>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 24th of June 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Britvic Raised to Buy at Investec; PT 1,350 pence
* Hochtief Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 124 euros
* Redcare Pharmacy NV Raised to Buy at M.M. Warburg; PT 138 euros (+)
* Verve Group SE Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 2.49 euros (+)

>>> Down
* Bertrandt Cut to Hold at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 34 euros (+)
* Carl Zeiss Meditec PT Cut to 85 euros from 145 euros at RBC
* Flutter Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 15,000 pence
* Forvia Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 12 euros
* Raute Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 15 euros
* SIG Cut to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 28 pence (+)
* Valeo Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 11.30 euros
* YouGov Cut to Hold From Buy by Liberum
* Zalando Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 24 euros

>>> Initiation
* Coca-Cola Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $72 (+)
* Colgate-Palmolive Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $109 (+)
* Elekta Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 70 kronor (+)
* Envipco Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 8.31 euros
* GE Vernova Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $211.83
* Keurig Dr Pepper Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $36 (+)
* Kimberly-Clark Reinstated Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $146 (+)
* Monster Beverage Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $48 (+)
* Nordrest Holding Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities (+)
* P&G Reinstated Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $187 (+)
* PepsiCo Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT $174 (+)
* Pod Point Group Rated New Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 67 pence (+)
* Public Policy Holding Rated New Buy at Canaccord; PT 250 pence (+)

>>> Call
* Deutsche Bank Says ‘Time For Another Breather’ in S&P 500 Rally
* Flutter a Great Company at a Fair Price, Peel Hunt Cuts to Hold
* Goldman Flags Tariffs as Key Risk to US Stocks From Elections
* Hochtief Raised to Buy at Jefferies on Step Change in Growth
* JPMorgan Stock Strategists See Europe Politics to Keep Weighing (+)
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says Market Focusing on Softening Growth
* Zalando Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on Top-Line Concerns

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Zealand Pharma (22Z TH) +2.1%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) +1.9%
    • Hochtief Raised to Buy at Jefferies on Step Change in Growth
  • Carlsberg (CBGB TH) +1.6%
  • Frontline PLC (HF6 TH) +1.6%
    • Midyear Outlook: Global Marine Shipping
  • Investor AB (IVSD TH) +1.6%
  • Umicore (NVJP TH) +1.5%
  • Rubis (BYN TH) +1.2%
  • AB InBev (1NBA TH) +1.2%
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) +1%
  • BAE (BSP TH) +1%
  • Barclays (BCY TH) -1%
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX TH) -1.2%
    • Carl Zeiss Meditec PT Cut to 85 euros from 145 euros at RBC
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) -1.5%
  • Philips (PHI1 TH) -1.7%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) -4.6%
    • Zalando Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on Top-Line Concerns

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • BMW (BMW TH) +1%
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) -5.2%
    • Zalando Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on Top-Line Concerns
MDAX:
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) +2.2%
    • Hochtief Raised to Buy at Jefferies on Step Change in Growth
SDAX:
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +9.8%
    • Deutz Shares Jump on Tradegate After Defense Re-Entry Report
  • Mutares (MUX TH) +3.5%
  • Suess MicroTec (SMHN TH) +1%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) +1%
  • Douglas AG (DOU TH) +1%
  • Metro AG (B4B TH) -1%
  • Grand City Properties (GYC TH) -1.2%
  • Schott Pharma AG & Co KGaA (1SXP TH) -1.8%
  • Synlab (SYAB TH) -2.3%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) -4.6%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 24th of June 2024

>>> Up
* Britvic Raised to Buy at Investec; PT 1,350 pence
* Hochtief Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 124 euros

>>> Down
* Carl Zeiss Meditec PT Cut to 85 euros from 145 euros at RBC
* Flutter Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 15,000 pence
* Forvia Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 12 euros
* Raute Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 15 euros
* Valeo Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 11.30 euros
* YouGov Cut to Hold From Buy by Liberum
* Zalando Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 24 euros

>>> Initiation
* Envipco Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 8.31 euros
* GE Vernova Rated New Outperform at Haitong Intl; PT $211.83

>>> Call
* Deutsche Bank Says ‘Time For Another Breather’ in S&P 500 Rally
* Flutter a Great Company at a Fair Price, Peel Hunt Cuts to Hold
* Goldman Flags Tariffs as Key Risk to US Stocks From Elections
* Hochtief Raised to Buy at Jefferies on Step Change in Growth
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says Market Focusing on Softening Growth
* Zalando Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on Top-Line Concerns

>>> What to look at today - 24th of June 2024

A gauge of Asian currencies slipped for a third session, kicking off a week of inflation data that may help guide bets on the global interest rates outlook.  Bloomberg’s Asia dollar index fell. The yen stayed below 160 per dollar, Japan’s top currency official, Masato Kanda, said authorities are ready to intervene to support it 24-hours a day, if needed. Traders have been wary of an escalation in official rhetoric after the yen’s 1.5% slide this month, while retail investors appear to be reloading bets for a rebound.  An index for the region’s stocks also declined, with equities in South Korea, Hong Kong and mainland China all falling. Those for Japan fluctuated. European and US share futures were also softer. The moves come as markets are at a critical juncture for positioning into the second half of 2024 with the outlook for central bank policy rates from New Zealand to Japan and the US unclear. Inflation prints in Australia and Tokyo, as well as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of consumer costs, may yield clues, but political risks loom large. The first UK prime ministerial and US presidential debates are scheduled, and the first round of voting in the French legislative election is set to take place this weekend. This should “set the tone for fiscal risks,” Savage said. Treasury 10-year yields were steady in Asian trading. Later this week, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation yardsticks are poised to show the tamest monthly advances since late last year — which may pave the way for officials to begin lowering interest rates. Meanwhile, China’s currency fixing was little changed at 7.1201 per dollar on Monday, after the country’s assets sold off again last week as policymakers showed no urgency to roll out more stimulus.   The yuan’s weakness is symptomatic of deteriorating sentiment toward the world’s second-largest economy, which is also seeing a bond market rally as investors seek out haven assets. Benchmark yields have tumbled toward record lows amid mixed economic data and expectations of further stimulus. Separately, China and the European Union have agreed to start talks on the bloc’s plans to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from the Asian nation.  The S&P 500 fell on Friday, and traders and strategists begin to question how long this year’s rally can persist given shifting bets on central bank rate cuts and election uncertainties in Europe.  The S&P 500 Index has likely logged most of the gains it will see this year as investors are growing increasingly nervous about the stock market’s rich valuations, according to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey published on Monday.  Signs of skittishness are evident as about half of survey takers say stocks will see the beginning of a correction of at least 10% this year.  In commodities, oil extended the previous session’s decline toward $80 a barrel amid a stronger greenback and a technical indicator suggesting the recent rally has gone too far. Gold was little changed, having racked up a loss the previous week as investors pared bets on US rate cuts. 

Nikkei +0.76% Hang Seng -0.80% CSI -0.08% Shanghai -0.62% Shenzen -1.53%

Eur$ 1.0693 CNH 7.2892 CNY 7.2615 JPY 159.73 GBP 1.2644 CHF 0.8934 RUB 89.0751 TRY 32.8477 WTI$ 80.65 -0.10% Gold 2,325.25 +0.14% BTC 62,400 -2% ETH 3,357 -2.15%

S&P -0.01% Nasdaq +0.04% EuroStoxx +0.02% FTSE -0.16% Dax +0.05% SMI -0.04%

Macro :
- Japan Intervention Warnings Halt Yen’s 7-Day Slide: Macro Squawk
- China to create fund to rescue financial companies [no source cited]; the new fund would be used to prevent the collapse of financial firms - Nikkei
- China Talked With EU, Members for Over 80 Times on Tariff: CCTV
- Goldman Flags Tariffs as Key Risk to US Stocks From Elections
- Rahm Emanuel calls on US and Japan to accelerate missile production

Keep an eye on :
- ALKB DC : ALK-Abello Boosts FY Revenue in Constant Currency Forecast
- ALKB DC : ALK-Abello Outlook Encouraging, But China ‘Stumble’: Street Wrap
- AMZN US : Formula 1 and Amazon Aim for AI-Powered ‘Personalized’ Viewing
- AAPL US : Apple Won’t Roll Out AI Tech in EU Market Over DMA Concerns
- AAPL US : Apple, Meta Have Discussed an AI Partnership -- WSJ
- ARGX BB : Argenx’s Vyvgart Shot Gains US Approval for Rare Nerve Disorder
- BMW GY : BMW Will Manufacture Fully Electric Vehicles in US Plant By 2026
- BA US : NASA, Boeing Delay Starliner Crew’s Return From Station Again
- BVIC LN : Pepsi gives its blessing to Carlsberg’s £3bn deal for Britvic
- CO FP : Casino Sells Corsica Unit to Rocca, Auchan Amid Debt Restructure
- CCR LN : Activist Engine Said to Call for Sale of Magners Cider Maker C&C
- DOO LN : Sky News: Private equity suitors aim to wrap up £2bn parcel delivery group Evri
- ENX FP : Business needs to calm down about French election, says Euronext CEO
- MBG GY : Mercedes-Benz Files Recall of 16,967 Vehicles: NHTSA
- NESN SW : Big Food Tries to Offset Obesity Drug Blow With Vitamins, Meals
- NHY NO : Macquarie Finalizes $332 Million Stake in Norsk Hydro Green Unit
- NOVOB DC : Ozempic Maker Novo Nordisk Scraps Plan for Dublin Factory: Times
- NVDA US : Nvidia Sales Grow So Fast That Wall Street Can’t Keep Up
- NVDA US : Qatar’s Ooredoo to Launch AI Platform Powered by Nvidia for MENA
- PAY LN : PayPoint Has Made A Strategic Investment Into Yodel Business
- PRX NA : *PROSUS CONSOLIDATED E-COMMERCE TRADING PROFIT $38M IN FY24
- PRU LN : Prudential to Buy Back $2 Billion Worth of Insurer’s Own Shares
- ROG SW : Genentech Wins FDA Approval for Rare Blood Disease Therapy
- ROG SW : Roche Says EMA Has Initiated Review of Elevidys Filing in DMD
- STLN SW : Swiss Steel CFO Portman Leaves, Thomas Löhr Is New Finance Chief
- TLGO SM : SPAIN MULLS BUYING 29% OF TALGO FROM TRILANTIC: EL CONFIDENCIAL
- THG LN : THG PLC Keeps Expectations Unchanged
- TKA GY : Thyssenkrupp Rules Out Forced Job Cuts in Steel Overhaul: WAZ
- 2330 TT : ByteDance, Broadcom Explore AI Chip TSMC Will Make, Reuters Says
- UBSG SW : Bank M&A Won’t Help Europe. Deeper Markets Will: Paul J. Davies

FT : UK listing reform is too important to be stalled by small stakeholders

UK listing reform is too important to be stalled by small stakeholders
Dual-class struggles

In postwar Paris, signs above kitchens often declared that the owner eats his own cooking, attesting to the cook’s confidence in the dishes amid the era’s food rationing.

This phrase springs to mind in the debate over proposed UK listing rules reforms. Corporate governance bodies and pension funds are mounting a co-ordinated, last-ditch bid to thwart changes that would allow dual-class share structures (DCSS) with no mandatory sunset clause and remove the need for shareholder approval for significant and related-party transactions.

In their letters to the UK Financial Conduct Authority, the International Corporate Governance Network and a coalition of UK pension funds pull no punches. They argue that the rule changes could deter investment in UK-listed shares, hike up the cost of capital for British firms, and erode London’s status as a financial centre — a triple whammy of woe for beleaguered Britain.

The pension funds state that the proposals (Alphaville emphasis):

. . . will make the UK less appealing as a destination for capital, exacerbating the current issues by making UK-listed companies less attractive to the kinds of high-quality, long-term investors that both our pre- and post-IPO companies . . . are looking for. In turn, this could raise the cost of capital for UK-listed companies as investors require a higher return for the increased risk.

Similarly, the ICGN’s letter — co-signed by shareholder and governance groups from Portugal, Italy, Canada, and Australia — argues that the UK’s high standards set it apart and draw in investors from all over the world. Relaxing them could scare away the foreign investors vital to the London market (our emphasis again):

The UK’s reputation for high quality listing and governance standards and resultant overseas investor confidence is both a competitive advantage and a positive differentiator for the UK market in a global context. According to the . . . Office for National Statistics, the proportion of shares in UK companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) held by overseas investors increased to a record high of 57.7% of the value of the UK stock market in 2022 . . . [B]eing listed on the UK premium segment is a powerful signal that the company adopts the highest governance standards and is well-placed to thrive over the long-term . . . [M]arket integrity is something that must be preserved, and not diluted.

The language carries an implied, but unmistakable, threat to divest from the UK.

The merits of the reforms are finely balanced and have been hotly debated. The ICGN cites studies suggesting that the benefits of dual-class share structures vanish after seven years, though the letter stops short of alleging any outright detriment. In fact, it’s not difficult to find counterexamples, and indeed the area is an academic minefield, with various studies struggling to find any link between governance and corporate performance. Whether long-term DCSS empowers visionaries or entrenches subpar management depends on myriad factors that fund managers have elsewhere been free to assess for themselves.

Whatever the pros and cons, two issues overshadow the arguments from the conscientious objectors. First, their investment choices belie their statements. Most of their equity portfolio is invested in companies and markets whose governance practices they decry. Second, their assumption that high standards attract investment is unsubstantiated and likely erroneous in the UK context.

For starters, the institutions represented by ICGN seem to have few qualms about investing in markets with less stringent standards, such as the US and various European countries. Its membership roster includes some of the largest investors in dual-class share structures and in markets that don’t require shareholder approval for significant and related-party transactions. Presumably, the corporate governance is good enough in those other venues to make their listed stocks investible. 

So there’s a clear discrepancy between the governance groups’ advocacy and investment teams’ actions. The ICGN’s letter doesn’t address the inconsistency or explain why the UK should maintain uniquely tougher standards than the other markets in which its members happily invest.

UK pension funds, meanwhile, have largely forsaken the domestic stock market, accounting for four per cent of total holdings. Pension funds have rotated much of their assets out of listed equities, and to the extent they are still invested, they barely hold any UK shares. Take this snapshot from lead letter author Railpen’s factsheet on its Global Equity Fund:
Or the disclosed allocation of the “Global Investments (up to 100 per cent shares) Fund” of cosignatory People’s Partnership:
And the top 10 holdings are all American and include companies with multiple classes of shares:

It’s a similar story with another signatory, Brunel Pension Partnership. The top 20 holdings of each of its four non-regional “Active Equity” funds include only one UK-listed stock; the 80 names are predominantly American and include dual-class share structures and even some Chinese firms.

This is not a criticism of their investment decisions. Quite the opposite: multiple-class share companies like Alphabet and Meta have been phenomenal stocks to own! But the critics’ investment choices mean their implied threat to pull their money out of the London market rings hollow. British pension funds have, as HSBC analysts recently pointed out, “nothing left to sell.” 

With so little skin in the (listed UK) game, the pension funds can scarcely be described as having “vested interests”. More like “uninvested interests”.

Similarly, it is difficult to give much credence to the groups’ claim that London’s gold-plated standards attract investment and thus result in a lower cost of capital. The commenters don’t cite any studies to substantiate this assertion; nor do they try to reconcile it with the bargain-basement rating and perennial underperformance of UK stocks.

Even as the ICGN and UK pension funds warn that lowering governance standards could deter investment, their own investment practices suggest a more nuanced reality. It’s probably more accurate to say that once governance reaches a threshold-acceptable level, other factors take precedence. Overly rigorous standards may not attract investment and may even be counterproductive by distracting management or discouraging companies from listing there.

The proposed listing reforms are the first, baby steps in the campaign to rehabilitate London as an equity market after a torrid period marred by delistings, reduced liquidity and an IPO drought. Much more will need to be done, especially around pensions, insurance and tax, and these efforts will attract scrutiny, debate and opposition from various interests. It would bode ill for the City’s revival if the UK couldn’t even amend its listing rules to align them with the rest of the world.

It is a fine line between being principled and priggish, and the UK has derived little benefit from wearing the hair shirt of its stricter standards.