. “What we are seeing from our members is they’re just using AI to make their people better and more efficient. But you will be seeing people who don’t know how to use AI getting replaced by people who do know how to use it, because it creates efficiencies.”

Applications like personalized recommendations, dynamic pricing and automated inventory management have been around for years, but AI advancements are taking personalization; payment systems; search; insights into consumer behavior; marketing; ordering and replenishment; store design, and product information for store associates to new levels. And AI is opening up opportunities for workers to be retrained for roles requiring more of the human touch, for operational efficiencies, for eliminating costs after initial investments, and for making it quicker and easier for people to shop and find what they want — even parking their cars before shopping.

On the other hand, AI is seen increasingly replacing jobs, reducing traffic in stores and shopping centers, raising cybersecurity concerns, and is costly to implement. Ironically, as consumers habitually use AI agents to shop and transact, they are also expected to develop a greater appetite for live experiences interacting with humanity in stores and shopping centers.

ICSC recently released a report on AI in conjunction with McKinsey, the management consulting firm, highlighting how AI has become a big part of the customer journey to search, compare, and even automate purchases, leading to more intentional and higher value trips to shopping centers. The report projected $1 trillion in U.S. retail revenue from agentic commerce by 2030, and $3 trillion to $5 trillion globally.

Meanwhile, mall owners are using AI to review leases and help them write leases. “There are all sorts of back office uses for AI being utilized, whether to streamline accounting functions or human resources functions. AI can consolidate and analyze large amounts of data quickly. That’s becoming a valuable tool for brokers to use when they’re trying to get leases signed. We’re seeing a lot there,” said Cegielski.

Property owners and operators are also using AI to increase productivity by providing solutions for layout designs and adjacencies, a change from relying on traditional methods of designing layouts. “AI is now taking it a step further from even what CAD can do,” said Cegielski.

Asked how the Iran and Ukraine wars and inflation are affecting property owners and developers, Cegielski replied, “From a consumer perspective, we haven’t really seen any change to retail sales since the end of February. But we are seeing consumers shift how they’re spending so they are really focusing on essentials more than non-essentials. We did a survey recently that said about 55 percent of consumers are spending more on essentials than they had previously, in part due to inflation.

“From a industry perspective, we haven’t seen anything yet,” Cegielski added. “Our members play a very long game” when it comes to setting goals and budgets revolving around redevelopments and renovations typically involving anywhere from three to 10 years.

“When they’re in Las Vegas, they’re looking at signing leases for space that isn’t going to come due until next year,” said Cegielski. “They’re always looking 12 to 24 months out.” If the Iran war drags on and on, some impact could be felt, she suggested.

“The bigger concern as when it comes to development or redevelopment, or even buying and selling of properties is with what the Fed decides to do with interest rates. That said, obviously, with a prolonged war, we’re not going to probably see any rate cuts, which could inform decisions,” Cegielski said.

Rates at 4.5 percent to 5 percent have come way down from the ’80s when they stood in the mid-teens, but they remain far above the historic 0 percent to 0.25 percent set by the Fed during the pandemic, which was the ideal time to borrow.

On occupancy rates, “They can’t go up much more,” Cegielski said. “They are at record highs right now. The biggest problem our industry has at the moment is there’s not enough space, unless it’s in an undesirable location. Occupancy rates are in the mid 90s, which is incredible. There are some lower-performing malls that have lower occupancy rates, but on average across all 1,100 enclosed malls in the U.S., it’s in the low 90 percents. Retailers are clamoring for space, and there’s not enough of it at the moment.”

Pervading North America’s retail landscape are redevelopments recasting shopping centers into mixed-use destinations. As Cegielski observed, the grand opening of the 5-million-square-foot Oakridge Park in Vancouver, set for May 28, is a case in point. It’s a redevelopment of the former Oakridge Center, and a reflection the direction many owner/developers are going — bringing retail, food and beverage, residential, services and entertainment features all into one property. Owners are also responding more to local communities by leasing to local groceries and restaurants on the main streets of America. This is giving them opportunities, so they open second locations in larger shopping destinations, giving shoppers alternatives from national chains, while strengthening community ties and attracting more customers.

Cegielski also sees those retailers that offer the best value and discounts as being most aggressive in rolling out new stores. Count Burlington, Aritzia, Nordstrom Rack, TJX Cos., Dollar General, Five Below, Tractor Supply, Aldi, Primark, and Academy Sports as most expansion-minded. “They’re taking advantage of store closings by Macy’s, Saks Global, Jo-Ann Fabrics, and others,” Cegielski said.

FT : Ovo founder in line for £30mn payout ahead of Eon sale

Ovo founder in line for £30mn payout ahead of Eon sale
Stephen Fitzpatrick to receive payment for brand royalty fees under arrangement with retail energy company he started

The founder of British household energy supplier Ovo is set to be paid a further £30mn in brand royalty fees from the company ahead of its sale to rival supplier Eon.

Stephen Fitzpatrick is owed the sum under an old arrangement through which an entity controlled by him charged Ovo millions of pounds annually for use of the Ovo brand, according to the company’s published accounts and people familiar with the matter.

It comes as Britain’s retail energy industry is under scrutiny over its financial stability and treatment of customers at a time of high energy bills connected to global wholesale prices and other pressures.

Ovo’s rival British Gas on Friday agreed to pay a penalty of £20mn and write off up to £70mn in customer debt after an investigation by the regulator concluded it had force fitted pre-payment meters in vulnerable customers’ homes in breach of licence conditions.

Ofgem is also investigating Ovo’s treatment of pre-payment meter customers.

Ovo supplies gas and electricity to around four million UK customers. It is part of the wider Ovo Group which also includes a technology arm, Kaluza, which is used by Ovo and licensed to other suppliers. 

The companies announced last week that the energy supplier Ovo will be sold to German energy giant Eon, creating a supplier serving around 9.6mn households in the UK that will vie with Octopus Energy to be the country’s largest supplier.

The deal followed a lengthy search by Ovo for new investment as it tried to meet capital buffer requirements put in place by the energy regulator last year. This followed the collapse of around 30 suppliers due to soaring wholesale prices after Russia started squeezing Europe’s energy supplies in late 2021 and early 2022.

Ovo confirmed late last year it had yet to meet its capital buffer target, saying this created a “material uncertainty” over its ability to continue as a going concern.

It is not in breach of Ofgem’s rules, which give companies time to reach the target as long as they have a pathway to doing so.

Ovo was founded by Fitzpatrick in 2009, as part of a new wave of suppliers set up to challenge the dominance of the so-called Big Six including Eon and British Gas. 

Between roughly 2015 and 2024, Ovo was charged millions of pounds each year — reaching a high of £40mn in 2023 — for use of the Ovo brand by Imagination Industries, a company controlled by Fitzpatrick. 

The total amount charged over the decade amounted to more than £122mn, according to analysis of the company’s records, although the amount that has actually been paid so far appears to be around £50mn.

In January 2025, Imagination Industries — now known as Ovo Brand — was taken over by Ovo in return for 150mn £1 preference shares for Fitzpatrick in Energy Transition Holdings, by then Ovo’s parent company, adding to his ordinary shares.  

Under that arrangement, Imagination Industries forgave outstanding amounts above £30mn owed by Ovo, and distributed the right to receive that outstanding £30mn to Imagination Industries Holdings — whose parent company, Imagination Industries Top Co, is controlled by Fitzpatrick, accounts show. 

Fitzpatrick, 48, is a serial entrepreneur and investor who has also set up electrically powered “flying taxi” company Vertical Aerospace, owned the Formula 1 Manor Racing Team, and in 2020 bought The Roof Gardens, a private members club in Kensington, London. 

The Roof Gardens took out a £15mn loan in April 2025 in part secured against money owed to Imagination Industries Holdings, according to accounts at Companies House for Kensington RG. 

The price that Eon is paying for Ovo has not been disclosed. However, the Financial Times has previously reported it is in the region of £550mn-£590mn. 

In total Fitzpatrick owned about 46 per cent of Ovo’s parent company Energy Transition Holdings at the time of the sale.

Fitzpatrick was announced in March as the chief executive of Kaluza, Ovo Group’s technology arm, which is not part of the deal with Eon.

Ovo and Fitzpatrick declined to comment.

FT : European oil refiners and airlines confident jet fuel shortages can be avoi

European oil refiners and airlines confident jet fuel shortages can be avoided
Refiners maximise production and increase imports from US and Africa to offset loss of Middle Eastern supplies

European airlines and oil refiners are growing more confident the continent can avoid outright jet fuel shortages this summer after plants maximised output, boosted imports and governments tapped strategic reserves.

While refiners still believe the peak travel season will be a “stress test” for the sector, given the loss of supplies from the Middle East, multiple oil companies said a warning of shortages within weeks from the International Energy Agency seemed unlikely to come to pass.

Spanish energy group Repsol said it had increased jet fuel production for the coming months by 20 to 25 per cent compared with the same period last year, by reconfiguring its refineries to produce higher kerosene yields from each barrel of crude processed.

The increase is unusually large for a refining system where operators typically have limited flexibility to shift output between products.

Antonio Mestre, head of refinery operations at Repsol, said the move was intended to “get the summer season covered”, as Spain typically experiences intense jet fuel demand during the peak travel period, with the company also delaying planned maintenance.

Europe has so far avoided severe disruption after the head of the IEA warned in April that the region had “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left”, with airlines curbing only a handful of unprofitable short-haul routes.

British Airways said earlier this month that it had enough suppliers for its entire summer schedule, while Air France said its airports had sufficient reserves to cover several months. 

Wizz Air chief József Váradi said rising jet fuel prices, while painful, had helped Europe adapt, as US and Nigerian refineries sent additional exports to the region.

“That kind of market price mobilises forces,” he said. 

Jet fuel prices in northern Europe surged to a record high of $1,904 per tonne in early April, more than double before the crisis began, according to Argus Media. Last week jet fuel traded around $1,328 per tonne, 60 per cent higher than prewar levels.

Last week, Istanbul airport’s chief commercial officer Server Aydin told the FT that the airport, which has seen increased demand for transfer traffic after the closure of the Gulf’s main hubs, was fine for supplies because it sourced from many different suppliers.

“Diversification is the key,” he told the FT.

Galp, the Portuguese energy company, also said it was “maximising” jet fuel output.

“No disruptions to supply are anticipated in the coming months,” the company said, adding that domestic consumption was expected to be “fully covered” by increased production and committed import contracts.

Eugene Lindell, an analyst at energy consultancy FGE NexantECA, estimated that higher European refinery yields could add roughly 100,000 barrels a day of jet fuel, or about 20 per cent of the supplies Europe imported from the Middle East before the Iran war.

One European refiner said its March and April results were likely to be among the highest in the company’s history, given the surge in jet fuel, illustrating the incentive to raise production at the expense of other fuels.

“We have to take profit of the moment,” the person said.


Lindell estimated that the release of strategic inventories by IEA members would cover about 34 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel supply deficit in 2025, while increased imports from countries including the US and Nigeria could fill the remaining gap.

European jet fuel demand in the second quarter of this year is also estimated to have eased by about 2 per cent due to airlines trimming unprofitable routes — far from the severe demand destruction initially feared.

However, traders warned that Europe still could not afford to be complacent.

Łukasz Strupczewski, a senior trader at Polish energy company Orlen, said the summer would probably be a “stress test” for the “whole global energy security system”.

“If I had been working here for only two or three years, I would say, no problem,” said Strupczewski, who has been a trader for nearly 20 years. “But it has been too long.”

“A tiny change in current conditions might cause a lot of problems for everybody,” he added.

FT : Anthropic to brief global financial watchdog on cyber flaws exposed by Myth

Anthropic to brief global financial watchdog on cyber flaws exposed by Mythos
US tech group will discuss capabilities of its new AI model with members of the Financial Stability Board

Anthropic has agreed to brief leading finance ministries and central banks on vulnerabilities in the global financial system’s cyber defences identified by the US technology company’s latest AI model.

Two people familiar with the plan said it followed a request by Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England, for Anthropic to discuss the capabilities of its new Claude Mythos Preview AI model with members of the Financial Stability Board, which he chairs.

The FSB is a global watchdog that brings together finance ministry officials, central bankers and securities regulators from G20 countries. It includes officials from the US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Australia and China.

Many of its members are increasingly alarmed about the potential risks that Mythos and AI models developed by other US tech companies could pose to the global banking system by exposing weaknesses in lenders’ cyber defences.  

Anthropic said last month that Mythos had “found thousands of high-severity vulnerabilities, including some in every major operating system and web browser”. It added: “The fallout — for economies, public safety and national security — could be severe.”  

Mythos has been released to only a limited number of organisations, mostly in the US, because of fears about the risks it could pose in the wrong hands. But this has left many companies and regulators elsewhere worried about uneven levels of protection.

Anthropic has been flooded with requests from around the world for access to Mythos or briefings about what it can do. It has agreed to provide high-level briefings to some non-US organisations, such as the European Commission.

About 40 organisations have been given access to Mythos, including Amazon, Microsoft and JPMorgan Chase, allowing them to fix vulnerabilities it finds. But Anthropic has agreed not to distribute it more widely following a request by the White House.

The FSB is working on a report outlining “sound practices” for adopting AI in the financial system, which it plans to release for consultation next month. Both the FSB and Anthropic declined to comment on recent communication between them.

Regulators have been urging banks and other financial institutions to check their cyber security systems and speed up deployment of software patches to fix vulnerabilities exposed by new AI models.

The UK Treasury and financial regulators recently urged City of London institutions to take “active steps” to mitigate cyber security risks in response to “faster and more disruptive frontier AI-driven attacks”.

But some authorities are sceptical that there will be a co-ordinated global response to the threat of AI given current geopolitical tensions. 

Earlier this month, the IMF urged policymakers to strengthen international co-operation in tackling the cyber security vulnerabilities exposed by the latest AI models.

It warned that the new models “elevate cyber risk to a potential macro-financial shock”. 

“Cyber risk does not respect borders,” IMF officials wrote in a blog post. “Emerging and developing countries, which often have more severe resource constraints, may be disproportionately exposed to attackers targeting regions with weaker defences.”

FT : Investment firms look beyond Iran war to expand in Middle East

Investment firms look beyond Iran war to expand in Middle East
Asset managers and hedge funds say they remain committed to the region despite the current disruption

Asset managers and hedge funds say they are expanding in the Middle East, predicting that business disruption as a result of the Iran war will only be temporary.

State Street, which has $5.6tn in assets under management, announced plans in late January to open a new operating centre in Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, weeks before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran.

“We will go ahead with our plan,” said Joerg Ambrosius, State Street’s head of investment services. “Our commitment to the region is unchanged.”

He noted that State Street already had a regional headquarters in Saudi Arabia and offices in Abu Dhabi and Oman. “We are still very positive on the midterm and long-term prospects of [the Middle East].”

Partners Capital, a $75bn UK-based manager specialising in endowments and family offices, opened its first Abu Dhabi office on Monday.

“I think we’re doubling down; we’re not pulling back at all,” Partners’ chief executive Arjun Raghavan said.

“Just because you’ve had this conflict, doesn’t mean that 40 years of planning, particularly in the last decade . . . is just going to disappear,” he added. “If you come across as a tourist in the region, then I don’t think you succeed.”

State Street and Partners were among a handful of managers who highlighted their commitment to Middle East expansion in interviews with the FT, arguing that global investors would look past geopolitical tensions and that opportunities had been amplified by other organisations avoiding the region or slowing their plans.

That optimism comes even as the US-Israeli war in Iran has entered its third month. The conflict has drawn in neighbouring countries, including the United Arab Emirates, and sparked an escalating energy shock, fuelling concerns about inflation and the health of the global economy.

US President Donald Trump last week cast a pall over fragile hopes for a resolution to the war, stating that the ceasefire with Iran was “on massive life support”.

Still, Richard Schimel, the co-founder and co-chief investment officer of hedge fund Cinctive Capital, said his firm had rented an office in Abu Dhabi at the beginning of March and that he had a multiyear plan for expanding in the region. Schimel plans to visit again later this month.

“There are people who will run, and there are people who lean in,” he said. “I’m one of the people who’s leaning in. To be honest, it hasn’t even been a question for me.”

The Middle East has become a hotbed for fundraising in recent years, with Deloitte forecasting last year that the Gulf’s sovereign wealth funds could reach $18tn by 2030. Some investment firms have seen establishing offices in the region as a way to build name recognition and attract new capital from the world’s deepest pockets.

State Street’s Ambrosius said that while Middle East investors had in the past sought investment opportunities overseas, “they clearly now are very actively approaching global investors to consider investments in-region”.

“We believe that we will now see also an [evolution] of the capital markets,” he added. This was especially true in Saudi Arabia, where “for a long time they were only exporting capital”.

Still, the war has led some firms to reconsider earlier ambitions to expand in the Middle East, with executives saying they were relieved that they were not already present in the region when conflict erupted.

One asset manager told the FT last month that they had put early conversations on hold about entering the Middle East. Another macro hedge fund manager said they had previously considered opening an office in Dubai, but had not gone ahead with the plans even before the war.

“We’ve thought about it, but I’m glad I don’t have one at the moment,” they said. “Everyone in that region is totally spooked because Iran has all these cheap drones that can inflict some pretty heavy damage.”

An executive at another large asset manager said some firms would think twice given the added security considerations.

However, “I don’t think that the security situation is something that would cause me to revisit our plans,” he said. “I’m quite bullish about the region. I could see us expanding in the Middle East.”

Oliver Berger, State Street’s interim head of Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said he had recently had to take a flight and a further five-hour drive to reach Kuwait.

“The reaction of clients was very positive,” he said. “Some said that they hadn’t seen a visitor for the last six weeks into Kuwait, because obviously it’s not easy to get there.

“But we feel that is creating opportunity for us [as others pull back]. We feel we understand the region.”

FT : The fate of OpenAI’s $1tn IPO will be decided in an Oakland jury room

The fate of OpenAI’s $1tn IPO will be decided in an Oakland jury room
Elon Musk’s legal challenge could derail the AI start-up’s commercial ambitions

Sam Altman sat in the front row through days of testimony in his legal battle with Elon Musk, a decision that highlighted the stakes in a case that could clear OpenAI’s way to a $1tn IPO or see its chief executive thrown out in disgrace.

Nine jurors could issue a verdict as soon as Monday, leaving Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers to decide whether to reverse OpenAI’s for-profit restructuring, award $134bn in damages or unseat Altman and co-founder Greg Brockman.

Having navigated rounds of tortuous restructuring negotiations with its largest shareholder Microsoft and the abortive removal of Altman as CEO, victory over Musk would remove a final hurdle to OpenAI’s plans to go public in the next year at a valuation of $1tn or more.

Defeat would leave the start-up’s future in doubt.

“There are serious legal issues at stake” about OpenAI’s mission and the public good, said Jill Horwitz, a professor at the Northwestern University Pritzker School of Law.

But, she added, “the spectacle of these two multibillionaires fighting about power and money has distorted and obscured what the law is meant to care about here, which is the public interest”.

Claims about Musk’s megalomania, Altman’s integrity and Brockman’s greed have been under scrutiny alongside the documents and legal obligations that stemmed from OpenAI’s creation in 2015.

Closing his case on Thursday after three weeks of evidence, Musk’s lawyer Steven Molo attacked Brockman’s $30bn personal stake in OpenAI, calling him “a senior insider who never provided any funding at all”. He blasted Altman as “a CEO who was involved in transactions which are admittedly conflicted”.

Altman owns stakes worth well over $2bn in companies that have done business with OpenAI, it emerged during the trial. The Republican-led House oversight committee launched a probe into Altman’s potential conflicts this week.

“Sam Altman’s credibility is directly at issue in this case . . . If you cannot trust him, if you don’t believe him, they can’t win. It’s that simple,” Molo told the jury.

OpenAI’s lawyers said Musk’s case was motivated by envy and pique. He left its board in 2018 and predicted the start-up had a “0%” chance of success without him — only to be humiliated by ChatGPT’s meteoric success. OpenAI is now valued at $852bn, and Musk’s own xAI lab has failed to catch up.

Musk’s argument could be summed up as: “Elon, Elon, Elon, it was all me,” said William Savitt, attorney for OpenAI.

“Musk may have the Midas touch in some areas, but not in AI . . . To succeed in AI, as it turns out, all Mr Musk can do is come to court,” he added.

OpenAI’s defence also focused on Musk’s willingness to see OpenAI become a for-profit, provided he could take control. At one point, Musk suggested that it should be absorbed into his carmaker Tesla.

His efforts to win over the other co-founders extended to giving them Teslas worth $262,400.

“At least we’re getting our Teslas! Will a model 3 make you be willing to accept massively unfavorable terms?” OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever texted Brockman in August 2017, as Musk pushed for control of the company.

On the day Musk ultimately left OpenAI, the company held an all-hands meeting. Musk was questioned by Joshua Achiam, now OpenAI’s chief futurist, over his “reckless” proposals that could imperil AI safety.

Musk shot back, calling him a “jackass”, Achiam testified on Wednesday.

The court was shown a golden statue of half of a jackass gifted to Achiam by other employees, including Dario Amodei, who now runs rival AI lab Anthropic, after the altercation. It is inscribed with “never stop being a jackass for safety”.

Amodei has been perhaps the greatest beneficiary of a case that has preoccupied and damaged his rivals. During the trial, Anthropic signed a multibillion-dollar data centre deal with Musk’s SpaceX and agreed terms to raise $30bn at a $900bn valuation.

“Musk did a good job of tarnishing Altman, but it is hard to do worse than Musk in a reputational sense,” said Stavros Gadinis, professor of law at the University of California, Berkeley.

Outside the courthouse, a small group of protesters gathered each day with placards and props to express their fears about AI and distaste for its masters.

One man wearing a cardboard Tesla wore a Musk mask and brandished an oversized bag of drugs, while an inflatable version of the billionaire gave repeated Nazi salutes. Another sign read simply: “Everyone sucks here.”

Beyond the reputational battle, Musk’s case rests on whether his decision to donate $38mn as well as his time and reputation to OpenAI between 2015 and 2018 created a charitable trust, which was then breached by the start-up’s conversion to a for-profit.

He claims Microsoft, which stepped in to fund OpenAI after its split with Musk, aided and abetted OpenAI’s breach of contract.

The software giant has invested $13bn directly into OpenAI and has poured more than $100bn into infrastructure and computing resources to serve the start-up, according to testimony.

Microsoft’s lawyers have rubbished that claim, saying there was no such contract and playing down the company’s influence over the start-up.

Even if the jury sides with Musk, Gadinis said it was unlikely that Gonzalez Rogers would take extreme action, such as removing Altman and Brockman or reversing OpenAI’s restructure, not least because she would be responsible for finding a new leader and supervising the transition.

The judge herself said in March that Musk’s damages claim rested on “numbers out of the air”.

Gadinis added that Musk’s early effort “to gain control or merge with Tesla undermines his core argument”.


When he filed his suit in 2024, Musk said advanced AI was “perhaps the greatest existential threat we face today” and cautioned against it falling into the hands of those who see it “as a source of profit and power”.

But as the legal battle over the control of OpenAI and its powerful technology drew to a close this week, the world’s richest man travelled to Beijing with President Donald Trump aboard Air Force One and posed for a selfie with a Chinese billionaire.

Savitt seized on the symbolism of Musk’s absence as he concluded a trial where optics have often superseded substance. “Mr Musk isn’t here today. My clients are,” he said.

FT : Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos takes €200mn punt on chemical sector peers

Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos takes €200mn punt on chemical sector peers
Group invests in basket of company equities and tells bondholders the sector is ‘undervalued’

Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s chemicals conglomerate Ineos has amassed a €200mn bet on the share price of other chemical companies, backing their view that the ailing sector is undervalued.

The unusual move marks a defiant gesture for a private company that has seen its own bonds targeted over the past 12 months by a number of large hedge funds, as the sector has come under fire.

Ratcliffe, who co-owns football club Manchester United, built Ineos by making a number of bold acquisitions in unloved sectors and has been a forceful proponent of the European chemical industry, despite its waning profitability in recent years.

“The ultimate shareholders of the Group believe that chemical producers are currently undervalued,” Ineos said in private bond offering documents shared with investors as part of a €700mn debt issuance earlier this month.

“As such, the Group has invested approximately €200 million in an exposure to a basket of publicly traded liquid equities related to the chemical industry,” it said, adding that it may increase its exposure to those equities and could purchase shares in other companies related to the sector.

Europe’s chemicals producers have struggled in recent years with a deluge of cut-price imports from China, high energy prices and tougher environmental regulations, on top of overcapacity and weak demand across the globe.

Ineos declined to comment further, saying “the disclosures in the offering memorandum speak for themselves”.

The bond prospectus suggests it is a straight financial investment, however, rather than an attempt to take control of other companies, with Ineos saying it “is likely to be unwound during 2026” though it could not guarantee the timing of any sale or that “the value of this investment will not decline”.

The US and Israel’s war on Iran has been a source of reprieve for Ineos and some of its peers, as the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut supply from Asia and the Middle East, increasing prices of chemical products and margins.

Founded in 1998, Ineos has borrowed heavily for over two decades to become one of the world’s biggest chemicals companies through a series of acquisitions. A prolific user of European high-yield debt markets, the group’s bonds plunged over the past 12 months amid wider trouble in the chemicals sector and concern over the company’s leverage.

The price of its debt has recovered following the war on Iran, with billions of euros worth of debt that had fallen to prices as low as 80 cents on the euro before the war returning to close to par.

A number of large hedge funds in the US and Europe built up short positions against the sector’s constituents in the past year, betting that the weaker companies may come under financial strain or collapse.

In an investor letter sent in January, US hedge fund Diameter, which oversees $25bn in assets, said that it had “success in the fourth quarter in shorts of global chemicals companies bedevilled not so much by sudden drops in demand (RECESSION!) than by the evolution of supply. 

“The problem is China, which seems determined to add capacity up and down the chemicals chain,” it said, adding: “We have shorts in the most impacted names and believe that 2026 will be a watershed inflection for chemicals.”

Ineos has not disclosed the particular companies it has bought into but the wider sector performance in 2026 suggested the bet will have done well so far. The share price of BASF, the German-headquartered chemical group, has risen by about a fifth so far this year. Evonik, a specialist chemical company, is up by almost a third, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Chemicals index has risen 8 per cent since January.