FT : Italy can seize ancient statue in US, European court says

Italy can seize ancient statue in US, European court says
Rome has tried for decades to repatriate ‘Victorious Youth’ from Getty museum in Malibu

Europe’s top human rights court has upheld Italy’s right to seize an ancient Greek statue from a US museum, a significant legal victory in Rome’s decades-long efforts to repatriate the prized artwork.

Judges at the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg on Thursday said Italy’s quest to recover the “Victorious Youth” from the Getty Villa Museum in Malibu amounted to “legitimate action”.

The statue, which dates back to 300-100 BC and has been attributed by scholars to the artist Lysippus, is one of the world’s few surviving life-sized Greek bronzes, and depicts a young athlete raising his right hand to his olive wreath crown.

It was fished out of international waters by Italian fishermen in 1964, and purchased for $4mn in 1977 by the J. Paul Getty Trust, founded by the late oil baron and prodigious art collector.

The ruling is the latest twist of a decades-old battle over the statue and deals a stinging rebuke to one the wealthiest art institutions in the US. The ECHR slammed the Getty Trust for “negligence or bad faith” in purchasing the work despite being aware that the Italian government claimed the statute, which disappeared a year after its initial recovery. 

The seven-judge panel said the confiscation order was “proportionate” to the aim of restoring an item that was “part of Italy’s cultural heritage”.

Italian culture minister Gennaro Sangiuliano hailed the “unequivocal ruling” as vindication, and vowed to continue “with renewed determination to have the work back in Italy soon”.

The ruling — which can be appealed within three months — is a setback for the Getty Trust, which has long argued that Italy has no valid claim to the statue, given its Greek origins. The museum could not immediately be reached for comment.

The statue is believed to have sunk in a ship carrying it to Italy, after ancient Rome conquered Greece. Centuries later, it was pulled from international waters off the coast of Italy’s Marche region.

It soon disappeared on the black market and was believed to have been temporarily hidden in an Italian cabbage patch and later in a priest’s bathtub, before being put for sale at a Munich auction, where it was purchased by the Getty Trust.

After Getty’s purchase, Italy made multiple legal and diplomatic attempts to intercept the statue — and has continued its recovery quest since. 

In 2010, an Italian court ruled that the government could seize the statue, as the work had been found by an Italian vessel, which gave Rome the rights of ownership.

Eight years later, that ruling was upheld by Italy’s top court, the Court of Cassation, which rebuked Getty for making the purchase “without adequately ascertaining its provenance”.

Italy’s top court cited “the continuum between Greek civilisation, which had expanded on to Italian territory” and validated Rome’s claim to the piece.

The Getty Trust appealed the Italian confiscation order to ECHR, alleging that it violated a fundamental article related to the protection of private property, and again reiterating that it had bought the statue in “good faith”.

However, in its judgment on Thursday, the ECHR sided firmly with Italy, saying Getty had purchased the statue “in the absence of proof of its legitimate provenance” and noting that there is no time limit for the confiscation of “unlawfully exported cultural objects”.

The US is not a signatory to the ECHR, which has no jurisdiction over US authorities or its institutions.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing government has made a priority of recovering stolen Italian artefacts, and says it has suspended all collaborations with museums that refuse to abide by confiscation orders issued by Italian courts.

Rome is also pursuing the return of various works now housed in the Louvre Museum in Paris, and an ancient Roman copy of a classical Greek statue, the Stabia Doryphoros, or lance bearer from the Minneapolis Museum.

Reuters : Hong Kong regulator brings insider trading charges against Segantii an

Hong Kong regulator brings insider trading charges against Segantii and its founder

HONG KONG, May 2 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's securities regulator started an insider dealing prosecution against hedge fund Segantii Capital Management, its founder and a former trader, the watchdog said on Thursday.

The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) said it had started criminal proceedings against Segantii, its founder and chief investment officer Simon Sadler, and former trader Daniel La Rocca for insider dealing in the shares of a Hong Kong-listed company prior to a block trade in June 2017.

Segantii did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment and the two defendants could not be contacted.
Sadler, a British businessman, is also owner of his hometown soccer club, Blackpool Football Club.

Established in 2007, Segantii is one of the oldest and biggest hedge funds in Asia. Its flagship Asia-Pacific Equity Multi-Strategy Fund was up 2.5% in the first quarter, after a 1.6% decline in 2023, according to a fund's monthly letter seen by Reuters.

The fund managed about $4.8 billion at the end of March, the letter said.
Segantii, one of Hong Kong's most high profile hedge funds, also has operations in London, New York and Dubai, according to its website.

The two defendants appeared at Hong Kong's Eastern Magistrates' Court on Thursday morning, no plea was taken and the case was adjourned to June 12, SFC said in a statement.

Sadler and La Rocca were released pending the next hearing under certain conditions, including cash bail of $1 million and $500,000 respectively, SFC added.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • FSLY -34.2%, FRSH -26% (also names new CEO), NTGR -20.2%, RELY -14.5%, ETSY -13.2%, DASH -11.2%, WOLF -10.3%, QRVO -8.8%, APPN -7.4%, GIL -7.3%, PAYC -6.8% (also expand its product offerings and geographic reach into Ireland), SDGR -6.6%, ZG -6.3%, KAR -5.5%, MYRG -5.4%, DRVN -5.2%, DNB -5.2%, MSGS -5%, ACLS -4.6%, UGI -4.5% (also concludes strategic review, to retain ownership of AmeriGas Propane; to focus on a restructuring), CYBR -4.3%, CDE -4.1%, PPC -3.9%, NVST -3.8%, MUSA -3.8%, ICE -3.8%, FLWS -3.6%, CODI -3.5%, EBAY -3.4%, WD -3.4%, SWK -3.2%, LIN -3.1%, EVTC -3%, JAZZ -3%, ITT -3%, BAX -3%, AVNW -2.9%, HII -2.9%, INMD -2.8%, BALY -2.7%, MBUU -2.5%, ELME -2.4%, TROX -2.4%, VNT -2.3%, XRAY -2.2%, ATRC -2.1%, PWR -2.1%, LNC -2.1%, CCRN -2%, ANSS -2%, CRK -2%, GKOS -1.9%, AGCO -1.9%, EQC -1.8%, LBTYA -1.7%, REGN -1.7%, ARES -1.6%, PH -1.5%, TSLX -1.4%, PAX -1.4%, MTRN -1.3%, GVA -1.3%, BRKR -1.3%, FSLR -1.2%, HPP -1.2%, CSGS -1.2%, WCC -1.1%, LAMR -1.1%, IDA -1.1%, CAH -1.1%, MCO -1.1%, .
Other news:
  • MGX -7.7% (to regain full development rights to its editing and RIGS systems)
  • SNY -1.5% (reports Beyfortus real-world evidence published in The Lancet shows 82% reduction in infant RSV hospitalizations)
  • ROAD -1.2% (acquires Sunbelt Asphalt Surfaces)
Analyst comments:
  • SR -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • CVNA +35.1%, ASPN +26.8%, ENVX +22.6% (also reaches development agreement with top 5 smartphone OEM), RSI +16.7%, MAX +14%, CHRW +11%, NOVA +9.1%, UPWK +8.8%, W +8.8%, PTON +8.7%, CAR +8.4%, BHE +8.1%, CRTO +8.1%, HWM +7.9%, HLF +7.6%, SRPT +7.5%, BPMC +7.5%, CORT +7.2%, MGM +6.7%, SWTX +6.7%, MPWR +6.5%, AUPH +6.5%, BHC +6.2%, WRK +6.1%, SSTK +6%, PBF +5.9%, ING +5.8%, BWA +5.7%, ULCC +5.7%, SKWD +5.6%, FORM +5.6%, DLX +5.5%, QCOM +5.5%, GRBK +5.4%, LNTH +5.4%, BTSG +5.2%, NVCR +5.2%, RHP +5.1%, AEIS +5%, MGPI +4.8%, KTB +4.7%, ZBH +4.6%, APTV +4.6%, LAUR +4.5%, BDC +4.5%, OMCL +4.5%, TPB +4.5%, VAL +4.3%, SFM +4.2%, KYMR +4.2%, SEE +4.2%, EXLS +4.1%, LXP +3.9%, CGNX +3.7%, OLPX +3.6%, HST +3.5%, ZTS +3.5%, CNK +3.2%, GERN +3.2%, OGN +3.2%, BDX +3.1%, MCW +3%, SBOW +2.9%, VMC +2.9%, RDN +2.7%, GNW +2.6%, PJT +2.6% (sends additional letter to in regards to short sales violations), CTSH +2.5%, DBD +2.5%, HIPO +2.4%, MT +2.3%, PGRE +2.2%, TTEK +2.2%, CI +2.2%, AIG +2.1% (also increases dividend; announces increases buyback auth by $10 bln), CMPR +2.1%, PBI +2.1%, CTVA +2%, VMI +1.9%, CNHI +1.9%, QTWO +1.8%, MKL +1.6%, BZH +1.6%, EXPI +1.5%, JHG +1.5%, PRDO +1.4%, ALL +1.4%, THRY +1.4%, ALB +1.3%, DVN +1.3%, MRNA +1.3%, SHEL +1.2%, IRM +1.2%, MRO +1.1%, PENN +1.1%, D +1.1%, MTSI +1%
Other news:
  • EBS +57.5% (announces next phase of new operational plan, which consolidates operations, closes several facilities, and restructures its enterprise workforce) INN +7.7% (increases dividend, also reports earnings)
  • IAC +7.3% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
  • INMB +6.5% (files $250 mln mixed shelf securities offering)
  • BBAI +2.9% (partners with Spinnaker SCA to elevate offering in supply chain consulting)
  • PSTX +2.9% (Poseida Therapeutics and Astellas Pharma (ALPMY) enter into research collaboration and license agreement to develop novel allogeneic cell therapies in oncology)
  • BBIO +2.1% (completion of a $200 mln private financing of its former subsidiary, TheRas, Inc. d/b/a BridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics, to accelerate the development of its oncology portfolio)
  • AMKR +1.5% (files mixed shelf securities offering)
  • BLZE +1.2% (files $200 mln mixed shelf securities offering)
  • CAG +1% (Darren Serrao, Co-COO, to depart; co also will reorganize its reporting structure)
Analyst comments:
  • TTD +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies)
  • SHOP +2.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas)
  • SNOW +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas)
  • BURL +2% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS)
  • TTMI +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)
  • BFH +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette)
  • SYF +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette)

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Bread Financial (BFH) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $67
    • Burlington Stores (BURL) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at UBS; tgt raised to $212
    • Carvana (CVNA) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $130
    • CGI Group (GIB) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Securities
    • MGM Resorts (MGM) upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna; tgt $54
    • NNN REIT (NNN) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $42
    • Shopify (SHOP) upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas
    • SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt lowered to $165
    • Snowflake (SNOW) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $200
    • Synchrony Financial (SYF) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt raised to $62
    • Tanger Factory (SKT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Compass Point; tgt raised to $32
    • TJX (TJX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; tgt raised to $132
    • The Trade Desk (TTD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $105
    • TTM Tech (TTMI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt raised to $19
    • Upwork (UPWK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research; tgt $16
    • Ziff Davis (ZD) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt $70
  • Downgrades:
    • Astec Industries (ASTE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt lowered to $37
    • CVS Health (CVS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS; tgt lowered to $60
    • Etsy (ETSY) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Loop Capital; tgt lowered to $50
    • Fastly (FSLY) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $8
    • Fastly (FSLY) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson; tgt lowered to $8.50
    • Freshworks (FRSH) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt lowered to $16
    • Freshworks (FRSH) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
    • Hudson Technologies (HDSN) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity; tgt lowered to $10
    • Metagenomi (MGX) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $6
    • Spire (SR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $62
    • Wolfspeed (WOLF) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
    • Wolfspeed (WOLF) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen; tgt lowered to $25
  • Others:
    • Amplify Energy (AMPY) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $11
    • AppLovin (APP) resumed with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt raised to $93
    • Bancolombia S.A. (CIB) resumed with a Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt $38
    • IBM (IBM) initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $145
    • Meta Platforms (META) initiated with an Underperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $360
    • Netflix (NFLX) initiated with an Outperform at CICC, tgt $650
    • Outbrain Inc. (OB) resumed with a Hold at Jefferies; tgt $4
    • Roku (ROKU) resumed with an Underperform at Jefferies; tgt $50
    • Sagimet Biosciences (SGMT) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $32
    • Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $50
    • Tesla (TSLA) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $230

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • EBS +70.5%, CVNA +39%, ASPN +26.7%, ENVX +24.1%, CORT +12.6%, RSI +12.6%, CHRW +9.9%, FORM +8.9%, UPWK +8.7%, MPWR +8.4%, SRPT +8.3%, BHE +8.1%, INN +7.7%, HLF +7.7%, VTR +7%, IAC +6.6%, MGM +6.3%, SKWD +5.6%, DLX +5.5%, CAR +5.5%, GRBK +5.4%, ING +5.3%, BBAI +5.2%, RHP +5.1%, AEIS +5%, QCOM +4.9%, VAL +4.6%, VMI +4.5%, EXLS +4.1%, NOVA +3.7%, HST +3.5%, MCW +3%, PSTX +2.9%, AIG +2.9%, SBOW +2.9%, BTSG +2.9%, RDN +2.7%, HPP +2.5%, CTVA +2.4%, AUPH +2.3%, PGRE +2.2%, TTEK +2.2%, CMPR +2.1%, CTSH +2.1%, MT +2%, NSA +1.9%, CI +1.9%, QTWO +1.8%, MKL +1.6%, BZH +1.6%, AMKR +1.5%, EXPI +1.5%, PRDO +1.4%, CGNX +1.4%, SSTK +1.3%, BLZE +1.2%, ALB +1.2%, CNQ +1.2%, LSXMK +1.1%, EPR +1.1%, CAG +1%, AFL +1%, SHEL +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • FSLY -33.6%, FRSH -27.9%, NTGR -20.2%, RELY -16.2%, ETSY -14.2%, DASH -12.9%, QRVO -10%, WOLF -8.8%, PAYC -8.7%, GIL -7.3%, MGX -7.2%, ATRC -5.9%, KAR -5.4%, MYRG -5.4%, SDGR -5.2%, PTC -4.7%, UGI -4.4%, ZG -4.2%, KLIC -3.9%, PPC -3.9%, EBAY -3.9%, NVST -3.8%, CODI -3.5%, WD -3.4%, CDE -3.3%, EVTC -3%, JAZZ -3%, AVNW -2.9%, LIN -2.9%, XRAY -2.9%, ACLS -2.8%, BALY -2.7%, MUSA -2.5%, ELME -2.4%, TROX -2.4%, FSLR -2.3%, SNY -2.1%, SWK -2.1%, CCRN -2%, NVO -2%, MET -1.9%, GKOS -1.9%, EQC -1.8%, LBTYA -1.7%, NMFC -1.7%, ANSS -1.4%, TSLX -1.4%, MTRN -1.3%, ROAD -1.2%, GOOD -1.2%, CRK -1.2%, CSGS -1.2%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 1st & 2nd of May 2024 V4(+++)

>>> Up
* Adidas PT Raised to 276 euros from 231 euros at UBS (+)
* AJ Bell Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 375 pence (+)
* Acciona Energia Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 19.50 euros
* Amazon PT Raised to $220 from $215 at Morgan Stanley
* CTP Raised to Buy at Wood & Company; PT 18.90 euros (+++)
* EFG International Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 13.30 Swiss francs (++)
* Eli Lilly PT Raised to $1,001 from $900 at BMO
* Fielmann Raised to Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 56 euros (+++)
* Getlink Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 20 euros (++)
* Pernod Ricard Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 137 euros (++)
* Sabadell Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 2.38 euros (++)
* Snam Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 5.10 euros
* Terna Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 8.90 euros
* Travis Perkins Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* Vidrala Raised to Buy at Intermoney Valores; PT 121 euros
* Wavestone Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 68 euros (++)

>>> Down
* Alpha Finl Markets Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 465 pence (++)
* Autodesk Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT $295
* Bakkafrost Cut to Sell at ABG; PT 573 kroner (++)
* Computacenter Cut to Hold at Investec; PT 2,600 pence
* Darktrace Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 620 pence
* Darktrace Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 620 pence
* Fnac Darty Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 33 euros
* KPN Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 3.55 euros
* Molson Coors PT Cut to $53 from $56 at Citi (++)
* Orege Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 40 euro cents (+++)
* Salmar Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 723 kroner (++)
* Solteq Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 55 euro cents (++)
* Sparebanken Vest Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 127 kroner (++)
* Sparebanken Vest Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 134 kroner (+++)
* Starbucks Cut to Market Perform at William Blair
* Starbucks Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $89 (++)
* Stellantis Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT $25.57
* Vocento Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 1 euro (+++)
* YIT Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 1.85 euros (++)

>>> Initiation
* 3i Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Abrdn Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 195 pence (+++)
* Allianz Rated New Neutral at Autonomous; PT 284 euros
* Attendo Reinstated Buy at Nordea; PT 50 kronor (++)
* Bodycote Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 840 pence (+)
* Bridgepoint Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++0
* Brooks Macdonald Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Galderma Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 80 Swiss francs (++)
* Galderma Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley (++)
* Galderma Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT 82 Swiss francs (++)
* Galderma Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 80 Swiss francs (++)
* Galderma Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 77 Swiss francs (+++)
* Gooch & Housego Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 675 pence (+)
* Halma Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,400 pence (+)
* Hargreaves Lansdown Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Hill & Smith Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 2,250 pence (+)
* IBM Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $145 (+++)
* Ipsen Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 130 euros (++)
* Jupiter Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Kitwave Group Rated New Buy at Investec; PT 485 pence
* Liontrust Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Man Group Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Melrose Industries Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Meta Platforms Rated New Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT $360 (+++)
* Morgan Advanced Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Ninety One Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Oxford Instruments Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Polar Capital Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* QinetiQ Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 430 pence (+)
* Quilter Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Rathbones Group Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Renishaw Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Rotork Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* St James's Place Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Schroders Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)
* Senior Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 250 pence (+)
* Spectris Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Spirax Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* TI Fluid Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* TT Electronics Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 260 pence (+)
* Vesuvius Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Wise Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank (+++)

>>> Call
* Bakkafrost Gets Only Sell as ABG Cuts, Salmar Downgraded to Hold (++)
* EFG Raised at Citi, Positive Watch Opened on Julius Baer (++)
* Getlink Raised to Buy at Citi on Structural Growth Opportunities (+++)
* Haleon’s 1Q Volume Miss May Spur ‘Some De-Rating,’ Citi Says (+)
* Ipsen a Buy at Citi; Dysport, Rare Disease Assets to Fuel Growth (++)
* Kemira Visibility Improving, Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg (++)
* MERCEDES REMOVED FROM GOLDMAN'S EUROPEAN CONVICTION LIST (+++)
* Novo Sales Outlook Helped by US Rebate Gains, Jefferies Says (+++)
* Orsted Keeps Guidance as Results in Line With Expectations: RBC (+++)
* SAINT-GOBAIN, ZEALAND PHARMA ADDED TO GOLDMAN CONVICTION LIST (+++)

FT : UK households cut back on beer, meat and domestic appliances after prices s

UK households cut back on beer, meat and domestic appliances after prices surge
FT analysis of official data points to impact of cost of living crisis on consumption

UK households have cut back on beer, bread, meat, recreation and domestic appliances since late 2021, according to a Financial Times analysis of official data that points to the impact of the cost of living crisis on consumption.

Real consumer spending has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels in Britain, underperforming the US and eurozone, and contracted in the final three months of 2023, underlining the challenge Prime Minister Rishi Sunak faces in creating a feelgood factor in the economy ahead of the election.

UK households slashed purchases of beer by 15 per cent, confectionery by 10 per cent, meat by 7 per cent, and bread and fruit by 9 per cent each in the two years to the final quarter of 2023, shows an analysis of detailed consumer spending figures from the Office for National Statistics and gross domestic product data.

The trend partly reflects the impact of the pandemic, with consumers returning to spend more on services and less on goods, but it mainly captures weakening spending power stemming from higher prices. The rise in interest rates to a 16-year high has also hit household finances, pushing up mortgage costs and rents.

Consumers spent 15 per cent more over the two years to Q4 2023, the latest quarter for which data is available, although they bought 0.5 per cent fewer goods.

Household spending on gas surged by almost 70 per cent, but consumers bought 10 per cent lower volumes. The volume of food purchased by consumers was also 8 per cent lower, even as spending on groceries increased by 16 per cent over the past two years.


“The cost of many essential items, such as energy and food, has risen dramatically in the past two years, and wages have not kept up with the large rise in prices. Given household budget constraints, something had to give,” said Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at investment company T Rowe Price.

As a result, he added, “households had to cut back on many non-essential items such as goods and luxury services”, as well as on energy consumption, and switched away from more expensive branded foodstuffs.

UK consumer price inflation peaked at a 42-year high of 11.1 per cent in October 2022, while real wages contracted for most of 2022 and 2023. Inflation dropped to 3.2 per cent in February, but prices remain about 20 per cent above their mid-2021 levels.

ONS data shows inflation-adjusted spending on household appliances, such as coffee machines and dishwashers, dropped 19 per cent in the two years to the end of 2023 and was 8 per cent below pre-Covid levels.

Real spending on furniture was down 9 per cent, with fewer purchases of cars, plants, jewellery and insurance. Spending on housing was affected by the property market downturn last year and the “race for space” at the height of the pandemic.


Overall, household real spending in the final three months of 2023 was 2.4 per cent below its level in the same period of 2019. This compares with an 8 per cent expansion in the four years to the end of 2019.

British households fared worse than others, official data suggests. In the US consumer real spending rose 10 per cent from pre-pandemic levels in the final three months of 2023, and Britain’s performance was weaker than that of the eurozone and Canada.

The sharper contraction in consumer spending in the UK “was probably largely due to the UK’s higher and longer-lasting inflation problem”, said Ruth Gregory, economist at research company Capital Economics, referring to UK prices rising faster than in the eurozone and the US last year.

“The UK had the worst of both worlds, a big energy shock like the eurozone and worse labour shortages like the US,” she added.

Wieladek said the hit to consumption mattered especially in an expected election year, because squeezed households would “blame authorities”.


With the Conservative party about 20 points behind Labour in opinion polls, Sunak is hoping for better economic conditions to underpin his election campaign.

Gregory said it made “sense for Sunak to wait as long as he can” before going to the country, adding: “The recession in the consumer sector may be over and the recovery will start to gather pace from the second quarter.”

ONS data shows higher food and energy prices left little room for other purchases in the two years to the end of 2023: inflation-adjusted spending on personal care, which includes hairdressing and nail salons, dropped 4 per cent. Spending on recreation and culture also fell, including an 18 per cent decline for sports equipment and a 5 per cent drop for games and hobbies.

Education and communication registered rises in real spending in the same period and relative to pre-pandemic levels, reflecting long-term shifts in consumption habits. Real spending on travel and restaurants rose compared with the end of 2021, but was still below its Q4 2019 levels.

Mark Boyd-Boland, partner at consultancy LEK, said that in addition to cutting discretionary spending, consumers had “sought to moderate what they bought at the grocery store”, buying “a few less of the nice things” and downgrading to supermarket own-label items.

Boyd-Boland said that while the point at which “household budgets will feel better” was approaching, the benefits of lower inflation would take “some time to come through because of the ongoing impact of the interest rate increases”.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Maersk (DP4B TH) +4.8%
    • Maersk Sees Improved Prospects for Global Container Trade
  • Pandora (3P7 TH) +4%
    • Pandora Boosts FY Organic Revenue Forecast
  • Diageo (GUI TH) +2.6%
  • Novo (NOV TH) +2.2%
    • Novo Quadruples US Patients Starting Wegovy, Boosts Outlook (1)
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +2.2%
    • Monsanto Gets $185 Million PCB Verdict Tossed in Washington
  • SES (SES TH) +2.1%
    • SES Gets €3b Bridge Loan from Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank (1)
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) +2.1%
    • Hugo Boss 1Q Sales Beats Estimates
  • Getlink (TNU3 TH) +1.6%
    • Getlink Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 20 euros
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +1.2%
    • Deep Dive: Full Mideast War Risks $150 Oil, $1 Trillion Off GDP
  • ASMI (AVS TH) -1.6%
  • Anglo American (NGLB TH) -1.6%
    • Copper’s Deteriorating Signals Suggest Price Correction Beckons
  • BBVA (BOY TH) -1.7%
    • BBVA Offers to Pay 30% Premium over Sabadell’s April 29 Price
  • Yara (IU2 TH) -1.7%
  • STMicroelectronics (SGM TH) -1.9%
  • BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) -2%
  • ASML (ASME TH) -2.1%
  • HSBC (HBC1 TH) -2.4%
    • Banking Giants Race to Riyadh as MBS Steps Up Pressure Campaign
  • Bawag (0B2 TH) -2.7%
  • Barclays (BCY TH) -3.3%