>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 23rd of January 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* AB Foods Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,180 pence
* AMD Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Carmila Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT 15.20 euros (+)
* Close Brothers Raised to Hold at Investec; PT 955 pence (+)
* Galapagos Raised to Hold at Jefferies
* ICADE Raised to Outperform at Exane (+)
* Microsoft PT Raised to $280 from $270 at Jefferies
* Qualcomm Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Remy Cointreau Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 200 euros
* Ribbon Raised to Buy at WestPark Capital; PT $6 (+)
* Seagate Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Unibail Raised to Outperform at Exane (+)

>>> Down
* Amplifon Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 27 euros (+)
* Applied Materials Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $90 (+)
* Aroundtown Cut to Underperform at Exane (+)
* Berkeley Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 4,651 pence
* Billerud Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 142 kronor
* Cellnex Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 40 euros
* Check Point Software Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $150
* DeA Capital Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (ESN) (+)
* Diana Shipping Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $4
* Eagle Bulk Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $55
* Essity Cut to Hold at Jyske Bank; PT 290 kronor (+)
* G5 Entertainment Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken
* Golden Ocean Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 98.37 kroner
* KLA Corp Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT $325 (+)
* Marks & Spencer Cut to Hold at Numis; PT 160 pence
* Mintra Holding Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 6 kroner (+)
* Shurgard Cut to Underperform at Exane (+)
* SpareBank 1 Nord Norge Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities (+)
* Technogym Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 8.50 euros
* THG PLC Cut to Sell at Numis; PT 35 pence
* Warner Music Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $35
* Workday Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $195

>>> Initiation
* GVS Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 7.50 euros
* Hostelworld Rated New Buy at Goodbody; PT 226 pence (+)
* Intercontinental Exchange Rated New Hold at Baptista Research
* Lundbeck Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 30 kroner
* Odfjell Technology Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities (+)
* Pendragon Resumed Buy at Jefferies; PT 25 pence
* Sartorius Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse; PT 450 euros (+)
* UPS Reinstated Hold at Baptista Research; PT $190

>>> Call
* Berenberg Raises Boliden, Says Commodities in Good Health (+)
* Cellnex Cut at RBC After Rally on ‘Unwarranted M&A Enthusiasm’
* European Real Estate at Peak Pain, Exane Reshuffles Ratings (+)
* GVS Offers Appealing Valuation, Berenberg Initiates at Buy
* K+S Dividend Cut Likely in 2023 on Free Cash Flow Fall: Warburg
* Lundbeck’s Outlook a Concern, Citi Starts Coverage with Neutral (+)
* MS Sees More Balanced Energy Outlook; Raises Aramco, Cuts Shell
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says US Stocks Not Pricing Weak Data
* Novartis PT Boosted at Intron on Sandoz Biosimilar Potential (+)
* Orsted’s Recent Declines Offer ‘Attractive Entry Point,’ MS Says (+)
* Remy Cointreau Raised at Citi With ‘Sizeable’ Re-Rating Expected
* Sandvik Reiterated Buy at Citi as Valuation Remains Appealing (+)
* Symrise ‘Material’ Margin Miss Bigger Than Expected: Street Wrap (+)
* French Defense Budget a ‘Significant Positive’ for Thales: Citi
* UK Housebuilders No Longer Oversold, Berkeley Cut: Jefferies

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Enel (ENL TH) +3.4%
    • Utility Caution Hands 126 GW of Renewable Scope to Other Players
  • Ryanair (RY4C TH) +2.1%
  • Legal & General (LGI TH) +2%
    • Legal & General’s Lack of Asset Control Hinders Green Push
  • Imperial Brands (ITB TH) +1.8%
    • Imperial Brands PLC IMB Transaction in Own Shares
  • Just Eat Takeaway (T5W TH) +1.7%
  • ASMI (AVS TH) +1.5%
  • Reckitt (3RB TH) +1.4%
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) +1.4%
    • MS Sees More Balanced Energy Outlook; Raises Aramco, Cuts Shell
  • ASML (ASME TH) +1.3%
    • FirstPost: The Chip War: In a major blow to China, Netherlands and Japan decide to side with US over chip sanctions
  • Norsk Hydro (NOH1 TH) +1.3%
  • Grifols (OZTA TH) -1.1%
  • Scout24 SE (G24 TH) -1.6%
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -2.2%
    • Aroundtown Cut to Underperform at Exane
  • Symrise (SY1 TH) -4%
    • Symrise Prelim FY Sales Meets Estimates

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.3%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.2%
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) +1%
  • Continental (CON TH) +0.9%
  • BMW (BMW TH) +0.9%
  • Symrise (SY1 TH) -4.1%
    • Symrise Prelim FY Sales Meets Estimates
MDAX:
  • VERBIO Vereinigte (VBK TH) +1.6%
  • K+S (SDF TH) +1.4%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +1.3%
  • Siltronic (WAF TH) +1.1%
  • Knorr-Bremse (KBX TH) +1.1%
  • Scout24 SE (G24 TH) -1%
  • Fraport (FRA TH) -1.1%
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -1.5%
    • Aroundtown Cut to Underperform at Exane
SDAX:
  • DIC Asset (DIC TH) +2.2%
  • Synlab (SYAB TH) +1.6%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1.4%
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +1.4%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +1.4%
  • GFT (GFT TH) -1.2%

>>> What to look at today - 23rd of January 2023

The dollar weakened against most of its Group-of-10 counterparts and Japanese stocks climbed amid subdued trading on Monday, with many major centers in Asia closed for Lunar New Year celebrations. The Topix index jumped more than 1% while Australian shares inched higher. US equity futures were marginally lower after a surge on Friday, when the S&P 500 Index rose for the first time in four days and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 saw the biggest one-day gain since November, thanks in part to gains by Google parent Alphabet Inc. and Netflix Inc. Contracts for European stocks climbed. Treasuries were little changed in Asia while bond yields moved higher in Australia and New Zealand, tracking moves in the US debt market on Friday.  Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield fell one-and-a-half basis points to 0.385%, well below the 0.5% ceiling set by policy makers, after the Bank of Japan said it would provide ¥1 trillion yen ($7.7 billion) of collateralized loans for banks in a bid to limit a rise in rates. The yen reversed earlier gains against the greenback.  oil edged lower as investors assessed the outlook for demand following China’s reopening and risks to Russian output in 2023. Gold edged higher. Financial markets trading in Asian hours is likely to be thinner than usual with major centers including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore and Seoul closed for Lunar New Year celebrations Monday. Many regional markets will remain closed until midweek and mainland China trading won’t resume until Jan. 30.

Nikkei +1.40% Hang Seng Closed CSI Closed Shanghai Closed Shenzen Closed

Eur$ 1,0893 CNH 6,7772 CNY 6,7927 JPY 129,93 GBP 1,2415 CHF 0,9180 RUB 68,50 TRY 18,8025 WTI$ 81,58 Gold 1,924 BTC 22,741 +0,68% ETH 1,635 +0,50%

S&P -0,02% Nasdaq +0,02% EuroStoxx +0,46% FTSE +0,18% Dax +0,50% SMI +0,29%

Macro :
- Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says US Stocks Not Pricing Weak Data
- Germany and France Push for Huge Spending to Compete With US
- *YELLEN SAYS FAILING TO ADDRESS DEBT LIMIT COULD CAUSE RECESSION
- Bankman-Fried Assets of Almost $700 Million May Be Forfeited
- Paul Singer’s Elliott Raked In a Record $13 Billion Last Year

Keep an eye on :
- ASSD LN : Asda Owners Plan £10 Billion Merger With Petrol Stations: Times
- BAYN GY : Bayer Holder Criticizes Supervisory Board Chair, WiWo Says
- CNE LN : Palliser Campaign Against Capricorn Wins Glass Lewis Support
- CEM IM : Cementir Holding: Roberto Marazza to Become New Group CFO
- DSM NA : DSM Extends Acceptance Period for Firmenich Deal
- EDF FP : French Government Has 90% of EDF; Set to Allow Squeeze Out
- ISP IM : Intesa Sanpaolo Sees Fully Loaded CET1 Ratio Around 13% ‘22 End
- JUVE IM : Juventus Soccer Club Hit with 15-Point Slam for False Accounting
- NOKIA FH : Nokia, Samsung Reach Amicable Multi-Year Agreement on 5G Patents
- RNO FP : Nissan to Acquire ‘Up to 15%’ of Renault’s EV Business: NHK
- RYA ID : Ryanair’s O’Leary Says He May Stay at Helm Until 2032: Telegraph
- CRM US : Elliott May Push Salesforce for More Buybacks, Cost Cuts: React
- SDF GY : K+S Dividend Cut Likely in 2023 on Free Cash Flow Fall: Warburg
- SY1 GY : Symrise Prelim FY Sales Meets Estimates
- HO FP : French Defense Budget a ‘Significant Positive’ for Thales: Citi
- UN01 GY : Uniper Names Jutta Doenges as New CFO
- ZF Fried. : ZF Plans $3 Billion German Chip Factory to Power EVs
- ZUBN SW : Züblin Immobilien Holding: Vladislav Osipov Withdraws From Board

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 23rd of January 2023

>>> Up
* AB Foods Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,180 pence
* AMD Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Galapagos Raised to Hold at Jefferies
* Microsoft PT Raised to $280 from $270 at Jefferies
* Qualcomm Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Remy Cointreau Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 200 euros
* Seagate Raised to Overweight at Barclays

>>> Down
* Berkeley Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 4,651 pence
* Billerud Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 142 kronor
* Cellnex Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 40 euros
* Check Point Software Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $150
* Diana Shipping Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $4
* Eagle Bulk Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $55
* G5 Entertainment Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken
* Golden Ocean Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 98.37 kroner
* Marks & Spencer Cut to Hold at Numis; PT 160 pence
* Technogym Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 8.50 euros
* THG PLC Cut to Sell at Numis; PT 35 pence
* Warner Music Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $35
* Workday Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $195

>>> Initiation
* GVS Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 7.50 euros
* Intercontinental Exchange Rated New Hold at Baptista Research
* Lundbeck Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 30 kroner
* Pendragon Resumed Buy at Jefferies; PT 25 pence
* UPS Reinstated Hold at Baptista Research; PT $190

>>> Call
* Cellnex Cut at RBC After Rally on ‘Unwarranted M&A Enthusiasm’
* GVS Offers Appealing Valuation, Berenberg Initiates at Buy
* K+S Dividend Cut Likely in 2023 on Free Cash Flow Fall: Warburg
* MS Sees More Balanced Energy Outlook; Raises Aramco, Cuts Shell
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says US Stocks Not Pricing Weak Data
* Remy Cointreau Raised at Citi With ‘Sizeable’ Re-Rating Expected
* French Defense Budget a ‘Significant Positive’ for Thales: Citi
* UK Housebuilders No Longer Oversold, Berkeley Cut: Jefferies

FT : Airbus to spin out pioneering solar-powered drone programme

Airbus to spin out pioneering solar-powered drone programme
The Zephyr has a wingspan of 25m but weighs just 75kg and uses solar panels to fly and recharge its batteries

Airbus is planning to spin off Zephyr, its high-altitude drone programme, with the aim of creating a standalone telecoms and earth observation business that will start commercial operations by the end of next year.

The European aerospace and defence group has hired Morgan Stanley to find external partners to help accelerate the commercialisation of the unmanned, solar-powered Zephyr aircraft, which operate at the edge of space.

Samer Halawi, a former executive at Intelsat and OneWeb who has been leading the programme at Airbus since last summer, said the Zephyr was “now at a final design stage”. The company, he added, was “ready to monetise this aircraft” and build a “full business” around it.

Originally designed by engineers from defence group Qinetiq, the current Zephyr Z8 has a wingspan of 25m but weighs just 75kg. It uses solar panels to fly and recharge its batteries.

It is designed to fly at an altitude of around 70,000 feet at the edge of space in the stratosphere — above weather and commercial planes but below conventional satellites.

The business, which will operate under the brand name “Aalto”, is already in talks with a range of commercial customers as well as potential strategic partners. It will need to raise funds to help with its commercialisation.

“Airbus is not a company that offers telecom services,” Halawi told the Financial Times. “The idea of the carve-out is to bring like-minded partners to the equation and to be able to scale this business.”

Airbus confirmed that it had hired Morgan Stanley, adding that it planned to “maintain ownership in Aalto, where the Zephyr programme resides, but will consider outside investment to help accelerate the company’s objectives”.

Industry executives say that high-flying, solar-powered drones offer advantages over conventional satellites including lower costs and greater flexibility.

The Zephyr, Halawi said, offered a “nice mix of capabilities” to customers such as mobile operators looking to extend broadband coverage to remote or disaster-stricken areas. By being close enough to Earth it was able to “talk directly to end-user devices” while at the same time it had the persistence of a satellite and offered greater coverage than terrestrial infrastructure, he added.

The company plans to set up “Aalto ports” at 5 or 6 locations around the world, including in the US and Middle East.

Zephyr already has some revenues from earlier customers, notably government customers including the UK’s Ministry of Defence. The company currently has ten aircraft at its site in Farnborough in the UK.

Last year the latest system, the Zephyr Z8, flew 64 consecutive days before crashing. Halawi said that a component had failed during bad weather but that the design was now complete.

“It’s a mature programme. It needs a bit of [commercialisation] in order for us to . . . offer services.”

FT : Citadel breaks records with $16bn profit

Citadel breaks records with $16bn profit
Ken Griffin’s hedge fund charged its investors $12bn in fees and expenses in 2022

Ken Griffin’s Citadel made a $16bn profit for investors last year, the biggest dollar gain by a hedge fund in history and a haul that establishes his firm as the most successful of all time.

Citadel, which manages $54bn in assets, made a 38.1 per cent return in its main hedge fund and strong gains in other products last year, equating to a record $16bn profit for investors after fees, according to research by LCH Investments, run by Edmond de Rothschild.

The profit, which was driven by bets across a range of asset classes including bonds and equities, surpasses the roughly $15.6bn made by John Paulson in 2007 through his bet against subprime.

Last year’s huge sell-off in government bonds provided a highly attractive trade for many macro managers, helping them to their biggest gains since the onset of the global financial crisis.

Citadel, which Griffin set up in 1990, made a total gross trading profit of about $28bn last year, meaning that it charged its investors — one-fifth of whom are its own employees — roughly $12bn in expenses and performance fees.

The huge fee highlights how many investors tolerate hefty so-called pass through expenses — variable charges covering a range of items including trader pay, technology and rent — if net returns are still high.

The $16bn of gains for investors means Griffin’s Citadel replaces Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater, which for seven years had been the all-time most successful hedge fund, at the top of LCH Investments’ list of the top money managers. Citadel declined to commen


The record profits come in a turbulent year for financial markets, and the hedge funds that trade them, as stocks and bonds both tumbled.

Multi-manager funds such as Citadel and Millennium, which run money across a wide range of strategies, and macro funds such as Brevan Howard and Rokos that bet on falling bond yields, thrived. But many equity funds were badly damaged by the sell-off in technology stocks as interest rates were raised sharply to combat soaring inflation.

Most striking was the 56 per cent loss suffered by Chase Coleman’s Tiger Global, the most famous of the so-called “Tiger cub” funds spawned from legendary investor Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management.

Coleman’s hedge fund was one of the biggest winners from the bull market in technology stocks and two years ago entered the list of the top managers of all time in 14th place, with an annual gain of $10.4bn.

But it was one of the highest-profile casualties when markets reversed, making $18bn of losses across its funds last year and dropping out of the top 20. According to LCH, this ranks as the biggest annual loss in hedge fund history. LCH’s research does not include Tiger’s private equity business. Tiger Global declined to comment.

Meanwhile fellow Tiger cub Lone Pine lost $10.9bn last year, pushing its ranking down from sixth to 11th in the all-time list. And Sir Christopher Hohn’s TCI slipped from ninth to 14th as it lost $8.1bn, wiping out much of the $9.5bn it made for investors in 2021.

There had been “a tremendous divergence” of results, said LCH chair Rick Sopher. “The divergences mainly reflected whether the strategy sought to benefit from trading opportunities around the significant volatility, or were caught holding high growth equities whose valuations compressed sharply.” 

Overall the top 20 managers of all time in LCH’s list made $22.4bn in gains last year, while hedge funds overall lost $208bn for investors.

Israel Englander’s Millennium, which gained about 12 per cent last year, made $8bn for investors, and Steven Cohen’s Point72 made $2.4bn thanks to a 10.3 per cent return. Both are multi-manager funds that employ tens or even hundreds of teams of traders. They specialise in controlling risk by quickly cutting back losing bets, but increasing the size of winning trades.

Citadel, which suffered badly in the 2008 financial crisis but has gone on to post returns well ahead of the S&P 500 and its peers, was last year able to put on risk when many other investors were running for cover. It achieved records in four of its five business units last year, with its fixed income strategy making 32.6 per cent, ahead of many specialist macro funds.

“Ken Griffin learned much about hedging in the 2008 financial crisis and has an extremely disciplined approach to risk,” said David Williams, founder of outsourced equity trading firm Williams Trading.

Point72 did not respond to requests for comment. TCI, Millennium, Lone Pine and Bridgewater declined to comment.