Barrons : Egypt Is Getting a Bailout. Bond Investors Could Benefit.

Egypt Is Getting a Bailout. Bond Investors Could Benefit.

Egypt, the Middle Eastern giant with a population of 114 million, is too big to fail, particularly at this moment.

The United Arab Emirates, International Monetary Fund, and European Union forcefully underlined this point over the past week, pledging some $40 billion in investments and loans.

President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi’s government responded with drama of its own, letting its pegged currency devalue by more than a third and hiking interest rates by six percentage points, to 27.75%, to battle inflation. That set up an enticing play for bond investors, who can reap yields above 30% on nine-month paper in stabilized Egyptian pounds. For now, “We see the appeal of it as a short-term trade,” says Razan Nasser, an emerging markets sovereign analyst at T. Rowe Price. “Beyond one year, we would look for signs of commitment to real structural changes.”

Egypt has been rocked by recent geopolitical ructions. The world’s top wheat importer, it suffered after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine drove up grain and fuel prices. Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping have cut Suez Canal fees by close to half. The wider crisis in Gaza has curtailed tourism, Egypt’s other top currency earner.

The U.A.E. kicked off the multinational rescue effort, pledging a $24 billion down payment on a London-size resort slated for virgin Mediterranean coast in western Egypt. Cairo took advantage of the cash anchor to let the currency, and related currency controls, go. The IMF responded with a $9 billion-ish loan package. The EU proposes kicking in another $8 billion.

The currency float is reviving an all but moribund Egyptian financial sector, says Ahmed Hafez, head of research at Beltone Securities in Cairo. “Banks are starting to clear backlogs and make loans available,” he says. So far, so good—with the emphasis on so far. Egypt enters its bailout with a budget deficit pushing 7% of gross domestic product and inflation galloping around 35% annually. Paying 30% interest on its bonds has swelled debt servicing to 60% of state revenue, Nasser says. “They still have to do the harder parts, rein in fiscal policy and allow the private sector to come in,” says Rajeeb Pramanik, senior emerging markets strategist at BCA Research.

Sisi’s technocrats cut back heavily on fuel and other consumer subsidies during a previous reform round in 2016-17. The current budget bloat is driven more by inefficient state-owned companies and expensive infrastructure projects.

Reining these in may prove more challenging still, as it affects Egypt’s military, whose economic tentacles reach across the economy. “It’s not clear that Sisi can maintain power if he pushes the military out,” Pramanik observes.

Financial stocks like Commercial International Bank-Egypt (ticker: COMI.Egypt), the No. 2 name in Egypt’s index, could in theory benefit from unclogging the currency arteries. Two vibrant financial technology companies, E-Finance for Digital & Financial Investments (EFIH.Egypt) and Fawry for Banking Technology & Electronic Payment (FWRY.Egypt), also rank in the top 10. But political question marks are making equity investors, whose time horizon generally stretches to a few years, cautious. “We’ve gone from zero to initiating exposure,” says Jonathan Binder, chief investment officer at frontier market specialist Consilium Investment Management.

Egypt could also surprise on the upside, argues Carlos de Sousa, emerging market debt strategist at Vontobel Asset Management. Letting the currency float might actually decrease inflation by making imported goods less scarce and prices more competitive. “Everything we have been waiting for over the past year and a half is happening,” he says. “It’s attractive but not a slam dunk.”

Barrons : How AI Is Sparking a Change in Power

How AI Is Sparking a Change in Power
Energy companies increasingly cite AI as a major driver of electricity demand. But the grid could hold everything back.

Elon Musk recently made a bold prediction about artificial intelligence—and not the one about it being an existential threat to humanity.

Musk said rising demand for power-hungry AI chips could soon lead to an electricity shortage. “Next year, you will see that they just can’t find enough electricity to run all the chips,” the Tesla CEO said at the Bosch ConnectedWorld conference late last month.

While AI’s surging demand may not lead to mass electrical outages, the AI boom is already changing how data centers are built and where they’re located, and it’s already sparking a reshaping of U.S. energy infrastructure.

Energy companies increasingly cite AI power consumption as a leading contributor to new demand. AES, a Virginia-based utility, recently told investors that data centers could comprise up to 7.5% of total U.S. electricity consumption by 2030, citing data from Boston Consulting Group. The company is largely betting its growth on the ability to deliver renewable power to data centers in the coming years.

Sempra Energy, which operates public utilities in California and Texas, has cited AI as a major factor in its growth, alongside the electrification of the oil and gas industry.

New data centers coming on line in its regions ”represent the potential for thousands of megawatts of new electric load—often hundreds of megawatts for just one project,” Sempra told investors on its earnings call last month.

According to Boston Consulting Group, the data-center share of U.S. electricity consumption is expected to triple from 126 terawatt hours in 2022 to 390 terawatt hours by 2030. That’s the equivalent usage of 40 million U.S. homes, the firm says.

Much of the data-center growth is being driven by new applications of generative AI. As AI dominates the conversation, it’s likely to bring renewed focus on the nation’s energy grid.

Siemens Energy CEO Christian Bruch told shareholders at the company’s recent annual meeting that electricity needs will soar with the growing use of AI. “That means one thing: no power, no AI. Or to put it more clearly: no electricity, no progress.”

The technology sector has already shown how quickly AI can recast long-held assumptions. Chips, for instance, driven by Nvidia have replaced software as tech’s hottest commodity. Nvidia has said that the trillion dollars invested in global data-center infrastructure will eventually shift from traditional servers with central processing units, or CPUs, to AI servers with graphics processing units, or GPUs. GPUs are better able to power the parallel computations needed for AI.

For AI workloads, Nvidia says that two GPU servers can do the work of a thousand CPU servers at a fraction of the cost and energy. Still, the better performance capabilities of GPUs is leading to more aggregate power usage as developers find innovative new ways to use AI.

The overall power consumption increase will come on two fronts: an increase in the number of GPUs sold per year and a higher power draw from each GPU. Research firm 650 Group expects AI server shipments will rise from one million units last year to six million units in 2028. According to Gartner, most AI GPUs will draw 1,000 watts of electricity by 2026, up from the roughly 650 watts on average today.

Ironically, data-center operators will use AI technology to address the power demands. “AI can be used to improve efficiency, where you’re modeling temperature, humidity, and cooling,” says Christopher Wellise, vice president of sustainability for Equinix , one of the nation’s largest data-center companies. “It can also be used for predictive maintenance.” Equinix states that using AI modeling at one of its data centers has already improved energy efficiency by 9%.

Data centers will also install more-effective cooling systems. Vertiv VRT , a leading provider of power and cooling infrastructure equipment, says that AI servers generate five times more heat than traditional CPU servers and require ten times more cooling per square foot. AI server maker Super Micro SMCI estimates that switching to liquid cooling from traditional air-based cooling can reduce operating expenses by more than 40%.

But cooling, AI efficiency, and other technologies won’t fully solve the problem of satisfying AI’s energy demands. Certain regions could face issues with their local grid. Historically, the two most popular areas to build data centers were Northern Virginia and Silicon Valley. The regions’ proximity to major internet backbones enabled quicker response times for applications, which is also helpful for AI. (Northern Virginia was home to AOL in the 1990s. A decade later, Silicon Valley was hosting most of the country’s online platforms.)

Today, each region faces challenges around power capacity and data-center availability. Both areas are years away making from the grid upgrades that would be needed to run more data centers, according to DigitalBridge, an asset manager that invests in digital infrastructure.

DigitalBridge CEO Marc Ganzi says the tightness in Northern Virginia and Northern California is driving data-center construction into other markets, including Atlanta; Columbus, Ohio; and Reno, Nev. All three areas offer better power availability than Silicon Valley and Northern Virginia, though the network quality is slightly inferior as of now. Reno also offers better access to renewable energy sources such as solar and wind.

Ultimately, though, Ganzi says the obstacle facing the energy sector—and future AI applications—is the country’s decades-old electric transmission grid.

“It isn’t so much that we have a power issue. We have a transmission infrastructure issue,” he says. “Power is abundant in the United States, but it’s not efficiently transmitted or efficiently distributed.”

It’s one more problem AI will need to solve.

>>> US Close Dow -0.49% S&P -0.65% Nasdaq -0.96% Russell +0.40%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market closed this quarterly options expiration day on a downbeat note on above-average volume at the NYSE. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%), the S&P 500 (-0.6%), and the Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%) closed with losses, but off their lows of the day.

Selling activity was partially related to some normal consolidation efforts that left many stocks lower. The equal-weighted S&P 500 declined 0.2% and 23 of the 30 Dow components closed lower. Still, the market was showing signs of resilience to selling efforts, true to 2024 form.
The A-D line didn't show a strong bias toward either side of the tape. In fact, advancers had a fractional lead over decliners at both the NYSE and at the Nasdaq.

Also, the Russell 2000 outperformed, gaining 0.4% thanks to strength in its energy stocks and regional bank names. This strength also left the S&P 500 energy sector higher by 0.2% and the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) with a 0.5% gain.

Aside from energy, the utilities (+0.1%), materials (+0.1%), and industrials (+0.1%) sectors settled higher while the remaining seven sectors logged declines. Relative weakness in the mega cap space drove the information technology (-1.3%), communication services (-1.2%), and consumer discretionary (-1.1%) sectors to last place on the leaderboard.

Sharp earnings-related declines in Jabil (JBL 123.15, -24.31, -16.5%) and Adobe (ADBE 492.46, -77.99, -13.7%) also contributed to the info tech sector's underperformance.

The price action in Treasuries also contributed to the negative bias in the stock market. The 2-yr note yield rose three basis points to 4.72% and the 10-yr note yield settled one basis point higher at 4.30%.
  • S&P 500: +7.3% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +6.4% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +5.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +0.6% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • February Import Prices 0.3%; Prior 0.8%
  • February Import Prices ex-oil 0.2%; Prior 0.7%
  • February Export Prices 0.8%; Prior was revised to 0.9% from 0.8%
  • February Export Prices ex-ag. 0.8%; Prior was revised to 1.1% from 0.9%
  • March NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Index -20.9 (consensus -8.0); Prior -2.4
  • February Industrial Production 0.1% ( consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to -0.5% from -0.1%; February Capacity Utilization 78.3% (consensus 78.4%); Prior was revised to 78.3% from 78.5%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that manufacturing output improved notably in February, reversing some of its decrease that was recorded in January, though even with the February rebound, manufacturing output remains down 0.7% yr/yr.
  • March Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim 76.5 (consensus 77.3); Prior 76.9
    • The key takeaway from the report is that overall sentiment has shown little change so far in 2024 and it remains halfway between the low reached in June 2022 and pre-pandemic highs.

Looking ahead, Monday's economic data is limited to the March NAHB Housing Market Index ( consensus 49; prior 48) at 10:00 ET.

>>> US This week's biggest % gainers/losers

This week's biggest % gainers/losers
The following are this week's top percentage gainers and losers, categorized by sectors (over $300 mln market cap and 100K average daily volume).

This week's top % gainers
  • Healthcare: SIGA (7.23 +48.66%), PRQR (2.55 +22.01%), FGEN (2.14 +18.61%), BEAT (2.35 +18.1%), HRTX (3.06 +17.5%), LXRX (2.51 +15.67%), SLDB (12.86 +15.44%), AKBA (1.69 +14.97%)
  • Materials: SCCO (102.81 +19.16%), NGD (1.74 +15.67%)
  • Consumer Discretionary: TOUR (0.8 +21.45%), DESP (11.36 +19.08%), BZUN (2.86 +17.01%), DKS (211.17 +16.59%)
  • Information Technology: COMM (1.59 +27.2%), GDS (7.62 +18.8%)
  • Financials: STI (1.78 +129.61%), SBNY (2.05 +18.16%), NYCB (3.93 +14.77%)
  • Energy: REI (1.84 +17.95%)
This week's top % losers
  • Healthcare: CASI (3.19 -34.5%), ACAD (18.29 -21.97%), URGN (14.21 -21.01%)
  • Materials: GLT (1.71 -19.34%)
  • Industrials: RUN (9.75 -22.41%), TPIC (2.68 -21.78%), LUV (28.12 -17.94%)
  • Consumer Discretionary: GRPN (13.17 -30.61%), SNBR (13.64 -19.75%), NDLS (1.81 -19.42%), IGT (20.63 -17.76%)
  • Information Technology: CMTL (4.55 -21.42%), JBL (121.57 -19.62%), SEDG (62.02 -18.09%)
  • Financials: RILY (17.74 -23.7%)