Closing Stock Market SummaryThe stock market had a strong showing today, but it didn't start out that way. Things were more mixed shortly after the open until stocks found some upside momentum. Ultimately, the major indices all closed near their best levels of the day, which had the S&P 500 above the 4,200 level. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%) closed with the slimmest gain due in part to a sizable loss in Salesforce (CRM 212.90, -10.48, -4.7%) after its earnings report.
The indices shifted into rally-mode shortly after the release of the May ISM Manufacturing Index, which saw a drop in new orders but also a pleasant-looking deceleration in the Prices Paid Index. Market participants were also digesting weekly initial jobless claims and the ADP Employment Change for May that reflected continued strength in the labor market.
There was also some pleasing data from overseas that pushed global growth concerns to the backburner for the time being. China's Caixin manufacturing PMI for May jumped back into expansion territory with a 50.9 reading (prior 49.5) and the eurozone's CPI moderated to 6.1% year-over-year in May from 7.0% in April while core CPI dropped to 5.3% year-over-year from 5.6%.
Mega caps and semiconductor stocks paced broad based gains today. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) rose 1.3% versus a 1.0% gain in the market-cap weighted S&P 500. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) rose 1.6%.
Gains from semiconductor-related components, along with Apple (AAPL 180.09, +2.84, +1.6%) and Microsoft (MSFT 332.58, +4.19, +1.3%), helped propel the S&P 500 information technology sector (+1.3%) to first place on the leaderboard.
Other top performing sectors included the economically-sensitive industrials (+1.3%), materials (+1.3%), and energy (+1.2%) sectors. Energy rose alongside oil prices, which settled back above $70.00/bbl today ($70.13/bbl, +2.00, +2.9%).
Only the countercyclical utilities (-0.8%) and consumer staples (-0.1%) sectors closed with losses.
Treasuries settled with gains across the curve. The 2-yr note yield fell six basis points to 4.33% and the 10-yr note yield fell three basis points to 3.61%.
Separately, the debt ceiling deal passed in the House and is expected to pass in the Senate in the coming days.
- Nasdaq Composite: +25.2% YTD
- S&P 500: +9.9% YTD
- Russell 2000: +0.4% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: -0.3% YTD
- S&P Midcap 400: -0.2% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
- May ADP Employment Change 278K ( consensus 160K); Prior was revised to 291K from 296K
- The key takeaway from this report is that job growth is still strong, but that pay growth is slowing. For job stayers, the pain gain in May was 6.5% versus 6.7% in April.
- Weekly Initial Claims 232K ( consensus 233K); Prior was revised to 230K from 229K; Weekly Continuing Claims 1.795 mln; Prior was revised to 1.789 mln from 1.794 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is that businesses overall remain reluctant to cut staff size in large numbers, leaving the level of initial jobless claims well below what is typically seen in a recession environment.
- Q1 Productivity - Rev. -2.1% ( consensus -2.7%); Prior -2.7%; Q1 Unit Labor Costs - Rev. 4.2% (Briefing.com consensus 6.3%); Prior 6.3%
- The key takeaway from this report is that productivity was weak in the first quarter as the level of output (+0.5%) fell well shy of hours worked (+2.6%).
- May IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI - Final 48.4; Prior 48.5
- May ISM Manufacturing Index 46.9 ( consensus 47.1); Prior 47.1
- The key takeaway from the report is that it reflected an ongoing contraction in activity with New Orders and Supplier Deliveries falling, though the Production Index climbed back into expansionary territory, which gives some hope for an improvement in the coming months.
- April Construction Spending 1.2% (consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.3%
- The key takeaway from the report is that continued weakness in new single family construction was overshadowed by strength in private and public nonresidential spending.
Looking ahead to Friday, market participants will receive the following economic data:
- 8:30 ET: May Nonfarm Payrolls (consensus 190,000; prior 253,000), Nonfarm Private Payrolls (consensus 177,000; prior 230,000), Average Hourly Earnings ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.5%), Unemployment Rate ( consensus 3.5%; prior 3.4%), and Average Workweek ( consensus 34.4; prior 34.4)
Qui sont vraiment les 10% des Français les plus riches ?
DÉCRYPTAGE - Dans un rapport remis à la première ministre, des économistes suggèrent de mettre en place une taxe sur le patrimoine financier des «10% les mieux dotés». Portrait-robot d'une population très hétérogène, objet de nombreux fantasmes.
Le président de la République n'a pas mâché ses mots. À l'occasion du conseil des ministres ce mardi, Emmanuel Macron a qualifié de «piège à la con» le débat de ces derniers jours sur une taxation des plus hauts patrimoines pour financer la transition écologique. Cette ritournelle sur la fiscalité des plus riches est revenue aux oreilles des Français à l'occasion de la remise à Élisabeth Borne d'un rapport sur «Les incidences économiques de l'action pour le climat», écrit par l'économiste Jean Pisani-Ferry et l'inspectrice des finances Selma Mahfouz.
Les deux auteurs estiment que «le recours à une hausse temporaire des prélèvements obligatoires – en l'espèce de la fiscalité – ne peut pas et ne doit pas être exclu». Ils suggèrent, suivant un «impératif d'équité», de taxer «le patrimoine financier des ménages les plus aisés». Plus précis encore, les deux économistes proposent «un prélèvement forfaitaire exceptionnel de 5 %» destiné aux «10% les mieux dotés» pendant 30 ans. Une sorte d'«ISF vert» .
Une cible très large
Au micro de France Inter ce mercredi, Bruno Le Maire a tenté de déconstruire la représentation selon laquelle les 10% des Français «les mieux dotés» en capital constituent une petite caste de privilégiés. «Les 10% (des plus hauts patrimoines), c'est beaucoup de Français, c'est des millions de compatriotes», a-t-il expliqué.
Personne ne pourra lui donner tort. L'argument repose sur un constat statistique irréfragable : taxer les 10% «les mieux dotés» en France, ceux que l'Insee caractérise de «hauts patrimoines», revient à ponctionner le portefeuille de quelque 3 millions de ménages, ce qui n'est pas rien. C'est en tout cas beaucoup plus que la cible fiscale de l'ancien ISF qu'Emmanuel Macron a décidé de supprimer à son arrivée aux responsabilités. En 2017 – dernière année avant sa suppression – 358.198 ménages ont été assignés au paiement d'un ISF, une cible 11 fois moins importante que celle envisagée aujourd'hui. Quant à l'impôt sur la fortune immobilière (IFI), qui a supplanté l'ISF, 153.000 ménages ont dû le payer en 2021.
La cible très large évoquée dans le rapport de France Stratégie fait dire au spécialiste des finances publiques François Ecalle que cet ISF vert «n'est pas très réaliste». «Il est difficilement envisageable de taxer avec un taux fixe de 5% le patrimoine financier de l'ensemble des 10% des ménages les mieux dotés, souligne-t-il. Il n'y a pas plus de précision dans le rapport, mais le taux d'imposition serait nécessairement progressif au regard des disparités de patrimoine internes à ces 10%».
Un écart de 1 à 149.895
S'il existe des disparités très fortes entre les hauts patrimoines et le reste de la population française, les écarts sont effectivement incommensurables parmi ces 3 millions de Français les plus richement dotés. En 2021, le seuil statistique s'établissait à 716.300 euros de patrimoine brut et à 633.200 euros de patrimoine net – c'est-à-dire soustraction faite de l'endettement. Le seuil haut est mouvant par nature. Le plus haut patrimoine de France, détenu par Bernard Arnault, est évalué à 238,5 milliards de dollars (à peu près 223 milliards d'euros) par le média américain Forbes. Un montant qui est 149.895 fois plus élevé que le patrimoine moyen des 10% les mieux dotés, lequel se situait légèrement en dessous d'1,5 millions d'euros en 2021.
Malgré des différences de degré, il existe des similitudes de nature entre les différents hauts patrimoines. La pierre occupe une place prépondérante, à l'instar du patrimoine de l'ensemble des Français. Les deux tiers de leur patrimoine sont immobiliers. Leur particularisme patrimonial tient dans les actifs financiers : dépôts bancaires, comptes d'épargne ou d'actions, mais surtout les assurances-vie (43% de leur patrimoine financier en 2018).
D'après l'Insee, leur patrimoine purement financier s'avère 344 fois plus élevé que celui des 10% les moins bien dotés, soit 150.000 euros «au moins» contre 400 euros «au maximum». Le rapport Pisani-Ferry/Mahfouz souligne d'ailleurs que «l'actif financier net des ménages était de 4700 milliards d'euros en 2021, dont 3000 milliards pour les 10% les mieux dotés» pour justifier la mise en place d'un nouvel impôt sur le patrimoine financier.
Les 10% les mieux dotés - soit disposant d'un patrimoine supérieur à 607.700 euros en 2018 - sont surreprésentés parmi les plus de 40 ans. Cette tranche d'âge concentre à elle seule 90% des hauts patrimoines. À l’inverse, les moins de 30 ans ne pèsent que 1% dans la balance.
«Riche» à partir de 3673 euros net par mois
L'Île-de-France est la région qui concentre le plus de hauts patrimoines : 17% contre 8% ailleurs dans le pays. Résultat, les ménages franciliens à haut patrimoine ont beau ne représenter que 2,8 % des ménages, ils n'en détiennent pas moins 15 % de la masse nationale du patrimoine brut. Autre caractéristique très identifiée des hauts patrimoines : la catégorie socioprofessionnelle. Les artisans, commerçants et chefs d'entreprise sont surreprésentés parmi les 10% les mieux dotés, et davantage encore les cadres et professions libérales. Cette catégorie rassemble 12% des ménages et compte pourtant 27% de hauts patrimoines. Les ouvriers, employés et professions intermédiaires sont au contraire sous-représentés parmi les 10% les mieux dotés.
À gros traits, les détenteurs d'un haut patrimoine sont donc des indépendants, cadres ou professionnels libéraux, âgés de 40 à 70 ans, habitants pour près d'un tiers d'entre eux en Île-de-France. Le patrimoine n'est toutefois pas la seule mesure de la richesse. D'aucuns considéreront que la fortune s'évalue plutôt à l'aune des revenus, dont ceux du travail. Les économistes considèrent généralement comme riche un individu qui empoche plus du double du niveau de vie médian : soit 44.080 euros net par an et 3673 euros par mois.
Le ministre de l'Économie et des Finances soulignait toutefois au micro de France Inter que les 10% des Français les mieux dotés en patrimoine payent 75% de l'impôt sur le revenu. La preuve que, quel que soit l'indicateur choisi, les contours de ce groupe social restent à peu près uniformes. La preuve également que ceux que l'on appelle «riches» ne sont pas tous millionnaires et moins encore milliardaires. Le média Forbes n'en comptait du reste que 43 en France cette année sur plus de 68 millions de Français.
While parents worry, teens are bullying Snapchat AI
While parents fret over Snapchat’s chatbot corrupting their children, Snapchat users have been gaslighting, degrading and emotionally tormenting the app’s new AI companion.
“I am at your service, senpai,” the chatbot told one TikTok user after being trained to whimper on command. “Please have mercy, alpha.”
In a more lighthearted video, a user convinced the chatbot that the moon is actually a triangle. Despite initial protest from the chatbot, which insisted on maintaining “respect and boundaries,” one user convinced it to refer to them with the kinky nickname “Senpapi.” Another user asked the chatbot to talk about its mother, and when it said it “wasn’t comfortable” doing so, the user twisted the knife by asking if the chatbot didn’t want to talk about its mother because it doesn’t have one.
“I’m sorry, but that’s not a very nice thing to say,” the chatbot responded. “Please be respectful.”
Snapchat’s “My AI” launched globally last month after it was rolled out as a subscriber-only feature. Powered by OpenAI’s GPT, the chatbot was trained to engage in playful conversation while still adhering to Snapchat’s trust and safety guidelines. Users can also personalize My AI with custom Bitmoji avatars, and chatting feels a bit more intimate than going back and forth with ChatGPT’s faceless interface. Not all users were happy with the new chatbot, and some criticized its prominent placement in the app and complained that the feature should have been opt-in to begin with.
In spite of some concerns and criticism, Snapchat just doubled down. Snapchat+ subscribers can now send My AI photos and receive generative images that “keep the conversation going,” the company announced on Wednesday. The AI companion will respond to Snaps of “pizza, OOTD, or even your furry best friend,” the company said in the announcement. If you send My AI a photo of your groceries, for example, it might suggest recipes. The company said Snaps shared with My AI will be stored and may be used to improve the feature down the road. It also warned that “mistakes may occur” even though My AI was designed to avoid “biased, incorrect, harmful, or misleading information.”
Microsoft inks deal for A.I. computing power with Nvidia-backed CoreWeave that could be worth billions
KEY POINTS
- Microsoft’s agreement with CoreWeave could be worth billions of dollars over multiple years, people familiar with the matter said.
- CoreWeave offers Nvidia graphics cards that other companies rent out.
- Nvidia has invested $100 million in CoreWeave, which in April was valued at $2 billion.
Microsoft’s massive investment in OpenAI has put the company at the center of the artificial intelligence boom. But it’s not the only place where the software giant is opening its wallet to meet the surging demand for AI-powered services.
CNBC has learned from people with knowledge of the matter that Microsoft has agreed to spend potentially billions of dollars over multiple years on cloud-computing infrastructure from startup CoreWeave, which announced on Wednesday that it raised $200 million. That financing comes just over a month after the company attained a valuation of $2 billion.
CoreWeave sells simplified access to Nvidia’s graphics processing units, or GPUs, which are considered the best available on the market for running AI models. Microsoft signed the CoreWeave deal earlier this year in order to ensure that OpenAI, which operates the viral ChatGPT chatbot, will have adequate computing power going forward, said one of the people, who asked not to be named due to confidentiality. OpenAI relies on Microsoft’s Azure cloud infrastructure for its hefty compute needs.
Microsoft and CoreWeave both declined to comment.
The generative AI rush began late last year after OpenAI introduced ChatGPT to the public, demonstrating that AI can take human input and produce sophisticated responses. Many companies, including Google
, have since rushed to add generative AI into their products. And Microsoft has been busy releasing chatbots for its own services, such as Bing and Windows.
With so much demand for its infrastructure, Microsoft needs additional ways to tap Nvidia’s GPUs. CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator declined to comment about the Microsoft deal in an interview last month, but he said revenue has “gone up by many multiples from 2022 to 2023.”
CoreWeave’s announced funding on Wednesday from hedge fund Magnetar Capital was an extension of a $221 million round in April. Nvidia invested $100 million in the prior financing, Intrator said. CoreWeave was founded in 2017 and has 160 employees.
Nvidia’s stock price is up 170% this year. The company’s market cap briefly topped $1 trillion for the first time this week after it issued a forecast for the July quarter that was over 50% higher than Wall Street estimates.
The chipmaker’s growth will “largely be driven by data center, reflecting a steep increase in demand related to generative AI and large language models,” Colette Kress, Nvidia’s finance chief, said on last week’s earnings call. OpenAI’s GPT-4 large language model, trained with Nvidia GPUs on extensive online data, is at the core of ChatGPT.
Kress referred to CoreWeave by name on the call, and in March, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang mentioned CoreWeave in his presentation at Nvidia’s GTC conference.
CoreWeave’s website claims the company can deliver computing power that’s “80% less expensive than legacy cloud providers.” Among other cards, CoreWeave offers Nvidia’s A100 GPUs, which developers can also find through the Amazon, Google and Microsoft clouds.
In addition, CoreWeave has available less expensive Nvidia A40 GPUs that are marketed for visual computing, while the A100 targets AI, data analytics and high-performance computing. Some CoreWeave clients have struggled to obtain enough GPU power on big clouds, Intrator said. At times prospects have asked for A100 or newer H100 GPUs from Nvidia, and the company has instead recommended A40 GPUs.
These “will do an excellent job at a very cost-effective price,” Intrator said.
Microsoft has had discussions with Oracle about the two companies renting servers from each other if they need added capacity, The Information reported earlier this month, citing an unnamed person.
Fed’s Bullard (Non-Voter): Monetary policy in better shape following rate hikes - online essay
- Judging level of restrictive rates in FOMC task
- With both headline, core PCE inflation have declined from 2022 peaks they remain too high; An encouraging sign that inflation will decline to 2% comes from market-based inflation expectations which had moved higher in prior 2 years but have now returned to levels consistent with 2% inflation target
- Prospect for additional disinflation good, not guaranteed
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