FT : Are you ready for UK income tax to go digital?

Are you ready for UK income tax to go digital?
Higher earning landlords and sole traders will be affected from April — but many still have no idea the changes are coming

The way millions of people file their taxes in the UK is changing. Yet despite being the biggest administrative change for three decades, nearly half of those affected are still completely unaware that it is happening.

More than a decade after it was announced, Making Tax Digital for Income Tax, the government’s flagship modernisation programme, is finally on the horizon. From April 6, anyone who earned more than £50,000 in the 2024-25 tax year from self-employment or property income will need to use authorised software to keep digital records and send HM Revenue & Customs quarterly updates on their income and expenses.

While it starts with higher-earning landlords and sole traders — everyone from IT consultants and graphic designers to online vendors, personal trainers and book-keepers — the measures will affect growing numbers of people over the next three years, with people earning more than £30,000 a year brought into the reporting obligations from April 2027, and people earning more than £20,000 a year joining in April 2028.

The reforms are widely seen as the biggest change in a generation — since self-assessment was introduced in 1997. But there are lingering concerns among tax experts about how well the upcoming change has been communicated by HMRC and how well prepared affected people are.

A survey of sole traders conducted by the Association of Independent Professionals and the Self Employed (IPSE) and Sage, a provider of MTD software, late last year found that nearly 40 per cent had “never heard of” MTD and only a third had “true awareness” of what the policy was. The report also found that just one in 10 sole traders are already using cloud-based accounting software.

“Our biggest worry is that hundreds of thousands of sole traders will only find out about this whole MTD change when they come to submit their annual return,” says Josh Toovey, senior research and policy officer at IPSE.

People without accountants who complete their tax returns themselves are the most likely to be unaware of the changes or unclear about their MTD obligations, he warns.

“Raising awareness of MTD income tax has been, and continues to be, a huge challenge,” adds Stephen Relf, technical manager at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (ICAEW), a professional body.

HMRC has sent letters to affected taxpayers who filed their 2024-25 tax return by the end of November, asking them to sign up to MTD. A final letter from HMRC will be sent in mid-March to taxpayers who filed their 2024-25 tax return by January 31.

HMRC said: “We are writing to those who are due to join MTD in April to explain what they need to do. Thousands of sole traders and landlords are signing up every week and we urge customers to check out our guidance on gov.uk to find out more.”

However, the ICAEW warns that some taxpayers will not receive letters until April — the point at which they will need to start keeping digital accounting records. Even if they do not receive a letter, taxpayers who are required to use MTD from this year are being urged to sign up now.

In an indication that the government accepts there are likely to be teething problems as the system rolls out, HMRC has waived penalties for late submissions of quarterly reports during the 2026-27 tax year.

“This [MTD] project has had a bit of a tortured path to become a reality and the problem with that is that it has led people to the mindset that it would never happen,” says Emma Rawson, director of public policy at the Association of Taxation Technicians.

“The message we’re trying to give out to taxpayers is, it’s now time to get ready. There’s no need to panic. But it is time to do a bit of homework.”

Under the new rules, taxpayers will be required to keep digital records of self-employment and property income and expenses and submit summaries to HMRC every quarter. However, they will still need to pay any tax owed in the usual way — either by January 31, or twice a year, via the payments on account system.

Deadlines for quarterly submissions are August 7, November 7, February 7 and May 7. Individuals are also required to submit a final tax declaration by January 31 following the end of the tax year. This will replace the current annual self-assessment tax return for affected people.

You can apply for an exemption from MTD if you think you are digitally excluded — for example it is not reasonable or practical for you to use MTD-compatible software due to age, disability, remote location or religion. But you must apply to HMRC for these and other exemptions.

In order to prepare for the overhaul, HMRC urges affected taxpayers to take four key steps: work out your qualifying income; confirm you need to use MTD via the Revenue’s checking tool; get compatible software; and sign up for MTD.

This sounds relatively straightforward, but there are potential pitfalls.

Elsa Littlewood, tax partner at BDO, an accountancy firm, warns of two areas regarding qualifying income that might be confusing. First, people are eligible for MTD for income tax based on gross income (turnover) not on profits.

“If you think about property income, people often receive it through an agent, net of agency fees, so they might report their income net of the agency or other expenses, like repairs,” she says. Instead, individuals need to be “really focusing on the gross income”.

Another issue Littlewood says might catch people out and lead them wrongly to think they are not eligible for MTD this year, is if they only started receiving income from self-employment or property part way through 2024-25 or if their accounting period is longer or shorter than 12 months. HMRC’s guidance makes clear that in this scenario, individuals’ income will be adjusted to compare 12 months’ worth of income to the new £50,000 threshold.

Meanwhile, some individuals, particularly if they learn of the requirements late, could end up picking the wrong software for their needs, Toovey says.

Taxpayers reporting via MTD must choose from a government-approved list of software providers. Some providers offer a free service, however these may only be suitable for those with the most basic tax affairs. As a result, many people will need to pay for software — a condition some may not be aware of. The IPSE survey found that of sole traders aware of MTD, 45 per cent cited software cost as a key concern — it is not yet clear whether some or all of these costs will be deductible for tax purposes.

Relf of the ICAEW says that for many people it will be their first time using commercial accounting software. “There could be a steep learning curve for many people, and errors may be made. It is important that taxpayers choose software wisely or risk having to change at a later date, further complicating matters.”

Chris Norris, chief policy officer at the National Residential Landlords Association, also raises concerns about the reform coming in at the same time as several other changes affecting residential landlords this year.

“We’re a bit worried about the cumulative load and whether this will lead to people making mistakes. We’re anticipating it’s going to be a disruptive year, which could create a few problems,” he says.

Sean Hill, senior manager at Menzies, an accountancy firm, warns landlords who sell a property to be aware of different reporting requirements for paying capital gains tax. Any CGT will not be included in the MTD reporting and will instead need to be reported to HMRC separately within 60 days of the property sale having being completed.

The deadlines around quarterly reporting are a concern for some. Adrian Ashton, who works as a consultant, says he is worried that individuals would have only one month in which to report their quarterly submission after the quarter ends.

He adds that the additional burden of MTD could prove difficult for many sole traders, who are often juggling other priorities.

“I will comply with it but I think it’s going to put many businesses under a lot of pressure,” he says.

When MTD was first announced in 2015, George Osborne, the then chancellor, heralded the measure as the “death of the tax return”. According to the government, it will improve efficiency, boost economic growth and make it easier for people to complete their tax returns. Making Tax Digital for VAT has been mandatory for all VAT-registered businesses since 2022.

Craig Ogilvie, HMRC’s director of Making Tax Digital, says the new system will help reduce errors. “[It] will make it easier for sole traders and landlords to stay on top of their tax affairs and help ensure everyone pays the right amount of tax.”

Errors currently account for nearly 50 per cent of the UK’s tax gap — the shortfall between the amount of tax theoretically owed and what is actually collected. According to the latest figures, in 2023-24 this was worth £46.8bn.

But tax experts that FT Money spoke to are divided as to whether the changes will benefit taxpayers.

Some think the new system could help sole traders and landlords stay on top of their tax affairs throughout the year. “There are an awful lot of landlords who are tax compliant but leave it all to the last minute, so MTD might be quite good for them,” says Norris.

Hill agrees: “In the long run, having a system that works in the background will reduce taxpayers’ administrative burden,” giving people more time to work on their businesses.

Some sole traders who already use accountancy software report benefits from doing so and feel MTD for income tax will be a useful tool. Libby Austin, a marketing consultant, who gets access to FreeAgent as part of her Mettle NatWest business bank account, says using the software has made her tax return “very straightforward”.

“It is really efficient when you set it up and you probably have less risk of mistakes than if, for example, your formula is wrong in your spreadsheet,” she says. “It’s made my tax return very straightforward and I can do it very quickly.”

But not everyone is convinced. Mike Lewis, director at TaxWatch, a think-tank, said the new system for income is “by no means a panacea” for reducing the tax gap, particularly as it will not tackle people who do not report their income in the first place.

Others argue the costs and disruption of MTD for income tax might outweigh the benefits.

“We support digital record keeping as this should increase the likelihood of business records being kept in a timely fashion, reducing errors,” Relf of the ICAEW said. “However, we do not believe that the case has been made for quarterly updates, where the additional administrative burden and costs for taxpayers and agents will outweigh any benefits.” According to an ICAEW study, 65 per cent of those surveyed agree with him.

Seb Maley, chief executive of tax insurance provider Qdos, is among them. MTD is “seen as a bit of a pain for most people with no obvious benefits,” he says. He adds: “The general consensus is it’s more for HMRC’s benefit rather than small businesses.”

“It’s hard to see how someone with a turnover of £20,000 would benefit from MTD, but that’s coming down the track,” says Claire Roberts, tax partner at accountancy firm Moore Kingston Smith.

Nevertheless, others take the view that a change to a more digital system is long overdue and once the initial teething problems are addressed, people will get used to it.

“Nobody relishes the prospect of doing their tax return, people find it overwhelming and the thought of having to think about it five times a year rather than just once is not going to fill people with glee and happiness,” says Littlewood of BDO.

“But the fear of this is going to be far worse than the reality.”

FT : Prediction markets take a bigger bite of US sports gambling pie

Prediction markets take a bigger bite of US sports gambling pie
DraftKings and Flutter shares slide as investors fret about threat posed by apps such as Kalshi

Sports wagers on Kalshi, the prediction market start-up whose popularity has surged since the 2024 US presidential election, are now delivering estimated annualised revenues of about $1.3bn.

That sum is close to a quarter of the total sportsbook revenue for betting giant DraftKings and underlines the rising threat that prediction markets pose to traditional sports betting operators.

FT analysis of Kalshi data found that trade volume and fees skyrocketed last autumn, as the American football season kicked off. As of this month, Kalshi’s annualised revenues from sports trading accounted for about 90 per cent of all fees on the platform.

The FT’s estimates were based on Kalshi’s publicly disclosed fee structures and do not account for reduced fees paid by participants in Kalshi’s market makers programme, as the details of their fee structures and trading volume are not disclosed.

Kalshi declined to comment.

Monthly active users of Kalshi’s app have ballooned from 600,000 at the start of 2025 to 5.1mn in the year to February 9, according to figures from market intelligence provider Sensor Tower.



The rapid growth has raised fears that prediction markets are taking a slice of the $14bn US sports gambling market.

Shares in sportsbook giants DraftKings tumbled on Friday, falling as much as 15 per cent in New York after the company said it expected 2026 revenues would be between $6.5bn and $6.9bn — short of analysts’ consensus expectations of $7.2bn.

Meanwhile, FanDuel owner Flutter’s stock tumbled by 10 per cent. Both companies have lost more than half their market value in the past year.


Prediction markets such as Kalshi allow customers to bet on binary outcomes of future events. They have been able to bypass sports gambling bans in certain states by arguing that their regulatory status under the CFTC pre-empts state-level laws.

That case is being challenged by states and Native American tribal groups and may ultimately be decided by the Supreme Court.

Both Kalshi and Polymarket saw a strong rise in trading after they successfully tipped Donald Trump as the favourite in the 2024 US presidential election and have continued to expand ever since.

Slowing sportsbook volumes, meanwhile, have fuelled fears that the rise of these prediction markets is eroding traditional sportsbook profits.

Excluding states that recently legalised sports betting, sportsbook handle — the total sum of money wagered by bettors — fell 2 per cent year-on-year in December, according to figures collated by Bank of America.

That was the first monthly decline in volumes since a 2018 Supreme Court decision opened the door to legalised online sports betting in the US.

Last week’s Super Bowl was widely seen as an indicator of the way the winds are blowing. Most states are yet to report results, but the $133.8mn of bets placed on the match in Nevada sportsbooks was the lowest in a decade, according to figures from the Nevada Gaming Control Board.

Kalshi, meanwhile, said trading volume related to the Super Bowl, which included bets on the halftime show as well as sports wagers, surpassed $1bn.

Leading sportsbook operators have rejected the suggestion that they face a structural threat. DraftKings chief executive Jason Robins said that, in markets with legalised sports betting, those switching to prediction markets were mostly “low-margin or even negative-margin customers”.

For the majority of retail bettors, Robins said sportsbooks offered a more fully fledged product with “better promotions”, while prediction markets were a “great substitute” for those living in states that prohibit sports gambling.

Barclays analyst Brandt Montour speculated that while “sharps” — professional sports bettors who consistently beat the market — were moving into prediction markets, the “bread-and-butter retail sports bettors” who generate most of sportsbooks’ profits were sticking around.

Still, many investors remain unconvinced, even as leading sportsbooks push their own predictions products. In a letter to shareholders, Robins said DraftKings, which launched the standalone DraftKings Predictions in December, could “emerge as the leader in this nascent category”. 

FanDuel owner Flutter, which also launched a standalone predictions app in December, has insisted that prediction markets offer an “incremental opportunity” to sell in states that prohibit sports betting.

Speaking ahead of the launch, Flutter chief Peter Jackson argued that customers in regulated states would “continue to prefer the richer experience provided by regulated sportsbooks”.

µ

Citi analyst Monique Pollard noted that data from Similarweb, which tracks internet traffic, showed comparable levels of interest in Kalshi’s website in both regulated and unregulated states.

Figures from Apptopia, which tracks mobile device penetration, show that Kalshi’s app is slightly, but only marginally, more popular in states where sportsbooks are banned.

Kalshi’s founders have pitched their platform as a fairer form of betting because it does not have a “house edge” and instead makes money by charging per transaction — unlike traditional sportsbooks.

While Kalshi offers wagers on everything from politics to weather — chief executive Tarek Mansour has said it is “making the world a little bit smarter about the future” — sports bets account for the bulk of its revenues.

>>> The Week in Review - 9th of Feb. - 13th of Feb. 2026

Investor risk appetite clearly showed additional signs of waning this week despite encouraging key economic readings. Perhaps it was ongoing, rolling dislocations in equity markets due to expected AI disruption, or investors’ general unwillingness to add risk to portfolios despite robust 13% earnings growth seen to date this earnings season. Even a significantly stronger than expected January jobs report, followed by a benign CPI print only garnered modest equity momentum into the long weekend. The overriding narrative remained that the welcomed economic data will still not be enough to pull the Fed off the sidelines, but it did suggest incremental improvement towards the 2% inflation target. Administration officials were quick to make the point that the strong jobs data should not preclude interest rates from going lower, and that is exactly what they did. The US 2-year yield fell to the lowest level since September 2022, and the 10-year benchmark rate moved back towards the 4% mark. The VIX jumped back above 20 with money coming out of technology stocks, Bitcoin, and precious metals and flowing into the relative safety of US Treasuries and traditionally defensive equity sectors like staples. Crude prices moved lower after Trump indicated he is still looking for a deal with Iran and suggested the timetable for talks could stretch over the next month. For the week, the S&P lost 1.4%, the DJIA was off 1.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%.

Corporate news trended to the negative this week, largely on concerns about technology earnings and the looming changes that AI could bring. A number of sectors were shaken up this week as investors tried to sniff out areas that AI-driven technology will overthrow established business models. Investment advisory stocks as well as players in the trucking logistics fields were both struck by sudden downturns triggered by bouts of investor uncertainty over the risk of AI disruption. It was a tough week for many technology sector names in general, exemplified by Cisco Systems, whose shares tumbled on weak gross margins despite modestly beating expectations on the top and bottom line. Shares of IBM spinout Kyndryl plunged more than 50% on an earnings miss and its announcement that its reviewing accounting practices after inquiries from the SEC. Friday saw a number of big Chinese ADRs trade lower on a report that the Pentagon had enumerated the likes of Alibaba, Baidu and Nio as collaborators with the Chinese military – only to later withdraw the document (which could only be speculated as a White House negotiating ploy ahead of the April summit in Beijing). Consumer stalwart McDonald’s was a bright spot in the earnings onslaught, beating estimates easily and noting strong same store sales and improving store traffic. Smaller rival Wendy’s also beat Q4 estimates but suffered double digit SSS declines and its guidance was cold and soggy. M&A continued to flourish in the energy space as offshore drilling contractor Transocean agreed to absorb rival Varalis in a $5.8B all-stock deal.

MON 02-09
(BD) White House: Will establish rule to allow certain textile and apparel goods from Bangladesh to receive reciprocal tariff rate of zero - statement on US-Bangladesh agreement
(CA) Reportedly House Dems may attempt to overturn Canada tariffs by forcing vote on Weds (02/11) – PunchBowl
(CA) Canada PM Carney and Ontario Premier Ford said to discuss early federal election - Canadian press
(CN) China MOFCOM meets with automakers; Will promote auto trade-in plan
(CN) CHINA URGES BANKS TO CURB US TREASURIES EXPOSURE OVER MARKET RISK; THE DIRECTIVE DOES NOT APPLY TO CHINA'S STATE HOLDINGS OF US TREASURIES - PRESS
(CN) China Pres Xi: Urge domestic technology self-sufficiency and innovation - Xinhua
(EU) EURO ZONE FEB SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 4.2 V 0.0E (1st positive reading since Jun 2025)
(IR) US Maritime Administration (MARAD) issues advisory to ships moving through Hormuz Strait, urging ships to stay as far away from Iran waters as possible
(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: Won 352 seats as ruling bloc; Have received strong mandate for my policies; will restart parliament session swiftly; Want to pursue coalition expansion if DPP is keen - comments from Tokyo
(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: I want to create economy that withstands FX changes; Govt constantly monitoring financial market moves
(TW) Taiwan Jan Trade Balance: $18.9B v $18.7Be
(UK) PM Starmer: We go forwad from here; Regret decision to appoint Peter Mandelson (as Amb to US); Must prove that politics can be a force for good - comments to PM's office staff
(US) Reportedly US housing affordability package is set to advance in Congress – press
(US) Reportedly White House leaning on Congressional Republicans to include ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes, revealing that legislators have resisted including proposed ban as an amendment - WSJ
(US) Reportedly White House seeking commitments from big tech companies to ensure data centers don't raise power prices, strain electric grids or water supply for local communities – Politico
ANTHROPIC.IPO Said to assemble team that includes some Alphabet alums and has discussed procuring at least 10GW of capacity over next several years - The Information
CLF Reports Q4 -$0.43 v -$0.62e, Rev $4.31B v $4.62Be; Notes trade environment in the United States continues to move in a very constructive direction; Targets signing a definitive agreement with POSCO in H1 2026
HIMS Novo Nordisk takes legal action against Hims & Hers to protect patients from unsafe, knock-off Wegovy and Ozempic; Asks court to permanently ban Hims from selling unapproved, compounded drugs that infringe our patents, and is seeking to recover damages
KD Reports Q3 $0.51 v $0.60e, Rev $3.86B v $3.91Be; Cuts outlook following CFO transition; Notes material weaknesses in the internal control over financial reporting
LAW Launches industry’s first scaled agentic AI tool for fact investigation and eDiscovery; Model not disclosed
MNDY Reports Q4 $1.06 v $0.91e, Rev $333.9M v $329Me; Notes monday vibe is the fastest product to surpass $1M in ARR in monday’s history
NOVOB.DK FDA pens letter claiming Wegovy Super Bowl Ad is false or misleading and is in violation of Federal Food, Drug & Cosmetic Act
OPENAI.IPO Said to approve first app on ChatGPT written by home insurance firm, enabling users to receive a personalised home insurance quote, and soon, purchase a policy, entirely within the conversation - trade press (update)
OPENAI.IPO Reportedly CEO Altman touts ChatGPT's reaccelerating, back to >10% monthly growth; Also preparing to launch new updated ChatGPT model this week; Also, OpenAI will officially begin testing ads within ChatGPT - CNBC citing internal memo
VAL To be acquired by Transocean in $5.8B all-stock deal; Transocean takes 53% of combined company that will have total pro forma combined EV of ~$17B

TUES 02-10
(CN) CHINA JAN CPI Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.4%E
(DE) GERMANY SELLS €3.811B VS. €5.0B INDICATED IN 2.50% APR 2031 BOBL; AVG YIELD: 2.40% V 2.47% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 1.65X V 1.41X PRIOR
(IR) US Pres Trump says he may send second carrier group to Middle East if Iran talks fail; Trump notes that this time talks are different; Expects second round of US-Iran talks to happen next week; "We can make a great deal with Iran" – Axios
(US) Atlanta Fed GDP Now: Cuts forecast for Q4 GDP from 4.2% to 3.7%
(US) DEC ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.0% V 0.4%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.0% V 0.4%E
(US) DEC IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E
(US) Q4 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 0.7% V 0.8%E
(US) Senate Maj Leader Thune: Will likely need stopgap funding for DHS to avoid shutdown; White House could make a DHS counter offer available soon - comments to media
(US) TREASURY'S $58B 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 3.518% V 3.609% PRIOR; BTC 2.62 V 2.65 PRIOR AND 2.64 OVER THE LAST 9 AUCTIONS
AZN.UK Reports Q4 Core EPS $2.12 v $2.14e, Rev $15.5B v $15.5Be
BP.UK Reports Q4 $0.10* v $0.09e, Rev $47.7B v $48.1B y/y; Suspends share buyback; guides FY26 Capex $13.0-13.5B
CVS Reports Q4 $1.09 v $0.99e, Rev $105.7B v $103.4Be; Affirms FY26 eps, cuts opr cash flow outlook
CVS TTN Summary Earnings Call: Observing significant inflationary pressure from branded drug manufacturers, who have already implemented more than 750 price increases in the first few weeks of 2026, adding an estimated $25 billion in costs to the healthcare system.
CVS Affirms FY26 Rev at least $400B v $412.1Be (prior: at least $400B), Capex $3.0-3.2B - earnings slides
DD Reports Q4 $0.46 v $0.43e, Rev $1.69B v $1.68Be
DUK Notes new data center power agreements with Microsoft, Compass, Amazon, Digital Realty and others, totaling ~4.5GW (+1.5GW since Q3 call) – slides
FISV Reports Q4 $1.99 v $1.90e, Adj Rev $4.90B v $4.95Be
HOOD Reports Q4 $0.66 v $0.63e, Rev $1.28B v $1.34Be
HOOD TTN 17:00 ET Call Summary: average daily trading volumes so far in February trending higher than January; Over 75% of customer support cases are now solved by AI; Plan to more than double Gold Card customers to over 1M by end of 2026, up from 600K at year-end 2025 and over $10Bin annualized spend.
KER.FR Reports Q4 Rev €3.91B v €3.87Be; Expects to return to growth and improve margins in 2026
MAR Reports Q4 $2.58 v $2.64e, Rev $6.69B v $6.68Be
NET TTN 17:00 ET Call Summary: AI agent activity is driving a massive volume shift, with weekly requests generated by autonomous agents more than doubling across the network in January 2026 alone; management views agents as an "ultimate infrastructure multiplier" for their security and Workers platform; Dollar-based net retention 120%, up 1 ppt q/q and 9 ppt y/y
TT To Acquire LiquidStack to Boost Data Center Cooling Solutions; Terms not disclosed
TMV.DE Reports Q4 Adj EBITDA €87.0M v €83.0M y/y, Rev €194.6M v €177M y/y
TSM Reports Jan (NT$) Rev 401.3B, +36.8% y/y, (v 335.0B m/m) v +20% prior

WED 02-11
(CN) Reportedly Trump and Xi will look to extend 'trade truce' during Trump's April visit to China; Could roll back tariffs for up to one year – SCMP
(UR) Ukraine said to have begun to plan Spring Presidential elections, alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia; Reportedly Zelenskiy intends to announce the plan for presidential elections and a referendum on February 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion – FT
(US) BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS (BLS) FINAL BENCHMARK REVISIONS TO NONFARM PAYROLLS FOR 12 MONTHS ENDED MAR 2025: REVISES DOWN BY -862K V -825KE V -911K PRELIM
(US) CBO: 2025 Trump tax act increase 2026-35 deficits by $4.7T; Affirms 2026 deficit $1.9T; Federal debt will increase to 120% of GDP in 2036
(US) F.A.A. halts all flights at El Paso Airport for 10 days; No flights would be allowed to or from the airport for 10 days under a flight restriction order that cited unspecified “special security reasons.” – NYT
(US) Fed's Schmid (hawk; non-voter in 2026): Favor keeping rates 'somewhat restrictive'; Price shocks are transitory based on Fed's response; Not seeing evidence that current rates level is restraining the US economy - speech text
(US) JAN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.7%E
(US) JAN CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +130K V +65KE
(US) JAN FEDERAL BUDGET BALANCE: -$94.6B V -$94.4BE
(US) JAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.3% V 4.4%E
(US) TREASURY'S $42B 10-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.177% V 4.074% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.39 V 2.43 PRIOR AND 2.49 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS
(US) Pres Trump said to privately consider exiting USMCA trade agreement - press (in line with previous reporting)
1876.HK Reports Q4 EBITDA $167B v $191Be, Rev $1.07B v $1.07Be
AD.NL Reports Q4 €0.73 v €0.67e, Adj Op €899M v €918Me, Rev €23.5B v €23.4Be
AMZN Amazon Pharmacy will expand same-day delivery to 4,500 cities
CSCO Reports Q2 $1.04 v $1.02e, Rev $15.3B v $15.1Be; Gross margin misses estimates; Raises quarterly dividend 2.4% to $0.42
ENR.DE *CEO: Have not seen data center cancellations yet; Guides FY26 Capex ~€2.5B, approx 5% of revenues - post earnings comments
FNMA Reports Q4 Net $3.53B v $4.13B y/y, Rev $7.33B v $7.30B y/y
GNRC Reports Q4 $1.61 v $1.81e, Rev $1.09B v $1.17Be
HEIA.NL Reports FY25 adj Op €4.39B v €4.37Be; Rev €34.3B, -4.7% y/y; To cut up to 6,000 jobs over next 2 years (~7% of total workforce)
HLT Reports Q4 $2.08 v $2.00e, Rev $3.09B v $2.99Be; Notes it is increasingly optimistic about the tailwinds building
HUM Reports Q4 -$3.96 v -$4.01e, Rev $32.5B v $31.9Be; Guides init FY26 well below ests
HUM For 2026, the level of conservatism in our initial guidance is higher than typical to account for the dynamic environment; Remain confident in our customer-led strategy and 2026 membership outlook for individual MA; Expect new members to be enterprise accretive in 2026, on average - prepared remarks
KHC Reports Q4 $0.67 v $0.61e, Rev $6.35B v $6.42Be; Guides init FY26 below est; Pausing work on its planned separation citing priority is returning the business to profitable growth; Announces $600M investment across Marketing, Sales, and R&D as well as product superiority and select pricing.
MCD Reports Q4 $3.12 v $3.05e, Rev $7.01B v $6.85Be; SSS strong, seeing improved traffic
PAG Reports Q4 $2.85 v $3.19e, Rev $7.77B v $7.64Be; Raises quarterly dividend 1.4% to $1.40 from $1.38 (indicated yield 3.36%)
SCHW CEO: Schwab using AI-driven Wealth.com to assist with clients; AI helps financial advisors, not make them irrelevant - TV interview
TMUS Reports Q4 $1.88 v $2.03e, Rev $24.3B v $23.6Be; Guides initial FY26 adj FCF below estimates
TMUS Unveils real-time agentic AI platform; Live translation Beta begins this Spring for 50 languages in real-time on any phone, with registration now open for T-mobile postpaid members
VRT Reports Q4 $1.36 adj v $1.29e, Rev $2.88B v $2.88Be; Guides FY26 strong

THRS 02-12
(CN) REPORTEDLY TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS SHELVED A NUMBER OF KEY TECH SECURITY MEASURES AIMED AT BEIJING AHEAD OF AN APRIL MEETING BETWEEN TRUMP AND XI - PRESS
US Department of Commerce Increases Duties on Chinese Battery-Grade Graphite to 160%+ in Final Determinations; Duties will remain in effect unless revoked and will be reviewed every five years
(IR) Trump: I guess a deal with Iran could be reached over the next month; I will talk to them as long as I like; Any deal is ultimately up to me
(UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.2%E
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 227K V 223KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.862M V 1.850ME
(US) JAN EXISTING HOME SALES: 3.91M V 4.15ME (slowest pace since Dec 2023)
(US) TREASURY $25B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.750% V 4.825% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.66 V 2.42 PRIOR AND 2.41 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(US) Reportedly top AI experts at OpenAI, Anthropic and other companies warn of rising dangers of their technology, with some quitting in protest or going public with grave concerns - Axios
9984.JP TTN 02:30 ET Call Summary: No follow-on investment in OpenAI has been decided; future investments will be governed by maintaining loan-to-value below 25% and cash to cover two years of bond redemptions ; Shifted corporate strategy to become a "platform provider" or "core pillar" for the industry, specifically targeting infrastructure and services essential for the transition from AI to Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI).
Tier1 analysts: We believe A.I. a very real threat to personal lines and small commercial commissions, particularly those profit contingent; At the current moment, the disintermediation from A.I. is still largely theoretical. Direct-to-consumer sales have only seen success in personal auto, and even homeowners' has struggled to find consumers interested. This creates a non-falsifiable narrative.
ABI.BE Reports Q4 Underlying $0.95 v $0.92e, Rev $15.6B v $15.6Be
AEP Reports Q4 $1.19 adj v $1.15e, Rev $5.31B v $5.23Be
CHKP Reports Q4 $3.40 v $2.77e, Rev $745M v $746Me; Acquires Cyata to further expand our AI security stack, enabling full discovery, governance, and control of AI agents as organizations accelerate their AI journeys; No terms disclosed
COIN Reports Q4 $0.66 v $0.61e, Rev $1.78B v $1.82Be
FDX Issues Investor Day Outlook; Adjusts FY26 Rev ex-Freight $85B, Adj Op income $5.0B, Adj Op margin 6.0%; Due to exceptional execution in delivering a successful Peak season, expects Q3 Adj EPS above consensus average
GOOGL Releases major update to Gemini 3, Deep Think, in a close partnership with scientists and researchers to tackle research challenges - blog
NVX *US Department of Commerce Increases Duties on Chinese Battery-Grade Graphite to 160%+ in Final Determinations; Duties will remain in effect unless revoked and will be reviewed every five years
SIE.DE Reports Q1 Net €2.2B v €3.17B y/y, Rev €19.1B v €19.0Be
SMR To Collaborate with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to Explore Artificial Intelligence-Guided Nuclear Fuel Management
TKA.DE Reports Q1 Net -€353M v -€51M y/y, adj EBIT €211M v €191M y/y, Rev €7.19B v €7.83B y/y
TRU Reports Q4 $1.07 v $1.03e, Rev $1.17B v $1.14Be; Rasies dividend 9%
UNA.NL Reports Q4 Rev €12.6B v €12.9Be; Announces €1.5B share buyback; Notes slower market conditions

FRI 02-13
(US) White House Navarro: No basis in fact that Pres Trump will walk back steel tariffs; Trump has a 'no exemptions, no exclusions' rule - CNBC
(US) Supreme Court confirms Feb 20th, 24th and 25th will be opinion days
(US) Senator Tillis (R-NC): No intention to move forward with any Fed nominee; Prove me wrong or resolve the investigation into Fed Chair Powell - TV interview
REPORTEDLY OPEC+ NATIONS SEE SCOPE TO RESUME PRODUCTION HIKES IN APRIL; HAS NOT YET DECIDED ON PLANS - PRESS
(US) JAN CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.5%E
(CH) SWISS JAN CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 0.1% V 0.1%E
(US) Atlanta Jan Sticky-CPI (12-month annualized) 3.0% v 3.1% m/m; Core Sticky CPI (1-month annualized) 4.6% v 3.1% m/m
BABA US Pentagon confirms added Alibaba to list of firms aiding China military, as well as BYD, Baidu, Huawei, Nio, Cosco and TP-Link - press
MSFT Reportedly FTC investigation into company intensifies, with FTC interviewing rivals on cloud and AI products - press
STLA Said to resurrect at least seven diesel car and passenger van models in Europe - press cites company and dealers
AAP Reports Q4 $0.86 v $0.41e, Rev $2B v $1.95Be

WSJ : Pentagon Used Anthropic’s Claude in Maduro Venezuela Raid

Pentagon Used Anthropic’s Claude in Maduro Venezuela Raid
Use of the model through a contract with Palantir highlights growing role of AI in the Pentagon

  • Anthropic’s AI tool Claude was used in a U.S. military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
  • Anthropic’s concerns about Claude’s use by the Pentagon have led administration officials to consider canceling its $200 million contract.
  • Anthropic was the first AI model developer used in classified Department of Defense operations, which boosts AI companies.

Anthropic’s artificial-intelligence tool Claude was used in the U.S. military’s operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, highlighting how AI models are gaining traction in the Pentagon, according to people familiar with the matter.

The mission to capture Maduro and his wife included bombing several sites in Caracas last month. Anthropic’s usage guidelines prohibit Claude from being used to facilitate violence, develop weapons or conduct surveillance.

“We cannot comment on whether Claude, or any other AI model, was used for any specific operation, classified or otherwise,” said an Anthropic spokesman. “Any use of Claude—whether in the private sector or across government—is required to comply with our Usage Policies, which govern how Claude can be deployed. We work closely with our partners to ensure compliance.”

The Defense Department declined to comment.

The deployment of Claude occurred through Anthropic’s partnership with data company Palantir Technologies PLTR 1.77%increase; green up pointing triangle, whose tools are commonly used by the Defense Department and federal law enforcement, the people said. Anthropic’s concerns about how Claude can be used by the Pentagon have pushed administration officials to consider canceling its contract worth up to $200 million, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. Palantir didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Anthropic was the first AI model developer to be used in classified operations by the Department of Defense. It is possible other AI tools were used in the Venezuela operation for unclassified tasks. The tools can be used for everything from summarizing documents to controlling autonomous drones.

Adoption by the military is seen as a key boost for AI companies that are competing for legitimacy and seeking to live up to their enormous valuations from investors.

Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei and other CEOs have been publicly grappling with the power of their models and the risks they could pose to society. Amodei has broken with many other industry executives in calling for greater regulation and guardrails to prevent harms from AI. The safety-focused company and others in the industry have lost workers who have described them as giving priority to growth over responsible technology development.

At a January event announcing that the Pentagon would be working with xAI, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the agency wouldn’t “employ AI models that won’t allow you to fight wars,” a comment that referred to discussions administration officials have had with Anthropic, the Journal reported.

The $200 million contract was awarded to Anthropic last summer. Amodei has publicly expressed concern about AI’s use in autonomous lethal operations and domestic surveillance, the two major sticking points in its current contract negotiations with the Pentagon, according to people familiar with the matter.

The constraints have escalated the company’s battle with the Trump administration, which includes accusations that Anthropic is undermining the White House’s low-regulation AI strategy by calling for more guardrails and limits on AI chip exports.

Amodei and other co-founders of Anthropic previously worked at OpenAI, which recently joined Google’s Gemini on an AI platform for military personnel used by some three million people. The company and Defense Department said the custom version of ChatGPT would be used for analyzing documents, generating reports and supporting research.

WSJ : China Deploys a ‘National Team’ of Investors to Keep AI Stock Boom in Chec

China Deploys a ‘National Team’ of Investors to Keep AI Stock Boom in Check
Beijing’s group of state-linked funds tamps down market, fearing irrational speculation


China’s “national team” of state-linked investors is selling stock holdings to cool a booming market, reversing its usual role.
The intervention aims to prevent drastic market fluctuations and guide long-term investment, as Chinese stocks rose 20% in the past year.
Goldman Sachs reported nearly $110 billion in outflows from China-focused ETFs in late January, suggesting national team selling.

When the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 50000 for the first time this month, President Trump celebrated and predicted it would be double that by the end of his term.

In China, officials have had a different reaction to the country’s own stock-market boom. A group of state-linked investors has stepped in, unloading holdings to cool things down.

The group is known by market players as the “national team,” and it functions as a market stabilization fund. It has been a fixture in the Chinese stock market for more than a decade, usually buying exchange-traded funds, and was widely noted when it intervened to prop up prices during a 2015 crash. After Trump announced his “liberation day” tariffs in April 2025, triggering a global stock selloff, the national team stepped in to relieve the pain as a buyer of index funds.

But the team doesn’t just apply a flattering touch-up to sickly markets. It also tones down the glow when investors get too rosy.

“We must resolutely prevent drastic market fluctuations and actively guide long-term and rational investment,” Wu Qing, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, said in a speech last month.

Chinese stocks have been on a serious bull run.

The CSI 300 benchmark, which tracks shares listed in both Shanghai and Shenzhen, has risen more than 20% over the past year, despite the April dip. Last month, trading volume across mainland Chinese stock exchanges reached a record high. The country’s stocks have been performing even better than in the U.S., where the S&P 500 rose 14% over the same period.

Analysts have attributed the rise to enthusiasm about artificial-intelligence breakthroughs in China and a truce in the trade war between the U.S. and China. A handful of companies in AI-connected fields, such as semiconductors and data-center equipment, now sport market capitalizations in the tens of billions of dollars despite having relatively modest profits or none at all.

The Chinese government prefers what analysts call a “slow bull” market. According to Goldman Sachs, domestic China-focused ETFs had outflows of almost $110 billion in the second half of January, suggesting selling by the national team.

“Substantial yet well-paced selling by the national team is curbing—but not killing—the positive market momentum,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note earlier this month.

Beijing wants to foster a stockholding culture so companies can raise money from private-sector investors and become less reliant on bank loans. It also wants to encourage regular people to consider stock investing to build up assets for retirement.

Stocks account for only 11% of total assets held by households in China compared with 32% in the U.S. Most of the assets held by the Chinese are in the form of property, a market that has been in crisis for years.


At the same time, Chinese officials worry a frenzied rush toward stock investing would result in burst bubbles, big losses and instability. The immediate victims would be individual investors, who account for 60% of daily trading.

So the government is trying to stimulate the market while using the tools to stabilize it when necessary.

There is no official list of who makes up the national team, but a core member is a unit of China’s sovereign-wealth fund called Central Huijin Investment. During the April market commotion, a Central Huijin official told reporters that it has played a role in stabilizing markets since 2008 and mentioned the national team by name. Its stockholdings are vast, it has plenty of cash and it can get liquidity support from the People’s Bank of China, the official said.

Analysts say another member of the group is China Securities Finance, a margin lender. Some major pension funds, state-backed asset-management companies and brokerages have also been included by analysts in the definition.

As of the third quarter of 2025, the group had around 6 trillion yuan, equivalent to about $870 billion, in exposure to Chinese equities, according to Goldman. That amounted to 6% of the market capitalization of China A-shares, which are stocks denominated in yuan and listed mainly in Shanghai and Shenzhen.

The national team’s existence has long turned off some investors who are accustomed to free markets and don’t want their stock bets to fail because someone in Chinese officialdom preferred a different direction.

“We would consider investing in China, but given the government interference, the answer is no,” said Rui Soares, an investment manager at FAM Frankfurt Asset Management, a German boutique firm with $1.4 billion under management and some investments in Japanese ETFs.

The opposite view was expressed by Xin Wu, founder of Banyan Partners, an investment-management firm specializing in China-related equities. Wu said he focused on picking individual stocks that could beat the market and didn’t mind if the national team was buying or selling ETFs tracking broad indexes.

“And really—what market wouldn’t like a slow bull run?” Wu added.

>>> Interesting comment from UBS : Only Tangible Assets Are Safe




 

The intangible era is over. This past week has felt like another week when decades happen. Questions never raised about long-standing business models and perceived ‘moats’ collided headfirst into the disruptive side of AI. I don’t think we have seen the last of it. The back and forth of AI productivity and AI disruption means more S&P 500 whipsawing. I think the dips should be bought, but today’s note is about what to buy and what to stay clear of. Stocks heavily exposed to Intangible Assets {UBXXINTG} remain the most at risk, while the era of real Tangible Assets {UBXXTANG} may just be getting started. I don’t expect it to be a straight line, but in the new world of AI disruption, owning tangible assets presents the strongest defense. The investment implications of this trend are many, but my favorite trades include: (1) Short XBI, (2) Long MDY, (3) Long KRE, and (4) Long EEM/EWZ.

 

Read on Neo

 

---------------

7 min read

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1) What’s Driving Markets

  • This year, stocks with a higher share of intangible assets have underperformed stocks with a higher share of tangible real assets. Out of a 1,700-stock universe, the top two decile cohorts of stocks when ranked by their ‘intangible asset intensity’ have both sold off nearly 8% (Chart 1). Simply put, AI is coming for intangible businesses, but tangible real assets remain more insulated from AI disruption. This is also clear when looking at some of the worst performing themes this year: Software -22%, Internet -21%, Gaming -25%, and even Wealth Managers -8%. This compares to the best performing themes this year: Metals & Mining +20%, Short Cycle Industrials +20%, Energy +16%, and Memory +59%.

 

Chart 1

Source: Bloomberg, UBS

 

 

2) AI Disruption Meets Cyclical Reacceleration

  • Adding fuel to the fire, the macro backdrop is increasingly supportive of tangible asset heavy businesses. The cyclical reacceleration theme that we have been endorsing is underway (Top Trades for 2026). The number of encouraging macro data points, like last week’s historic ISM Manufacturing PMI, continue to grow and the charts consistently point to a story of cyclical reacceleration (Chart 2).

 

Chart 2

 

 

3) Tangible Assets vs. Intangible Assets {UBXXTANG vs. UBXXINTG}

  • We set out to measure the ‘intangible asset intensity’ for the individual stocks in our US equity universe. We rank all 1,700 securities with a composite intangible asset score which captures balance sheet tangibility (PP&E/Assets), reinvestment mix (Capex vs. R&D), and capital intensity among other financial metrics. REITs and Financials are excluded due to lack of data availability and consistency. The result is two 100-stock baskets:
    1. Tangible Assets Basket {UBXXTANG} – This basket offers broad, cross-sector exposure to stocks that are tangible asset heavy. The most represented industries include Mining, Energy, Utilities, Aerospace, Restaurants, and Transportation. This basket, which is up 18% this year, also has a pronounced cyclical tilt.
    2. Intangible Assets Basket {UBXXINTG} – Stocks with the highest intangible asset intensity hail from Software, Biotech, Internet, and Media. Companies with high intangible assets often possess one of three perceived ‘moats’—Digital, Scientific, or Brand. Brand moats seem still shielded from AI disruption, so most of the stocks in this 100-stock basket possess Digital or Scientific moats.

 

Chart 3

 

 

4) Investment Implications

  • The rotation has been unrelenting to start the year, but I don’t believe it’s entirely done. If it does have legs, the investment implications are numerous. The end of the ‘intangible era’ could mean more rotations as the composition of indices and investor portfolios have been biased by years of outperformance which came to a head this year.A few thoughts:
  1. Thematic Exposure: Portfolio exposure should lean heavily into tangible real assets. The chart below shows the average ‘intangible asset intensity’ by industry group as an approximation but it looks mostly intuitive (Chart 4).
  • Long: Cap Goods, Metals, Energy, Transports, Materials, Airlines, Defense Primes, Restaurants, Utilities
  • Short: Software,Biotech, Internet, Media, Professional Services
  1. Regional Exposure: EM ex-China > Europe > USA
  2. Style Preference: There is plenty of overlap between value, cyclicality, and tangible asset heavy companies. The same is true for growth and intangible asset heavy companies. This is best expressed via the pair trade: Pure Value vs. Pure Growth {UBXXPVAL vs. UBXXPGRO}, which is up 20% already this year.
  3. What About AI? Exposure to tangible real asset businesses is paramount, ideally that exposure is also critical to AI. Thus AI Power {UBXXVOLT}, AI Semis {UBXXSEMA}, and AI Winners {UBXXAIW} should still be fine.

 

Chart 4

Source: Bloomberg, UBS

 

 

5) Trade Recommendations

  • Some old and some new trade recommendations below influenced by our analysis of the tangible vs. intangible asset divide. We highlight just four trade ideas today, but the list could be much longer.
    1. Short XBI (Biotech) – This may be controversial, but I do see similarities to Software in Biotech. Much like Software, Biotech is a highly intangible business but in the case of Biotech, the ‘moat’ is Scientific rather than Digital. Also, like Software was at one point, Biotech is believed to be an AI winner at some point in the future. That was originally part of the bull thesis for Software, but it has not turned out that way (Unresolvable Existential Threat). Timing, as they say, is everything, but after an 85% rally off the Liberation Day lows, an AI breakthrough in the realm of drug discovery could reduce the value of scientific IP, pushing Biotech to the other side of the ‘AI Risk’ divide (Chart 5).
    2. Long MDY (Mid Caps) – We continue to highlight MDY as one of our top picks for 2026. As an index, MDY still has all the right exposure and notably has outperformed not only the S&P 500 index but the Russell 2000 this year (Chart 6). Despite 9% outperformance this year, Mid Caps still trade at a 4x P/E discount to the S&P 500.
    3. Long KRE (Regional Banks) – Like Mid Caps, we continue to highlight KRE as one of our top picks for 2026. The best performing Financials subsector and in fact the only one in the green, Regional Banks are up 9% this year. But do they have exposure to tangible or intangible assets? While bank balance sheets are comprised of loans, the collateral for those loans is mostly tangible (how banks are valued). And of course, banks remain a clean way to play for a cyclical broadening. In fact, out of 150 baskets in the US, Regional Banks have the strongest earnings revisions momentum.
    4. Long EEM / EWZ (EM / Brazil) – It remains a great macro backdrop for EM equities and especially classical commodity-exposed countries like Brazil via the EWZ ETF. An end to the ‘intangible era’ and the beginning of a commodity cycle would help push EWZ back to levels not seen in over a decade.

 

Chart 5

 

 

Chart 6

 

The Information : China’s MiniMax Launches New Flagship AI Model M2.5

China’s MiniMax Launches New Flagship AI Model M2.5
Chinese AI models offering strong coding and agentic capabilities are gaining worldwide recognition from app developers.

Chinese AI developer MiniMax launched its latest flagship open-source large language model, M2.5, adding to the recent flood of new model releases from China.

Shanghai-based MiniMax said M2.5 offers strong performances in coding and agentic tasks, at significantly lower prices than major U.S. proprietary models. The model, like other recently launched Chinese models, is likely to appeal to application developers who are seeking decent but cheaper alternatives to Anthropic’s Claude and other U.S. models.

MiniMax went public in Hong Kong last month. The company’s stock was up nearly 10% as of Friday morning after its announcement of M2.5.

Chinese AI models are gaining worldwide recognition. Beijing-based Zhipu’s latest flagship model GLM-5, also released this week, has received positive reviews, especially in coding. Earlier this month, another Chinese competitor, Beijing-based Moonshot AI, launched its new model called Kimi K2.5, which last week became the most popular model by usage on LLM marketplace OpenRouter.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of February 2026 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Adyen Raised to Buy at Bank Degroof Petercam; PT 1,300 euros (++)
* Alfen Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 9 euros (++)
* Allegro MicroSystems Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* AMG PT Raised to 45 euros from 35 euros at ING (++)
* Applied Materials Raised to Buy at Summit Insights
* AQ Group Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 200 kronor
* ASML Raised to Buy at NYKREDIT; PT 1,450 euros (++)
* Atria Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 19 euros
* Crocs PT Raised to $95 from $85 at Piper Sandler
* CrowdStrike Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $446
* Do & Co Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Embracer Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 70 kronor
* Fagron PT Raised to 28 euros from 26 euros at Berenberg
* Harvia Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 44 euros
* Harvia Raised to Buy at DNB Carnegie; PT 40 euros (++)
* Heijmans GDRs Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 68.50 euros (++)
* Indra Raised to Buy at Alantra Equities; PT 59.50 euros (++)
* Legrand PT Raised to 175 euros from 165 euros at JPMorgan
* Legrand PT Raised to 175 euros from 165 euros at Citi
* Legrand PT Raised to 176 euros from 145 euros at BofA (+)
* LINK Mobility Raised to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 25 kroner (++)
* Marimekko Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 12.50 euros
* NN Group PT Raised to 86 euros from 70 euros at Berenberg
* Norion Bank Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Orkla Price Target Raised to NOK 118 from NOK 109 by SEB
* Pihlajalinna Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 17 euros
* PVA TePla Raised to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 25 euros
* Rathbones Group PT Raised to 2,500 pence from 2,100 pence at RBC
* Rivian Raised to Neutral at UBS; PT $16
* Rivian Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $23 (++)
* Siemens PT Raised to 335 euros from 290 euros at Citi
* TietoEVRY Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 22.20 euros
* Vaisala Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 51 euros
* Vaisala Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 51 euros
* Weir Group PT Raised to 4,000 pence from 3,450 pence at UBS (++)

>>> Down
* Acast Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 30 kronor
* Aallon Group Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 10.50 euros
* AstraZeneca Cut to Hold at Shore Capital
* Carl Zeiss Meditec PT Cut to 22.40 euros at JPMorgan
* Cementir Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 20 euros (+)
* Commerzbank Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader (++)
* DSM-Firmenich Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Elmera Group ASA Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 38 kroner
* Enagas Cut to Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 15.50 euros
* Etteplan Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 9.50 euros
* Faron Pharma Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen (+)
* H&M Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 162 kronor
* Icape Holding Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Innelec Multimedia Cut to Neutral at Invest Securities SA (++)
* Komplett Cut to Sell at DNB Carnegie; PT 10 kroner (++)
* Lime Technologies Price Target Cut to SEK 350 from SEK 420 by SEB
* LINK Mobility Cut to Hold at DNB Carnegie (++)
* Luzerner Kantonalbank Cut to Market Perform at ZKB (+)
* Magnum Ice Cream Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen (+)
* NIBE Industrier Cut to Hold at DNB Carnegie (++)
* Norwegian Cruise Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $20
* Odfjell Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 104 kroner (++)
* Orkla Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* OTP Bank Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 43,200 forint
* Raute Cut to Accumulate at Evli Bank; PT 15 euros (++)
* Sinch Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 29 kronor (++)
* Tekova Cut to Accumulate at Evli Bank; PT 1.45 euros (++)
* TripAdvisor PT Cut to $10 from $13 at Barclays
* Verbund Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Volvo Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 360 kronor

>>> Initiation
* AMD Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson
* Generali Resumed Buy at Citi; PT 43.40 euros
* Intel Rated New Neutral at DA Davidson
* Mondi Reinstated Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 915 pence
* Tapestry Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $176
* TSMC Rated New Buy at DA Davidson as ‘Core Part’ of AI Cycle

>>> Call
* AstraZeneca Success Comes at a Cost, Shore Capital Cuts to Hold
* Carl Zeiss PT Cut at JPMorgan on Earnings, Downside Tailwinds (+)
* Generali Gains as Citi Renews Rating With Buy on Margin Outlook (++)
* Harvia Rallies as DNB Carnegie Upgrades on Good Entry Point (++)
* JPMorgan’s Matejka Says 4Q Earnings Growth Beating Consensus (+)
* RWE Shares Fall as Bernstein Sees Less Upside After Strong Run
* Volvo Downgraded at RBC, Prefer North America Exposure