>>> What to look at today - 6th of July 2022

Stocks dipped in Asia on Wednesday as fears of an economic downturn lingered over financial markets, leaving the dollar hovering at the highest level in more than two years. Falls in Japan, China and Hong Kong hit Asian shares. US futureswavered after a volatile Wall Street session saw equities close up but with little conviction that global shares can escape the clutches of a bear market anytime soon. The prevailing worries about recession amid a campaign of monetary tightening to fight high inflation spurred a plunge in oil to under $100 a barrel on Tuesday. It struggled to retake that level in Asian trading. Treasuries slipped, leaving the US 10-year yield just above 2.80%. A dollar gauge was firm and the yen edged up amid the ongoing caution in markets. Bitcoin suffered another swoon, retreating below $20,000. Slivers of comfort such as the possible rowing back of some US tariffs on Chinese goods are proving no match for the dour mood in markets. A looming energy crisis in Europe amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and threats to company earnings from a slowing US economy are among the risks investors face. The odds of a US recession in the next year are now 38%, according to latest forecasts from Bloomberg Economics. Bond traders are penciling in a policy turnaround by the Federal Reserve, with current hawkishness giving way to interest-rate cuts in the middle of 2023. Elsewhere, the pound trimmed losses sparked by turmoil in British politics. Boris Johnson’s premiership is on the brink after the resignation of two of the most senior Cabinet members, but he’s digging in as UK prime minister. In China, Shanghai launched mass testing for Covid in nine districts after detecting cases the past two days, fueling concerns that the financial hub may once again find itself locked down in pursuit of Covid Zero. US After Hours KRNT -20.8% falls on weak guidance; BOC +3.5% higher on M&A news

Nikkei -1.4% Hang Seng -1.84% CSI -1.46% Shanghai -1.45% Shenzen -1.14%

Eur$ 1.0266 CNH 6.7083 CNY 6.7053 JPY 135.31 GBP 1.1965 CHF 0.9677 RUB 63.8043 TRY 17.0105 WTI$ 99.77 +0.29% Gold 1,770.80 +0.34% BTC 19,876 -2.76% ETH 1,123.35 -2.60%

S&P -0.39% Nasdaq -0.36% EuroStoxx +1.22% FTSE +1.09% Dax +1.12% SMI +0.52%

Macro :
- Copper Shares Fall as Metal Hits 19-Month Low on Recession Fears
- Tiger Global Posts June Gain, Paring This Year’s Drop to 50.1%
- Crypto Broker Voyager Seeks Bankruptcy as Mogul’s Lifeline Fails

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : Accor to Be Structured Around Two Divisions Starting October 1
- AF FP : Air France-KLM Buys 200 CFM LEAP-1A Engines for Airbus Fleet
- ASML NA : US Pushes for ASML to Stop Selling Chipmaking Gear to China
- AGL IM : Dufry-Autogrill Has Consolidation Talks Doing the Rounds Again
- CS FP : European Life Insurers to Reap Rewards From Interest Rates Rise
- BIM FP : Boehringer, Evotec, BioMerieux Form EU40M Antibiotics JV
- BNP FP : CFTC Orders BNP Paribas to Pay $6M for Swap Related Violations-
- COFB BB : Care-Ion Places 532,226 Cofinimmo Shares: Terms
- DUFN SW : Dufry-Autogrill Has Consolidation Talks Doing the Rounds Again
- EQNR NO : Norway Unions Agree to End Energy Strike as Soon as Possible
- EVT GY : Boehringer, Evotec, BioMerieux Form EU40M Antibiotics JV
- HOLN SW : Holcim to Buy Privately Held Cantillana; No Terms Disclosed
- ICAD FP : Icade Buys 6 Healthcare Facilities in Spain for EU60 Million
- LR FP : Legrand Gets Statement of Objections From Competition Authority
- MOY GR : Mynaric: L3Harris Subscribes to New Shares for EU27.3675/Share
- OXY US : Buffett Keeps Snapping Up Occidental When Stock Drops Below $60
- RXL FP : Rexel Gets Statement of Objections From Competition Authority
- ROG SW : Roche Granted FDA Priority Review to Genentech’s Mosunetuzumab
- SU FP : Schneider Electric Gets a Statement of Objections
- STR AV : Strabag Says Board Member Bull’s Withdrawal Challenged in Court
- TE FP : TechnipFMC Wins Equinor Brazil Contract Worth More Than $1b
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia Seeks Network Valuation of at Least EU25b: Rtrs

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6tb of July 2022

>>> Up
* Continental Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 70 euros
* Dechra Pharma Raised to Add at Numis; PT 4,000 pence
* Ion Beam Raised to Hold at ING; PT 18 euros
* Michelin Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 35 euros
* Rosenbauer Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 42 euros
* Sage Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 720 pence
* Sainsbury Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 210 pence

>>> Down
* Aalberts Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 40 euros
* Ashmore PT Cut to 170 pence from 200 pence at Berenberg
* Faurecia SE Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 15 euros
* HeidelbergCement Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 45 euros
* Intertek Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 4,700 pence
* Nordex Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 9 euros
* Profoto Holding Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken
* SAP Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 102 euros
* SAP ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $108
* Software AG Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 30 euros
* Swatch Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 250 Swiss francs
* Titan Cement Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 12 euros
* Valeo Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 20 euros
* Wienerberger Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 20 euros

>>> Initiation
* Ambea Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 75 kronor

>>> Call
* Ambea New Buy at Berenberg, Demographic Trends to Spur Demand
* Ashmore PT Cut to Street-Low at Berenberg as Problems Persist
* Intertek Cut on China Exposure, Prefer Bureau Veritas: Jefferies
* Sainsbury Upgraded at Bernstein With Bad News Now Priced In
* SEB a ‘Bulletproof Growth Story,’ Initiated Buy at Berenberg

>>> Wednesday Morning Papers Summary

Wednesday Morning Papers Summary


LA REPUBBLICA
-Under the weight of disputes and vetoes, the Italian government coalition is faltering. The M5S Movement, one of the government’s pillars, demands a so-called ‘superbonus’, the name of an income subsidy for all Italians: "Without the superbonus we will leave the government majority," said the M5S. Today the m5S leader, Giuseppe Conte, will meet Prime Minister Draghi. This is the latest episode of a broken majority, which has indeed already broken.
-The Italian Prime Minister Draghi met Turkish President Erdogan in an effort to strengthen Italo-Turkish bilateral relations with Washington’s blessing – in view of building diplomatic strength to tackle the Ukrainian crisis. Draghi and Erdogan have reportedly also made an attempt to overcome the disputes over Libya: both Rome and Ankara now see Libya’s stabilization as the priority.

FRANKFURTER ALLGEMEINE ZEITUNG
-Ukraine wants to join the industrialized countries organization OECD. Prime Minister Denys Schmyhal announced on Tuesday that he had submitted a corresponding application on behalf of the country. Ukraine's membership in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is "one of the cornerstones of successful reconstruction and development" of Ukraine, he said. Even before the war, Ukraine was considered one of the poorest countries in Europe in terms of per-capita income.
-The EU Parliament will decide whether investments in certain gas and nuclear power plants should be considered sustainable in the EU energy taxonomy. An absolute majority of 353 of the 705 MPs is needed to stop the regulation. The majority of the Greens, Social Democrats and Left Party announced that they would vote against the taxonomy. Europe still gets most of its gas from Russia. German Green MEP Michael Bloss warned: "Putin would be the big winner." The EPP group is divided. Should MEPs reject the plans, the EU Commission would either have to withdraw or amend the regulation.

HANDELSBLATT
-Western products continue to enter Russia, even as many companies have formally withdrawn from the country. Russia has legalized so-called parallel imports of more than 50 product groups. This is what is called imports without the consent of the manufacturer, which are usually processed via third countries that have not imposed any sanctions. A corresponding law of the State Duma from the end of June is valid until the end of the year. Russia had already created the legal basis in March with a regulation. Many German manufacturers are also on the list of products approved in this way: cars and spare parts from Mercedes Benz, VW, Tesla, ZF or Continental, household appliances from Miele and Philips, smartphones from Apple and Samsung, adhesives from Henkel or products used for the operation of production systems or trains are required, such as those produced by Siemens or Bosch.
-According to financial circles, the federal government is preparing to buy into Germany’s main gas trading company Uniper, which has fallen into crisis due to high energy prices. It has been suggested that the German federal government could subscribe to a package of new shares of up to 25% at a nominal value of EUR 1.70 per share certificate in a capital increase. That would correspond to some EUR150M.

In addition, according to circles, a silent participation by the federal government is under discussion, an equity instrument without voting rights. This could have a volume of between three and five billion euros.

IL SOLE 24 ORE
Grain diplomacy, with the aim of unlocking ports on the Black Sea to avert a dramatic food crisis. Together with the search for a new thrust of bilateral relations, to be achieved by balancing the common interests in the reconciliation process in Libya and building a more coordinated management of migrant flows. Ten years after the last summit in Rome, in 2012, Mario Draghi reached Ankara together with half the government to relaunch bilateral relations between Italy and Turkey, while the Russian invasion of Ukraine upset the geopolitical scenario and rewrote the international balance . At the opening of the joint press conference organized at the end of the meeting, the Turkish president offered the Prime Minister his condolences for the deceased from the Marmolada. The intergornative summit between Italy and Turkey "indicates the common will to strengthen collaboration: Italy and Turkey are partners, allied friends", underlined Draghi.
-The market is increasingly convinced that both Europe and the United States will go into recession. But they will do so at different times and probably with different intensities: Europe will get there sooner and perhaps harder, due to the gas crisis that is hitting in the short term. The United States later, given the Federal Reserve's aggressive policy to defeat inflation.
-Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks said last night that the Baltic state will restore compulsory military service, following mounting tension with neighboring Russia over Moscow's war in Ukraine. “Latvia's current military system has reached its limit. In the meantime, we have no reason to think that Russia will change its behavior,” Pabriks told reporters. Latvia had revoked its compulsory military service a few years after joining the NATO defense alliance. Since 2007, the EU member army has been made up of career soldiers, along with National Guard volunteers who serve part-time in the infantry on weekends. The country of less than two million people, which borders both Belarus and Russia, currently has only 7. 500 active duty soldiers and members of the National Guard, supported by 1,500 NATO soldiers. Pabriks said compulsory military service will apply to men and take effect next year, with several options available to meet the requirements.

LES ECHOS
-Panic over oil prices. This July 5 is a black day for black gold. The American WTI closed the session down more than 8%, falling below the threshold of $100/bbl, its lowest since May 11. Brent, which serves as a benchmark in Europe, fell 9.45% to $102.77/bbl. “Obviously, the trajectory of oil has completely reversed, explained to Agence France Presse Phil Flynn, senior account manager at Price Futures Group. There are a lot of concerns about a possible recession and also about the fact that China has imposed tests for Covid-19, en masse, ”underlines the analyst.
-Had the Minister of the Economy had intentionally tried to alienate farmers, he could not have gone about it any other way. The announcements made by Bruno Le Maire on Monday about his intention to relaunch the policy of promotions and slashed prices in supermarket stalls to address the problem of French purchasing power have had an effect on farmers equivalent to that of acid on open wounds. The FNSEA and the Young Farmers saw in it the return to a recent past of prices which do not cover their production costs - the inflation of energy, fertilizers and plastics having considerably weighed them down.

ABC
-The Bay of Palma de Mallorca, one of Spain’s most important tourist destinations in the summer, has lost 37% of its Posidonia meadows because for three decades all governments dumped wastewater into the sea while failing to invest sufficient resources in treatment plants.
The complaint of an individual in 2018 reopened this case and will put the person most responsible for the discharges in the previous legislature, the ultra-left environmentalist Neus Truyol, on the bench. She could face a conviction of four years in prison for alleged environmental crimes.
-Drugs designed to treat attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) could also successfully treat key aspects of Alzheimer's disease, according to an analysis published in the Journal of Neurology Neurosurgery & Psychiatry. These preliminary data, the study authors say, appear to warrant clinical trials of noradrenergic drugs, which include antidepressants and drugs to treat high blood pressure and ADHD. Researchers at Imperial College London explain that noradrenergic drugs target the neurotransmitter norepinephrine, also called norepinephrine, which is released by a network of specialized noradrenergic neurons. This network is critical for arousal and many cognitive processes, including attention, learning, memory, preparing for action, and suppressing inappropriate behavior.

>>> US After Hours Summary: KRNT -20.8% falls on weak guidance; BOC +3.5% higher

After Hours Summary: KRNT -20.8% falls on weak guidance; BOC +3.5% higher on M&A news

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AMTI +3.8% (to report top-line Phase 2 results from MARKET combination Trial of Oral AMT-101), ESTE +3.8% (stock offering), BOC +3.5% (acquires the internet service assets of Strawberry Comms), STAG +2.6% (names new CEO), LSI +1.2% (increases dividend), SRPT +0.8% (to share new clinical data and analysis for SRP-9001), DNMR +0.5% (to submit Part II application for loan guarantee under US DOE loan guarantee program), FTI +0.2% (to conduct iFEED study for Equinor), NEXA +0.2% (ramp-up activities at Aripuana have started), EPM +0.2% (CEO to step down), OIS +0.1% (names new COO)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: KRNT -20.8% (issues downside Q2 guidance)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: FSP -4.8% (adopts a variable quarterly dividend policy), LMT -1.1% (awarded a $185.9 mln US Navy contract modification), VMW -0.2% (AVGO's deal to acquire VMW will move forward after rival bidder failed to emerge, according to Bloomberg)

>>> US Close Dow -0.42% S&P +0.16% Nasdaq +1.75% Rrussell +0.79%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The stock market had growth concerns on its mind when it started today's session. When it ended today's session, it was wrapped up more in a feeling of inflation relief. Still, it was impossible to put a bow on that package, because the inflation relief was borne out of an expectation that global economic growth is going to weaken appreciably.

Nevertheless, things looked a lot better at the close than they did shortly after the open. At their lows of the morning, the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 were down 2.4%, 1.9%, and 2.2%, respectively. The Nasdaq would ultimately close up 1.8%, bolstered by strength in the mega-cap components. The S&P 500, meanwhile, eked out a 0.2% gain while the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled with a modest 0.4% decline.

The turnaround effort began right about the time European markets closed. Most bourses were saddled with large losses pushing 3.00% as recession worries took root in conjunction with the euro falling to a 20-year low against the dollar. EUR/USD traded down to 1.0235, bringing it close to parity with the greenback, but stood at 1.0267 (-1.5%) as of this writing.

That weakness bled into the U.S. market, sinking the cyclical stocks in the early stages of trading. Everything went lower, however, evidenced by an advance-decline line at the NYSE that favored decliners by a better than 6-to-1 margin. By the close, decliners led by a 9-to-7 margin.

The growth concerns were apparent in the underperformance of the cyclical stocks, yet they were most acute in the behavior of the Treasury and commodity markets.

The 2s10s spread inverted by a basis point. The 2-yr note yield settled its session down a basis point at 2.82% and the 10-yr note yield settled its session down eight basis points at 2.81%. Separately, WTI crude futures plummeted 8.1% to $99.34/bbl, unleaded gasoline futures dropped 9.0% to $3.34/gal, and copper futures fell 5.6% to $3.42/lb.

That move in the energy complex undercut the S&P 500 energy sector (-4.0%), but it became a relief point for the broader market seeking some inflation relief. If nothing else, traders latched onto the commodity price breakdown as a turnaround catalyst.

Some will call attention to the drop in the 10-yr note yield as another relief point, but it would be remiss not to add that the 10-yr note yield was sitting around 2.81% when stocks sold off at the open. The implication is that the commodity price action was the principal driver of today's turnaround action.

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all closed pretty much at their highs for the day. The S&P 500 was paced by the communication services (+2.7%), consumer discretionary (+2.3%), and information technology (+1.2%) sectors, which were led by the likes of Alphabet (GOOG 2277.74, +96.12, +4.4%), Meta Platforms (META 168.19, +8.16, +5.1%), Amazon.com (AMZN 113.50, +3.94, +3.6%), and Apple (AAPL 141.56, +2.63, +1.9%).

Today's worst-performing sectors were energy (-4.0%), utilities (-3.4%), materials (-2.0%), and industrials (-1.5%).

The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) ended the day up 1.8%, whereas the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) closed down 0.3%.

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • Factory orders for manufactured goods increased 1.6% m/m in May (consensus +0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.3%) in April. Shipments of manufactured goods rose 1.8% after increasing 0.6% in April.
    • The key takeaway from the report is the understanding that order activity was much stronger than expected in May; however, the market isn't responding to that consideration so much as it is responding to the notion that order activity is apt to weaken in coming months as global economic activity slows.

Looking ahead, market participants will be focused on the May Jolts - Job Openings and June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index reports at 10:00 a.m. ET on Wednesday along with the release of the minutes for the June 14-15 FOMC meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET.

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: -14.8% YTD
  • S&P 400: -19.4% YTD
  • S&P 500: -19.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -22.5% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: -27.6% YTD

FT Lex : Ebitda: creative accounting did not end when debt was initially sold

Ebitda: creative accounting did not end when debt was initially sold
Many loan term sheets lack definitions for ebitda allowing corporates to avoid breaching covenants

Accounting shenanigans that help companies raise money have a habit of reappearing in different forms.

For years, corporate borrowers, often private equity-owned, have relied on so-called adjusted ebitda in order to maximise their debt-raising capability. These fudges included so-called “add-backs” — one-time charges and the like — designed to give a fairer depiction of profitability. But some dubious add-backs included earnings that were speculative or not-so-aberrational. Juicing up ebitda this way enabled the company to take on even more junk loans and junk bonds.

The holders of such debt are getting another accounting lesson now. Many of those previous debtors seek to borrow additional cash, deploying the fuzzy math of ebitda profitability. According to a recent report from Moody’s, of 226 leveraged loan term sheets it reviewed for debt issuances in 2021 and 2022, over half lacked formal definitions for ebitda. This has allowed corporates keen to raise more debt, or pay out dividends, to creatively construct an ebitda measure that avoids breaching covenants.

Some adjustments look defensible, such as those based on wording from Big Four accounting firms that write “quality of earnings” reports. Still these numbers still do not equate with the audited historical figures in financial statements. More questionable add-backs include the profits from merger and acquisition deals contemplated but not yet completed and research and development charges that are usually regularly recurring.

Credit agreements historically contained “maintenance” covenants, which would result in a technical default if a company failed to maintain a certain amount of profit relative to debt. Such restrictions have appeared less frequently in the last decade.

However, more common are “incurrence” covenants that have requisite profit levels before raising more debt or pursuing other financial engineering. The increasingly fluid ebitda calculation is one aspect of the creativity employed by borrowers to raise more money. Lenders, including sophisticated hedge funds, are ostensibly victims of this game-playing. Then again, they freely bought this paper ignoring the risks they took on.

FT : France repatriates children and mothers from Syrian camps

France repatriates children and mothers from Syrian camps
Shift from case-by-case policy comes as campaigners step up calls for return of remaining minors to Europe

France has repatriated 35 children and 16 mothers from detention camps in Syria for prisoners with links to jihadi groups, a shift in its long-held policy of very occasional returns that had been criticised by human rights groups and put it at odds with other European countries.

Since Isis fighters surrendered their last Syrian enclave in 2019, the last scrap of a self-declared caliphate that included neighbouring regions of Iraq, many of the women who had left their countries to join militant groups ended up in the camps.

Activists, relatives and organisations including the UN have sounded the alarm over the fate of children stuck in the Kurdish-run centres, where sanitary conditions are often dire. Many were either born there or were taken to Syria at a young age. About 150 French minors remain in the camps, and campaigners have urged all European governments to speed up the repatriation process.

France had remained an outlier in how to deal with the minors and their mothers. It had previously repatriated only a handful of children, mainly orphans or minors whose mothers had been forced to give up their parental rights, even after other European countries began to fly back families.

French anti-terror prosecutors said the newly repatriated children, including seven minors without guardians, had been taken into care. One child who is nearly 18 and suspected of having links to a terror group has been detained.

The women, who were either French nationals or had French children, had faced either arrest or search warrants and were being dealt with by judicial authorities, the French foreign office said.

Until recently the idea of repatriations on a larger scale had proved unpopular, French opinion polls showed. The country was still reeling from a series of terror attacks planned by Islamist cells in Syria, including the killing of 130 people at restaurants and a concert hall in Paris in November 2015.

Victims’ associations from the 2015 attacks had come out in favour this year of bringing children and their mothers back to France, however, coinciding with the trial of some of the perpetrators that sought in part to confront the traumatic chapter. The case was concluded with convictions for 20 assailants last week.

The repatriations also come after a long season of political campaigning and elections in France that has now drawn to a close, with Emmanuel Macron in the first months of his second presidential term.

Relatives of the French children welcomed the move on Tuesday, but said all of the minors still stuck in Syrian camps needed to be returned.

“We hope this repatriation signals the end of this abject ‘case-by-case’ policy, which comes down to sorting between children, separating brothers and sisters and tearing children away from their mothers who are abandoned in the camps,” the United Families campaign group said.

The UN’s children’s rights committee in February had backed calls from the French relatives of children in the Syrian camps for them to be returned to France, saying their lives were at risk from illnesses and violence.

Save the Children in March urged governments to step up repatriation efforts after Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark and other European countries that had been more amenable to larger returns began to fly out children and mothers. Belgium repatriated six mothers and 16 children from north-eastern Syria in June.