FT : Chinese stocks rise as Beijing promises action to boost economy

Chinese stocks rise as Beijing promises action to boost economy
Property and tech shares lead gains after politburo prioritises expanding consumption

Chinese equities jumped on Tuesday, led by gains in property and technology stocks after the country’s ruling politburo vowed to boost employment, give more support to the real estate sector and revive a “tortuous” economic recovery.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 rose 2.6 per cent in morning trading, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was up 3.2 per cent.
There were also strong gains for the Hang Seng Mainland Properties index and the Hang Seng Tech index, which added 11.3 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively.

The Hong Kong-listed shares of Country Garden, China’s biggest developer by sales, gained 13.5 per cent after they fell 9 per cent on Monday alongside a sell-off in the sector. Among leading tech shares, ecommerce platform JD.com rose 6.7 per cent.

The Chinese bourses outperformed equities in the wider region, with South Korea’s Kospi adding 0.1 per cent and Japan’s Topix down 0.1 per cent.

Investors closely watched Monday’s meeting of China’s powerful 24-member politburo for signs that Beijing would step in to revive the country’s economy, which rallied strongly at the beginning of this year after the unwinding of zero-Covid curbs but has since lost momentum.

The group acknowledged the “tortuous progress” the economy had made and said it would work to tackle unemployment, speed up the issuance of special local government bonds and boost consumption of electronics, electric vehicles and other goods.


It added that the government would “stabilise” foreign investment and trade, which have come under pressure in recent months, as well as work to increase international flights, which have yet to recover fully from the pandemic.

The economy has been plagued by weak consumption, a property sector liquidity crunch and flagging manufacturing, eking out growth of less than 1 per cent in the second quarter compared with the previous three months. The politburo on Monday said it was “necessary to actively expand domestic demand” and “expand consumption by increasing residents’ income”.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote that the politburo was “slightly more dovish than expected”, noting the various challenges to the economy, and that they expected further policy support in the coming months.

However, economists warned the announcement was light on detail. Tuesday’s gains left Chinese equities up just 0.3 per cent for the year to date and down almost 3 per cent in dollar terms, well short of an almost 20 per cent rise for the S&P 500 and double-digit gains for peers around the region.

Robert Carnell, head of Asia-Pacific research at ING, said: “We will reserve judgment until we hear some details. We have had plenty of vague promises already, which don’t amount to a great deal so far.”

Tuesday’s moves also came ahead of a busy week of central bank meetings and monetary policy announcements.
The US Federal Reserve announces a monetary policy decision on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will set rates on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 closed 0.4 per cent higher on Monday, led by energy and financial stocks after a closely watched business survey pointed to slower than expected growth in the US in July, lowering expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates further.
The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2 per cent.

Oil prices also edged higher on Tuesday, with international benchmark Brent crude adding 0.2 per cent to trade at $82.94 and US marker West Texas Intermediate rising 0.3 per cent to $78.96.

Yields on two-year and 10-year US Treasury notes were broadly flat.

>>> US After Hours Summary: FFIV +8.4%, NXPI +1.1%, PKG +1% up on earnings; TBI

After Hours Summary: FFIV +8.4%, NXPI +1.1%, PKG +1% up on earnings; TBI -12.5%, CDNS -4.1%, MEDP -3.9%, WHR -1.1% tracking lower following earnings; SOUN -17.1% plunges on mixed shelf filing; AMC -11.5% down big potentially on court filing

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: FFIV +8.4%, NXGN +4.6%, IPAR +3.9% (guidance), RGP +1.4%, ARE +1.1%, NXPI +1.1%, PKG +1%, CADE +0.7%, HSTM +0.2%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: APE +5.8% (moving higher potentially due to court filing), MCFT +3% (authorizes $50 mln repurchase program), NIO +0.6% (CYVN Investments disclosed 7.7% stake), K +0.6% (files Form 10 related to business separation), ABCL +0.2% (appeal board denied rehearing request), BAC +0.1% (had among biggest revisions to uninsured deposit figures, according to WSJ), HESM +0.1% (increases quarterly distribution), HII +0.1% (awarded U.S. Navy contract)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: TBI -12.5%, CDNS -4.1%, MEDP -3.9%, CHX -3%, CCK -2.5%, HXL -2.2%, IBTX -2%, AGYS -1.2%, WHR -1.1%, RLI -1.1%, NUE -1%, BRO -1%, SIGI -0.9% (guidance), RRC -0.7%, CLF -0.6%, AGNC -0.3%, SSD -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: SOUN -17.1% (files $400 mln mixed shelf), AMC -11.5% (moving lower potentially due to court filing), CCI -1.3% (to restructure, reduce headcount ~15%), DLR -0.1% (expands data center JV in India)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • AMC +47.7%, BDX +7.2%, ALNY +5.2%, EXEL +4.5%, VOD +3.8%, YELL +2.8%, AUR +1.8%, CNK +1.6%, MAT +1.5%, APE +0.8%, JNJ +0.6%, CVX +0.5%
  • Gapping down:
    • KOD -48.7%, VRCA -11.5%, PHG -4.8%, DPZ -4.5%, GILD -2.2%, CASA -1.7%, HZNP -1.2%, KALV -1%

FT : UK economic activity slows as rising interest rates hit spending

UK economic activity slows as rising interest rates hit spending
Downturn in manufacturing deepens, survey shows

UK economic activity slowed sharply in July as rising interest rates hit consumer spending and a manufacturing downturn deepened, a closely watched survey has shown.

The flash UK PMI services output index, a measure of activity in the sector, fell to a six-month low of 51.3, according to new data released on Monday.

Meanwhile the manufacturing output index hit a seven-month low of 46.5, indicating that a majority of businesses were reporting a contraction. This brought the composite index, which combines the two sectors, to a seven-month low of 50.7, down from 52.8 in June.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which publishes the index with the Chartered Institute for Procurement and Supply (Cips), said the data showed the UK economy had “come close to stalling”.

“Rising interest rates and the higher cost of living appear to be taking an increased toll on households . . . Meanwhile, manufacturers are cutting production in response to a worryingly severe downturn in orders, both from domestic and export markets,” he said.

The survey was conducted against a backdrop of sharply rising UK mortgage rates, after stubbornly high readings for inflation and wage growth led the Bank of England to raise its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 5 per cent in June.

The survey did not fully reflect more encouraging data on inflation published last week, which has led some investors to scale back their expectations for the peak in interest rates.

But John Glen, chief economist at Cips, said: “Higher borrowing costs are here to stay and the private sector knows it,” adding that the rise in interest rates was affecting both new orders and spending plans “long into the future”.

Thomas Pugh, economist at RSM UK, said the data suggested that “the economy is starting to buckle under the weight of the surge in interest rates and exceptionally high inflation”.

“The increase in interest rates delivered to date appears to be increasingly slowing the economy,” said Samuel Tombs, at the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.

He added that the data bolstered the case for the BoE to stop raising interest rates soon, and to deliver only a 0.25 percentage point increase, rather than a 0.5 percentage point rise, next month.

Service sector companies responding to the survey said a weakening property market was hitting activity, and both businesses and consumers were cutting back on discretionary spending.

Manufacturers said a downturn in European markets was hitting demand for new orders. They bolstered their output partly by running down backlogs of work as previous blockages in supply chains eased and it became easier to hire staff who were previously in short supply.

There was also evidence of inflationary pressures easing. Companies answering the survey said both costs and selling prices were still rising, but at the slowest pace since early in 2021.

However, service sector companies were still managing to pass higher wage costs on to customers, a trend that will reinforce the BoE’s fears of a tight labour market fuelling persistent inflation.

FT : Chinese property stocks fall despite Dalian Wanda avoiding default

Chinese property stocks fall despite Dalian Wanda avoiding default
Last-minute repayment of $400mn bond fails to boost sector

Mainland Chinese property stocks fell sharply on Monday after a last-ditch bond repayment by conglomerate Dalian Wanda failed to allay investor concerns about the sector.

The group raised $320mn through the partial sale of a subsidiary over the weekend and repaid a $400mn bond that had been due on Sunday, according to two direct investors, who asked to remain anonymous.

However, shares fell in other prominent property businesses, including China’s largest homebuilder Country Garden, in a sign of the continuing pessimism over a sector that has weighed on the Chinese economy after a wave of earlier defaults. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties index fell 6.3 per cent on Monday.

Hong Kong-listed media company China Ruyi Holdings said in a stock exchange filing that Dalian Wanda had agreed to sell a 49 per cent stake in its entertainment unit Beijing Wanda Cultural Industry for Rmb2.26bn ($315mn). Dalian Wanda did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The company’s lack of communication over its debt problems has added to market volatility, echoing the defaults of Evergrande and its peers in late 2021 when there was also a lack of official announcements from the debtors.

Asian high-yield bond markets were shaken in recent days over concerns that Dalian Wanda, the only property-related group to successfully issue dollar-denominated debt this year, would join a host of other property businesses, including Evergrande and Kaisa, in failing to make an international repayment deadline.

The company initiated a 10-day grace period for a missed interest payment on the bond last Thursday, while another of its notes maturing in 2025 is trading well below par at 80 cents on the dollar.

Fears of a default, especially given Dalian Wanda’s status as a well-known enterprise with an international footprint, added to concerns about wider contagion stemming from China’s property woes, with many developers locked in protracted restructuring processes.

“Distressed Chinese property developers’ bond restructurings can buy them some room to normalise operations, but most will continue to face repayment difficulties if home sales do not recover for a sustained period,” Fitch Ratings wrote on Monday.

Activity in China’s property sector remains depressed nearly two years after Evergrande, the world’s most indebted developer, defaulted on its borrowings and a wave of subsequent failures weighed on construction and economic activity. Beijing has offered supportive measures but has stopped short of major stimulus.

Evergrande attended a court hearing in Hong Kong on Monday to ascertain whether it could hold a vote on an offshore plan that would see international creditors exchange their holdings for notes linked to Hong Kong-listed subsidiaries.

Any meeting for a vote should shed further light on the future of the company and its vast $340bn in liabilities. Last week, it disclosed losses of $81bn over 2021 and 2022.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 24th of July 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Alcoa Raised to Hold at CFRA; PT $35
* Apple PT Raised to $225 from $210 at Wells Fargo
* Bodycote Raised to Add at Numis; PT 730 pence
* IDS Raised to Hold at Peel Hunt on Re-Rating for GLS Peers
* Lufthansa Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Netflix Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $500
* Persimmon Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 1,133 pence
* Rockwool Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 1,870 kroner
* Zurich Airport Raised to Overweight at Barclays

>>> Down
* Arbor Realty Trust Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $13.50
* Deutz Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 6 euros
* Integrated Diagnostics Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 52 cents
* Lonza PT Cut to 465 Swiss francs at Intron Health
* Melrose Industries Cut to Add at Numis; PT 570 pence
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 65 kroner
* Palfinger Cut to Hold at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 28 euros (+)
* ZoomInfo Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $28

>>> Initoation
* Beijer REF Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 160 kronor
* Cloudberry Clean Energy Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 15 kroner
* Mutares Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT 31 euros

>>> Call
* Beijer REF New Buy at Jefferies on Environmental Transition
* Continental Upgraded at Metzler as Approaches Turning Point (+)
* Hargreaves Lansdown Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank on Caution (+)
* Opendoor Technologies Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley