TheChek News Flow

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of Aug 2026 V3(++)

>>> Up

* Akzo Nobel Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 71 euros

* Aramark PT Raised to $63 from $55 at Morgan Stanley

* Arkema Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 56 euros
* Austevoll Seafood Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities

* Clariant Raised to Buy at Berenberg

* Clariant Raised to Buy at Research Partners; PT 12 Swiss francs (+)

* Grieg Seafood Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 35 kroner

* HomeMaid Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 39 kronor

* Melrose Industries Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux

* Merck & Co Raised to Outperform at Daiwa; PT $143

* MOL Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 5,300 forint

* Nordic Aqua Partners Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities

* Quilter Raised to Outperform at Avior Capital Markets

* Robertet Raised to Buy at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 900 euros (+)

* Serco Raised to Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT 325 pence

* Wallenius Wilhelmsen Price Target Raised to NOK 150 from NOK 116 by SEB

* Wallenius Wilhelmsen Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities (+)

* Zehnder Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 89 Swiss francs (+)

>>> Down

* Aryzta Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 40 Swiss francs

* BBVA Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 25.30 euros

* BCP Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 1.11 euros

* Bunzl Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 3,000 pence

* CaixaBank Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 12.50 euros

* DiaSorin Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 55 euros

* DSM-Firmenich Cut to Sell at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 82 euros (+)

* FinecoBank Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 25.70 euros
* Elmera Group ASA Cut to Sell at Norne Securities; PT 47 kroner

* Gap Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $23 Porsche SE PT Cut to 26.25 euros from 35 euros at Barclays

* Greggs Cut to Neutral at Davy; PT 1,800 pence (+)

* Hoegh Autoliners Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 175 kroner

* Mediobanca Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 28.20 euros

* Merlin Properties Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (++)

* Novo Nordisk Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 305 kroner

* Novo Nordisk ADRs Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $47

* On Holding PT Cut to $40 from $48 at Truist Secs

* On Holding PT Cut to $20 from $24 at Jefferies

* On Holding Cut to Market Perform at William Blair

* On Holding PT Cut to $32 from $38 at Williams Trading

* Pet Valu Cut to Market Perform at Raymond James; PT C$23

* Robertet Raised to Buy at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 900 euros

* Sensorion Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen (+)

* Shurgard Cut to Hold at KBC Securities; PT 25 euros (+)

* Solar Foods Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 6 euros

* Syensqo Cut to Hold at Equita; PT 82 euros (+)

* Tesco Cut to Hold at Shore Capital

* Wizz Air Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 800 pence

>>> Initiation

* AFRY Reinstated Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 100 kronor (++)

* Allwyn AG Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley

* Frontline PLC Reinstated Hold at Norne Securities; PT $41.07

* Genmab ADRs Rated New Outperform at BNP Paribas; PT $40

* Hilton Worldwide Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $370

* Hochtief Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 477 euros (+)

* Marriott Intl Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $410
* Nederman Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 180 kronor

* Raspberry PI Rated New Hold at Berenberg; PT 670 pence

* Svedbergs Group Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 75 kronor

* Sweco Rated New Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 133 kronor (++)

>>> Call

* Akzo Nobel, Arkema Raised at Barclays Amid Wider Sector Caution (+)

* Clariant Raised to Buy at Berenberg as Litigation Risk Eases

* DiaSorin Downgraded to Sell at UBS With Target Cut to Street-Low (+)
* MOL Upgraded at Citi on Positive Macro Conditions, M&A Boost

* Novo Nordisk Cut to Hold From Buy at Berenberg on 2H Hurdles (+)

* Raspberry Pi Initiated Hold at Berenberg as Costs Temper Growth (+)

* SBM Offshore a Vital Cog in Offshore Industry, Barclays Upgrades

* Tesco Downgraded to Hold at Shore Capital ‘to Pause for Breath’

* Wizz Air Cut at Morgan Stanley on Softer Pricing, Prefer Ryanair

* Zehnder Shares Advance After Kepler Cheuvreux Upgrades to Buy (++)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up:
- HYLN +22.4%, CRWV +18.4%, VELO +17.6%, EROC +15.5%, HRB +13.7%, CAVA +13.3%, NRGV +12.6%, ATRO +12.3%, LENZ +12.1%, GLBE +10.6%, MGNX +10.5%, AII +9%, SMCI +8.9%, SND +8.8%, LITE +8%, AADX +6.8%, FRMI +4.4%, TE +3.5%, FLY +3.3%, AIOT +2.6%, ALM +2.3%, BGS +2.3%, EYE +1.9%, ORCL +1.7%, APEI +1.7%, SVRA +1.6%, MATW +1.5%, SCOR +1.5%, HY +1.4%, CCS +1.2%, HIVE +1.1%, SPCX +0.8%
Gapping down:
- NCMI -18.7%, FOCL -17.1%, UAMY -15%, SVV -11.9%, ABSI -8.1%, BORR -8%, BETA -7.4%, LQDA -6.9%, ABCL -6.5%, TSHA -6.1%, ANNX -5.9%, AURA -4.2%, OPLN -2.7%, AVR -2.6%, KYTX -2.1%, NFG -2%, SMR -1.9%, SLN -1.8%, QUIK -1.8%, KRC -1.5%, AMCR -1.1%, FNV -1%

The Information : New Israeli Fund Gets an Early Exit; $1 Billion for Anton Levy

New Israeli Fund Gets an Early Exit; $1 Billion for Anton Levy’s New Fund

Software dealmaking is so hot in Israel right now that an Israeli VC fund notched its first exit before it had even wrapped up fundraising.

Team8, which just raised $365 million to back seed and Series A companies, co-led a $48 million fundraise for Tel Aviv-based Koi late last year out of a new $265 million fund for seed and Series A startups. In April Koi, whose software aims to prevent risks from AI agents, sold to Palo Alto Networks for about $400 million.

Exits like Koi helped the firm’s managing partners, who include Sarit Firon and Liran Grinberg, raise the firm’s latest fund alongside a new $100 million vehicle for follow-on investments.

The 12-year-old firm’s limited partners—pension funds, funds of funds and family offices across the U.S. and Europe—are increasingly looking for “the best bets to make in the Israeli market” given the brisk pace of dealmaking overseas, Firon said in an interview.

The $265 million fund primarily focuses on cybersecurity, software infrastructure, fintech and digital health startups started by Israeli founders. The fund aims to lead and co-lead rounds with $5 million to $15 million checks, the pair said. Team8 manages almost $2 billion in assets across eight funds, investing in early-stage companies as well as helping incubate new ones.

It’s one of several new funds targeting Israeli entrepreneurs after landmark acquisitions of Israeli-founded startups, including Google’s $32 billion buyout of Wiz and ServiceNow’s $7.75 billion takeover of Armis. These include hardware focused Deep33 Ventures and new early stage firm SkyBeam Venture Partners. Meanwhile, Wiz-backer Cyberstarts is planning to raise a new seed fund after raising a $380 million fund for mature startups last year, we reported in June.

“Predicting or building technologies is not necessarily the hardest thing today,” Grinberg said. “But understanding the enterprise context and the demand and the challenges that enterprises face is the thing that founders are in need of the most.”

Grinberg co-founded the firm after serving in the cyber and data division of Unit 8200, the intelligence agency of the Israeli Defense Forces, and previously worked at fintech startup eToro.

Firon previously worked at Israeli VC firm Cerca Partners, after working at P-Cube, a provider of Internet protocol platforms that was acquired by Cisco in 2004, and serving as the chief financial officer at MediaMind, which was acquired by Digital Generation in 2011.

The Information : Kalshi Tops $4 Billion In Annualized Revenue as it Seeks $40 B

Kalshi Tops $4 Billion In Annualized Revenue as it Seeks $40 Billion Valuation

The Takeaway

Kalshi seeks $40 billion valuation after annualized revenue doubled to $4 billion
High marketing spend drives $300 million in June operating expense
Prediction market faces state lawsuits over illegal gambling claims.

World Cup wagers helped double Kalshi’s revenue to a more than $4 billion annualized rate in July, from a pace of over $2 billion two months earlier, a person familiar with the matter said.

That growth is set to drive another jump in the prediction market’s valuation. Kalshi is in advanced talks to raise new funding at a $40 billion valuation, the person said, nearly double its valuation in a funding round announced in May. One potential wrinkle: Kalshi has been spending heavily to capture bettors’ attention and faces potential new expenses in the form of taxes in some of its biggest markets.

Kalshi’s operating expenses totaled $300 million for the month of June, mostly due to marketing spending, the person said. If Kalshi maintains its pace of spending, that could imply $3.6 billion operating expenses on an annualized basis. The marketing blitz included advertising campaigns featuring Timothée Chalamet and Lionel Messi, and a FIFA World Cup 2026 sponsorship deal it nabbed midway through the event for ads in stadiums, on TV and online.

The Financial Times had reported in June that Kalshi was exploring a new round at a $40 billion valuation, which it could complete as soon as the third quarter. Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana declined to comment.

If that happens, Kalshi’s private valuation would top the market capitalization of crypto exchange Coinbase and would compare with trading app Robinhood’s market cap of around $85 billion. Robinhood has recently evolved into a competitor to Kalshi, with more of its revenue coming from trading event contracts than from stocks or crypto.

Robinhood has shifted some of its prediction market orders away from Kalshi to Rothera, a joint venture exchange between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group. Robinhood orders made up only 17.5% of Kalshi’s trading volume in the second quarter this year, down from nearly 50% in the same period last year, according to data from Artemis.

Kalshi has been raising money in rapid-fire rounds, including $1 billion in fresh cash from its May funding round led by Coatue, which followed another $1 billion raised at the end of 2025 at an $11 billion valuation. Kalshi’s rapid growth, fueled mainly by sports betting, has prompted the company to hold informal conversations with bankers about an initial public offering as soon as next year.

Polymarket, Kalshi’s smaller rival, has meanwhile been in talks to raise about $1 billion at $20 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported last week.

Kalshi generates revenue mainly from fees charged on trading activity. With the popularity of event contracts attracting competition from Robinhood as well as apps like DraftKings, marketing is likely to remain a key battleground.

Growth in sports betting on prediction markets is meanwhile drawing pushback from traditional gambling apps as well as state gaming regulators. Kalshi is embroiled in several legal battles with state regulators who allege it offers illegal gambling. Sports contracts make up over 80% of the company’s trading volume.

New York state, for example, sued Kalshi last month for running an illegal gambling operation, seeking a court order to stop it from operating without licenses from the New York State Gaming Commission and to force it to forfeit its gains. Kalshi has said that it is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and state regulators have no power to shut down a federally licensed exchange. The CFTC has sided with Kalshi and directed Kalshi to continue its operations under the agency’s emergency authority to “ensure market stability.”

Kalshi in recent weeks has focused in part on promoting bets on real-world events other than sports, including launching contracts on drug trial results and GPU compute prices. At the same time, the company is trying to attract big corporate users, pitching the contracts as a way for companies to hedge against outcomes that affect their businesses.

One possible resolution to Kalshi’s battle with states could involve the prediction market paying taxes, similar to those imposed on gambling companies. That would eat into Kalshi’s profits, but it would prevent an outright ban on prediction market offerings.

North Carolina, for example, last month passed a law to charge a 6% tax on prediction markets’ net trading fee revenue generated in the state, allowing them to do business under their CFTC licenses. Kentucky also enacted a new tax on prediction markets, but a coalition that includes Kalshi and Polymarket filed a lawsuit to block it.

Ahead of New York’s lawsuit, Kalshi had proposed paying a tax that would potentially generate billions in revenue for the state over the next five years, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The company also has faced questions about its benchmarks for settling bets and the potential for market manipulation by users. FlightAware sued Kalshi this week, saying that the prediction market used its flight-tracking data without the company’s permission and that flight-delay contracts could encourage consumers to try to disrupt flights.

(BN) Hong Kong Says Tax Break Plans Won’t Include Prop Trading Firms

WSJ : Wealth Management Has a $3 Trillion Problem: Investors Are Keeping Too Muc

Wealth Management Has a $3 Trillion Problem: Investors Are Keeping Too Much Cash

Advisers are pitching bonds and other investments, but many prefer to keep cash in money-market funds

Since Don Ross retired as an airline pilot a decade ago, all the financial planners he has spoken with have wanted him to invest his cash. He isn’t sold.

He is keeping 85% of his portfolio in stocks and the rest in a money-market fund yielding 3.62%. Ross looked at historical bear markets and determined they typically don’t last longer than three years. He keeps enough of his portfolio in cash to comfortably get himself through that period, and he sells stocks when he needs to replenish his cash pile.

The financial planners have suggested bond funds, but to the 75-year-old, “there couldn’t be a worse stream of income.”

He is among the investors giving headaches to the money managers who want them to part way with their cash. Individual investors are sitting on a mountain of it. There is over $3 trillion in retail money-market funds, hovering around a record high, according to the Investment Company Institute. (And that doesn’t include the trillions of institutional dollars sitting in money-market funds.)

Assets flooded into these funds in 2022 when the Federal Reserve ended its policy of near-zero interest rates. Money-market yields rose above 5%. Rates have since fallen, but money-market funds, which now yield 3.49% on average, according to Crane Data, have retained their appeal.

Now wealth and asset managers, eager to prove their worth and in many cases earn more fees, are trying to convince investors to put it to work. Search for the phrase “too much cash” and you will find numerous articles penned by the likes of JPMorgan Chase and Charles Schwab, warning about the risk of being underinvested.

The risk, they argue, is that the yield on cash won’t keep pace with inflation. Money-market yields are currently right about at the rate of inflation. Many advisers are pitching alternatives, including corporate bonds, municipal bonds and more exotic offerings such as buffer exchange-traded funds and private credit.

“I think 2022 kind of warped people’s perception,” said David Royal, chief financial and investment officer at Thrivent. It was an unusual time when investors lost money in both the stock market and on bonds, he said. “People have forgotten the important diversification benefit that comes with duration.”

Buying longer duration bonds allows investors to secure current yields for an extended period and protect against future interest rate drops. By contrast, money-market funds, high-yield savings accounts and certificates of deposit are likely to drop their yields along with going rates.

Royal recommends investors consider locking in historically high yields in investment-grade corporate bonds by building a ladder of investments with staggered maturities. A flood of new issuance from hyperscalers raising money to fund the artificial-intelligence build-out has pushed up yields. That has led some to worry about the risks, especially to longer-duration bonds.

But even transferring cash to an ultrashort bond fund could deliver a higher yield than a money-market fund, Royal said.

Royal said he also likes high-quality municipal-bond funds. These yield around 4%, are typically exempt from federal income taxes and can also be exempt from state income taxes. States are generally required to have balanced budgets, making them an attractive option for investors concerned about owning U.S. Treasury bonds because of the country’s widening deficit, Royal said.

Todd Stankiewicz, chief investment officer of wealth manager Sykon Capital, said he devotes a significant amount of time to getting clients to consider alternatives to cash amid lackluster bond performance.

“If you’re a wealth manager, how do you tell someone who is 65 years old to go all equities?” he said.

Stankiewicz has recommended buffer ETFs, which use options strategies to protect against market downside but also cap the amount of upside an investor can earn. They typically operate over a specific time frame, such as 12 months. For example, Innovator Capital Management has an August offering with an 8.37% cap on the upside but 100% downside protection, according to its website.

Such funds are more expensive than a typical ETF—0.79% to 0.89%. But Stankiewicz argues that they are cheaper than buying a structured note from a bank, offering the equivalent protection. He creates a buffer ETF ladder with staggered reset dates and maturities.

Still, he acknowledged, if the stock market underperforms the yield on a money-market fund, investors would have been better off staying put.

Ross, the former airline pilot, says he is wary of complex investments with high fees. He also doesn’t like bonds, noting that the 10-year annualized return on Vanguard’s total bond market ETF is just over 1%.

He recently started working with a new financial adviser who asked if he was interested in investing in private credit. Ross requested she stick to estate planning and leave the investing to him.

“When I look at somebody saying, ‘you need to get back into the market,’ the first thing I’m asking is: Why are they saying that?” he said.

WSJ : Vibe-Coding Startup Lovable Hits $13 Billion Valuation New funding round c

Vibe-Coding Startup Lovable Hits $13 Billion Valuation

New funding round catapults AI company into the ranks of Europe’s most valuable startups

Artificial-intelligence startup Lovable raised $400 million in a new funding round that values the company at $13.3 billion.
The funding round was co-led by Silicon Valley investor Menlo Ventures and the European Commission’s Scaleup Europe Fund.
Lovable plans to use the capital to expand its workforce by 50% to 450 employees this year and fuel growth in regions such as Latin America.

Artificial-intelligence startup Lovable has raised fresh funds at a $13.3 billion valuation, highlighting investor enthusiasm for vibe-coding tools.

Launched in November 2024, the Stockholm-based company’s AI platform allows users to create software and web applications using simple, everyday language.

Lovable raised $400 million in the new fundraising, the company and its investors said. The deal values Lovable at more than double the $6.6 billion level it achieved in December, and catapults the business into the ranks of Europe’s most valuable startups.

The funding round was co-led by Silicon Valley investor Menlo Ventures and the European Commission’s newly created Scaleup Europe Fund—a vehicle overseen by Swedish asset manager EQT that aims to support the region’s startups.

Other backers include Balderton Capital, World Innovation Lab and China’s Tencent.

Lovable plans to use the money to fund expansion. The company aims to grow its workforce by 50% to 450 this year across its offices in Europe and the U.S., as well as fuel growth in regions such as Latin America. It is also working to add more security features and improve reliability.

Lovable’s platform can be used to develop tools for a range of business functions, including managing human resources, sales and finance departments. Some startup founders now run their entire businesses on software built with Lovable, said Anton Osika, the company’s chief executive and co-founder.

The startup is on track to generate a revenue run rate—a figure commonly used by startups that forecasts annual revenue based on short-term sales—of close to $600 million by the end of this month. That is nearly triple the level it disclosed in December. The company has previously been profitable but is now focused on investing in its product and growth, Osika said.

Clients include chip company Nvidia, which uses the platform to develop customized software for its team leaders to keep track of projects and ensure they are delivered on time. Other corporate users include sportswear company Adidas, publisher Hearst and software-as-a-service provider Zendesk.

The growing use of AI to develop in-house apps has raised investor concerns that products developed by business-software companies could become obsolete in a so-called “SaaSpocalypse.”

Despite using Lovable itself, helpdesk software provider Zendesk doesn’t see it as a threat. “Lovable can’t provide the level of reliability at scale” to manage customer requests across different channels, said Jorge Luthe, a senior director of product.

Lovable operates in a competitive environment. Rivals include California-based Replit, which achieved a $9 billion valuation in a March funding round—triple the level it hit six months prior.

Following the latest fundraising, Lovable will be Menlo’s largest single investment after Anthropic—“a testament to how bullish we are on Lovable’s outlook,” said Matt Murphy, one of the firm’s partners.

For the EQT-managed Scaleup Europe Fund, the investment will be an early test of the fund’s ability to not only support the region’s startups but persuade them to resist moving to the U.S. as they grow.

If startups like Lovable end up being backed predominantly by U.S. investors, “the shift towards relocating headquarters or listing in the U.S. becomes powerful,” undermining development of cutting edge technology in Europe, said EQT partner Victor Englesson.

(BN) Tencent Sales Top Estimates on WeChat Ad Surge, Resilient Games

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of Aug 2026 V2(+)