FT : Renault/Ampere: corporate giants cut loose their energy transition lifeboat

Renault/Ampere: corporate giants cut loose their energy transition lifeboats
EV manufacturer Ampere may ultimately be worth more to its parent as a division than a demerger

Spinning out a business can electrify a company’s share price. That may be the hope behind Renault’s plan to float Ampere, its independent electric vehicle manufacturer. Yet Renault’s long-term future depends on switching out of combustion engine vehicles. So why sell any of its EV business?

Energy transition could place a slew of legacy businesses into run-off. Some can afford to retain new ventures with high growth potential in-house as insurance policies. Others lack the required capital. A third group believes a partial demerger will create new currency for anticipated M&A.

Consider the possibilities. Renault sold 228,000 EVs and hybrids in Europe last year. That placed the French carmaker third in market share.

An initial public offering of Ampere could raise €1bn-€2bn from share sales. But is the transaction really necessary? Renault wants to accelerate growth. It has enough available cash to cover Ampere’s needs for years, some €4bn-€5bn thinks Dan Roeska at Bernstein,

Germany’s Thyssenkrupp is in a different boat. It would like to float its hydrogen unit Nucera. The parent does not have the capital to give this energy transition business a decent push.

Nucera has electrolyser production capacity of 1GW annually, Lex estimates. That is high. But profits may take time to materialise and competition can only intensify.

The parent wants to simplify its structure and decarbonise other capital intensive businesses including steel. It could use any funds raised. Thyssenkrupp’s joint venture share in Nucera could be worth €2bn.

A successful IPO can, meanwhile, offer a smaller division a chance to grow independently. Competing for capital is tough within a conglomerate. Finance directors favour divisions with quick returns on investment.

Italian energy group Eni expects its renewables business Plenitude to grow partly via acquisitions and thinks a share currency will help. So far the markets have not warmed to the idea of a spin-off. Eni may try again. TotalEnergies and BP — both with in-house renewables units — will watch with interest.

We have omitted one reason for spinning off energy transition: corporate happenstance. Managerial ambition and activity for the sake of it are real factors. They would appear to apply at Renault more than strategic logic. Ampere may ultimately be worth more to its parent as a division than a demerger.

FT : Kering/Creed: posh perfume buy embraces luxury gap doctrine

Kering/Creed: posh perfume buy embraces luxury gap doctrine
€5bn market for ultra-pricey brands is expanding at 15 per cent a year, three times faster than rest of fragrance market

The “essence of strength and majesty” does not come cheap. Just 100ml of the woody, fruity Aventus fragrance costs €295. Its maker, Anglo-French perfume house Creed, also commands a premium price. French luxury group Kering is buying the 263-year-old Paris-based business for an estimated €1bn-€2bn.

The €5bn market for ultra-pricey brands is expanding at 15 per cent a year, at least three times faster than the rest of the fragrance market. A loyal, price-insensitive customer base also justifies a stiff price tag.

Creed’s vendors, chair Javier Ferrán and funds controlled by BlackRock, are likely to have secured a multiple at least as high as Australian brand Aesop. L’Oréal recently bought the latter for $2.5bn or 4.7 times last year’s sales. Creed generated over €250mn of revenues in the year to March.

Kering’s first beauty acquisition comes shortly after it announced plans to create an inhouse division for its cosmetics and perfumes business. Running these businesses directly, rather than licensing them to third parties, should improve its control of critical brands.

The Creed deal should accelerate the build-up of Kering’s beauty division by as much as two years. Kering should be able to develop Creed, particularly in China, travel retail and as a women’s fragrance. The latter accounts for just 15 per cent of sales.

There is just a whiff of doubt about this deal. It is a potential distraction from sorting out underperforming Gucci. Kering is using up funds on bolt-on takeovers that might be better employed on a needle-moving deal. It should reduce its reliance on Gucci, which accounted for two-thirds of operating profits last year.

That issue explains why Kering shares are priced at 16 times next year’s earnings, about a third lower than the sector mean.
Over the past year, its stock has moved sideways.
The S&P Global luxury index is up nearly a quarter.

Buying Creed is an understandable move, given Kering’s beauty ambitions. But stronger, more majestic moves are needed to lift the share price.

FT : German bond market signals fears of eurozone recession

German bond market signals fears of eurozone recession
Gap between short and long-term borrowing costs reaches widest level since 1992

Investors in German debt are increasing their bets that the European Central Bank’s interest rate rises will push the European economy into a deeper downturn, as a closely watched recession indicator hit its most extreme level since 1992.

The gap between 2-year and 10-year German bond yields, which serve as the eurozone’s de facto borrowing benchmark, reached a 31-year low on Tuesday of minus 87 basis points, as markets repriced for higher interest rates despite recent signs that the eurozone economy is cooling.

The differential widened after Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, on Tuesday called for “persistent” high interest rates to kill off a second phase of inflation fuelled by rising labour costs. 

When longer-term yields sink lower than shorter-term counterparts, markets normally have increasing conviction of economic trouble ahead that will prompt rate cuts in the future. In the US, the inversion of the Treasury yield curve is closely watched because of its record in predicting recessions.

“The message that is coming is pretty clear” said Lyn Graham Taylor, a senior rates strategist at Rabobank. “The market believes that the ECB will be determined to stick with higher rates and markedly slow the economy by doing so.”

Germany’s yield curve has become increasingly inverted as more hawkish messaging from the central bank convinces traders to bet on rates staying higher for longer.


Swaps markets are now pricing in a peak ECB deposit rate of 3.9 per cent by December, compared with projections of a peak of 3.7 per cent in October before its rate-setting meeting on June 15.
The yield on 2-year German debt, which is sensitive to interest rates expectations, rose 0.07 percentage points to 3.15 per cent on Tuesday, while 10-year yields rose 0.04 percentage points to 2.34 per cent. 

Expectation for higher rates comes as economic clouds loom over the eurozone. The bloc is already in a “technical recession”, with gross domestic product contracting by 0.1 percentage points in each of the past two quarters. 

Lagarde reiterated at the ECB’s annual conference on Tuesday that the central bank would keep interest rates “sufficiently restrictive” for “as long as necessary” to prevent a wage price spiral.

The ECB’s latest projections show it expects wages to grow by 14 per cent between now and the end of 2025. Eurozone annual inflation is expected to drop to 5.6 per cent in June when fresh price data is released on Friday — still well above the ECB’s 2 per cent target but down from a peak of 10.6 per cent in October as energy and food prices continue to slow.

George Buckley, chief European economist at Nomura, said the deepening yield curve inversion could be showing that Europe has suffered a series of shocks that have yet to feed through to the wider economy.

“Rewind nine months ago, we were standing on the edge of an [economic] abyss, the outlook was really awful,” he said. “The market could be saying the recession that hasn’t really happened is yet to happen and will hit,” he said.

However, he added that another interpretation is that price momentum is already slowing substantially, especially when you look at producer price increases and a slowdown in manufacturing.

The benchmark purchasing managers’ index, a measure of activity in manufacturing and services, for example, fell to a five-month low of 50.3 last month, below the 52.5 forecast by economists.

If prices continue to fall and wages remain strong, Buckley said it is possible that the ECB could bring rates down without triggering a deeper recession. He added that this is the base case of many economists, who forecast a lowering of inflation and return to economic growth and lower interest rates.

“You could not make up a more perfect scenario than that, and it makes me worry that we won’t get it,” he said.

FT : Thames Water chief in sudden departure amid turnround plan

Thames Water chief in sudden departure amid turnround plan
Sarah Bentley’s exit comes as concerns grow over the sector’s environmental record and the lack of investment in critical infrastructure

Thames Water has announced its chief executive Sarah Bentley was stepping down with immediate effect, as the UK’s largest water utility struggles to transform its record on pollution and leaks.

The abrupt exit follows criticism from regulator Ofwat over its record on sewage pollution amid increasing public anger over the sector’s environmental record. Bentley and chief financial officer Alastair Cochran forwent performance related bonuses this year.

Thames Water, which supplies about a quarter of the population in England and Wales, was in the second year of an eight-year turnround plan to replace ageing and deteriorating infrastructure, a legacy of under-investment and poor performance.

The announcement was met with alarm among the utility’s staff. Gary Carter, GMB national officer, said the resignation highlighted “what a perilous situation Thames Water is in”.

He added “shareholders desperately need to put the company first and unlock the funds [needed] to keep the infrastructure and workforce of this vital public resource from collapsing”.

Martin Young, analyst at Investec, said the CEO’s resignation at a crucial time was “suboptimal”. “The challenges facing the water industry, and certain companies within it are well known. The next regulatory period will probably see higher levels of investment across the industry, with likely bill implications,” he added.

The announcement comes as public concerns mount over the lack of investment in critical infrastructure. Costs, including interest payments, are soaring, adding to pressure on company finances just as they face demands to increase investment.

Water companies, including Thames Water, which counts the BT pension fund, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and the China Investment Corporation among its investors, have been criticised for high debt levels and complex ownership structures.

Bentley said in a statement that “the foundations of the turnround that we have laid position the company for future success”, although when she declined her bonus last month she said her turnround plan was “not yet where I want it to be” and cited “significant headwinds from extraordinary energy costs”.

Bentley, who joined Thames Water from rival Severn Trent in 2020, will be replaced on an interim basis by Cochran and strategy director Cathryn Ross until a replacement is appointed.

Thames Water said Bentley would help support the transition to a new chief executive, although it provided no explanation for her sudden departure.

Ofwat said following the change of leadership at Thames Water, it would be “seeking assurances about the company’s continued commitment and ongoing plans to improve its operational, customer and environmental performance and [its] financial resilience”.

Ian Marchant, Thames Water’s chair, thanked Bentley for “building a first-class executive team and leading the first phase of the turnround of the company”.

FT : ECB must persist with high rates to ward off wage-price spiral, says Christ

ECB must persist with high rates to ward off wage-price spiral, says Christine Lagarde
Rising labour costs could keep inflation high for ‘several years’, warns central bank chief

Christine Lagarde has urged the European Central Bank to persist with high interest rates to prevent prices staying above its target as a result of tight labour markets and a big increase in eurozone wages.

The ECB president told its annual conference in Sintra, Portugal, that the eurozone had been hit by “overlapping inflationary shocks since the end of the pandemic”. By raising its benchmark interest rate from minus 0.5 per cent last year to 3.5 per cent this month, she said the ECB had “made significant progress” in addressing high inflation but it “cannot declare victory yet”.

Lagarde said the initial phase of inflation, in which the cost of supply shocks in energy and other commodity markets was passed on to consumers by companies, was fading. But a second phase driven by rising labour costs had emerged, with eurozone wages forecast to climb 14 per cent by 2025.

“We will face several years of rising nominal wages, with unit labour cost pressures exacerbated by subdued productivity growth,” she added.

Uncertainty over how these factors would influence prices was likely to prevent the ECB from knowing when borrowing costs would peak, though it has said a further quarter-point rise is “very likely” in July. “Under these conditions, it is unlikely that in the near future the central bank will be able to state with full confidence that peak rates have been reached,” Lagarde said.

“My intention is not to signal any future decisions, but rather to frame the issues that monetary policy will face in the period ahead.”

More companies are hoarding labour because of increased shortages of skilled workers, which Lagarde said was reducing productivity, as wages rise faster than output, putting upward pressure on inflation. Eurozone unemployment fell to a record low of 6.5 per cent in April.

Eurozone annual inflation is expected to drop to 5.6 per cent in June when fresh price data is released on Friday — still well above the ECB’s 2 per cent target but down from a peak of 10.6 per cent in October as energy and food prices continue to slow.

But the ECB has said it will keep raising rates until underlying price pressures are clearly dropping: core inflation — excluding energy and food — is expected to rise from 5.3 per cent last month to 5.5 per cent this month.

The ECB expects companies’ profit margins to fall because of rising labour costs. But if they avoid a quarter of these margin losses it would keep inflation at almost 3 per cent in 2025, Lagarde estimated. “While we do not currently see a wage-price spiral or a de-anchoring of expectations, the longer inflation remains above target, the greater such risks become.”

Italy’s right-wing government criticised the ECB chief’s signals on interest rates. Foreign minister Antonio Tajani said increasing borrowing costs “means putting businesses in trouble. If rates are too high we risk a recession,” adding that he opposed “announcements made in advance, as Lagarde did today”.

Deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini said Lagarde’s comments were “senseless and harmful” and that his League party will talk to the ECB’s Italian representative (Ignazio Visco, Bank of Italy governor) to “discuss the problem and analyse the solutions”. 

Because the ECB has never lifted interest rates as much or as swiftly as it has in the past year, Lagarde said there was uncertainty about when these higher borrowing costs would feed through to consistently lower price pressures. 

Lagarde said the ECB would need to commit to keeping rates high for as long as necessary to ensure inflation falls. “This will ensure that hiking rates does not elicit expectations of a too-rapid policy reversal and will allow the full impact of our past actions to materialise.”

Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note to clients that Lagarde’s “fairly hawkish” comments suggested there could still be some “distance until the ECB reaches its peak rate”, adding: “Rather than viewing weaker growth as exacerbating the policy trade-off, the ECB sees it as the means by which inflation will come down.”

WWD : LVMH’s Bernard Arnault Makes Surprise Visit to Beijing

LVMH’s Bernard Arnault Makes Surprise Visit to Beijing
Arnault conducted store visits at SKP Beijing, China World Mall and WF Central on Tuesday.

SHANGHAI — Bernard Arnault, chairman and chief executive officer of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, landed in Beijing on Tuesday, visiting key retail locations in the country’s capital city.

For his first post-pandemic China visit, Arnault made stops at SKP Beijing, China World Mall and WF Central in downtown Beijing and conducted store visits at LVMH brands such as Dior, Tiffany & Co., Louis Vuitton, Loro Piana, Fendi and Bulgari.

According to social media posts shared on Xiaohongshu, the social-commerce platform, Arnault was accompanied by his daughter, Delphine Arnault, chairman and CEO of Christian Dior Couture; his youngest son Jean Arnault, director of marketing and development, Louis Vuitton watches, and other top executives at LVMH.

According to Xiaohongshu, Arnault spent a particular amount of time at Dior boutiques. He also made a quick stop at Hermès‘ SKP Beijing store.
The Arnault entourage also stopped at The Espace Louis Vuitton in Beijing, an cultural and art space adjacent to the China World Mall that opened in 2017.

An LVMH spokesperson declined to comment on Arnault’s China itinerary, but it is believed the LVMH chief will travel to Chengdu, then Shanghai, both key retail hubs for the luxury goods conglomerate in China.

In April, Arnault and senior members of the LVMH management team met with Wang Wentao, China’s Minster of Commerce, in Paris. Arnault revealed that LVMH will participate in the sixth China International Import Expo in Shanghai later this year. Wang expressed his satisfaction with the strength and diversity of the world’s largest luxury group’s commitment to China, praising the “many commercial and cultural contributions” made by various brands under the group.

Arnault’s China visit comes after a series of high-profile trips made by luxury executives to the country in recent months. Last Feburary, François-Henri Pinault, chairman and CEO of Kering, became the first luxury executive to visit China since the country reopened last December.

Arnault’s expected China visit was first reported by Reuters earlier this month.

China’s post-COVID-19 recovery helped lift LVMH’s first quarter revenue by 17 percent. Asia, excluding Japan, registered 14 percent growth in the first quarter. Despite a swift rebound for the first half of 2023, an impending slowdown in the market meant that luxury players will continue to court big spenders in a bid to sustain the high level of growth seen during the past decade.

Louis Vuitton and Dior, two of the largest brands at LVMH, have been revamping their existing flagships and opening up exclusive salons to better serve super VIPs in China.

TechCrunch : NoTraffic raises $50M to tackle congestion and enhance road safety

NoTraffic raises $50M to tackle congestion and enhance road safety

AI-based traffic management platform NoTraffic has bagged $50 million in Series B funding as it picks up momentum in cities across the U.S. The capital injection comes as the Biden administration’s infrastructure bill enters its second year and a host of funding programs kick in to alleviate traffic congestion, tackle CO2 emissions and reduce road fatalities.

The Tel Aviv-based startup aims to bring traffic lights into the 21st century. Most traffic intersections run on timers, but the technology exists today for a more sophisticated solution. NoTraffic’s combined hardware-software solution turns intersections into smart intersections that can manage traffic flows based on data collected in real time.

The startup’s latest fundraise will help NoTraffic expand its offering to cities beyond traffic intersection management and into a more holistic solution that improves both road safety and traffic flow across cities.

“NoTraffic is poised to elevate traffic management beyond its legacy infrastructure boundaries,” said Tal Kreisler, co-founder and CEO of NoTraffic, in a statement. “Much like mobile phones disrupted the fixed line of their business, it was Apple’s AppStore that opened the door to a vast range of new applications, business models and revenue pools. NoTraffic‘s SaaS platform is designed to similarly create unique insights and functionalities that can flexibly be provided to stakeholders without changes to the infrastructure.”

NoTraffic’s solution involves installing smart sensors with V2X (vehicle-to-everything) chips onto existing infrastructure at intersections, conflict points or complex roadways. The data from both the sensors and from connected and autonomous vehicles on the road fuse to form a complete traffic picture that captures the movement of cars, bikes, buses, pedestrians and other road users.

Using edge computing, the system can determine things like which path each car will take and how that will impact the next intersection, and then make decisions about how to stimulate traffic flow. That information is then sent to the cloud to synchronize each intersection so that the grid as a whole can react to real-time road conditions.

NoTraffic’s tech can also help prevent road accidents, the company says. The same sensors that help manage intersection traffic can also detect when a car might run a red light, or a pedestrian might step onto the street. It can then alert an approaching connected car with limited visibility to slow down and avoid collision.

NoTraffic has seen some serious growth since its Series A in July 2021, when the startup had a handful of U.S. cities under its belt. The startup recently signed on its hundredth department of transportation customer in North America, and is operating in 13 states including California, Texas, Arizona and Pennsylvania.

NoTraffic hopes to use the Series B funds to expand into additional markets including Japan, Italy, Germany and the UK, with an eye towards doubling its geographic footprint in 2023.

M&G Investments led the round, with participation from VNV Global and UMC Capital, as well as existing investors Grove Ventures, Vektor Partners, Next Gear Ventures, North First Ventures, Meitav Investment House, Alchimia Investments and TMG.

WSJ : Brokerage Firm Prometheum Wants to Use Exemption to Trade Crypto

Brokerage Firm Prometheum Wants to Use Exemption to Trade Crypto
Rule 144, frequently used to trade restricted stock, has never been used in the digital asset market

WASHINGTON—A small brokerage firm thinks it has a blueprint to bring crypto trading into the regulated market.

Prometheum’s plan involves the use of an exemption that regulators created 50 years ago to permit trading of shares that were restricted, such as those given as compensation to a corporate insider or sold to an early investor. The exemption is used daily in the stock market to sell millions of shares.

It has never been used in crypto, however, which developed as an unregulated alternative to Wall Street that still doesn’t have a federal market overseer. Prometheum, a six-year-old startup with no digital-asset trading revenue, has cast its lot with regulators hoping to move crypto onto regulated exchanges and brokerages.

“It’s an element of what you would call the intellectual capital that led us to build out a unique business, and essentially other people haven’t necessarily focused on that,” Prometheum co-Chief Executive Aaron Kaplan said in an interview.

Prometheum already scored one first—last month it became the first brokerage firm to secure a special license to hold clients’ crypto assets. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler has touted Prometheum as proof that regulators can find a way to make crypto’s unique market structure work with old-fashioned securities laws.

Crypto has traded for years in the U.S. on digital platforms such as Coinbase, but the SEC says many crypto assets are securities that must be traded by registered brokers or exchanges. The SEC sued Coinbase earlier this month, alleging the company violated rules that required it to register as an exchange or broker.

Finding a registered broker who wants to trade crypto assets still doesn’t make the tokens themselves free to be traded. That is because their sale was never registered, making their resale restricted just like the shares given as compensation to CEOs or public-company directors.

Prometheum says the exemption, known as Rule 144, is one way to solve that.

Rule 144 allows the owners of restricted securities to sell after they hold the shares for a year. The ownership period can usually be easily established because companies disclose when they grant shares to insiders. Private companies that sell restricted shares track their limited number of shareholders. Assuming the requirements are met, the next sale can be made to anyone, including smaller investors, which moves the shares into the public market.

The SEC hasn’t endorsed Prometheum’s use of the exemption to trade tokens that the agency believes are the kinds of investments it regulates.

Some securities lawyers question whether Rule 144 can be used to trade cryptocurrencies that have been trading on crypto exchanges that don’t follow SEC rules. Meeting the exemption’s requirements, including proving that the seller held the asset for at least a year, can be difficult to establish in crypto where trading was meant to be anonymous, said David Adams, an attorney at Goodwin Procter LLP.

“Any broker-dealer that embarks down this path is going to be under incredible scrutiny,” Adams said. “Just because you are approved…that does not mean that goodwill will necessarily continue if you start to list some crypto assets or tokens that the SEC” doesn’t agree with, he said.

Concern about how to trade crypto tokens in compliance with SEC rules has slowed down other brokers that want to connect buyers and sellers of digital assets, said Annemarie Tierney, a securities lawyer who previously worked for Nasdaq and the New York Stock Exchange and now consults for crypto companies. “There is no register of holders of tokens in the wild,” Tierney said. “It could have been anywhere. You don’t know where it has been and who owns it.”

Prometheum has said that crypto assets including Filecoin, Flow, The Graph, Compound, and Celo can be traded on its venue. The original token sales weren’t registered and the issuers don’t provide the kind of financial disclosures that public companies do.

Gensler has insisted that investors buying tokens should get information about the startup that sold the coin and is trying to boost its value—akin to what shareholders in public companies receive. “It’s about disclosure, that the public can kind of look at the project and see what the risks are,” Gensler said in a recent interview.

The token issuer may have an obligation to provide disclosures, but Prometheum doesn’t, said Benjamin Kaplan, who is co-CEO with his brother Aaron.

“We have vetted this internally and with our counsel and it is understood that we are not the gatekeepers for disclosure purposes,” Benjamin Kaplan said. “We disclose to customers that there is a lot of unknowns and certain companies may not be in compliance with the federal securities laws.”

Robinhood Markets, a better known brokerage firm, also applied for the special custody approval that Prometheum secured, but didn’t receive it. Robinhood’s chief legal officer, Dan Gallagher, told House lawmakers in June that SEC officials said one problem was “the issuer disclosure deficiency that the SEC views as being present in crypto markets.”

Prometheum isn’t trading any tokens yet. It needs another regulatory permit to conduct post-trade settlement and processing, Kaplan said. The company plans to announce other tokens it will trade “as we get closer to going live,” Kaplan said.

Prometheum faced tough questions from congressional Republicans last week when Aaron Kaplan testified at a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee. He told lawmakers that he backed Gensler’s view that most crypto assets are securities and argued against writing a new law to regulate crypto, which House Republicans are drafting.

“To testify in front of our committee that your company’s charter, which only allows for trading in a very small subset of assets, is evidence that no legislation is needed just doesn’t make sense,” said Rep. Mike Flood (R., Neb.).

Other lawmakers questioned how Prometheum secured the first special custody license when it is almost 20% owned by a Chinese crypto company. Kaplan said that the Chinese company, HashKey, is a passive investor and that Prometheum no longer has any technology or commercial partnerships with it. HashKey had a member on Prometheum’s board, but that member, Xiao Feng, is resigning, according to a company spokesman.

Prometheum said the SEC investigated its Chinese ties in 2021 and closed the probe without taking any formal action.

FT : Yen slide fuels speculation over government intervention

Yen slide fuels speculation over government intervention
Japanese authorities promise to ‘respond appropriately’ if currency drop becomes excessive

A sharp drop in the value of the yen is fuelling speculation among investors that Japanese authorities are preparing a “summer sequel” of massive market intervention to support the currency. 

Finance minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday that the authorities were watching market moves “with a strong sense of urgency” and would “respond appropriately” if the drop became excessive.

A day earlier, Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda responded to reporters’ questions on the likelihood of intervention by saying he would not rule out any options.

The comments followed the yen’s decline to a level of about ¥143.50 against the dollar from ¥138.75 at the beginning of June as markets judged that the Bank of Japan was now unlikely to lift interest rates from just below zero this year.

“We think the risk of an intervention is high,” said Adam Cole, head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets, who added that the Japanese authorities were most concerned about import prices and the country’s high reliance on imported energy.

The yen remains stronger than levels of more than ¥150 to the dollar that triggered an effort to prop up the currency by selling $65bn of foreign reserves last October. That intervention, the first time the Japanese finance ministry had stepped into markets to bolster the yen in 24 years, came despite a widespread belief that Tokyo would avoid the risk of irritating the US with a unilateral move and sparked a three-month rebound in the currency.


Still, markets are now approaching the point where investors should be on alert, said currency strategists at Nomura. The yen began the year at just below ¥130 to the dollar. A weak currency helps to drive up inflation in Japan, which relies heavily on imported food and energy. While the BoJ seems relaxed about the recent inflationary burst — which could help it sustainably hit its 2 per cent inflation target after almost three decades struggling with deflation — sudden price rises can cause political problems for the government.

Currency analysts noted that in the days leading up to last year’s intervention Kanda had been far more direct in his warnings, and at one point was clear that the ministry of finance “could conduct stealth intervention”. The language so far this year, said Nomura Securities FX strategist Yujiro Goto, is not yet an indicator of an imminent move.

Others pointed out that the currency market was not as unbalanced now as it had been last year, when there was a huge build-up of speculative bets against the yen by global macro funds. Those positions had ballooned because of the rapidly expanding interest rate differential between the hawkish US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan’s unwavering commitment to its ultra-loose monetary policy. 

Since April, the BoJ has had a new governor, Kazuo Ueda, but remains a global outlier among major central banks for keeping interest rates — and long-term bond yields — pinned close to zero in the face of rising consumer prices. 

Benjamin Shatil, Japan FX strategist at JPMorgan, said that even if the Fed was now slowing its pace of rate increases, the persistence of the rate differential with the BoJ meant that intervention was unlikely to have much impact. 

“If the policy rate is going to remain so low, it is hard to imagine the yen going much higher and it is entirely logical for the currency to weaken. I think the ministry of finance knows that,” said Shatil, who is forecasting that the yen will move to ¥152 against the dollar in the second half of the year.

Other currency analysts also said that while the new warnings had powerful echoes of the language used in the build-up to Japan’s record market intervention last year, the background circumstances this time were very different. 

“We should certainly pay close attention to the escalated language but from a fundamental perspective, things have changed,” said Shusuke Yamada, chief Japan FX strategist at Bank of America. He noted that since Japan’s last intervention, oil prices were lower, benchmark Japanese equity indices have touched 30-year highs and Japan has reopened after the coronavirus pandemic to tourists arriving to take advantage of the weaker yen.

“For policymakers the cost benefit balance of a weaker yen may have improved,” said Yamada.

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls

  • Upgrades:
    • Coterra Energy (CTRA) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $31
    • Guidewire Software (GWRE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt raised to $85
    • Kellogg (K) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $83
    • Saia (SAIA) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI
    • Sunstone Hotel (SHO) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt raised to $10
    • Wingstop (WING) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast; tgt $229
  • Downgrades:
    • Adicet Bio (ACET) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities
    • Alibaba (BABA) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; tgt lowered to $98
    • Allete (ALE) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $54
    • Antero Resources (AR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $30
    • Alphabet A (GOOGL) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; tgt $125
    • Ballard Power (BLDP) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt lowered to $5
    • Equinix (EQIX) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt lowered to $815
    • Host Hotels (HST) downgraded to Underweight from Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $15.50
    • Olin (OLN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; tgt lowered to $53
    • Stewart Info (STC) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $45
  • Others:
    • Avita Medical (RCEL) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $23
    • CarGurus (CARG) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $29
    • Cars.com (CARS) initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $23
    • Citi Trends (CTRN) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $21
    • Citizens & Northern Corp. (CZNC) initiated with a Neutral at Janney; tgt $21
    • Criteo (CRTO) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $37
    • DoubleVerify (DV) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $44
    • Frontier Communications Parent (FYBR) initiated with an Outperform at Wolfe Research; tgt $27
    • GE HealthCare (GEHC) initiated with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $76
    • Gilat Satellite (GILT) initiated with a Buy at Needham; tgt $7
    • Mondee Holdings (MOND) initiated with a Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities; tgt $13
    • Montauk Renewables (MNTK) initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley Securities; tgt $6.50
    • Nextdoor (KIND) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $3.50
    • Playtika (PLTK) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $12
    • Rockwell Automation (ROK) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $335
    • Roper (ROP) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $530
    • UBS AG (UBS) resumed with an Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
    • Unity Software (U) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $48
    • Warby Parker (WRBY) initiated with a Mkt Perform at William Blair
    • Zillow (ZG) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $50