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The second-youngest Arnault is expanding his role within LVMH

Spare a thought for 29-year-old Frédéric Arnault, chief executive of Swiss sports watch brand TAG Heuer and fourth child of LVMH’s Bernard Arnault; he can’t even go to a party without rumours circulating that he is changing jobs.

Last summer his attendance at a Bulgari event sparked speculation that he was about to take over as chief executive of the Roman jeweller. Even though he had said he was not moving to Bulgari in an interview earlier in the year, the rumours made it into the Swiss press and he was annoyed at having to deny them again. But when we meet in Geneva just before Christmas he is more sanguine. With an ironic smile, he says he has just read that he will be taking over one of the group’s fashion labels.

He isn’t. Instead, on January 8 he will step into the newly created role of CEO of LVMH Watches, with responsibility for TAG Heuer, Hublot and Zenith. LVMH is usually reluctant to share figures relating to smaller branches of its €79.2bn-revenue business, but according to Arnault the combined turnover of this triumvirate of brands is in the region of SFr1.6bn (£1.5bn).

Hard luxury is becoming more important for the group and the family. In addition to Arnault’s move, his younger brother Jean runs watchmaking at Louis Vuitton, and has relaunched the Gerald Genta and Daniel Roth brands, while his older sibling Alexandre is at Tiffany, acquired by LVMH for $15.8bn in 2020 and treated to a Peter Marino-revamped flagship last year.

LVMH entered watchmaking in 1999 with the acquisition of TAG Heuer and Zenith, when Arnault was five years old. It is almost as if a job was kept open for him as he attended first the famous Lycée Louis-le-Grand, then, like his father, l’École Polytechnique, finally becoming the first Arnault to work in the watch industry in 2017 when he joined TAG as head of connected technologies.

Not the case, he says. “It was really my will and my decision to join the [LVMH] group. My father never pushed me. My alternative was launching a tech start-up, which I did with a friend from school, in mobile payments, and we sold it to a bank.” BNP bought the 18-month-old business, Neos, in early 2018, shortly after Arnault joined Tag Heuer.

Tech bro phase out of his system, he chose to join the watch brand in part because the TAG part of the name is an acronym for Techniques d’Avant Garde. “Being an engineer,” like his father, “I was trained in mathematics, applied mathematics, computer science, and I really like the idea of disrupting, innovating and creating through science,” he says. That’s one thing you notice pretty quickly about Arnault: he is conspicuously clever. He plays the piano to concert level and is also keen on sports, which first brought him into contact with TAG when he was 12.

“My first watch was a TAG Heuer Aquaracer given to me by my father. Loving sports myself, I think it’s the sportiest brand in watchmaking.” Then, almost as if he feels expression of a personal opinion is slightly irresponsible, he quickly adds: “we validated that with surveys, and brand studies: sporty is one of the characteristics that’s stood out the most with consumers.”

Tall, thin, fresh-faced, tousle-haired and young-looking even for 29, there is something endearingly diffident about him. Talking with him is like speaking to a conscientious postdoctoral researcher who feels the need to substantiate his arguments with research and data.

When he joined TAG in 2017, his first job was building the smartwatch team of 60 people working in Paris. He took over as CEO in 2020 and set about “elevating the product and the brand”. Perhaps unsurprisingly, given LVMH’s raison d'être, he feels “it was extremely important to consider, treat, and develop TAG Heuer as a luxury brand” even if it meant venturing into price categories way beyond the brand’s comfort zone of SFr2,000-3,000 (£1,870-2,800). “There was a ceiling,” he says. The brand had never sold anything over SFr50,000 (£46,700) “but we broke it completely.”

The ceiling-smasher was the Carrera Plasma Diamant d’Avant Garde, a half-million euros’ worth of Tourbillon Nanograph movement, Isograph carbon nanotube hairspring, polycrystalline diamond dial and black sandblasted aluminium liberally smothered with lab-grown diamonds. It was a bold move for a brand better known for affordable sports watches, but he believes that TAG had the legitimacy. Annual sales of the model are in “the tens”, he says, with customers waiting up to a year to take delivery. “We’re watchmakers since the 1860s. If you develop a product with the best technical features, it has a cost. But if the design is right, if the brand is consistent through all these touch points, there’s no reason why the customer wouldn’t buy it.”

One of those “touch points” was associating TAG with Porsche, with whom TAG struck a long-term, global brand partnership three years ago, spanning specialised watch launches to traditional motorsport sponsorship and customer events. Both brands use the name Carrera for famous products, and both have a long history in motorsport, but they had never worked together. “We tried many times in the past but never managed to make it happen. But we felt it would send a clear message on who we are, so we took the time to build a relationship with the Porsche team.”

A return to Formula 1 with Red Bull was another. But it isn’t all fast cars and €500,000 watches. One of the big hits of last year was the SFr6,200 (£5,800) Carrera Glassbox, a name referring to sapphire crystal shaped like the domed watch glasses of the past, which imparts a retro look to a modern watch. The period style watch glass has been a bit of an industry trend, and is exactly the sort of detail that watch geeks get off on. It was introduced to mark the 60th anniversary of the Carrera watch and celebrated with a short — and really rather funny — film starring brand ambassador Ryan Gosling.

Arnault believes that the strategy of brand elevation is paying off. “In 2017, the average selling price was around SFr1,800. This year [2023], we are a little over SFr3,000. Since I became CEO in June 2020 [a year watch sales decreased by 30 per cent on average across the industry due to Covid-19, according to Bain] sales have grown by 50 per cent, and 2023 will be another record year.” At the same time production has dropped from around 500,000 watches a year in 2017 to a little over 400,000 in 2023.

Growth, he says, has come from selling higher-end watches, having less unsold stock and increasing direct to customer sales through ecommerce and own-brand stores. “We streamlined our distribution, halving points of sale while doubling the number of monobrand stores to just over 300.”

Ultimately the wisdom or otherwise of this strategic shift will become clear in years to come, but what is in no doubt is his sadness at leaving TAG. He has a thinly veiled warning for his successor. “The brand needs consistency. Now, it’s really important that the strategy we put in place continues.”

When asked about plans for the other brands, he takes refuge in executive obfuscation and says it’s too early to say. When pushed, he says that Hublot is in the process of “redefining the platform overall”, whatever that means. As for Zenith, he mentions the brand having had “a very important role in the industrialisation of watchmaking” which I suppose is a holding statement of sorts while he gets his feet under the desk and his head around the brands he will be, to borrow a favourite phrase of his, “road-mapping”.

Any professional move by an Arnault, whether it is his elder sister Delphine to Dior or Frédéric to oversee watches, raises the topic of succession, a subject which he greets with a polite weariness. “We all have immense respect, admiration, and love for our father. It’s his will, and it’s also our will, that he stays in charge as long as possible. And, as you saw, he extended the retirement age [to 80], to still be CEO of the group.” Bernard is 74.

Significantly this new job will see Arnault spending more time in Paris, closer to his father. “I will still be very committed to watches, but I will be working more closely with him on strategic projects,” he says. Then, perhaps feeling he has revealed too much, he adds, “I’m here because I love what I do. I love the brands. I love the project and the journey. Succession is not a topic we think about today. It will come in due time. And he’s a master of timing.” Another trait that Frédéric seems to share with his father.

Investigation comes four months after Brussels complains of flood of Chinese electric cars

China has launched a new anti-dumping investigation into French brandy imports, escalating a trade dispute between Beijing and Brussels.

Officials at the Chinese commerce ministry said its probe into brandy imported from the EU was prompted by complaints from domestic manufacturers. Brandy is the most-imported spirit into China, and comes primarily from France.

The investigation comes four months after European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen announced an anti-subsidy probe into imports of Chinese electric vehicles, supported by French car executives and officials.

“Global markets are now flooded with cheaper Chinese electric cars,” she said in September. At the time, Brussels warned of likely Chinese retaliation.

Shares in major producers of the liquor fell on Friday, with Rémy Cointreau down more than 8 per cent and Pernod Ricard down by 5 per cent. Shares in Diageo and luxury group LVMH, which owns Hennessy cognac, also traded down by 2.6 per cent and 1.6 per cent respectively.

France’s cognac industry association BNIC said it would “fully co-operate with Chinese authorities” to address their concerns.

“We are confident that our products and commercial practices fully comply with Chinese and international regulations, and that [the] EU and China will find a constructive way to resolve any bilateral disputes,” it said.

Brussels has in recent months launched several other investigations into allegedly unfair Chinese trade practices, imposing punitive tariffs on imports of plastic for bottles and opening a probe into suspected dumping of biofuel.

Von der Leyen has complained of the bloc’s record near-€400bn trade deficit with China and led calls to de-risk relations, finding alternative sources of supply for critical products. The commission is also proposing tighter national controls on investments and exports.

Beijing has strongly criticised the EU over the probes, saying late last month that it “firmly opposes protectionist practices” and the “abuse of trade remedies”.

The commerce ministry said on Friday that the brandy investigation should be completed within one year, but could be extended for a further six months.

“This . . . is just a warning shot,” said Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of think-tank Ecipe in Brussels. “The EU has not actually done anything [on EVs]. The big one is yet to come.”

China imported alcoholic drinks worth about $4.5bn in 2022, according to Daxue Consulting, a China-based market research group. Brandy was the most-imported spirit, with around 37.5mn litres from French producers imported in 2022.

Premium liquor sales — particularly for cognac, a type of French brandy — were already under pressure this year as pandemic-era drinking habits and the effervescence of bars reopening post-lockdown faded.

LVMH, Rémy Cointreau and Pernod Ricard all reported declining cognac sales in their third-quarter earnings, largely because of weaker US demand.

China is the other major market for cognac, where the ongoing recovery from strict zero-Covid lockdowns was expected to help balance slower sales in the US.

Export volumes of cognac fell 18.9 per cent between August 2022 and the end of July 2023, according to the cognac producer’s association UGVC. The US is by far the largest consumer of the drink, importing more than half of bottles produced, according to the Bureau National Interprofessionnel du Cognac, with China in second place.

Trevor Stirling, spirits analyst at Bernstein, said cognac producers would be adversely affected by any tariffs imposed on exports to China. He pointed to a similar crackdown on Australian barley and wine, which hammered the local industry when China imposed tariffs in 2020.

“This is unlikely to be resolved quickly,” said Stirling. “It will hang over the industry for at least six months.”

Alongside the EU probes, France has taken its own steps to promote European-made products. In a decree to be published this month, it is restricting purchasing subsidies for electric vehicles so they cannot apply to most cars made in China, based on their environmental record.

Sir Christopher Hohn’s fund recovers from 2022 losses helped by bets on Alphabet and Moody’s

British billionaire Sir Christopher Hohn’s activist hedge fund TCI rose 32.7 per cent last year, well ahead of equity markets, helped by bets on stocks such as Alphabet and Moody’s, according to people who have seen the numbers.

The gains by The Children’s Investment fund, which manages just over $49bn in assets, mean it has more than recovered losses suffered in 2022, when it fell 18 per cent as global stock markets tumbled.

The fund’s performance in 2023 compares with a 24.2 per cent rise in the S&P 500 index and the FTSE 100’s 3.8 per cent gain. Equity hedge funds gained 6.6 per cent on average last year to the end of November, according to data group HFR.

TCI’s largest holdings include Alphabet, Canadian National Railway, Visa, General Electric and rating agency Moody’s as at the end of September, according to a regulatory filing.

Alphabet’s shares surged 58 per cent last year, driven in part by investor enthusiasm over the potential for large US technology firms to implement artificial intelligence in their services.

Moody’s was up 40 per cent, while Visa rose 25 per cent.

TCI held a $4bn position in Microsoft as of June last year, but sold it by the end of the third quarter, according to filings.

TCI invests in a concentrated portfolio of stocks that it tends to hold for long periods. Hohn has a reputation for shareholder activism, pushing for change when he disagrees with the direction taken by company directors.

In February last year Hohn pushed for Airbus to drop its efforts to acquire a stake in the cyber security arm of French IT company Atos.

He also called for three board members to resign at Spanish telecoms company Cellnex and was partly successful, with two of the three departing. The stock was up 15 per cent in 2023.

Canadian National’s ex-chief executive Jacques Ruest stepped down in 2021 after a campaign by Hohn.

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While luxury giant LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton is a major sponsor of the event, sector leaders fear that logistical chaos could put off well-heeled tourists.

PARIS — Never has luxury played such a central role in the Olympics.

Ever since LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton signed on in July to become a premium partner of the Paris 2024 Olympic and Paralympic Games, the brands in its stable have ramped up their communications efforts for what is set to be a banner year for sports marketing.

But as questions swirl about security and logistics, local support for the games has ebbed, while luxury sector representatives worry that business will suffer during an event that officials have warned will result in widespread disruption over several months.

Fashion organizers sought to limit the damage by moving forward the dates of the fall 2024 edition of Paris Couture Week.

A survey by market research firm Odoxa conducted in October found that 65 percent of French people were in favor of hosting the Olympics, down from 76 percent two years earlier. Among residents of Paris and its suburbs, support fell to 56 percent from 77 percent.

This decline in French optimism probably mirrors increasingly pressing questions as the event approaches, against the backdrop of deep concerns about purchasing power but also security: will these Olympics not be too expensive? Will the organizing committee be capable of delivering the world’s premier sporting event? Will the opening ceremony go smoothly?” the pollster said.

In greater Paris, 52 percent of dwellers said they planned to skip town during the event, which coincides with France’s summer holidays, Odoxa reported. Following the murder of a German tourist in a terrorist attack close to the Eiffel Tower in December, there are growing fears an incident could mar the opening ceremony on July 26.

Despite reassuring updates from the Paris 2024 Olympic Committee, Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo stirred controversy in November when she said that parts of the city’s railway infrastructure won’t be ready — a key point since all spectators are expected to use public transport to get to the competition sites.

Transport Minister Clément Beaune clapped back, accusing Hidalgo of a “political betrayal” and guaranteeing that everything was on track. However, the same minister had earlier warned that traffic restrictions in the French capital would be “hardcore.”

Paris police chief Laurent Nuñez recently unveiled maps showing much of the city will be off-limits to cars, with construction on some sporting facilities in central Paris set to begin in March, meaning that motorists will require a QR code to access the designated areas. That measure raised hackles among members of parliament upset that they were not consulted.

The Fédération de la Haute Couture et de la Mode, French fashion’s governing body, has been silent since revealing in April that the fall couture shows would take place from June 24 to 27, one week earlier than usual, to avoid clashing with preparations for the Games.

“Everyone is committed to ensuring that the Olympic Games are a global success,” the federation’s president Bruno Pavlovsky said at the time. “It’s going to be quite breathtaking and extraordinary. Having said that, the reality is that this comes with huge security challenges and obligations that must be met.”

The federation is working with authorities to draw up a list of the 200 spaces that usually host fashion events and determine whether they can be used this summer.

“Most of the usual venues will be taken over by the Olympic Games, whether to host journalists or competitions. Our job now is to find the locations where we will be able to host men’s and haute couture shows, knowing that we have the support of the competent authorities,” said Pavlovsky, who is president of fashion and president of Chanel SAS.

While some overseas brands may simply skip showing in Paris this summer, local companies are still seeking clarity about the likely impact on their operations.

“There is a danger that this will be a terrible period for business and culture, because the kind of visitor that goes to Olympic competitions is probably not the same as for museums, and possibly not a client for our houses either,” said Bénédicte Epinay, chief executive officer of French luxury goods association Comité Colbert.

She noted that museums and hotels on the Rue de Rivoli, the French capital’s central axis, risk being particularly impacted. The proximity of the Golden Triangle luxury shopping district to the presidential palace and key embassies is another source for concern, she added.

Meanwhile, French consumer rights watchdog UFC-Que Choisir said hotel owners were taking advantage of the Olympics to sharply increase their usual room rates. In a poll of 80 three-star and four-star establishments published last week, it found that the average room rate for the day of the opening ceremony was 1,033 euros, versus 317 euros for the night of July 12 to 13, representing an increase of 226 percent.

French luxury officials are worried that the U.K., which has hemorrhaged luxury shoppers since scrapping tax-free shopping for international visitors in the wake of Brexit, could take advantage of chaos in Paris to lure back well-heeled tourists.

“There’s a big question mark around the event, but one that is tinged with concern,” Epinay said.