>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Embracer (TH9 TH) +7.2%
    • Embracer 2Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Siemens (SIE TH) +3.5%
    • Siemens Sees Revenue Growth Slowing on Subdued China Economy
  • AMS-Osram (DQW1 TH) +2.9%
  • Vodafone (VODI TH) +2.3%
  • Aegon Ltd (J060 TH) +2.1%
    • Aegon Ltd 3Q Adj. Oper Capital Generation EU354M Vs. EU306M Y/y
  • Wacker Chemie (WCH TH) +1.7%
    • Challenges in Europe Chemicals to Drive Consolidation: Jefferies
  • CTS Eventim (EVD TH) +0.6%
    • CTS Eventim Sees FY Revenue Significantly Higher Than EU2B
  • TotalEnergies (TOTB TH) -1%
    • Brent Fair Value Slumps Below $80 as War Risk Fades, for Now
  • Veolia (VVD TH) -1.2%
    • VVD Projected as Largest in I&O Dutch Election Poll (Nov. 15)
  • BASF (BAS TH) -1.3%
    • Challenges in Europe Chemicals to Drive Consolidation: Jefferies
  • Worldline (WO6 TH) -1.4%
  • Orsted (D2G TH) -1.5%
    • Orsted Hires Boston Consulting to Help in Crisis, Borsen Says
  • Shell (R6C0 TH) -1.5%
  • Tomra (TMRA TH) -1.7%
    • Tomra Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 100 kroner
  • K+S (SDF TH) -2.2%
    • Challenges in Europe Chemicals to Drive Consolidation: Jefferies
  • Prosus (1TY TH) -2.5%
    • Tencent Erases Gain as Revenue of Greater Concern: Street Wrap
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -11%
    • HelloFresh Surprises Investors With Profit Warning: Street Wrap

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Siemens (SIE TH) +3.5%
    • Siemens Sees Revenue Growth Slowing on Subdued China Economy
  • BASF (BAS TH) -1.3%
    • Challenges in Europe Chemicals to Drive Consolidation: Jefferies
MDAX:
  • K+S (SDF TH) -1.7%
    • Challenges in Europe Chemicals to Drive Consolidation: Jefferies
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -11%
    • HelloFresh Surprises Investors With Profit Warning: Street Wrap
SDAX:
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) +4.1%
    • MorphoSys 3Q Monjuvi US Net Product Sales Beats Estimates
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +2.5%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16th of November 2023

>>> Up
* EasyJet Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 670 pence
* Rana Gruber Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 85 kroner
* Reply Raised to Buy at Quirin Privatbank AG; PT 117 euros
* SSE Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 2,215 pence
* Voestalpine Raised to Accumulate at Erste Group; PT 30.50 euros
* Zalando Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 30 euros

>>> Down
* Akzo Nobel Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 72 euros
* BASF Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 39 euros
* Better Collective Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 295 kronor
* Bonava Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Clariane SE Cut to Sell at AlphaValue/Baader
* Entain Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 1,000 pence
* K+S Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 15 euros
* Orsted Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 340 kroner
* Remedy Entertainment Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 29 euros
* Tomra Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 100 kroner
* Wizz Air Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 2,400 pence

>>> Initiation
* *AHOLD, CARREFOUR & SAINSBURY INITIATED NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
* Genel Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT 95 pence
* Lem Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 2,380 Swiss francs
* Nemetschek Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* NIOX GROUP PLC Rated New Hold at Liberum; PT 62 pence
* Palantir Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil
* Sectra Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 180 kronor
* TESCO NEW BUY AT GOLDMAN, PT 350P
* Wacker Chemie Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 146 euros

>>> Call
* *AHOLD, CARREFOUR & SAINSBURY INITIATED NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
* EasyJet Raised, Wizz Air Cut at Morgan Stanley; Ryanair Top Pick
* Challenges in Europe Chemicals to Drive Consolidation: Jefferies

>>> What to look at today - 16th of November 2023

Asian shares halted a three-day rally, while the dollar strengthened amid concern this week’s gains on weak US inflation print are overdone. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.4% with Chinese shares in Hong Kong leading the decline after home prices fell at the fastest clip since 2015, underscoring the hurdles for the world’s second-largest economy to emerge out of its economic rut. US futures dropped, effectively erasing the 0.2% gain in the S&P 500 on Wednesday. The rally in Treasuries this week following a soft inflation print in the US has raised doubts if the market is jumping the gun on a dovish Fed. The bond market is at risk of leaning too heavily toward rate cuts next year as “the inflation problem is far from being solved,” said Daniel Ivascyn, chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co.  Treasuries rose slightly in Asia after a selloff Wednesday where the 10-year rate rose eight basis points to above 4.5%. The greenback pulled back slightly from it’s days high and was trading 0.1% higher.  Traders also assessed the impact of US President Joe Biden’s remark of Xi being a dictator, which may cast a shadow over the progress made by both sides at at the summit in San Francisco Wednesday. There’s “not much so far” from the talks between the two leaders, but “the tone from both sides seems conciliatory and that is good,” said Redmond Wong, a market strategist at Saxo Capital Markets in Hong Kong. Elsewhere in Asia, Australian dollar fell against most Group-of-10 currencies as traders focused on the nation’s rising jobless rate even as employment numbers improved in October. The value of imports in Japan gained 1.6% from a year earlier in October, outpacing estimates of a 1% increase.  Oil extended declines after a government report showed swelling US crude inventories. Gold was steady and Bitcoin traded above $37,500. Gold edged higher. US After Hours CSCO -11.1% and PANW -5.3% lower on earnings; MMS +5.5%, CPA +4.7% higher on earnings.

Nikkei -0.28% Hang Seng -1.21% CSI -0.92% Shanghai -0.66% Shenzen -0.95%

Eur$ 1.0838 CNH 7.2626 CNY 7.2585 JPY 151.36 GBP 1.2397 CHF 0.8885 RUB 89.5096 TRY 28.6881 WTI$ 76.18 -0.63% Gold 1,964+0.20% BTC 37,492 -0.42% ETH 2,057 +0.49%

S&P -0.05% Nasdaq -0.15% EuroStoxx -0.19% FTSE -0.03% Dax -0.01% SMI +0.17%

Macro :
- Xi Says China Seeks to Be Friends With US, Won’t Fight ‘Hot War’
- German Ruling Puts €770 Billion of Government Funding at Risk
- Elon Musk Calls Antisemitic Post on X the ‘Actual Truth’

Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB Inbev Announces Pricing for $3B Debt Tender
- ACS SM : ACS will invest 100 million in its first data center in Spain
- ADP FP : ADP Oct. Paris Airport Passengers +8.3%
- AGN NA : Aegon Ltd 3Q Adj. Oper Capital Generation EU354M Vs. EU306M Y/y
- ALLFG NA : Allfunds Jumps, Said to Gauge PE Takeover Interest: Street Wrap
- ANIM IM : Italy’s Anima Tables Offer for Asset Manager Kairos: Corriere
- BALN SW : Baloise 9M Business Volume CHF6.94B
- BAVA DC : Bavarian Nordic 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- BORR NO : Borr Drilling 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
- BRBY LN : Burberry 1H Adjusted Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- BWO NO : BW Offshore 3Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- CARLB DC : Russia Detains Two Over Carlsberg’s Brand Acquisitions: Fontanka
- EVD GY : CTS Eventim Sees FY Revenue Significantly Higher Than EU2B
- CSCO US : CISCO SINKS 16% AFTER CUTTING FULL-YEAR REVENUE FORECAST
- ECONB BB : Econocom Cuts 2028 Revenue Target to €4B From €5B
- EFGN SW : EFG Int’L Net Profit Exceeds CHF240M in First 10 Months of 2023
- EQS GY : Thoma Bravo Is Said to Near Deal for Comms Specialist EQS
- FME GY : Fresenius Medical Care Recalls Sanxin Syringes for Leakages
- GLEN LN : Galan Secures Glencore Pact for Offtake at HMW Lithium Project
- HFG GY : HelloFresh Narrows FY Sales at Constant Exchange Rates Forecast, Surprises Investors With Profit Warning
- IBAB BB : IBA Sees 2H Rebit Positive, Reiterates Mid-Term Guidance
- IDEX NO : IDEX Biometrics Offering of 78.7m Shares Prices at NOK0.45/Share
- JOMA SS : Swedish Landlord John Mattson Seeks SEK1.25B from Rights Issue
- MOR GY : MorphoSys 3Q Monjuvi US Net Product Sales Beats Estimates
- NLFSK DC : Nilfisk 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates, Nilfisk Sees FY Organic Revenue 0%, Saw -2% to +2%
- NSKOG NO : Norske Skog Sees Growth From Investment Projects Next 3 Years
- ORSTED DC : Orsted Hires Boston Consulting to Help in Crisis, Borsen Says
- PANW US : PALO ALTO DROPS 11% AFTER BILLINGS FORECAST LAGS ESTIMATE
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto Sacks Former Aluminum Head Over Information Breach
- SAN FP : SANOFI SAID TO WORK WITH ROTHSCHILD ON OTC SPINOFF PREPARATIONS
- SIE GY : Siemens Sees 2024 Comparable Revenue +4% to +8%, Est. +4.53%
- SON PL : Sonae 9M Net Income EU135M Vs. EU210M Y/y
- SONO US : Sonos 4Q Adjusted Loss per Share 7.0C, Est. Loss/Shr 7.8C, SONOS SHARES FALL 7.5% POSTMARKET AFTER RESULTS
- SOI FP : SOITEC Cuts FY Ebitda Margin Forecast, Soitec’s Outlook Lowered on Inventory Correction
- STR AV : Strabag Boosts FY Output Volume Forecast
- UN01 GY : Nordic Nuclear Output at 100% With 11 Units Online
- VK FP : Vallourec SACA Boosts FY Ebitda Forecast, Beats Estimates

FT : Hedge fund Millennium prepares for life after founder Izzy Englander

Hedge fund Millennium prepares for life after founder Izzy Englander
The 75-year-old owner has no intention of retiring but has emphasised the firm’s transition to shared leadership


A year ago Bobby Jain, a top executive at Millennium Management who was regarded by many at the hedge fund as a potential successor to Izzy Englander, abruptly departed. 

It had become clear to him that the firm’s 75-year-old founder was not going anywhere. Englander had also grown uncomfortable with the idea of one person replacing him, according to people familiar with the situation.

Since launching in 1989 with just $35mn, New York-based Millennium has grown into one of the world’s largest hedge funds, managing $60bn in assets, employing 5,400 people in 17 offices worldwide and notching up average returns of about 14 per cent a year.

Employee capital accounts for almost $10bn of Millennium’s assets, aligning staff with investors, but where other hedge funds have distributed equity among crucial people, Englander still owns 100 per cent of the firm.

Such concentration is “not a good idea”, said one person who works closely with Millennium. “But you still have to convince Izzy of that.”

Where the firm goes from here, and whether it can continue to thrive without its founder, are questions playing out in different ways across the $4tn global hedge fund industry. 

The swashbuckling figures who have dominated the sector for decades transformed what were essentially proprietary trading shops managing money for wealthy individuals into Wall Street behemoths that count some of the world’s largest institutions as their clients. Their ascent illustrates how post-crisis regulation designed to make banks safer has shifted their risk-taking to less regulated parts of the financial system.

“Unlike the private equity industry, where some of the giants have moved to a younger generation of leadership, several of the world’s largest hedge funds are still grappling with how to evolve from their dominant founders,” said Thomas Raber, founder of alternative advisory and placement firm Alvine Capital.

They include Millennium, Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater and quantitative specialist Two Sigma, according to investors.

Englander declined to comment. While he tells people he never plans to retire, he has also emphasised Millennium’s transition into a firm with shared leadership.

“Whereas once upon a time Millennium was small enough for me to carry out the required supervision of our activities alone, we now employ a multi-layered and specialised approach to oversight,” he wrote to investors in a February letter seen by the Financial Times, adding that the moves were aimed at ​positioning the firm “to flourish long into the future”. 

Englander has established a trustee advisory board, which includes Rockefeller Capital Management chief executive Greg Fleming; secured Millennium’s capital base by moving the vast majority of investors into a long-term share class; and built out its leadership team — notably by aggressively hiring Goldman Sachs alumni. 

Millennium has expanded its footprint on Wall Street by investing money with dozens of smaller funds through separately managed accounts. The Financial Times revealed last month it was in talks to put billions of dollars to work with its smaller rival Schonfeld Strategic Advisors. But the two firms called off partnership talks on Tuesday, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Englander’s age gives Millennium’s succession strategy added urgency. So do signs that higher interest rates and a costly war for talent may be taking their toll on the multi-manager business model after years of exceptional returns. Millennium is up 8.3 per cent in the first 10 months of the year, according to investors.

In Englander’s absence control would pass to the trustee advisory board, which would appoint new leadership, according to people familiar with the situation.

“We’ve seen different senior people coming and going . . . We would like to see more clarity on succession,” said one investor. 

The issue has taken on a heightened importance for clients, whose money is tied up in the firm for years. The removal of a so-called key man clause, which Millennium presents as a commitment to ensuring the stability of the business, means investors have no special option to redeem if something happens to Englander.


Millennium’s “growth in recent years means it can now dictate adverse terms in a way that is deeply uncomfortable”, said the investor, who was “especially concerned about liquidity terms being extended”. 

Englander started out as a specialist clerk on the floor of the American Stock Exchange in the 1970s before becoming a market maker then founding Millennium, initially trading derivatives and options as well as merger arbitrage. 

Millennium was forced to sharpen up risk oversight after it agreed in 2005 to pay $180mn to settle insider trading allegations brought by then-New York attorney-general Eliot Spitzer. Neither Millennium nor Englander admitted to any wrongdoing. 

Then came the financial crisis. Millennium suffered a 3 per cent loss in 2008, its only down year, but investors yanked their cash and assets halved to $7bn.

The firm decided to strengthen its asset base by rebuilding the business with long-term investors, led by John Novogratz, Millennium’s global head of capital development and investor relations. Half of its assets are now from institutional clients such as Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and large pension funds, just over a third comes from the private banking arms of large lenders including JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, while 16 per cent is money from Englander and employees. 

In 2008 Englander hired Michael Gelband from Lehman Brothers to build out the firm’s fixed-income trading business, which grew into one of Millennium’s main profit engines. 

That set Gelband up as heir apparent in the eyes of some outsiders but he left in 2017 following a dispute with Englander, according to several people familiar with his departure.

The acrimonious exit prompted him to name his new fund ExodusPoint Capital in a nod to the Book of Exodus which details the origin story of the Israelites leaving slavery in Egypt, two people familiar with the firm said. Gelband declined to comment.

As Millennium grew it continued to institutionalise, hiring Jain in 2016 as Englander’s first co-chief investment officer. After a stellar 2020 when the fund gained 26 per cent, Englander hired three former Goldman partners — Paul Russo, Scott Rofey and Jeffrey Verschleiser — to lead the risk management of the firm’s respective equity, macro and rates, and credit divisions.

Jain was then seen by many insiders and investors as Englander’s likely successor — a misperception according to one person close to Millennium, who said: “Bobby and Mike were never successors to Izzy.” 

Millennium had grown into a much larger and more diversified organisation, and Englander was reluctant to identify just one person to lead the business. 

Jain, who declined to comment, left in November 2022 and plans to launch his own hedge fund Jain Global in what could surpass ExodusPoint as the industry’s largest ever launch.

His departure coincided with a reshuffle of Millennium’s top ranks and a new organisational structure that divided responsibilities.

Millennium’s chief operating officer Ajay Nagpal took on the additional role of president. The firm announced a new “office of the chief investment officer”, hiring Justin Gmelich, another former Goldman partner, as co-CIO alongside the promoted Russo and the two heads of risk management, Rofey and Verschleiser.


“Izzy, whether knowingly or unknowingly, has turned Millennium into Goldman Sachs Asset Management,” said one person who knows him well.

Tapping Goldman executives suits Englander because “Izzy likes the concept of committee, and there are two things he likes in particular about former Goldman people,” said one insider. “They tend to respect hierarchies, and they are used to co-heads and committees.”

Millennium, with more than 300 investment teams, increasingly resembles the markets division of a global bank, which some sceptics say has resulted in more bureaucracy. 

“By publicly naming a successor you’re just setting yourself up for future problems,” said another insider.

Millennium’s top ranks are a “giant mishmash”, said the first insider. “But don’t bet against Izzy — if it’s not working, he’ll fix it.” 

Millennium has also strengthened its capital base, shifting the balance of power away from investors.

Two years ago the firm returned $15bn to investors and encouraged clients to shift to a new share class, increasing the time it takes to exit in full from one year to five and rejigging its capital base in an unprecedented way in the hedge fund industry. 

This was designed to avoid a repeat of 2008, when investors pulled their cash at short notice. Millennium has said that a stable business is a draw for talent and supports investments in technology and infrastructure. A person close to the firm added that “there is no need to add complication by diluting the ownership, unless for a key strategic opportunity”.

But the first insider disagreed, saying “not having equity partners is a bull market trade. When things go wrong people can just walk out the door because they’re not tied to the organisation”.

From July this year, clients agreed to always pay a minimum fee on top of the cost pass-through and regardless of performance. Investors will now pay annual fees of about 1 per cent of assets or 20 per cent of investment gains. 

Bankers say this amounts to a management fee, which the market values more highly than more volatile performance fees. This makes it easier to put a valuation on the hedge fund manager, which could pave the way for a sale of a minority stake in the business. A logical buyer could be an alternatives group or a sovereign wealth fund.

Those who know Englander well are not discounting another sleight of hand.

“Izzy will do something quite unexpected,” said one rival hedge fund manager. “Where he’s brilliant is he always knows the moment.”

FT : Millennium wrestles with the big succession question

Millennium wrestles with the big succession question
There’s one question that has long plagued the hedge fund industry — that of succession. 

Many of the world’s largest hedge funds, which today control about $4tn in assets, are grappling with what life looks like after their founders move on.

Among them is Millennium Management, the $60bn-in-assets firm founded by Izzy Englander in 1989, which today is one of the most successful hedge funds in the world.

For a long time it was thought Englander would pick a single successor to take over Millennium. Bobby Jain, who was hired in 2016 as Englander’s first co-chief investment officer, was regarded by many, internally and externally, as the frontrunner (though an insider disputed this).

But Jain’s departure last year indicated Englander had soured on the idea of having a single successor. Instead, he reshuffled Millennium’s top ranks and put in place a new organisational structure that divided responsibilities.

The people hired to execute his vision have largely been Goldman Sachs alumni — including Paul Russo, Scott Rofey and Jeffrey Verschleiser who came on board in 2021. A year later, Justin Gmelich, another former Goldman partner, joined as co-CIO alongside the promoted Russo.

“Izzy, whether knowingly or unknowingly, has turned Millennium into Goldman Sachs Asset Management,” one person who knows him well told the FT’s Harriet Agnew and DD’s Ortenca Aliaj.

From left, Greg Fleming, Izzy Englander and Bobby Jain © FT montage/Bloomberg/Patrick McMullan/ Getty Images
Indeed, Millennium, which has about 300 trading teams, has come to more closely resemble the markets division of a global bank. As Englander put it to investors in a February letter seen by the FT, Millennium has become too big for him to “carry out the required supervision” on his own.

One reason Englander has relied on former Goldman executives is that “they tend to respect hierarchies, and they are used to co-heads and committees”, a second insider said.

Though Englander often tells people he has no intention of retiring, how the succession planning plays out at the firm is of particular importance to investors.

The 75-year-old has done a good job shoring up Millennium’s position. He has moved the vast majority of investors to a long-term share class where it would take five years to fully withdraw money from the firm. Under the new terms there is no so-called key man clause, which means investors have no special option to redeem should something happen to Englander.

At the same time, clients have agreed to pay a minimum fee — effectively a management fee that provides the business with more stable revenues — on top of the cost pass-through structure, where they absorb the charges for everything from bonuses to entertainment.

As one person close to the firm put it, Englander has put everything in place. All the Goldmanites need to do is “keep the oil tanker cruising”.