>>> Barron’s Summary Weekend

Cover:
-Robots are nearing their anticipated takeover, transitioning from science fiction to reality. At the 2025 CES, humanoid robots, notably Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, captured attention, supported by chip manufacturers like Nvidia and Intel. As Wall Street embraces the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous robots, significant advancements are underway. Unlike traditional models and consumer products, new robots leverage AI to learn tasks such as packaging, assembly, and household chores. However, mass production remains elusive, with costs uncertain; for example, the NEO robot for home use is reserved at $20,000, while Tesla's Optimus robot for commercial use might also hit that price once production stabilizes at a million units annually. Although robots are operational in factories and warehouses, their home integration is still developing, requiring human support during early learning phases. Despite long-term maturity anticipated in the industry, investors see potential as robots contribute to existing trends in AI chip demand, data connectivity, and US manufacturing growth. Estimates suggest robotics could generate $25T in revenue by 2050, heralding the third Industrial Revolution.
Interview:
-Cardinal Health has once again raised its fiscal-year earnings outlook, now anticipating adjusted earnings between $10.15 and $10.35 per share, surpassing its previous forecast of at least $10 and exceeding analyst expectations of $10.02, according to FactSet. This updated guidance follows a prior adjustment made last month at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, where the company indicated a range of $9.65 to $9.85 per share. The announcement led to an 8.7% increase in stock price, reaching $224.92, while other drug distributors like Cencora and McKesson also saw significant stock rises. CEO Jason Hollar noted that all operating segments performed effectively by simplifying their strategies. The pharmaceutical and specialty solutions segment, which is the largest by revenue, generated $60.7B in the quarter, benefiting from sales growth both from existing and new clients, pushing segment profit up to $687M from the previous $531M in 2024.
Tech Trader:
-On Tuesday, software, media, and information company stocks, including Salesforce, Reddit, and Thomson Reuters, experienced a significant decline. This downturn was triggered by the launch of new artificial intelligence tools from start-up Anthropic, which many investors viewed as a potential threat to companies that do not manufacture physical goods. Despite concerns, the fears may be exaggerated; while these AI tools demonstrate substantial potential in office environments, they are not yet fully developed and may pose risks to the firms that adopt them. Moreover, these AI agents rely on existing software and information sources, suggesting that they will not entirely replace those systems.
Once the market calms, numerous firms in the affected sectors may present attractive investment opportunities, with private equity firms likely to take interest.
The Trader:
-Artificial intelligence has significantly impacted the stock market, with investors recently expressing concerns that it has morphed from a protective force into a potential liability. This week witnessed the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 50,000 for the first time, despite widespread software industry failures. Notable companies like Thomson Reuters, PayPal Holdings, and Verisk Analytics experienced record losses, plummeting over 15%. Other firms, including Oracle and S&P Global, also faced declines. While some analysts, such as John Belton from Gabelli Funds, argue that companies with loyal customer bases and proprietary data will ultimately benefit from AI, a shift in investor sentiment indicates growing skepticism. Mark Hackett from Nationwide noted that the market has transitioned from viewing AI as uniformly beneficial to scrutinizing investment returns, leading to penalties for companies perceived as overspending.
-Rising fears over artificial intelligence have negatively affected US stocks and emerging markets (EM) that have benefited from US corporate spending on AI, with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF falling 2.5% this week. The iShares MSCI Taiwan, South Korea, and China ETFs also experienced declines of 1.6%, 4.7%, and 5%, respectively. Despite the AI trade's US focus, emerging markets, particularly in Asia, play a significant role in supporting AI growth due to their tech-heavy infrastructure. Stacie Mintz from PGIM highlights this potential in regions like China, South Korea, and Taiwan. Beyond East Asia, India emerges as a promising non-AI emerging market, set for a recovery after a challenging 2025, with earnings expectations for the iShares MSCI India ETF projected to rise 16% in 2026 and 15% in 2027. However, India is not immune to AI-related market fluctuations, as major companies like Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services have seen declines of 4.8% and 3.6%, respectively. Kunal Desai from GIB Asset Management emphasizes that India's market fundamentals, which are driven by domestic consumption, infrastructure investment, and service-led growth, position it favorably, especially following recent trade agreements with the EU and the US that lower tariffs on Indian goods.
Features:
-The emergence of private credit "cockroaches," particularly in the software sector, signals potential challenges for the industry, which comprises over $1T in loans to riskier companies. These loans are often sold through non-publicly traded private credit funds and publicly traded business development companies (BDCs) such as Ares Capital and Blue Owl Capital. While private credit has been widely popular and perceived as low-risk during favorable economic conditions, warnings from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon highlight growing concerns, especially after recent declines in publicly traded software stocks, which have dropped an average of 20% this year. A significant portion of private-credit funds, approximately 20%, is typically allocated to the software sector, leading to a notable selloff in the $350B BDC market. Concerns arise as even established software companies like Salesforce face setbacks, prompting fears for smaller, highly leveraged firms in the sector. This situation poses serious risks for alternative asset managers involved in private credit, marking one of the toughest tests for the sector since its post-financial crisis inception.
-Over the past two years, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have substantially benefited Bitcoin, amassing nearly $60 billion since early 2024 when the SEC permitted direct crypto holdings. This convenience has allowed Main Street investors to purchase Bitcoin easily, driving its price up from $44,000 in January 2024 to over $126,000 by October 6, 2025. However, following a recent decline in Bitcoin's price by over 40%, now around $68,000, there has been a significant outflow from Bitcoin ETFs, with approximately $1B withdrawn in the past week alone. While Bitcoin ETFs still hold around $101B in assets, persistent outflows could cause further price declines due to increased selling pressure. Reports indicate that many ETF holders are facing losses, with an average buy-in price of about $83,000, resulting in an average loss of 18%. Additionally, the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF posted a negative return of 18% over the past year, with actual investor losses averaging 23%, highlighting a troubling trend for those invested in Bitcoin ETFs.
Europe:
-The U.S. administration's critical remarks towards Europe have surprisingly benefited the euro, which recently hit near 10-year highs. The euro is currently up 14% against the dollar and 9% versus the Chinese yuan over the last year, though this appreciation poses challenges for Europe. Notably, while the euro's rise has been a mixed blessing, leading to a significant 30% increase in the iShares Europe exchange-traded fund, it has not adversely affected the EU's trade balance, which remained stable from January to October 2025, despite higher euro prices and U.S. tariffs. European exports primarily consist of less price-sensitive luxury items, such as semiconductor technology and high-end vehicles. Furthermore, European assets are seen as a safer investment alternative amid uncertainties in U.S. policies and potential downturns in tech stocks. The EU economy has shown resilience, with GDP growth at 1.3% and unemployment at a record low of just over 6%, while inflation has decreased to 1.7%, potentially prompting interest rate cuts from the European Central Bank. Analysts note a surge in domestic demand, suggesting that Europe is currently in a favorable economic position.
Emerging Markets:
-No update
Commodities:
-Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, D.C., aimed at stabilizing the supply of critical minerals essential for modern economies, such as rare earths and lithium. Despite this initiative, critical mineral stocks are declining, indicating that government efforts alone cannot boost stock prices. Vice President JD Vance highlighted the challenges of consistent investment amid erratic pricing and foreign market pressures. The meeting proposed measures like enforceable price floors to prevent predatory pricing. However, shares of leading companies like MP Materials and USA Rare Earth fell significantly, likely due to fears of increased competition from eased funding for mining projects. Although stocks had risen significantly over the past year, the lack of new developments discussed could have led to investor concerns, suggesting that policy changes may not be enough to sustain stock prices, emphasizing the need for companies to prove their execution capabilities on mining projects.
Streetwise:
-Walt Disney recently appointed Josh D’Amaro as its new chief executive, noted for his extensive theme park experience and enthusiasm for the brand. However, corporate activist Nelson Peltz expressed concerns about D’Amaro's limited entertainment background, suggesting this may lead to another flawed leadership transition. Currently, Disney's Experiences division, which includes parks and cruises, generates significantly more operating profit compared to its Entertainment division. D’Amaro will be supported by Dana Walden, the new chief creative officer. The current CEO Bob Iger has not been as well-received by Wall Street as his predecessor, and expectations for future leadership stability seem cautious following Bob Chapek's troubled tenure.

>>> X : THIS IS WHY BITCOIN DUMPED NON STOP FROM $126,000 TO $60,000.


THIS IS WHY BITCOIN DUMPED NON STOP FROM $126,000 TO $60,000.

Bitcoin has now crashed -53% in just 120 days without any major negative news or event and this is not normal.

Macro pressure plays a role, but it’s not the main reason Bitcoin keeps dumping. The real driver is something much bigger that most people aren’t talking about yet.

Bitcoin’s original valuation model was built on the idea that supply is fixed at 21 million coins and that price moves based on real buying and selling of those coins. In the early cycles, this was mostly true. But today, that structure has changed.

A large share of Bitcoin trading activity now happens through synthetic markets rather than spot markets.

This includes:

• Futures contracts
• Perpetual swaps
• Options markets
• ETFs
• Prime broker lending
• Wrapped BTC
• Structured products

All of these allow exposure to Bitcoin’s price without requiring actual Bitcoin to move on chain. This changes how price is discovered because now selling pressure can come from derivative positioning rather than real holders selling coins.

For example:

If institutions open large short positions in futures markets, price can fall even if no spot Bitcoin is sold.

If leveraged long traders get liquidated, forced selling happens through derivatives, accelerating downside moves. This creates cascade effects where liquidations drive price, not spot supply.

That is why recent sell offs look very structured. You see long liquidation waves, funding flips negative, open interest collapses, all signs that derivatives positioning is driving the move.

So while Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed, the effective tradable supply influencing price has expanded through synthetic exposure.

Price today reacts to leverage, hedging flows, and positioning, not just spot demand.

Adding to this, there are other factors too driving the current dump.

GLOBAL ASSET SELL-OFF

Right now, selling is not isolated to crypto. Stocks are declining. Gold and silver have seen volatility. Risk assets across markets are correcting.

When global markets move into risk-off mode, capital exits high-risk assets first and crypto sits at the far end of the risk curve. So Bitcoin reacts more aggressively to global sell offs.

MACRO UNCERTAINTY & GEOPOLITICAL RISK

Tensions around global conflicts, especially U.S.–Iran developments, are creating uncertainty.

Whenever geopolitical risk rises, supply chain risks increase, and markets shift toward defensive positioning. That environment is not supportive for risk assets.

FED LIQUIDITY EXPECTATIONS

Markets had been pricing a more dovish liquidity backdrop. But expectations around future policy leadership and liquidity stance have shifted.

If investors believe future Fed policy will be tighter on liquidity even if rates eventually fall, risk assets reprice lower.

ECONOMIC DATA WEAKNESS

Recent economic indicators job market trends, housing demand, credit stress are pointing toward slowing growth conditions. When recession fears rise, markets derisk.

Crypto, being the most volatile asset class, sees outsized downside during those transitions.

STRUCTURED SELLING VS CAPITULATION

Another important observation:

This sell off does not look like panic capitulation. It looks structured.

Consecutive red candles, controlled downside moves, and derivative driven liquidations suggest large entities reducing exposure, not retail panic selling.

When institutional positioning unwinds, it suppresses bounce attempts because dip buyers wait for stability before re-entering.

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

It is a combination of:

• Derivatives driven price discovery
• Synthetic supply exposure
• Global risk-off flows
• Liquidity expectation shifts
• Geopolitical uncertainty
• Weak macro data
• Institutional positioning unwind

Until these pressures stabilize, relief rallies can happen, but sustained upside becomes harder.

TechCrunch : New York lawmakers propose a three-year pause on new data centers

New York lawmakers propose a three-year pause on new data centers

New Yorker state lawmakers have introduced a bill that would impose a moratorium of at least three years on permits tied to the construction and operation of new data centers. While the bill’s prospects are uncertain, Wired reports that New York is at least the sixth state to consider pausing construction of new data centers.

As tech companies plan to spend ever-increasing amounts of money to build AI infrastructure, both Democrats and Republicans have expressed concerns about the impact those data centers might have on surrounding communities. Studies have also linked data centers to increased home electricity bills.

Critics include progressive Senator Bernie Sanders, who has called for a national moratorium, as well as conservative Florida Governor Ron De Santis, who said data centers will lead to “higher energy bills just so some chatbot can corrupt some 13 year old kid online.”

More than 230 environmental groups including Food & Water Watch, Friends of the Earth, and Greenpeace recently signed an open letter to Congress calling for a national moratorium on the construction of new data centers.

Eric Weltman of Food & Water Watch told Wired that the New York bill — sponsored by state senator Liz Krueger and assemblymember Anna Kelles, both Democrats — was “our idea.” Data center pauses have also been proposed by Democrats in Georgia, Vermont, and Virginia, while Republicans sponsored similar bills in Maryland and Oklahoma.

According to Politico, Krueger described her state as “completely unprepared” for the “massive data centers” that are “gunning for New York.”

“It’s time to hit the pause button, give ourselves some breathing room to adopt strong policies on data centers, and avoid getting caught in a bubble that will burst and leave New York utility customers footing a huge bill,” she said.

Last month, New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced a new initiative called Energize NY Development, which her office said would both modernize the way large energy users (i.e., data centers) would connect to the grid while also requiring them to “pay their fair share.”

TechCrunch : ‘Industry’ season 4 captures tech fraud better than any show on TV

‘Industry’ season 4 captures tech fraud better than any show on TV right now

HBO’s hit financial thriller “Industry” has delivered one of its most compelling storylines yet this season: a hunt to expose a fraudulent fintech company called Tender.

The show follows Harper Stern, who’s leading her newly launched investment firm and looking for a company to short — essentially, betting that its stock will crash. After a journalist tips her off that something’s wrong with Tender, she sends her associates, Sweetpea and Kwabena, to Ghana to investigate.

What they discover is damning. “Fake users drive fake revenue drives fake cash,” Sweetpea tells Harper. The entire company appears to be built on fabricated numbers. “The thing is nothing.”

What’s fascinating about this season of “Industry” is how well it speaks to this moment. Tender starts as a payment processing platform for adult content. The show references the very real (and still controversial) Online Safety Bill that the UK introduced, which has led to age verification and other enhanced rules for consuming adult content online. Because of its affiliation with adult content, Tender finds itself at odds with the new government’s regulation and must pivot or die, as the saying goes.

Its CFO-turned-leader, Whitney, wants the company to pivot into a bank and has a plan to make that happen, including making Tender’s CEO, Henry, the face of that transformation. Whitney is the embodiment of every tech baron cliche. Move fast, break things. Win at all costs. He’s lobbying politicians for a banking license and hunting for merger opportunities.

Harper, meanwhile, is leading her newly launched firm after feeling undermined at her previous firm and being called a DEI plant by the man who hired her (a nod to the decline of DEI in the past few years). She has teamed up with new friends and old frenemies and is looking for blood — meaning a company on the precipice of crashing. To her, Tender is that company.

This puts her at odds with her friend Yasmin, who is married to Henry and is crafting communication and lobbying strategies for Tender. It’s pride and prejudice — the sugar and spice that help make the world go round.

The show nails the tech world with such accuracy that reality itself starts to feel like satire. Even TechCrunch gets name-checked as part of Tender’s media playbook.

There is commentary on fascism via the character Moritz, who lobbies against Western liberalism and is hesitant to sell his family’s bank to Whitney, whose last name is the Jewish-sounding Halberstram. The character is perhaps a nod to the rising “technofacism” criticism of some tech barons.

Harper, meanwhile, is still a calculating sociopath. “My real passion lies with finding dead men walking,” she says at an investor breakfast. She ends up raising millions for her new firm.

She is the one character whose existence strains credibility. Personality-wise, she has to be shrewdly calculating; unlike Yasmin and Henry, she has nothing to fall back on should she fail. But would the UK establishment, which is notoriously insular, exclusionary, and white, really let a Black American woman rise through their ranks and beat them at their own game?

“Who needs realism when she’s such a great character,” one Black British founder told me.

He said the show aptly captures how detached the UK upper class is from consequence and is actually one of the few shows he’s seen that “accurately portrays the ruthlessness of the British elite, specifically how they maneuver the media and governments to suit their own whims.”

“Nepotism and lack of boundaries at work, people sleeping together for trade secrets, is very realistic and common, unfortunately,” one European investor added.

Meanwhile, Yasmin is headed down a dark path. Earlier this season, she organized a ménage à trois between her husband, Henry, and Whitney’s assistant, Hayley. As the season continues, her behavior becomes so hedonistic that one reviewer has already likened her to Ghislaine Maxwell — perhaps a perfect emblem of what lies at the pits of money and power, and the role some women play in digging those holes.

An Icarus moment could be on the way, however, at least for Whitney.

By now, the audience is familiar with how founders in the real world sometimes use deception to overinflate success (like Charlie Javice’s Frank) and allegedly steal from investors and the public (the FTX crypto crash). There are many such infamous cases, and some are even referenced in the show. But perhaps the most relevant real-world parallel for Tender would be the ultimate implosion of the German fintech Wirecard a few years ago.

Wirecard admitted that the billions in cash it reported having likely never existed, despite the company’s earlier claims that two banks in the Philippines were holding the funds. It was a tale of complex accounting and legal gray zones — much like the financial fraud depicted in Tender. Short sellers went after Wirecard, too, and one blog dubbed them “alternative whistleblowers” — people who step in when “the market, and the regulator, refuse to see what is right in front of them.”

The philosophy is one that one could easily see Harper embracing soon enough, especially after Eric tells her at one point that “short-only work is ugly, hard, investigative,” and that it’s “anti-status quo, anti-establishment, anti-power.”

With Wirecard, numerous people, including the CEO, were arrested, while the COO went on the run (and was also accused of being a Russian spy). Tender’s fate remains unrealized until the last few episodes run. One of the best parts about “Industry” is that it moves fast and breaks things. It is so clearly set in our time and so audacious in its demeanor that the audience is forced to pick their favorite anti-hero and go along for the ride.

It’s a rush, a thrill; the visual embodiment of the absence of ethical capitalists. And yet, just like in real life, we can’t get enough.

WSJ : Iran Threatens Missile Attacks, Hoping Trump Sees Strength Not Weakness

Iran Threatens Missile Attacks, Hoping Trump Sees Strength Not Weakness
The U.S. is demanding that Tehran restrict its missile program as part of a deal to avert new clashes, but it has so far refused

  • Iran’s missile program, born from early Islamic Republic weakness, now serves as a deterrent against potential military confrontation.
  • Tehran possesses an estimated 2,000 midrange ballistic missiles and significant short-range missile stockpiles capable of reaching regional targets.
  • The U.S. is increasing missile-defense systems in the Middle East and demanded Iran curb its missile program in exchange for a deal.

Iran’s missile program was born of weakness in the early years of the Islamic Republic. Now the question is whether it is formidable enough to head off a military confrontation with President Trump.

Tehran unleashed a barrage of around 500 missiles that struck civilian and military locations in Israel last June but did little strategic damage. Though Israel pounded Iran’s missile launchers and storage sites during a 12-day war in June, the regime emerged from the bruising conflict with much of its remaining arsenal intact.

More important, Iran learned how to get more of its missiles past Israeli and American defenses as the war went on.

It is threatening to fire them again on a broader set of targets around the region if Trump orders an attack. That has raised the pressure on the White House, forcing it to worry about Iran’s ability to target Israel and U.S. forces, as well as friendly Arab countries in the Persian Gulf and the wider region.

Tehran still has an estimated 2,000 midrange ballistic missiles that can reach across the region, The Wall Street Journal has previously reported. It also has significant stockpiles of short-range missiles capable of reaching U.S. bases in the Gulf and ships in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as antiship cruise missiles.

“In the absence of any meaningful air force and air defenses and with decimated allies and nuclear capabilities, Iran’s ballistic missiles now constitute the backbone of Iran’s deterrence,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran Program, at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “They are like a Swiss Army knife for the regime—for coercion, defense and punishment all at once.”

U.S. military leaders are taking the threat seriously. Trump put off plans for a mid-January attack on Iran at the last minute after being convinced the U.S. didn’t have enough forces in the region to carry out the decisive strike he wanted while dealing with an Iranian response and managing escalation.

The Pentagon is moving more missile defense systems to the Middle East, including to the Persian Gulf and to other Arab countries. “If they don’t make a deal, the consequences are very steep,” Trump said Friday, referring to Iran.

Ahead of talks aimed at heading off a conflict that began Friday in Oman, the U.S. had demanded that Iran rein in its missile program as part of the price of a deal that would also address its nuclear enrichment and support for regional militias like Hezbollah and Hamas. But Iranian officials have refused to discuss any restrictions on the country’s stockpile.

The thousands of ballistic missiles Iran built over decades by copying Russian and American technology have been used before to target air bases, energy facilities, desalination plants and cities in the region. Tehran has sometimes limited its retaliatory strikes, even giving brief advanced notice of its targets to signal to the U.S. that it wasn’t seeking a wider war.

Iran is counting on the uncertainty over whether more missiles would hit their targets this time to deter another military confrontation, analysts said.

This past week, hard-liners in Tehran said Iran’s missile program was the main reason the U.S. hasn’t attacked Iran and had opted for talks instead.

“The U.S. has returned to negotiations humbled,” said Brig. Gen. Yadollah Javani, head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ political bureau, as he exhibited a new model of medium-range ballistic missiles.

Building Iran’s missile arsenal was the life’s work of Amir Ali Hajizadeh, a figure so important that Israel killed him in an airstrike during the opening salvo of its surprise attack last June.

During the 1980s war with Iraq, Hajizadeh joined the IRGC unit that was tasked with making ballistic missiles. Most countries refused to sell them to Iran, so the unit started copying Soviet and North Korean designs, and later American Stinger and TOW antitank missiles captured in Afghanistan.

In 2009, he took charge of Iran’s newly created Aerospace Force and propelled Iran’s missile efforts to a new level. To that point, Iran’s arsenal had been mostly short-range, inaccurate rockets. He oversaw the development of missiles capable of precisely striking targets at a distance of 1,000 miles—well within range of Israel.

He was “an ideological hard-liner who was obsessed with the idea of destroying Israel,” said Saeid Golkar, an authority on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard who teaches at the University of Tennessee.

In 2015, Hajizadeh was a leading opponent of a pact that curbed Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. That year, he took to Iranian television to unveil “missile cities”—vast formations of ready-to-launch rockets buried deep under mountains.

After Trump ordered the 2020 strike that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, Hajizadeh engineered Iran’s response by attacking an American base in Iraq with a volley of drones, the Iranian government said after the missile mastermind was killed. Days later, an air-defense unit operating under his watch accidentally downed an Ukrainian airlines flight near Tehran, killing all 216 onboard.

Iranian-designed drones were used by Iraqi militias to attack U.S. troops, and by Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Its missiles were launched by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis to attack Saudi foes, Red Sea shipping, American warships and Israeli cities.

Iran saw this as a way to protect itself by using allies as a shield. “The foreigner around us is insecure, but Iran is at a peak of stability,” Hajizadeh said in a 2015 state TV interview.

“He is the one that had the biggest say in the way that Iran approached its strategy and fought its wars,” said Afshon Ostovar, associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, Calif.

He was killed on June 13 in Israeli strikes that decapitated much of Iran’s military leadership.

FT : Hims & Hers abandons copycat weight-loss drug in face of FDA probe

Hims & Hers abandons copycat weight-loss drug in face of FDA probe
Novo Nordisk had accused the telehealth company of breaching its patent on Wegovy

Hims & Hers will stop selling its discounted version of Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss pill Wegovy, handing the Danish drugmaker a win and capping two days of intensifying pressure on the US telehealth company.

Less than 24 hours after the US Food and Drug Administration said it would investigate Hims and other companies offering compounded weight-loss drugs, Hims said “we have decided to stop offering access to this treatment”.

On Thursday, the company said it would offer a discounted version of Wegovy retailing at $49 a month. The treatment would contain semaglutide, the same active ingredient as Novo’s drug. Denmark-based Novo began selling Wegovy in the US last month for $149 a month at the lowest dose after it became the first oral version of a weight-loss drug to be approved by regulators worldwide.

Novo slammed Hims’ rival product and threatened to sue the company.

Wall Street analysts said the move exposed Hims to litigation risk because Novo’s pill, which was approved in December, is under patent protection. Hims’ share price sank about 15 per cent after markets closed Friday, when the FDA announced its enforcement threat.

Hims shares are trading at the lowest level since November 2024 as the company is trying to broaden its products beyond cheaper versions of popular weight-loss drugs sold by Novo and rival Eli Lilly.

The San Francisco-based company is scheduled to run a Super Bowl ad on Sunday.

Last year, the FDA sent warning letters to drug companies about the claims made in their ads, and said the enforcement threats were prompted in part by Hims’ 2025 Super Bowl commercial.

The Information : How Capex Ramp Up Will Squeeze Google, Amazon, Meta

How Capex Ramp Up Will Squeeze Google, Amazon, Meta

The Takeaway
  • Amazon, Google, Meta face free cash flow wipeout from AI capex.
  • Companies must choose between stock buybacks or increased borrowing.
  • Oracle already leveraged for its AI data center expansion.


Big tech’s dramatic ramp-up in projected capital expenditures this year will all but wipe out free cash flow for Amazon, Google and Meta Platforms. That will force some of those companies to make some difficult choices, such as whether to end stock buybacks or borrow more money.

The good news is that the big tech companies have the capacity to each borrow hundreds of billions more money than they currently do.


Most of the big tech companies in recent years have begun returning cash to shareholders through dividends and buying back stock. Google and Meta Platforms, for instance, do both. But that could be difficult this year, with capital expenditures aimed at expanding computing capacity for AI almost entirely absorbing the cash their operations generate. (See above chart).

Google and Meta have already started to scale back their stock buybacks. Cutting off the dividend, though, could be tricky, as both companies only introduced the payouts in 2024, which made their stocks more appealing to investors.

Amazon won’t have the same problem, as it hasn’t bought back stock since 2022 and has never paid a dividend. But its projected capex this year of $200 billion is higher than the $178 billion in cash from operations analysts estimate it will produce, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, which means unlike the other companies it will burn cash anyway.

Amazon issued $15 billion in bonds in November, beefing up its cash position, so it had $123 billion in cash on hand as of Dec. 31. That gives it a sizable cushion. Still, it is in talks to invest tens of billions in OpenAI, The Information has reported, which will reduce that cash pile meaningfully. On Friday, Amazon signaled its intention to borrow more money, filing a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission that gives it the ability to quickly sell bonds.

Microsoft is in a different position. Its capex ramp-up hasn’t been quite as aggressive as the other companies’. In the first half of its 2026 June-ending fiscal year, for instance, it has spent $49 billion on capex, easily covered by the $80 billion in cash generated by its operations. For the full year ending in June, analysts are projecting $103 billion in capex, leaving it with free cash flow of $66 billion, only down a little from fiscal 2025, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. (Microsoft has said its fiscal year 2026 growth rate in capex in fiscal 2026 will be greater than it was last year, when capex grew 45% to $65 billion, but it hasn’t projected a full-year number, unlike the other companies.)

While Microsoft will likely generate plenty of free cash flow, it faces constraints the other companies don’t have—namely, a much bigger dividend commitment. Microsoft paid out $24 billion in dividends last fiscal year and has raised the dividend 10% this year.

In comparison, Meta and Google paid out $5 billion and $10 billion in dividends, respectively. They should still be able to afford those payments this year, although it will be tight for Meta in particular. The Facebook owner also spent $26 billion on stock buybacks last year, a slight drop from 2024, but with its free cash flow likely to shrivel this year it seems likely to have to slash its buyback this year.

Like Amazon, Meta and Google both sold debt last year, buttressing their cash resources. All three of the companies have ample borrowing capacity left. Take Google: credit ratings agency S&P said in November the company could lift its “net debt over $200 billion” before it would trigger a downgrade in its bluechip AA+ credit rating. Google currently has $47 billion of debt, which is more than offset by its $127 billion in cash, which means it has no net debt.

Analysts estimate Google will generate $218 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization in 2026, according to S&P. In theory, if it was willing to accept a lower credit rating, it could borrow twice its projected Ebitda, which would be $400 billion.

One company that has already stretched its balance sheet to pay for expanded AI computing capacity investment is Oracle. It had about $88 billion in net debt as of Nov. 30, more than twice its estimated fiscal 2026 Ebitda of $35.5 billion. Oracle is raising between $45 billion and $50 billion in debt and equity to help finance its data center build-out.

Oracle also is on track to pay out $5.7 billion in dividends this year, even though it is burning cash. Investors, however, have responded negatively: Oracle stock has dropped 27% so far this year.

>>> Weekend Papers Summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-The US is preparing a substantial arms sale package for Taiwan, which may include up to $20 B worth of systems, following a previous $11.1 B package announced in December. This initiative has raised concerns in Beijing, with China warning that it could jeopardize President Trump's upcoming state visit to China in April. Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan cautiously, reflecting a historical pattern of Chinese opposition to such sales before high-level meetings. The package is expected to feature Patriot missiles, NASAMS, and two additional weapon systems, although the final details remain uncertain amid discussions.
-Chinese consumers are rapidly purchasing Apple’s new iPhones, particularly the "Hermès orange" premium model, which has helped reverse a prolonged sales decline in the company’s significant market. CEO Tim Cook highlighted a 38% year-on-year revenue increase in China for the fourth quarter, hitting $26 B. Analysts attribute the iPhone 17's success to its design refresh, which enhances its status-symbol appeal and makes the handsets more recognizable as new. The vivid orange model has generated extensive online interest, gaining traction through social media posts and videos, although Apple refers to it as 'cosmic orange.' IDC's Nabila Popal noted that the distinct design changes have attracted early upgraders.
-Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that the US is pressing for an end to the Ukraine-Russia war before summer, amid political pressure in Washington for a negotiated settlement before midterm elections. A delegation from Donald Trump has proposed a timetable for peace talks, aiming for a signed agreement by June. The US has suggested that Ukrainian and Russian teams meet in Miami soon. Zelensky indicated that the urgency is influenced by elections, highlighting Kyiv's proposal of a sequence plan during negotiations, which includes security guarantees and a recovery plan for Ukraine. Additionally, a new ceasefire covering energy infrastructure strikes has been suggested as a de-escalation measure during discussions.
-The US and India have reached a framework for an interim trade agreement, resolving a prolonged stalemate between the two nations. This development followed Trump's communication with Modi, where India reportedly agreed to halt Russian oil purchases, linked to a 50% US tariff on Indian imports. Under the new agreement, India will allow imports of many US industrial goods and select food products, while its exports to the US will incur an 18% reciprocal tariff. Additionally, India plans to boost its imports from the US to $500 B over five years, aiming to double the current import levels. Both nations also committed to tackling non-tariff barriers, with India pledging to eliminate restrictive import licensing that has historically strained their trade relationship. Previous attempts to establish a bilateral trade pact had faltered over differing positions, particularly regarding India's agricultural market access.
-Donald Trump removed a racist meme depicting Barack and Michelle Obama as apes from his Truth Social account after widespread backlash, including condemnation from within the Republican Party. The offensive clip, which questioned the legitimacy of Trump's 2020 election defeat and used imagery from The Lion King, prompted calls for retraction, notably from Republican Senator Tim Scott, who labeled it the "most racist" incident from the White House. The Obamas' office declined to comment on the situation.
-Anthropic has gained significant traction this week, positioning itself as a key player in the AI market aimed at businesses, valued at hundreds of Bs. Unlike competitors like OpenAI and Google, which focus on consumer products, Anthropic emphasizes tools for developers. Recent software releases and a strategic Super Bowl ad have increased its visibility, contributing to a funding round of approximately $35 B at a $350 B valuation, with expectations of surpassing $30 B in annual revenue by the end of this year. Investors view Anthropic as a safer long-term investment due to its business model, product focus, and strong leadership.
-The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) intends to take action against copycat weight-loss drugs sold by Hims & Hers, following the company's announcement to offer a lower-priced alternative to Novo Nordisk's Wegovy. The FDA will restrict sales of unapproved compounded drugs and address misleading advertisements, emphasizing compliance and enforcement to ensure public health safety. Hims has priced its semaglutide-based product at $49 per month, while Novo's Wegovy retails for $149. Novo condemned Hims' actions as "illegal mass compounding" and has threatened legal measures, alleging deceptive practices by Hims in marketing similar GLP-1 products.
-President Javier Milei is proposing significant changes to Argentina's labour market, igniting tensions with unions amid a politically sensitive landscape dominated by the left-leaning Peronist movement. The current system, which offers strong job protections and has remained largely unchanged since the 1970s, is criticized for hindering formal employment, resulting in nearly half of Argentines working off the books. Milei's reforms aim to reduce legal uncertainties and costs associated with hiring, addressing concerns voiced by small business owners about the risks of maintaining registered employees. The proposed changes are set to be discussed in Congress soon.
-The Super Bowl significantly influences not only sports fans but also popular culture, according to USC professor Jeff Fellenzer. The NFL is considered America's national pastime, with NBC’s Sunday Night Football leading as the highest-rated show for 15 years, attracting 20-25 M viewers weekly. Expecting record revenues of $25 B, the NFL has seen viewership levels reminiscent of 1989. The live game appeal has attracted advertisers and tech firms, with YouTube offering a premium NFL service, Amazon broadcasting Thursday Night Football, and Netflix streaming games, highlighting the league's expansion beyond the US.
-Netflix is undergoing a US government antitrust review regarding its $83B acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery, as Paramount pursues a competing bid. The US Department of Justice (DoJ) is investigating whether Netflix might gain monopoly power, assessing potential competition risks linked to the deal. Netflix claims it is unaware of any investigation beyond the standard merger review and is cooperating with the DoJ. Warner Bros expressed confidence in the transaction meeting regulatory requirements. The DoJ's review is based on the Sherman Act and Clayton Act, with increased enforcement of monopolization concerns in recent years.
NEW YORK TIMES
-Hours after immigration agent Renee Good was fatally shot in Minneapolis, a federal prosecutor sought to search her vehicle for evidence believed necessary for a civil rights investigation into the agent's use of force. Joseph H. Thompson noted that the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension would collaborate with the FBI to determine the shooting's legality. However, as FBI agents prepared to execute a warrant, they received orders from senior officials, including FBI director Kash Patel, to halt the investigation, fearing it would contradict President Trump’s statements about Good’s actions during the incident.
-Chad Mizelle, a former chief of staff to Attorney General Pam Bondi, recently posted a help wanted sign for federal prosecutors on social media, reflecting staffing challenges within the Justice Department. Mizelle's solicitation for Assistant US Attorneys (AUSAs) emphasized the need for candidates who support President Trump and his anti-crime agenda, marking a shift from traditional recruitment methods that did not focus on political loyalty. This call for applications underscores a broader issue: the perception that the current administration prioritizes political alignment over qualified legal talent, discouraging highly skilled candidates from applying. Reports indicate a significant decline in applications for Justice Department positions, as the intermingling of law enforcement with political agendas has tarnished its reputation as a desirable workplace.
-President Trump has expressed a desire for the Republican-led federal government to take over the administration of elections, suggesting a "nationalization" of the voting process. This stance conflicts with the US Constitution, which delegates election management to the states. His comments have raised concerns among election officials from both parties, particularly in light of his previous attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election and his criticisms of the electoral system. These recent remarks coincide with Republican worries about maintaining majorities in Congress. White House officials argue that Trump is advocating for federal legislation aimed at securing elections, referring specifically to the federal SAVE Act that mandates US citizenship verification for voter registration. Despite this, Trump reiterated his position by highlighting perceived corruption in elections and posited that states act as agents for the federal government, questioning why the federal government does not directly manage elections.
-President Trump shared a racist video clip depicting former President Barack Obama and Michelle Obama as apes, asserting he had no reason to apologize despite later deleting the video following backlash. The 62-second clip, which included conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and was posted late Thursday, aligns with Mr. Trump's history of promoting offensive stereotypes about Black Americans. During a press interaction on Air Force One, Trump claimed he only viewed the video’s beginning regarding voter fraud and attempted to shift responsibility, stating he had entrusted someone else to post it without reviewing the entire content. Nonetheless, he expressed no remorse, insisting, “No, I didn’t make a mistake.”
-The US domestic market for .50-caliber firearms is limited, with high retail prices and minimal civilian use. In stark contrast, Mexican cartels represent a significant demand for these weapons, which have been used in serious acts of violence, including attacks on officials and civilians. The U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives reported that over 40,370 rounds of .50-caliber ammunition have been seized near the Mexico border since 2012, with a third sourced from Lake City, highlighting its prominent role in supplying ammunition for violent confrontations involving Mexican cartels. Other manufacturers from Brazil and South Korea also contribute to this supply, but Lake City stands out as a major contributor to the conflict.
-The Faroe Islands, a part of the Kingdom of Denmark, are situated strategically between Iceland and Scotland, making them pivotal in the geopolitical landscape influenced by the ongoing tensions surrounding Greenland. With 18 rugged islands and a population of 55,000, the Faroes have developed a strong local economy, primarily through their lucrative salmon exports, and provide a high standard of living for their residents. Despite their relative autonomy compared to Greenland, recent geopolitical upheavals, particularly U.S. President Trump's threats regarding Greenland, have led to heightened tensions and a re-evaluation of the Faroes' relationship with Denmark. As the territory contemplates greater independence, the ongoing interest from global powers emphasizes their significance in the shifting dynamics of the Arctic region, underscored by comments from local leaders advocating for change in their political status amidst a resurging focus on the area reminiscent of the Cold War era.
-Since its premiere at the Kennedy Center, the film "Melania," focusing on Melania Trump’s second term as first lady, has faced criticism and mockery, being labeled as “propaganda” and a “mockumentary.” However, the film is not merely documentary or promotional; it serves as a launchpad for a new lifestyle brand named “Melania.” The film emphasizes her “creative vision” and fashion choices, showcasing her style decisions during the inauguration and revealing her commitment to family values. Moreover, her agent hinted that the film supports her luxury brand endeavors, which trace back to her legal battles for brand establishment during the earlier Trump administration.
NY POST
-The Department of Justice will permit members of Congress to review unredacted files concerning convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein starting Monday, as communicated in a letter to lawmakers. This disclosure follows a law enacted by Congress last year mandating the release of over 3M documents by the Justice Department. Lawmakers are required to notify the Department 24 hours in advance for file access, which will occur on Department computers with restrictions—only lawmakers can view them, notes can be taken but electronic copies are prohibited. Despite prior scrutiny regarding delays, inadequate redactions, and incomplete releases of the total 6 M documents associated with Epstein, lawmakers view this access as a significant victory for transparency efforts. Representative Ro Khanna, a proponent of the Epstein Files Transparency Act, highlighted the effectiveness of Congressional pressure in obtaining this concession from the Justice Department.
-Walmart is increasing the hourly pay for pharmacy technicians to as much as $40.50 and is introducing 3,000 new pharmacy leadership roles, many of which do not require a college degree. Currently, Walmart employs around 35,000 pharmacy technicians and 15,000 pharmacists across approximately 4,600 pharmacies in the US. Previously averaging $22 an hour, the raise represents a potential 84% increase for top earners. However, not all pharmacy workers will qualify for the highest rate, as salaries will vary depending on credentials and location. The new roles include pharmacy operations team leads, who average $28 an hour with potential earnings of up to $42 plus bonuses. Higher wages will be particularly concentrated in areas with a high cost of living. The new leadership positions will allow pharmacy managers and pharmacists to focus more on patient care, as they oversee daily operations without necessitating a college degree, thereby reducing entry barriers into higher-paying healthcare jobs.