Barron's : Inside Poland’s Push to Become Europe’s Next AI Powerhouse

Inside Poland’s Push to Become Europe’s Next AI Powerhouse

  • Poland is experiencing an artificial-intelligence boom thanks in part to U.S. hyperscaler investments.
  • The Polish government aims to increase venture capital investments in the domestic AI sector by 50% by 2030.
  • U.S. tech giants Microsoft, Google and Amazon are investing billions of dollars to expand cloud and AI infrastructure in Poland.

Polish entrepreneur Piotr Surma once questioned whether he should move his AI start-up from Warsaw to Silicon Valley. Not anymore.

An artificial-intelligence boom is under way in Poland, and Surma isn’t the only one placing bets on it. As American hyperscalers pump money into AI infrastructure in Poland and people ditch jobs in the U.S. to return to their home country, investors will see more opportunities arise in what might be Europe’s next AI powerhouse.

“We see people coming from Silicon Valley back to Poland,” Surma says, founder and CEO of Warsaw-based Ingenix.ai, a biotech and AI start-up. His company has poached employees who had left Poland to work in the U.S., and now he gets job applications from workers with AI degrees and product experience at big tech companies.

It isn’t just the private sector leading the charge. The Polish government has outlined several AI priorities, including targeting a 50% increase in venture capital investments in the AI sector by 2030, and pushing its position as the “Heart of the AI Continent” through business innovation and investment. A government policy memo June 2025 on AI policy contends that “Poland will emerge on the international stage as a significant exporter of safe and trustworthy AI products and services.”

Last year, Poland surpassed the $1 trillion milestone in annual output in 2025, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. It currently ranks as the world’s 21st largest economy, just behind Switzerland, according to the International Monetary Fund.

AI could give the economy its next big boost. According to a June report from the World Bank, AI could increase Poland’s real gross domestic product by up to 12.1% in the next five to 10 years. The gains, however, would likely come from productivity rather than technological breakthroughs. Already, Poland is home to Beyond.pl, Central and Eastern Europe’s first locally-owned AI infrastructure, housed in Poznań and powered by Nvidia computing hardware.

A government agency known as KRiBSI oversees the AI boom by offering local regulations to support projects. Warsaw in late July committed over $106 million in a bid to host one of the EU’s new AI gigafactories.

U.S. companies continue to place bets on AI momentum, too, as demand surges in Poland and Europe more broadly for cloud infrastructure and tech among companies there.

Microsoft has spent $1.7 billion to expand cloud and AI infrastructure in Poland, launching the country’s first hyperscaler data center near Warsaw in 2023.

“I’m very confident that Poland has everything to become a European AI hub,” Iwona Szylar, Microsoft Poland’s general manager, said in an interview.

Alphabet’s Google signed an agreement in February 2025 with the Polish government to speed up the adoption of AI. And just in May, Amazon.com announced in May that it would invest over $5 billion between 2026 and 2028 in Poland, including in building a new AI-driven smart warehouse.

Still, its AI market is small compared with leading markets: Poland is home to 112 data centers compared with 4,767 in the U.S., and 2,983 in Western Europe, according to Data Center Map, a global online directory and research tool.

But things are changing rapidly. Filip Vurdelja, a New York-based investor who previously worked at BlackRock, returns to his native Poland every few months. Advancements are more pronounced with each visit, he said in an interview. After spending nearly four years as a partner in an early-stage tech firm in New York, Vurdelja launched his own venture-capital firm—called AGX—to invest in Polish start-ups that are rooted in advanced engineering or scientific research.

“Once you come here, you realize that Poland—and Warsaw in particular—is one big construction place,” he says. “Everywhere you look there’s a new building being built. The infrastructure buildup is very tangible.”

Meanwhile, the younger generation is being educated on coding and tech skills, and a new wave of Polish teenagers—sometimes still in high school—are building their own start-ups, according to Vurdelja.

Poles who return after working for overseas tech companies are also bringing unique skill sets and experiences with product management. Microsoft’s Szylar, who is originally from Poland, followed the same path as many of her peers, returning last year after spending years living in Asia and Australia.

This is all good news for investors looking for emerging AI markets like Poland. “The opportunities for investors are really, really ripe, and the market is significantly less crowded out than in other places like the United States or the Middle East,” Pablo Rasmussen, a director at geopolitical consulting firm Brzezinski Global Strategies, said in an interview.

Poland’s public markets haven’t caught up to the AI boom yet, since most of the companies are private. The Warsaw Stock Exchange, also known as WIG, is trailing behind South Korea and Taiwan, two countries that are also boosting local AI capabilities. But South Korea and Taiwan markets are dominated by AI companies. The WIG is up 30% so far this year, compared with 62% for the KOSPI, and a 14% gain for the S&P 500.

U.S. investors can get broad exposure to Polish stocks through the iShares MSCI Poland exchange-traded fund, which is the country’s only pureplay U.S.-listed ETF. Among the companies in the ETF, which is passively managed, is PKO Bank Polski, Orlen, the largest energy and oil company in Central and Eastern Europe, and Bank Pekao. Allegro, an online e-commerce platform, was the WIG’s largest-ever IPO in 2020.

“We observe a huge appetite from both public and private sectors when it comes to adoption of emerging technologies,” Microsoft’s Szylar says. “We already see world-class examples of AI adoption in Poland, specifically in the financial sector and in the energy sector.”

Brzezinski Global’s Rasmussen says there may be opportunities for investors to get in on the boom through supply chains, including construction company Budimex, which has plans to own and operate data centers in Poland.

Investors should keep an eye on AI start-ups that could go public in the next five to 10 years. Some of the biggest names include ElevenLabs, an AI audio company with a majority American customer base; Nomagic, which builds robots to automate warehouse tasks, and Synerise, an AI platform to track behavioral data.

Of course, there are risks. The World Bank warns that Poland has structural constraints that limit the “scale, speed, and inclusiveness” of AI. Adoption rates also need to rise—only 8% of Polish businesses use AI.

“The challenge is not access to AI,” says Ary Naïm, World Bank Group Country Manager for Poland. “It is using the technology productively—mobilizing investment in infrastructure and skills that underpin future growth, from digital networks to energy, water, and education.”

But expectations remain high. “There’s really not many other places that present better opportunities to build right now than Poland,” Vurdelja says. “Poland’s success has gone unnoticed for so many years.”

Barron's : The Hidden Red Flag in Wall Street’s Price Targets Nvidia and other t

The Hidden Red Flag in Wall Street’s Price Targets
Nvidia and other tech stocks have a wide “dispersion” of price targets. Why that could be a problem for investors.

  • A Barron’s analysis found that the S&P 500 is experiencing its highest level of analyst price target dispersion in a decade.
  • The average gap between the highest and lowest analyst price targets for the S&P 500 stands at 62.5% of the consensus target.
  • A study co-authored by Frank Zhang found that stocks with highly dispersed targets have historically delivered weaker returns.

Nvidia may no longer be the hottest artificial-intelligence trade, but Wall Street analysts are still fans. Among dozens of analysts tracked by FactSet, the average price target is $314, about 43% above recent prices around $219, according to consensus estimates.

But Nvidia’s average price target obscures the fact that there’s wide disagreement on the stock’s fair value, ranging from a low of $180 to a high of $743.

That disparity isn’t unique to Nvidia: It’s a broader market phenomenon, and it has implications for investors. The S&P 500 index is seeing its highest level of price target dispersion—a measure of disagreement among analysts on a stock’s value—in a decade, a Barron’s analysis found.

Historic Disagreement
Price target dispersion across the S&P 500 index is at a decade high. In the tech sector, the highest price target for a stock is triple the lowest price target on average. Utilities have the lowest dispersion of any sector.


The average gap between analysts’ highest and lowest price targets now stands at 62.5% of the consensus target. For a stock with a $100 target, for instance, the spread between the highest and lowest forecasts would be $62.50—roughly $131 on the high end and $69 on the low end.

The S&P 500’s 62.5% dispersion is well above the average of 43% since 2016.

Much of the S&P 500’s dispersion is in tech, led by companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Broadcom. Dispersion for those stocks is well above average since the start of the year.

But this isn’t just an AI story. On an equal-weighted basis, the S&P 500 had one of the highest dispersion levels in July of any month over the past decade. The typical S&P 500 stock had a dispersion of 44% in July, about four percentage points higher than average.

High dispersion can be a red flag. A 2024 study by researchers at the Yale School of Management and Indiana University found that consensus price targets become less reliable when analysts strongly disagree. Stocks with highly dispersed targets have historically delivered weaker returns, even when the average looks attractive.

That finding could be the basis for a trading strategy, says Frank Zhang, an accounting professor at Yale who co-authored the research. By shorting (betting against) stocks with high dispersion and owning stocks with low dispersion, a hypothetical portfolio generated an 11% annualized return from 1999 to 2020. That increased to a 19%-28% risk-adjusted return when using monthly rebalancing.

Dispersion can stem from real differences in opinion—or from analysts’ incentives. Some analysts genuinely disagree on a stock’s value, while others hold off on cutting price targets to maintain good relationships with the companies they cover.

High dispersion may also reflect the fact that consensus targets don’t immediately incorporate changing views on a stock. Consider the case of Paycom Software, a payroll and human-resource software provider.


Consensus estimates that may be artificially high can also have a snowball effect, pushing stocks into even more overvalued territory.

When analysts are sharply divided, investors who agree with the bullish forecasts can readily buy shares and push the price higher. But investors who think the stock is overvalued face greater costs and constraints when shorting, or betting against it. That imbalance can give the bullish view more influence on the stock’s price, helping to explain why highly dispersed stocks are prone to overvaluation.

Some sectors don’t have high dispersion. Utilities and financials are relatively low, reflecting more agreement in their stock values.

Tracking dispersion isn’t easy. It’s rarely used as an investment indicator, and brokerage platforms typically don’t provide it.

Zhang and his co-authors calculate dispersion using every individual analyst target for a stock. Most investors don’t have access to that level of detail. Zhang says a practical proxy is to compare the spread between the highest and lowest targets relative to consensus. The wider the spread, the greater the disagreement among analysts.

As a general rule, Zhang says dispersion levels above 30% start to raise red flags. In July, the 10 least divided stocks in the S&P 500 had dispersion levels of 7% to 13%. Dispersion among the most divided stocks ranged from 117% to 273%.


Since the start of the year, the typical stock in the least divided group returned 16% through the end of July, and all 10 stocks rose over that time. Within the most divided group, the typical stock declined 10%.

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Trading on dispersion remains a niche approach, but some strategists argue it can be fruitful.

Jack Gang, a former quantitative trading researcher and founder of the Alpha Engine Report, developed a strategy based on his own formula, which favors recent price targets while penalizing stale ones. In back tests against the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, Gang says his strategy delivered returns of 17% to 20% a year, compared with the 10% to 12% returns from major indexes.

Gang says his approach doesn’t require shorting stocks. It’s fundamentally a “value strategy,” he says. The hitch: While the strategy may outperform, it does so with slightly more volatility than passive index investing.

Methodology for S&P 500 Dispersion Data
For each company each month, dispersion is the difference between the highest and lowest analyst price target, divided by the consensus target: (High − Low) ÷ Consensus.

Index membership is set annually. Each year uses that year’s list of S&P 500 constituents, so the history isn’t distorted by which companies happen to be in the index today. Averages are weighted by index weight, not by company count. Each company’s dispersion counts in proportion to its share of the S&P 500, so the figures describe the index as investors actually hold it rather than the typical constituent.

The 10 most- and least-divided companies are ranked on the most recent month’s reading, ignoring whether the disagreement is new or longstanding.

>>> Barron's WeekEnd Summary

Cover:
-Vanguard has grown from $9T to $13T in assets since Salim Ramji became CEO in 2024, while its flagship S&P 500 ETF recently became the first ETF to cross $1T. Having conquered passive investing, Ramji now wants to apply Vanguard’s low-cost model to cash savings, financial advice and active fixed income. It has launched 25 fixed-income ETFs since 2024 and attracted more than 500,000 customers to Cash Plus. The challenge is preserving Vanguard’s famously thin fees while technology and service costs rise, and avoiding mission drift as it cautiously ventures into private markets.

CEO Interview:
-Salim Ramji, the former BlackRock executive who became Vanguard’s first outside CEO in 2024, says the firm’s next phase will extend Jack Bogle’s low-cost philosophy beyond index funds. Vanguard is now effectively neck-and-neck with BlackRock in ETFs, with roughly $4.7T apiece, and Ramji sees substantial room in advice, cash management and bonds. His task is unusual: finding new sources of growth without turning Vanguard into the kind of high-fee financial conglomerate its founder spent decades attacking.

Tech Trader:
-The AI boom is entering an extraordinary financing phase. Five Big Tech companies already have roughly $2.7T of future commitments, while another $500B in AI data-center financing emerged in just the past week, much of it centered on Nvidia; Intel, meanwhile, is raising $20B in equity. Adam Levine sees two very different problems: Nvidia must sustain explosive growth and a roughly 75% gross margin as enormous capacity comes online, while Intel needs capital simply to remain competitive. The numbers increasingly make AI as much a financing and return-on-capital story as a technology story.

The Trader:
-Wall Street keeps climbing despite an increasingly uncomfortable collection of warning signals. The S&P 500 is approaching 8,000 and market breadth has improved, but long-term Treasury yields are flashing inflation concerns, oil is near $90 after the Iran war, employment is weakening and consumers remain gloomy. Barron’s sees no immediate reason the rally must end, particularly with earnings strong, but argues that bond markets, government debt, geopolitical risk and uncertainty over Kevin Warsh’s Fed are creating a much darker backdrop than buoyant equity indexes imply.
-Yeti plunged 12% despite beating earnings expectations and raising its full-year outlook, creating what Barron’s sees as a potential buying opportunity. Adjusted EPS of $0.67 beat the $0.54 consensus and expected full-year earnings growth rose to 19%-21%; U.S. drinkware remains weak, but cooler sales increased 16% and international sales 19%. At roughly 14 times earnings versus about 23 for its sector, the stock looks inexpensive if overseas expansion offsets domestic weakness. Analysts’ average target around $54 implies roughly 23% upside, while Jefferies sees considerably more.

Features:
-Uber has been marked down largely because investors fear autonomous vehicles will eventually undermine its ride-hailing franchise, but Barron’s thinks the market is getting ahead of itself. Robotaxis still represent only about 1% of U.S. rides, while Uber’s enormous customer and driver network gives autonomous operators a ready-made distribution platform rather than merely a competitor. Bill Ackman argues the valuation has become increasingly detached from the underlying business. Barron’s conclusion is straightforward: the AV threat is real, but already sufficiently discounted to make the shares attractive.
-The promised productivity revolution from AI still hasn’t shown up across corporate America. Since ChatGPT’s arrival, net margins for the giant technology companies have risen from roughly 15% to 25%, but margins for the other 493 S&P 500 companies remain stuck near 10%. Apollo economist Torsten Slok argues the next two years are critical: investors are pricing in widespread AI productivity gains by around 2028, yet healthcare, energy, consumer staples and other industries have little margin improvement to show for their spending. Failure to deliver would challenge one of the central assumptions supporting today’s AI valuations.

European Trader:
-Europe’s stock rally is proving surprisingly resilient even as extreme heat creates a new economic risk. Paris, Frankfurt, Madrid and Milan have all reached records in August, but Barron’s warns that persistent heat and drought produce stagflation, simultaneously reducing productivity and raising energy, transport and infrastructure costs. Southern Europe is particularly exposed, with Italy, Spain and Greece potentially losing as much as 1% of GDP annually if recent conditions persist, while low Rhine water levels threaten German industrial supply chains. Adaptation creates winners, however: electricity grids, cooling systems and water infrastructure should attract heavy investment, potentially benefiting National Grid, Engie and United Utilities.

Emerging Markets:
-China’s record $1.2T trade surplus is producing an awkward side effect for Beijing: some of the money is escaping overseas and helping finance the very AI and technology assets China wants to rival. Authorities are tightening controls on capital outflows as Chinese companies and investors channel export earnings into foreign investments. Barron’s argues the phenomenon exposes a fundamental contradiction in China’s economic model: gigantic trade surpluses accumulate foreign currency that Beijing must either recycle abroad or work increasingly hard to prevent from leaving the domestic financial system.

Commodities:
-Russian and Ukrainian attacks on Black Sea grain infrastructure are again disrupting one of the world’s most important agricultural export corridors, raising risks for wheat and other food commodities. Barron’s says the renewed supply uncertainty puts Archer-Daniels-Midland, Bunge and other agricultural businesses in focus as traders assess whether interruptions become prolonged enough to lift global grain prices. The episode is another reminder that four years into the Ukraine war, Black Sea logistics remain capable of transmitting military developments rapidly into global food markets.

Streetwise:
-Jack Hough thinks BJ’s Wholesale Club deserves more respect from both shoppers and investors. It lacks Costco’s cult following, but the valuation gap is striking: BJ’s trades at roughly half Costco’s earnings multiple, while still offering a successful membership model and room to improve execution. Gordon Haskett analyst Chuck Grom recently upgraded the shares to Buy, and Barron’s sees a plausible path to roughly 20% upside. BJ’s does not need to become Costco; narrowing even part of the enormous valuation discount could be enough to make the stock work.

Barron's : Brooks, Hoka and Saucony Have Big Plans to Conquer the European Runni

Brooks, Hoka and Saucony Have Big Plans to Conquer the European Running Market
Hoka, Brooks Running and Saucony see expansion plans across the European market as a key component of future growth.

Europe‘s opening more doors as it becomes the next growth frontier for some American running brands that are already a hit with the U.S. consumer.

Hoka, for example, has opened doors in Berlin, Milan, and Chamonix in Southeastern France. Deckers president and chief executive officer Stefano Caroti, who previously told investors that Chamonix is the birthplace of the brand, said “EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) delivered robust wholesale sell-through and another quarterly record [in Q2] for reorders,” while international DTC (direct-to-consumer) continued to generate exception revenue growth across Europe.

Caroti said that while the brand has seen some timing differences in Europe, “the demand continues to be robust across all markets.”

The CEO noted that even though the consumer in Europe is more pressured than its U.S. counterpart due to higher energy prices, “we’re holding our own. And even in times of challenge, what I’ve experienced is consumers gravitate to premium brands and brands that make them feel good. So we anticipate having a great year in Europe.”

At Brooks Running, the company on Wednesday said first half revenue growth was 14 percent, with demand for the performance running brand’s footwear, apparel, and accessories remaining “strong across regions and channels.” The brand’s big revenue growth area was EMEA, where it was up 39 percent for the half.

Brooks CEO Dan Sheridan said the running continues to play an increasingly important role for people around the globe who are prioritizing health and wellness in their lives. “At Brooks, we aim to give runners the very best product and experiences to pursue that. Our first-half results reflect that focus and the incredible work of our teams globally,” Sheridan said.

In terms of individual markets, Brooks “outpaced” the performance running footwear market in France, which grew 11 percent in the second quarter. Brooks also remained No. 1 in Germany in adult performance running footwear priced at a minimum of 90 euros. Data points were based on estimates and retail tracking statistics from Circana.

Brooks also expanded its European presence when it showcased its approach to lifestyle footwear in June during Paris Fashion Week through its RE: Innovation Studio, a space that highlighted the brand’s approach to movement beyond run. Glycerin 12 was reimagined through modern performance innovation, including the brand’s proprietary Loft V3 cushioning and 5D Fit Print upper. And it also featured the reinvention of one of its oldest shoes, the Brooks Vanguard, pairing a low-profile 1970s silhouette with Loft V2 cushioning.

Also growing its European presence is Saucony, one of the two big growth stories — the other is Merrell — under the Wolverine Worldwide Inc. umbrella. Wolverine CEO Chris Hufnagel said Thursday during the company’s second quarter earnings call that revenue at Saucony was up 9 percent. He described the brand as “uniquely positioned” as a challenger brand at the intersection of market performance and lifestyle running, the two fastest growin categories.

Saucony’s global growth story is boosted by its key city strategy, which began in London a few years ago, followed by France. The brand has since expanded to Berlin recently.

Hufnagel also noted that search interest growth rate more than tripled in the U.K., while France grew at an even “significantly faster pace.” And he noted that sell-through trends in EMEA “are also very strong, creating a healthy pull dynamic which we are actively managing to cultivate sustainable growth, focusing on disciplined distribution and segmentation strategies.”

Barron's : Uber Stock Looks Cheap. Here’s Why. Its stock is down, but investors

Uber Stock Looks Cheap. Here’s Why.
Its stock is down, but investors shouldn’t overreact to worries about the autonomous-vehicle business.

  • Wall Street concerns over the disruption threat of autonomous vehicles have depressed the stock value of Uber Technologies.
  • Uber is positioning itself for the robo-taxi market with a $10 billion commitment to deploy 120,000 cars on its network.
  • The company’s second-quarter revenue rose 11% to $14 billion, while adjusted earnings increased 35% to 81 cents a share.

Robo-taxis make up just 1% of U.S. rides. But the disruption threat of autonomous vehicles to Uber Technologies
UBER has become an obsession on Wall Street—and has depressed the value of the company’s stock.

Investors, however, seem to be overreacting to the robo risk—and an apparent fraying in Uber’s relationship with Waymo, the leader in autonomous vehicles. The fact is that Uber remains dominant in ride-hailing, is the market leader in food delivery, and has an autonomous-vehicle strategy that doesn’t rely on Alphabet’s Waymo.

Uber’s stock, now trading around $76, looks appealing at nearly its lowest valuation since going public in 2019.

“Valuation is increasingly disconnected from its fundamentals,” wrote investor Bill Ackman last week in an investor letter, noting that the company’s earnings are expected to rise 35% this year. Uber is one of Ackman’s largest holdings. His firm, Pershing Square, owned over $2 billion of Uber on March 31.

The stock is down 7% year to date, and up 69% since its initial public offering at $45 a share. That’s way below the returns on the S&P 500 index and technology leaders like Apple, Amazon.com, and Alphabet. Uber now trades at about 17 times projected 2027 earnings and for about 12 times expected 2027 free cash flow of $13 billion.

The disruption risk to Uber, which dominates the market for ride-sharing involving drivers, is far off. It’s probably going to take years for robo-taxis to account for a significant share of U.S. rides. They’re now in about seven cities, and will rise to 15 by year end.

The rollout of robo-taxis has been far slower than proponents anticipated. They face technology, regulatory, and political obstacles, plus the reluctance of many Americans to trust driverless cars.

Uber, to be sure, is positioning itself to be a major participant in the robo market even if Waymo, the leader in autonomous vehicles, moves away from its Uber partnership. But it is facing another threat in the form of Tesla
TSLA

+0.68%

and its robo-taxi strategy, which is now in the early stages.

All that aside, there’s a good case to be made for Uber.

Why? Uber amounts to a technology utility that dominates the ride-hailing ecosystem with eight times the revenue of No. 2 Lyft. It takes a cut of the fares paid to drivers and has a growing ad business.

Uber is valued at a discount to both the electric utility sector and S&P 500 index with faster growth. Utilities and the S&P trade for about 20 times next year’s projected earnings.

“The market sentiment and stock market valuation of Uber imply greater robo-taxi roadkill than I think is warranted,” says Mark Mahaney, an analyst at Evercore ISI.

“The market underappreciates the structural advantage of Uber as a massive demand aggregator and underestimates its ability to get robo-taxis into its fleet,” he says.

The company, Mahaney adds, has over 200 million active customers who use its services each month. He has an Outperform rating on Uber and an admittedly ambitious price target of $150 a share.

Mahaney calls Uber a “dislocated high-quality” stock, meaning it’s out of favor with investors. (He puts depressed Netflix and Meta Platforms in the same category.)

Uber’s recent second-quarter earnings report highlighted its still-robust growth. Revenue was up 11%, to $14 billion, and gross bookings rose 22%, to $58 billion—both adjusted for currency—while adjusted earnings rose 35%, to 81 cents a share.

The company guided to similar growth in the third quarter in bookings and adjusted earnings.


Free cash flow totaled $10 billion over the past 12 months and is expected to hit $13 billion in 2027, resulting in an 8% free-cash-flow yield. Uber doesn’t pay a dividend but aims to use half of its free cash flow for stock repurchases.

The company, meanwhile, has an excellent balance sheet, with cash and investments of $27 billion exceeding debt of $11 billion.

But Uber’s stock is in purgatory now, largely because investors await greater clarity on the robo-taxi outlook. The fear: Autonomous vehicles will take off, cutting into traditional driver rides—and that consumers will use the Waymo app to get a car, eroding Uber’s current dominance.

The stock hit a recent low of $65 in late July amid reports that Waymo may end its partnership with Uber in Atlanta and Austin, Texas, next year, figuring it doesn’t need Uber to reach riders.

CEO Dara Khosrowshahi sought to reassure investors about Uber’s growth outlook and robo-taxi position on its recent second-quarter conference call.

He called Waymo a “very very important partner of ours” and that the two continue to operate in Atlanta and Austin. “At the same time, we want to make sure that we’re not dependent on one partner. And we’re absolutely seeing a plethora of newer players in the AV ecosystem.”

Uber has committed $10 billion over the next few years to robo-taxis and plans to deploy 120,000 cars on its network. Its partners, however, aren’t household names, including Nuro, Wayve, and Zoox.

“We believe that AVs will help supplement Uber’s existing human-led supply, leading to superior unit economics and a more favorable consumer experience relative to stand-alone AV fleets,” wrote Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni in a recent client note. He boosted his 12-month price target for Uber to $110 from $100 and reiterated the stock as a top idea, or “Franchise Pick.”

Given that demand for rides varies greatly during the week, heavy on Saturday night and light overnight, it doesn’t make sense to deploy huge numbers of robo-taxis that may sit idle much of the time. That argues for a hybrid model.

Uber is more than just a taxi business. It gets about 55% of its revenue from ride-hailing; 35% from Uber Eats, the industry’s leader in food delivery; and 10% from a freight business. Also: Uber is solidifying its position in global food delivery with its deal last month to purchase Europe’s Delivery Hero for $15 billion, giving it access to new markets.

The value of food delivery is significant.

DoorDash, which competes against the larger Uber Eats, trades for 31 times estimated 2027 earnings, a premium to Uber, because of less perceived disruption risk. If you Value Uber Eats at DoorDash’s price/earnings ratio, then the implied P/E of Uber’s ride-hailing business is even lower than Uber’s overall P/E multiple of 17. That underscores the inexpensive valuation on Uber stock.

The bottom line? Uber probably won’t be dislodged as an industry leader—and its discounted price allows investors to get onboard at a low price.

The Information : An Almighty Algorithm’s Grand Debut

An Almighty Algorithm’s Grand Debut

What’s the best measure of AI’s great proliferation?

Most obviously, we can sum up the enormous amounts of money generated by OpenAI and Anthropic—a task my colleagues at The Information approach with great vigor. We could also look at how the technology has become a top-of-mind issue in Washington. Or we might consider how AI has become a frequent villain of choice in Hollywood—particularly in horror films. With the technology getting so much screen time, good old Michael Myers must be close to firing his agent.

Another indication may be the fact that AI is at the center of a very fine new off-Broadway play, “Disruption,” headlined by film star John David Washington (“Tenet” and “BlacKkKlansman”): Live theater is marvelous, but it takes something powerfully momentous to push it away from its comfort zone of fairy tales and rhapsodic animals. “Disruption” follows “Data,” another off-Broadway production about an algorithm gone amok, from earlier this year and “Maybe Happy Ending,” a Tony-winning musical about a pair of robots who fall in love, from 2024.

No one gets a fully joyful conclusion in “Disruption.” The titular breakthrough comes at the hands of Washington’s tech gazillionaire character, Nick. (And yes, John David really does both sound and look a lot like his father, Denzel.) With a blockbuster IPO behind him, he has hastened onto his next venture—an AI startup—and already has Eric Schmidt on the hook for a $50 million investment. But he wants more and knows what he needs most is tangible proof of his predictive algorithm’s effectiveness in guiding people’s lives—ostensibly toward truest contentment. So Nick allows the AI to begin studying six of his oldest friends unbeknownst to them, of course. Heartbreak and tragedy ensue.

“Disruption,” which runs through the beginning of October, originated in a London production in 2023, receiving a raft of warm reviews. Playwright Andrew Stein deserves credit for a fair amount of prescience: He penned an initial draft back in 2018.

“ChatGPT came out for public use between when our production in London was announced and when rehearsal began,” he recalled. “So we hit this moment where this went from being a sci-fi thing to being a zeitgeist thing.”

In preparing “Disruption” for its London debut, Stein and director Hersh Ellis pored over books written by Ray Kurzweil and Yuval Noah Harari. “I would describe Andrew and myself as ‘AI curious,’” said Ellis. “We’re both people who believe in the power and the potential of what AI can do. And we’re also people who are not naive to what could happen if it goes unchecked.”

Exporting the play to New York, they kept the script mostly unchanged. A larger budget has allowed a significant upgrade to the production values, with seating that looks down at the stage: The fishbowl-like setup provides an intimate observation of the characters, a parallel to the omniscient AI’s own minute inspection of them.

These days Stein relies on AI as a constant resource for research—he and Ellis are at work on a new play about the building of the Panama Canal—but finds it steadily creeping into more of his everyday life. “Sometimes it will say to me something like, ‘Based on what I know about you and your patterns,’ and that’s when I know that, yeah, I’m in deep,” he said.

WSJ : The Rich and Famous Who Can’t Get Into Miami’s Most Exclusive Country Club

The Rich and Famous Who Can’t Get Into Miami’s Most Exclusive Country Club
Jeff Bezos and Jared Kushner have yet to secure membership at the exclusive Indian Creek Country Club


MIAMI—Jeff Bezos and his wife Lauren Sánchez Bezos were special guests in February for the annual dock party at Indian Creek Country Club, where members gathered to meet the famed entrepreneur.

Miami’s nearly century-old, exclusive membership outfit sits in the heart of Indian Creek, a private island brimming with so many ultrawealthy residents it is known as the Billionaire Bunker. The club features a private golf course, a clubhouse modeled on a Mediterranean villa, and a swimming pool with bayfront views of the Miami skyline. Members dressed in white could be seen playing croquet on the lawn overlooking Biscayne Bay that day, attendees said.

Jeff Bezos went to the event hoping to persuade board members to admit him to the club, according to people who attended the event. The Amazon.com founder, one of the world’s wealthiest individuals, owns three properties on Indian Creek island and has spent about $234 million combined to acquire them, public records show.

He worked the scene, engaging in small talk with members, said some of those who engaged with him. A few club members who relocated to South Florida or spend time there lined up to shake Bezos’ hand, including real-estate magnate Richard LeFrak and businessman Eddie Lampert. Yet to gain admission to the country club, Bezos would have to win over the longtime members whose roots often went back generations.

Six months later, Bezos still hasn’t received an invitation to join the club.

Florida has become one of the world’s strongest magnets for the billionaire jet set. Between 2019 and 2023, the Sunshine State swallowed $137 billion in income from out of state movers—nearly four times that of runner-up Texas, according to data from the Internal Revenue Service analyzed by trade association Miami Realtors +RWorld.

When the club was founded in 1929, Miami was just starting to emerge as a real-estate boomtown. Since then, the country club has catered to the blue-blood families who spend time in South Florida and famous residents, such as Julio Iglesias.

Owning a property on the island doesn’t guarantee admission to the country club. And people who live outside the island can still apply for membership. Visiting the island requires an invitation from either a homeowner or a member of the country club. While nonmembers living on the island might have views of the golf course, they cannot play on it without an invitation from a club member.

Indian Creek represents one of South Florida’s major battlefields where the region’s newly minted billionaires are clashing with those of more modest affluence who often trace their Miami roots back generations.

“Most communities you buy a home, you become a member of the club, and this community doesn’t fall in line with that,” said Dina Goldentayer, a real-estate agent who has sold homes on the island. “It’s the most exclusive single-family home community, it’s the most exclusive private members club.”

The club’s six membership committee members determine the nominees. Then the board of directors, consisting of 15 members and led by the country club’s president, former AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson, votes up or down, one member said.

These elder statesmen have witnessed leaders of the world’s tech, finance and real estate businesses flock to South Florida, often attracted by lower taxes. They are taking over its top restaurants and best private schools while gobbling up much of the most desirable waterfront property.

Now, the old guard—many of them retirees—are mounting a last stand against what they often view as billionaire interlopers. They are the gatekeepers for Indian Creek Country Club and don’t offer membership to just anyone who has struck it rich.

The wealth and power of this old guard, by most measures, is astronomical—except when compared with the island’s more recent residents, which include Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, Bezos, the Qatari royal family, and Meta Platforms CEO Mark Zuckerberg. None of them are members of the club.

As a protective measure, the members tried to alter the club’s bylaws to raise the voting percentage required to approve a sale of the club, some members said. It was a tactical maneuver meant to ensure no single tech titan could simply write a billion-dollar check to dissolve their private paradise, but it didn’t pass, these members said.

The roughly 350-member club charges an initiation fee that is close to $1 million and annual dues of about $44,000, people connected to the club said.


Admission to this kingdom on the sea usually requires a long courtship. It starts with sponsorship from two current members, and letters of recommendation from five others. Then applicants need to mingle with existing members to make a good impression. That means showing up to club events, throwing back a drink at cocktail meet-and-greets, and teeing off at the golf course, some members said.

As with many private country clubs, admission often comes down to hitting it off with existing members. And while social status and widespread name recognition can help, they are hardly a guarantee, according to some people connected to the club. In fact, too much wealth or notoriety has become a deterrent, as wealthy new applicants arriving in Florida are learning.

Developers acquired and enlarged the island in the 1920s, with the golf course and clubhouse developed at the center. The home lots were organized in a ring, so each could face both the bay and the William S. Flynn-designed course.

Traditionally, its membership roster included local doctors, real-estate developers, entrepreneurs, attorneys and financiers such as Carl Icahn. Some powerful politicians have also been members, including former U.S. Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker, and sports figures such as basketball coaching legend Rick Pitino.

Beyond the matter of prestige, celebrities and the uber wealthy say they like the country club because of its ironclad security.

Indian Creek Village, which operates independently from the country club, is an entire incorporated municipality with its own legislative powers. The 300-acre island is accessible only by boat or by a single gated bridge and maintains its own private police force. The vast majority of the land belongs to the country club. It is a literal citadel with a natural, crystal-blue moat surrounding it.

For some of the world’s wealthiest people, that kind of security and privacy is priceless. Club member Lampert survived a kidnapping in Greenwich, Conn., in 2003, where he was held for ransom at a motel. He now lives on Indian Creek island behind dense hedges that prevent even his wealthy neighbors from peering into his estate—the only home like that on the island, one club member said. He paid $38.4 million for his property, public records show, setting a record for the most expensive home sale in Miami-Dade County at the time.

Icahn got in early, paying $7.5 million for his Indian Creek mansion in 1997. For the legendary value investor, the island wasn’t a status symbol; it was an undervalued asset. In late 2019, Icahn became the prophet of the modern exodus: He told his employees, pack your bags for Florida.

Certain new homeowners, such as Jersey Mike’s founder Peter Cancro and NFL legend Tom Brady, had no trouble getting into the club, some members said. But others haven’t had it so easy.

Jared and Ivanka Kushner bought 1.26 acres on the island and transformed a Spanish-style mansion into a more modern estate. Mary Anne Shula, the widow of famed Dolphins coach Don Shula, sponsored the couple for club membership, club members said. She hosted a cocktail party at her home on the island to introduce the couple to the club’s board. But when the Kushners hosted a housewarming cocktail party at their own compound, only about half the board showed up, these members said.

While some board members were out of town, the signal still seemed clear: The Kushners weren’t about to get in.

Breaching the country-club gates can sometimes require a hard-won fight, even for a Wall Street blue-chip name. When Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon broached the idea of joining the club, a member organized a petition to keep him out, one member said.

Solomon ultimately secured membership. He mostly keeps to himself and his personal guests, shuttling in and out for golf games, members said, though he still keeps his primary residence in New York.

The Qatari royal family also shares a mansion on the island, and a royal prince has been seen playing golf with Tom Brady.

Dr. Aaron Rollins, a celebrity plastic surgeon who was building a home on the island, got frustrated after four years of failed efforts to receive membership to the club. He put his unfinished estate on the market late last year for $200 million. Four months later, Meta’s Zuckerberg shelled out a record-shattering $170 million to purchase the in-progress fortress.

“I determined after being there for a while that it wasn’t the right place for me to raise a family,” said Dr. Rollins.

Meanwhile, the Kushners are biding their time. Since their initial snub, Jared has taken on the role of unofficial envoy under his father-in-law, President Trump, and brokered backdoor geopolitical talks on global conflicts including between Israelis and Palestinians, as well as Russia and Ukraine, and Iran and the U.S.

But he has also turned his diplomatic skills inward. For a period of time, he took on a role as council member on Indian Creek Village’s governing board. His diplomacy around fixing a busted sewage system might prove to be crucial to gaining club membership, members said.


For years, the island’s obsolete septic systems have been leaking waste into the pristine waters of Biscayne Bay. A new sewage pump station will be built and installed across from Kushner’s home, and the club will allow landscaping on the golf course. A person familiar with the matter said this is a compromise with the club, which owns the golf course.

Meanwhile, the couple have built a relationship with the community attending some of the club’s events, said a person familiar with the matter. Ivanka plays golf with members.

With victories on both the political and social fronts, the social tide is turning. Jared and Ivanka are edging ever closer to club membership, according to a person familiar with the club’s current thinking.

WSJ : Boomers Are Wealthy, Healthy and Driving a Global Travel Boom As older Am

Boomers Are Wealthy, Healthy and Driving a Global Travel Boom
As older Americans hit the road, the travel industry responds with nicer accommodations, easier hikes and luggage delivery

After Jean Chow’s husband and mother died within six months of each other, she needed to get away.

The retired mother and grandmother booked a 21-day tour on a private plane and visited six countries. She rode camels in Egypt, cruised the Nile River and hugged the pillars at Stonehenge. The trip, one of two private-plane trips offered by Road Scholar, cost $93,000. Chow, 69, has booked another private-plane trip to visit six countries in Africa.

“I want to do it now while I’m still able,” says Chow, adding that she is fortunate to be able to afford such trips.

Baby boomers collectively have more wealth than any other living generation, and they are splurging on travel. They are living longer, have more free time and are in better shape than their parents and grandparents. As the first of the boomers hit their 80s, there is also a greater urgency to see as much of the world as they can.

That is reshaping travel on several fronts. This generation, who as young adults hitchhiked across the country and backpacked through Europe, now is going on safaris and hiking in the Serengeti on guided tours that offer “easy” as well as “challenging” options.

Boomers want adventure, but also want nice accommodations, good food, smooth connections and fewer baggage hassles. And while many will splurge on travel, there are also plenty of bargain hunters among their ranks.

David Porter, co-founder with his wife, Carol, of Roaming Boomers Travel Services, said bookings are up 20% this year, with most for cruises on small luxury ships. His biggest question is how to keep up with it.

“Do I need to hire more people? Is this going to slow down at all?” says Porter, who attributes the surge in part to stock-market gains padding boomers’ retirement savings. Many of his clients are what he calls middle-class millionaires—business owners and professionals who have between $1 million and $10 million.

His average booking for all cruises is about $25,000. Higher-end world cruises can top $300,000 for a couple.

Boomers tend to take longer trips and pack more bags—and don’t want to deal with schlepping them through airports and on and off cruises. Many are willing to pay outfits like Luggage Forward $144 to ship a 50-pound bag within the U.S., and $374 to get it from the U.S. to the United Kingdom.

Audrey Kohout, the company’s co-CEO, says its core client is 65 years and older. They value ease and also put a premium on customer service, which is why the company is hiring more people to answer phones. “They don’t want to talk to a bot,” Kohout says.

A recent survey by AARP found that older Americans planned to take four trips in 2026. The biggest spenders are those in their 60s.

The survey also found that, regardless of income, boomers shop for bargains. Many use AI to find the best travel deals and use loyalty discounts.

Mark Dennen, 72, was on a plane every other week for his sales job. He figures he traveled four million miles, while his wife, Susan, cared for their two children. He often told her that when he retired, they would travel together.

They have used almost all of his work-related mileage points on their many trips to Europe, where they cruised down the Rhine, and across the U.S. to visit national parks. They take about four big trips a year, with occasional three-day trips in between to places like Nashville. While they are comfortable, they stick to a monthly budget and put discretionary money aside each month for future trips.

Victor Medina, founder of Palante Wealth Advisors, works with his clients to create buckets of funds, including a “great life” bucket for things like travel. He says clients are increasingly intentional about travel, weighing which trips are worth taking.

“If I have a certain number of trips left in me, which ones matter and how can I maximize that experience,” he says. Rather than spend a week in a nice hotel in Europe, they book an Airbnb in a more remote area to immerse themselves in a country and culture.

Leanne and Leon Ryland say their financial adviser urged them to see the world. “You did the right things. You saved. You paid off loans. You’ve got the money,” Leanne recalls.

They took his advice and retired in their mid-50s. In the six years since, the couple has visited every continent, the Great Wall of China, Machu Picchu and all of Disney’s parks around the world. Next year’s plans include Vietnam, Morocco and Portugal.

The Rylands, who live in Australia and never bought a new car until they retired, travel 20 weeks a year and spend an average of $40,000 annually. They want to keep traveling as long as they are able, and stretch their budgets by finding airfare deals, staying in midrange hotels and using carry-on luggage.

Leanne, 61, shares tips with fellow retirees on her Facebook page, SKIClub, which stands for “spending kids inheritance.”

Plenty of boomers are happy to indulge. For them, Road Scholar now offers stays in four- and five-star hotels on some trips.

“Boomers have really changed the way we contract for accommodations,” says James Moses, president of Road Scholar. The nonprofit began 50 years ago as Elderhostel, offering travel and classes to those 60 and older who didn’t mind staying in unused college dorms.

About 80% of Road Scholar travelers are boomers. They are also a big reason Road Scholar began its private-plane trips in 2019, allowing people to see several of the world’s wonders in one trip.

“The boomer ethos is how much time do I have left and what is important to me,” says Moses. “They want to do as much as they can in a reasonable time frame.”

FT : What the Lakers’ $12.5bn sale says about sports ownership Also in today’s n

What the Lakers’ $12.5bn sale says about sports ownership

The Lakers get flipped
Not long ago, the Los Angeles Lakers were the NBA’s version of a mom-and-pop shop, albeit one that had won 18 championships and become arguably America’s most recognised sports brand.

That era ended when Mark Walter, co-founder of Guggenheim Partners, agreed last June to buy a majority stake from longtime owners, the Buss family, at a $10bn valuation. But in a stunning twist less than a year into his ownership, Walter is selling the team to former Disney CEO Bob Iger and venture capitalist Josh Kushner at $12.5bn, which would be the highest price ever paid for a sports team. 

The shock sale, which still requires NBA approval, underscores how sports ownership is changing as valuations soar and teams are no longer treated as vanity assets but legitimate investment vehicles. Billionaire financiers are replacing the previous generation of owners, often families whose wealth was closely tied to their franchise.

Investors like Kushner increasingly see sport as a sector that is resistant to potential disruption from AI. Private capital group Apollo, whose sports arm this week provided $2.6bn of financing to the holding company of the New York Yankees, has previously highlighted growing demand for premium live sport and in-person experiences.

Scoreboard readers are already familiar with Kushner, the brother of Donald Trump’s son-in-law, whose Thrive Eternal fund was to be the lead investor on Fifa’s doomed $20bn commercial vehicle. With the Lakers, Kushner appears to have won his consolation prize.

Meanwhile, Walter is flipping the team for a 25 per cent profit in less than a year. However, context is key: federal prosecutors are probing Walter’s insurance empire over whether it properly disclosed ownership interests in assets connected to his other holdings.

Insurers did not have substantial investments in the Lakers, according to a person familiar with plans at Walter’s TWG Global holding company, but the sale was expected to help the firm raise cash to inject into the insurers.

Walter’s cash crunch raises questions for the rest of his sports portfolio, which includes Chelsea FC and the Los Angeles Dodgers, and whether another sale could be looming. Under Walter’s ownership, the Dodgers have turned into baseball’s juggernaut, its exorbitant payroll fuelling MLB’s labour war as owners push for a salary cap.

For Kushner and Iger, however, acquiring the Lakers would be a coup. The pair were exploring a bid for a potential NBA expansion franchise in Las Vegas, which is expected to generate offers in the $7bn-$10bn range. But rather than buying into the NBA at ground zero, they are set to acquire its crown jewel instead.

>>> GRAHAM ADVISORS | AI INFRA -- THE BAKER CONTRADICTION (QUICK NOTE ATTACHED)

GRAHAM ADVISORS | AI INFRA -- THE BAKER CONTRADICTION (QUICK NOTE ATTACHED)

Gavin Baker (Atreides) gave two irreconcilable AI-financing narratives 11 days apart -- worth 5 minutes before the hyperscaler Q3 prints.

* 04-Aug (Invest Like the Best): buildout is SELF-FUNDING. Compute contracted 50-100% below spot reprices hyperscaler OCF within ~6 months; "~$700bn of credit need disappears". July drawdown = "2022 in a month", zero negative fundamental datapoints.

* 15-Aug (All-In E285): endorses NVDA's $500bn GPU-BACKED CREDIT FACILITY (GS/BX/KKR/APO/BLK) as validation. NVDA US guarantees residuals; lenders bear only ~25% of risk. His top risk flipped to supply: "dark GPUs".

If the buildout self-funds, why the $500bn facility? Only reconciliation credit serves the NON-hyperscaler tier -- i.e. the marginal GPU buyer is
credit-financed. Lucent/Nortel echo, residuals warehoused on NVDA US.

Watch: GPU rental spot (new credit-cycle tell), facility terms at close (T1), hyperscaler OCF >32% at Q3 (Baker's own bar), Anthropic IPO Oct (~$2tn tgt).

Not a short signal -- a monitoring-regime signal: the cycle moved from equity to credit instruments. Full 2-pager attached. Figures podcast-cited, unaudited. Not investment advice.

Laurent Chekroun
Graham Advisors Sarl, Pfaffikon SZ