FT : Chevron and Quantum Energy Partners line up bid for $22bn of Lukoil assets

Chevron and Quantum Energy Partners line up bid for $22bn of Lukoil assets
Trump administration signals support for proposal to divvy up sanctioned Russian company’s international businesses

Chevron and private equity group Quantum Energy Partners are teaming up on a bid to buy the international assets of sanctioned Russian oil company Lukoil.

If a deal is clinched, Chevron and Quantum plan to divvy up the assets between them, valued at $22bn by Lukoil, according to people familiar with the matter.

The bid, which is spearheaded by Quantum, is for the whole portfolio of Lukoil’s international assets, including oil and gas production, refining facilities and more than 2,000 filling stations across Europe, Asia and the Middle East.

Quantum and Chevron would own and operate the assets for the long term, a promise that was likely to win favour with the Trump administration, the people said. Quantum is buying the assets in collaboration with its London-based portfolio company Artemis Energy.

The offer price of the Quantum-led bid could not immediately be established. Quantum declined to comment.

A Chevron spokesperson said the company had a diverse portfolio and continues to assess potential opportunities. “As a matter of policy, we do not comment on third-party statements, nor do we comment on commercial matters.”

The pair are the latest bidders to enter the battle for Lukoil’s non-Russian assets, which have drawn bids from Carlyle and Abu Dhabi conglomerate International Holding Company.

The auction process was kick-started in November when Swiss commodities trader Gunvor backed out of a deal with Lukoil for the assets after the Trump administration said it would block the transaction and labelled Gunvor the “Kremlin’s puppet”.

Quantum, which was founded by Texan oil tycoon Wil VanLoh, had already engaged with Trump administration officials about its bid and had argued that its proposal would cement American ownership over strategically important energy assets, the people said.

A senior US government official welcomed the Quantum-Chevron proposal.

“We are looking for a divestment that places ownership of these assets into the hands of an American owner and operator ad infinitum. We do not want a buy-and-flip situation, so this is a compelling option,” the official told the Financial Times, referring to the companies’ bid.

Chevron, which previously considered its own bid for part of Lukoil’s assets, could be interested in the Russian company’s 5 per cent stake in Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oilfield, which the US company partially owns and operates.

The US Treasury department has given a dispensation for companies to negotiate with Lukoil until January 17. Any deal would require US regulatory approval, handing President Donald Trump an effective veto.

Gunvor’s deal to buy Lukoil’s international business collapsed in November when the Treasury said it would not grant the Swiss trading house a licence to operate the asset because of its alleged ties to the Kremlin.

Gunvor, which has sought to distance itself from Russia, was co-founded by Gennady Timchenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin who left the company 11 years ago and no longer holds a stake.

FT : Elon Musk’s xAI raises $20bn in funding round that doubles valuation

Elon Musk’s xAI raises $20bn in funding round that doubles valuation
Announcement comes as scrutiny of chatbot mounts after it created sexualised images of minors

Elon Musk’s xAI said it has raised $20bn in new funding, in an upsized deal that more than doubles its valuation since last spring, despite growing concerns over illegal content generated by its artificial intelligence.

The start-up, which develops the chatbot and model Grok, initially targeted a $15bn round, at a $230bn valuation. On Tuesday, xAI announced the larger-than-anticipated round, with participation from Valor Equity Partners, Fidelity Investment Management, the Qatar Investment Authority and Abu Dhabi fund MGX.

Strategic investors include Nvidia and Cisco, whom the company said would support its computing resources. Nvidia supplies chips to xAI, which power the training and running of its AI models.

In July, xAI raised $10bn through loans and cash investments to fund construction of its Colossus data centre in Memphis, Tennessee. In June, it sold $300mn of shares in a secondary stock offering.

The announcement comes as scrutiny mounts of xAI, after its image generation feature on Grok created sexualised images of minors and adults, “undressing” them without consent. 

Earlier on Tuesday, UK technology minister Liz Kendall said in a statement that the content was “absolutely appalling” and that the company needed to deal with it “urgently”. Creating or sharing non-consensual intimate imagery or child sex abuse material, including AI-generated content, is illegal in the UK.

The company said in a statement posted to X on Saturday that it takes “action against illegal content on X, including Child Sexual Abuse Material (CSAM), by removing it, permanently suspending accounts, and working with local governments and law enforcement as necessary”.

“Anyone using or prompting Grok to make illegal content will suffer the same consequences as if they upload illegal content,” it added.

xAI acquired social media network X for $45bn in March, bringing together two Musk businesses under one umbrella, and combining data, computing power, staff and users. The company said it had more than 600mn monthly active users across both platforms. Users on X can access Grok readily in the app or through comments on posts.

xAI said it was training the next version of its large language model, Grok 5, and planned to launch new consumer and enterprise products. It is also building models to assist its planned expansion into gaming and robotics, as previously reported by the Financial Times.

>>> US After Hours Summary: VTYX +60.3% surges on WSJ report that LLY in advance

After Hours Summary: VTYX +60.3% surges on WSJ report that LLY in advanced talks to acquire co; PENG +4.5%, AIR +2.8% higher on earnings; MBLY +10.9% to acquire Mentee Robotics

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PENG +4.5%, AIR +2.8%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: VTYX +60.3% (LLY in advanced talks to acquire VTYX according to WSJ), MBLY +10.9% (to acquire Mentee Robotics), GLUE +8.6% (to present interim MRT-8102 Phase 1 study results), MSTR +5% (MSCI announces it will not exclude digital asset treasury cos from MSCI Indexes), ALMS +4.1% (commences $175 mln stock offering), BMNR +2.2% (MSCI announces it will not exclude digital asset treasury cos from MSCI Indexes), MUR +1.5% (achieves appraisal success at Hai Su Vang Field; reaffirms 2026 CAPEX guidance), ATR +1.5% (to collaborate with OURA to advance migraine insights), DRS +0.8% (names new COO), CARL +0.5% (announces publication of new study), BTC +0.5% (MSCI announces it will not exclude digital asset treasury cos from MSCI Indexes), PLUG +0.4% (license agreement with Walmart), CTO +0.4% (provides update), CAT +0.3% (names new chairman)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None.

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: DRUG -3.4% ($100 mln stock offering), PRAX -2.5% (stock offering), HBAN -1.2% (HBAN and CADE shareholders approve merger), SKT -0.9% ($200 mln exchangeable notes offering)

FT : Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would ‘invade’ Venezuela

Polymarket refuses to pay bets that US would ‘invade’ Venezuela
Prediction market disputes US raid amounted to an invasion in fight over more than $10.5mn in wagers

Polymarket is disputing the mission to capture Nicolás Maduro constituted an invasion and said it will only settle a prediction contract if the US military takes control of Venezuelan territory.

The decision by the prediction market has angered gamblers and added to the controversy surrounding a successful wager on the timing of Maduro’s capture that netted more than $400,000 in winnings for a mystery trader. The dispute over the definition of “invade” highlights just one of the controversies faced by the mostly unregulated industry.

Polymarket — which only recently gained regulatory approval to operate legally in the US — says on its website that it will resolve the “Will the US invade Venezuela by . . .?” contract if the US “commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela” by one of three dates. 

“The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources,” it adds.

Prediction platforms such as Polymarket do not typically make directional wagers in their own markets. Rather, they act as an intermediary matching long and short positions and adjudicating the outcome of events, collecting a fee in the process.

After Maduro’s capture and extraction from his Caracas compound by US special forces early on Saturday, President Donald Trump said the US would dictate the Latin American nation’s policies to be carried out by leaders of the remaining regime.

Prices on the question jumped shortly after the raid but fell below 5 per cent when the platform chose not to settle the contract. The platform resolved a similar contract — “US forces in Venezuela by . . .?” — in favour of the “yes” position a few hours after the raid on Saturday.



There is currently more than $10.5mn wagered on the contract — the majority on a January 31 deadline, with the remainder on contracts ending in March and December. Users who had in some cases bet tens of thousands of dollars on a US invasion have taken to Polymarket’s comment section to vent their frustration.

“Polymarket has descended into sheer arbitrariness,” said a user called Skinner. “Words are redefined at will, detached from any recognised meaning, and facts are simply ignored. That a military incursion, the kidnapping of a head of state, and the takeover of a country are not classified as an invasion is plainly absurd.”

Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The bet on Maduro’s capture has revived concern about traders unfairly capitalising on their information edge, after another incident last year in which a trader successfully wagered on the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize. The timing of the bets on the Venezuela contracts appeared to indicate the trader had advance knowledge of the military action.

The anonymous account, created on December 26, placed a series of wagers on four questions related to US actions in Venezuela in the days ahead of Trump’s operation.

The user bet more than $32,000 that Maduro would be removed from power by the end of January, when the “yes” position was trading at an average of 7 cents — implying a 7 per cent likelihood of his ousting. This market paid out at 100 cents when Maduro was flown out of the country on January 3, netting the trader a $400,000 profit. 

The account made smaller bets on the presence of US forces in Venezuela — buying at 12 cents and redeeming at 100 — and the submission of a War Powers act declaration to Congress — buying at about 5 and selling at 51 cents. 

The account also made a well-timed trade on the controversial “invade” market, betting $1,000 on January 1 when it was priced at 6 cents. The account sold at 18 cents while bettors were confused whether its terms were satisfied — locking in a 200 per cent return before the price fell back to 5 cents.

Congress member Ritchie Torres this week proposed legislation that would prohibit insiders “from engaging in covered transactions involving prediction market contracts”.

CrunchBase : Crunchbase Predicts: 15 Companies That Could Go Public In 2026 As T

Crunchbase Predicts: 15 Companies That Could Go Public In 2026 As The IPO Market Gains Momentum


After a prolonged slowdown, the IPO market is showing clearer signs of life. As our 2026 IPO outlook forecast details, improving public-market conditions, stabilizing interest rates and renewed investor appetite for growth are setting the stage for a wider reopening of the listing window.

Against that backdrop, a growing cohort of late-stage private companies now looks increasingly prepared to make the leap. Using Crunchbase’s predictive intelligence tools — which evaluate factors including funding history, growth signals, investor mix and market timing — we’ve curated a list of 15 companies across AI, enterprise software, fintech, space, defense, healthcare and consumer tech that could realistically go public in 2026, should market momentum continue to build.

AI and enterprise tech
Crusoe Energy Systems: When the window is open, you make your move. That’s something IPO market timers take to heart. But while well-funded private companies are aware of this cyclicality, actually prepping and orchestrating a public debut takes the kind of prep that doesn’t always align with the perfect window. That said, AI infrastructure unicorn Crusoe Energy Systems is certainly scaling in a direction that points to a public exit, a likelihood that Crunchbase predictions affirm with a “probable” rating on a listing for the Denver-based company. Crusoe closed on a $1.4 billion Series E in October at a valuation of more than $10 billion. With generative AI platforms currently expanding and investing at an unprecedented rate, the timing is certainly right for the kind of growth metrics IPO investors appreciate.
Databricks: Databricks has been on our list since the end of 2021, when it missed the IPO window. Crunchbase’s predictive tools label it a “very likely” IPO candidate and that makes sense. The 12-year-old, San Francisco-based company is well placed to go public. As of Q3, it announced it is growing more than 55% year over year, with an over $4.8 billion revenue run rate as of its December funding announcement. Of that revenue, $1 billion was from its AI products. Net retention was above 140% and the company has been free cash flow positive for more than 12 months. Its valuation in recent months has soared. It was valued at $100 billion in September and in December at $134 billion in a round led by Insight Partners and public market investors Fidelity and J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
Cohere: Competition among model developers is heating up. AI lab Anthropic has reportedly engaged Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosatii to begin to explore an IPO, according to the Financial Times. While 2026 might be too early for Anthropic to go public, another, less-known model developer could make a public-market debut this year. Cohere, co-headquartered in Toronto and San Francisco, focuses on supporting sovereign and secure AI for enterprise and governments. Its customers hail from across North America, APAC and EMEA, and include Oracle, Dell and Royal Bank of Canada. Aidan Gomez, its founder and CEO, spoke at a Bloomberg event in London expressing an interest in a public listing in the near future for the 6-year-old company, which was recently valued at $7 billion with $150 million in annual recurring revenue. Crunchbase predicts it is a “probable” IPO candidate.
Canva: Design platform Canva is another strong contender to go public in 2026. The 13-year-old Sydney, Australia-based company was valued at $42 billion in its most recent funding — a share sale for employees led by public market investor Fidelity. As of its August 2025 funding, Canva’s annualized revenue has reached $3.3 billion. The company, which Crunchbase bills a “probable” IPO candidate, claimed 240 million monthly users designing with its tools at that time. And adding further validation of Canva’s public-market readiness, competitor Figma went public in July 2024 at a valuation of $16.1 billion. (Although, Figma’s stock is slightly up as of mid-December but remains well below its first-day massive IPO pop of 255%.) As of Q3, Figma, by comparison, has reached $1 billion in annual revenue run rate.
Quantinuum: Before the AI boom, quantum computing was the hot, capital-intensive tech that got VCs and technologists excited. While AI has eclipsed investor interest in quantum, the latter continues to draw big checks from investors, who see enormous potential for the technology to facilitate breakthroughs in areas ranging from drug discovery to cybersecurity and defense. At least one quantum startup is actively mulling an IPO. That’s Quantinuum, which Crunchbase labels a “probable” IPO candidate. That prediction squares with other reporting, including a March 2025 Barron’s report that cited a source with direct knowledge of the matter saying parent company Honeywell is aiming for a 2026 or 2027 listing. The Broomfield, Colorado-based startup, formed in 2021 via the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum, has raised $925 million from venture investors to date, including a $600 million Nvidia-backed Series B in August at a $10 billion pre-money valuation.
Space and defense tech
K2 Space: Space tech has been a strong area for venture investment of late, and with the prospect of a SpaceX IPO in 2026, it’s an increasingly buzzy sector for public markets as well. Among recently funded startups in the sector, Torrance, California-based K2 Space is a standout on several fronts. For one, it’s a fundraising machine, securing more than $400 million across three rounds since 2024. That culminated in a $250 Series C led by Redpoint last month at a $3 billion valuation. The company, founded in 2022, develops large, high-power satellite platforms and has secured $500 million in signed contracts across commercial and U.S. government customers. Crunchbase predicts it’s “probable” that the startup will IPO.
SpaceX: This one is kind of a gimme. Late last year, Elon Musk-led SpaceX was reported to be eyeing an IPO that would be the largest VC-backed listing of all time — by about 10x — at a target valuation of $1.5 trillion. The company is already one of the most valuable private businesses in the world. Its reported IPO ambitions make a lot of sense, given the capital-intensive nature of space exploration, aforementioned investor appetite for space tech, and its revenue: an estimated $15 billion in 2025, much of it from its fast-growing StarLink satellite internet business. Founded in 2002, SpaceX has raised nearly $12 billion in its lifetime, according to Crunchbase, which pegs a “very likely” IPO probability on the Hawthorne, California-based company. Investors include Andreessen Horowitz, Sequoia Capital, Craft Ventures, Valor Equity Partners and Founders Fund, among others.
Anduril Industries: Venture investment into defense tech hit an all-time high last year, and no company received more money than Anduril. Of the more than $7.7 billion that flowed to defense-related startups in 2025, roughly a third went to Anduril in its $2.5 billion Series G at a $30.5 billion valuation. The startup, founded in 2017 by Oculus founder Palmer Luckey, is well-connected in the Trump administration and has been the beneficiary of the U.S. military’s efforts to modernize its defense and war technologies, including a contract with the DoD to supply VR/AR headsets to the U.S. Army. The company has raised $6.3 billion to date from investors including Founders Fund, the U.S. Department of Defense, Andreessen Horowitz and General Catalyst. The Costa Mesa, California-based company is deemed a “very likely” IPO candidate.
Health and consumer tech
Innovaccer: Innovaccer, provider of AI-enabled data and intelligence platform for healthcare providers, hits a lot of the checklist items we see in pre-IPO startups. It’s been around for a while (founded in 2014), raised considerable capital, secured a big Series F early this year, and has high-profile strategic backers including Kaiser Permanente. With 1,200 employees across five global offices, San Francisco-based Innovaccer is also a fairly large operation at this point, and certainly looks scaled enough for a public market debut, all factors that contribute to its “probable” IPO prediction from Crunchbase.
Nothing: Hardware-maker Nothing is taking a more unconventional path to a potential IPO. The London-based startup is working to be “IPO-ready” in three years, CEO and co-founder Carl Pei told TechCrunch last month. In the meantime the company is giving fans of its smartphones and other gadgets a chance to invest at a $1.3 billion Series C valuation via platforms like Wefunder and Crowdcube. “The timing will depend on market conditions and what makes sense for the business at that point in time,” Pei told the publication. Crunchbase puts a “probable” prediction on an IPO for Nothing, which has reportedly posted fast growth, particularly in markets like India, the U.K. and Japan. The company has said it hit more than $1 billion in lifetime sales last year and has sold more than 7 million devices. Along with its crowdfunding campaigns, Nothing has raised more than $446 million from venture investors including Tiger Global Management and GV, per Crunchbase.
Cybersecurity
Huntress: Cybersecurity has long been one of the most robust and predictable areas for venture investment. One of the faster-growing startups in the sphere is Huntress, which offers cybersecurity products for small and medium-sized businesses that don’t have the resources for a fully staffed 24/7 security team. Crunchbase pins a “probable” IPO prediction on the company, and CEO Kyle Hanslovan has also indicated a Huntress listing is a strong possibility in coming years. Interviewed on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in late October, he said that the Columbia, Maryland-based company has posted 60% year-over-year growth and is on track to hit $185 million to $190 million in revenue this year. Demand for its offerings has only increased as generative AI has aided scammers and hackers to craft more sophisticated phishing and other cyber attacks, he said. The company has raised nearly $310 million from investors to date, per Crunchbase, including a June 2024 Series D led by Kleiner Perkins, Meritech Capital Partners and Sapphire Ventures.
Ledger: Crunchbase says it’s “probable” that crypto wallet startup Ledger will IPO. That’s down from a “very likely” prediction last year, but other signs continue to point to the likelihood of an offering for the Paris-based startup, which provides a hardware wallet to secure crypto private keys. That means Ledger, founded in 2014, is well-positioned at the intersection of two currently hot industries: cybersecurity and blockchain. It has raised some $577 million from venture investors including Molten Ventures and Samsung Ventures, per Crunchbase. CEO Pascal Gauthier told European tech publication Sifted in mid-2025 that Ledger is actively thinking about a U.S. stock market debut, likely within the next three years. He reiterated that an IPO is actively under consideration in an interview with Financial Times last year, adding that the company’s revenue had hit triple-digit millions in 2025 amid soaring demand for secure crypto storage devices spurred by rising hacks. Ledger secures about $100 billion worth of bitcoin for its customers, he said. Gauthier has previously said an estimated 20% of the world’s crypto assets are protected by his company’s wallets.
Fintech
Plaid: With a “very likely” IPO prediction from Crunchbase, 2026 could be the year that Plaid, a fintech company that connects bank accounts to financial applications, finally decides to go public. In April, the company sold about $575 million worth of common stock at a $6.1 billion post-money valuation. At the time, Plaid told TechCrunch that it would not go public in 2025, but confirmed that an IPO was a milestone the company continued “to track towards.” The startup has not revealed specifics around revenue, noting only that 2025 was a record-setting year in which revenue grew over 25%. Plaid has raised about $1.3 billion from investors such as Andreessen Horowitz, Franklin Templeton, BoxGroup, Index Ventures and BlackRock.
Revolut: Revolut, a digital bank based in London, is a “very likely” candidate for an initial public offering, per Crunchbase predictions. In November, it completed a secondary share sale, boosting its valuation to $75 billion. That was a 67% jump compared to the $45 billion that Revolut was valued at in August 2024 when it announced a separate secondary share sale to provide liquidity to employees. Investors include Coatue, Greenoaks, Dragoneer Investment Group, Fidelity Management & Research Co., Nvidia’s venture capital arm NVentures, Andreessen Horowitz and Franklin Templeton. Revolut has seen impressive growth since its 2015 inception. In 2025, it achieved $1 billion in annualized revenue and surpassed a 65 million customer base across 100 countries. The company likely won’t IPO until it secures its full U.K. banking license, for which it is still awaiting approval.
Monzo: Monzo, another U.K.-based banking platform, is also said to be eyeing an IPO in 2026 and Crunchbase pegs a “very likely” prediction for an offering too. Timing of the IPO is so sensitive for the company now that its CEO TS Anil was pushed out of the head role due to his reported attempts at a listing earlier than some directors apparently wanted. He also reportedly indicated he might leave soon after. In June, Monzo reported revenue of more than $1.35 billion and “a sharp rise” in annual profit. It also increased its customer base by 25% to 12.2 million in its last fiscal year. The company was valued at $5.9 billion in October 2024 after selling shares to a group of existing investors. Backers include General Catalyst, HSG, Accel, Stripe and Thrive Capital.
An IPO prediction is never a promise. But as market conditions shift and investor appetite broadens, these companies are flashing more of the signals that tend to precede a public offering.
Met

WSJ : Eli Lilly, AI Drug-Discovery Company Nimbus Partner on Oral Obesity Treatm

Eli Lilly, AI Drug-Discovery Company Nimbus Partner on Oral Obesity Treatment
Nimbus, an artificial-intelligence drug-discovery company, says that it is eligible for upfront and near-term milestone payments totaling $55 million

  • Eli Lilly and Nimbus Therapeutics have partnered to develop an oral obesity treatment.
  • Nimbus said it is eligible for upfront and near-term milestone payments totaling $55 million, as well as up to $1.3 billion in development, commercial and sales milestones.
  • Pharmaceutical companies are accelerating oral weight-loss treatments following the success of GLP-1 medications.

Eli Lilly LLY 1.43%increase; green up pointing triangle and Nimbus Therapeutics have entered into a multi-year collaboration and exclusive licensing agreement to develop an oral treatment for obesity and other metabolic diseases.

Nimbus, an artificial-intelligence drug-discovery company, said Tuesday that it is eligible for upfront and near-term milestone payments totaling $55 million, as well as up to $1.3 billion in development, commercial and sales milestones along with tiered royalties on global net sales.

The partnership comes as pharmaceutical companies are racing to develop and market orally-administered weight-loss treatments, inspired by the runaway success of GLP-1 treatments.

Novo Nordisk shares jumped after the company said its Wegovy weight-loss pills, the first GLP-1 pill approved specifically for weight loss, had hit pharmacies across the U.S.

Lilly, which makes the diabetes and weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound, is also developing an experimental GLP-1 weight-loss pill.

Lilly shares were trading up 1.7%, to $1,059.45, early Tuesday afternoon.

Nimbus and Lilly have previously collaborated on targeting AMPK in cardiometabolic diseases.

“We are pleased to deepen our collaboration with Nimbus, a team that has demonstrated exceptional ability to tackle complex drug discovery challenges,” said Ruth Gimeno, vice president of Lilly’s diabetes and metabolic research and development group.

“Working together to develop this novel obesity therapy represents an important addition to Lilly’s efforts to advance innovative treatment options for patients with metabolic disorders,” Gimeno added.