Helsing’s ‘crazy’ valuation raises defence tech bubble concerns
German start-up’s fundraise gave it a higher revenue multiple than many US and European peers
Helsing’s latest landmark $1.8bn fundraising commanded a significantly higher valuation multiple than many of its US and European defence technology peers, roadshow documents seen by the FT show.
Based on forecast revenues of €441mn ($502mn) for 2026, the German start-up’s funding round valued the company at a multiple of 32 times revenue before the inclusion of capital raised this week. Its post-raise valuation of $18bn confirmed its status as one of Europe’s most valuable start-ups.
The revenue multiple is far higher than that of US defence tech start-ups such as Anduril, whose recent fundraising gave it a “pre-money” valuation of 13 times forward revenue, and Shield AI, whose $12.7bn valuation was done at 21 times.
European rivals such as Quantum Systems, another German AI-powered drone maker, have also attracted a lower valuation. Quantum’s $1.2bn funding round reflected a multiple of 8.5 times its forecast revenues of €700mn for 2026.
Johannes von Borries, a managing partner in German venture capital group UVC Partners, which has invested in defence companies but not in Helsing or its rivals, said $18bn looked “a very high valuation”.
“If you’re buying in at that level that means you are betting that the company is going to grow to multiple times that size. I am not convinced it can do that based solely on military technology. I’m not sure that European defence spending will continue to be high enough,” he added.
Helsing declined to comment on the revenue numbers seen by the FT. It said this week that investor demand “significantly” exceeded the equity offered.
However, the headline valuation has raised concerns among some competitors and investors at a time when the sector was gripped by a “raise race”, according to one sceptical executive from an established defence group.
“Quantum, Stark, Helsing . . . all are raising money like crazy — because it is there at the moment,” he said. “This feels somehow close to the dotcom bubble.”
Khaled Helioui, a partner at Plural, an early-stage investment fund and a backer of Helsing, told the FT that given Helsing’s rapid revenue growth, it was “more reasonable” to base its valuation on expected 2027 revenues of €753mn, giving the company a multiple of around 19 times.
Other industry experts said revenues were only one metric among several that influenced a company’s valuation, including profit margins.
Helsing chief financial officer Anita Szarek, who joined the company in May and was involved in the recent round, said it was important to understand that the company’s peers were not companies producing military drones or other weapons, but rather “high-growth, high-tech businesses” in the US.
She said AI-driven and software-defined technology was at the core of the company’s offering and, as such, Helsing’s “peers are US tech and defence tech companies like Palantir and Anduril”.
Founded in 2021, Helsing initially focused on producing AI software to analyse battlefield data. The company later branched into attack drones as well as autonomous underwater vessels and larger aircraft.
In February, it won a contract to supply its HX-2 lethal drone to the German armed forces, worth an initial €268mn but with the potential to be extended to as much as €1.46bn. German lawmakers this month approved a €223mn deal for it to build a combat cloud for the German air force.
Helsing has secured several prominent backers over the years, including Spotify founder Daniel Ek, General Catalyst and Sweden’s Saab. Before this latest round, the company was valued at €12bn in a round led by Ek.
The latest round was led by US investment group Dragoneer, which has backed companies including Uber and OpenAI. It also drew investment from the growth equity arm of Goldman Sachs Alternatives.
Helsing’s Szarek said the company had already secured the key contracts relevant for revenue in-year, and “most of the revenue 2027 is in the order book or in follow-on contracts”. Most of Helsing’s orders have so far come from the German government although the company stressed that not all were in the public domain.
Szarek said that prospective investors had asked “very thorough questions”. It was important to put valuations into context, she added, with defence tech being one of Europe’s fastest-growing sectors.
The company, she said, was aiming to become the leading European “neo-prime” — challenging or even overtaking established defence contractors such as Rheinmetall and BAE Systems.
Plural’s Helioui said the fund had done its own “extensive independent due diligence on the company” before investing this time, speaking to the military and competitors to cross-check the facts.
“On autonomy and drone warfare, we believe that Helsing has such a scale and velocity advantage versus all of the competitors that they are uniquely positioned. So that’s our bet. That they are going to be the defining player.”
Von Borries said that, if Helsing really could widen its focus and grow to become a European equivalent of the American tech giants, then an $18bn valuation might end up being far too modest.
“We see the vast growth of AI companies in the US. If Helsing can diversify and branch into dual-use applications in future, then maybe the valuation actually underestimates its potential.”