Investor risk appetite clearly showed additional signs of waning this week despite encouraging key economic readings. Perhaps it was ongoing, rolling dislocations in equity markets due to expected AI disruption, or investors’ general unwillingness to add risk to portfolios despite robust 13% earnings growth seen to date this earnings season. Even a significantly stronger than expected January jobs report, followed by a benign CPI print only garnered modest equity momentum into the long weekend. The overriding narrative remained that the welcomed economic data will still not be enough to pull the Fed off the sidelines, but it did suggest incremental improvement towards the 2% inflation target. Administration officials were quick to make the point that the strong jobs data should not preclude interest rates from going lower, and that is exactly what they did. The US 2-year yield fell to the lowest level since September 2022, and the 10-year benchmark rate moved back towards the 4% mark. The VIX jumped back above 20 with money coming out of technology stocks, Bitcoin, and precious metals and flowing into the relative safety of US Treasuries and traditionally defensive equity sectors like staples. Crude prices moved lower after Trump indicated he is still looking for a deal with Iran and suggested the timetable for talks could stretch over the next month. For the week, the S&P lost 1.4%, the DJIA was off 1.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.1%.
Corporate news trended to the negative this week, largely on concerns about technology earnings and the looming changes that AI could bring. A number of sectors were shaken up this week as investors tried to sniff out areas that AI-driven technology will overthrow established business models. Investment advisory stocks as well as players in the trucking logistics fields were both struck by sudden downturns triggered by bouts of investor uncertainty over the risk of AI disruption. It was a tough week for many technology sector names in general, exemplified by Cisco Systems, whose shares tumbled on weak gross margins despite modestly beating expectations on the top and bottom line. Shares of IBM spinout Kyndryl plunged more than 50% on an earnings miss and its announcement that its reviewing accounting practices after inquiries from the SEC. Friday saw a number of big Chinese ADRs trade lower on a report that the Pentagon had enumerated the likes of Alibaba, Baidu and Nio as collaborators with the Chinese military – only to later withdraw the document (which could only be speculated as a White House negotiating ploy ahead of the April summit in Beijing). Consumer stalwart McDonald’s was a bright spot in the earnings onslaught, beating estimates easily and noting strong same store sales and improving store traffic. Smaller rival Wendy’s also beat Q4 estimates but suffered double digit SSS declines and its guidance was cold and soggy. M&A continued to flourish in the energy space as offshore drilling contractor Transocean agreed to absorb rival Varalis in a $5.8B all-stock deal.
MON 02-09
(BD) White House: Will establish rule to allow certain textile and apparel goods from Bangladesh to receive reciprocal tariff rate of zero - statement on US-Bangladesh agreement
(CA) Reportedly House Dems may attempt to overturn Canada tariffs by forcing vote on Weds (02/11) – PunchBowl
(CA) Canada PM Carney and Ontario Premier Ford said to discuss early federal election - Canadian press
(CN) China MOFCOM meets with automakers; Will promote auto trade-in plan
(CN) CHINA URGES BANKS TO CURB US TREASURIES EXPOSURE OVER MARKET RISK; THE DIRECTIVE DOES NOT APPLY TO CHINA'S STATE HOLDINGS OF US TREASURIES - PRESS
(CN) China Pres Xi: Urge domestic technology self-sufficiency and innovation - Xinhua
(EU) EURO ZONE FEB SENTIX INVESTOR CONFIDENCE: 4.2 V 0.0E (1st positive reading since Jun 2025)
(IR) US Maritime Administration (MARAD) issues advisory to ships moving through Hormuz Strait, urging ships to stay as far away from Iran waters as possible
(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: Won 352 seats as ruling bloc; Have received strong mandate for my policies; will restart parliament session swiftly; Want to pursue coalition expansion if DPP is keen - comments from Tokyo
(JP) Japan PM Takaichi: I want to create economy that withstands FX changes; Govt constantly monitoring financial market moves
(TW) Taiwan Jan Trade Balance: $18.9B v $18.7Be
(UK) PM Starmer: We go forwad from here; Regret decision to appoint Peter Mandelson (as Amb to US); Must prove that politics can be a force for good - comments to PM's office staff
(US) Reportedly US housing affordability package is set to advance in Congress – press
(US) Reportedly White House leaning on Congressional Republicans to include ban on institutional investors purchasing single-family homes, revealing that legislators have resisted including proposed ban as an amendment - WSJ
(US) Reportedly White House seeking commitments from big tech companies to ensure data centers don't raise power prices, strain electric grids or water supply for local communities – Politico
ANTHROPIC.IPO Said to assemble team that includes some Alphabet alums and has discussed procuring at least 10GW of capacity over next several years - The Information
CLF Reports Q4 -$0.43 v -$0.62e, Rev $4.31B v $4.62Be; Notes trade environment in the United States continues to move in a very constructive direction; Targets signing a definitive agreement with POSCO in H1 2026
HIMS Novo Nordisk takes legal action against Hims & Hers to protect patients from unsafe, knock-off Wegovy and Ozempic; Asks court to permanently ban Hims from selling unapproved, compounded drugs that infringe our patents, and is seeking to recover damages
KD Reports Q3 $0.51 v $0.60e, Rev $3.86B v $3.91Be; Cuts outlook following CFO transition; Notes material weaknesses in the internal control over financial reporting
LAW Launches industry’s first scaled agentic AI tool for fact investigation and eDiscovery; Model not disclosed
MNDY Reports Q4 $1.06 v $0.91e, Rev $333.9M v $329Me; Notes monday vibe is the fastest product to surpass $1M in ARR in monday’s history
NOVOB.DK FDA pens letter claiming Wegovy Super Bowl Ad is false or misleading and is in violation of Federal Food, Drug & Cosmetic Act
OPENAI.IPO Said to approve first app on ChatGPT written by home insurance firm, enabling users to receive a personalised home insurance quote, and soon, purchase a policy, entirely within the conversation - trade press (update)
OPENAI.IPO Reportedly CEO Altman touts ChatGPT's reaccelerating, back to >10% monthly growth; Also preparing to launch new updated ChatGPT model this week; Also, OpenAI will officially begin testing ads within ChatGPT - CNBC citing internal memo
VAL To be acquired by Transocean in $5.8B all-stock deal; Transocean takes 53% of combined company that will have total pro forma combined EV of ~$17B
TUES 02-10
(CN) CHINA JAN CPI Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.4%E
(DE) GERMANY SELLS €3.811B VS. €5.0B INDICATED IN 2.50% APR 2031 BOBL; AVG YIELD: 2.40% V 2.47% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER: 1.65X V 1.41X PRIOR
(IR) US Pres Trump says he may send second carrier group to Middle East if Iran talks fail; Trump notes that this time talks are different; Expects second round of US-Iran talks to happen next week; "We can make a great deal with Iran" – Axios
(US) Atlanta Fed GDP Now: Cuts forecast for Q4 GDP from 4.2% to 3.7%
(US) DEC ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.0% V 0.4%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.0% V 0.4%E
(US) DEC IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E
(US) Q4 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 0.7% V 0.8%E
(US) Senate Maj Leader Thune: Will likely need stopgap funding for DHS to avoid shutdown; White House could make a DHS counter offer available soon - comments to media
(US) TREASURY'S $58B 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 3.518% V 3.609% PRIOR; BTC 2.62 V 2.65 PRIOR AND 2.64 OVER THE LAST 9 AUCTIONS
AZN.UK Reports Q4 Core EPS $2.12 v $2.14e, Rev $15.5B v $15.5Be
BP.UK Reports Q4 $0.10* v $0.09e, Rev $47.7B v $48.1B y/y; Suspends share buyback; guides FY26 Capex $13.0-13.5B
CVS Reports Q4 $1.09 v $0.99e, Rev $105.7B v $103.4Be; Affirms FY26 eps, cuts opr cash flow outlook
CVS TTN Summary Earnings Call: Observing significant inflationary pressure from branded drug manufacturers, who have already implemented more than 750 price increases in the first few weeks of 2026, adding an estimated $25 billion in costs to the healthcare system.
CVS Affirms FY26 Rev at least $400B v $412.1Be (prior: at least $400B), Capex $3.0-3.2B - earnings slides
DD Reports Q4 $0.46 v $0.43e, Rev $1.69B v $1.68Be
DUK Notes new data center power agreements with Microsoft, Compass, Amazon, Digital Realty and others, totaling ~4.5GW (+1.5GW since Q3 call) – slides
FISV Reports Q4 $1.99 v $1.90e, Adj Rev $4.90B v $4.95Be
HOOD Reports Q4 $0.66 v $0.63e, Rev $1.28B v $1.34Be
HOOD TTN 17:00 ET Call Summary: average daily trading volumes so far in February trending higher than January; Over 75% of customer support cases are now solved by AI; Plan to more than double Gold Card customers to over 1M by end of 2026, up from 600K at year-end 2025 and over $10Bin annualized spend.
KER.FR Reports Q4 Rev €3.91B v €3.87Be; Expects to return to growth and improve margins in 2026
MAR Reports Q4 $2.58 v $2.64e, Rev $6.69B v $6.68Be
NET TTN 17:00 ET Call Summary: AI agent activity is driving a massive volume shift, with weekly requests generated by autonomous agents more than doubling across the network in January 2026 alone; management views agents as an "ultimate infrastructure multiplier" for their security and Workers platform; Dollar-based net retention 120%, up 1 ppt q/q and 9 ppt y/y
TT To Acquire LiquidStack to Boost Data Center Cooling Solutions; Terms not disclosed
TMV.DE Reports Q4 Adj EBITDA €87.0M v €83.0M y/y, Rev €194.6M v €177M y/y
TSM Reports Jan (NT$) Rev 401.3B, +36.8% y/y, (v 335.0B m/m) v +20% prior
WED 02-11
(CN) Reportedly Trump and Xi will look to extend 'trade truce' during Trump's April visit to China; Could roll back tariffs for up to one year – SCMP
(UR) Ukraine said to have begun to plan Spring Presidential elections, alongside a referendum on any peace deal with Russia; Reportedly Zelenskiy intends to announce the plan for presidential elections and a referendum on February 24, the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion – FT
(US) BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS (BLS) FINAL BENCHMARK REVISIONS TO NONFARM PAYROLLS FOR 12 MONTHS ENDED MAR 2025: REVISES DOWN BY -862K V -825KE V -911K PRELIM
(US) CBO: 2025 Trump tax act increase 2026-35 deficits by $4.7T; Affirms 2026 deficit $1.9T; Federal debt will increase to 120% of GDP in 2036
(US) F.A.A. halts all flights at El Paso Airport for 10 days; No flights would be allowed to or from the airport for 10 days under a flight restriction order that cited unspecified “special security reasons.” – NYT
(US) Fed's Schmid (hawk; non-voter in 2026): Favor keeping rates 'somewhat restrictive'; Price shocks are transitory based on Fed's response; Not seeing evidence that current rates level is restraining the US economy - speech text
(US) JAN AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.7% V 3.7%E
(US) JAN CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +130K V +65KE
(US) JAN FEDERAL BUDGET BALANCE: -$94.6B V -$94.4BE
(US) JAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.3% V 4.4%E
(US) TREASURY'S $42B 10-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.177% V 4.074% PRIOR; BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.39 V 2.43 PRIOR AND 2.49 OVER LAST 4 AUCTIONS
(US) Pres Trump said to privately consider exiting USMCA trade agreement - press (in line with previous reporting)
1876.HK Reports Q4 EBITDA $167B v $191Be, Rev $1.07B v $1.07Be
AD.NL Reports Q4 €0.73 v €0.67e, Adj Op €899M v €918Me, Rev €23.5B v €23.4Be
AMZN Amazon Pharmacy will expand same-day delivery to 4,500 cities
CSCO Reports Q2 $1.04 v $1.02e, Rev $15.3B v $15.1Be; Gross margin misses estimates; Raises quarterly dividend 2.4% to $0.42
ENR.DE *CEO: Have not seen data center cancellations yet; Guides FY26 Capex ~€2.5B, approx 5% of revenues - post earnings comments
FNMA Reports Q4 Net $3.53B v $4.13B y/y, Rev $7.33B v $7.30B y/y
GNRC Reports Q4 $1.61 v $1.81e, Rev $1.09B v $1.17Be
HEIA.NL Reports FY25 adj Op €4.39B v €4.37Be; Rev €34.3B, -4.7% y/y; To cut up to 6,000 jobs over next 2 years (~7% of total workforce)
HLT Reports Q4 $2.08 v $2.00e, Rev $3.09B v $2.99Be; Notes it is increasingly optimistic about the tailwinds building
HUM Reports Q4 -$3.96 v -$4.01e, Rev $32.5B v $31.9Be; Guides init FY26 well below ests
HUM For 2026, the level of conservatism in our initial guidance is higher than typical to account for the dynamic environment; Remain confident in our customer-led strategy and 2026 membership outlook for individual MA; Expect new members to be enterprise accretive in 2026, on average - prepared remarks
KHC Reports Q4 $0.67 v $0.61e, Rev $6.35B v $6.42Be; Guides init FY26 below est; Pausing work on its planned separation citing priority is returning the business to profitable growth; Announces $600M investment across Marketing, Sales, and R&D as well as product superiority and select pricing.
MCD Reports Q4 $3.12 v $3.05e, Rev $7.01B v $6.85Be; SSS strong, seeing improved traffic
PAG Reports Q4 $2.85 v $3.19e, Rev $7.77B v $7.64Be; Raises quarterly dividend 1.4% to $1.40 from $1.38 (indicated yield 3.36%)
SCHW CEO: Schwab using AI-driven Wealth.com to assist with clients; AI helps financial advisors, not make them irrelevant - TV interview
TMUS Reports Q4 $1.88 v $2.03e, Rev $24.3B v $23.6Be; Guides initial FY26 adj FCF below estimates
TMUS Unveils real-time agentic AI platform; Live translation Beta begins this Spring for 50 languages in real-time on any phone, with registration now open for T-mobile postpaid members
VRT Reports Q4 $1.36 adj v $1.29e, Rev $2.88B v $2.88Be; Guides FY26 strong
THRS 02-12
(CN) REPORTEDLY TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS SHELVED A NUMBER OF KEY TECH SECURITY MEASURES AIMED AT BEIJING AHEAD OF AN APRIL MEETING BETWEEN TRUMP AND XI - PRESS
US Department of Commerce Increases Duties on Chinese Battery-Grade Graphite to 160%+ in Final Determinations; Duties will remain in effect unless revoked and will be reviewed every five years
(IR) Trump: I guess a deal with Iran could be reached over the next month; I will talk to them as long as I like; Any deal is ultimately up to me
(UK) Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.1% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.2%E
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 227K V 223KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.862M V 1.850ME
(US) JAN EXISTING HOME SALES: 3.91M V 4.15ME (slowest pace since Dec 2023)
(US) TREASURY $25B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.750% V 4.825% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.66 V 2.42 PRIOR AND 2.41 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS
(US) Reportedly top AI experts at OpenAI, Anthropic and other companies warn of rising dangers of their technology, with some quitting in protest or going public with grave concerns - Axios
9984.JP TTN 02:30 ET Call Summary: No follow-on investment in OpenAI has been decided; future investments will be governed by maintaining loan-to-value below 25% and cash to cover two years of bond redemptions ; Shifted corporate strategy to become a "platform provider" or "core pillar" for the industry, specifically targeting infrastructure and services essential for the transition from AI to Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI).
Tier1 analysts: We believe A.I. a very real threat to personal lines and small commercial commissions, particularly those profit contingent; At the current moment, the disintermediation from A.I. is still largely theoretical. Direct-to-consumer sales have only seen success in personal auto, and even homeowners' has struggled to find consumers interested. This creates a non-falsifiable narrative.
ABI.BE Reports Q4 Underlying $0.95 v $0.92e, Rev $15.6B v $15.6Be
AEP Reports Q4 $1.19 adj v $1.15e, Rev $5.31B v $5.23Be
CHKP Reports Q4 $3.40 v $2.77e, Rev $745M v $746Me; Acquires Cyata to further expand our AI security stack, enabling full discovery, governance, and control of AI agents as organizations accelerate their AI journeys; No terms disclosed
COIN Reports Q4 $0.66 v $0.61e, Rev $1.78B v $1.82Be
FDX Issues Investor Day Outlook; Adjusts FY26 Rev ex-Freight $85B, Adj Op income $5.0B, Adj Op margin 6.0%; Due to exceptional execution in delivering a successful Peak season, expects Q3 Adj EPS above consensus average
GOOGL Releases major update to Gemini 3, Deep Think, in a close partnership with scientists and researchers to tackle research challenges - blog
NVX *US Department of Commerce Increases Duties on Chinese Battery-Grade Graphite to 160%+ in Final Determinations; Duties will remain in effect unless revoked and will be reviewed every five years
SIE.DE Reports Q1 Net €2.2B v €3.17B y/y, Rev €19.1B v €19.0Be
SMR To Collaborate with Oak Ridge National Laboratory to Explore Artificial Intelligence-Guided Nuclear Fuel Management
TKA.DE Reports Q1 Net -€353M v -€51M y/y, adj EBIT €211M v €191M y/y, Rev €7.19B v €7.83B y/y
TRU Reports Q4 $1.07 v $1.03e, Rev $1.17B v $1.14Be; Rasies dividend 9%
UNA.NL Reports Q4 Rev €12.6B v €12.9Be; Announces €1.5B share buyback; Notes slower market conditions
FRI 02-13
(US) White House Navarro: No basis in fact that Pres Trump will walk back steel tariffs; Trump has a 'no exemptions, no exclusions' rule - CNBC
(US) Supreme Court confirms Feb 20th, 24th and 25th will be opinion days
(US) Senator Tillis (R-NC): No intention to move forward with any Fed nominee; Prove me wrong or resolve the investigation into Fed Chair Powell - TV interview
REPORTEDLY OPEC+ NATIONS SEE SCOPE TO RESUME PRODUCTION HIKES IN APRIL; HAS NOT YET DECIDED ON PLANS - PRESS
(US) JAN CPI M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 2.4% V 2.5%E
(CH) SWISS JAN CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 0.1% V 0.1%E
(US) Atlanta Jan Sticky-CPI (12-month annualized) 3.0% v 3.1% m/m; Core Sticky CPI (1-month annualized) 4.6% v 3.1% m/m
BABA US Pentagon confirms added Alibaba to list of firms aiding China military, as well as BYD, Baidu, Huawei, Nio, Cosco and TP-Link - press
MSFT Reportedly FTC investigation into company intensifies, with FTC interviewing rivals on cloud and AI products - press
STLA Said to resurrect at least seven diesel car and passenger van models in Europe - press cites company and dealers
AAP Reports Q4 $0.86 v $0.41e, Rev $2B v $1.95Be