>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • TBI -18%, HCA -9.1%, HXL -7.4%, AGNC -7.3% (prelim Q3 estimates), PII -6.3%, AAN -5.6%, HOUS -5.3%, BCS -5.1%, TRU -4.4%, GLW -4%, CALX -2.6%, CDNS -2.5%, SPOT -2.5%, PKG -2.1%, ABG -2.1%, CCK -2%, TFII -1.3%, NVS -0.8%
Other news:
  • IONQ -12.7% (Co-Founder stepping down)
  • IMTX -4.2% (receives FDA Regenerative Medicine Advanced Therapy (RMAT) designation for ACTengine IMA203 TCR-T monotherapy)
  • SDA -3% (stock offering)
  • SEE -1.5% (CEO stepping down; reiterates guidance; also downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair)
  • MREO -1.1% (reports on recent program developments)
Analyst comments:
  • MKFG -17.7% (downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair)
  • FMC -2.8% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA Securities; downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)
  • CUBE -1.1% ( downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo)
  • MNST -1% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 24th of October 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Airtel Africa Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 140 pence
* Alpha Services Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* Altri Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 5.10 euros
* First Quantum Minerals Raised to Buy at Paradigm Capital
* flatexDEGIRO Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 12.50 euros
* Golden Ocean Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 121.66 kroner
* Indivior Raised to Buy at Liberum; PT 2,010 pence (+)
* Ingersoll Rand Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $73
* Lundin Mining Raised to Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$12.50
* Rio Tinto Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 6,300 pence
* Scandinavian Tobacco Raised to Buy at Carnegie (+)
* Tomra Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 90 kroner
* Virbac Raised to Buy at Gilbert Dupont; PT 313 euros (+)
* Virbac Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 290 euros (+)
* Wulff-Group Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 2 euros

>>> Down
* Absolent Air Care Group Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Atoss Software PT Cut to 200 euros at Hauck & Aufhaeuser (+)
* CAB Payments Cut to Speculative Buy at Canaccord; PT 246 pence (+)
* Eezy Cut to Hold at Carnegie (+)
* Equinor Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Getinge Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 203 kronor
* Hess Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $171
* Millicom GDRs Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 175 kronor
* Navigator Co Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 3.90 euros
* Pets at Home Cut to Hold at Shore Capital (+)

>>> Initiation
* Demant Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 318 kroner (+)
* Devolver Digital Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 35 pence
* Entra Reinstated Buy at SEB Equities; PT 180 kroner
* Nokia Rated New Buy at Commerzbank
* Solaria Energia Rated New Neutral at CaixaBank BPI
* Swissquote Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 217 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Nemetschek Results Defy Slowdown Concerns, Morgan Stanley Says
* Novartis 3Q Sales Beat Helped by Kesimpta: Jefferies (+)
* Swissquote Gets New Buy at Berenberg on Attractive Valuation
* Talanx Outlook Boost Shows Improving Strength: Morgan Stanley
* Tomra Raised to Hold at Jefferies, Downside Risks Now Minimized

TechCrunch : Feds expand Tesla investigation to include vehicle range, personal

Feds expand Tesla investigation to include vehicle range, personal benefits

Tesla has the attention of the U.S. Department of Justice — again.

Tesla has received requests for information, including subpoenas from the DOJ, the automaker disclosed Monday in a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing. The DOJ issued subpoenas related to perks, the advertised range of its EVs and personnel decisions, according to the filing.

The DOJ’s inquiry into vehicle range comes several months after a Reuters investigation found that the automaker had exaggerated the range estimates for its EVs for years, prompting owners to flood its service center over concerns that their vehicles needed service. The investigation, citing anonymous sources and industry experts, found that the directive to use algorithms to give rosier range numbers came from CEO Elon Musk.

The DOJ also became interested earlier this year in personal benefits that Tesla may have provided CEO Elon Musk since 2017, including the use of company funds to build a proposed glass house. The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York has also requested information about transactions between Tesla and other entities connected to Musk, according to a report from The Wall Street Journal published in August.

The disclosure in Monday’s filing is on top of the DOJ’s investigation into Tesla’s advanced driver assistance system Autopilot and its accompanying subscription feature known as Full Self-Driving or FSD. Tesla revealed in January that the DOJ had launched an inquiry into Autopilot and FSD. It’s unclear if the DOJ investigation disclosed in January is connected to another criminal investigation by the agency launched in late 2021 following more than a dozen accidents involving the active use of Tesla’s Autopilot system.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +4.9%
    • Nemetschek Results Defy Slowdown Concerns, Morgan Stanley Says
  • Puma (PUM TH) +3.1%
    • Puma 3Q Gross Profit Margin Beats Estimates
  • Tomra (TMRA TH) +2.4%
  • BT (BTQ TH) +2.2%
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +2.2%
    • Nigeria to Tighten Rules to Curb Raw Mineral Exports (Correct)
  • Talanx (TLX TH) +1.7%
    • Talanx Outlook Boost Shows Improving Strength: Morgan Stanley
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +0.9%
  • Orange (FTE TH) +0.9%
    • Orange Confident Masmovil Deal Will be Approved by Year End
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) -0.8%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) -0.9%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1.1%
  • Norsk Hydro (NOH1 TH) -3.5%
    • Norsk Hydro 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • No major mover
MDAX:
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +4.9%
    • Nemetschek Results Defy Slowdown Concerns, Morgan Stanley Says
  • Puma (PUM TH) +3.1%
    • Puma 3Q Gross Profit Margin Beats Estimates
  • Duerr (DUE TH) -0.8%
    • Duerr Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 22 euros
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -1.3%
SDAX:
  • 1&1 (DRI TH) +2.2%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +1.7%
  • flatexDEGIRO (FTK TH) +1.4%
    • flatexDEGIRO Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 12.50 euros
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.3%
  • Adtran Holdings (QH9 TH) -2.7%

WWD : Investment Bankers on the Future of Fashion Dealmaking

Investment Bankers on the Future of Fashion Dealmaking
After a surprisingly strong run of acquisitions and IPOs, WWD asks the experts to weigh in on what comes next.

Fashion’s dealmakers awoke with a jolt this summer.

Kering inked deals with Creed and Valentino, Tapestry Inc. agreed to buy rival Capri Holdings, Kim Kardashian’s Skims raised new money ahead of a potential IPO and Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus started talking, again.

As fall arrived, Sycamore Partners continued its move to consolidate with its agreement to buy Chico’s FAS Inc., Birkenstock staged its much anticipated initial public offering and more.

It was altogether a lot of activity — especially for a time when economists were projecting recession and belt tightening.

But the economic storm clouds haven’t passed. Inflation lingers, interest rates are high and wars are raging, on top of all the usual complications of running and growing major fashion companies or even smaller designer brands.

Still, more players are said to be looking at the market — plotting IPOs next year or their own transformative transaction.

To take the measure of what comes next, WWD reached out to the investment bankers who match buyers and sellers. While their answers reflect a still-complicated market and opinions vary, the question was simple:

Will the deal market keep heating up in fashion? Why?

Ben Frost, global co-head of consumer retail group, Goldman Sachs

We are going to continue to see more deals in fashion and apparel. The benefits of scale have proven to be too great to ignore and shifting consumer impulses create opportunities for some and challenges for others.

Carmen Molinos, global co-head of consumer retail investment banking, Morgan Stanley

Despite a slow first half of the year for overall M&A activity, we have seen a recent wave of luxury consolidation and expect this trend to continue. Scale matters in luxury, and it is all the more important in times of economic uncertainty and an escalating cost environment. I expect strategics to continue to utilize M&A as a tool to bolster long-term growth by diversifying their portfolios to deepen customer engagement, enhance core competencies and expand geographic reach.

Further, even if more expensive, access to debt financing is improving and would therefore expect sidelined financial sponsors to become increasingly more active. Scarcity of actionable opportunities have maintained elevated valuations, and buyers and sellers are utilizing creative solutions to bridge value gaps. I therefore expect luxury to continue to be fertile ground for M&A activity.

Alexandra Soto, chief operating officer, Lazard

It is a real paradox. The fashion industry’s M&A environment is experiencing numerous conflicting trends, with certain factors promoting deal activity and others hindering it leading to significant polarization of interest.

Recent examples of M&A activity in the fashion industry underscore how strategic players, faced with financial challenges and shareholder pressure, have been compelled to reevaluate their brand and category portfolios, as well as their overall strategies. The consolidation trend in this sector began long ago, as large groups built portfolios of fashion and luxury brands to benefit from scale, making it increasingly difficult for independent brands to compete, both digitally and physically in-store experience.

This year, new dynamics have emerged impacting M&A valuation: The impact of inflation on margins, underperformance of some online and physical retailers prompting questions about the optimal distribution mix, softening demand in China, de-globalization of the supply chain among others. With these new challenges come new needs, and recent deal activity demonstrates that the group concept allows for greater agility in responding to a rapidly changing environment.

David Shiffman, partner and co-head of the consumer retail group, Solomon Partners

The retail sector has been oversold for way too long. Private equity has given up on the sector fearing the “Amazon effect” and the concentration of power of the top 20 retailers. Solomon Partners has written for several years about the top 20 retailers and their size, scale, fortress balance sheets, lower cost of capital and ability to attract talent — all resulting in a concentration of market capitalizations.

Strategics have been focused on organic growth as they have battled over an extended period of time. And brand management companies flourished and became the buyer of choice for many fashion brand businesses. These transactions range from tens of millions to billions of dollars.

Great businesses, with many years left to run, have been overlooked. We anticipate that there will be more branded apparel, footwear and accessory businesses that are sold or IPO’d. Luxury and branded goods businesses that command higher price points resulting in higher margins will be the most attractive.

The rapid shifts in consumer preferences as a result of social media have never been higher. And the connection between brand and customer has never been more important than where we stand today.

Elsa Berry, managing director and founder, Vendôme Global Partners

The luxury fashion industry should see more consolidation as scale has become increasingly vital and competition continues to intensify.

However, there are not that many sizable potential targets left. In addition, many small- to medium-sized companies are either struggling or not growing very fast. And many designer-owned companies may not want to lose their independence and become absorbed by a larger multibrand company.

So, the supply side is limited.

And the buy side is becoming concerned with the softening performance of the luxury industry post the pandemic-created bubble: slowdown in the U.S. and in Europe, with disappointing growth in China, and a very volatile macro-economic and political environment.

Numerous uncertainties (high interest rates, still-high inflation, wars, uncertain election outcomes, consumers’ softening demand, companies worsening performances, etc.) create a lack of visibility and a negative investment context.

More recently, the Birkenstock IPO met an unenthusiastic reception, with its share price dipping almost 13 percent in its Wall Street debut, despite stellar performance, scale and significant brand value.

Hence, I don’t feel that the fashion M&A market will be robust in the short term — putting aside distressed situations.

William Susman, managing director, Threadstone

In general, I do believe the fashion and apparel deal market is heating up. More a soft opening than a crush of deals.

The market is opening up for a couple of macro reasons. The effects of the pandemic are completely behind us. And while the retail environment is challenging, it is for different, more traditional reasons — consumer demand, rising interest rates and consumer confidence.

Good companies always can get a deal done. And that means strong brands with scale and profitability can find a buyer albeit at a price. This is not a stretch market — it is a balanced one.

The Tapestry-Capri deal and the Kering-Valentino deal are reflective of strong companies with strong brands looking to grow entering into smart financial transactions. A potential Neiman’s-Saks deal would fit into this dynamic if it materializes. These sectors — accessories and luxury — remain coveted. The consumer never has enough shoes and bags and the rich are still rich.

While the market for deals has opened, I see it being selective, not across all areas of retail. Seller expectations need to remain grounded. Buyers are valuing actual earnings, not adjusted run-rates. And leverage needs to be very limited.

WWD : On a Roll: Swiss Running Brand On Holding Has Been on Fire

On a Roll: Swiss Running Brand On Holding Has Been on Fire
The Zurich-based company was founded in 2010 and went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2021.

It all started with a garden hose.

Retired professional triathlete Olivier Bernhard wanted to create a running shoe with a totally new feel. So he cut up pieces of garden hose and glued them to a prototype shoe. He approached his friends David Allemann and Caspar Coppetti and together, they designed shoe with an explosive takeoff and a cushioned landing, or what they describe as “running on clouds.”

The shoe won the ISPO BrandNew Award in March 2010 and it was off to the races for the Zurich-based On Holding.

Since then, On has managed to carve out a niche in the highly competitive running shoe market with its Cloud franchise of footwear. The brand quickly became the top-selling running shoe in Switzerland. Then, tennis superstar Roger Federer made an investment into the company and helped it move into the tennis space.

In 2021, On Holding went public on the New York Stock Exchange, providing further financial fuel to its fiery growth.

On is now found in 9,800 points of sale in more than 60 countries, and in its first full year as a public company, posted net income of 57.7 million Swiss francs with net sales rising 68.7 percent to 1.22 billion Swiss francs, the company reported in March of this year.

As the team gathered in Times Square to celebrate the IPO, they looked up at a billboard that read: Dream On. As Martin Hoffmann, co-chief executive officer and chief financial officer, said during an investors conference at its Zurich headquarters earlier this month: “It was very clear, hey, we are no longer outsiders. People see the value that we create. They understand we are here for the long term. We have a winning team. We are not going away.”

And the company’s projections for the future are even more robust. At the investors conference, On said it intends to double its projected 2023 net sales and increase its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margin to 18 percent by 2026.

On is estimating net sales of 1.76 billion Swiss francs for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, with a gross profit margin of at least 58.5 percent and 15 percent adjusted EBITDA margin. Its projections will bring sales to at least 3.55 billion Swiss francs, reflecting a compounded annual growth rate of more than 26 percent, a gross profit margin of more than 60 percent and an adjusted EBITDA of more than 18 percent by 2026, the company projected.

It’s for these reasons that the company is being awarded the WWD Honor for Best-Performing Fashion/Retail Company, Large Cap.

While its growth may be explosive, the company has been steadfast in its mission since Day One. As it describes on its website: “At On, we don’t believe it’s the human body that determines whether you cross the finish line, reach the peak or dare to dream the big idea — it’s the human spirit. Our innovations and actions are shaped by our mission: to ignite the human spirit through movement.”

The company outlined the three pillars that will mark its future growth. First is to increase its market share in running along with its brand awareness, its performance credibility and its sustainability impact.

Marc Maurer, co-CEO, said brand awareness is highest in Switzerland, where 47 percent of respondents to a recent survey knew the brand. In the U.S., that number is 9 percent, but in cities with strong running communities, that figure is higher. In Miami, for example, On has a 15 percent market share among runners, and in New York, it’s 7 percent.

These numbers will be lifted by continuing to grow its following on social channels, he added. He said since the IPO, On’s Instagram, TikTok and other social channel followers grew by 94 percent.

At the same time, On will work to expand its international footprint by increasing its “premium multichannel distribution” and its own retail presence as well as its footprint in China.

During the investor conference, Hoffmann said On will continue to focus on expanding its own retail and e-commerce along with its wholesale presence. Since the pandemic, 20 new markets have been added and a relaunch of its website has led to a ninefold increase in members.

In terms of retail, at the time of the IPO, the company operated only one store in New York City and seven in China. By the end of this year, that number will be 30 — 22 in China and 10 in other countries, Maurer said. That will include Portland, Ore., Miami, Paris and Spitalfields in London.

Britt Olsen, general manager for the Americas and head of global commercial strategy, detailed the benefits of each channel. E-commerce, she said, is “where we can really bring the most expressive and digitally scalable version of ourselves to the world.” Brick-and-mortar retail “is a place where we really have the opportunity to build our most intimate touchpoint,” and wholesale is “where we can scale and amplify what we’re trying to achieve.”

The retail expansion will be centered around distinct operating models, she said: flagship stores on high streets with high volume; “chapter stores,” focused on building communities in a particular location, and a “commercial format,” or mall-based locations, “where we can scale a bit faster.”

Going forward, 10 percent of new stores will be flagships with the remainder split evenly between chapter and commercial units, she said.

But regardless of the format, retail stores have proven to be a key growth vehicle for On. Olsen said when the London store opened, “we saw baseline and e-comm traffic increase by three times. We also heard of a really great spillover effect in our wholesale channels in these markets.”

And apparel has been a major beneficiary. “We know that in this channel, apparel works for On,” she said. “We have some stores where there’s actually 30 percent apparel share. So when it is merchandised right, and in a very design-driven On way, we know that this has an ability to connect with consumers. And on the very human basis, it’s actually a really great testing ground for us to get feedback directly from consumers for our apparel category.”

Turning to product, Hoffmann said performance and sustainability continue to be the drivers for the company. He pointed to the Cloud Neo, the first fully circular performance running shoe, as a key innovation and there are “many more things in the pipeline.”

He also said it was important to expand On’s overall product offering in order to reach more consumers. Today, the assortment ranges from shoes for running, tennis and training to “all-day” shoes. And price ranges have also been broadened with a focus on higher prices, which “will allow us to become more profitable and further fuel the aspirational quality of being the most premium sports brand out there,” Coppetti said.

Over the past 18 months, the company has launched the Cloud Runner, Cloud Monster and Cloud Surfer, three new running shoe models, that now account for roughly half of its sales. “Now building on these successes, we will start to consolidate our technologies, all our products in running into very clear product franchise brands with a view of getting brand name recognition for these brands and enabling our fans to self-select the right products for them,” Coppetti said.

In the stores, apparel and footwear will be merchandised together for specific consumer segments, leading to a better experience, and hopefully, higher sales.

On Nov. 2, the company will introduce Cloud Eclipse, a max cushioning product, to address that end of the market. And the company will be putting more emphasis on training products that can “transition seamlessly from studio to street,” Coppetti said.

Although On has limited the number of collaborations it has offered, it has worked with Loewe on shoes and apparel, a capsule that has been highly successful.

Beyond running, the company will aim to further establish select adjacencies in tennis and other sports while beefing up its offering of “full head-to-toe looks across all its verticals,” it has said.

“We have an exciting product pipeline that includes running, training and tennis footwear and apparel,” Hoffmann said.

Coppetti said apparel will play a big role in On’s future. “For every footwear piece sold in training, there are about 10 apparel pieces. We will focus on the most premium materials as well as the Swiss engineered details and clever features to cater to new aspirational consumers.”

Maurer stressed that in footwear and apparel, On continues to view itself as “an innovation company at heart. We’re not just here to make shoes or apparel. We’re pioneering technology and products the world hasn’t really seen before or creating new sensations and removing barriers.”

He said the company works closely with its athlete partners to create quality products to meet their needs. In addition to Federer, it works with Poland’s Iga Świątek, the world’s number-one-ranked women’s tennis player, Ben Shelton, a rising American star on the court, Boston marathon winner Hellen Obiri, as well as triathletes Gustav Iden, Kristian Blummenfelt, Paula Findlay and Chelsea Sodaro. “We develop products together with them. They have become part of who we are, and I think we’ve become part of who they are. And that has really led to some amazing achievements,” Maurer said, pointing to Obiri’s marathon win as an example.

Looking to the future, On’s ambitions are lofty but its team is confident of its continued success. Maurer summed it up this way: “On aspires to be the most important premium global sportswear brand, rooted in innovation, design and sustainability. It’s very calculated. We’re very clear on what we’re doing, and we’re doing it because we want to be super successful in 10 years from now. We’re not building for 2026. We’re building far beyond that.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 24th of October 2023

>>> Up
* Airtel Africa Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 140 pence
* Alpha Services Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* Altri Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 5.10 euros
* First Quantum Minerals Raised to Buy at Paradigm Capital
* flatexDEGIRO Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 12.50 euros
* Golden Ocean Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 121.66 kroner
* Ingersoll Rand Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $73
* Lundin Mining Raised to Buy at Paradigm Capital; PT C$12.50
* Rio Tinto Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 6,300 pence
* Tomra Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 90 kroner
* Wulff-Group Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 2 euros

>>> Down
* Absolent Air Care Group Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Equinor Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Getinge Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 203 kronor
* Hess Cut to Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $171
* Millicom GDRs Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 175 kronor
* Navigator Co Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 3.90 euros

>>> Initiation
* Devolver Digital Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 35 pence
* Entra Reinstated Buy at SEB Equities; PT 180 kroner
* Nokia Rated New Buy at Commerzbank
* Solaria Energia Rated New Neutral at CaixaBank BPI
* Swissquote Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 217 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Nemetschek Results Defy Slowdown Concerns, Morgan Stanley Says
* Swissquote Gets New Buy at Berenberg on Attractive Valuation
* Talanx Outlook Boost Shows Improving Strength: Morgan Stanley
* Tomra Raised to Hold at Jefferies, Downside Risks Now Minimized

>>> What to look at today - 24th of October 2023

Chinese stocks outperformed Asian equities after the nation’s sovereign wealth fund bought exchange-traded funds to shore up the market. Treasuries stabilized following a volatile session on Monday.  Asian shares were mixed after the lowest S&P 500 close since May, with equities paring declines of more than 1% in Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong. Oil eked out a gain as the next stage of the Israel-Hamas war remained unclear.  The rebound in Chinese equities “shows that while it may still be too early to call a bottom, the authorities are making it a rule to step on the brakes whenever there looks like there’s overwhelming downward momentum,” said Raymond Chen, fund manager at Zizhou Investment Asset Management. “This does help somewhat ease the panic, assuring investors that the nation will continue offering support if it drops further.”  The CSI 300 Index was little changed, while gauges in Shanghai and Shenzhen rose.  Treasury 10-year yields were steady, as some of the market’s most prominent bears said the historic rout in US government bonds had gone too far. Yields slumped on Monday after hitting 5%, amid volatility fueled by expectations the Federal Reserve will keep rates elevated and the government will boost bond sales to cover widening deficits.  A gauge of the dollar retreated, giving a boost to emerging Asian currencies such as the Thai baht, South Korea’s won and the Malaysian ringgit. Oil edged higher in Asia trading after dropping the most since Hamas’ attack on Israel as Tel Aviv was seen holding off on an invasion of Gaza amid hostage negotiations, containing the conflict for the time being. There are growing calls inside the country to rethink the scope of a ground invasion of Gaza. China reiterated that Israel must protect civilians even as it has the right to defend itself in a conflict. In Japan, the central bank announced an unscheduled bond-purchase operation on Tuesday, underscoring its desire to curb the speed of increases in sovereign yields. The Topix benchmark dropped to the lowest since June after Nidec, a key supplier to the tech and electric vehicle industries, plunged over 10% on disappointing quarterly earnings.  Elsewhere, billionaire investor Bill Ackman wrote in a social media post that he unwound his bet against US government bonds amid rising global risks. Bill Gross, co-founder of Pacific Investment Management Co., wrote that he’s buying short-dated interest-rate futures in anticipation of a recession by year-end. US After Hours AGYS +10.2%, CR +5.6%, MEDP +5% on earnings; TBI -12.3%, HXL -7.7%, AAN -6.9% down on earnings.

Nikkei +0.36% Hang Seng -0.91% CSI -0.21% Shanghai +0.22% Shenzen +0.68%

Eur$ 1.0679 CNH 7.3093 CNY 7.3035 JPY 149.66 GBP 1.2266 CHF 0.8906 RUB 94.56 TRY 28.0852 WTI$ 85.93 Gold 1,976 +0.18% BTC 34,415 +9.15% ETH 1,823 +6.69%

S&P +0.30% Nasdaq +0.46% EuroStoxx -0.03% FTSE -0.11% Dax +0.08% SMI +0.12%

Macro :
- BITCOIN EXTENDS JUMP, HITS $35,000 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE 2022
- Bill Gross Is Buying SOFR Futures, Sees Recession By Year End
- JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Tightening to Be Felt ‘Well Into 2024’
- Citi’s Montagu Says Traders Boosted Short Positions in Equities
- JPM Asset Likes High-Yield Bonds, Neutral on Stocks: Laskowitz
- EU Utilities Have 2023 Consensus in Their Sights, 2024 Trickier
- Corn and Soy Extend Losses; Palm Oil Drops

Keep an eye on :
- AAD GY : Amadeus Fire Sees FY Operating Ebita +7% to +9%
- ADM LN : Ferrari Insurance Still Looks Cheap Even After UK Price Surge
- AJAX NA : Ajax Head Coach Leaves Club After Weekend Defeat (Oct. 23)
- ARM LN : Nvidia, Arm to develop chips based on Arm technology: report
- BORR NO : Borr Drilling Intends to Offer $1.5b Senior Notes Due 2028, 2030, Contemplates Offer of $50 Million Shares
- BRG NO : Borregaard 3Q Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- CNA LN : Worst Still to Come for Energy Debts, British Gas Boss Fears
- CVX US : Guyana Government ‘Very Supportive’ of Chevron Deal, Hess Says
- CVX US : Hess to Pay $1.72B Breakup Fee if Chevron Deal Fails
- DSV DC : DSV 3Q Adjusted Net Income Misses Estimates
- EQV1V FH : eQ 3Q Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- ERF FP : Eurofins Scientific 3Q Core Business Organic Revenue Beats Est.
- EXO NA : Juventus FC Board Approves up to €200m Proposed Capital Boost
- FDP LN : FD Technologies Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- GALE SW : Galenica Sees Net Sales Growing by 3% to 5% in Next Few Years
- RMS FP : Hermes 3Q Sales at Constant Exchange Rates Beats Estimates
- HUBN SW : Huber+Suhner 9M Orders CHF639.2M Vs. CHF757.0M Y/y
- IBE SM : Iberdrola Agrees to Sell 49% of UK Wind Farm to Masdar: Cinco
- IDIA SW : Idorsia Boosts FY Operating Loss Forecast
- INWI SS : Inwido 3Q Net Sales Beats Estimates
- ITP FP : Inter Parfums 3Q Net Sales Beats Estimates, Interparfums 3Q Sales EU214.6M Vs. EU195.3M Y/y
- JUVE IM : Juventus FC Board Approves up to €200m Proposed Capital Boost
- KEMIRA FH : Kemira 3Q Oper Ebitda Beats Estimates
- LRE SM : Lar Espana RE Socimi's MSCI ESG Rating Lowered to BB from BBB
- LOGN SW : Logitech 2Q Sales Beat, Strong Margin Welcome
- MTRS SS : Munters 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- NEM GY : Nemetschek Boosts FY Revenue Forecast
- NEM GY : Nemetschek Results Defy Slowdown Concerns, Morgan Stanley Says
- NHY NO ; Norsk Hydro 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- NUE US : Nucor Sees Weaker Q4 Earnings Due to Lower Pricing
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FT : IEA warns energy companies against banking on strong oil demand

IEA warns energy companies against banking on strong oil demand
Risks stemming from over-investment in fossil fuels have ‘evolved’, says energy watchdog

The International Energy Agency expects demand for oil to fall by almost half by 2050 if governments follow through on pledges to clean up energy supply, warning that oil and gas investments are no longer “safe or secure” for countries or consumers.

Fatih Birol, the head of the west’s energy watchdog, said the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, rising tensions in the Middle East, and record temperatures this year demonstrated the risk of continuing to rely on fossil fuels. The remarks come as the IEA publishes its annual World Energy Outlook report.

Birol was unapologetic about his longstanding call for new oil and gas investments to end, despite growing animosity from many producers in the sector, from energy executives in the US to the Opec cartel.

“Looking at the world today or tomorrow, no one can convince me that oil and gas represent safe or secure energy choices for countries and consumers worldwide,” Birol told the Financial Times.

Birol’s comments come after the second supersized oil deal this month, with Chevron agreeing to buy Hess for $53bn on Monday following ExxonMobil’s purchase of Pioneer, in a clear bet by two of the largest western oil and gas producers on the longevity of fossil fuels.

Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth criticised the IEA directly for forecasting fossil fuel demand will peak before the end of this decade, saying he did not think it was “remotely right”.

Asked about the deals, Birol said “larger-scale fossil fuel investments” not only posed a “risk for our climate but also have some business risks as the world may not need an increase of oil production”.

The IEA said in its report that risks stemming from over-investment in fossil fuels have “evolved” as governments sought to bolster energy security following the war in Ukraine, including by increasing investment in liquefied natural gas to replace Russian flows.

While “an unprecedented surge” in new LNG projects from 2025 would ease concerns about supply, the prospect of over-investment means “the fears expressed by some large resource-holders and certain oil and gas companies that the world is underinvesting in oil and gas supply are no longer based on the latest technology”.

As reported by the FT in September, the IEA’s 2023 report is its first annual outlook to project that global oil, natural gas and coal demand will all see a peak before 2030.

According to the IEA’s latest scenarios, which are based on government policies and proposals, it expects oil demand to drop to 92.5mn barrels per day by 2030 and 54.8mn b/d by 2050, if all pledges announced by governments are met. Oil demand rose above 100mn b/d for the first time in 2019.

But the IEA’s scenarios also paint a more troubling picture for the environment if governments fail to follow through on pledges and stick with existing policies, showing oil demand would barely fall by 2050, declining to just 97.4mn b/d.

Opec earlier this month forecast oil demand would rise to 116mn b/d by 2045, in a sign of the stark divergence between producers and the IEA.

If all government pledges are met, the IEA believes “unabated” fossil fuels’ share of global energy supply in 2050 will amount to just 32 per cent, compared with 80 per cent in 2022.

Renewables, biomass, nuclear, and coal and gas generation where carbon emissions are captured and stored would make up 66 per cent of global energy generation.

The body hailed progress and investment in clean energy that have put renewables on course to power this transition. However, government policies needed to become far more ambitious to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the critical threshold of the 2015 Paris agreement.

Global emissions are still set to remain high enough to push up global average temperatures by about 2.4 degrees Celsius this century, the IEA said, leading to “very widespread and severe impacts from climate change”.

The prospect of exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius target would make the upcoming COP28 climate conference in the UAE “maybe as important” as the 2015 meeting where the target was agreed, Birol said.

Under the IEA’s most ambitious “net zero” scenario, which could allow the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit to be maintained, unabated fossil fuels would make up only 12 per cent of global energy demand by 2050.

Referencing wars involving Ukraine and Israel, he said: “The biggest challenge is fragmentation.”