>>> Apple - Cash Pile - Share Buyback / Warren Buffet --> Negative reading

Warren Buffett sold another $14.3 BILLION of Apple stock, $AAPL, during Q3 2024.

This means Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has now sold ~$100 BILLION of $AAPL stock over the last 2 quarters.

Warren Buffett has now reduced his holdings of $AAPL for 4 straight quarters.

Berkshire Hathaway currently holds $69.9 billion of $AAPL.
Warren Buffett is now building his cash balance at an unprecedented rate, even as the market hits new records.

Berkshire Hathaway just announced that they are FREEZING buybacks and holding $325 BILLION of cash.

Berkshire Hathaway repurchased $0 of stock in Q3 2024.

This compares to $345 million in Q2 2023 and $2 billion in each of the 2 prior quarters.

Berkshire said it will buy back stock when Buffett “believes that the repurchase price is below Berkshire’s intrinsic value."


Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway increased their cash pile to a record $325.2 BILLION.

Warren Buffett avoided any large acquisitions and trimmed large portions of his holdings.

As seen in the chart below, Buffett's cash balance has skyrocketed over the last 2 years.


This cash balance is larger than the market cap of all but 27 public companies in the world.

In fact, Buffett's cash pile is now larger than the market cap of Netflix, $NFLX, and Bank of America, $BAC.

This should send warning signs to the market on Monday.

FT : Warren Buffett slashes Apple stake as he boosts cash to record high

Warren Buffett slashes Apple stake as he boosts cash to record high
Berkshire’s stock-selling spree extends for eighth quarter, with $166bn dumped over the period

Warren Buffett continued to slash his stake in Apple as part of a selling spree that has seen his Berkshire Hathaway dump $166bn worth of stocks over the past two years, with the Oracle of Omaha finding few other opportunities to chase in the US stock market.

The sprawling industrial and investment conglomerate disclosed on Saturday that it had reduced its position in Apple to $69.9bn in the third quarter, indicating it had shed a further 100mn shares in the three-month period.

In just over a year, Buffett has ditched almost two-thirds of his stake in the technology company, which at its peak in 2023 accounted for $178bn of the company’s stock portfolio.

The stock sales are a dramatic shift by Buffett, given in 2022 he described Apple as one of Berkshire’s “four giants”, accounting for the bulk of the company’s value. At the company’s shareholder meeting in May he described the iPhone maker as “an even better business” than Coca-Cola and American Express, two of Berkshire’s longtime holdings.

“Unless something dramatically happens that really changes capital allocation strategy, we will have Apple as our largest investment,” Buffett told shareholders at the time.

“But I don’t mind at all, under current conditions, building the cash position,” he added. “I think when I look at the alternative of what’s available in the equity markets and I look at the composition of what’s going on in the world, we find it quite attractive.”


Buffett said that he believed there was a high likelihood the US federal government would raise tax rates in the coming years given the country’s sustained budget deficits, which would reduce Berkshire’s profits on future stock sales.

Berkshire reported on Saturday that it had generated gains of $97bn on the $133bn of stock it has sold this year, which after taxes amounted to a $76.5bn pay-off for the group.

“It’s still the greatest trade of all time by the greatest investor of all time,” said Christopher Rossbach, chief investment officer of longtime Berkshire shareholder J Stern & Co.

“The investment in Apple has defined his last decade and the fact that he is selling Apple now for valuation reasons is testament to his sticking to his principles at a scale that no one has before.”

The billionaire investor has been selling more than just Apple. Over the course of the three months to September, Berkshire sold $36.1bn of stocks, including part of its large position in Bank of America. In October, he reduced his stake in Bank of America below 10 per cent after selling more than $10.5bn worth of the US lender’s stock, an investment that dated back to the global financial crisis.

He has found little else to entice him in the US stock market, buying equities worth just $1.5bn. The 94-year-old has been jettisoning stocks at a remarkable clip, with Berkshire being a net seller of equities for eight consecutive quarters.

Even Berkshire shares were off-limits to the noted value investor, who controls the company’s stock buyback programme. Berkshire did not repurchase any of its shares in the third quarter.

Buffett in turn ploughed the proceeds from those sales back into short-term Treasury bills, pushing the company’s cash position to a record $325.2bn.


The sales raise questions over Buffett’s motivations and his investment outlook, with the investor stockpiling an enormous level of cash unseen in the investment world.

He has been content to earn the relatively high yields on short-term US Treasury bills, even as the Federal Reserve has started to cut interest rates. The company earned nearly $10bn in interest on its cash and Treasury position over the past 12 months, including $3.5bn in the third quarter.

He has built up the company’s cash position before, saying the mountain of liquidity gives Berkshire an ability to pounce in a crisis. However, the company has faced far better capitalised competitors in the years since the financial crisis. Heavyweights in the investment world, including Apollo and Blackstone, are often stepping in to finance companies looking to shore up their balance sheets.

It will set up a challenge for Buffett’s heir apparent, Greg Abel. The 62-year-old energy executive has been charged with leading Berkshire when Buffett eventually steps down, including having oversight over its $271.7bn stock portfolio.

The stock sales were disclosed as part of Berkshire’s quarterly earnings, which showed a decline in operating profits. The company’s insurance businesses have been buffeted by two hurricanes that pounded the south-east US.


Berkshire said Hurricane Helene resulted in losses of $565mn in the third quarter, and that it anticipated losses of between $1.3bn and $1.5bn in the fourth quarter from Hurricane Milton, which struck Florida days later.

The insurance business has also agreed to pay $535mn to resolve asbestos-related talcum powder liabilities, pushing its reinsurance unit to a loss for the quarter.

Overall, operating profits fell 6 per cent from a year earlier to $10.1bn. Buffett has long directed investors to its operating results, which do not include the swings in value of its mammoth stock portfolio. He has warned that reported net income is meaningless given the volatility of the stock market. In the quarter, net income swung to $26.3bn from a loss of $12.8bn a year before.

Class A shares of Berkshire have rallied 25 per cent this year, outpacing the total return of the S&P 500.

The Information : A Better Brain Chip Than Elon Musk’s?

A Better Brain Chip Than Elon Musk’s?
With money from Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates, scientist Tom Oxley’s startup has a less invasive device that could entice more patients than Elon Musk’s Neuralink.

Shortly after 2 a.m. on a Saturday in a midtown Manhattan sports bar packed with Aussies, Dr. Tom Oxley was feeling stunned. The underdog Brisbane Lions, his longtime favorite Australian rules football club, was up 73 to 27 against the Sydney Swans going into the second half of the championship match.

“It’s a good start,” Oxley acknowledged, clad in his typical game-day fit, a maroon, blue and yellow Lions jersey.

Most days and nights, Oxley, 44, is holed up in Brooklyn’s Navy Yards at the headquarters for Synchron, the brain chip startup he founded with backing from the likes of Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates. But he stole away whenever he could in September to watch the Lions unexpectedly advance in the playoffs. In a later conversation, Oxley would liken his fandom for the Lions—which started when he attended games with his father—to a startup’s “scrappy bootstrap mentality.” He added: “It’s also quite Australian to relish the underdog.”

That’s a useful mentality for Oxley to carry back with him to Brooklyn. Within the burgeoning race to design and commercialize brain chip implants, Elon Musk’s Neuralink has the same status as the Sydney Swans do within Australian rules football: Both are attention-consuming favorites. And yet there’s Oxley and 12-year-old Synchron, which has raised about $145 million.

The company’s device targets patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, also known as Lou Gehrig’s disease, or stroke and spinal cord injuries who experience significant paralysis. It helps them control computer screens with their thoughts. Chief Commercial Officer Kurt Haggstrom estimates that the U.S. market includes up to “millions” of people. Morgan Stanley—which expects such brain devices to become available in 2030—projected last month that companies will generate more than $500 million in collective revenue each year in the U.S. from selling these implants by 2036.

Could Synchron pull off a Brisbane Lions–type upset over Musk? Certainly no other company is better positioned to do so. Synchron is further along in the Food and Drug Administration’s approval process than most other commercial brain chip companies, and it has installed its device in 10 people, the first of whom received it in 2019. (Neuralink implanted chips into its first patient, and then another, earlier this year.)

Importantly, unlike Neuralink, Synchron’s device doesn’t require open brain surgery, which could make it easier to commercialize. Instead, doctors feed it into the brain through a patient’s jugular vein. At all times the chip remains inside the blood vessels. It’s not a quick, prosaic type of outpatient surgery, but it’s not as risky as sawing open someone’s skull. The strategy mirrors a broader change in medicine, and that approach is what most investors point to when asked how the company can compete with Musk.

“The shift in most surgical procedures is towards more and more of these minimally invasive intravascular procedures,” explained Alex Morgan, a Khosla Ventures partner.

When I asked Oxley about the competition between Synchron and Neuralink, Oxley said he is “honored” to be considered a Musk rival. “I’ve revered him for a long time, and I’ve looked up to him,” said Oxley, who drives a Tesla. (His board has jokingly suggested he give up the car—lest Musk listen in.) “He’s shifted the way that we think about things in a positive way in areas that needed shifting.”

Asked why investors give him money instead of Musk, Oxley has a simple response: “Because people like their skulls…that’s probably the best reason. Because I think the ultimate solution is going to be: People want to have their bodies disturbed as little as possible.”

Musk has taken notice of Synchron, too. Two years ago, around the time Synchron implanted its first U.S. patient with its device, Musk called Oxley out of the blue one weekend, and they talked for an hour about how to gain access to different parts of the brain, Oxley recalled. Musk’s approach was to remove a substantial portion of the skull and replace it with an electronic embedded titanium shell, while Oxley contended that there were ways of getting there without touching the skull, he said. (Musk didn’t respond to requests for comment for this story.)

The conversation ended with what appeared to be a funding offer. Musk “basically said to me if I am capital constrained in that endeavor to achieve that goal—especially towards a whole brain interface—that he would like to be helpful,” Oxley said. The investment never materialized.

Underpinning Oxley’s 12-year devotion to building Synchron are his formative experiences as a physician. He points to a harrowing stint early in his medical career on a ward for Lou Gehrig’s disease “They would come there to die,” he recalled. Until recently, Oxley still saw patients at Mount Sinai Hospital, doing about 50 procedures a year to treat patients who had suffered strokes, ruptured aneurysms and other “life-threatening brain explosions,” such as hemorrhages.

The roots of his fascination with the human brain lie in his interest in Friedrich Nietzche, the 19th-century German thinker whose own brain deteriorated from syphilis, and other philosophers. As a young man, Oxley became “obsessed” with figuring out how the human brain can ask itself deep, reflective questions. “What happened in us that was different from other animals? What was it about the making up of the brain that generated consciousness, that made us ask these questions, that then started to lead us down this pathway of self discovery?”

A few days before the big game, Oxley and I met in Synchron’s industrial Brooklyn Navy Yard office. There he showed me the newest iteration of the company’s device, the Stentrode, gingerly withdrawing the tiny gizmo—slightly longer than the spring of a ballpoint pen—from a hefty aluminum briefcase.

Researchers have been testing brain chip implants in humans for roughly two decades, and some have attained impressive results beyond controlling cursors on computer screens. Paralyzed patients have been able to control robotic arms with certain implants in academic experiments. But virtually all these devices have involved cutting through the skull and piercing electrodes into patients’ brains with wires dangling out of their heads.

To avoid all that, Synchron’s approach is to feed a needle and tube through the jugular vein all the way to the top of the brain. The Stentrode is then pushed through the tube into the brain, where it expands and mounts onto the wall of the superior sagittal sinus, a blood vessel close to the brain’s motor cortex—the movement command center. Any brain signals the Stentrode detects are sent down through an electrical wire that runs back through the vein and plugs into an iPod Shuffle–size receiver sewn into a person’s chest. Batteries last 10 years, similar to those in a cardiac pacemaker.

That receiver transmits commands via Bluetooth to a patient’s computer or iPad, allowing them to access text messages and control other applications. Once the Stentrode is installed, patients go through calibration exercises, with Synchron staff instructing them to think about moving different parts of their body.

Synchron’s Stentrode isn’t the only such device people with paralysis can use. Eye trackers have been hot spots for innovation in recent years. Apple, for example, revamped its eye-tracking features in its latest iOS update. Still, eye trackers can be tiring for some patients, and selecting things on the screen can be finicky given that it requires people to stare at one spot for a certain amount of time. Plus, the most severe states of paralysis, like locked-in syndrome, limit even eye movements.

Hiding electrodes inside blood vessels as opposed to lodging them in the brain has limitations. The sensors don’t detect electrical signals with the level of strength or detail Neuralink does, which Oxley acknowledges. But that doesn’t phase the Synchron investors I spoke with. “The fact that you get any signal at all is kind of amazing,” said Bob Nelsen, managing director of prolific biotech investing firm Arch Venture Partners, which led Synchron’s Series C two years ago. He suggested that advances in other parts of technology could help the company better analyze and understand the signal the sensor does get.

Synchron is currently developing a new version of its Stentrode, which, by Oxley’s estimate, can detect brain activity “about 10 times better” than the version implanted in the first 10 patients. He doesn’t know what that will mean in terms of functionality but suggests it could mean adding more-nuanced controls for computer screens.

In the long run, Synchron’s hope is to weave multiple, sensor-laden wires into different blood vessels around the brain to detect a much wider array of brain activity.

“The brain does different things in different regions,” said Oxley. “And if you ram a million electrodes into a tiny region, that whole bunch of neurons—they’re all doing the same thing.”

After about an hour of Oxley’s show-and-tell with the Stentrode—and a professorial lesson on brain anatomy—it seemed like an apt time to ask him why he committed himself to all this.

“I’m not religious—I don’t know why we’re here—but it seems to me the best way that you could spend your life is answering some of the mysteries and changing the way that we understand things in a way that helps us as a species move forward,” he said, leaning back in his chair after a long pause. “I chose the brain because it was the biggest mystery I could think of.”

Oxley frequently launched into these philosophical tangents, at one point sharing with me reflections from Carl Jung’s “The Red Book,” which was engrossing him in late September. Asked where all his ruminations come from, Oxley pointed to his father, a former diplomat who shaped his upbringing with strong opinions and “intellectual aggression.”

Oxley spent part of his childhood in Switzerland, where his dad represented Australia at the U.N.—at one point chairing a precursor organization to the World Trade Organization—before the family moved back Down Under. At the dinner table, his father would regularly grill him and his sisters on politics, culture and international affairs. The impromptu exams instilled a mentality of “Don’t open your mouth unless you absolutely know what you’re talking about,” Oxley recalled.

Eager for some distance from his diplomat father’s interests, Oxley decided to pursue medicine. “I figured if I move into a domain that was totally away from his expertise, he wouldn’t pound me to the ground with intellectual dogmatism.”

Oxley attended medical school in Australia, graduating in 2005, and pursued residencies in both internal medicine and psychiatry. He was particularly interested in the latter after watching two friends experience psychotic episodes, one from a psychedelic drug, the other from schizophrenia. But Oxley was shaken when a patient committed suicide. He grew frustrated with not being able to understand the biological mechanisms behind psychiatric conditions. Around the same time, he began reading about brain computer interfaces.

Oxley took a year off from training in 2010 and traveled through 35 countries, ending his tour in the U.S. There, he met Colonel Geoffry Ling, a neurologist who founded a biotech arm of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. Oxley impressed Ling and his team with an idea of using blood vessels to reach the brain. Weeks later, he had secured $1 million from DARPA to begin research back home in Australia.

To build some of the earliest prototypes of Synchron’s devices, he recalls going through the hospital trash to find disposed devices that had been used to remove brain clots. In one instance, a nurse reported him after seeing him pulling devices from the garbage, but he had approval from one of the doctors, so he kept doing it. After sterilizing them, Oxley would tinker with them and hook up sensors to them manually.

Oxley finished his doctorate in neuroscience in 2015 and then moved to New York for an interventional neurology fellowship at Mount Sinai. He continued doing lab research in Australia remotely. The fellowship had him working 100 hours a week, but he would use the time difference with Australia to his advantage, managing the lab at night in New York. In 2019, Synchron implanted its chip in the first of four Australia-based patients, each of whom was able to use the device over the course of a year without any serious side effects.

Oxley cites 2020 as the most painful period for building the company. Synchron had nearly $20 million in funding to that point, mostly from government grants, but was running out of cash. Meanwhile, Oxley was hitting a wall with investors. He grew frustrated when they turned him down, citing concerns about market size and whether Medicare might pay for the device.

“What happens is, you go and meet really smart people, and then they say no, and they say no in a million different ways,” he said.

Khosla Ventures eventually found Synchron while searching for patents related to brain chips that didn’t require removing part of the skull, and the firm led a $40 million funding round in 2021. Morgan, who led the deal, said Oxley has always been laser focused on patient outcomes. And his philosophy interests, in Morgan’s view, are emblematic of many successful entrepreneurs and executives.

“Pick the Charlie Mungers the world or the Jeff Bezoses—they actually wrote a lot about a general philosophy of the world and life,” Morgan said, attributing some of those individuals’ financial success to an “insatiable curiosity.” In 2022, Synchron implanted its chip in the first of six patients in the U.S. and raised another $75 million from Arch Ventures. Earlier this year, the company finished the first of two major FDA clinical trials, showing that the device was safe.

Still, the road to getting the chips approved and making any meaningful revenue remains long. Before Synchron starts the second trial, which will have to demonstrate that the device sufficiently helps patients, the company is planning another small trial for the newer version of the Stentrode.

Haggstrom, the chief commercial officer, anticipates it will take three to five years to begin selling the devices widely, in line with Morgan Stanley’s estimates. He acknowledged total customers in the first year after an FDA approval will probably be “more in the hundreds.” At an estimated price point of $60,000 to $100,000 per device, getting insurers on board will be another big hill to climb.

Oxley, 12 years into his journey, seems as energized as ever. “I’ll flip into complete, absolute nihilism if I don’t feel like I’m doing something that’s really worthwhile, and I couldn’t think of anything more worthwhile or more important than doing this.”

Deep down, he also hopes the Stentrode may one day be able to counter memory loss, an issue that has become more personal to him since his dad was diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease five years ago. He acknowledged that such a capability is still a long way away.

“It kind of is a bit frustrating that I’ve been so close to neurology—and I’m working in it day in, day out—and nothing I’ve done is going to help at all with him,” he said.

Back at the sports bar around 3:30 a.m., the crowd had begun to clear out as the Lions crystallized their blowout victory. They won 120 to 60, and several Swans fans came up to Oxley to offer their congratulations.

As Oxley looked up at the TV for another 15 minutes watching his team collect the trophy, he picked up the phone and dialed his folks back home in Melbourne, eager to share the moment with them. “I’m watching at a pub in New York,” he told them. His father came to the phone. “Hey, Dad, what do you think?” Oxley asked. “Are you watching?” Indeed he had been.

The Information : U.S. Regulators Block AWS Nuclear Power Deal

U.S. Regulators Block AWS Nuclear Power Deal

U.S. energy regulators on Friday rejected a proposal related to Amazon Web Services’ deal to buy nuclear power for several data centers for artificial intelligence in Pennsylvania, according to a public filing.

In a split vote, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission denied a request to increase the amount of power that would supply the data centers, putting the project in limbo. The agency said it had concerns that offloading a large amount of power from the energy grid, which AWS’ plan entails, could negatively affect customers and the grid’s reliability.

AWS planned to buy up to 1 gigawatt of power from Talen Energy, which owns a nuclear power plant located in Luzerne County, Pa., to power several data centers at the site. The deal, announced in March, was seen as a pathway for AWS to meet its growing need for AI data center power with clean energy, but it has been at the center of a larger debate around whether power serving the grid should be purchased by technology giants.

Willie Phillips, the chairman of FERC, who voted in favor of the plan, said Friday in a press release that “maintaining our nation’s leadership in this ‘era-defining’ technology will require a massive and unprecedented investment in the data centers necessary to develop and operate those AI models. And make no mistake: access to reliable electricity is the lifeblood of those data centers.”

It isn’t clear how AWS will proceed with its planned data center campus in Pennsylvania. It has invested in other nuclear projects in recent weeks. Spokespeople for FERC for AWS did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

WSJ : Some Fear Factory Boom Could Suffer Under Trump

Some Fear Factory Boom Could Suffer Under Trump
Former president disparages U.S. clean energy, chip laws credited with fueling investment in manufacturing

WASHINGTON—In the past few years, the U.S. has experienced an epic factory building boom. That could be at risk, some analysts and Democrats say. The reason: former President Donald Trump’s opposition to the laws that helped make it possible.

Private fixed investment in manufacturing structures reached an annual pace of $236 billion in the third quarter, more than double the rate at the height of Trump’s presidency after accounting for inflation. The last period in which factory investment grew this fast was at the height of the space race in the 1960s.

Some of that boom appears to be linked to the Chips and Science Act, funneling $53 billion in subsidies and tax credits toward semiconductor manufacturing facilities, and the Inflation Reduction Act, authorizing hundreds of billion dollars in tax credits and loans toward low-carbon technologies. President Biden signed both into law in 2022.

“The charts for this metric are kind of crazy when you look at them,” said Oren Cass, founder of American Compass, a think tank that advocates for Republicans to take up populist economic policies. He said this shows industrial policy, whereby the government encourages strategic or favored economic sectors, can boost the supply side of the economy.

“The IRA and the Chips Act have been wildly successful, I think beyond even the Biden administration’s initial expectations,” said Ernie Tedeschi, an economist at the Yale Budget Lab who served as chief economist on Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers.

The Chips law aims to expand the U.S. base for producing semiconductors vital to countless products from cars to artificial intelligence systems and military hardware while reducing dependence on geopolitically sensitive Taiwan, South Korea and China. The IRA is meant to hasten the transition to low-carbon energy while bolstering domestic manufacturing of the supporting equipment such as electric vehicles and batteries.

But Trump has criticized the laws as giveaways.

“We put up billions of dollars for rich companies to come in and borrow the money and build chip companies here, and they’re not going to give us the good companies anyway,” Trump said on Joe Rogan’s podcast on Oct. 26. “When I see us paying a lot of money to have people build chips, that’s not the way…You could have done it with a series of tariffs.”

In a September speech to the Economic Club of New York, he vowed to “rescind all unspent funds under the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act.” In a recent interview, John Paulson, a potential candidate for Treasury secretary in a Trump administration, said he would work with Elon Musk to scrap the IRA’s green-energy subsidies.

Trump has promised to deliver his own “manufacturing renaissance,” via lower taxes, regulations, and most of all, tariffs of 60% on imports from China and 10% to 20% on imports from everywhere else.

But economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted that if he is elected, Trump’s policies would lead to lower manufacturing employment than otherwise.

Democrats say Trump is putting manufacturing at risk. “Donald Trump is threatening to defund and dismantle thousands of manufacturing jobs across the country,” said Matt Corridoni, a spokesman for the Harris campaign.

A spokeswoman for the Trump campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Whether Trump could or would cut funding is unclear. It is unlikely a future Trump administration could claw back grants or loans already paid out. Denying IRA tax credits would require a change to the law that could be difficult for Trump to secure even if Republicans control both Senate and the House of Representatives.

Industry leaders note the Chips Act received bipartisan support, while the IRA has led to so many projects in red states that 18 House Republicans signed a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) urging him not to repeal it. Cass said a future Trump administration is more likely to curb IRA spending than Chips grants, given the latter’s bipartisan support.

Johnson on Friday told a reporter that Republicans “probably will” try to repeal the Chips Act if they control Congress and the White House, in a video the Harris campaign promptly shared. He later clarified that the Chips Act was “not on the agenda for repeal” but that Republicans might seek to “further streamline and improve the primary purpose” of the legislation by eliminating regulatory and environmental provisions.

But Trump could potentially stop or delay money that has yet to be disbursed, Tedeschi said. Some administration officials and the Harris campaign warn this could disrupt planned projects.

The Commerce Department has announced preliminary terms totaling $36 billion toward chip facilities being built by companies including Samsung, Intel, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., GlobalFoundries, and Micron Technology. Only $123 million has reached the step of being awarded—a grant to Polar Semiconductor last month. Disbursement of funds is contingent on the recipients meeting certain benchmarks.

Intel Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger on Thursday expressed disappointment with the pace of negotiations to obtain billions of dollars Commerce has pledged to the chip maker’s factories. “We’ve taken that out of our financials this year” as a result, he said. “We’re anxious for that to be finished.”

The Biden administration didn’t provide a figure on how much had been spent under the IRA.

At the Thursday announcement of a new Chips-funded R&D center at the Albany Nanotech Complex in New York’s capital region, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.), said the contract for the money “will be signed before December 31st. So, it’ll be done before whomever becomes president.”

At the same event New York’s Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, said, “This is important to our national security.” Undoing Chips is “basically saying, I want this to be done by our foreign adversaries. So, I believe that [Trump] will be persuaded that the right thing to do is to keep this in place.”

James Lewis, a technology expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Trump may not be able to undo the Chips Act, but could stop a hoped-for second round of funding. “That would be really damaging,” Lewis said, citing other countries’ competing incentives for semiconductor plants. “If we stop now, it’s a one-off and it won’t have a long-term effect.”

While Trump’s planned tariffs may help some domestic manufacturers compete against imports, economists say they will also drive up the cost of inputs that U.S. factories need to manufacture finished products, and spark retaliation from trading partners.

One such input is the advanced chip-making machines that the U.S. imports from Netherlands’ ASML Holding, considered essential to making the most advanced chips.

“A 20% tariff on that is definitely going to be noticeable to the semiconductor fab that wants to get up and running,” said Peter Harrell, a nonresident fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who served in the White House in 2021 and 2022.

TechCrunch : Quantum Machines and Nvidia use machine learning to get closer to a

Quick Resume :
Quantum Machines and Nvidia have collaborated to improve quantum computer calibration using machine learning. They successfully used reinforcement learning on Nvidia's DGX platform to better control qubits in a Rigetti quantum chip by continuously calibrating the π pulses. This constant calibration helps maintain high fidelity over time, which is crucial for quantum error correction. While this is a small step, it represents significant progress toward fault-tolerant quantum computing, and the companies plan to expand their collaboration with even more powerful computing platforms.


Full Article:
Quantum Machines and Nvidia use machine learning to get closer to an error-corrected quantum computer

About a year and a half ago, quantum control startup Quantum Machines and Nvidia announced a deep partnership that would bring together Nvidia’s DGX Quantum computing platform and Quantum Machine’s advanced quantum control hardware. We didn’t hear much about the results of this partnership for a while, but it’s now starting to bear fruit and getting the industry one step closer to the holy grail of an error-corrected quantum computer.

In a presentation earlier this year, the two companies showed that they are able to use an off-the-shelf reinforcement learning model running on Nvidia’s DGX platform to better control the qubits in a Rigetti quantum chip by keeping the system calibrated.

Yonatan Cohen, the co-founder and CTO of Quantum Machines, noted how his company has long sought to use general classical compute engines to control quantum processors. Those compute engines were small and limited, but that’s not a problem with Nvidia’s extremely powerful DGX platform. The holy grail, he said, is to run quantum error correction. We’re not there yet. Instead, this collaboration focused on calibration, and specifically calibrating the so-called “π pulses” that control the rotation of a qubit inside a quantum processor.

At first glance, calibration may seem like a one-shot problem: You calibrate the processor before you start running the algorithm on it. But it’s not that simple. “If you look at the performance of quantum computers today, you get some high fidelity,” Cohen said. “But then, the users, when they use the computer, it’s typically not at the best fidelity. It drifts all the time. If we can frequently recalibrate it using these kinds of techniques and underlying hardware, then we can improve the performance and keep the fidelity [high] over a long time, which is what’s going to be needed in quantum error correction.”

Constantly adjusting those pulses in near real time is an extremely compute-intensive task, but since a quantum system is always slightly different, it is also a control problem that lends itself to being solved with the help of reinforcement learning.

“As quantum computers are scaling up and improving, there are all these problems that become bottlenecks, that become really compute-intensive,” said Sam Stanwyck, Nvidia’s group product manager for quantum computing. “Quantum error correction is really a huge one. This is necessary to unlock fault-tolerant quantum computing, but also how to apply exactly the right control pulses to get the most out of the qubits”

Stanwyck also stressed that there was no system before DGX Quantum that would enable the kind of minimal latency necessary to perform these calculations.

As it turns out, even a small improvement in calibration can lead to massive improvements in error correction. “The return on investment in calibration in the context of quantum error correction is exponential,” explained Quantum Machines Product Manager Ramon Szmuk. “If you calibrate 10% better, that gives you an exponentially better logical error [performance] in the logical qubit that is composed of many physical qubits. So there’s a lot of motivation here to calibrate very well and fast.”

It’s worth stressing that this is just the start of this optimization process and collaboration. What the team actually did here was simply take a handful of off-the-shelf algorithms and look at which one worked best (TD3, in this case). All in all, the actual code for running the experiment was only about 150 lines long. Of course, this relies on all of the work the two teams also did to integrate the various systems and build out the software stack. For developers, though, all of that complexity can be hidden away, and the two companies expect to create more and more open source libraries over time to take advantage of this larger platform.

Szmuk stressed that for this project, the team only worked with a very basic quantum circuit but that it can be generalized to deep circuits as well. If you can do this with one gate and one qubit, you can also do it with a hundred qubits and 1,000 gates,” he said.

“I’d say the individual result is a small step, but it’s a small step towards solving the most important problems,” Stanwyck added. “Useful quantum computing is going to require the tight integration of accelerated supercomputing — and that may be the most difficult engineering challenge. So being able to do this for real on a quantum computer and tune up a pulse in a way that is not just optimized for a small quantum computer but is a scalable, modular platform, we think we’re really on the way to solving some of the most important problems in quantum computing with this.”

Stanwyck also said that the two companies plan to continue this collaboration and get these tools into the hands of more researchers. With Nvidia’s Blackwell chips becoming available next year, they’ll also have an even more powerful computing platform for this project, too.

>>> Weekend Papers Summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-The US government has accused Russian influence actors of creating a viral video claiming to show a Haitian immigrant illegally voting for Kamala Harris in the presidential election. Intelligence agencies said the clip was part of Moscow's broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the US election's integrity and stoke divisions among Americans. They also claimed Russian actors had manufactured a video falsely accusing an individual associated with the Democratic presidential ticket of taking a bribe from a US entertainer. The warning comes as officials across the country brace for a stream of misinformation surrounding the election, coming from both within the US and foreign adversaries such as Russia, Iran, and China. Georgia's top election official, Brad Raffensperger, appealed to Elon Musk to remove "targeted disinformation" about voter fraud in the state from social media site X.
-Pennsylvania is the biggest prize in the White House race, with the fight fierce and expensive. Both Donald Trump and Donald Trump have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the state and visited it more than any other battleground. Erie county is ground zero in this critical swing state, with recent elections suggesting winning here wins the presidency. With polling showing Trump and Harris in a virtual dead heat in the country and other swing states, a few votes in Erie could decide the next president. Erie hosted Trump's running mate, JD Vance, and Bernie Sanders, the progressive senator from Vermont, campaigning on behalf of the Democrats. Both parties are on the ground in force, with Democrats seeing revived organizing efforts as their path to victory in the county.
-Israeli security services have arrested several individuals as part of a probe into secret documents leaked to two foreign newspapers. The arrests were made public after Israeli newspapers partially lifted a gag order related to the investigation, claiming the leaks may have damaged Israel's war goals in the Gaza Strip. The investigation is ongoing, and one of the suspects is a press adviser to Netanyahu, not an employee of his office. Netanyahu's office stated that no one from the prime minister's office was investigated or arrested. The leaks to the UK-based Jewish Chronicle and Germany's Bild Zeitung cited documents found in Gaza that showed Hamas planned to divide Israeli society through propaganda efforts about the hostages.
-The dollar experienced its biggest monthly gain in over two years in October, driven by hopes that strong economic data and a victory for Donald Trump in the upcoming presidential election will lead to higher interest rates. The dollar's index against six other currencies, including the pound and Japan's yen, rose 3.2% in October, its best month since April 2022. The sharp rise in the dollar reflects persistent signs of economic resilience, including strong September payrolls data and higher consumer spending. Market participants also said increasing expectations of a Republican election victory bolstered the dollar's appeal. The latest polls put Trump and Kamala Harris virtually neck and neck, setting the stage for an extremely tight race on November 5.
-China is facing financial difficulties in retrofitting hundreds of thousands of lifts in ageing apartment blocks as its residents grow older. The move was made in the 1980s and 1990s to support China's manufacturing boom. However, these ageing migrants have found themselves on the wrong side of the property market downturn and worsening government fiscal health, leaving them unable to move into modern apartments and struggling to move around their own buildings. The housing regulator plans to install 2 million lifts across 8B m2 of housing stock built between 1980 and 2000. However, the lift installation campaign, first touted in 2018, has been plagued by conflict over who will pay, with authorities offering only partial subsidies and pushing tenants to cover the cost.
-UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has reassured markets that his government will not become addicted to tax and spend after the Budget, promising tough reforms to Britain's "creaking" state. Starmer defended his government's approach, stating that it cannot tax and spend to achieve prosperity, nor can it simply spend to improve public services. He emphasized that reform is an essential pillar of the government's agenda. Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves are attempting to reassure markets, businesses, and voters that the £40B tax rise and £28B extra annual borrowing in the Budget are not the first of several such increases. The gilt market stabilized after two days of post-Budget turbulence, pushing long-term government borrowing costs near their highest level since 2008.
-Competitive mathematics may seem esoteric in a war-torn region where many young men dropped out of school before the conflict shut down educational institutions. Academic youngsters must balance their attempts to keep studying with evading heavy munitions, finding clean water, and navigating checkpoints. Since Hamas's attack on Israel last year, Israel's offensive in Gaza has killed over 43,000 people and left much of the strip in ruins. However, AlHajajla, who was a driving force behind Palestine competing in the Olympiad for the first time in 2022, is determined not to let the war keep young Palestinians from top-level academic success. He believes that creative, critical thinking is essential for problem-solving and building solutions and models that can be applied to anything.
-Donald Trump has criticized Republican critic Liz Cheney as a "radical war hawk" who should have "nine barrels shooting at her," prompting criticism from Democratic rival Kamala Harris's campaign. Trump made the comments at a campaign event with Tucker Carlson, a right-wing media host, with just days left before the US election next Tuesday. Harris's campaign accused Trump of "talking about sending a prominent Republican to the firing squad." Harris later stated that anyone who wants to be president of the United States, who uses such violent rhetoric, is clearly disqualified and unqualified to be president. Trump later tried to defuse the furore by stating that Cheney is a "dumb war hawk" and that her father has caused plenty of death and probably never even thought of it.
-The US economy saw only 12,000 new jobs in October, the weakest report of the Biden administration, due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike. The Trump campaign seized on the report, claiming it reveals the economic damage caused by Kamala Harris. President Biden said job growth is expected to rebound in November. October's labor market figure was below the average forecast of 100,000 job gains and well short of September's revised figure of 223,000 new jobs. However, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, indicating the underlying health of the US labor market. The Trump campaign criticized the report as a catastrophe and urged for continued hurricane recovery and rebuilding efforts.

NEW YORK TIMES
--Kamala Harris and Donald Trump gathered in Milwaukee during their final scheduled visits to Wisconsin, a battleground state where neither party has a lead and is considered essential to a Harris victory. With the election just three days away, Harris adopted an upbeat tone during an evening of musical performances and urged her supporters in Milwaukee, where early voting lags the balloting in other parts of the state. Trump, returning to the site of his Republican coronation in July, had an entirely different tone, employing fear-mongering language about immigration, repeating his 2020 election lies, and lobbed insults at his political foes. He also suggested that Milwaukee's Greek-born basketball star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is Black, seemed less Greek than Trump did.
-Gen Z men are increasingly turning away from the Democratic Party due to the former president's bravado and irreverence. However, they do not usually vote in high numbers. Nick Kerkhoff, a football player and fraternity president at Carroll University, said that Trump's economic agenda and fear of Vice President Kamala Harris getting the country embroiled in a war that men would be drafted into led him to vote early for Trump. In June, Trump appeared on a podcast interview with Logan Paul, the wrestler and social media star, discussing immigration, the economy, boxing, and the existence of aliens. Finn Murphy, a 20-year-old college student in Carolina Beach, N.C., listened to snippets of the podcast and liked what he heard. He was standing in line last week alongside people three times his age to cast a vote for Trump.
-Nicolle Wallace, former White House communications director in George W. Bush's administration, has called on her former boss to denounce Trump. Wallace made the appeal on her MSNBC program, "Deadline: White House," stating that Trump's violent language about former Representative Liz Cheney has prompted her to publicly raise the question she gets asked more than any other off the set: "Where is George W. Bush?" Cheney, a former Wyoming congresswoman, has emerged as one of Trump's most prominent Republican critics and has campaigned extensively for his Democratic opponent, Kamala Harris. Her father, Dick Cheney, who served as Bush's vice president, has also said he would vote for Harris.
-The Supreme Court has rejected an appeal by Republicans to block the counting of provisional ballots by voters whose mail-in ballots were deemed invalid. The decision could affect thousands of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania, a state crucial to each party's path to victory in the presidential contest. The decision, which was unsigned and gave no reasoning, was celebrated by Democrats as a victory in a crucial state. The latest polls show Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump virtually tied. The ruling was one in a string of court victories for Democrats, whose voters are more likely to use mail ballots and were therefore more likely to have their votes tossed out if Republicans had succeeded in the case. Trump virtually tied.
-The White House has altered the official transcript of President Biden's remarks about the Trump campaign and "garbage" as it rushed to clarify that the president's words had been taken out of context. The debate over the meaning of Biden's words ultimately comes down to an apostrophe, which the White House press office inserted into the transcript without the authorization of the White House Stenography Office, the nonpartisan group that prepares the official record. The head of the stenography office said the alteration, first reported by The Associated Press, was a violation of protocol. It was also a sign of how seriously the White House took the uproar over the remarks, which drew waves of criticism from Republicans just days before a tossup election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump.
-Ukrainian soldiers said that a Russian breakthrough outside the city of Toretsk in eastern Ukraine could have catastrophic consequences for their country's defense against the Kremlin's invasion. If they lose these positions, all units in Toretsk will be cut off from resupply and logistics because all the roads are behind them. The Ukrainians fight from fortified, dug-in bunkers, with few chances to move in the open, where Russian drones, some equipped with thermal night vision, can quickly kill them. Mines are hidden across land where soldiers might inch forward, if they could. Russian jets, artillery, and mortars wreak havoc from above.
-US intelligence agencies have issued a new warning on Russia's election misinformation campaign, citing two fabricated videos that falsely claimed Haitians illegally voted in Georgia and Vice President Kamala Harris and her husband received a $500,000 bribe from performer Sean Combs. The U.S. government issued a new warning on Friday, a week after blaming Russia for another video that falsely claimed that ballots in Pennsylvania were being destroyed. Officials say foreign powers are working to undermine faith in the election, and government agencies in charge of protecting the vote have said the current torrent of false claims is greater than before. A senior official from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency called it a "fire hose of disinformation." The U.S. government has been covering foreign efforts to influence the 2024 election.
-Israel has launched airstrikes near Beirut for the first time in several days, killing at least 52 people in central Lebanon, according to Lebanese authorities. Diplomatic efforts to reduce the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah have shown no sign of success. Negotiations to reach a temporary truce between Israel and Hamas, Hezbollah's ally in the Gaza Strip, also hit another impasse. Hamas appeared to rule out the possibility of a limited cease-fire in order to exchange hostages held in Gaza and Palestinian prisoners, according to a statement released through the group's official media. The Biden administration sent key envoys, including the CIA director, to the Middle East this week to generate momentum in talks to end Israel's war against Hamas in Gaza and its spiraling conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon.
-As the death toll from the recent floods in Spain reaches 200, authorities are warning of new flooding in the southwest of the country. The Valencia region, which suffered the worst of the deluge, recorded 202 deaths, while three more people have died in neighboring regions, bringing the total of confirmed deaths to 205. The region that suffered the worst of the deluge, Valencia, recorded 202 deaths. The authorities are expecting the toll to rise as rescue workers continue to dig through sodden towns, clogged with mud and debris, making access extremely challenging. The authorities are also warning of new flooding in the southwest of the country. The situation is expected to worsen as rescue workers continue to dig through sodden towns, making access extremely challenging.
-Canadian authorities have dismantled the country's largest drug lab in British Columbia, seized enough chemicals and other material to produce around 96 million opioid doses. The lab is located in a rural part of the province and is the country's leading cause of overdose deaths. The police also found evidence of a drug production method used primarily by Mexican cartels to make opioids, which requires a particular precursor chemical and is often used to mass produce a potent synthetic drug known as "super meth." Experts suggest that Canadian drug dealers might be taking lessons from the cartels or that Mexican criminal groups might be operating in the country. Canadian authorities would not elaborate on potential links and said that the investigation that uncovered the drug lab was continuing.

NEW YORK POST
-The White House has announced a $425 million military aid package for Ukraine, aimed at assisting the country in its battle to maintain its sovereignty. The package includes air-defense interceptors, munitions for rocket systems and artillery, armored vehicles, and anti-tank weapons. The weapons, including surface-to-air missile system munitions and TOW and Javelin anti-tank missiles, are designed to help Ukraine fight from the air and ground in the eastern Donbas region. The package was announced after the Pentagon confirmed Ukrainian reports that North Korea has sent thousands of troops to Russia to bolster Moscow's invasion. Analysts suggest that North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un may want his forces to learn from a real-life ground war, something the Hermit Kingdom's military hasn't fought in seven decades. The Korean War has not technically ended, but large-scale combat between North and South Korea ended with an armistice agreed in 1953.
-Boeing has dismantled its global diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) department as part of an overhaul of its operations ordered by the company's new top executive. The aerospace giant, which was criticized by tech mogul Elon Musk for prioritizing DEI over safety and quality controls after a near-catastrophic blowout during an Alaska Airlines flight, said staff from its DEI office would be absorbed into another human resources team focused on talent and employee experience. Sara Liang Bowen, a company vice president who was put in charge of the now-defunct DEI unit, left the company on Thursday. Bowen wrote in a farewell post on LinkedIn, expressing the privilege of his lifetime to lead Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion at Boeing and the team's efforts to support the evolving brilliance and creativity of the workforce. A conservative influencer who has launched viral campaigns that forced other high-profile companies to scrap their DEI policies took credit for Boeing's overhaul.

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary

Cover:
-Walmart, the largest US company by revenue and employees, delivered $15.5B in profit last year and has a $663B market cap. Despite ongoing divisional elections, Walmart continues to grow, with its e-commerce, advertising, and membership businesses proving successful. CEO Doug McMillon, who will mark his 11th-year anniversary on Feb. 1, has seen Walmart stock climb 231% during McMillon's tenure. Walmart's success and importance to the economy and society make it a unique company in the corporate elites. The Walton family, descendants of founder Sam Walton, has a 46% stake in Walmart worth $300B, making them America's richest family. The Walton family's stewardship is one of Walmart's greatest advantages, with a singular symbiotic relationship that has almost no parallel in American business. The Walton family's fortune is spread among more than two dozen family members, with Sam's brother, James "Bud" Walton, having a smaller piece of the company.

Interview:
-Brian Gardner, Chief Washington Policy Strategist at Stifel SF, has been helping businesses and investors navigate the political landscape for decades. With the Nov. 5 presidential election approaching, Gardner's views are in greater demand than ever. He has been particularly prescient, suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris would be the most likely replacement for President Joe Biden. Gardner also highlighted the potential tax debate in 2025-26, with the expiration of Trump tax cuts and other issues like clean-energy tax credits and corporate income tax. Both candidates have discussed changes, with Harris looking to raise the corporate tax rate and Trump discussing cutting it. Both candidates have big trade agendas, with Harris likely maintaining the status-quo situation with China tariffs, while Trump plans to increase tariffs on Chinese goods and expand global tariffs.

Tech Trader:
-Big Tech stocks have seen a mixed response to recent earnings reports, with Microsoft reporting stellar earnings and shares rising in after-hours trading. However, Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood warned that capital expenditures would continue to rise, leading to a 4% drop in shares. The week's results are expected to focus on the massive spending bills that companies continue to accumulate. Microsoft's capital expenditures were $20 billion in its fiscal first quarter, up 79% on the year and 203% over two years. The spending is primarily for the AI buildout in its rentable cloud computing platform, Azure. Azure cloud saw a 33% increase against last year, with 12 percentage points coming from AI services. However, this growth comes at a cost to profitability, as depreciation expenses pile up. Microsoft's shares fell 6% on the earnings news, erasing $194B in market value. Meta Platforms' results were similar, with shares falling despite the company's capex growing rapidly, up 36% on the year.

The Trader:
-Stocks have been struggling due to uncertainty surrounding an election and Federal Reserve meeting. The S&P 500 finished down 1% for the month in October, marking its worst performance since April and ending a five-month winning streak. October is the most volatile month, especially during election years, and the S&P 500 had been trending lower since mid-month. However, this year could end similarly, especially once election-related volatility has passed. DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas believes that when the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is one to two standard deviations above the long-run average, it's a good time for investors to buy stocks. 22V Research President Dennis DeBusschere agrees that the election is driving higher volatility but that backdrop isn't likely to continue. Choppiness was a factor pushing the S&P 500 lower on Thursday, and volatility is expected to remain intense through the next two weeks of market clearing events. Stockpickers may be able to swoop in, as BofA Securities' contrarian Sell Side Indicator is closer to a Sell signal than a Buy.
-The Technology Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund (XLK) has fallen 3.4% to $223, below its peak of $237 in July. Despite the drop, investors are turning to former favorites like Microsoft, Super Micro Computer, Amazon.com, and Apple. Microsoft's earnings were solid, but not enough for a stock trading at nearly 30 times earnings. Super Micro Computer's stock plunged almost 40% in just two days after revealing its auditor resigned over accounting concerns. Amazon.com's stock rose 5.2% after beating third-quarter earnings estimates, while Apple's stock was only down 0.4%. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.63 percentage points since the Federal Reserve cut interest rates on September 18, making future profits less valuable and putting downward pressure on valuations. The Tech ETF now trades at 28 times 12-month forward earnings, down from a peak of 31 in July. Tech sector profits are set to grow 18% annually over the next two years, boosted by sales growth and billions of dollars in share repurchases.

Features:
-Expectations have increased since Beijing's September effort to show focus on stabilizing the economy, following weak economic data and growing deflationary pressures. The iShares MSCI China exchange-traded fund has increased by 21% this year, but has fallen from its peak due to Beijing's slow action. Structural challenges facing the economy include turning around the property market and finding new sources of economic growth. Analysts expect authorities to continue on a slow path to stimulus, which could be disappointing to investors. The meeting of the National People's Congress Standing Committee is expected to run from Monday through Friday. Market expectations include six trillion renminbi ($874B) of bond issuances over three years and possibly another four trillion ($561B) in special local government bond issuance over five years. Optimists are also expecting authorities to inject one trillion renminbi into banks to deal with nonperforming debt related to the property sector or into a fiscal package aimed at bolstering consumption.
-Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams will join the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), replacing Intel and Dow before trading opened on November 8. The announcement was made after the close of trading on Friday. The changes were initiated to ensure a more representative exposure to the semiconductors industry and materials sector. The DJIA is a price-weighted index, meaning persistently lower-priced stocks have minimal impact on the index. Intel finished Friday at $23.20 and Dow at $49.97, with Dow's market capitalization around $35B. Nvidia is the second-largest company in the U.S. stock market in market value at $3.3T, just behind DJIA member Apple. Sherwin-Williams is a surprise addition to the DJIA, with a market value of $90B. The additions follow the addition of Amazon.com to the DJIA in February and Vistra will replace AES in the Dow Jones Utility Average.

European Trader:
-The US presidential election could determine whether the world is heading for an escalation in the trade war, potentially jeopardizing global economic growth and geopolitical alliances. Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to maintain the Biden administration's approach to China, which would involve continuing tariffs and increasing restrictions on China's access to critical technology. Former President Donald Trump's proposals would take the trade battle to a new level, potentially hitting allies like Germany and Australia. Trump has said he would raise tariffs on China to as much as 60% and impose universal tariffs on all imports of at least 10%. A major escalation in the trade war could create chaos in the trading system that underpins the global economy, causing initial rattle in international markets, especially China, Mexico, South Korea, and Europe. However, global markets do not yet fully reflect an intensified trade war and tariffs, as Trump could pursue these trade policies without Congress.

Emerging Markets:
-Emerging market bonds issued in dollars have held their own as global fixed income has sold off over the past month. However, local-currency bonds have not been as stable. Emerging markets have shifted towards issuing debt in their own currencies since the 1980s and '90s, making them more stable but leaving $7T in bonds extremely vulnerable to the US election on Nov. 5. Donald Trump's promised 10% tariffs on all imports to the US would push exporting countries to weaken their currencies in response, potentially cratering bonds priced in those currencies. However, more than $1T in emerging market debt issued in dollars has been issued in dollars. Spreads for this subasset class over U.S. Treasuries tightened by 0.23% in October. Riskier credits outperformed, with high-yield sovereigns tightening by 50 basis points as investors gained confidence in the solvency of onetime basket cases such as Argentina, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

Commodities:
-Oil prices rose following a report that Israel believes Iran is planning a strike in the coming days. Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggests Iran could attack through Iraqi territory in retaliation for last month's missile barrage. The strike could happen within days and possibly ahead of the US election on Nov. 5. Crude prices jumped on Friday, with Brent rising 2.2% to $74.38 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate up 2.5% to $71.02 a barrel. Shares in oil supermajors also rose, with Chevron rising 4.1% after reporting better-than-expected Q3 earnings and revenue. Traders are worried that any attack by Tehran could prompt a counterstrike by Israel targeting Iranian oil production sites.

Streetwise:
-The demand for artificial-intelligence chips has driven the two best 10-year stock performers among current S&P 500 components, Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices. Nvidia has returned 31,300%, while Advanced Micro Devices has returned 5,900%. The No. 3 and 4 performers are in businesses that produce artificial-intelligence chips, such as credit scores and lumber. Fair Isaac, a credit score company, has returned 3,300% over the past decade and Builders FirstSource, 2,900%. Both companies were added to the S&P 500 last year and report quarterly financial results in the week ahead. Fair Isaac benefits from being an industry standard, with some help from the government, and having a long runway to raise prices. The company was founded in the 1950s by engineer Bill Fair and mathematician Earl Isaac, and first introduced its credit score in 1989. Today, a FICO score judges creditworthiness on a scale from 300 to 850 using payment history, loan balances, and other data. Competition includes the three main credit bureaus, VantageScores, and an AI-powered lending marketplace called Upstart. Fair Isaac's FICO scores are required for loans that originate with government entities, such as the Federal Housing Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs, as well as those bought or securitized by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Today, more than 90% of top lenders use FICO scores, and barriers to entry are high. Fair Isaac uses AI transparently and has its own scoring products for borrowers with limited credit histories.

CrunchBase : The 10 Biggest Rounds Of October: OpenAI’s Massive Deal Dwarfs All

The 10 Biggest Rounds Of October: OpenAI’s Massive Deal Dwarfs All Others

OpenAI led the way last month and it really wasn’t even close. However, there were lots of other big raises — as a startup had to raise more than $200 million to make October’s list as investors were very willing to open their checkbooks for megadeals.

1. OpenAI, $6.6B, artificial intelligence: OpenAI announced its long-awaited raise of $6.6 billion at a post-money valuation of $157 billion led by Thrive Capital. The new round makes the ChatGPT creator one of the most valuable private companies in the world and also included investment from the likes of Altimeter Capital, Fidelity, Khosla Ventures, Microsoft, Nvidia, SoftBank and Abu Dhabi-based MGX. It also was reported SoftBank’s Vision Fund would invest $500 million in the round. The new round comes just as the company is facing myriad issues, including an exodus of higher-up employees and a restructuring change to switch it from a nonprofit to a for-profit benefit corporation and to give co-founder Sam Altman equity in the company. The funding structure seems to take those factors into account, as it came in the form of convertible notes and reportedly allows for investors to ask for their money back if the change is not completed within two years and removes the cap on returns for investors. The new round is bigger than the $6 billion round Elon Musk’s generative AI startup, xAI, officially announced in May, which up to this point was the largest round raised this year.

2. Pacific Fusion, $900M, energy: Another huge AI-related round. Pacific Fusion, a startup attempting to create a nuclear fusion-based energy source, raised more than $900 million in a Series A led by General Catalyst. The funding does depend on the company hitting certain milestones — which were not spelled out. The round further illustrates investors’ appetite for energy sources that can meet AI’s immense power needs.

3. (tied) Crusoe Energy Systems, $500M, energy: Back in 2022, the Denver-based company was helping power Bitcoin mining by harnessing natural gas that is typically burned during oil extraction and putting it toward powering the data centers needed for mining — raising a $350 million Series C equity round led by G2 Venture Partners, at $1.75 billion valuation in the process. Well, Crusoe has now turned its energy to AI — literally. The company is a so-called “neocloud” — a data center firm providing outsourced cloud computing for those looking to build AI. That business plan was enough for Crusoe to reportedly lock up a $500 million round led by Founders Fund at a $3 billion valuation. Founded in 2018, the company has raised $1.2 billion, per Crunchbase.

3. (tied) Poolside, $500M, artificial intelligence: Poolside closed a $500 million Series B led by Bain Capital Ventures. The new round valued the startup at $3 billion, Bloomberg reported. The startup builds artificial intelligence software for programmers. Poolside is just one of a handful of big deals recently in the AI coding space. In August, San Francisco-based Magic, which also develops AI models to write software, raised a $320 million round, and AI-powered coding assistant Codeium closed a $150 million Series C. Poolside has raised $626 million since being founded in May 2023.

3. (tied) X-energy, $500M, energy: Rockville, Maryland-based X-energy raised a Series C-1 of approximately $500 million, anchored by Amazon. The company is developing advanced small modular nuclear reactors for clean energy generation. Amazon and X-energy are collaborating to bring more than 5 gigawatts of new power projects online across the United States by 2039. Founded in 2009, X-energy has raised more than $785 million, per Crunchbase.

3. (tied) Insider, $500M, digital marketing: Marketing tech platform Insider raised a $500 million Series E led by General Atlantic to fund its expansion in the U.S. and AI product development. The latest funding comes about 18 months after a round last year that valued it at $1.9 billion. The New York-based company declined to disclose its valuation with the latest round. Insider, which was co-founded in Istanbul in 2012, has now raised $772.1 million from investors, per Crunchbase. The company said it operates in 28 countries around the world and counts big names such as Nike, Samsung, L’Oreal, Unilever, Allianz and Walt Disney among its customers.

7. Form Energy, $405M, renewable energy: Form Energy, a renewable energy company developing and commercializing multiday energy storage systems, raised a $405 million Series F led by T. Rowe Price. Long-duration energy storage has proven to be a tough nut to crack, but Form has been able to get some commercial traction as it looks to ramp up manufacturing operations and commercial deployments of its iron-air battery systems. The Somerville, Massachusetts-based company, founded in 2017, has raised a total of $1.5 billion in a mix of equity and grants, per Crunchbase.

8. (tied) Kailera Therapeutics, $400M, biotech: Yet another big biotech raise last month, as Kailera Therapeutics announced its launch with a $400 million Series A financing co-led by Atlas Venture, Bain Capital Life Sciences and RTW Investments. The new Boston-based company is developing several clinical-stage injectable and oral therapies to help with chronic weight management.

8. (tied) Lightmatter, $400M, data centers: Lightmatter, a startup that uses light to link chips together and to do calculations for the deep learning necessary for AI, locked up a $400 million Series D led by new investor T. Rowe Price at a $4.4 billion valuation. The new round nearly quadruples its previous valuation of $1.2 billion in December after a $155 million raise led by GV — which along with Fidelity Management and Research Co. also participated in the new round. As Big Tech pours hundreds of billions of dollars into new AI data centers, Lightmatter is trying to solve the problems around energy consumption and scalability of those new centers. The company’s tech uses silicon photonics that can speed up processes while also using less power. Although the idea of using light in computing isn’t new, creating the components has historically been challenging. Founded in 2017, Lightmatter has raised $850 million, per the company. Lightmatter’s was not the only large raise by a photonic startup last month. Xscape Photonics — a New York-based startup also using photonics technology to address the energy, performance and scalability challenges of AI data centers — raised a $44 million Series A led by IAG Capital Partners with investment from the likes of Cisco Investments and Nvidia.

10. Splitero, $300M, fintech: Part of the beauty of being a homeowner is having equity in that home. Unfortunately, accessing that equity can sometimes be burdensome. San Diego-based Splitero offers homeowners another option to do just that and last month the startup locked up $300 million through a strategic investment from funds managed by Antarctica Capital to further that mission. Splitero offers homeowners a lump sum of cash in exchange for a share of their home’s future value. Founded in 2021, the company has raised nearly $318 million, per Crunchbase.