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FT : Far right wins first round of France’s snap election, survey shows

Far right wins first round of France’s snap election, survey shows
President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists fall to third place behind leftwing alliance

Marine Le Pen’s far-right party has battered President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in the first round of snap parliamentary elections, moving France closer to a potential nationalist government that would jolt the European project.

After unusually high turnout, the Rassemblement National (RN) party won 34.5 per cent of the vote, while the leftwing Nouveau Front Populaire alliance came in second with 28.5 per cent, according to projections by the pollster Ifop at 8pm local time. Macron’s Ensemble alliance secured 22.5 per cent of the vote.


Speaking from Hénin-Beaumont, her constituency in northern France where she easily won re-election, Le Pen hailed a result that “practically erased” Macron’s centrist bloc. “The French have expressed their desire to turn the page on seven years of a government that treated them with disdain,” she said before cheering supporters waving French flags.

Macron lauded voters for coming out en masse to vote, saying the record turnout “testifies to the importance of this vote for all our compatriots and the desire to clarify the political situation”. 

“Faced with the Rassemblement National, the time has come for a large, clear alliance between democratic and republican forces for the second round,” he said in a statement.

The projections suggest the RN and its allies are on track to win the most seats in the National Assembly and potentially even an outright majority in the final round of voting on July 7. If the RN were to secure 289 seats in the 577-strong lower house, it would force Macron into an uncomfortable power-sharing arrangement known as a “cohabitation” in which two opposing parties must govern together.


However, the vote has led to an unprecedented number of three-way run-offs, which make seat projections difficult. An intense period of bargaining will now begin between leftwing and centrist parties over whether to drop out in some contests in an attempt to block the RN from winning. Parties must finalise their candidate lists in 48 hours.

Ipsos estimated that there would be 285 to 315 potential three-way run-offs, assuming that no candidates withdraw.

The snap vote has badly backfired for Macron, who voluntarily called for it earlier this month after his centrist alliance lost to the RN in European parliamentary elections — in a move that stunned the public and angered many even in his own camp.

His centrist alliance could end up losing more than half of its roughly 250 seats in the lower house, as it is squeezed between an ascendant far right and the newly united left.

By contrast, the far right, which has not been in power since the Vichy regime collaborated with Nazi Germany in 1940-1944, could move from the fringes of politics to the heart of government. It would be the culmination of Le Pen’s decade-long efforts to “detoxify” the party, including by ousting her father, who founded it with a former soldier from the French unit of the Nazi’s Waffen-SS.

Many French voters have come to reject Macron, who they see as elitist and out of touch, and prefer Le Pen’s RN for its emphasis on cost of living issues and wages, on top of its traditional anti-immigration stance.

If the RN wins an outright majority and forms a government, Le Pen has already said her 28-year-old protégé Jordan Bardella would serve as prime minister. They would run domestic affairs and set the budget, while Macron would remain chief of the armed forces and set foreign policy. There have been three cohabitations in France’s postwar history, but none involving parties with such diametrically opposite views.  

Le Pen and Bardella have both signalled in recent days that they would challenge the president’s authority including on defence and foreign policy — a prospect that is likely to alarm allies and markets alike.

The leftwing NFP also performed strongly on Sunday as voters backed its heavy tax-and-spend economic agenda that also focuses on social justice and investing more to improve public services.

The NFP’s dominant party is the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed or LFI) led by anti-capitalist firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon. It also includes the centre-left Socialists, the Greens and the Communists, who have major policy differences with LFI and have so far rejected Mélenchon as their PM candidate.

Bruno Cautrès, political scientist at Sciences Po university in Paris, said it was too early to make accurate seat projections. “There are two unknowns for the second round — how many candidates will drop out and how leftwing and centrist voters will behave if they know that the RN is on the verge of power,” he said.

The best-case scenario for Macron at this point would be a hung parliament with none of the three blocs able to claim a majority. Gridlock would ensue, but he could make a last-ditch effort to form a technocratic government. Macron cannot dissolve parliament again until a year from now.

On Sunday night, all the parties in the leftwing NFP, including Mélenchon’s far-left LFI, said they would tactically drop out of races where their candidate was in third place.

“We must give an absolute majority to the NFP because it is the only alternative,” said Mélenchon in front of his supporters in Paris. “It’s not about just vote against or wanting to block the RN. It’s about voting for another future that is respectful towards all people.”

FT : Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella — the French far right’s ticket to rule

Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella — the French far right’s ticket to rule
The party leader anointed her youthful protégé as prime minister in waiting but office may come sooner than either expected

The French far-right leader Marine Le Pen and party chief Jordan Bardella wore broad smiles as they pitched their “ticket” to voters with a view to taking power in 2027 — with her as president and him as prime minister. 

Using the original English word, the official unveiling of their duo in January was a new move in the context of French politics, where the president is elected directly and the post holds powerful institutional functions. Prime ministers are named afterwards to run the government and often sacrificed when presidents need to reboot in a crisis.

The announcement in a joint interview underlined how Le Pen had anointed the 28-year-old Bardella as the face of the new, professionalised Rassemblement National (RN) that she had spent more than a decade building. She was betting that her chances of succeeding her longtime rival, the centrist President Emmanuel Macron, were stronger with Bardella at her side. 

Le Pen last week told the Financial Times that she came up with the “ticket” as part of a strategy to prepare the French public to choose the RN. “The more people know us and the more they know precisely what we will do, the more they will be able to turn their backs on the caricatures and fears about us that are stirred up by our adversaries,” she said. 

But now the strength of the bond between Le Pen, aged 55, and her much younger lieutenant could be tested in the political turmoil touched off by Macron’s decision to call snap elections for the National Assembly. The president made the shock move after his centrist alliance was trounced in this month’s European elections where the RN list led by Bardella won 31 per cent of the vote to his 15 per cent. 

In the first leg of the two-round legislative election on Sunday, the anti-immigration, populist RN appeared ascendant once again, setting up the possibility that Bardella could be propelled to the premiership in a matter of weeks. Projections from the pollster Ipsos placed the RN on 34 per cent, putting it on track to win the most seats in parliament and potentially even an outright majority in the final round of voting on July 7.  

The RN has proved adept at appealing to people worried about the cost of living amid inflation, and has tapped into discontent about declining public services while exploiting anger at a lofty president Macron.

Despite the duo’s polished sales pitch, Le Pen and Bardella still have a radical agenda that would roil French society. It includes policies such as slashing immigration, ending birthright citizenship and creating a “national preference” for French citizens on social housing and welfare programmes.

In the Elysée palace, officials have long suggested in private that the pair will turn on each other in a quest for power. They seized on recent polling showing the protégé Bardella had eclipsed the mentor Le Pen in popularity and that more people would greet his accession to the presidency favourably than hers. 

Asked if he could push aside Le Pen to run himself in 2027, Bardella told the FT: “No, no, no. I do not have that ambition.” He has a large portrait of himself and Le Pen hanging in his office and still uses the formal vous to address her, although she has told him he does not have to.

Le Pen added: “The idea that I would be upset that he is more popular in polls than me, on the contrary, I’m delighted . . . I will need a popular prime minister to govern France.” 

In 2011, Le Pen officially took over the movement her father Jean-Marie helped create almost 40 years earlier. But before that, she had come to believe that the party needed to distance itself from the baggage of its founders, including her father and the journalist Pierre Bousquet, who was in the French division of the Waffen-SS during the second world war. 

With historical roots in fascism, the Front National (FN), as the party was originally called, remained on the fringes of French politics because of Jean-Marie. He was convicted in 1990 of hate speech for once likening the Nazi gas chambers to a “detail of history”.

France at the time was still reckoning with the historical legacy of Vichy collaboration with Nazi Germany, making the FN radioactive for most voters. At the age of eight, when Le Pen was growing up as the youngest of three daughters in Paris, a large bomb targeting her father destroyed the family home. No one was hurt, and the crime never solved.

After training as a lawyer, Le Pen practised for around six years before entering the family business: politics. In 2002, Jean-Marie surprisingly made the presidential run off, setting off mass anti-FN protests which led in turn to a crushing victory for the incumbent, Jacques Chirac.

It was then that the daughter set out to change things, according to Louis Aliot, the mayor of Perpignan, who broke with Jean-Marie to side with his daughter, with whom he was formerly in a relationship. “We were both from a younger generation, so we’re not obsessed with the past,” he said. “After the protests against us, we decided that we had to change the FN from the inside.” 

The project to “detoxify” the party became Le Pen’s mission. She changed its name in 2018, a classic marketing strategy to make voters forget the past. She had already ousted her father from the party in 2015, and expunged other radical elements, although critics say traces of its antisemitic, racist past remain. Gradually she shifted the RN’s platform to emphasise cost of living issues and play off the supposed contempt that Parisian elites have for rural areas. 

In Macron, Le Pen had her perfect opponent — a former banker, a product of top French educational institutions and a technocrat who wanted to liberalise the economy and boost the EU.

But in the 2017 presidential election, she lost to him by a wide margin, wounded by a weak debate performance. That defeat propelled her and the RN leadership into a bout of soul-searching. She and her closest cadres sought to rebuild both by boosting her policy expertise on issues from defence to the economy, and training up a new crop of politicians formed at the local level. They came to be known as “generation Marine”. 

Among them was Bardella, who says he first saw Le Pen on stage at a rally when he was 16 years old. She so impressed him that he joined her party the next day, going on to promote it in his hometown of Saint-Denis, a working-class and immigrant area north of Paris where he lived with his mother.

In 2015, he created a group in Saint-Denis called “Banlieues Patriotes” that sought to woo residents of the diverse and disaffected neighbourhoods on the Paris periphery. According to French media, he once handed out flyers that said “Muslims, maybe, but French first”.

His activities put him on Le Pen’s radar. They met at a gathering of young RN activists convened by the party leader at a pizzeria in Nanterre after a local election. She sat next to him and by the end of lunch had asked him to work on her 2017 campaign. “I was a bit intimidated by her given my young age,” he said, but agreed to the job. 

“He seemed a disciplined and articulate young man, who I found very French, with the way he dressed and an elegance,” Le Pen said.  

Le Pen and her team helped craft a narrative around Bardella, emphasising his childhood in social housing with a divorced mother who struggled to make ends meet. He has said his views were shaped by seeing the ravages of drug dealing and crime in his local area and riots that erupted in 2005 after two adolescents died during a police chase.

The actual story was slightly different. Bardella’s father was a small-business owner who sent him to private Catholic schools and gave him a more bourgeois upbringing, according to a biography by Pierre-Stéphane Fort. He did not complete his studies in geography at university and has not held a private-sector job.

Pascal Humeau, a media trainer who worked with Bardella for four years, said the politician was a “pure product of marketing” who followed Le Pen’s line. Humeau helped him adopt a more confident speaking style and start every media appearance with direct eye contact and a strong bonjour. “Who is Jordan Bardella really? We don’t know,” he said.

When Le Pen passed over more senior cadres to put the then 23-year-old at the top of the RN list for European elections in 2019, some warned her it was too risky. He came in first, one point ahead of Macron’s list. 

With Bardella, the RN has won parts of the electorate previously wary of Le Pen, including women, white-collar workers with diplomas and the business community. The biggest influencer in French politics, he has a large TikTok following that has helped attract young voters. He has also focused more on identity politics than Le Pen, declaring recently that there was a “cultural battle” to be fought against Islamism in France.

Will the “ticket” prevail or will it unravel as opponents predict?

“The ticket is very solid,” Bardella told the FT wryly. “It is printed on thick paper that will not tear.” 

Miss Tweed : LVMH: Good timing on watches

LVMH: Good timing on watches

The luxury investment community got excited this week when it found out that LVMH CEO and controlling shareholder Bernard Arnault had personally acquired a small stake in Richemont as part of his many investments. Immediately many people thought: Arnault is preparing a bid for Richemont, owner of the No. 1 jeweler Cartier and the success story Van Cleef & Arpels.

If Arnault was really planning to make an offer for Richemont, he would not have let the world know that he had invested in the Swiss luxury group. That’s not his way of doing things. The information was released by his entourage as part of a profile published in Bloomberg Businessweek on Tuesday. Neither the precise size of his stake nor the timing of the investment was given. It’s likely that Arnault, a shrewd investor, bought Richemont shares several months ago, in December or January, when they were around 25-30 percent cheaper. In terms of business, Arnault knows exactly what’s happening at all of his rivals since he gets the numbers from the owners of department stores and malls. So he knows when it’s a good time to buy their shares. LVMH declined to comment on the move.

The fact that Arnault let it be known is interesting. It could be his way of signaling to Richemont that the door is open if ever the group’s Chairman and controlling shareholder Johann Rupert wanted to build some sort of alliance with LVMH. In January, when Arnault presented the group’s annual results, he said he had good relations with Rupert, adding that if the Richemont Chairman “needs support to maintain his independence, I will be there.” Buying a stake in Richemont is a nudge, a way for Arnault to remind Rupert that he’s open to discussions should Rupert be interested.

Arnault loves keeping everyone guessing about his next move. He told Businessweek the group was still on the prowl for acquisitions. “I know several brands would fit very well, and I know that the owners would be very happy,” he told the magazine. On his target list are Armani and Prada and watch giants such Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet, according to industry sources. However, all of these brands have said publicly that they are keen to remain independent and have organized themselves accordingly. However, should they suddenly have a change of heart, they know which door to knock on.

The news of Arnault’s stake in Richemont overshadowed another move by LVMH that speaks volumes about the group’s eagerness to expand and become an even bigger player in watchmaking.

L'EPÉE
On the same day Arnault’s interview was published, LVMH announced its acquisition of L’Epée 1839, a prestigious name and Switzerland’s last remaining manufacturer of high-end table clocks. In recent weeks, there had been industry chatter about LVMH being in talks to buy a watchmaker on top of Vaucher Manufacture Fleurier, which it is looking at now.

Now we know who it is. But it may not stop here. LVMH and archrivals Richemont, Chanel and Hermès are in an arms race to secure suppliers and acquire the savoir-faire needed for a competitive edge. Since L’Epée is unique in its field, for LVMH it made a lot of sense to buy it.

The business is not tiny. Revenue is estimated to be more than €60 million. Sales rose 40 percent last year, and the company expects roughly the same level of growth this year. This is quite a feat considering that the Swiss watch industry is going through a downturn and that Swiss watch exports have declined since the beginning of the year.

L’Epée gives LVMH access to rare skills and know-how. The company’s creations are all produced in-house from beginning to end, from the escapements to the polishing of every element. The wheels and the many parts making up the movement of a table clock are much bigger than those used in watches.

L’Epée masters the art of complications – other features than giving the time – such as retrograde seconds, power reserve indicators, perpetual calendars, tourbillons and striking mechanisms. One of its best-sellers is a blue cylinder-shaped race car called Time Fast that costs 39,375 Swiss francs excluding VAT. Another is an object in the form of a hand grenade that comes in all sorts of bright colors fitted with a vertical movement. It costs 10,900 Swiss francs excluding VAT. L’Epée’s vast collection includes table clocks in the shape of spiders, towers, robots, hot air balloons and medusas, retailing between €5,000 and €55,000.

In 2014, to celebrate its 175th anniversary, the company released a Two Hands Flying Tourbillon table clock designed by Vincent Calabrese and limited to two pieces that cost 500,000 Swiss francs each.

TIFFANY & CO.
L’Epée has been supplying customized table clocks to several LVMH brands for years. One of its oldest customers is US jeweler Tiffany & Co., with which it has been working for more than 40 years. LVMH bought Tiffany in 2021. Since last year, Tiffany has been selling L’Epée’s popular race car clocks in its trademark robin’s egg blue, retailing at $42,000 excluding VAT, and since January, it has offered a New York-style taxi clock costing $55,000.

The deal with LVMH came about naturally. Starting last year, L’Epée has been supplying Louis Vuitton with customized Hot Balloon clocks. The luxury brand wanted to increase its orders but L’Epée did not have the financial resources to lease the machines and rent the extra space to increase production. The initiator of the transaction with LVMH was José Fernandes, who runs La Fabrique du Temps, the provider of movements for Louis Vuitton watches, a business overseen by Jean Arnault, Bernard Arnault’s youngest son. Negotiations were subsequently led by Jean’s older brother Frédéric Arnault, who used to run TAG Heuer and is in charge of LVMH’s watch division since January.

“We've been through a number of crises over the last 15 years, while maintaining our capacity for growth,” L’Epée CEO and artistic director Arnaud Nicolas told Miss Tweed in a telephone interview. “But today our financial capacities no longer allow us to invest at the level demanded by the market.” The Arnault family made an offer that Nicolas and his business partner Sébastien Mérillat could not refuse, not only in terms of valuation but also in that LVMH allows them to continue collaborating with any brand they wish. Chanel applies the same philosophy to its own suppliers. Working for many different brands feeds creativity. “To be able to work for whomever you want is essential to continue to be challenged,” Nicolas said.

In 2009 Nicolas and his associate bought a company called Swiza, the parent of L’Epée and table clock brands Matthew Norman and Swiza 1904. Back then, the business was nearly bankrupt. It took several years before it started breaking even. Sales really started to take off in 2011 when it introduced audacious table clocks that it calls “kinetic sculptures,” like the Duel, which features two sword-shaped retrograde second hands that fly back and cross every twenty seconds. The swords are meant to evoke the battle with time.

MB&F
Another boost came from the brilliant watchmaker Maximilian Büsser, founder and CEO of the popular MB&F watch brand known for its futuristic designs and three-dimensional cases. Büsser is a highly regarded creative mind and a positive force in the ruthless world of watchmaking as he’s always there to help those in need, industry sources say. Büsser started collaborating with L’Epée in 2014 and since then, has helped raise the company’s profile with his audacious designs. Industry experts say Büsser gave L’Epée a certain coolness it did not have really before.

“We created a new niche with L’Epée: mechanical sculptures that tell the time,” Büsser told Miss Tweed. “For me, it opened up a whole new world of possibilities. I’m very happy to have helped develop this beautiful house.” The watchmaker has provided L’Epée with 15 new designs and plans to present a new collaboration with the company at the Geneva Watch Days at the end of August. L'Epée is a rare company. There are not that many table-clock makers left in Western Europe. You have for example Germany’s Hermle, owned and run by the Hermle family for four generations. It makes relatively traditional wooden and steel table clocks. One was commissioned by the German government as a gift to King Charles III during his state visit to Germany last year with Queen Camilla. There is also the UK’s AMS Clocks, which produces a vast range of timepieces including grandfather clocks. Both companies are said to be struggling financially, as clocks are not a top-of-the-mind item for many people these days. They tend to be regarded as old-fashioned and ill-suited for modern living spaces.

“Collectors over 40 all remember their parents’ or grandparents’ house with a clock,” Nicolas remarked. “It was often the main feature of the house. People used to save money to buy a clock.” Thanks to L’Epée, watch lovers have rediscovered table clocks and it’s now quite the status symbol to have a L’Epée in your living room.

Founded in 1839 by Auguste L’Épée, the company started as a provider of horological objects, watch components and music boxes. It sold the music box division to rival Reuge after World War II to replenish its coffers and focus on table clocks. Two years ago, as Reuge was facing financial difficulties, it was acquired by high-end watchmaker De Bethune, part of the retail and second-hand watch group the 1916 Company, which used to be called WatchBox. For De Bethune the idea was the same as for LVMH: to preserve unique savoir-faire and widen the scope of creativity.

THE SWORD
LVMH is still on the lookout for more acquisitions in watchmaking, industry sources say. The French group is currently competing against Hermès – and possibly Richemont – to acquire the provider of high-end movements Vaucher Manufacture and other watch parts suppliers put up for sale by the Sandoz Foundation earlier this year, as Miss Tweed reported last week.

“Right now, they are deep in the due diligence process, sending questions to management,” one source with knowledge of the talks said of the bidders. “It’s likely that bids will be made next month and a deal announced before the end of the summer,” the industry source added.

When it comes to acquisitions, LVMH is like the famous Louis Vuitton canvas tote that bears the name “Neverfull.”

The group clearly takes its watchmaking interests seriously, but that didn’t stop somebody from LVMH from joking this week on the back of its acquisition of L’Epée – which means “sword” in French. Miss Tweed was speaking with this person about the Vaucher deal and mentioned Guillaume de Seynes, the Hermès executive who is leading the talks on Vaucher.

“This is the battle of his career, he’ll give it everything he’s got and die on the sword if he has to,” Miss Tweed said of de Seynes. To which the person from LVMH replied, “We bought L’Epée!”