TechCrunch : OpenAI’s ChatGPT announcement: What we know so far

OpenAI’s ChatGPT announcement: What we know so far

OpenAI has a livestreamed announcement planned for 10 a.m. PT on Monday — but it’s trying to keep expectations under control.

The company is describing the event as “a chance to demo some ChatGPT and GPT-4 updates.” CEO Sam Altman, meanwhile, promoted the event with the message, “not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me.”

Altman’s wording was presumably alluding to a Reuters report published earlier this week, suggesting that OpenAI plans to announce an AI-powered search product on Monday — stealing some thunder from the Google I/O developer conference, which starts Tuesday. The report also said the announcement date “is subject to change.”

The Information and Bloomberg had previously reported that OpenAI has a search product in development. According to The Information, the product will be partly powered by Bing (Microsoft is a major OpenAI investor and partner); Bloomberg said it will work as a feature within ChatGPT, allowing the chatbot to search the web and cite sources — making it less of a black box that returns answers of unknown origin.

So in theory, at least, OpenAI could announce a search feature Monday and Altman’s insistence that it’s “not a search engine” could still be true. We’ll see.

The livestream starts at 10 a.m. PT on Monday. You can watch on the OpenAI website. : https://bit.ly/4dvnBTj

>>> Arm : Reportedly plans to launch its own AI chips by fall 2025 - Nikkei - To

Reportedly plans to launch its own AI chips by fall 2025 - Nikkei
- To set up an AI chip division with plans for a prototype by spring 2025 and mass production later that year carried out by contract manufacturers like TSMC
- Softbank expected to provide some funding for the initiative which is expected to cost hundreds of billions of Yen
- Once mass production begins the AI unit could be spun off with Softbank as the controlling owner

FT : UK waste confronts its carbon problem

UK waste confronts its carbon problem
Incineration plants have been attractive to investors, but must soon start paying for emissions

Pizza boxes, coffee cups and food packaging: roughly 15mn tonnes of these household waste items are gathered around the UK per year and sent to incinerators. 

These incineration plants make money not only from fees to take the waste but also from the electricity that is produced from the steam created from flue gases in the 1,000-degree centigrade furnaces. That has made the plants an appealing proposition for investors ranging from KKR, the US investment giant, and Suez, the French utility. 

That appeal is now being tested. The “energy-from-waste” sector is under pressure as the UK government tries to curb the country’s greenhouse gas emissions in line with its legally binding commitment to net zero emissions by 2050. 

Ministers have paused environmental permits for new plants and plan to make the sector start paying for its emissions, triggering potentially large costs for its customers, which include cash-strapped local authorities.

The number of energy-from-waste plants in the UK has soared since taxes were introduced in 1996 to deter the amount of waste sent to landfill, with 60 operational today and a further 12 being built. 

The fleet accounted for about 3 per cent of the country’s power generation in 2022, but also emitted more than 6mn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent, up 5 per cent on 2020. That raised alarm at the Climate Change Committee, which advises the UK government; it argues that the UK needs to boost stagnant recycling rates and prevent waste. The emissions figure does not include emissions from biogenic waste, which are counted as carbon neutral in the UK.


Wales introduced a moratorium on new energy-from-waste plants in 2021, while Scotland says it will only support developments “in very limited circumstances”. Last month, UK government ministers said they would pause issuing new environmental permits in England until May 24 while they review the case for new plants, sending jitters through the sector. 

“There are a lot of worried investors about the implications of this political interference in what should just be a purely technical determination,” said Jacob Hayler, executive director of the Environmental Services Association trade group. 

The move came after the UK government said last year that it planned to include the energy-from-waste sector from 2028 in its emissions trading scheme, under which polluters have to pay for the carbon dioxide they emit.

The cost of emissions is currently low, at roughly £40 per tonne, but that is expected to rise as the scheme is tightened up.

“We think this is going to be a massive driver of change for our sector,” added Hayler. “Our working assumption is that [carbon credits] are going to cost about £100 per tonne.” That compares with median payments from local authorities in 2022 of £103 per tonne of waste taken, according to a study by Wrap, a non-governmental organisation dedicated to tackling the climate crisis.  

Energy-from-waste is being included in the emissions scheme despite objections from local councils which, depending on contract terms, face having to foot the bill for the waste they send to incinerators. 

“We are concerned about the potential financial impacts to councils,” said Darren Rodwell, Labour leader for Barking and Dagenham Council and environment spokesperson for the Local Government Association. 

“For the scheme to succeed it is critical that the costs fall on the industries producing the material in the first place, rather than the council that collects, processes and disposes of the waste.”

Several energy-from-waste plant owners are now looking at plans to fit their plants with technology to capture their emissions. Yet carbon capture and storage systems have yet to be proven at scale in the UK and may not be suitable for many.

“[Carbon capture] is not a silver bullet for the entire industry,” said Cory Reynolds, director of corporate affairs at Veolia, one of the UK’s largest operators, which is exploring using the technology at one of its plants. “We need to focus on the prevention of fossil carbon emissions by removing plastics from the waste stream input.”

Enfinium, which owns four plants and is building two more, outlined plans this month under which it would potentially invest £1.7bn in emissions-cutting, including carbon-capture technology, across its fleet.

“I want the industry to be creating a solution before it becomes a problem,” said Mike Maudsley, chief executive of Enfinium, owned by Igneo Infrastructure Partners.

He and others also believe that they could generate new revenue streams by generating so-called “negative emissions” and selling credits to other companies struggling to cut their own.

The idea is that because emissions from biogenic waste, such as food and garden waste are considered carbon neutral, capturing and storing them would amount to a net removal.

Rival Viridor, which was bought by KKR for £4.2bn in 2020, last month said it would enter final negotiations with the government over support for carbon-capture technology at its plant in Runcorn, claiming this could generate about 450,000 tonnes of “negative emissions” per year.

The CCC and others acknowledge that “negative emissions” will be needed to offset emissions from sectors struggling to decarbonise, and that energy from waste plants could contribute to this.  

However, that is likely to spark debate about the carbon accounting behind the treatment of biogenic waste, which can include products such as kitchen roll and contaminated paper.

The CCC maintains that reducing waste should remain the goal. “Although negative emissions from energy-from-waste plants may be possible, emissions from the waste sector should be reduced through increased recycling and a reduction in the amount of waste produced,” it said.

The UK government’s department for energy, environment and rural affairs said it was “committed to reducing waste, improving recycling and meeting our net zero ambitions by sending less waste for incineration”.

“We must make sure we have the right waste management infrastructure to meet these goals, and are rightly considering the need for more waste incineration facilities.”

FT : South Korean state energy monopoly in talks to build new UK nuclear plant

South Korean state energy monopoly in talks to build new UK nuclear plant
Kepco has held early-stage discussions with British officials over mothballed Wylfa site

South Korea’s state energy monopoly is in talks with the UK government about building a new nuclear power station off the coast of Wales, in what could be a big boost to Britain’s plans for a new nuclear fleet.

Kepco has held early-stage discussions with British officials about a new facility at the Wylfa site in Anglesey, and a ministerial meeting is expected this coming week, according to people briefed on the matter.

In his March Budget, chancellor Jeremy Hunt announced the government would buy the mothballed site and another from Hitachi for £160mn. In 2019, the Japanese industrial group scrapped its plans to develop a nuclear project at Wylfa, writing off £2.1bn in the process. 

Hunt’s move was designed to facilitate a fresh deal with a new private sector partner to build a power station at Wylfa, which could boost the government’s plans to replace Britain’s current ageing fleet of nuclear power stations. 

About 14 per cent of the UK’s power was supplied by nuclear plants in 2022 but all but one of the fleet is set to close by the end of the decade, just as demand for low-carbon electricity is set to rise as part of the shift away from fossil fuels. 

The government wants the UK to have 24GW of nuclear capacity by 2050, compared with roughly 6GW today.

A consortium including US construction group Bechtel and US nuclear company Westinghouse has already proposed building a new plant on the Wylfa site using Westinghouse’s AP1000 reactor technology. 

One industry executive with knowledge of the situation said: “Kepco is certainly interested in the project and the company is in talks with the UK government about it.” 

Energy minister Andrew Bowie is expected to meet Kepco this week to discuss the proposals, a government official said. The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (Desnez) said: “Wylfa has excellent potential and we welcome the interest of all parties who are looking to invest in UK nuclear projects.”

Other industry figures pointed to increasingly active engagement between London and Seoul on a possible investment at Wylfa in recent months. “The Koreans are all over Desnez,” said one. 

One UK government official briefed on the matter said talks were “very much early stages” but that Claire Coutinho, energy secretary, would “very much welcome all interest” in nuclear investment.

Another industry figure said Wylfa’s future would depend on a decision by GB Nuclear, the government quango which now owns the site.

GBN could give the go-ahead for a large reactor or reactors at Wylfa or judge that it is a suitable site for building a cluster of new “small modular reactors”. Supporters of SMRs claim their modular design would make them relatively quick and cheap to build.

“Wylfa is now the next priority site for the UK so it makes sense that Kepco are interested, but they just need GBN to make a decision soon about whether they do want a traditional nuclear power station there,” the figure said. 

One senior Korean government official struck a cautious note about the prospect of Kepco buying the site, saying that building nuclear power stations in the UK was “difficult”. 

“In order to rebuild our nuclear ecosystem and since we have the technological prowess, we can certainly do nuclear projects in the UK if the conditions are right,” he said. “But it is not a good idea for our companies to stretch themselves and do those projects at a loss.”

Kepco declined to comment. 

Despite the UK government’s ambition for 24GW of nuclear capacity by 2050, only one project — Hinkley Point C — is under construction, and it is running wildly over-budget and late.

The government has meanwhile asked potential investors in a second proposed project at Sizewell in Suffolk to submit final bids before the summer as ministers seek to reach a final investment decision (FID) by July.

One industry figure said that while there had been conversations about announcing the FID by then, he was not sure that would be feasible.

Centrica is among companies that have expressed an interest in backing the new facility at Sizewell, which is being jointly developed by French-state owned energy company EDF and the UK government. Enec, which is owned by the Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund, has also been reported as one potential investor

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero said it was “delivering the biggest expansion of nuclear power in 70 years” and “exploring a range of nuclear technologies” to reach 24GW of capacity by 2050.

“We are already making progress on our nuclear revival, securing two sites to host new projects,” it added.

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary

Barron’s Weekend Summary: President Joe Biden needs to convince voters that higher inflation and interest rates are not a blight on his presidency

Cover:
-President Joe Biden needs to convince voters that the economy is strong and that higher inflation and interest rates are not a blight on his presidency. Bidenomics, which includes the Bipartisan Infrastructure Deal, the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, and the Chips and Science Act of 2022, has led to over $1T in economic stimulus through subsidies, tax breaks, and financial incentives. Despite political rhetoric, the economy is hardly ailing, with unemployment near record lows and gross domestic product expanding more than 3% a year on average over the past three years. Biden's policies coincided with the rise of artificial intelligence, tech investment, and pent-up demand after the pandemic-induced slowdown. Biden's legacy will persist, particularly with a climate package designed to supercharge the U.S.'s clean-energy transition.

Interview:
-Masakazu Takeda, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Japan fund, believes this year's Japan rally is well-founded, given the country's ongoing efforts to improve profitability and efficiency. Hennessy Japan has outperformed peers and the Nikkei in the past 12 months and over the past 10 and 15 years, according to Morningstar. Takeda's recent interview with Barron's reveals why he has turned bullish and what he is buying now. Japan's stock market has seen a significant recovery, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 index achieving a 16% year-to-date increase, ahead of the S&P 500 index's 9% return. This is due to Japanese companies' efforts to improve profitability and efficiency, as well as increased investor activism and Warren Buffett's surprise visit to Japan in 2023.

Tech Trader:
-no update this week

The Trader:
-The stock market appears to be moving at a steady pace, with the S&P 500 index up 9% this year after a third consecutive weekly gain. However, a new set of stocks has been leading the charge, benefiting from higher expectations of lower interest rates. The financials-heavy Dow Jones Industrial Average is beating the tech-heavier S&P 500, rising eight days in a row for the first time since December. The Dow is now 0.7% off its all-time highs, just 25 years after the publication of the book Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting from the Greatest Bull Market in History. The Dow streak is not record-breaking, but it's a good sign. Tried-and-true Dow stocks have been outpacing tech names, with Goldman Sachs Group outpacing Nvidia by 15 percentage points in the past month. Utility stocks have been the best performers, with the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF going on a seven-day winning streak. Investors are looking forward to the Federal Reserve cutting rates, although the central bank has given few explicit signs of cuts.
- Canada, with the world's third-greatest oil reserves, has been unable to capitalize on its underground resources due to a lack of pipelines to transport oil to markets. The Trans Mountain Pipeline, a government-owned project from Alberta to Vancouver, has started operations after seven years of waiting. The new infrastructure will triple capacity, allowing Canadian producers to ship an additional 590,000 barrels of oil per day to customers. This will allow Canadian producers to ship their oil to Asia or customers on the West Coast of the U.S., reducing the cross-border embarrassment of selling oil at a discount to U.S. refineries. The spread between U.S. and Canadian oil prices has shrunk to $13, and some analysts believe it will eventually slip into the single digits. The Permian Basin, the center of shale-drilling in the U.S., has experienced growth constrained by a lack of pipelines, similar to Canada's tar sands area. However, several producers should still benefit from the pipeline network expansion.

Features:
-A solar storm has reached Earth, and this has some implications for investors. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) warned of a likely "severe geomagnetic storm," which can interfere with communications and potentially impact the power grid. Investors can take precautionary steps, as outages can impact utility companies' shares, but they typically recover after acute problems. A severe 2021 winter storm in Texas resulted in heavy power outages, introducing volatility into shares of NRG Energy and Vistra. Shares of generator manufacturer Generac also tend to be volatile around hurricane season, with high dealer inventories impacting production and earnings for over a year. Schneider Electric, an electrical component and software supplier, believes that technology can help mitigate the worst impacts of extreme weather, using artificial intelligence to predict weak points and distributed generation assets to improve grid resilience.
-The Biden administration is considering quadrupling the import tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles, potentially increasing it to around 100% from 25%. This would provide US producers with more protection, but the stock of US car makers is falling due to the uncertainty. The Chinese auto industry is the world's largest market for new cars and electric vehicles, processing most battery materials. The existing 25% tariff only affects Lotus Technology and Polestar Automotive, which make their EVs at facilities in China owned by car maker Geely. Rising tariffs would be most hurt by these companies, which sell high-end EVs. However, the impact on the overall US EV market will be small, as Polestar delivered 2,210 cars in the first quarter for a market share of 0.8%. Ford Motor, General Motors, and Tesla would likely benefit the most from additional protections as big US auto makers.

Europe:
-The Bank of England (BOE) has kept interest rates on hold, with the first cut expected to occur in June. BOE policymakers stopped raising interest rates last year and have kept them unchanged ever since. The UK's falling inflation rate could allow the BOE to lower borrowing costs sooner than the Federal Reserve. Two out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to lower interest rates this month, suggesting a shift in sentiment. The next BOE meeting is scheduled for June, with another decision due in August. The market is pricing in a first cut around September for the Fed. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey said a change in bank rate in June is neither ruled out nor a fait accompli. The possibility of a divergence from the US comes as the BOE updates its forecasts for economic growth and inflation.

Emerging Markets:
-Saudi Arabia has become one of the world's fastest-changing societies under the leadership of Mohammed bin Salman. Under his leadership, female employment has doubled and entertainment and leisure industries have sprung to life. The Saudi Exchange has hosted 70 initial public stock offerings since early 2022, with 50 years of progress in the market. Riyadh is dangling enhanced defense cooperation with the U.S., keeping China as its biggest oil customer, and restoring diplomatic relations with regional rival Iran. Careful investors can capitalize on this positive momentum, as they are looking for companies that can crank out double-digit earnings growth. The International Monetary Fund projects Saudi Arabia's non-oil economy to grow by 4% annually this decade. Shares in gym operator Leejam Sports and IT consultant Elm Co. have soared over the past 18 months.

Commodities:
-The oil industry is experiencing a surge in mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Diamondback Energy, and Occidental Petroleum announcing transformative oil deals worth over $150B. British oil giant BP is also considering an acquisition, but not an oil company. BP is considering buying something in the low-carbon industry, possibly in an area like biofuels. This comes as BP has pulled back on some of its existing low-carbon efforts amid weakening returns. BP CEO Murray Auchincloss said that the company wasn't planning to go in that direction due to high oil prices. However, the company has been adding low-carbon assets at a time when solar and wind businesses have struggled. BP agreed to buy Lightsource in November, a utility-scale solar and battery storage company where it already had an equity stake. BP has one of the more ambitious low-carbon agendas among oil majors, with plans to invest in 50 gigawatts of renewable energy projects by 2030. However, the company has been pulling back on some low-carbon investments, such as plans for a major offshore wind farm near New York.

Streetwise:
-Artificial-intelligence companies are leading the way in mentioning "edge" in their earnings calls, with chip maker Advanced Micro Devices and memory maker Western Digital highlighting the growth opportunity of AI at the edge. Qualcomm and Procter & Gamble have also made significant mentions of edge computing, with Amazon Web Services defining it as "the process of bringing information storage and computing abilities closer to the devices that produce that information and the users who consume it." This trend is similar to the early 1990s, when personal computers were obsolete and processing power primarily lived on user machines, with each new version of the Microsoft Windows operating system requiring more of it.