>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 1st of May 2024

>>> Up
* Acciona Energia Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 19.50 euros
* Amazon PT Raised to $220 from $215 at Morgan Stanley
* Eli Lilly PT Raised to $1,001 from $900 at BMO
* Snam Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 5.10 euros
* Terna Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 8.90 euros
* Vidrala Raised to Buy at Intermoney Valores; PT 121 euros

>>> Down
* Autodesk Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $295
* Darktrace Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 620 pence
* Darktrace Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 620 pence
* Fnac Darty Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 33 euros
* KPN Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 3.55 euros
* Newmont Corp Cut to Sector Perform at National Bank; PT $49.44
* Starbucks Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
* Stellantis Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT $25.57

>>> Initiation
* Allianz Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT 284 euros
* Kitwave Group Rated New Buy at Investec; PT 485 pence

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 1st of May 2024

Stocks in Asia dropped after renewed concerns about higher-for-longer US interest rates fueled a selloff on Wall Street, with all eyes on the Federal Reserve’s policy decision due later Wednesday.  Japan’s Nikkei 225 index slid after recording its worst month since December 2022. Australian shares also declined, with many markets in the region closed for a public holiday. The S&P 500 fell the most since January after a jump in a key gauge of US labor costs reinforced bets that officials will keep rates at a two-decade high for some time. US stock futures slipped in Asian trade. The yen was steady with an index of the dollar stabilizing after gaining the most in more than two weeks on Tuesday. Treasury two-year yields edged slightly lower after reaching the highest level since November, while Australia’s 10-year yield jumped six basis points early Wednesday. In the corporate world, Japan’s Lasertec Corp shares climbed as much as 14%, after the semiconductor equipment maker reported strong order growth and consensus-beating third-quarter earnings. Warren Buffett-favored Japanese trading firm Mitsui & Co. announced that it will buy back up to 200 billion yen ($1.3 billion) worth of shares, as it looks to boost investor returns.  In other markets, gold steadied after extending its decline from a record high reached in mid-April. Oil continued to slip as the potential for a cease-fire in the Middle East eased tensions.  The last time Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke, he pointed to the lack of further progress in bringing inflation down and to enduring strength in the labor market. The latest inflation signals — in tandem with expectations for a robust employment report on Friday — aren’t likely to lead him to change his tune. A plunge in consumer confidence further weighed heavily on US equities — which suffered their worst month since September. In late hours, Amazon.com Inc. reported strong sales for its cloud unit amid rising artificial-intelligence demand. Advanced Micro Devices Inc., the second-biggest maker of computer processors, gave a lukewarm revenue forecast for the current period. A survey conducted by 22V Research shows that only 16% of investors polled expect a “risk-on” reaction to Wednesday’s Fed decision, 44% said “risk-off,” and 40% “negligible/mixed.” The tally also revealed that two-thirds of respondents still expect a rate cut in 2024. Sticky US inflation this year isn’t necessarily bad news for the stock rally as higher yields are a reflection of strong economic growth, according to HSBC strategists led by Max Kettner. US After Hours PINS +15.7%, NARI +10.8%, ATEN +6%, AMZN +2.3% higher on earnings; SBUX -12.4%, SMCI -10.3%, SWKS -9.3%, AMD -6.8% lower on earnings.

Nikkei -0.30% Hang Seng +0.09% CSI -0.54% Shanghai -0.26% Shenzen -0.70%

Eur$ 1.0656 CNH 7.2494 CNY 7.2410 JPY 157.88 GBP 1.2478 CHF 0.9210 RUB 93.4501 TRY 32.4194 WTI$ 81.18 -0.92% Gold 2,288 +0.08% BTC 59,915 +0.08% ETH 2,985 +0.78%

S&P -0.10% Nasdaq -0.34% EuroStoxx Close FTSE +0.01% Dax Close SMI Close

Macro :
- Europe REITs' Existential Crisis Amid Evolving Market: BI Summit
- Loeb’s Third Point Says AI Makes Up Almost 50% of Stock Exposure

Keep an eye on :
- AENA SM : Aena 1Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- AIR FP : Spirit Aero, Airbus Near Critical Talks on Fate of Supplier
- APPS SM : Apollo to Assist Spain Regulator in Review of Offer for Applus
- BN CN : Microsoft Agrees to Back Renewable Projects by Brookfield: FT
- CO FP : Casino Reports Sale of 121 Stores to ITM, Auchan, Carrefour
- CC US : Chemours 1Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- CLX US : Clorox Boosts FY Adjusted EPS Forecast, Beats Estimates
- ENGI FP : Worley Gets Engie Contract for Pipeline Expansion in Mexico
- ENGI FP : Engie Energia Chile Names Pascal Renaud as Chairman
- IDR SM : Indra Says Chairman Murtra Given ‘Specific Executive Functions’
- NK FP : Imerys 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- MMB FP : Lagardère Names Jean-Christophe Thiery Provisional CEO
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Costs Rising on Labor, Offsets May Fall Short: React
- PCG US : PG&E In Talks with KKR to Sell Minority Stake in Power Business
- PUIG SM : Rabanne Owner Puig, Shareholders Raise €2.6 Billion in IPO
- RED SM : Redeia 1Q Net Income Misses Estimates
- SBUX US : Starbucks Shares Sink as 2Q Comparable Sales Misses Estimate
- STLAM IM : Stellantis UAW Members to Vote on Plant Strike Authorization
- TSLA US : Tesla Axes Most of Supercharger Team in Blow to Other Automakers
- TFI FP : TF1 1Q Current Operating Income EU37.3M Vs. EU39.9M Y/y
- VIK US : Cruise Line Viking’s IPO Raises $1.54 Billion, Priced Near Top
- YAR NO : Fertilizer Producer Mosaic Jumps on $1.5 Billion Saudi Deal

>>> US After Hours Summary: PINS +15.7%, NARI +10.8%, ATEN +6%, AMZN +2.3% highe

After Hours Summary: PINS +15.7%, NARI +10.8%, ATEN +6%, AMZN +2.3% higher on earnings; SBUX -12.4%, SMCI -10.3%, SWKS -9.3%, AMD -6.8% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ROOT +25%, POWL +22.4%, PINS +15.7%, TMDX +11.3%, NARI +10.8%, LMND +8%, QUAD +7.5%, CCCS +7%, ATEN +6%, MDXG +5.4%, RWT +4%, LC +3.6%, AX +3%, KAI +2.6%, AMZN +2.3%, KRG +1.8%, AMCR +1.3%, WTTR +1.1%, VOYA +0.9%, INVH +0.8% (also enters into joint venture with Quarterra Group), EXR +0.5%, GPOR +0.2%, MATX +0.1%, MIR +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: DOCN +7.2% (to join S&P SmallCap 600), NBIX +5.4% (announces FDA approval of INGREZZA SPRINKLE), VRNT +4.7% (announces large order from one of the world's largest retailers), DSP +4.1% (authorizes new $50 mln share repurchase program), CWEN +2.8% (names new CEO, reaffirms 2024 CAFD guidance), PCAR +2.2% (increases dividend), NDAQ +1.9% (files mixed shelf securities offering), MAXN +1.5% (to delay 20-F filing), WBD +0.7% (WBD leaves FUBO platform), PARA +0.6% (PARA and CHTR aiming to extend contract negotiations, according to Bloomberg), PCG +0.4% (PCG closing in on deal to sell multibillion-dollar stake in its power business with KKR, according to WSJ), FUBO +0.3% (WBD leaves FUBO platform), PEP +0.1% (increases dividend), MTH +0.1% (files mixed shelf securities offering)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CVRX -27.1%, LEG -12.7% (also reduces dividend), SBUX -12.4%, SMCI -10.3%, SWKS -9.3%, AMD -6.8%, OI -6.8%, HI -6.5%, EXEL -6.2%, CC -5.1%, DBRG -4.5%, CLX -4.4%, SYK -3.4%, BXP -3.3%, CZR -3%, DENN -2.1%, RYI -2.1%, MDLZ -2%, WERN -1.3%, BLKB -1.1%, FANG -1%, RSG -0.9%, PSA -0.6%, WPC -0.6%, UNM -0.5% (also increases dividend), CHK -0.4%, FBIN -0.4%, EIX -0.3%, MMSI -0.2%, ZYXI -0.2%, OKE -0.1%, PDM -0.1%, PK -0.1%, PRU -0.1%, STAG -0.1%, UDR -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: PSNY -7.9% (to delay its Annual Report on Form 20-F), SBS -1.9% (to delay 20-F filing), NVDA -1.8% (in sympathy with AMD earnings), INTC -0.6% (in sympathy with AMD earnings), TT -0.4% (files mixed shelf securities offering), DJT -0.3% (former President Trump discloses 36 mln in new Earnout Shares), CHTR -0.2% (PARA and CHTR aiming to extend contract negotiations, according to Bloomberg), MANU -0.1% (CFO to step down, names new CFO, also names new interim CEO)

WSJ : PG&E Nears Deal With KKR for Stake in Power Business Spinoff

PG&E Nears Deal With KKR for Stake in Power Business Spinoff
California utility is seeking regulatory approval to sell KKR part of a new company that would house most of its power generation business

PG&E PCG -0.87%decrease; red down pointing triangle is nearing a deal to sell a multibillion-dollar stake in its fleet of power plants to investment giant KKR KKR -2.32%decrease; red down pointing triangle as the company seeks funding for work intended to prevent its power lines from sparking wildfires.

The California utility company said it is seeking regulatory approval to transfer its sprawling hydroelectric system, as well as a smaller fleet of natural gas, solar and battery facilities, into a new subsidiary called Pacific Generation, 49.9% of which it intends to sell to KKR, one of the world’s biggest infrastructure investors.

PG&E has said the assets are nearly $3.5 billion, and analysts estimate the potential sale could be between $2 billion and $3 billion.

PG&E is pursuing the sale as it grapples with limits in its ability to raise debt and equity following a complex bankruptcy restructuring that required it to issue record amounts of each. It has been seeking alternative ways to fund its capital-spending plan, which proposes $62 billion in investments between 2024 and 2028.

“As we continue to build our systems, we must accelerate the infrastructure investments that will enable us to provide our customers with safe, sustainable, reliable and affordable energy,” said Chief Financial Officer Carolyn Burke.

In acquiring a stake in Pacific Generation, KKR would share in returns on capital investments in the generation fleet, as well as revenue from the sale of electricity. The firm would do so through its infrastructure investment business, which has $59 billion in assets under management.

PG&E filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2019, citing an estimated $30 billion in liability costs stemming from a series of major wildfires that killed more than 100 people and destroyed thousands of homes and businesses. It emerged in 2020 with more debt than it had at the start of the process and without an investment-grade credit rating.

The company’s proposed investments are largely focused on reducing the risk of its power lines igniting more fires, as well as upgrading and expanding the grid to support the state’s clean-energy goals. It has an ambitious plan to bury 10,000 miles of power lines in areas at high risk of fire, a multibillion-dollar undertaking that has gotten pushback from consumer advocacy groups.

But PG&E’s financing options are limited without further increasing customer rates, which are among the highest in the nation. Already, the company’s customers have seen monthly electric bills increase by an average of 18% this year.

The California Public Utilities Commission, which must approve the sale, has expressed concerns that allowing investors to own a substantial stake in PG&E’s generation portfolio could create a range of risks, including the prospect of operational issues. The agency has proposed blocking the sale but hasn’t yet made a final decision.

A number of organizations, including water agencies, irrigation districts and consumer advocacy groups, have expressed opposition to the sale, citing concerns that it could ultimately compromise the safety and reliability of the assets, which include a network of dams, and potentially change the way water supplies are managed.

PG&E says its existing workforce would continue to operate and maintain the facilities. KKR has invested in a handful of other U.S. energy companies through its infrastructure arm, including Sempra Infrastructure and Colonial Pipeline Co.

Because of KKR’s involvement, PG&E says Pacific Generation would have a higher credit rating than the utility company, resulting in a lower cost of debt. That would reduce customer rates by more than $100 million over the next 20 years, the company says.

“We are honored to be considered for this long-term effort and look forward to working alongside PG&E and Pacific Generation to enhance public safety, generate customer savings, and help California achieve its ambitious climate objectives,” KKR Managing Director Kathleen Lawler said.

PG&E has asked the CPUC to allow it more time to provide additional information explaining the benefits of the transaction. The agency could make a decision as soon as next month.

PG&E has told the commission that if it blocks the sale, the company could have to scale back certain investments in the grid. Executives say the company has been working to find ways to avoid having to alter its work plans.

PG&E told investors this month that without the approval of the sale, it would likely need to issue new debt and equity to fund the $62 billion it plans to invest through 2028. That could delay its efforts to improve the value of its shares and regain an investment-grade credit rating.

>>> Notable earnings/guidance movers: POWL +22%, PINS +18.2%, LMND +11.3%, TMDX

Notable earnings/guidance movers: POWL +22%, PINS +18.2%, LMND +11.3%, TMDX +9.6%, NARI +7.3%, AMZN +2.8% on upside; SBUX -11%, LEG -8.6%, SWKS -5.7%, SMCI -4.1%, AMD -3.2% on downside
  • Earnings/guidance gainers :POWL +22%, PINS +18.2%, LMND +11.3%, TMDX +9.6%, NARI +7.3%, CCCS +7%, PSA +4.1%, AMZN +2.8%, AX +2.7%, LC +2.4%, CC +1.9%, ATEN +1.8%, UNM +1.8%, WTTR +1.1%
  • Earnings/guidance losers: SBUX -11%, LEG -8.6%, HI -6.5%, EXEL -6.2%, OI -5.9%, TXG -5.8%, SWKS -5.7%, DENN -5.2%, CZR -4.5%, SMCI -4.1%, AMD -3.2%, INVH -2.6%, SYK -2.2%, WPC -2%, CLX -1.9%, ESS -1.9%, MDLZ -1.3%

>>> US Close Dow -1.49% S&P -1.57% Nasdaq -2.04% Russell -2.09%

Closing Stock Market Summary
It was a downbeat day for stocks. The Nasdaq Composite slid 2.0%, trailing the S&P 500 (-1.6%) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.5%). The major indices had been holding up better, however, before some mega cap stocks reversed initial gains.

NVIDIA (NVDA 864.02, -13.55, -1.5%), which was up as much as 1.2% at its high, and Meta Platforms (META 430.17, -2.45, -0.6%), which was up as much as 1.6% at its best level, were among the losing standouts in that respect.

The final sharp move lower in front of the close was related to last minute selling into month-end in de-risking action that has permeated the month. The S&P 500 logged a 4.2% decline in April, the Nasdaq Composite registered a 4.4% loss for the month, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 5.0% lower this month.

Today's downside bias in the stock market was driven by a jump in market rates following this morning's data. The Employment Cost Index for Q1 reflected a 1.2% increase in compensation costs versus expectations for a 1.0% increase. This report piled onto recent worries about sticky inflation and about the Fed pushing back its rate cut timeline.

The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the Fed funds rate, settled eight basis points at 5.05%. The 10-yr note yield settled seven basis points higher at 4.69%.

Just about everything participated in the broad retreat. The equal-weighted S&P 500 declined 1.5% and all 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower. Eli Lilly (LLY 781.10, +43.90, +6.0%), Corning (GLW 33.38, +1.60, +5.0%), and 3M (MMM 96.51, +4.35, +4.7%) were some exceptions following pleasing earnings results.

Looking ahead, there is a FOMC policy announcement tomorrow followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Market participants will be focused on the tone Mr. Powell takes and on any shifts in rhetoric following recent sticky inflation readings.
  • S&P 500:+5.6% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +4.3% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +2.9% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -2.6% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • Q1 Employment Cost Index 1.2% (consensus 1.0%); Prior 0.9%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that compensation costs accelerated from the fourth quarter, lending to concerns about general price inflation sticking above the Fed's 2% target for longer than expected.
  • February FHFA Housing Price Index 1.2%; Prior -0.1%
  • February S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 7.3% (consensus 6.7%); Prior 6.6%
  • April Chicago PMI 37.9 (consensus 44.5); Prior 41.4
  • April Consumer Confidence 97.0 (consensus 104.0); Prior was revised to 103.1 from 104.7
    • The key takeaway from the report is that consumers are generally more positive about present conditions than they are about future business conditions, job availability, and income, which is a view that could portend a slowdown in discretionary spending should their worries about income security increase.

Market participants will receive the following economic data on Wednesday:
  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -2.7%)
  • 8:15 ET: April ADP Employment Change (consensus 175,000; prior 184,000)
  • 10:00 ET: March Construction Spending (consensus 0.4%; prior -0.3%) and April ISM Manufacturing Index (consensus 50.0%; prior 50.3%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -6.37 mln)
  • 14:00 ET: May FOMC Decision (consensus 5.25-5.50%; prior 5.25-5.50%)

>>> Amazon beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs below consensus

Amazon beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs below consensus (175.00 -5.96)
  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.98 per share, $0.14 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.84; revenues rose 12.5% year/year to $143.31 bln vs the $142.65 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • Q1 operating income rose 221% yr/yr to $15.31 bln vs prior guidance of $8-12 bln.
    • AWS segment sales rose 17.2% yr/yr, or +17% CC to $25.04 bln. This compares to +13% CC in Q4, +12% CC in Q3, +12% CC in Q2, +16% CC in Q1.
    • Advertising Services segment revenue grew +24% CC (constant currency) to $11.82 bln. This compares to +26% CC in Q4, +25% CC in Q3, +22% CC in Q2, +23% CC in Q1 and +23% CC in Q4.
  • Co issues downside guidance for Q2, sees Q2 revs of $144-149 bln vs. $150.2 bln FactSet Consensus. Co guides to Q2 operating income of $10-14 bln.
  • "It was a good start to the year across the business, and you can see that in both our customer experience improvements and financial results," said Andy Jassy, Amazon President and CEO. "The combination of companies renewing their infrastructure modernization efforts and the appeal of AWS's AI capabilities is reaccelerating AWS's growth rate (now at a $100 billion annual revenue run rate); our Stores business continues to expand selection, provide everyday low prices, and accelerate delivery speed (setting another record on speed for Prime customers in Q1) while lowering our cost to serve; and, our Advertising efforts continue to benefit from the growth of our Stores and Prime Video businesses. It's very early days in all of our businesses and we remain excited by how much more we can make customers' lives better and easier moving forward."

>>> Super Micro Computer beats by $0.91, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS above con

Super Micro Computer beats by $0.91, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (858.80 -31.55)
  • Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $6.65 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.91 better than the FactSet Consensus of $5.74; revenues rose 200.0% year/year to $3.85 bln vs the $3.96 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Co issues upside guidance for Q4 (Jun), sees EPS of $7.62-8.42, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $7.13 FactSet Consensus; sees Q4 revs of $5.1-5.5 bln vs. $4.86 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Co issues upside guidance for FY24, sees EPS of $23.29-24.09, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $21.85 FactSet Consensus; sees FY24 revs of $14.7-15.1 bln vs. $14.58 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Co added, "Strong demand for AI rack scale PnP solutions, along with our team's ability to develop innovative DLC designs, enabled us to expand our market leadership in AI infrastructure. As new solutions ramp, including fully production ready DLC, we expect to continue gaining market share."

>> Starbucks misses by $0.12, misses on revs; US comps -3%; global comps -4%; wi

Starbucks misses by $0.12, misses on revs; US comps -3%; global comps -4%; will guide on conference call at 17:00 ET (88.49 +0.16)
  • Reports Q2 (Mar) earnings of $0.68 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.12 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.80; revenues fell 1.8% year/year to $8.56 bln vs the $9.12 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Global comparable store sales declined 4%, driven by a 6% decline in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 2% increase in average ticket. North America and U.S. comparable store sales declined 3%, driven by a 7% decline in comparable transactions, partially offset by a 4% increase in average ticket. International comparable store sales declined 6%, driven by a 3% decline in both comparable transactions and average ticket; China comparable store sales declined 11%, driven by an 8% decline in average ticket and a 4% decline in comparable transactions. The company opened 364 net new stores in Q2, ending the period with 38,951 stores: 52% company-operated and 48% licensed. At the end of Q2, stores in the U.S. and China comprised 61% of the company's global portfolio, with 16,600 and 7,093 stores in the U.S. and China, respectively.
  • GAAP operating margin contracted 240 basis points year-over-year to 12.8%, primarily driven by deleverage, incremental investments in store partner wages and benefits, increased promotional activities, lapping the gain on the sale of Seattle's Best Coffee brand, as well as higher general and administrative costs primarily in support of Reinvention. This decline was partially offset by pricing and in-store operational efficiencies.
  • "While it was a difficult quarter, we learned from our own underperformance and sharpened our focus with a comprehensive roadmap of well thought out actions making the path forward clear," commented Rachel Ruggeri, chief financial officer. "On this path, we remain committed to our disciplined approach to capital allocation as we navigate this complex and dynamic environment," Ruggeri added.
  • Company typically guides on conference call at 17:00 ET.