>>> US After Hours Summary: NFLX -4.9%, IBKR -0.7% lower on earnings; PRGS +8.2%

After Hours Summary: NFLX -4.9%, IBKR -0.7% lower on earnings; PRGS +8.2%, UAL +3% higher on earnings; AVR +52.3% surges on investment from MDT

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PRGS +8.2%, UAL +3%, FNB +1.7%, KARO +1.4%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AVR +52.3% (announces up to $90 mln strategic investment from MDT; also $200 mln stock offering), GME +3.1% (Ryan Cohen purchased 500,000 shares), SERV +2.7% (to acquire Diligent Robotics), LPTH +1.9% (acquires Amorphous Materials), UUUU +1.5% (to acquire Australian Strategic Materials), PAAS +0.5% (provides Q4 operational data and FY26 outlook), NLOP +0.1% (declares special cash distribution of $6.75/sh)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: NFLX -4.9%, IBKR -0.7%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CRVS -8% ($150 mln stock offering), ERAS -7.1% ($150 mln stock offering), KHC -4.9% (stock offering by selling shareholder), ECO -4.4% (provides Q4 operations update), ROKU -1.4% (in sympathy with NFLX earnings), APA -0.6% (provides supplemental financial and operating data for Q4), QBTS -0.4% (files mixed securities shelf offering), RIO -0.2% (provides Q4 production update), NKE -0.1% (announces regional leadership changes)

WSJ :OpenAI and ServiceNow Strike Deal to Put AI Agents in Business Software

OpenAI and ServiceNow Strike Deal to Put AI Agents in Business Software
The AI model maker and business-software provider signed a three-year pact that underscores how AI agents are increasingly being embedded in corporate software

  • OpenAI and ServiceNow signed a three-year deal to integrate OpenAI’s AI models and agents into ServiceNow’s business software.
  • ServiceNow will embed OpenAI’s speech-focused AI model for customer service and its computer-use AI model for IT tasks.
  • ServiceNow’s revenue increased 22% in the third quarter due to growing AI demand, especially in its customer relationship management business

OpenAI and ServiceNow said they signed a three-year deal that will integrate the ChatGPT-maker’s AI models into ServiceNow’s business software.

The deal depends on customers using OpenAI’s models within ServiceNow, and also includes a revenue commitment from ServiceNow to OpenAI. More specific terms weren’t disclosed.

“Enterprises want OpenAI intelligence applied directly into ServiceNow workflows,” said Brad Lightcap, OpenAI’s chief operating officer. “Looking ahead, customers are especially interested in agentic and multimodal experiences, so they can work with AI like a true teammate inside ServiceNow.”

The pact is the latest sign that AI agents, independent bots that can take action on behalf of humans, are becoming standard inside core business software. Salesforce has already folded AI agents into its flagship sales and marketing tools. SAP and Workday have been similarly pitching businesses on the idea that their embedded AI agents are essential to getting value out of AI.

The deal comes as OpenAI looks to build its enterprise business—both by selling direct access to its models and AI agents, and through business-software collaborations like with ServiceNow. It faces competition not just from rival AI model maker Anthropic, but also Google and Microsoft’s suites of enterprise AI tools.

For ServiceNow, which makes software for IT, customer service and other business operations, the OpenAI deal is a way to put a leading model-maker’s technologies into its platforms without building those AI capabilities on its own.

Also as part of the deal, ServiceNow will embed OpenAI’s computer-use AI model into its platform. Such a setup will enable agents to independently perform IT tasks like restarting a computer, replacing the need for humans to do so, according to Amit Zavery, ServiceNow’s president, chief operating officer and chief product officer.

The technology can also help companies access data stuck in old-school IT systems like mainframe computers, he said. “The computer-use models are basically now doing this through learning, and feeding it back into the ServiceNow workflow platform,” Zavery said.

AI agents are the latest technology poised to disrupt the IT labor market, which has been in a steady decline over the past several years, as companies reduce the pace at which they hire tech workers and focus their efforts on cost-cutting and automation.

ServiceNow engineers will build the AI agent-enabled products with OpenAI’s technical guidance. ServiceNow also said it will put its “forward deployed engineers” to work in helping business customers actually use the AI capabilities.

Both companies have struck similar deals with the others’ competitors.

“We have always been an open platform,” ServiceNow’s Zavery said. “There are things we’ll do unique with each of the model providers, depending on their expertise.”

ServiceNow increased revenue 22% in the third quarter, as AI demand from both existing customers and new customers grew, particularly in its customer relationship management business.

The software company will report its fourth-quarter and full 2025 financial results on Jan. 28.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of January 2026 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Alcon AG Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 77 Swiss francs
* ASM Intl PT Raised to 825 euros from 800 euros at Morgan Stanley
* ASM Intl PT Raised to 825 euros from 675 euros at Citi
* ASM Intl PT Raised to 900 euros from 700 euros at ING (++)
* BioMarin Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT $98
* Brembo Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 11.90 euros
* Cibus Nordic Real Estate Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 180 kronor
* Enav Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 5.60 euros
* Epiroc Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 265 kronor
* Fluidra Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 28.50 euros
* Fresenius SE PT Raised to 60 euros from 57 euros at UBS (++)
* Indutrade Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 225 kronor
* Inficon Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 140 Swiss francs
* Intel Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $50 (+)
* InterContinental Hotels Raised to Buy at Berenberg
* INWIT Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 12.20 euros
* ISS PT Raised to 280 kroner from 240 kroner at Jefferies
* Jacquet Metals SACA Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF (+)
* Kone Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 71 euros
* Lifco Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 375 kronor
* On Holding Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $58.50
* Pennon Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 628 pence (+)
* Reply Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 146 euros (+)
* Salzgitter Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 64 euros
* Severn Trent Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 3,211 pence (+)
* Technogym Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 21.50 euros (+)
* Trelleborg Raised to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 380 kronor (+)
* VAT PT Raised to 570 Swiss francs from 460 Swiss francs at Citi

>>> Down
* Acciona Energia Cut to Underperform at RBC; PT 20 euros
* Almirall Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 14 euros (+)
* Assa Abloy Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 400 kronor
* AstraZeneca Cut to Sell at Nordea; PT 12,136.66 pence
* Belimo PT Cut to 524 Swiss francs from 536 Swiss francs at UBS (++)
* Birkenstock PT Cut to $52 from $66 at JPMorgan (++)
* Colonial SFL Socimi Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas
* Cyfrowy Cut to Sell at Wood & Company; PT 11.86 zloty
* Domino's Pizza Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $455
* Douglas Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 13 euros
* Ebro Foods Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 19.50 euros (+)
* Equinor Cut to Sell at Norne Securities; PT 250 kroner
* Fresenius Medical Downgraded to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs
* Hays PT Cut to 44 pence from 50 pence at Morgan Stanley
* Interparfums Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 29.30 euros (+)
* Knorr-Bremse Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg (+)
* Logitech Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* LVMH Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 650 euros (+)
* Melia Hotels Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 8.50 euros
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 85 kroner
* Pagegroup PT Cut to 195 pence from 215 pence at Morgan Stanley
* Pandora Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 480 kroner
* Pirelli Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 7 euros (+)
* RAI Way Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 7.60 euros (+)
* Recordati Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 57 euros (+)
* Sabadell Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 3.30 euros
* Shake Shack Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $125
* SKF Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 237 kronor
* Solvay ADRs Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT $2.80
* Solvay Cut to Underperform at BNP Paribas; PT 24 euros
* SSAB Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT 59 kronor
* Treatt Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 220 pence (+)
* Unicaja Cut to Underperform at CaixaBank BPI; PT 2.70 euros
* Vestas Cut to Hold at Jyske Bank; PT 195 kroner
* Wartsila Cut to Sell at Pareto Securities; PT 28 euros
* Webuild Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 4.30 euros (+)
* Whitbread Cut to Hold at Berenberg

>>> Initiation
* Arctic Falls Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 140 kronor
* Beauty Tech Group Rated New Buy at Cavendish; PT 460 pence
* Bonheur Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 286 kroner
* Celanese Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $50
* Dassault Aviation Rated New Buy at Marex; PT 600 euros
* Greencore Group Resumed Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 325 pence (+)
* LDA SM Rated New Buy at UBS; PT 1.35 euros
* Mapfre Rated New Sell at UBS; PT 3.85 euros
* MFE Reinstated Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 5 euros (+)
* Rockwool Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT 245 kroner
* SSAB Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 100 kronor

>>> Call
* Acciona Energia Double-Downgraded at RBC on Balance-Sheet Risks (++)
* Citi Downgrades European Stocks on US Friction Over Greenland
* Citi Boosts Semi Equipment PTs on Order, Capex Positivity
* Mapfre Slides as UBS Initiates as Sell on Premium Valuation (++)
* Morgan Stanley Cautious on Staffing Outlook; Cut Hays, Page PT
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Above-Average 4Q Beats in S&P 500 (+)
* Severn Trent and Pennon Get Ratings and Targets Raised at Citi (+)

WSJ : Moderna, Merck Report Positive Results From Cancer-Vaccine Study

Moderna, Merck Report Positive Results From Cancer-Vaccine Study
The vaccine reduced the risk of relapse or death for melanoma patients, five-year data from a Phase 2b trial showed

Moderna and Merck’s cancer vaccine reduced the risk of relapse or death for melanoma patients, five-year data from a Phase 2b trial showed.

The companies on Tuesday said the vaccine, in combination with Merck’s immunotherapy Keytruda, reduced the risk of recurrence or death by 49% compared with Keytruda alone.

“We continue to invest in our platform in oncology because of encouraging outcomes like these, which illustrate mRNA’s potential in cancer care,” said Kyle Holen, a senior vice president at Moderna.

The companies had previously released promising three-year data from the study, and on Tuesday they said the treatment “continued to demonstrate sustained and clinically meaningful improvement” in reducing the risk of death and relapse.

The companies currently have eight Phase 2 and Phase 3 clinical trials across multiple tumor types, including melanoma, non-small-cell lung cancer, bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma.

Reuters : Abivax CEO dismisses 'noise' around rumored Eli Lilly bid

Abivax CEO dismisses 'noise' around rumored Eli Lilly bid

  • Abivax shares soar more than 2,000% from July through December
  • Analysts say company developing inflammatory bowel disease drug has M&A potential
  • CEO has track record of closing deals with big pharma

NEW YORK, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Abivax Chief Executive Marc de Garidel dismissed as "noise" reports in the French press that pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly (LLY.N), opens new tab may take over his company, and said market speculation about an ongoing review by French authorities was inconsistent with how French foreign-investment oversight works.

Investors looking to profit on Abivax's fluctuating stock price have encouraged talk over the past weeks that Eli Lilly may have approached the company for an acquisition.

Abivax shares soared more than 2,000% from July through December to a peak of 145 euros per share on December 26, before receding to 101 euros, after the French government denied the rumors.

Much of the stock's rise can be explained by excitement around successful late-stage results on July 22, opens new tab for Abivax's inflammatory bowel disease drug Obefazimod.

Still, the stock surged after French publication La Lettre, opens new tab said in December Eli Lilly had talks with the French government over acquiring Abivax. The French government and Abivax both dismissed those reports.

Abivax CEO De Garidel said he does not know the details of any meeting that may have taken place between Eli Lilly or any other company and the French finance ministry.

"There was no discussion on the acquisition of Abivax. ... if there was a conversation, this would be illegal," he said in an interview.

"The noise around this potential acquisition is a distraction, but our duty is not to be distracted."

De Garidel, who has a successful track record executing high-value biotech sales to large pharma firms and is known for an acute sense of timing for closing transactions, said claims that France's finance ministry had been approached were incompatible with the required sequence of events for the government involvement.

While it is possible that a company contemplating an acquisition of any French-based company could have met with the ministry to understand the process, the actual review process would not begin until after a deal would be announced, he said.

"The first step before engaging the government on this foreign direct investment regulation, there must be a step number one: a public transaction communicated between the acquirer and the acquiree. That has not happened," he said.

We have an administration that has a lower dollar policy. China is a big component of the emerging market indices. I think it's close to just over 30%.

"Therefore, the idea that (we) would have discussed in France the acquisition of Abivax cannot be real, because it would have required, again, a formal announcement of both companies about the transaction."

The CEO declined to comment on any informal talks with pharmaceutical companies.

Abivax has said it has enough cash to fund its projects into the fourth quarter 2027, but it would need to raise additional capital to break even. The company met with dozens of potential investors during the J.P. Morgan Healthcare conference last week in San Francisco.

"We are always looking to further enhance our shareholder base with high-quality investors. With regard to 'buyers', we don’t comment on market rumors or speculation," the company said.

M&A PAST
Equity analysts, including Morgan Stanley, Piper Sandler and Truist Financial, have recently raised their price targets on Abivax to between $140 and $145, citing obefazimod's commercial potential to become a reference treatment for ulcerative colitis and the company's attractiveness as an acquisition target.

FT : Plan to overhaul CMA’s merger process sparks ‘cronyism’ fears

Plan to overhaul CMA’s merger process sparks ‘cronyism’ fears
Move comes as the government strives to speed up UK’s approach to merger clearance

A UK government proposal to remove an independent panel of adjudicators on high-profile mergers risks political interference and “cronyism”, according to people with knowledge of the system.

In a consultation published on Tuesday, the government outlined a raft of proposals to help speed up the UK’s approach to merger clearance as part of its drive to improve economic growth, which includes overhauling the decision-making process at the Competition and Markets Authority. 

Under the current system, any merger that could lead to less competition is reviewed by an independent panel of academics and business experts at the CMA to determine if the deal can proceed. 

The government is proposing to replace that panel with members of the CMA board who are more directly accountable to parliament.

“While decisions are ultimately CMA decisions, the senior leaders of the organisation who are accountable to parliament for its performance are legally prevented from engaging in . . . [some] of its most significant decision-making functions,” the Department for Business and Trade said in the consultation, which runs to the end of March.

“This can create confusion regarding accountability for those impacted by decisions.”

However, some people with knowledge of the CMA’s panel system have warned that such changes could lead to government involvement in merger decisions and more pressure from companies keen to do deals in the UK.

“One of the pros of the panel system is you remove political interference and prevent cronyism,” said one person who has worked in the agency’s merger function. “In extremis, the government may apply pressure in a case that’s in their interest.”

Tom Smith, a competition lawyer at Geradin Partners and former legal director at the CMA, said the reforms read a bit like a “wishlist” from company advisers.

He added: “These reforms will make the CMA slightly more susceptible to political influence by reducing its independence, but they will also increase the regime’s predictability and speed. The government clearly wants to send out some mildly deregulatory vibes.”  

DBT did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the criticisms.

CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell said the proposals “will enhance the accountability of our decision making . . . [and] support the CMA’s commitment to promote competition and protect consumers with a clear end goal in mind: to drive economic growth and improve household prosperity.”

The proposals come after the government targeted the CMA last year, ousting its former chair, Marcus Bokkerink, in January and replacing him on an interim basis with former UK Amazon boss Doug Gurr, in a bid to push the agency to become more business friendly.

The CMA did not block any deals last year for the first time since 2017, according to data published this month.

The government is also proposing to change the tests that determine whether the CMA reviews a merger, as mooted by chancellor Rachel Reeves last year. Many of the proposed changes will require legislation.

Under the current “share of supply” and “material influence” tests — based on measures such as company turnover and dominance in a market — the CMA has broad discretion to review a large number of mergers. The government is proposing to limit the breadth of these tests.

“For the small number of high‑stake transactions that get referred for a more in-depth review, the changes matter as they amplify the importance of broad political and industry support for a deal’s central pro-competitive rationale,” said Philipp Girardet, an antitrust partner at Clifford Chance.

(ZH) China's 200,000-Satellite Filing Sparks Fears Of An Orbital Power Grab

China's 200,000-Satellite Filing Sparks Fears Of An Orbital Power Grab

China has filed requests to reserve orbital slots for almost 200,000 satellites, prompting concerns it may be positioning itself to control large swathes of near-Earth space, according to the Daily Mail.

The applications, submitted on December 29 by the newly formed Institute of Radio Spectrum Utilisation and Technological Innovation, outline two constellations—CTC-1 and CTC-2—each with 96,714 satellites spread across thousands of orbits. If built, the system would dwarf SpaceX’s Starlink plans and could restrict access for rival operators.

Officials have offered little detail about the satellites’ role, fuelling speculation about military or security uses. According to China in Space, Nanjing University of Aeronautics says the network would support “Low-altitude electromagnetic space security, integrated security defence systems, electromagnetic space security assessment of airspace, and low-altitude airspace safety supervision services.” Analysts say this closely resembles SpaceX’s military-focused Starshield system.

The Daily Mail writes that the filings were made with the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), which allocates orbital spectrum. Once registered, other companies must prove their satellites will not interfere. While the spacecraft could have civilian uses, the move comes amid intensifying US-China competition in space.

Satellites now underpin modern warfare, forming part of the so-called “kill mesh.” The war in Ukraine has shown how vital satellite communications and jamming capabilities can be, and US officials have raised alarms about unusual manoeuvres by some Chinese satellites in geostationary orbit. One senior officer warned they are “sliding” across the GEO belt, behavior seen as inconsistent with normal communications missions.

China openly treats space as a strategic domain. President Xi Jinping has called it an “important strategic asset for the country that must be well managed and utilized and, more importantly, protected.” China’s satellite count has risen from about 40 in 2010 to roughly 1,000 today.

Despite the scale of the proposal, many experts doubt it will be realised. China would need to launch around 500 satellites every week for seven years—far beyond its current manufacturing and launch capacity. This has led analysts to suspect the move is an orbital “land grab,” reserving space for future use rather than signalling an imminent build-out.

As Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation put it, “It is possible they’re just trying to create some space for later on.” Even Chinese industry figures have played down the feasibility, with Spacety executive Yang Feng warning that “Leading in terms of filing applications does not mean surpassing in final execution,” citing major technical and capacity hurdles.

The move is notable given China’s recent criticism of SpaceX at the UN, where it argued that the unchecked spread of commercial satellite constellations “has given rise to pronounced safety and security challenges.”

La Lettre : La biotech française Abivax attise les convoitises. D'après les inf

La biotech française Abivax attise les convoitises. D'après les informations de La Lettre, le groupe pharmaceutique britannique AstraZeneca s'intéresse à la start-up spécialisée dans le traitement des maladies inflammatoires, déjà ciblée par la big pharma américaine Eli Lilly (LL du 12/01/26). Le laboratoire, basé à Cambridge et dirigé par le Français Pascal Soriot, a proposé de payer environ 176 € par action Abivax à la fin de l'année 2025, ce qui valoriserait la biotech française, cotée sur Euronext Paris et le Nasdaq américain, à quelque 13,75 milliards d'euros. Ce montant est toutefois inférieur aux 15 milliards d'euros qu'Eli Lilly envisage de débourser pour mettre la main sur Abivax, soit le double de sa capitalisation boursière actuelle (7,89 milliards d'euros). Mais AstraZeneca se tient prêt à s'aligner sur ce que propose son concurrent.

La bataille promet d'être intense pour le rachat d'Abivax, jeune pousse créée en 2013 par Philippe Pouletty, cofondateur du fonds d'investissement Truffle Capital. Bien qu'Eli Lilly se montre le plus agressif des deux candidats à la reprise en matière de prix, le profil d'AstraZeneca a de quoi séduire, dans un contexte de guerre commerciale avec Washington. Son PDG, Pascal Soriot, a l'avantage d'avoir la double nationalité française et australienne. Cet ancien vétérinaire, passé par Sanofi et Roche, a transformé le laboratoire dont il a pris les rênes en 2012, alors qu'il était en perte de vitesse, en un géant mondial de l'innovation.

Dans les colonnes du quotidien Le Monde le 17 décembre 2025, il s'était inquiété d'une accélération du déclin de l'Europe dans la fabrication de médicaments innovants en raison de la politique menée par Donald Trump. Pascal Soriot avait d'ailleurs alerté sur les conséquences des investissements massifs des grands groupes pharmaceutiques aux États-Unis pour éviter les droits de douane de l'administration américaine, ce qui obligera les pays de l'UE à s'approvisionner en médicaments auprès de leur partenaire américain.

Large potentiel de vente aux États-Unis

Alors qu'Emmanuel Macron va demander à Bruxelles d'activer le mécanisme européen anti-coercition face aux surtaxes douanières que Washington menace d'appliquer à ceux qui s'opposent à ses vues sur le Groenland, la nationalité britannique d'AstraZeneca peut être un atout de taille. Adopté en octobre 2023, cet instrument anti-coercition donne à l'exécutif européen la possibilité de restreindre l'accès au marché unique à certaines entreprises étrangères, en l'occurrence américaines, de limiter ou de geler des investissements étrangers, voire d'exclure des sociétés des marchés publics.

Avant ce regain de tensions commerciales entre les États-Unis et les pays de l'Union européenne, le ministère de l'économie avait déjà indiqué suivre une possible vente d'Abivax de très près. Bercy a prévenu que tout projet de rachat d'un groupe stratégique dans le domaine de la santé déclencherait une procédure de contrôle des investissements étrangers en France par la Direction générale du Trésor de Bertrand Dumont.

Dirigée depuis avril 2023 par Marc de Garidel, la start-up Abivax est une cible sérieuse d'acquisitions pour les groupes de la "big pharma", depuis qu'elle a fait état en juillet de résultats très prometteurs pour son principal candidat-médicament, l'obefazimod. Ce dernier fait actuellement l'objet d'essais cliniques finaux, dits de phase III, pour le traitement des maladies inflammatoires de l'intestin. Ces perspectives encourageantes, avec un début de commercialisation en 2027, ont propulsé l'action Abivax à des sommets en Bourse, avec un gain de 1 600 % sur la seule année 2025. Le marché de la rectocolite hémorragique a un potentiel de ventes mondiales estimé à 21,2 milliards de dollars en 2032 contre 9,2 milliards en 2025. Les États-Unis représentent à eux seuls près de 70 % des débouchés commerciaux.

Contactés par La Lettre, ni AstraZeneca ni Abivax n'ont souhaité commenter ces informations.

La Lettre : The French biotech Abivax is attracting suitors. According to inform

The French biotech Abivax is attracting suitors. According to information from La Lettre, British pharmaceutical group AstraZeneca is interested in the start-up specializing in treatments for inflammatory diseases, which has already been targeted by American big pharma Eli Lilly (LLY) on 12 January 2026.

The Cambridge-based group, led by Pascal Soriot, is said to have proposed paying around €176 per Abivax share by the end of 2025, valuing the French biotech—listed on Euronext Paris and Nasdaq—at roughly €13.75bn.
This amount is nevertheless below the €15bn Eli Lilly is reported to be willing to pay, despite being almost double Abivax’s current market capitalisation (€7.89bn). AstraZeneca is, however, said to be ready to align with its competitor’s offer.

The battle promises to be intense. Abivax was founded in 2013 by Philippe Pouletty, co-founder of Truffle Capital. While Eli Lilly appears the more aggressive bidder on price, AstraZeneca may have political and strategic advantages in the current climate of trade tensions with Washington.

Pascal Soriot—who holds both French and Australian nationality—has previously warned, notably in Le Monde on 17 December 2025, about Europe’s decline in innovative drug manufacturing due to U.S. policy under Donald Trump. He also warned that massive U.S. investments by pharma groups to avoid American tariffs could force EU countries to depend on U.S. supply chains.

Strong U.S. commercial potential

As Emmanuel Macron has asked Brussels to activate the EU’s anti-coercion mechanism in response to potential U.S. tariffs, AstraZeneca’s British nationality could prove advantageous. The mechanism, adopted in October 2023, allows the EU to restrict market access, freeze investments, or exclude foreign companies—particularly American—from public procurement.

Even before the renewed trade tensions, the French Ministry of Economy had already indicated it was closely monitoring a potential sale of Abivax. Bercy warned that any takeover by a strategic foreign group in healthcare would trigger a foreign-investment (FDI) review by the Treasury.

Led since April 2023 by Marc de Garidel, Abivax has become a prime acquisition target for big pharma after publishing very promising results in July for its lead drug obefazimod. The drug is currently in Phase III final clinical trials for inflammatory bowel disease.
These prospects—combined with a planned 2027 commercial launch—have driven Abivax shares sharply higher, with a +1,600% gain in 2025 alone.