>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Airbnb (ABNB) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $141
    • Air Products & Chemicals (APD) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities, tgt $275
    • Alphabet (GOOGL) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $370
    • Chubb (CB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $351
    • Coinbase Global (COIN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $340
    • Elevance Health (ELV) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $425
    • Enhabit Home Health & Hospice (EHAB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, tgt $12
    • Figma (FIG) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $52
    • Ford Motor (F) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $16
    • Fortrea (FTRE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist, tgt $22
    • Gap (GAP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, tgt $41
    • Generac Holdings (GNRC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $207
    • General Motors (GM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $98
    • HF Sinclair (DINO) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $68
    • J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna, tgt $240
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $220
    • Merck (MRK) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $135
    • Nurix Therapeutics (NRIX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $36
    • Omnicell (OMCL) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc, tgt $60
    • PBF Energy (PBF) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $40
    • Progressive (PGR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $265
    • Repsol (REPYY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
    • Roku (ROKU) upgraded to Outperform from In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $145
    • Steven Madden (SHOO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham, tgt $50
    • Stellantis (STLA) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $15
    • Terreno Realty (TRNO) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $64
    • TotalEnergies (TTE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
    • Tyson Foods (TSN) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital, tgt $67
    • Wabtec (WAB) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $245
    • Yum! Brands (YUM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Gordon Haskett
  • Downgrades:
    • AbbVie (ABBV) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Absci (ABSI) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $4.32
    • Alcoa (AA) downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $50
    • AMH (AMH) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $32
    • Arcus Biosciences (RCUS) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $20
    • Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $204
    • Ball Corp. (BALL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $63
    • BorgWarner (BWA) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $51
    • Clarivate (CLVT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $3.60
    • Contineum Therapeutics (CTNM) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $14
    • Darden Restaurants (DRI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $207
    • Digital Realty Trust (DLR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities, tgt $170
    • Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research, tgt $80
    • Exelixis (EXEL) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $48
    • ICON plc (ICLR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist, tgt $222
    • Intuit (INTU) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $700
    • Invitation Homes (INVH) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $27
    • IO Biotech (IOBT) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $0.36
    • J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $221
    • Leidos Holdings (LDOS) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel, tgt $220
    • Logitech International (LOGI) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $106
    • Marqeta (MQ) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Marqeta (MQ) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $4.50
    • Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $175
    • Nike (NKE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
    • PotlatchDeltic (PCH) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital, tgt $45
    • Prologis (PLD) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $130
    • Ryder System (R) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Saia (SAIA) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Sigma Lithium (SGML) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities, tgt $13
    • Toast (TOST) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) downgraded to Hold from Accumulate at Gordon Haskett, tgt $50
    • Travelers (TRV) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $304
    • Unilever (UL) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at BNP Paribas Exane, tgt $71
    • UPS (UPS) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Vale (VALE) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at Scotiabank, tgt $15
    • Vestis (VSTS) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman, tgt $5.30
    • XPO (XPO) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • XPO (XPO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $171
  • Others:
    • Bicara Therapeutics (BCAX) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research, tgt $28
    • Bread Financial Holdings (BFH) initiated with a Buy at UBS, tgt $92
    • Capri Holdings (CPRI) resumed with a Neutral at Goldman, tgt $27
    • Equinor (EQNR) reinstated with a Hold at Jefferies
    • Evommune (EVMN) initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James, tgt $40
    • Figma (FIG) initiated with a Hold at Stifel, tgt $40
    • Intuit (INTU) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $802
    • Polaris Industries (PII) initiated with a Buy at Seaport Research, tgt $83
    • Reddit (RDDT) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald, tgt $240
    • Rithm Capital (RITM) resumed with a Buy at UBS, tgt $16
    • Tyler Technologies (TYL) initiated with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $550

WSJ : U.S. Shipyard Key to Trump’s American Revival Is Already Too Busy

U.S. Shipyard Key to Trump’s American Revival Is Already Too Busy
‘More space’ needed at Korean-owned Philadelphia site, with talks under way to potentially make U.S. naval vessels

  • Hanwha, owner of Philly Shipyard, plans to invest $5 billion to increase annual output from one or two vessels to 20.
  • Hanwha is in discussions with U.S. government officials to expand capacity and property in the Philadelphia region due to high demand.
  • Hanwha Defense USA has partnered with HavocAI to develop 200-foot unmanned surface vessels, aiming for U.S. Navy supplier arrangements.

SEOUL—The new South Korean owner of the historic Philly Shipyard has a problem: too much demand.

It was just over a year ago that Hanwha Ocean 042660 7.01%increase; green up pointing triangle, one of the world’s largest shipbuilders, bought the Philadelphia facility, a storied naval yard that has shriveled under competition from Asian competitors, particularly in China.

Today, Philly Shipyard is central to President Trump’s goal of reviving American shipbuilding and enlarging the U.S. Navy’s fleet. Hanwha, which has deep pockets and extensive shipbuilding know-how, has vowed to plow $5 billion into upgrades and dramatically multiply the workforce.

Hanwha is already in active conversations with the Trump administration, and primarily the Pentagon, for potential deals to make surface, subsurface and unmanned vessels, said Michael Coulter, who heads Hanwha Defense USA, the U.S. subsidiary of the South Korean conglomerate that makes ships, munitions and other military hardware.

But first, “we simply need more space,” he said.

The company aims to ultimately crank out up to 20 ships a year in Philadelphia, up from annual output of just one or two vessels recently. It plans to bring in modernized manufacturing methods—such as automation and robotics—from the firm’s world-class South Korean operations.

But Coulter said it appears the manufacturing need will exceed the capacity of the two docks it currently owns in Philadelphia. To accommodate more volume, Hanwha is in active discussions with multiple federal, state and local officials about opportunities to expand capacity and property for storage around the Philadelphia region.

That includes potentially gaining access to the unused or underutilized docks at the sprawling Philadelphia shipyard that Hanwha doesn’t own. Hanwha is also exploring arrangements where the company’s excess orders could be built at other shipyards’ docks, Coulter added.

“From a demand standpoint,” he said, “every time we turn around there is an interest in using Philly.”

Hanwha is also seriously considering a purchase of a second U.S. shipyard in another region within the next several years, Coulter said: “We think there’s a unique time in history right now.”

Hanwha has pre-existing orders of nearly 20 vessels at the Philadelphia site. That includes commercial ships, including a big order from the shipping subsidiary of Hanwha, as well as vessels for the U.S. Maritime Administration, a federal agency within the Transportation Department.

It also could include construction of a nuclear-powered submarine for the South Korean navy. In October, Trump said the stealthy submarine—technology that required U.S. signoff—would be built in Philadelphia. But Seoul has argued for the vessel to be constructed in South Korea.

Coulter said Hanwha is fully capable of making submarines in the U.S. or South Korea, adding that the decision will be left to the two governments.

The potential interest in expanding the manufacturing footprint in Philadelphia is highlighted by a new partnership, set to be announced Thursday, between Hanwha Defense USA and HavocAI, a Rhode Island-based firm specializing in the software for sea drones.

The two companies hope to win supplier arrangements with the U.S. Navy for hundreds of these autonomous surface vessels, which can shoot missiles, ferry cargo and conduct surveillance, said Paul Lwin, CEO of HavocAI. The Trump administration has recently earmarked more than $3 billion for medium and small surface sea drones.

The new partnership with HavocAI could add more work in Philadelphia. HavocAI has already sold more than 30 of its smaller autonomous surface vessels to the U.S. military. The two companies will collaborate on the development of 200-foot unmanned vessels.

“Hanwha knows how to design vessels, so that’s the expertise Hanwha brings,” said Lwin, a former U.S. Navy weapon systems officer, who co-founded HavocAI two years ago.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • ACON +24%, GMED +9.1%, NOC +7.5%, LMT +6.8%, LHX +6.4%, APLD +6.1%, GD +5.4%, PHAR +4.8%, UUUU +4.7%, RTX +4.6%, LENZ +3.7%, HII +3.3%, AZZ +2.8%, ANGI +2.6%, DVLT +2.2%, SMTI +2.1%, AREN +2%, STZ +2%, ABVX +1.9%, BA +1.7%, JCAP +1.6%, MBLY +1.6%, COST +1.5%, USFD +1.5%, KRMN +1.4%, HR +1.3%, TBRG +1.3%, PR +1%, TD +1%, OGN +1%, TXT +0.9%, ACIC +0.9%
  • Gapping down:
    • IMRX -22.6%, PHAT -13.7%, TFX -10.7%, FC -10.2%, RVMD -8.6%, FFAI -4.9%, CRNT -4.6%, CSIQ -4.2%, FSM -3.2%, PSMT -3.2%, RCUS -3%, DRUG -2.6%, SHEL -2.2%, SERA -2.1%, ABBV -1.5%, JEF -1.4%, GLUE -1.1%, JD -0.9%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of January 2026 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Adyen Raised to Outperform at Wolfe (+)
* Aedifica Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Airbnb Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT $141
* Alphabet Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $370
* Amadeus Raised to Buy at Alantra Equities; PT 75.90 euros (+)
* Atea Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 180 kroner
* Bellway Raised to Buy at BofA (+)
* Berkeley Raised to Neutral at BofA (+)
* BNP Paribas Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 103 euros
* Boliden Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 530 kronor
* Boliden Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 565 kronor
* Catena Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 440 kronor
* Cofinimmo Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* CTP Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 21 euros
* Ford Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $16 (++)
* General Motors Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $98 (++)
* Iberdrola PT Raised to 20.95 euros from 19.40 euros at UBS (++)
* National Bank of Greece Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
* Puig Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 18 euros
* Puig ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $10.50
* Rational Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 790 euros
* Repsol Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 19 euros
* Rockwool Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT 240 kroner
* Shurgard Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 36 euros
* Sobi Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 450 kronor
* Stellantis Raised to Overweight at Piper Sandler; PT $15 (++)
* TotalEnergies Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 66 euros
* Viscofan Raised to Buy at CaixaBank BPI; PT 65.30 euros (++)
* Volvo Upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs

>>> Down
* Alcoa Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $50
* Antofagasta Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,800 pence
* BASF Raised to Buy at M.M. Warburg; PT 53 euros (+)
* Bucher Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 397 Swiss francs
* Carmila Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 18.50 euros
* Carnival Plc Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 2,300 pence (+)
* Colonial SFL Socimi Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Covivio Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 58 euros
* Ebro Foods Cut to Neutral at CaixaBank BPI; PT 19.70 euros (++)
* Ericsson Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 97 kronor
* Essity Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 290 kronor
* Galp Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 12.20 euros
* Icade Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Ipsen Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 125 euros
* Logitech Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 85 Swiss francs
* Mondi Cut to Hold at Goodbody; PT 965 pence (+)
* Oxford Nanopore Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 140 pence (+)
* Randstad Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 26 euros
* Saint-Gobain Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 78 euros
* Segro Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Solvay Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
* Unilever Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 5,300 pence
* Unilever ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $71
* VGP Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 97 euros

>>> Initiation
* BMW Rated New Underweight at Oxcap; PT 90 euros
* Danone Reinstated Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 86.59 euros (+)
* Exosens SAS Rated New Buy at William O'Neil (+)
* Infineon Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Mercedes Rated New Neutral at Oxcap; PT 65 euros
* Nestle Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander (+)
* Porsche Rated New Neutral at Oxcap; PT 48 euros
* PVA TePla Rated New Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 31 euros (+)
* Renault Rated New Underweight at Oxcap; PT 34 euros
* Safran Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil (++)
* Solaria Energia Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Stellantis Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 12 euros
* VW Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 132 euros

>>> Call
* AHOLD DELHAIZE PLACED ON NEGATIVE CATALYST WATCH AT JPMORGAN (+)
* Bernstein Not ‘Ready to Give Up on Chemicals Yet,’ Solvay Cut
* Boliden Raised to Hold at JPMorgan on Increasing Gold Leverage
* Bucher’s End Markets Under Pressure, Cut to Hold at Berenberg (+)
* European Investment Banks Set for Good Quarterly Earnings: MS
* Goldman: Silver faces continued 'extreme price swings' as the metal may stay stuck in the wrong places
* Goldman Strategists Say High Valuations Put Equities at Risk (++)
* Goldman Strategists See Better 1H Growth Driving Risk Appetite (++)
* Jefferies Sees ‘Cautious Optimism’ in European Real Estate
* Jefferies Downgrades Galp, Upgrades TotalEnergies and Repsol (+)
* Logitech Downgraded at BNP Paribas on Memory Price Rise Impact
* OVH Groupe Surges as Morgan Stanley Flags Reasssuring 1Q Results (++)
* PVA TePla Jumps as Metzler Initiates at Buy on Metrology Shift (++)
* Rational Raised to Buy at Berenberg on Growth Potential (+)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of January 2026 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Adyen Raised to Outperform at Wolfe (+)
* Aedifica Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Airbnb Raised to Neutral at Cantor; PT $141
* Alphabet Raised to Overweight at Cantor; PT $370
* Amadeus Raised to Buy at Alantra Equities; PT 75.90 euros (+)
* Atea Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 180 kroner
* Bellway Raised to Buy at BofA (+)
* Berkeley Raised to Neutral at BofA (+)
* BNP Paribas Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 103 euros
* Boliden Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 530 kronor
* Boliden Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 565 kronor
* Catena Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 440 kronor
* Cofinimmo Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* CTP Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 21 euros
* National Bank of Greece Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
* Puig Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 18 euros
* Puig ADRs Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $10.50
* Rational Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 790 euros
* Repsol Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 19 euros
* Rockwool Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT 240 kroner
* Shurgard Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 36 euros
* Sobi Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 450 kronor
* TotalEnergies Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 66 euros
* Volvo Upgraded to Buy from Neutral by Goldman Sachs

>>> Down
* Alcoa Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $50
* Antofagasta Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,800 pence
* BASF Raised to Buy at M.M. Warburg; PT 53 euros (+)
* Bucher Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 397 Swiss francs
* Carmila Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 18.50 euros
* Carnival Plc Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 2,300 pence (+)
* Colonial SFL Socimi Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Covivio Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 58 euros
* Ericsson Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 97 kronor
* Essity Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 290 kronor
* Galp Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 12.20 euros
* Icade Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Ipsen Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 125 euros
* Logitech Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 85 Swiss francs
* Mondi Cut to Hold at Goodbody; PT 965 pence (+)
* Oxford Nanopore Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 140 pence (+)
* Randstad Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 26 euros
* Saint-Gobain Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 78 euros
* Segro Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Solvay Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
* Unilever Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 5,300 pence
* Unilever ADRs Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT $71
* VGP Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 97 euros

>>> Initiation
* BMW Rated New Underweight at Oxcap; PT 90 euros
* Danone Reinstated Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 86.59 euros (+)
* Exosens SAS Rated New Buy at William O'Neil (+)
* Infineon Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Mercedes Rated New Neutral at Oxcap; PT 65 euros
* Nestle Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander (+)
* Porsche Rated New Neutral at Oxcap; PT 48 euros
* PVA TePla Rated New Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 31 euros (+)
* Renault Rated New Underweight at Oxcap; PT 34 euros
* Solaria Energia Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Stellantis Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 12 euros
* VW Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 132 euros

>>> Call
* AHOLD DELHAIZE PLACED ON NEGATIVE CATALYST WATCH AT JPMORGAN (+)
* Bernstein Not ‘Ready to Give Up on Chemicals Yet,’ Solvay Cut
* Boliden Raised to Hold at JPMorgan on Increasing Gold Leverage
* Bucher’s End Markets Under Pressure, Cut to Hold at Berenberg (+)
* European Investment Banks Set for Good Quarterly Earnings: MS
* Goldman: Silver faces continued 'extreme price swings' as the metal may stay stuck in the wrong places
* Jefferies Sees ‘Cautious Optimism’ in European Real Estate
* Jefferies Downgrades Galp, Upgrades TotalEnergies and Repsol (+)
* Logitech Downgraded at BNP Paribas on Memory Price Rise Impact
* Rational Raised to Buy at Berenberg on Growth Potential (+)

FT : Top private equity groups capture largest fundraising share in a decade

Top private equity groups capture largest fundraising share in a decade
The 10 biggest funds took nearly half of investment capital as concentration increases for established managers

The top-10 private equity funds have taken their largest share of US fundraising in more than a decade last year, as institutional investors rein in commitments and back larger managers amid lacklustre distributions.

These funds accounted for 46 per cent of all US private equity capital raised through September 30 — the highest share since 2014 — up from 34.5 per cent in 2024, according to PitchBook data.

The concentration has coincided with a 17 per cent increase in fundraising by the top-10 funds in North America through December 17 compared with 2024, while fundraising by the rest of the market fell 12 per cent over the same period, according to Preqin, another financial information provider.

Private equity groups, including Advent International, KKR, Thoma Bravo, Blackstone and Bain Capital, have each raised more than $10bn last year for new buyout funds, according to public filings.

The bifurcation underscores how a broader slowdown in private equity has reshaped investor behaviour. Institutional investors, led by pension funds and sovereign wealth funds, have focused their PE allocations on large managers with stable performance.

Hugh MacArthur, global private equity practice chair at Bain, said: “Investors really are feeling like they only can commit to those funds where they have to put money to work and those tend to be the larger funds that represent a safe pair of hands.”

The growing dominance of large funds in PE capital raising has come as the industry has struggled to return cash to investors amid a slowdown in initial public offerings and dealmaking. The distribution rate of buyout funds globally fell to 11 per cent in the second quarter of last year, down from 28 per cent in 2021, according to MSCI.

The underperformance has prompted many asset managers to slow or scale back their allocations to private equity.

The chief investment officer of a public pension plan with more than $20bn in assets said the fund had reduced its exposure to smaller private equity managers after struggling to “get money back” from earlier investments.

“We need some run-off from our existing portfolio,” he said. 

Bain’s MacArthur said a lack of differentiation and resources was putting many PE funds at a further disadvantage in raising capital.

“If you’re in a good relationship with investors and you’ve been around for a long time, but I don’t see anything special in terms of your ability to generate excess returns, those are the folks that are in the most trouble,” he said.

By contrast, leading private equity firms are having less difficulty raising capital, even as the industry grapples with weak distributions. Scott Nuttall, co-chief executive of KKR, said the group was having “a record fundraising year”, adding that it was raising large private equity funds amid “quite a bit of demand around the world”.

Asset managers, particularly larger ones, have traditionally worked with private equity firms able to accommodate sizeable investment commitments.

Bruce MacDonald, chief investment officer of VCU Investment Management, said: “If you need to write a $1bn cheque, there are only a handful of fund groups that can actually handle that size.”

The trend has intensified as many institutional investors have begun severing ties with underperforming private equity managers and concentrating their resources on well-established groups they believe are better positioned to weather the downturn.

“We believe our private equity managers have staying power and are not going away, given their diversified asset bases and global footprints,” said an executive at a second pension plan that invested in several large PE funds last year. “If there are problems, they can be fixed.”

The executive added large PE funds tended to invest in more mature companies that can be “more stable in a challenging world”.

Yet some asset managers warned the shift towards large private equity groups could come at the expense of returns, as the sheer scale of capital makes it harder to generate excess performance.

MacDonald said while VCU did not invest heavily in private equity, it would favour small and mid-sized managers if it did, arguing returns in that segment were more dispersed and that the strongest funds there could outperform the best large-cap managers.

“There’s plenty of bad funds in the lower middle markets,” he said, referring to smaller PE managers. “But if you find a good fund, your upside is going to be a lot greater.”

FT : Brussels plans special rule book for corporates outside national law

Brussels plans special rule book for corporates outside national law
Proposal would create a voluntary ‘28th regime’ for companies to operate across EU

Brussels is pressing ahead with plans for a supranational legal regime for EU companies, defying critics who fear creating businesses with a special rule book outside national law will dilute worker rights and disempower regulators.

Michael McGrath, the EU’s justice commissioner, told the Financial Times that he was drawing up a proposal for a new voluntary regulatory regime, not tied to a member state, that would be a viable option for as many European companies as possible.

His decision to push ahead with the plan comes in the wake of almost four decades of on-off attempts in Brussels to create an attractive structure — alongside national company laws — that allows businesses and entrepreneurs to operate more easily across the continent.

“If we are serious about deepening the integration of the single market and removing the barriers to companies being founded and having the potential to grow to a global scale with Europe as their base, this is a crucial instrument and a step that we must take,” said McGrath.

Entrepreneurs in Europe struggle with a fragmented tax and regulatory landscape, and face difficulties accessing capital and attracting talent beyond their home country.

Given the challenge of harmonising all 27 national systems, landmark reports by Mario Draghi, former European Central Bank president, and former Italian premier Enrico Letta both called for an innovative “28th” regime offering an innovative alternative on basic tax, insolvency and labour rules.

McGrath is planning to unveil the proposal, addressing specific barriers for companies in those areas, in late March.

The aim, he said, was for businesses to be able to opt into a legal entity with low or no minimum capital requirements and online incorporation within 48 hours.

The regime would offer clear rules on governance, creditor safeguards, share issuance and transfer, liquidation, as well as digital procedures for capital increase and unified tax treatment of employee stock options.

The measures, which the start-up community has long called for, would also likely be proposed as a regulation rather than a directive — meaning the regime would have full force without needing to be transposed into national law in every member state.

“My instinct is to prefer a regulation rather than a directive,” McGrath said, adding that there was otherwise “a real risk of ending up with 27 versions of the 28th regime”.

Attempts to create an EU-wide company statute have long faced resistance from trade unions. Ambitious plans have also fallen foul of European capitals that are wary of creating an attractive alternative legal home for companies in their country.

The existing “Societas Europaea” statute, a legal form of public company designed to work across the EU, was first proposed in 1988 and took effect in 2004 following years of hard negotiations.

“The SE is a bit like a Frankenstein monster, where you have tied a lot of different body parts. You have a core that is European but then there are 27 different regimes attached to it,” said Anne Sanders, chair of the law faculty at Bielefeld University in Germany.

It has since been adopted by more than 3,000 companies, including Airbus, Allianz, Dior, Porsche and TotalEnergies, but it has been criticised for undermining workers’ rights in jurisdictions such as Germany, which have strong employees’ representation rules.

Objections from member states killed past reform initiatives, including a 2008 push for simpler cross-border rules for small and medium-sized companies, and a 2014 proposal for one-person businesses.

McGrath has pledged that the 28th regime “will not in any way be a vehicle for the diminution of labour rights across the EU” but trade unions remain fearful it would undermine workers’ rights.

“The need for companies to be able to operate around the EU would be very welcome . . . only if it isn’t to the detriment of working people, their pay rights and entitlements,” said Esther Lynch, general secretary of ETUC, representing European trade unions.

“I hope that those lessons have been learnt and the problems aren’t amplified by the 28th company regime,” she added.

Another issue is whether the regime will be limited to a narrow range of companies, such as start-ups, or be available to existing corporates, regardless of size.

McGrath said his aim was to make eligibility as wide as possible. “I want as many companies as possible in the EU to have the opportunity to avail [themselves] of this 28th regime,” he said.

Proposing a broad scope risked member states balking at the reforms, fearing companies could pick their legal seat to lower workers’ rights or pay less taxes, said Claudia-Dominique Geiser, senior expert on EU economic policy at Bertelsmann Foundation.

McGrath prefers the reforms to be introduced as a regulation, which would be directly applicable across the EU. But such an approach may require member states to agree to the reforms by unanimity, rather than a qualified majority.

René Repasi, an MEP responsible for shepherding the 28th regime through the European parliament, said seeking unanimity could result in never-ending negotiations and unworkable compromises.

“The risk of creating Frankenstein’s monster is higher than creating something that will fly on the market,” he said.

Repasi would prefer a directive that could be more quickly implemented. He has also floated the idea of a harmonised debt instrument for the 28th regime that would give investors more clarity on risks and repayment terms.

Sanders of Bielefeld University recommended policymakers go for what is safe, quick and pragmatic so it would “get us somewhere”. “We need something that really makes life easier for companies,” she said. “If we don’t achieve that goal and if we end up somewhere in confusion, then better not do it at all.”

FT : Bayer’s ambitions boosted by relaxation of EU gene-edited crop rules

Bayer’s ambitions boosted by relaxation of EU gene-edited crop rules
German life sciences giant says looser regulations could reshape Europe’s €6bn seed market

German life sciences giant Bayer believes a change to EU policy on gene-edited crops has the potential to reshape Europe’s €6bn seed market and vindicate its troubled acquisition of US rival Monsanto.

After several years of negotiation, EU institutions have agreed to relax rules that in effect banned gene-edited crops in Europe. The new policy, which requires final approval from governments and the EU parliament, divides plants into two groups.

Those with edits to the plant’s own genome, rather than with DNA inserted from another species, will be exempt from strict genetically modified organism rules. Plants of this type are already widely used in countries such as the US, Brazil and Japan. Crops with more extensive modifications remain subject to GMO rules.

The new policy, which is expected to come into force in 2026, is the first major loosening of European rules on genetic modifications in agriculture. “We’ve effectively had a 30-year conflict over agricultural biotechnology in Europe — and it is finally on the way to being settled,” said Matthias Berninger, Bayer’s head of public affairs and sustainability.

In 2024, the group’s crop science division accounted for about half of its €46.6bn of sales. In 2018, it acquired Monsanto in a $63bn deal that aimed to turn the group into a global leader in seeds and crop science.

But the merger has been overshadowed by billions of dollars of US legal claims linked to Monsanto’s Roundup weedkiller and by European resistance to genetically modified crops. 

Bayer’s market value has more than halved since the deal, forcing it to sell businesses and cut costs.

If approved, the EU policy change will not deliver an immediate financial boost. Bayer has so far avoided applying for EU field trials for gene-edited crops and Europe-grown products are unlikely to reach supermarkets before the next decade.

Executives argue, however, that the change is strategically important for a group that owns among the largest plant genetic data sets in the world following the Monsanto acquisition. “Likely no other company . . . knows more about the genome of individual plants than Bayer,” Berninger said.

Bayer has recently sought to protect the value of its scientific patents, launching US lawsuits against several Covid-19 vaccine makers over the alleged misuse of decades-old genetic technology developed by Monsanto.

Rivals including Corteva, BASF and Syngenta have also invested heavily in gene editing, while smaller European seed breeders say the rule changes could help them compete globally.

Bayer has identified particular opportunities in modified wheat and crops edited to require less nitrogen fertiliser, which would reduce costs for farmers and European reliance on Russian supplies.

Beyond Europe, Bayer views Africa as a key long-term market. “If Europe and the US align on this technology, we can bring it to Africa far faster than before,” Berninger said.

The current EU GMO regulations have been criticised as slow, costly and ill-suited to technological advances. Only a handful of GMOs have been authorised, mainly for animal feed, amid persistent public and political opposition.

The shift comes as farmers around the world grapple with the effects of climate change. Drought, extreme weather and crop diseases have hit yields, while Brussels has limited the use of fertilisers and pesticides.