>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of December 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Entain Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1,215 pence
* Paragon Raised to Market Perform at KBW; PT 660 pence
* Porsche SE Raised to Buy at AlphaValue/Baader (+)
* Rexel PT Raised to 33 euros from 27 euros at Berenberg
* Sectra Raised to Hold at Carnegie
* Sunnova Energy Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $17

>>> Down
* Alpha Mos Cut to Neutral at Euroland Corporate; PT 1.20 euros (+)
* ARM Holdings PLC ADRs Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $70
* Getlink Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Lagercrantz Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 124 kronor
* Lamor Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 2.70 euros
* Landi Renzo Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (+)
* Nokia Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 3.10 euros
* Nokia ADRs Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $3.40
* Nordnet Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 170 kronor
* Panostaja Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 50 euro cents
* Roku Cut to Sell at Seaport Global Securities; PT $75
* SolarEdge Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $77
* SunPower Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT $4

>>> Initiation
* ABL Group ASA Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 17 kroner (+)
* Datrix Rated New Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 2.40 euros (+)
* Kid ASA Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 132 kroner (+)
* Presto Automation Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 62 cents
* Windward Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 123 pence

>>> Call
* Goldman’s Kostin Hikes S&P 500 Target for 2024 Amid Dovish Fed
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Positive Stock Signals on Fed Pivot
* Centrica Cut at Jefferies With Normalized Earnings Year Ahead
* Entain Raised to Buy at Jefferies on Valuation, M&A Outlook
* Fresnillo Cost Pressures See Morgan Stanley Cut to Underweight
* Nordnet Downgraded by Barclays; Citi Sees Risk to Estimates (1)
* Novo Nordisk Is Intron’s 2024 Pharma Pick, Sanofi Raised to Buy

FT : European buyout firms increase salaries despite downturn

European buyout firms increase salaries despite downturn
Private equity groups operating in Europe paid staff more even as industry faced grim conditions

European private equity firms increased pay for staff this year, underlining the resilience of the industry’s lucrative business model in the face of the toughest market conditions in more than a decade.

Salaries rose by at least 6 per cent across the ranks of employees, according to an annual survey by headhunter Heidrick & Struggles.

Associates, the most junior level of employee surveyed, had the biggest pay bump, with salaries rising 12 per cent on average to €109,000 from a year ago, as the battle for younger staff intensified. Base pay for partners climbed from €307,000 to more than €325,000.

Buyout firms operating in Europe handed out bigger rewards even as higher interest rates ended the industry’s boom. A slump in dealmaking and a lacklustre market for initial public offerings has left buyout groups facing the worst year in a decade for selling their portfolio companies.

In the first nine months of the year, buyout groups generated $584bn from selling their investments, according to the latest data from PitchBook, over $100bn less than in the same period in 2022.

Many of the industry’s biggest names including Blackstone, Apollo Global Management and Carlyle Group have all had to cut targets for their flagship buyout funds this year.

However, the increase in salaries underscores how financially rewarding the industry’s business model can be given firms lock up investors’ cash for at least a decade and earn money from management fees even if performance is mediocre. Private equity executives typically get paid be 1-2 per cent of the assets they manage as well as 20 per cent of the profits from successful deals.

“PE compensation is predominantly derived from the P&L of the firm — which is based on the management fee of the fund, and this is locked in for the life of the fund,” said Tom Thackeray, a partner at Heidrick & Struggles, which surveyed 212 European private equity professionals. 

“If a firm continues to deploy capital, all things being equal, compensation levels will be maintained,” said Thackeray.

The most senior dealmakers at the biggest buyout groups — those managing individual funds of more than €10bn — are predicted to eventually earn significant sums through carried interest, or the slice of profits they take from successful deals. 

The report estimates that executives at such firms are sitting on more than €32mn of carried interest from all the funds they manage, assuming the funds ultimately generate returns that are typical for the industry. 

However, this number may fall if their portfolio companies perform poorly or the buyout groups struggle to sell them.

Carried interest is an important part of remuneration for buyout executives, frequently dwarfing the size of their salaries if they strike successful deals.

Although private equity executives are among the best paid in finance, women in senior roles earn considerably less than their male counterparts. 

In 2023, women who held a managing partner or partner role, earned €377,000 in salary and bonus combined, according to the report. Men in the same position made almost double this, taking home €631,000.

At a more junior level, women earned more than their male counterparts for the second consecutive year.

The percentage of women in senior investment roles at firms with more than £100mn in assets under management stands at just 11 per cent, according to a June report published by Level20 and industry group the British Private Equity and Venture Capital Association.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • OCI (OIC TH) +4.4%
    • OCI Said to Sell Iowa Unit to Koch Industries for $3.6 Billion
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +2.6%
  • Entain (6GI TH) +1.7%
    • Entain Raised to Buy at Jefferies on Valuation, M&A Outlook
  • Anglo American (NGLB TH) +1.5%
  • Vodafone (VODI TH) +1.2%
    • Iliad Seeks Vodafone Italy JV Proposal by End-Jan.: Reuters
  • Tomra (TMRA TH) +1%
  • Deutsche Boerse (DB1 TH) +1%
  • Equinor (DNQ TH) +1%
  • Investor AB (IVSD TH) -1.5%
  • Telenor (TEQ TH) -1.6%
    • Telenor Advancing on Its Structural Vision, Has More Catalysts: Bloomberg Intelligence
  • Volvo Car (8JO TH) -1.7%
  • Atlas Copco (ACO4 TH) -1.7%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -2%
  • UMG (0VD TH) -2%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) -2%
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) -2%
    • Nokia Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 3.10 euros
  • Aker BP (ARC TH) -3%
    • Aker BP Forecasts FY Results
  • EQT (6EQ TH) -4.3%

>>> What to look at today - 18th of December 2023

Asian stocks fell the most in about two weeks after Federal Reserve officials pushed back against bets of aggressive interest rate cuts next year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost as much as 1.1%, the biggest drop since Dec. 5, led by a near 1% drop in Hong Kong. US futures edged higher after the S&P 500 ended a six-day rally. The dollar was steady while two-year Treasury yields reversed gains made on Friday, when New York Fed President John Williams led a chorus of officials in saying it’s too early to begin thinking about lowering borrowing costs. The pushback may start to scupper the ‘everything rally’ after traders took previous Fed signals as a green light to ratchet up bets on rate cuts next year, helping US and Asian shares to their biggest weekly gains in a month. Swaps traders trimmed bets on cuts in 2024 to just under five from six before the latest Fed rhetoric, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. Central bankers from the US to Europe and Canada have already begun their battle with traders. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who votes on monetary policy next year, told Reuters that he expects two rate cuts in 2024 but not starting until the third quarter. Separately, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Sunday it’s an overstatement to consider rate cuts until officials are convinced inflation is on a path lower to its target. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem shared similar sentiment.  In Europe, European Central Bank Governing Council Joachim Nagel said Friday it’s too early to be considering rate cuts, while fellow member Madis Muller said that markets are getting ahead of themselves in betting on policy easing in the first half of next year. ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank had not discussed rate cuts at all. Attention will soon shift to Japan with the nation’s central bank beginning a two-day policy meeting Monday. While speculation has grown the Bank of Japan will soon end the world’s last negative-rate regime, economists see April as the most likely timing for a change, with around 15% expecting Ueda to pull the plug on negative rates in January, according to a Bloomberg survey of more than 50 economists.  Elsewhere this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia will release its minutes from the December policy meeting while Bank Indonesia will make its final policy decision of the year. Traders will also be keeping a close eye on developments in the Middle East as Israel pushes back against calls for a ceasefire in Gaza. Chile rejected the second proposal for a new constitution in as many years at the weekend, highlighting the failure of the nation’s political system to channel social demands into a new set of basic laws. The result, broadly in line with recent polls, means that the current charter dating from the Augusto Pinochet dictatorship will remain in place. In commodities, gold edged higher while oil rose, extending last week’s rise as major shipping lines suspended transit through the Red Sea, following escalating attacks on merchant ships. 

Nikkei -0.64% Hang Seng -1.18% CSI -0.36% Shanghai -0.40% Shenzen -1.25%

Eur$ 1.0915 CNH 7.1350 CNY 7.1309 JPY 142.27 GBP 1.2690 CHF 0.8697 RUB 90.3069 TRY 29.0612 WTI$ 72.17 +1.04% Gold 2,023 +0.16% BTC 41,1187 -1.66% ETH 2,179 -2.60%

S&P +0.23% Nasdaq +0.12% EuroStoxx -0.28% FTSE -0.22% Dax -0.27% SMI -0.38%

Macro :
- Gundlach’s 3% US Yield Call Aided by Recession Study
- EU AI Rules May Be Watered Down Further for ChatGPT and Peers
- Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Positive Stock Signals on Fed Pivot
- Goldman’s Kostin Hikes S&P 500 Target for 2024 Amid Dovish Fed
- Shipping Giants Pause Red Sea Route as Houthi Attacks Intensify
- Barrons Stoscks for 2024 : Alphabet, Alibaba, Berkshire Hathaway U-Haul, Madison Squre Garden
- JPMorgan, Goldman Sound Alarm on Climate Deals Upended by Basel
- UK FCA Rules Out Extension of Post-Brexit Licensing Regime: FT
- US Shale’s Surprise Oil-Production Surge Poses Threat to OPEC

Keep an eye on :
- ABDN LN : Abrdn Cuts Staff Benefits in Fresh Round of Cost Reductions: FT
- AKERBP NO : Aker BP Now Sees FY Output at Lower End of Guidance
- ALO FP : Alstom Completes Syndication of €2.25B Revolving Credit Line
- ALO FP : Electra: TMT Signs Financing Agreements for Light Rail Project
- AAL LN : Anglo Plans Mid-2024 Maintenance at Chile Copper Plant, DF Says
- ASCL LN : Ascential Shares Jump After Betaville ‘Uncooked Alert’
- 7936 JP : Asics to Sell Haglofs for Over ¥10b to LionRock Capital: Nikkei
- BMY US : Bristol Myers Squibb Discontinues Phase 3 Oncology Study
- AFX GY : Carl Zeiss Meditec Agrees to Buy D.O.R.C. From Eurazeo
- CEC GY : Ceconomy FY Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- CLARI FP : Clariane, Crédit Agricole Sign €140M Real Estate Partnership
- ACA FP : Clariane, Crédit Agricole Sign €140M Real Estate Partnership
- CRH US : CRH Offers to Buy Australia-Listed Adbri in $1.4 Billion Deal
- EMBRACB SS : Embracer Extends SEK17b of Loan, Credit Facilities to 2025
- ENI IM : Eni Exploring Novamont Stake Sale, Could Value Unit at €1b: Rtrs
- FER SM : Ferrovial Plans to Sell Stakes in Three UK Airports: Expansion
- GSK LN : GSK on hunt for drug deals in China
- HLAG GY : Hapag-Lloyd Pauses Red Sea Shipping Until at Least Monday
- BOWL LN :
- ILMN US : Illumina Deal Sent Back to FTC for Review by Appeals Court (1)
- IPH FP : Innate Pharma CEO Mondher Mahjoubi Resigns Effective January
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Returns to Tel Aviv With Flights From Early January
- MC FP : Luxury’s Year of Changing Fortunes Set for Reverse Act in 2024
- MSS US : Hindenburg Research Says It’s Short Grocer Maison Solutions (1)
- MSFT US : Activision Blizzard to Pay Around $50 Million to Settle Lawsuit That Spurred Microsoft's Takeover -- WSJ
- NG/ LN : National Grid Drops China-Backed UK Power Network Supplier: FT
- NOBI SS : Nobia CEO Jon Sintorn Leaves to Become CEO of Nilfisk
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk’s Obesity-Fueled Gains Seen Tough to Repeat in 2024
- NOVOB DC : IndiaMart Working With Novo to Halt Illegal Wegovy Sale: Reuters
- OCI NA : OCI Confirms Sale of Iowa Unit to Koch Industries for $3.6B
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen Bank Removed From Ukraine List of War Sponsors: ORF
- S92 GY : Germany Looking to Support Solar Companies, Habeck Tells RND
- SKAB SS : Skanska Constructs New Buildings for College in US for $155m
- SOW GY : Silver Lake Makes Delisting Offer to Software AG at €32/Share
- SOW GY : IBM to Buy Streamsets and Webmethods Platforms From Software AG
- SON PL : Sonae Says Finnish Regulator Approves Tender Offer for Musti
- IIG IM : Lapo Elkann’s Firm to Ask Investors to Decide on Liquidation
- TIT IM : Vivendi Starts Legal Action Against Tel Italia Network Sale
- THO FP : Tikehau Capital Launches Aero Strategy, Targets €800M in AUM
- UBSG SW : UBS Ermotti Not Convinced Inflation Really Under Control: LMD
- UCB BB : Receives US FDA NDA Supplemental 13 approval for Fintepla (Fenfluramine Hydrochloride)
- ULVR LN : Unilever to Sell Elida Beauty to Yellow Wood Partners; No Terms
- VIV FP : Vivendi Starts Legal Action Against Tel Italia Network Sale
- VOD LN : Iliad Seeks Vodafone Italy JV Proposal by End-Jan.: Reuters
- WBD IM : Webuild Sells Stake in SPV Milan M4 Line to ATM for EU141.3m
- YPFD AR : YPF Board Approves Horacio Marin Appointment as CEO (1)