FT : UK private equity firms sell assets to themselves as exit routes dwindle

UK private equity firms sell assets to themselves as exit routes dwindle
Disposal of portfolio companies to ‘continuation’ funds becomes preferred strategy to return cash to investors

UK private equity managers now see selling companies to themselves as their best option to offload investments, according to new research, as a moribund IPO market and the higher cost of financing deals make traditional exit routes more difficult. 

Disposals to so-called continuation funds are the most popular option for private equity executives seeking an exit from their investments, according to a poll of 200 senior UK-based industry professionals carried out by Numis. 

The results, due to be published this week, underline the rising trend of private equity funds turning to newer funds raised by the same firm as they seek to sell their assets to return cash to investors. 

Private auctions, the preferred route in last year’s poll, are now the least popular of four exit options as a more difficult debt financing environment combines with political uncertainty ahead of UK and US elections.

The gloomy economic outlook and the gap between buyers’ and sellers’ valuations were also cited among the most common barriers to dealmaking. In Europe, the number of sales from one private equity firm to another dropped earlier this year to the lowest level since the Covid-19 pandemic.

The vast majority of those polled, drawn from professionals focused on mid-market deals worth £500mn-£1bn, did not expect a fully functioning initial public offering market before the final quarter of 2024. 

Despite this, IPOs were ranked as the third most popular option for prospective disposals while a “dual track” process, where companies prepare a stock market listing and a private sale in parallel to keep options open, was second. 

The growing use of continuation funds has attracted scrutiny with the chief investment officer of asset manager Amundi last year likening parts of the private equity industry to a “Ponzi scheme” that would face a reckoning in the coming years. 

The technique involves a private equity fund selling an asset it has owned for several years from one of its funds where investors have been promised a return in cash to a newer fund where backers are not due to get their money back for a few years. 

The popularity of the strategy has grown as pulling off deals has become more difficult. Global dealmaking fell to a 10-year low in the first nine months of 2023. 

Supporters of the method say flipping assets from one fund to another can allow private equity firms to continue benefiting from assets with strong cash flow. 

While the new fund may have different backers, or may invest alongside third parties, the method raises questions around how a private equity firm should objectively value an asset while doing the best for the investors in both funds. 

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority said this month it was planning a review of the valuations of private assets, warning that higher interest rates were likely to result in lower valuations and could present risks to the financial system. 

The survey found that, for UK assets, private equity sponsors have shifted their focus from public companies to private companies. 

The poll found 71 per cent of executives were focused mainly on targeting UK private companies, up from 11 per cent a year ago. The proportion focusing on UK public assets plunged from 73 per cent to 14 per cent. 

The change in focus came despite respondents’ view that private assets were more likely to be overvalued than public companies. 

Numis said the findings reflected “a perception that public investors may be less willing to sell currently, making it harder to execute these deals, and that there is a wider opportunity set in UK private markets”. 

For the survey respondents, who were based in London but invest globally, the UK has greater appeal than other markets, Numis found, with 85 per cent saying the country was more attractive than the other markets where they invest. 

FT : Office space vacancies in US and London reach at least 20-year highs

Office space vacancies in US and London reach at least 20-year highs
Large companies hold off committing to real estate deals as working patterns remain in flux

Demand for office space has slumped further, with vacancies reaching at least 20-year highs in the US and London, as people continue to work from home despite companies’ attempts to get staff back in the office after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Vacancy rates have risen to fresh highs and investment in offices fell sharply in the third quarter this year compared with the same period in 2022 in London, New York and San Francisco, according to preliminary data from CoStar, a research company focused on commercial real estate.

The sustained slowdown in the office market comes as higher borrowing costs and low occupancy are compressing building valuations while companies including Amazon, BlackRock, Lloyds Banking Group and JPMorgan have in recent months introduced staff attendance mandates on given days.

“The big ticket transactions [are] really not happening at the moment,” said Mark Stansfield, director of UK analytics at CoStar. “There is still a divide of expectations between sellers and buyers.”


Jonathan Gardiner, head of real estate agent Savills’ central London office agency, said large companies were holding off pulling the trigger on real estate deals because they were “still trying to understand their spatial needs” as working patterns shift from Covid-induced work from home to hybrid working and an increase in mandated office attendance.

Vacancies in San Francisco offices hit a two-decade high and reached a 20 per cent rate in the third quarter — up from 6.3 per cent at the onset of the pandemic. The Californian tech hub only generated £454mn worth of investment in office space in the period, less than a third of its pre-pandemic average.


“Places like San Francisco have been hit particularly hard given the level of hybrid working and levels of tech occupation over there,” said Stansfield. Tech workers have embraced remote working more than other office workers, according to analysts.

Investment in London rebounded slightly to £2bn in the third quarter thanks to a flurry of deals in the City fuelled by appetite for green, modern and newly refurbished offices in central London which are in short supply. However, it remains far below its pre-pandemic levels and more than a fifth lower year on year.

The tech and media sectors historically boosted London’s office take up, but companies in those industries are shedding space as they experience slower growth, said Gardiner. London’s vacancy rate hit 9 per cent in the third quarter, the highest since CoStar started recording the data in 2003.

The picture in New York was similarly grim in the third quarter, according to CoStar data. Investment in the city’s offices fell by 60 per cent on the previous quarter while its vacancy rate remained at 13.4 per cent, hovering near a two-decade high.

In a positive sign for the commercial real estate sector, leasing showed signs of renewed activity in the third quarter. Large deals in London’s City and West End drove a 19 per cent quarterly jump in leasing activity in the UK. In the US, leasing activity rose by 13 per cent overall despite falling in San Francisco.

FT : China’s Golden Week offers economic bump but property ills persist

China’s Golden Week offers economic bump but property ills persist
Policymakers urged to take stronger action to boost growth as tourists spend less on luxury goods and services

China’s Golden Week holiday provided some relief for the world’s second-largest economy as it struggles to recover from the coronavirus pandemic but policymakers will have to take action to spur stronger growth, economists say.

Domestic tourism numbers and revenue during the eight-day holiday, which combined the mid-Autumn festival and National Day, were slightly higher than 2019 levels before the pandemic, official figures showed.

But activity in the stricken property market, which analysts say lies at the heart of China’s economic woes, remained lacklustre, with fewer people than expected inspired by the holiday cheer to buy a new home.

With China’s third-quarter gross domestic product data expected next week, analysts will be looking for signs that Beijing will continue to support the recovery with sustained stimulus measures.

“The economy is resilient,” said Heron Lim, greater China economist at Moody’s Analytics. “But in terms of strong growth, that is still missing.”

China’s economy was expected to rebound decisively this year after Covid lockdowns in 2022 but a weak property market has undermined consumer confidence, while lagging foreign demand for the country’s exports has hit trade and manufacturing.

Policymakers have responded with cuts to mortgage requirements and interest rates, but have implemented piecemeal stimulus measures in a bid to avoid adding to growing public debt.


State media lauded the Golden Week holiday as a success, noting “bustling scenes” across the country as “the latest sign of . . . China’s steady economic recovery, in stark contrast to the dire predictions made by western media and politicians”.

But initial estimates for domestic tourism fell short of forecasts. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism said the number of domestic travellers during the break was 4.1 per cent above 2019 levels, and domestic tourism revenue was 1.5 per cent higher. Prior to the holiday, the government had projected visitor numbers would rise 7.8 per cent and revenue 3.7 per cent, Goldman Sachs said.

Tourism revenue per head was 2 per cent below 2019 levels — an improvement from the minus 16 per cent recorded during the Dragon Boat public holiday in June. Box office revenue was also well below pre-pandemic levels.

In the real estate sector, average daily sales volumes by area fell 17 per cent compared with 2022, according to data from China Index Holdings, which tracks 35 cities.

“The property sector showed signs of weakening again, despite the raft of easing measures rolled out in September,” Nomura economists wrote in a research note, adding that the easing of buyer restrictions in China’s top-tier cities might come at the expense of demand in smaller cities.


In Hong Kong, a popular destination for mainland tourists, the daily average of visitors from across the border reached 70 per cent of comparable figures from 2017 and 2018, before Covid and anti-government protests rocked the territory.

But mainland visitors spent less per capita on high-value luxury goods and services, analysts said.

Tourists “now prefer social media check-ins over shopping” during holiday trips, according to Oliver Tong, head of retail in Hong Kong for real estate services firm JLL. “Retailers are losing their confidence in the business prospects of the Chinese new year in 2024.”

Ray Chui, chair of Kam Kee Holdings, which runs more than 40 restaurants across the city, said holiday revenue was about 75 per cent of 2018 levels.

“It is more about getting the experience than spending now,” Chui said. In the past tourists spent an average of up to HK$300 ($38) per person, he said. “Now it is around HK$80.”


In Macau, the gambling hub that relies heavily on mainland tourists, visitor numbers reached 932,000, with average daily arrivals hitting about 84 per cent of the equivalent figure for 2019, the city’s tourism authority said.

Average daily gross gaming revenue during the holiday was estimated at 830mn patacas ($103mn), up nearly 30 per cent from the Labour Day holiday this year, JPMorgan analyst DS Kim said.

The figures were “much better than we and the market had feared”, Kim said, pointing to a faster recovery of mass market gamblers.

While casinos benefited, JLL said visitors did not splash out at the enclave’s jewellers and boutiques.

Analysts warned that signs of stabilisation remained fragile given the weakness in the property services sectors, while elevated interest rates in China’s trading partners would hit demand for its exports.

Nomura raised its gross domestic product forecast for 2023 to 4.8 per cent from 4.6 per cent, but maintained a projection of 3.9 per cent for the following year and a “cautious growth outlook”.

“We expect Beijing will have to do more to stabilise growth in the near future,” analysts said.

FT : Why Mohamed El-Erian favours cash over equities for now

Why Mohamed El-Erian favours cash over equities for now
Top economist reveals his personal investment strategy on the FT’s Money Clinic podcast

Mohamed El-Erian, a leading economist, has said he feels “uncomfortable” investing his personal wealth in the stock market and has diversified away from equities as central banks battle to tame inflation.

In an interview with the FT’s Money Clinic podcast, El-Erian said he had adopted a “barbell approach”, allocating more of his personal portfolio to low-risk cash and cash equivalents paying decent rates of interest, while at the same time increasing his exposure to much higher risk distressed debt situations to balance this out.

“If you are uncomfortable in the stock market — as I am, by the way — then there’s a really good place to park your money where you can get paid 4 to 5 per cent on your money and that will compound,” he said, extolling the virtues of top interest-paying cash savings accounts.

“And then on the other side, there’s a lot of opportunities in what’s called distressed investing in private credit and things like that.”

He stressed that he was able to take this position as an experienced investor, cautioning that the barbell approach would not be suitable for novice investors.

El-Erian is chief economic adviser at Allianz, the parent company of Pimco, a big provider of bonds and fixed income investments, where he formerly served as chief executive. He is a contributing editor to the Financial Times.

“The time will come when I’ll be much more comfortable increasing my equity exposure, but I’ve been quite cautious,” he added, referring to volatility in both the equity and bond markets as rates are expected to stay higher for longer.

“Slowly, over the next few years, we’re going to go back to something more normal where traditional correlations and therefore traditional risk mitigation come back . . . I can tell you about the destination, but the journey is really painful.”

Given the current outlook, he said, the three qualities investors needed the most were resilience, optionality and agility.

“Resilience, meaning you can absorb a mistake. Optionality, an open mind. You need to recognise that there are certain things you don’t know. You need to think differently. Finally, agility; the ability to move quickly, and just to be clear, this is not just for investing. I think both governments and CEOs have to ask themselves every day. How’s my resilience? How’s my optionality? How’s my agility?”

El-Erian also spoke about the themes of his latest co-authored book Permacrisis: A plan to fix a fractured world, and revealed that his earliest money memory was playing games of blackjack with his uncle growing up in Egypt as a young boy of five or six. “He had, compared to me, an infinite amount of money, so ultimately he always prevailed,” he said.

To listen to the full episode, click on the podcast player above or search for “Money Clinic” wherever you get your podcasts.

>>> US After Hours Summary: H +6.6% soaring on S&P MidCap 400 inclusion; OII +3.

After Hours Summary: H +6.6% soaring on S&P MidCap 400 inclusion; OII +3.2% up on Petrobras contract; PD -6.1% sinking after convertible note offering; U -0.4% edging lower on Chairman and CEO retirement

After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AKRO +21.5% (to present SYMMETRY Phase 2b results), LXRX +17% (INPEFA receives preferred formulary status), H +6.6% (replacing NATI in the S&P MidCap 400), OII +3.2% (five-year contract from Petrobras), CRS +1.6% (increasing specialty alloy portfolio prices), BKD +1.5% (reports September 2023 occupancy), INMD +0.6% (affirms management, employee safety), FLR +0.1% (five-year contract extension from U.S. Naval nuclear program), CYRX +0.1% (new partnership with Be The Match BioTherapies)

After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: U -0.4% (guidance and Chairman and CEO retiring)
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: VTYX -20.4% (positive results from VTX002 Phase 2 trial), PD -6.1% ($350 mln convertible senior notes), NDAQ -2.1% (September and Q3 metrics), XENE -0.7% (publishes XEN1101 Phase 2b results), AC -0.6% (prelim September book value), CNS -0.1% (prelim AUM at the end of September)

>>> US Close Dow +0,59% S&P+0,63% Nasdaq +0,39% Russell +0,60%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market opened on a lower note as investors reacted to news that Israel declared war on Hamas after a surprise attack launched by Hamas over the weekend. Stocks rallied in the afternoon trade, however, to finish the session near their highs of the day, albeit on light volume that reflected the uncertainty associated with the Israel-Hamas war.

Some flight to safety action seen in Treasury futures, which traded today while the Treasury market was closed for Columbus Day, was cited as a catalyst for the afternoon rally. Other support factors included the dollar giving back its early gains and the stock market's overall resilience to selling efforts.

That resilience likely triggered some short-covering activity and invited additional buying on the belief that stocks are due for a bounce from an oversold condition.
Oil prices traded higher in response to the Israel-Hamas conflict, which some fear could turn into a wider regional conflict. Today's move in oil prices, however, did not have a

The move in oil helped drive a 3.5% gain in the S&P 500 energy sector. The industrials sector (+1.6%) was the next best performer, benefitting from outsized gains in its defense components like Northrop Grumman (NOC 471.61, +48.37, +11.4%), L3Harris (LHX 180.21, +16.32, +10.0%), and Lockheed Martin (LMT 436.53, +35.80, +8.9%).

There was no U.S. economic data of note today. Tuesday's economic data is limited to the September NFIB Small Business Optimism at 6:00 a.m. ET and the August Wholesale Inventories report at 10:00 a.m. ET.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +28.8% YTD
  • S&P 500: +12.9% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +1.8% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +1.4% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -0.3% YTD