>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 4th of August 2023

>>> Up
* Outokumpu Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 5 euros
* TI Fluid Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 150 pence
* Wood Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 210 pence

>>> Down
* Canada Goose PT Cut to C$21 from C$25 at Williams Trading
* Digia Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 6.60 euros
* QT Group Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 69 euros
* Sparebanken Ost Cut to Hold at Norne Securities; PT 53 kroner
* Vanquis Cut to Reduce at Peel Hunt

>>> Initiation
* JD Sports Reinstated Reduce at Numis; PT 140 pence

>>> Call
* Citi’s Manthey Says European Profit Misses Severely Punished
* Ferragamo Revenue Is in Line, Patience Is Required, Citi Says
* Intercos Results Strong, But Outlook More Muted, Jefferies Says
* JPMorgan Strategists Say European Earnings Underwhelm Versus US

>>> What to look at today - 4th of August 2023

Chinese stocks led an otherwise lackluster day for Asian equity markets as US share futures rose to retrace a downbeat day for Wall Street ahead of US jobs data due later Friday. Stocks in Japan and Australia held to tight ranges and traded in and out of negative territory. Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks rose, helped along by signs of official support for the private sector. The People’s Bank of China said will step up its monetary support for the economy and help banks control liability costs at a Friday briefing. The comments followed a statement from the central bank in which it said it would increase funding support for the private sector after meeting with executives from the property industry.  US equity futures rose, retracing Wednesday’s minor losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The advance in futures was helped by gains of around 8% in after-hours trading for Amazon.com Inc. following robust results. This helped to offset a 2% drop in post-market trade for Apple Inc. which undershot revenue expectations. The moves come ahead of crucial US nonfarm payrolls data due later Friday. Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital Management, said he’s short 30-year Treasuries “in size” — as both a hedge against the impact of higher long-term rates on stocks and also as a standalone bet. Bill Gross, the one-time king of the bond world, noted he’s “overall bearish” on 10-year yields, while Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chairman Warren Buffett told CNBC he had been buying Treasury bills and would likely continue. Tesla Inc.’s chief Elon Musk said that short-term T-bills are “a no-brainer.” A report Thursday underscored resilient US demand for workers, while separate numbers showed productivity jumped the most since 2020, blunting labor costs. Those figures preceded the government’s employment data — forecast to show the US added 200,000 jobs in July. While that would be the weakest print since the end of 2020, it’s still a strong advance historically. The steepening of the yield curve extended a trend since the Bank of Japan surprised markets last week with a policy tweak. At 4.88%, two-year yields are 71 basis points higher than those on the 10-year note. That’s compared to a gap of 102 basis points two weeks ago. Oil rose after Saudi Arabia prolonged its unilateral production cut by another month and hinted that deeper reductions may be on the way, putting futures on course for their sixth weekly advance and adding to inflationary pressure.  US After Hours Busy earnings session; AMZN +9.4%, TEAM +22.9%, DKNG +11.7%, BKNG +10.9%, YELP +8.8%, CRUS +5.2% on upside; AAPL -2.5%, FTNT -16.8%, SYNA -12%, RDFN -10.6%on downside; CARG -11.6% falls on earnings delay; TUP +55.1% on debt restructuring deal.

Nikkei -0.18% Hang Seng +1.23% CSI +1.03% Shanghai +0.73% Shenzen +0.85%

Eur$ 1.0953 CNH 7.1874 CNY 7.1794 JPY 142.54 GBP 1.2731 CHF 0.8745 RUB 94.2928 TRY 26.9878 WTI$ 81.71 +0.23% Gold 1,935 +0.05% BTC 29,136 -0.51% ETH 1,832 -0.59%

S&P +0.42% Nasdaq +0.59% EuroStoxx +0.65% FTSE +0.30% Dax +0.45% SMI +0.28%

Macro :
- Bank of England Signals UK Faces Long Period of Higher Rates
- Yields Likely to See Fresh Highs If Crude Oil Extends Above $90
- Citi’s Manthey Says European Profit Misses Severely Punished
- JPMorgan Strategists Say European Earnings Underwhelm Versus US

Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev CEO Sees Cost Inflation Easing Later This Year
- ANTIN FP : Antin 1H Underlying Ebitda Misses Estimates
- AAPL US : Apple Faces Longest Sales Slowdown in Decades as iPhone Slumps
- BITTI FH : Bittium 2Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas to Launch Second €2.5B Buyback Tranche on Aug. 7
- BPOST BB : Bpost 2Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- AFX GY : Carl Zeiss Meditec Sees FY Ebit Margin Low End of 17% to 20%
- CBK GY : Commerzbank 2Q Net Income Meets Estimates
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole Unit to Take Majority Stake in Degroof Petercam
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole Regional Banks to Buy Up to €1B CredAg Shares
- DBK GY : Suma Capital Hires Deutsche Bank for Tradeinn Sale: Expansion
- DIS US : Disney's ESPN Plots Its Streaming Future, Seeking Tie-Ups With Leagues and Rivals -- WSJ
- DOV IM : Italy’s Dovalue Confirms Franchi CEO in Rare Female Appointment
- DUFN SW : Dufry AG 1H Sales Beats Estimates
- FNTN GY : Freenet 1H Ebitda EU254.6M Vs. EU240.9M Y/y
- GAM SW : Liontrust Extends GAM Offer Period to Aug. 23
- IBS PL : Ibersol Says Fergie Buys 10.7% Stake in the Company from ATPS
- ICOS IM : Intercos 1H Revenue EU488.4M, Intercos Results Strong, But Outlook More Muted, Jefferies Says
- IMCD NA : IMCD 1H Revenue Misses Estimates
- LXS GY : Lanxess 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates (1)
- LSEG LN : LSE Teams up With Microsoft to Develop AI Models: FT
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Gains on Strong Travel Demand; Logistics Slows: React
- MAERSKB DC : *MAERSK SEES FY UNDERLYING EBITDA $9.5B TO $11B, SAW $8B TO $11B
- MOBN SW : Mobimo 1H Profit CHF34.3M Vs. CHF63.5M Y/y
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- OMV AV : OMV Petrom Awards EU1.6B Neptun Deep Contract to Saipem
- ROTH FP : Rothschild & Co 1H Net Income EU128M Vs. EU249M Y/y
- SPM IM : Saipem Wins Two Contracts for €1.8B, Boosting Europe Activities
- SPM IM : OMV Petrom Awards EU1.6B Neptun Deep Contract to Saipem
- SFER IM : Salvatore Ferragamo 1H Ebitda Beats Estimates
- SAN FP : *ASTRAZENECA, SANOFI RSV DRUG WINS SUPPORT FROM CDC PANEL
- SAS SS : SAS Seeks More Time on Bankruptcy Plan to Win EU Signoff
- SCANFL FH : Scanfil 2Q EPS Beats Estimates
- SIKA SW : Sika Boosts Full-Year Sales Guidance After MBCC Acquisition
- SREN SW : Swiss Re 1H Net Income Misses Estimates
- TRN IM : Terna CFO to Step Down From Post Aug. 31, Leave Company Year-End
- TOKMAN FH : Tokmanni FY Net Sales Forecast Beats Estimates (1)
- VIV FP : Warner Bros. Discovery Weighs Adding Sports Tier to Max Service
- VOD LN : UAE’s $60 Billion Firm Chases Global Deals Despite Vodafone Snag
- VNA GY : Vonovia 1H FFO I EU964.8M Vs. EU1.07B Y/y
- WPP LN : WPP Cuts FY LFL Revenue Less Pass-Through Costs Forecast
- XIOR BB : Xior 1H Net Rental Income EU69.3M Vs. EU49.8M Y/y

WWD : Fanatics to Sell Merch on U.K. Sports App Dazn

Fanatics to Sell Merch on U.K. Sports App Dazn
The long-term partnership will allow the app's 60 million users to immediately buy items from their favorite teams and players.

Fanatics is getting into the streaming business through a long-term partnership signed Thursday with Dazn Group, a leading U.K.-based global sports entertainment and live streaming business.

Under the terms of the deal, Dazn’s 60 million-plus customers will now be able to purchase licensed team merchandise and sports apparel directly through the app beginning in the third quarter of this year. The second phase of the partnership, which is expected to be live within a year, will be a virtual store embedded into the Dazn experience that will be personalized to the profile of the user and offer merchandise tied to his or her favorite teams and players that can be purchased with one click.

Dazn, which operates in Italy, Spain, Germany and Japan, offers a subscription service for users to see live and on-demand sports, news, analysis and highlights as well as betting, ticketing and now, e-commerce.

“Dazn is the perfect partner for them as they expand internationally — we are on a mission to build a single global destination platform for sports fans that removes friction and delivers everything they want in one place,” said group chief executive officer Shay Segev. “Fanatics and Dazn share similar long-term goals, and this is a great beginning of a long-term partnership. Having an integrated online store where fans can buy their team’s official merchandise and sportswear is part of the overall fan experience — it’s an essential expression of support and fan culture to millions.”

Gary Gertzog, Fanatics’ president of business affairs, added, “Like Fanatics, Dazn is committed to providing global sports fans with the best possible experience when they visit its platform, and this partnership will enable Dazn to expand its offering and make it even easier for fans to access their favorite team merchandise. Finding new, innovative and improved ways to better serve sports fans is something we are constantly focused on and enabling Dazn to bring a fully integrated merchandise offering to its platform helps to do this.”

WWD : Salvatore Ferragamo First-half Sales, Profitability Decrease

Salvatore Ferragamo First-half Sales, Profitability Decrease
The brand, like other luxury labels, said it is seeing a softening in demand in the U.S.

MILAN — Salvatore Ferragamo is “in the central phase of transition,” underscored chief executive officer and general manager Marco Gobbetti as he reported declines in first-half revenues and earnings.

In the six months ended June 30, sales were down 4.8 percent to 600 million euros compared with 630 million euros in the same period last year. At constant exchange rates, they dropped 7.2 percent.

During a call with analysts on Thursday at the end of trading in Milan, where the Florence-based company is publicly listed, Gobbetti emphasized the “good progress in the execution” of strategic priorities, in line with plans. “We kept the focus on the operating improvements and brand initiatives to support a new offering that is relevant for our customer aspirations, while continuing the optimization of our retail and wholesale networks.”

Gobbetti said a new store concept will be unveiled in Ferragamo’s women’s boutique in Via Montenapoleone in Milan in the first quarter of 2024, while the company has so far focused on touch-ups and refreshments, introducing the new logo and the dégradé red color.

The executive highlighted throughout the call that the first delivery of products by creative director Maximilian Davis started at the end of the first quarter and that around 10 percent of the fall offer was in stores, but that he was “pleased and encouraged by the reception by new and existing customers.”

At the same time, he pointed out that improving the “quality of sales and distribution” was ongoing and will bring fruits “further into the year, with a higher share of new products, continued marketing investments, together with compelling store and online execution.” By the end of 2023, the company will have closed 35 nonstrategic and underperforming stores in the past two years.

He said he imagined a third quarter similar to the second, but that he expected a recovery with a higher share of products in stores in the fourth quarter.

Gobbetti expressed confidence in adhering to the strategy he laid out last year and his medium-term ambition “while conscious of an increasingly uncertain market trend that is not ideal.” In May last year, he said he was aiming to double Ferragamo’s sales in four to five years.

Net profit, including a minority interest, amounted to 21 million euros, a decrease of 65.4 percent compared with 62 million euros in the first half last year.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization totaled 134 million euros, down 25.6 percent compared with 180 million euros in the first half last year, with an incidence on revenues of 22.3 percent from 28.5 percent last year.

Operating profit halved to 47 million euros, compared with 95 million euros last year, reflecting the planned higher investments, mainly in communication.

In the first half of 2023, retail sales were down 5.9 percent to 415.1 million euros, representing 69.2 percent of the total, mainly penalized by a softening American market and selected closures planned in sync with the company’s strategic plan. The performances in Europe, Middle East and Africa region and Greater China were positive.

The wholesale channel registered a decrease of 13.3 percent to 166.7 million euros due to the planned rationalization of Ferragamo’s third-party network, mainly in the U.S., and the delayed recovery of the travel retail channel, while the EMEA region reported a positive performance. “We have streamlined and optimized the channel and should be broadly done by the end of the year,” Gobbetti said.

Sales in Asia Pacific dropped 12.9 percent to 189.8 million euros, representing 32.6 percent of the total, hurt by the weak performance in Korea and in the travel retail channel, while the performance of retail in Greater China was positive, boosted in China by local spending.

Revenues in Japan fell 11.4 percent to 45.4 million euros, representing 7.8 percent of the total.

Responding to an analyst who pointed out that Japan and China showed a weaker performance compared to Ferragamo’s peers, Gobbetti once again pointed to the “creative transition and focus on quality of sales” as a priority for the company he leads. “We have been going through a tremendous effort; in Japan we’ve been doing a lot of work elevating distribution and the same in China — 2023 is the year we lay the foundations. Quality will help margins and fuel communication and marketing investments.”

EMEA posted an increase of 10.8 percent in sales to 150.6 million euros, representing 25.9 percent of the total and delivering a positive performance in both channels.

Sales in North America were down 17.3 percent to 155.6 million euros, accounting for 26.8 percent of the total, with the wholesale channel underperforming more than proportionally, mainly as a consequence of the network rationalization. Echoing his peers, Gobbetti said Americans have been traveling to Europe to shop but that local demand has been softening in the past few weeks.

Sales in Central and South America inched up 0.4 percent to 40.3 million euros.

By category, sales of footwear decreased 4.6 percent to 266.8 million euros, representing 45.9 percent of the total.

Leather goods fell 13.6 percent to 234.7 million euros, accounting for 40.3 percent of the total. Sales of apparel were down 3.1 percent to 38.8 million euros. Fragrances decreased 5 percent to 1.8 million euros.

Gross profit amounted to 433.5 million euros, with an incidence on revenues of 72.2 percent from 71.8 percent driven by the ongoing focus on the quality of sales.

Operating costs amounted to 387 million euros, up 8.2 percent, mainly driven by the planned investments in marketing and communication costs, which reached a 10.3 percent incidence on revenues in the first half from 4.9 percent in the first half last year.

Capital expenditures totaled 17 million euros, compared with 18 million euros mainly focusing on the renovations of the retail network and investments in digital.

As of June 30, the adjusted net financial position was positive, standing at 278 million euros, compared with 309 million euros at the end of June last year.

As reported, chief financial officer Alessandro Corsi resigned at the end of June and will exit the Florence-based company on Sept. 30.

Corsi was named CFO in December 2018, effective Jan. 11 the following year.

WWD : Amazon’s Empire Grew by $13 Billion in Q2

Amazon’s Empire Grew by $13 Billion in Q2
Amazon’s comeback is fully underway now, with soaring net sales of $134.4 billion, a growth of 11 percent, and net income of $6.7 billion.

After a string of disappointing quarters, Amazon appeared to be finally turning things around last quarter. Now its cup runneth over, as second-quarter earnings results on Thursday toppled estimates and painted a rosy outlook for the third quarter.

The e-commerce giant filed net income of $6.7 billion, with earnings per share of 65 cents sailing over the 35 cents expected, on net sales of $134.4 billion. Analysts had projected $131.6 billion.

According to the company, this revenue growth amounted to 11 percent year-over-year, compared to the $121.2 billion during the same period in 2022. At the time, the company took a markdown on its investment in electric vehicle company Rivian.

Revenue for its advertising and cloud businesses also beat estimates, with its ad haul of $10.7 billion edging out the $10.4 billion expected, and Amazon Web Services charting $22.1 billion, pushing past estimates of $21.8 billion.

Ads are a growing priority at Amazon, and it’s easy to see why. Revenue may have only barely beaten the estimates but in reality the figure marks soaring growth of 22 percent. Experts can’t resist comparing that to Google and Meta, whose ad revenues also grew, but by 3.2 percent and 12 percent, respectively.

Altogether, the numbers make for Amazon’s best quarter since late 2020, and the company’s not done yet. In the third quarter, it expects sales will crank up even further. Analysts project third-quarter revenue of $138.25 billion, but hitting that threshold would just mark the low end of the company’s $138 billion to $143 billion forecast, which would amount to growth of 9 to 13 percent. The stock shot up nearly 7 percent in after-hours trading on the news.

The business’ comeback mode began in earnest in the first quarter, thanks in large part to serious cost-cutting maneuvers, and the momentum is continuing, thanks in part to AWS bouncing back, according to chief executive officer Andy Jassy. The cloud division saw slowing growth in the first quarter, apparently suppressed by economic uncertainty, but now appears to have found its footing. This matters, because of the impact of AWS on the company’s bottom line, representing some 70 percent of its $7.7 billion in operating profit.

In the announcement, Jassy explained that the business unit’s growth has stabilized, because “customers started shifting from cost optimization to new workload deployment.”

The nature of that workload is meaningful, and not just to Amazon. Cloud providers are often where outside partners engage with artificial intelligence and machine learning technology. As tech’s darling of late, AI has kicked up a flurry of interest and activity from Silicon Valley giants.

According to Amazon, AI made available through AWS is reaching some of the world’s top health care, utility and financial organizations, and it plans to deepen its investments in generative AI. The division plans to invest $100 million in a program, called the AWS Generative AI Innovation Center, so companies can build and deploy their own generative solutions.

Wirtschafts Woche : Munich Re dissolves joint venture with Porsche

Munich Re dissolves joint venture with Porsche

Munich Re and Porsche wanted to expand the business with factories for rent with Flexfactory. That didn `t work. The shareholders wound up the company.

The insurer Munich Re has dissolved the Flexfactory, a joint venture with the car manufacturer Porsche and the Porsche subsidiary MHP. Porsche and Munich Re confirmed this to WirtschaftsWoche. A spokesman for Munich Re said: "All operational activities have been discontinued."

Flexfactory developed service models for companies that no longer own production facilities but only want to rent them. With this Production as a Service (PaaS) approach, companies can save the high investment costs for their own systems.

PaaS is something like the Netflix of classic industry: "Imagine subscribing to a factory," says a paper from the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), the Otto Beisheim School of Management and Flexfactory last year.

Instead of owning facilities as an industrial company, it pays a fee for use. The factories can be flexibly aligned to the needs of different tenants. They share the factory. The money to build the factory, in turn, comes from third parties who build the facility and ultimately earn a return on the rental income.

That's the idea. However, PaaS has not yet had the big breakthrough in Germany .

The business model has three difficulties: You have to find a company that will build such a flexible production facility that you can adapt to the different needs of the tenants. You have to find external investors who will finance you for the long term and who are not looking for a quick buck. And you have to find tenants who then actually agree on rules for shared use.

Against the background of antitrust concerns and the protection of intellectual property, the model is delicate. Outsiders may get insights into their own production methods that would otherwise not be possible.

According to Arnd Huchzermeier, Professor of Production Management at the Otto Beisheim School of Management, the potential of PaaS is still great. In the BCG survey, 85 percent of participants said they could imagine sharing a new factory to be built with other companies. 62 percent would share existing systems. "Especially among machine builders who can provide production systems for the automotive industry, the topic is very hotly debated," says Huchzermeier. "I consider double-digit returns with the investments to be quite realistic."

The failed Flexfactory project does little to change that. Huchzermeier followed it closely. Torsten Jeworrek, who has been on the board of Munich Re for many years, initiated the joint venture. In 2020, the reinsurer and the car company announced the merger. From the point of view of Thomas Blunck, Jeworrek's successor in the reinsurance business, Flexfactory apparently no longer fits into the group's strategy.

The shareholders did not comment on the reasons for the end. Nor are the two Flexfactory managing directors, who are formally still in office.

Munich Re's decision is not a complete departure from initiatives that rely on the service business with shared resources. A spokesman said that the group "continues to invest in the Internet of Things (IoT) business area and the expansion of the IoT ecosystem" through its subsidiaries HSB and Relayr. Relayr offers a per machine based service. This model is called Equipment as a Service. Together with the machine builder Trumpf, Munich Re offers laser cutting machines for rent. Customers pay a previously agreed price for each sheet metal part cut.

WSJ : American Travelers Are Shunning the U.S. for Europe

American Travelers Are Shunning the U.S. for Europe
Domestic ticket fares fall as tourists favor longer trips abroad

Globe-trotting Americans have packed international flights this summer, leaving behind some domestic-focused airlines.

Americans are flocking to Europe. The allure of international travel has travelers swapping out shorter trips within the U.S. or to some nearby destinations in favor of longer journeys.

The number of passengers on domestic flights slid 2% in July from the same month in 2019, while the number of passengers on trans-Atlantic routes increased 14%, according to Airlines for America, a trade group that represents several major airlines.

Airline ticket prices reflect the shift. Domestic fares are down 11% from last year and tracking below 2019 levels, while international fares have risen 11% from a year ago and are up 28% from 2019, according to Hopper, a booking app.

The pivot is cutting into revenue for some U.S.-focused airlines that haven’t seen demand build to the heights it reached last summer, according to airline executives. To cope, carriers are rejiggering schedules and trying out new routes to better match the emerging patterns.

“The current setup is simply not favorable to a domestic-focused airline,” Spirit Airlines SAVE -7.14%decrease; red down pointing triangle Chief Executive Officer Ted Christie said Thursday as the carrier reported weaker-than-expected earnings.

Dan Plotinsky and his family usually fly to New England to visit relatives over the summer. With his oldest daughter graduating from high school, they instead took a family trip to Europe. Plotinsky’s wife and daughters started in France, and he met them in London.

“I think we just decided, let’s try something new,” he said.

JetBlue Airways JBLU -3.62%decrease; red down pointing triangle cautioned this week that it might see a loss in the third quarter and pared its guidance for the full year. Executives at Spirit, Frontier and Alaska Air have said in recent weeks that U.S. airfares have cooled as more of their customers have spent their vacation budgets on trips abroad.

“When we lose 5% of our people to go to Europe, that’s a lot of customers,” Frontier Chief Executive Barry Biffle said Tuesday.

Hotels are seeing a similar switch. Marriott International MAR -1.31%decrease; red down pointing triangle said this week that per room international revenue is expected to climb as much as 30% this year, fueling growth while the U.S. and Canada increase more moderately. Hyatt Hotels said 27% of second-quarter rooms revenue at its hotels in Europe was from U.S. travelers, up from 21% in the same period in 2019.

“We’re seeing Americans broaden where they’re going,” Hyatt CEO Mark Hoplamazian said Thursday.

Travel has been on a two-year upswing as easing Covid-19 restrictions unleashed a torrent of demand that has been stronger and more resilient than many industry observers expected. This summer’s domestic slowdown is one of the first indications that the frenzied pace of the rebound could be moderating.

Some airline executives and industry observers said the international travel surge is a delayed echo of the domestic boom that played out last year.

Months after travel within the U.S. had started to pick up, trips abroad were still hemmed in by lingering rules requiring testing or vaccination records that made some travelers uneasy about planning expensive, complicated trips to far-flung locales while the rules were still in flux. The U.S. government dropped rules requiring air travelers to take Covid-19 tests before flying to the U.S. in June 2022, after some consumers had already set travel plans for that summer.

“That’s really late in the game,” said Mike Daher, who leads Deloitte’s U.S. Transportation, Hospitality and Services practice. “Obviously, this summer, that wasn’t the case.”

Travelers snapped up seats on international flights months in advance this year. Delta Air Lines DAL -1.36%decrease; red down pointing triangle said in April that it had already received three-quarters of its summer international bookings. Delta and United Airlines both bulked up their European schedules ahead of the summer rush.

Domestic demand is still decent, but it is tough to live up to last summer, said Vik Krishnan, an aviation consultant at McKinsey. “2022 was pretty much the high watermark one might argue, for what people would seem to be willing to pay for air travel domestically,” he said.

The change played out abruptly this spring. Cancún, in Mexico, was one of the most popular destinations throughout the pandemic. As recently as April, flights were sold out almost every day and fares were high, Spirit Chief Commercial Officer Matt Klein said Thursday. Less than two months later, that reversed.

“The demand just fell off,” he said.

With many business travelers still sidelined, airlines are increasingly subject to the whims of fickle vacationers, and they are still trying to figure out how to adjust. Carriers are culling flights on off-peak days such as Tuesday and Wednesday, and shifting their networks to cater to leisure fliers. Southwest Airlines LUV -3.33%decrease; red down pointing triangle said recently that it will pull flights from business-heavy markets—think Chicago to Columbus, Ohio—and add service to destinations such as Sarasota, Fla., Tampa and Phoenix.

JetBlue said recently that it plans to try different routes in an effort to tap into new veins of demand. The airline in 2021 started flying across the Atlantic, but service is still limited. “Other airlines have talked about how strong Europe is. We’re seeing that too. We just don’t have very much of it,” CEO Robin Hayes said.

Airline executives are debating how long consumers will give priority to European vacations over domestic travel. Delta and United both said they are expecting demand, at least for destinations in southern Europe, to extend into fall, longer than usual. Other carriers, including Spirit, said they expect patterns to snap back to normal in the coming months as summer wanes.

Biffle said: “We have not made an assumption that this environment changes before we get into the heart of winter. Although I do know that once we get to January, February, it’s a heck of a lot better to be in Florida than it is in most parts of Europe.”

FT : Hedge funds lose $6bn betting against cruise lines and hotels

Hedge funds lose $6bn betting against cruise lines and hotels
Shares in Carnival, Royal Caribbean and Airbnb have surged as consumers keep spending

Hedge funds have lost more than $6bn this year betting against cruise lines and hotels after underestimating the resilience of US consumers.

Cruise lines Royal Caribbean and Carnival are two of the 10 most heavily shorted companies in the S&P 500 but have confounded short sellers’ expectations by more than doubling in value so far this year.

Short sellers — typically hedge funds — aim to make money by selling borrowed stock and buying it back at a lower price when the shares decline. The sharp rally in cruise lines and other holiday accommodations, however, has left them sitting on $6.4bn of mark-to-market losses, according to data from S3 Partners.

Carnival, Royal Caribbean and smaller rival Norwegian accounted for $2.9bn of the losses. Large short positions in Airbnb, which has rallied 70 per cent year to date, and Booking.com, which is up 44 per cent, have also inflicted big losses.

Many US investors started the year expecting an impending recession, encouraging them to avoid sectors that would be exposed to a downturn in consumer spending. However, economic growth has remained resilient in the face of higher interest rates, boosting confidence about the chances of a “soft landing” — bringing down inflation without causing a recession.


Quantitative hedge fund Qube Research and Technologies and UK-based Tellworth Investments are among the hedge funds with publicly disclosed short positions on Carnival, according to data gathered by Breakout Point.

Tellworth declined to comment, and Qube did not respond to a request for comment.

Cruise lines were seen as particularly vulnerable to a fragile economy as they had piled on debt while their fleets were grounded during the coronavirus pandemic. Carnival’s debt pile grew from about $10bn at the end of 2019 to a peak of more than $35bn in the first quarter of this year.

But Norwegian and Royal Caribbean both returned to profitability in their most recent quarterly results, while Carnival reduced its losses by 78 per cent year on year. Carnival chief executive Josh Weinstein in June said the company was “experiencing a phenomenal wave season”, while Royal Caribbean last month increased its guidance for the second time in three months and said “the North American consumer remains incredibly strong.”

Rising revenues have also allowed them to begin making a dent in their debt piles, though Greg Johnson, analyst at Shore Capital, said Carnival remained “a very leveraged business”.

Despite the high levels of debt and sharply rising borrowing “Carnival’s valuation has completely normalised . . . It’s a head-scratcher,” Johnson added.

FT : Diageo vs Diddy spat exposes risks of celebrity deals

Diageo vs Diddy spat exposes risks of celebrity deals
Accusations fly ahead of hearing to establish whether case between drinks giant and rapper should proceed to trial

Diageo entered into a profit-sharing arrangement with US rapper and entrepreneur Sean Combs, also known as Diddy, when celebrity partnerships were still rare.

In 2007, US sales of Diageo’s premium vodka, Cîroc, were lagging. In an attempt to boost its relevance, the London-listed drinks giant made the surprise move of signing the rapper to take charge of the brand’s marketing.

Cîroc flew off shelves under Combs’s direction and by 2010 became the fastest-growing brand in the US, rivalling premium vodka labels owned by Pernod Ricard and LVMH.

“I hit the club, ordered some Grey Goose, switched it for Cîroc to give Puff’s stock a boost,” sang Jay-Z in his and Kanye West’s 2011 track “Primetime”.

Sixteen years later the relationship between the two sides has descended into acrimony, with the musician and conglomerate poised to enter a bitter legal battle over the terms of their partnership. The subject of the dispute is their joint venture, DeLeón, a premium tequila brand the two sides acquired in 2014.

The case comes as a warning shot to companies entering into high-profile tie-ups and signals the potential for more litigation should the relationship break down or if there is a mismatch of expectations.

“This will start happening more and more,” said Spiros Malandrakis, analyst at Euromonitor. “The number of celebrities with spirits brands means statistically these numbers will rise.”

Combs sued Diageo in May for breach of contract, alleging that the drinks giant had underinvested in DeLeón and Cîroc, stymied their distribution and typecast them as “black brands’‘ for “urban” consumers. He accused the company of racial discrimination, alleging that executive Stephen Rust told Combs in late 2019 that “if he were Martha Stewart his brands would be more widespread”.

Diageo called the allegations “a transparent attempt to pressure Diageo into an early settlement of a planned parallel arbitration process” and accused Combs of failing to fulfil his duty as a 50 per cent owner, alleging he only invested $1,000, while Diageo put in more than $100mn.

The legal battle comes at a time of upheaval for the London-listed group. One week after Combs filed his case, Diageo announced that its chief executive of almost a decade, Sir Ivan Menezes, had died suddenly after a short illness. His replacement, former North America president Debra Crew, stepped in a month early to fill the role.

A hearing on September 7 will establish whether the case should proceed to trial — in which intricate details of Diageo’s negotiations and correspondence with its star partner could be exposed — or be resolved behind closed doors through arbitration.

William Delgado, a Los Angeles-based lawyer, said breach of contract cases such as this one were extremely common: “This is as bread-and-butter basic as it gets.” What is less common, he said, were accusations of racism as the basis for why someone was breaching the contract.

Combs alleges that DeLeón sales floundered because of the spirit’s “sparse distribution and relegation to urban communities”. DeLeón was distributed in 3 per cent of all possible outlets, compared with 34 per cent, 36 per cent and 14 per cent for rival tequilas Casamigos, Don Julio and 21 Seeds respectively, according to the rapper’s filing.

The 53-year-old entrepreneur also claimed Diageo failed to practise what it preached on diversity, using images of black business partners in advertising materials without offering them equal opportunity.

The allegations jar uncomfortably with the group’s image as a leader in diversity and inclusion.

“This is about ensuring that all entrepreneurs are empowered to compete and reach their full potential,” said Tarik Brooks, president of the rapper’s company, Combs Global, of the case.

The DeLeón joint venture came about in 2013, when Combs introduced Diageo’s North America president to the tequila, which was popular in Los Angeles clubs. The two sides agreed that if Cîroc was a success, Combs would have equity in their next venture.

“With Cîroc, we tested the waters — or, I would say, we dated,” Diddy told Forbes in an interview at the time. “Now, with this joint venture, we took this step and we got married.”

The honeymoon was a short one. DeLeón did not take off at the pace Cîroc had. When Diageo acquired the remaining 50 per cent of its Don Julio tequila label in the following year, the relationship started to sour. Combs felt further sidelined when Diageo acquired George Clooney-backed Casamigos for $1bn in 2017. The group also bought Ryan Reynolds’s Aviation Gin in 2020.

Industry sources said as a result, the partnership entered a deadlock in which the brand was maintained but innovation and expansion were placed on ice.

The drinks group alleges that in 2020 Combs threatened to go to the press with accusations of racial discrimination. The company hired law firm Cadwalader to conduct an investigation in response to the allegations, according to two people familiar with the matter.

A spokesperson for Combs said: “If they were really interested in getting to the truth, Diageo would have informed and included Mr Combs and his team in the investigation, given the seriousness of the allegations.” Diageo declined to comment on the investigation and who was aware of it.

Malandrakis said the case shone a light on the risks of such high-profile partnerships, including the media attention around the individual that heightens the chance of scandal and the shortlived nature of celebrity. Good celebrity partnerships should be a springboard on which to build a brand, not to be relied on indefinitely, he said.

“Spirits have a horizon measured in decades, not in years. And no celebrity can possibly be relevant for many, many decades. Even George Clooney has a limit,” said Malandrakis. “It might be a wake-up call for Diageo to come up with a plan B . . . beyond celebrity culture.”

Since the drinks giant cut ties with the rapper at the end of June, Combs’s company said in its latest legal filing that Diageo had prohibited him from being involved with the Cîroc brand and had hindered his efforts to promote DeLeón.

“It was never the goal to sever ties with Diageo,” Combs’s lawyer John Hueston told the Financial Times. “They have no legal basis to terminate the agreement.”

Diageo said it had “exercised our contractual rights to terminate the marketing services agreement in place for Cîroc and begin the wind-down of the DeLeón joint venture”.

One week before he filed the lawsuit, Combs launched an online platform called Diddy Direct to help consumers locate stores stocking Cîroc and DeLeón. A Diddy Direct video posted to his LinkedIn profile last month showed Combs distributing bottles of DeLeón to stores in Harlem, New York, with the hashtag #wheresdeleon. The caption read: “Let nothing or nobody stop you.”