>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • RVTY -8.2%, CHKP -2.9%, CNA -1.3%
Other news:
  • MT -3.9% (provides statement regarding tragic accident in Kazakhstan)
  • MAMA -2.9% (files for 5,629,921 share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • O -1.6% (Realty Income (O) to acquire Spirit Realty Capital in $9.3 billion transaction)
  • PEAK -1.3% (Healthpeak and Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) to combine in an all-stock merger of equals valued at approximately $21 billion; also reports earning; also reports earnings)
Analyst comments:
  • TSVT -2.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink Partners)
  • DNUT -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • SOFI +8.4%, JKS +7%, XPO +6.5%, SJW +3.5%, MCD +3%, BGC +2.6%, PSO +2.4%
Other news:
  • MIRO +225% (United Therapeutics (UTHR) to acquire Miromatrix for $3.25 per share and an additional $1.75 per share in cash upon the achievement of a clinical development milestone)
  • MGTX +30.3% (announces $30 million strategic investment from Sanofi (SNY); company pursuing multiple additional strategic opportunities)
  • SRC +12.6% (Realty Income (O) to acquire Spirit Realty Capital in $9.3 billion transaction)
  • MX +7.5% (Introduces 6th-Generation 600V SJ MOSFET Developed with Cutting-Edge Microfabrication Technology)
  • TRML +7.2% (Pfizer discloses 6.26% passive stake in Tourmaline Bio)
  • LITE +3.4% (to acquire Cloud Light Technology Limited for transaction value of approx. $750 mln)
  • MITT +3.1% (ISS Recommends AG Mortgage Investment Trust Stockholders Vote "FOR" the Proposed Merger With Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corporation)
  • COIN +1.9% (positive Barron's article)
  • LLY +1.8% (announces robust weight loss efficacy multiple metabolic benefits and favorable safety profile of higher dose 9 mg mazdutide (IBI362) after 48-week treatment in phase 2 study for obesity)
  • FSM +1.7% (receives positive decision from Mexican Court which reinstates the San Jose Mine environmental impact authorization)
  • STLA +1.6% (Stellantis and UAW reach tentative agreement)
  • DOC +1.6% (Healthpeak and Physicians Realty Trust (DOC) to combine in an all-stock merger of equals valued at approximately $21 billion)
  • AVGO +1.5% (Broadcom and VMware (VMW) provide update on pending transaction)
  • DWAC +1.4% (announced filing of amended annual report marking an important milestone in preparation for the expected S-4 Filing)
  • OMC +1.3% (acquires Flywheel Digital for $835 mln)
  • GSK +1.3% (reports Phase III RUBY trial of Jemperli plus chemotherapy met endpoint of overall survival in patients with primary advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer)
  • VMW +1.3% (Broadcom and VMware (VMW) provide update on pending transaction)
  • NVS +1.2% (reports investigational atrasentan Phase III study demonstrates clinically meaningful and highly statistically significant proteinuria reduction in patients with IgA nephropathy)
Analyst comments:
  • GOLF +2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Compass Point)
  • NWE +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo)
  • ABBV +1% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays)

FT : Broadcom-VMware merger held up as China delays $69bn deal

Broadcom-VMware merger held up as China delays $69bn deal
US chipmaker and cloud software companies insist transaction will complete ‘soon’ despite missing Monday’s scheduled close

US chipmaker Broadcom and cloud software company VMware have delayed the completion of their $69bn merger, which had been scheduled to close on Monday, as they await approval from China.

The companies said in a joint statement that they maintained their “expectation that Broadcom’s acquisition of VMware will close soon, but in any event prior to the expiration of their merger agreement”, which set a final deadline of November 26.

The Financial Times reported this month that Chinese regulators were considering holding up the deal, which was first announced in May 2022, after Washington toughened rules to block Chinese access to high-performance semiconductors.

Broadcom and VMware’s statement did not mention China directly but said they expected to “close [the] transaction promptly following satisfaction of [a] remaining condition”. China was not listed among the territories that have approved the deal, which include the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK.

People close to the situation in China have said geopolitical friction between Washington and Beijing hung over the deal’s approval.

The companies said that there was “no legal impediment to closing under US merger regulations”.

The statement indicates that US antitrust authorities had not lodged objections before the deadline expired for intervention under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, which requires large deals to be notified to the US Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice.

Ahead of Monday’s deadline, both companies had proceeded as if closing was imminent.

Mark Kelly, chief executive of MKP Advisors, an advisory firm, said Monday’s statement was the “first public admission by the companies that they cannot close as planned”, despite the FT’s initial report that a lack of approval from China could delay it.

“Never before has there been such uncertainty over the fate of such a large acquisition so close to a supposed deadline for it to be closing,” Kelly said.

“I’ve never seen anything like this,” said one hedge fund investor who owns VMware shares.    

The delay will leave investors hoping that a thaw in US-China relations could open a path to approval. President Xi Jinping is expected to meet his counterpart Joe Biden in San Francisco next month for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Prior meetings, such as one held in Bali last year, have helped stabilise relations. 

China’s State Administration for Market Regulation did not immediately respond to requests for comment, outside normal business hours.

Moving forward without China’s approval could be highly damaging for Broadcom. The San Jose-headquartered group brings in about a third of its revenue from shipments to China and lawyers say the group could face a large fine for closing without China’s sign-off. 

If Broadcom’s merger with VMware is eventually scuppered by Beijing, it would mark the second time in five years that the technology group has seen its ambitions curtailed by US-China tensions.

In 2018, then-US president Donald Trump blocked Broadcom’s $142bn bid for chipmaker Qualcomm, citing national security concerns about a US semiconductor champion being bought by what was then a Singapore-headquartered company. Broadcom subsequently relocated its headquarters to the US.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • MIRO +226%, TRML +7.1%, MAMA +2.1%, VMW +2%, COIN +2%, AVGO +1.9%, GSK +1.7%, LLY +1.7%, MITT +1.4%, NVS +1.4%, FSM +1.4%, PSO +1.3%, F +1.2%, STLA +1.1%
  • Gapping down:
    • RVTY -4.5%, MT -4.2%, CHKP -2.2%, CNA -1.3%, XPO -1%, WFC -0.6%, IFF -0.6%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of October 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* AbbVie Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $170
* BFF Bank Raised to Accumulate at Banca Akros (+)
* Bonheur Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 230 kroner (+)
* Coloplast Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 700 kroner
* Danske Bank Raised to Hold at SocGen; PT 164 kroner
* Dassault Systemes Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 46 euros
* Eastman Chemical Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $90
* Electrolux Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 96 kronor
* Enento Group Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 19 euros
* Enento Group Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 21 euros
* Femsa ADRs Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $130
* Iberdrola Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 11.80 euros (+)
* Jenoptik Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 30 euros
* Kuehne + Nagel Raised to Outperform at ZKB (+)
* Meta Platforms Raised to Buy at Phillip Secs; PT $375
* Metso Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 10.50 euros
* MTU Aero Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 210 euros
* NatWest Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 150 pence
* Novozymes Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 350 kroner
* Otovo Cut to Hold at Fearnley; PT 3.30 kroner (+)
* Rightmove Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 605 pence
* Siegfried Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 800 Swiss francs
* SKF Raised to Hold at Nordea; PT 160 kronor (+)
* Stockmann Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 2.80 euros
* Stratec Raised to Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 50 euros (+)
* Suominen Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 2.60 euros
* Sweco Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 115 kronor
* Vale ADRs Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $16

>>> Down
* AJ Bell Cut to Neutral at Citi
* Bergen Carbon Solutions Cut to Hold at Norne Securities (+)
* BNP Paribas Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 59 euros
* Datadog Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $84
* Electrolux Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 96 kronor
* Lundin Mining Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT C$9.55 (+)
* Mercedes Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 65 euros
* NatWest Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 190 pence (+)
* Newell Brands Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $7
* Norden Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 420 kroner
* Remy Cointreau Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 115 euros
* Salmones Camanchaca GDRs Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities
* Sanofi Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 95 euros
* Sanofi Cut to Hold at Intron Health; PT 100 euros
* SKF Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
* Tecnotree Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 42 euro cents
* Xilam Animation Cut to Neutral at Euroland Corporate; PT 8 euros (+)

>>> Initiation
* Abrdn Global Infrastructure Income Fund Rated New Buy at Stifel
* IMI Reinstated Hold at Liberum; PT 1,600 pence
* Mandatum Rated New Outperform at KBW; PT 4.20 euros
* Michelin Rated New Hold at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 31.80 euros (+)
* Opap Reinstated Overweight at Euroxx Securities; PT 18.80 euros (+)
* Renishaw Rated New Buy at Liberum; PT 3,900 pence
* Rotork Reinstated Hold at Liberum; PT 320 pence
* Smiths Reinstated Buy at Liberum; PT 2,150 pence
* Weir Reinstated Buy at Liberum; PT 2,500 pence

>>> Call
* AJ Bell Downgraded to Neutral at Citi on Increased Margin Risks
* Danske CEO Says ‘Muddy’ Outlook Drove Provisions Higher: Borsen
* Goldman Says Souring US Growth Views May Create Stocks Bargains
* JPMorgan’s Matejka Advises Shorting European Banks After Rally
* Lar Espana RE Socimi Rated New Buy at Mirabaud Securities (+)
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Year-End Stock Rally as Unlikely
* NatWest Double-Downgraded at Jefferies on Lower Capital Returns
* Pearson Upgrades Profit Guidance and Launches Buyback Program (+)
* Pessimistic Tone in S&P 500 Earnings Is ‘Striking,’ RBC Says
* Rightmove Competition Concerns Overdone, Berenberg Upgrades
* Sanofi’s Equity Story Now Higher-Risk, Cut to Hold at Intron

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +16%
    • Siemens Energy Chairman Says ‘No Need’ for State Money: WamS
  • Pearson (PES TH) +9%
    • Pearson FY Adjusted Operating Profit Forecast Beats Estimates
  • BAE (BSP TH) +2.4%
    • Strained Markets Face Added Tension as Israel-Hamas War Heats Up
  • National Grid (NNGF TH) +2.1%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) +1.3%
    • Stellantis Workers in Canada Strike as Contract Talks Fail
  • Teleperformance SE (RCF TH) +1.3%
  • Kongsberg (KOZ TH) +1.3%
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.3%
  • Nordea Bank (04Q TH) +1.1%
    • Nordea Bank Reader Interest Increases
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -0.8%
    • Aixtron Reader Interest Increases
  • 3i (IGQ5 TH) -0.9%
  • Santander (BSD2 TH) -0.9%
  • Aurubis (NDA TH) -1.3%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) -1.4%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1.6%
  • ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) -6%
    • At Least 16 Dead in ArcelorMittal Mine Fire in Kazakhstan: AFP

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +18%
    • Siemens Energy Chairman Says ‘No Need’ for State Money: WamS
  • Porsche AG (P911 TH) +1.4%
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.3%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +0.7%
  • VW (VOW3 TH) +0.7%
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) -0.4%
    • Mercedes Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 65 euros
  • Covestro (1COV TH) -0.6%
MDAX:
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +2.6%
    • Jenoptik Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 30 euros
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) +1.8%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +0.8%
    • Options Traders See More Earnings-Day Moves for AB InBev, GSK
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) +0.8%
  • RTL (RRTL TH) +0.7%
  • K+S (SDF TH) -0.6%
  • Aurubis (NDA TH) -0.7%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -0.8%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1.1%
SDAX:
  • Stratec (SBS TH) +3.5%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +2%
  • Secunet Security Networks (YSN TH) +2%
  • Suess MicroTec (SMHN TH) +1.6%
  • W&W (WUW TH) +1.4%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) -1.2%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1.4%
  • Wacker Neuson (WAC TH) -1.5%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -1.7%
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) -1.9%

FT : Forget Dieselgate — a bigger emissions problem hides in plain sight

Forget Dieselgate — a bigger emissions problem hides in plain sight
Tyres release many more polluting particles than an exhaust pipe but rarely come under scrutiny

Eat lettuce and you are eating tyres. Your diet may still be vegetarian, but not as green as you think.

We know this from a recent study that traced how a particular chemical was drawn up through the roots and into the leaves of a lettuce plant as it grew. This chemical is overwhelmingly found in vehicle tyres. 

As we drive, our tyres wear down and release invisible particles that we inhale and ultimately ingest. Strikingly, the rate of release of these particles is almost 2,000 times greater than the mass of particles from a modern exhaust pipe. It looks likely, then, that these apparently mundane yet economically vital and technically sophisticated products are a source of pollution that will make Dieselgate — the exhaust emissions cheating scandal of 2015 — look minor. The difference? No rules are being broken, yet current US and EU polices promoting battery electric vehicles through subsidies are set to make the problem worse.

Tyres work hard. They are the only points of contact between a vehicle — which often weighs more than two tonnes — and the road. Those on battery vehicles, which often weigh an extra half tonne compared with conventional vehicles, are usually even bigger and wider to compensate. Add to that the sharper acceleration potential of battery vehicles, and you have a recipe for up to 20 per cent higher tyre emissions. 

Very soon, if not already, the total tyre emissions from all vehicles in the US will exceed exhaust mass emissions. By the time sales of new internal combustion engine vehicles are banned in 2035, tyre emissions will be many times higher. We shouldn’t stop electrification, but we should recognise that battery vehicles are far from emission free. Car weight matters when it comes to the climate.

When we think of products of strategic national significance, we rarely consider tyres. Without them, though, economies would hardly function. Cement kilns are powered by burning tyres as cheap fuel. Asphalt roads contain pieces of them to reduce noise. Clever tyre formulations can deliver lower rolling resistance to vehicles, giving a carbon dioxide emissions benefit to the manufacturer. Even football pitches often rely on ground up old tyres. With their use, however, come adverse environmental impacts, such as deforestation in Asia, the deaths of salmon as a result of ingesting road run-off and lives lost to cancer from football pitch fumes.

Leading players in the tyre industry are already working to mitigate these effects, in advance of looming regulation. Modifying the ingredients and formulas for tyre-making can reduce the potential toxicity of particles released, although this puts the price up. When those tyres are worn out, drivers often replace them with the cheapest option. Therefore, the electrification of cars must come hand in hand with the regulation of replacement tyres.

European authorities are racing to develop the “Euro 7” regulation, part of which seeks to reduce tyre emissions on all vehicles by limiting the rate of rubber loss through abrasion, based on a standardised test. The flaw in the European approach, however, is that it only focuses on reducing the rubber mass shed by tyres, with little consideration for how to control the quality of replacement tyres, and of the chemical composition. The price of lower wear may be greater toxicity.

Tyres are all around and inside us — yet none carry an ingredients list. If there is any doubt about their potential damage, consider the Chinese subjects of a recent peer-reviewed scientific study, who had their urine tested. An average of 709 nanograms of the very same tyre preservative found in the lettuce were passed per person daily. That may seem a tiny amount, but zero nanograms would be preferable, given what we know about the toxic effects in fish. To avoid our decarbonisation mission backfiring, we must take the tyres problem seriously.