FT : GDP recessions vs earnings recessions

GDP recessions vs earnings recessions

We and much of Wall Street have been singing from the same hymnal for some time now: recession is coming and earnings are going to roll over hard. Ever so slowly, analysts are starting to listen. This chart from Strategas shows how bottom-up earnings estimates for the next 12 months have climbed down since the 2021 peak:


But again: slowly. Yearly profits growth of 5.5 per cent is still the 2023 consensus expectation for the S&P 500. Some think this is plausible. Diane Jaffee, a portfolio manager at TCW, made the point to us last month that a little inflation tends to boost earnings, a nominal variable, and is especially helpful to sectors such as consumer staples. If there’s not a recession, she buys 5 ish per cent earnings growth next year.

A look at net profit margin estimates, derived from analyst revenue and profits estimates, inspires doubt, however. Analysts expect them to nudge up from 12 per cent this year to 12.3 per cent in 2023. According to John Butters of FactSet, such a result would make 2023 profit margins the second-widest since 2008 (when FactSet started tracking this), second only to the bull market of 2021.

That beggars belief, even if you are sceptical that a proper recession is coming. One reason is that sales don’t have to fall much to squish margins. Since most firms have some level of fixed costs, a slowdown or mild contraction in topline revenue can become a heavy weight on margins and earnings. In a note out yesterday, Michael Wilson of Morgan Stanley offers this chart showing how smallish swings in sales become big swings in margins:


Even a sales slowdown, as the chart shows, can significantly compress margins. Not to mention the abundance of recent data pointing to other pressures on margins: elevated wage growth raising fixed costs still higher, or discounted sales of excess inventory dragging down revenue. How all this adds up to 5.5 per cent earnings growth next year is something we cannot figure.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +3.2%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) +2.1%
    • Adyen Top EU Payments Pick at Jefferies, Wise Started at Hold
  • Wolters Kluwer (WOSB TH) +1.3%
  • PZU (7PZ TH) +1%
  • Axa (AXA TH) +0.8%
  • VW (VOW3 TH) +0.6%
  • Erste (EBO TH) -0.8%
    • Erste Sentiment Too Optimistic, KBW Downgrades to Underperform
  • Danone (BSN TH) -1.2%
    • Reckitt and Danone Cut as CS Positions in EU Staples for 2023
  • Haleon (H6D0 TH) -1.3%
    • Reckitt and Danone Cut as CS Positions in EU Staples for 2023
  • Nel (D7G TH) -1.5%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Puma (PUM TH) +1%
  • Airbus (AIR TH) +0.7%
  • SAP (SAP TH) +0.7%
    • Watch SAP, Software Stocks After Oracle Revenue Tops Estimates
MDAX:
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +3.2%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +1.1%
    • Evonik to Save EU250 Mln in Costs Next Year, CEO Tells FAZ
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +0.8%
  • Bechtle (BC8 TH) +0.7%
SDAX:
  • Uniper (UN01 TH) +2.6%
  • Medios (ILM1 TH) +1.3%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) +0.9%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) -0.9%

>>> What to look at today - 13th of December 2022

Stocks in Asia came off their session highs as investors redirected their focus toward US inflation data that may shape the outlook for interest-rate hikes into next year. An Asian equity benchmark pared gains, after an earlier advance that was spurred by Hong Kong’s decision to scrap its three-day Covid monitoring period for arriving travelers. US futures remained slightly lower.  The dollar was steady. Treasury yields inched lower after gains on Monday that sent the 10-year rate to above 3.6%. Yields for Australian and New Zealand government bonds ticked higher. Oil advanced for a second day on signs of further easing of China’s Covid restrictions and as a key North American pipeline remained shut. Gold was little changed. US After Hours ORCL +1.9%, FLNC +1.5% on earnings; RTX +1.9% on $6 bln share repurchase program; JOAN -6.6% on earnings.

Nikkei +0.42% Hang Seng +0.56% CSI -0.33% Shanghai -0.21% Shenzen -0.61%

Eur$ 1.0540 CNH 6.9845 CNY 6.9797 JPY 137.69 GBP 1.2266 CHF 0.9362 RUB 62.9017 TRY 18.6472 WTI$ 74.15 +1.37% Gold 1,783 +0.09% BTC 17,172 -0.03% ETH 1,273 -0.16%

S&P -0.04% Nasdaq +0.03% EuroStoxx +0.31% FTSE +0.23% Dax +0.17% SMI +0.20%

Macro :
- Sam Bankman-Fried Arrested In the Bahamas
- VIX Fell Into a Death Cross. That’s Usually Good for the S&P 500

Keep an eye on :
- ARB LN : Argo Blockchain Says Company at Risk of Having Insufficient Cash
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca UK Names David Brocklehurst Head of Oncology
- AUTN SW : Autoneum Names Eelco Spoelder as New CEO
- BAMI IM : Fondazione Enasarco to Buy Up to 1.97% of Banco BPM in Rev. ABB
- BATS LN : Supreme Court Refuses to Halt California Flavored Tobacco Ban
- CAST SS : Castellum’s CEO Continues to Sell Shares in Company
- CINA LN : Cineworld’s Forum Film Fined £150,000 by Israeli Court
- ENVI NA : Envipco Offering of 5.6m Shares Prices at EU2.66/Share
- EVK GY : Evonik to Save EU250 Mln in Costs Next Year, CEO Tells FAZ
- FRA GY : Fraport Nov. Frankfurt Airport Passengers +41.2% Vs. +45.3% M/M
- GLPG NA : Galapagos Presents ‘Encouraging’ Data From ATALANTA-1 Study
- GYC GY : Grand City Properties to Pay Coupons on Perpetual Notes
- HMB SS : H&M Signs Power Purchase Agreement for Swedish Solar Park
- HEIA NA : Heineken USA Chief Sees ‘A Lot of Runway’ for Alcohol-Free Beer
- HLE GY : HELLA Completes Exit From JV HBPO
- HNSA SS : Hansa Biopharma Offering of 7.85m Shares Prices at SEK53/Share
- KOG NO : Kongsberg Gets Naval Strike Missile Order From the Netherlands
- LOG SM : Logista to Join Spain’s IBEX 35 Benchmark, Pharma Mar Exits
- MEL SM : Melia Hotels Says Consolidated Assets Valued at €4.04B by CBRE
- NESN SW : Fonterra, Nestlé to Sell Brazil JV to Lactalis for BRL700m
- OLG FP : Raine Ventures Head to Join US Consortium in Lyon Football Deal
- SAP GY : Watch SAP, Software Stocks After Oracle Revenue Tops Estimates
- SHEL LN : Shell to Sell Non-Operated Interests in Malaysia’s Baram Delta
- ENR GY : Siemens Energy Weighs Qatar as Investor to Fund Gamesa Deal: HB
- STLA IM : Stellantis to Supply UK Plant By Sea Amid Truck Driver Shortages
- UCG IM : UniCredit to Sell Up to €460 Million of NPLs to Kruk

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of December 2022

>>> Up
* BP Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Chr. Hansen Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 550 kroner
* Chr. Hansen Raised to Neutral at Exane
* Elior Group Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 4.10 euros
* Neoen Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 47 euros
* Richemont Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 116 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Bpost Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 7 euros
* Danone Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse
* EMS-Chemie Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 700 Swiss francs
* Erste Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 32.10 euros
* Hermes Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 1,555 euros
* Kojamo Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 15.50 euros
* Novozymes Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 430 kroner
* Reckitt Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
* Sanoma Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 11.50 euros
* SKF Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 150 kronor
* Tinybuild Cut at Liberum on ‘Concerning’ Hello Neighbor 2 Data

>>> Initiation
* Domino's Pizza Group Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon
* EDP Renovaveis Rated New Buy at Mirabaud Securities; PT 25 euros
* Eni Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 19.10 euros
* Network International Assumed Buy at Jefferies
* Nexi Assumed Hold at Jefferies
* Orron Energy Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 27 kronor
* Wise Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 624 pence
* Worldline Assumed Hold at Jefferies

>>> Call
* Adyen Top EU Payments Pick at Jefferies, Wise Started at Hold
* Elior Group Raised to Buy at Citi on Route Toward Deleveraging
* EMS-Chemie Cut With Weak 4Q and Tough Start to 2023 Seen: Stifel
* Erste Sentiment Too Optimistic, KBW Downgrades to Underperform
* Reckitt and Danone Cut as CS Positions in EU Staples for 2023
* Rolls-Royce Placed on Negative Catalyst Watch at JPMorgan

WSJ : China Says It Has Taken U.S. Semiconductor Rules to WTO

China Says It Has Taken U.S. Semiconductor Rules to WTO
Beijing challenges Washington’s export controls, considering them trade protectionism

China’s Ministry of Commerce said Monday it had filed a complaint against the U.S. at the World Trade Organization in response to new controls from Washington on semiconductor trade with China, describing the action as a response to trade protectionism.

Beijing will use the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism to challenge U.S. export controls on products such as chips to China to defend its rights and interests, its Ministry of Commerce said in a statement posted to its website. The ministry said it was responding to a media question in making the announcement.

The rules being challenged require U.S. chip makers to obtain a license from the Commerce Department to export certain chips used in advanced artificial-intelligence calculations and supercomputing.

Biden administration officials have said that the rules are needed to prevent China from building up its military and developing new, state-of-the-art weaponry.

In its statement, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said that in recent years the U.S. has expanded its concept of national security, abused export-control measures, hindered the normal international trade of semiconductors and other products, threatened the stability of the global industrial supply chain and taken other steps that disrupt the international economy. It said the U.S. actions violate international trade rules and laws, harming global peace and that the U.S. has conflated economic development and trade protectionism with its activity.

The statement urged the U.S. to abandon what it called zero-sum thinking and correct its mistakes in a timely manner and otherwise take steps to put trade between the countries on a normal footing and add stability to international supply chains.

A spokesman for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative confirmed that the U.S. has received a request for consultations from the People’s Republic of China related to certain U.S. actions affecting semiconductors. “As we have already communicated to the PRC, these targeted actions relate to national security, and the WTO is not the appropriate forum to discuss issues related to national security,” he said.

The filing of the new complaint follows a ruling by WTO panels last week that the U.S. violated international trade rules with its tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. The case relates to the import duties former President Donald Trump imposed in 2018 on national-security grounds, citing the need to protect domestic manufacturers from a global glut of metals caused by China.

The complaint was initially filed by China, but friendly nations such as Switzerland and Norway are among the complainants. The U.S. said it strongly rejected the panels’ “flawed interpretation and conclusions,” and hinted it would appeal the decision. The U.S. also said the WTO panel have no authority to review national security issues.

WTO member countries have been stepping up discussions to overhaul the group’s dispute-settlement system, but their positions remain far apart.

FT : Lars Windhorst offered La Perla role to H2O chief’s wife

Lars Windhorst offered La Perla role to H2O chief’s wife
Asset manager was pouring investors’ money into financier’s ventures when post was proposed

Lars Windhorst offered a position at his luxury lingerie brand La Perla to the wife of the chief executive of H2O Asset Management, which was pouring its investors’ money into the controversial financier’s ventures.

The proposal, which was first made in 2019, months before the Financial Times exposed the scale of H2O’s exposure to Windhorst, underscores the close relationship that blossomed between the German financier and H2O’s chief executive Bruno Crastes.

France’s financial regulator last month recommended banning Crastes from the investment industry for a decade, fining him €15mn and levying a record €75mn fine against H2O for what it described as “grave” rule breaches related to the firm’s extensive investments in illiquid bonds tied to Windhorst.

In early 2019, Windhorst invited the H2O chief’s wife, Laurence Crastes, to head a planned flagship store in Monaco, according to five people familiar with the arrangement. Mrs Crastes subsequently visited La Perla’s headquarters in the Italian city of Bologna, and researched several suitable locations for the proposed new shop and shared her findings with La Perla.

Mrs Crastes, who is not accused of any wrongdoing, was not remunerated by La Perla for her efforts and did not end up taking an official position at the company, according to two of the people. Plans to open La Perla’s Monaco store were ultimately shelved.

Months after Windhorst made his offer, H2O was plunged into crisis when the FT revealed that it held more than €1bn of illiquid bonds linked to the German, who has presided over several bankruptcies and previously received a suspended prison sentence in his home country.

French regulators last month disclosed that H2O’s chief investment officer, Vincent Chailley, also raised concerns about the firm’s exposure to Windhorst’s business in the summer of 2018.

A spokesman for Windhorst said “he did not offer any role or job or anything to Mrs Crastes”. H2O, Crastes and La Perla declined to comment.

Windhorst’s investment company, Tennor, acquired the heavily indebted La Perla for €1 in 2018 from Silvio Scaglia, an Italian entrepreneur who had previously sued the German financier for allegedly failing to settle bond trades. The case was settled out of court.

H2O that year bought more than €300mn of the €500mn bonds that Windhorst raised against the heavily lossmaking business. La Perla then listed its shares on France’s junior stock market Euronext Growth in September 2019, through a direct listing where no shares were sold to outside investors, disclosing that H2O also owned a 9.5 per cent stake in the company.

La Perla’s shares and bonds are among the assets in “side pockets” H2O established over two years ago to isolate €1.6bn of its hard-to-sell investments linked to Windhorst. Recent filings show that H2O has marked down the value of its La Perla bonds to less than 7 cents on the euro.

La Perla has yet to publish its audited annual report for 2021, previously blaming the delay on “Covid-19-related exceptional circumstances in Asia”. The company last week announced that its results for the first half of 2022 would also be delayed, attributing the hold-up to the company being in the later stages of a “restructuring and reorganisation process”.

Despite the continued absence of published financial statements, La Perla’s thinly traded shares have soared more than 70 per cent since September, giving the company a market capitalisation of €746mn. The price spike has been accompanied by a surge in volume: while on many days this year only one La Perla share has changed hands, more than 2,000 shares traded a day at some points in November.

FT : Brokers braced for big overhaul of US stock trading rules

FT : Brokers braced for big overhaul of US stock trading rules
Four SEC proposals aimed at lowering investor costs would be broadest shake-up since 2005

Banks, trading firms and brokers are bracing for the biggest overhaul of US stock trading in almost two decades with the release on Wednesday of plans designed primarily to lower costs for small investors.

The Securities and Exchange Commission is set to vote on four proposals aimed at pushing brokers and market-making firms to execute deals at the best price available — and prove this was done.

Industry executives have described the reforms as the most sweeping since 2005, when a set of rules known as Regulation National Market System also addressed conditions for small investors by modernising US equity markets.

“Potentially these could be the most significant changes to the regulation of equity market structure since regulation NMS,” said Paul Mahoney, law professor at the University of Virginia.

After the meme-stock boom of 2021, when retail traders sent the prices of a handful of stocks into the stratosphere, SEC chair Gary Gensler this year revived debate about making further changes to market rules.

Last year’s trading frenzy highlighted the practice of “payment for order flow” where popular retail brokers such as Robinhood are paid to route customer orders to big trading companies including Citadel Securities and Virtu Financial.

So-called PFOF is banned in several other jurisdictions including the UK and Canada. Gensler has warned about the risks of conflicts of interest raised by PFOF, including brokers’ use of video game-like digital features to encourage customer trading.

“There’s been at least 20 conferences that I’ve attended over the past two years where [regulation] was the only topic people wanted to talk about,” said Anthony Denier, chief executive of retail broker Webull. “It’s been discussed so much by people on either side of the PFOF fence, we are looking forward to an actual proposal or for something to actually come forward.”

The SEC is not expected to block PFOF, but the proposals could significantly curtail its use in several ways. One item on Wednesday’s agenda would require brokers to auction customers’ orders. Another item would require them to publish detailed data showing how orders were carried out.

Thomas Peterffy, chair of Interactive Brokers, said: “There is a lot of talk about how execution quality is already as good as it can be. That is very possible, but it would be reassuring for the customer to really see that it is as good as it can be. ”

If the SEC’s five commissioners vote to propose the new requirements, they will undergo to a public comment period before returning to the regulator for final approval and adoption. The plans are said to run for more than 1,000 pages, according to industry officials.

Big trading firms are expected to oppose the new auction requirement, having warned previously it could increase trading uncertainty and raise, not lower, costs for small investors.

One market maker said: “The proposals as they’ve been previewed are solutions in search of a problem. And that concern has been expressed by virtually every corner of the marketplace.”

Other rule changes on Wednesday’s agenda include cutting the price increment, or “tick size”, in which a stock can trade to less than a cent and a new standard for “best execution”, which requires brokers to ensure they have found the best price, at that time, for their client’s trade.

Stock exchanges broadly support smaller tick sizes, which they believe would help exchanges compete with other venues that already offer sub-penny trading to big wholesale investors.

SEC commissioners are also scheduled to vote on a separate final rule that would require US corporate executives to wait four months to sell shares after establishing a so-called 10b5-1 plan, according to two people familiar with the rulemaking. Such plans allow company insiders to sell shares automatically without risk of violating insider trading rules.

The new rule would end a controversial practice in which executives sell stock days after creating a plan, raising suspicion that they may have acted with inside information.

A Financial Times investigation last year found Beijing-based Cheetah Mobile chief executive Sheng Fu sold $31mn of shares a few weeks before reporting disappointing quarterly earnings. In September 2022, the SEC charged Fu with insider trading, saying that he established a trading plan knowing a big drop in advertising revenues was about to be announced.

The SEC unanimously proposed the four-month waiting period a year ago, but now at least one Republican SEC commissioner is expected to vote against the final rule, person familiar with the matter said.

>>> US After Hours Summary: ORCL +1.9%, FLNC +1.5% on earnings; RTX +1.9% on $6

After Hours Summary: ORCL +1.9%, FLNC +1.5% on earnings; RTX +1.9% on $6 bln share repurchase program; JOAN -6.6% on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ORCL +1.9%, FLNC +1.5%, CSV +0.2% (releases FY24 financial goals)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: KOPN +4.3% (joint tech solution with OPTAC-X and RealWear), DEN +4.3% (announce agreement for CO2 sequestration site with Weyerhaeuser), HLLY +3.7% (appoints new CFO), RTX +1.9% (authorizes $6 bln share repurchase program), NYMT +1% (names new President), PLL +1% (receives required permit to restart Quebec operations), SSRM +0.9% (positive exploration results), FSLR +0.5% (joining S&P 500)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: JOAN -6.6%, BLBD -3.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: LEV -12.4% (launches public offering), TRMB -4.7% (to acquire Transporeon for €1.88 bln), BMO -4.1% (public offering totaling approx. C$3.15 bln), QDEL -3.8% (separates Chairman and CEO roles), NYT -1.1% (CFO to retire next year), HUT -1% (replaces CFO), AB -0.1% (reports November AUM), META -0.1% (unplugs Connectivity division, according to TechCrunch)