>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Adidas AG (ADDYY) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Telsey Advisory Group
    • Core Scientific (CORZ) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley Securities; tgt $13
    • Fluor (FLR) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $57
  • Downgrades:
    • American Airlines (AAL) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen; tgt lowered to $10
    • Assoc Banc-Corp (ASB) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $27
    • CenterPoint (CNP) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $29
    • Chevron (CVX) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Bernstein; tgt lowered to $167
    • FB Financial (FBK) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $46
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $85
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt lowered to $113
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $90
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Truist; tgt lowered to $89
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $100
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $92
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at William Blair
  • Others:
    • Axon (AXON) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $385
    • Axon (AXON) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $380
    • Core Scientific (CORZ) initiated with an Overweight at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $20
    • CVR Energy (CVI) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho; tgt $27
    • Fidelis Insurance Holdings Limited (FIHL) initiated with an In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt $19

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • FIVE -15.3% (lowers Q2 guidance; CEO steps down; searching for new CEO), ASML -8.1%, SAVE -6.3% (lowers Q2 revenue guidance), HWC -4.9%, OMC -3.4%, JBHT -2.9%, FHN -2.2%, GMAB -2.1% (sales guidance), CFG -2%
Other news:
  • ADVM -7.5% (Presents Positive Ixo-vec Clinical Data from the 26-Week Interim Analysis of the LUNA Phase 2 Trial at the 2024 ASRS Annual Meeting)
  • LILM -4.8% (reaffirms 2026 target for first customer deliveries; provides additional details)
  • ANF -3.3% (to move to S&P MidCap 400 from SmallCap 600)
  • DG -2.8% (in sympathy with FIVE guide down)
  • J -2.5% (files Form 10 Registration Statement for planned spin-off of Critical Mission Solutions and Cyber & Intelligence Businesses and Merger with Amentum) RLAY -2.1% (Genentech and F. Hoffmann-La Roche terminate collaboration)
  • DLTR -2.1% (in sympathy with FIVE guide down)
  • ARGX -2.1% (provided investor updates with its 2030 Vision in presentation)
  • NOVA -1.5% (Hurricane Beryl's Devastating Impact on Houston Power Grid Reinforces Value of Sunnova Solar + Storage Service for Homeowners)
  • USM -1.4% (files $1 bln mixed shelf securities offering)
  • OLLI -1.1% (in sympathy with FIVE guide down)
  • VALE -1% (reports Q2 production and sales)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • AEHR +10.2% (also to acquire Incal Technologies), NTRS +3.5%, WAFD +1.9%, USB +1.2%
Other news:
  • ORIC +11.5% (announces multiple collaborations to support ongoing trial evaluating ORIC-944)
  • ACRS +9.7% (announces sale of OLUMIANT royalties and milestones to OMERS Life Sciences for up to $31.5 million)
  • FTK +8.7% (EPA has designated the JP3 system as an approved measurement tech)
  • GTES +7.8% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
  • BE +7.3% (forms partnership with CoreWeave to meet AI energy demands)
  • FDMT +5.6% (Phase 2 PRISM Interim Results for Intravitreal 4D-150 in a Broad Wet AMD Population Affirming Favorable Safety Profile and Robust Clinical Activity)
  • ATHE +5% (interim data from the ATH434-202 open-label Phase 2 clinical trial)
  • LGO +1.5% (reports Q2 production)
  • GRIN +1.2% (announces court approval in respect of the selective capital reduction)

WWD : What’s Behind the Nordstroms’ Plan to Take Their Business Private?

What’s Behind the Nordstroms’ Plan to Take Their Business Private?
The Nordstroms are determined to take their business private after an unsuccessful attempt two years ago. Now, they have the advantage of a much lower stock price.

Nordstrom Inc. has a strong case for going private, especially as a company that’s undergoing operational and merchandise changes, and is likely to transform even more in the future.

For one, Wall Street takes a dim view of Nordstrom and most department stores. Through a private transaction, Nordstrom could reach a higher valuation, and preempt an unwanted bid for the company. Given its low stock price, at around $23.50, and the recent string of investor activity at department stores, including at Macy’s, Nordstrom seems vulnerable to takeover offers. Mexico’s Liverpool department store chain has a 9.63 percent stake in Nordstrom as of March 31, 2024, but when Liverpool accumulated the stock in 2022, it indicated it was a passive investment. On Monday, Macy’s Inc. rejected Arkhouse and Brigade’s takeover bid and terminated talks with the two activist investors.

Going private takes the Nordstroms out from under the constant glare of Wall Street, and enables them to eliminate the time and costs of producing quarterly reports, staging conference calls and meetings with investors. They’ll deal with less scrutiny, far fewer stakeholders and regulatory requirements, and can be more decisive with a smaller constituency to report to. They’ll have more time to focus on long-term strategy and spend time with their families. Private companies can be less transparent so competitors know less about what they’re up against.

“I spent about a third of my time with the board, investors, Wall Street analysts, and writing scripts on quarterly results,” said one former public company retail chief executive officer who requested anonymity. “When you are running a private company, you still have to report to a board and investors but there would not be as many and you wouldn’t need to be getting as specifically detailed on the company and its performance.

“You’re not living life quarter-to-quarter. Thirteen-week report cards don’t really work in retailing. It’s too much of a game. As a CEO in a private company, you can have a strategic vision for evolving the company a few years out and not get distracted. That’s why private equity can work well. They sometimes hold onto a retailer for four or five years before looking to cash out. You can also enjoy your own life more if you are running a private company. Going private frees up your bandwidth.”

Dealing With Investors
Terry Lundgren, CEO of TJL Advisors and former chairman and CEO of Macy’s Inc., said dealing with the investor community “for the most part, didn’t take up a huge amount of my business day. In any given quarter, it would be maybe 5 percent of my time,” Lundgren estimated. “I had a great CFO: Karen Hoguet. I spent a lot of time with her and my finance team, which is important to say. But she spent the majority of time with investors and was very capable of answering all their questions. If there was ever an issue or something that she couldn’t answer, she came to me.”

Things temporarily changed when corporate raider Carl Icahn upped his stake in Macy’s (then called Federated) in 2006 and advocated for a leveraged buyout. Lundgren started meeting with Icahn.


“I didn’t want to leverage up the company, which he was saying he wanted to do. I wanted the freedom to continue to invest in the business. We were at that point where we were doing pretty well,” Lundgren said. Icahn eventually reduced his stake in Macy’s, and Lundgren said in that kind of situation, a CEO could spend as much as 30 or 40 percent of his or her time in situations with an activist investor. “Activists will have a lot of questions about what the company’s future looks like, what the assets look like and what the operating expenses are,” he said.

The Nordstroms’ Stake in Nordstrom Inc.
Last April, Nordstrom Inc. CEO Erik Nordstrom, and his brother Pete, president and chief brand officer, confirmed they want to take the retailer private and that a special committee was formed to evaluate their proposal and any others that could arise. The brothers own approximately 9.5 percent of the stock, while the Nordstrom family owns approximately one-third. The board indicated that a range of possible avenues, including taking the company private, for advancing shareholder value would be examined. The family and any partners would have to own more than 50 percent of the voting shares to go private.

Pete, Erik and Jamie Nordstrom with the late Bruce Nordstrom, Pete and Erik's father.
Pete, Erik and Jamie Nordstrom with the late Bruce Nordstrom. GRANT HINDSLEY/FOOTWEAR NEWS
The Nordstroms tried to take their company private in 2017, offering to pay $50 a share, or $8.4 billion, with the backing of Leonard Green & Partners. That offer was considered too low and rejected by a special committee of the board.

This time around, the Nordstroms would offer less, possibly with Leonard Green as a partner again, as the company’s current market capitalization stands at $3.74 billion. The stock priced closed Tuesday up 4.17 percent at $23.75. There’s been speculation that Sycamore Partners private equity firm could get involved.

“The Nordstroms feel they would be better off going private and not having quarter-to-quarter pressures from the public markets. If they went private without putting on excessive debt, it allows them to invest with a longer-term mindset,” one senior level retail executive said, also requesting anonymity. “Investing in the business for long-term growth might cause some earnings shortfall short early on, but building a strategy toward a longer-term growth strategy, the future, is hard to do when you’re a public company because you’re reporting every quarter and you’re going to be criticized for your shortcomings. But if it’s leading toward a logical, sensible, long-term strategy, the insiders would support that.

“Secondly, it allows them to realize value that the public markets don’t. The public markets have beat up on department stores. They don’t believe in the future of department stores. The valuations are horrible. Whatever the Nordstroms offer for the stock, they’ll need financial partners. The board will have to approve it and shareholders will have to vote on the offer. It will be some premium to the stock price. They will have partners who loan them money or put in equity and get board seats. It’s typically some combination of debt and equity. The Nordstroms will structure a deal where they’re still in control. If they do take the company private, it suggests they want to be more engaged.”

Some retail experts contacted by WWD believe taking the company private could be a path for developing a succession plan. Erik is 60 and his brother Pete is 62. Their children are not involved in the company. The father of Pete and Erik, Bruce Nordstrom, who led the company for four decades, died in May.

One likely candidate for Nordstrom’s next CEO is Jamie Nordstrom, currently chief merchandising officer. He’s the cousin of Erik and Pete. The 51-year-old Jamie has nearly three decades of experience working across almost every aspect of the business and has held leadership roles in merchandising, stores and digital. Before becoming chief merchandising officer, he was chief stores officer.

Dana Telsey, CEO and chief research officer at the Telsey Advisory Group, explained that if a company is undergoing a high degree of operational and merchandising changes — which Nordstrom is — impacting the top and bottom lines and expense structure, “it becomes difficult to provide quarterly and annual sales and earnings outlooks to Wall Street.” Going private eliminates that burden.

The Pros and Cons of Going Private
As stated in its annual report, the $14 billion Seattle-based Nordstrom is expanding its Rack off-price chain, increasing its digital velocity, and increasing the breadth of selection through alternatives to traditional wholesaling, i.e. drop shipping, concessions and its new marketplace format. Nordstrom is putting more resources into its department stores in key markets and building up its media network, which generates revenues by enabling brands to advertise through different Nordstrom channels. Still, such strategies can take a long time to bear fruit, testing the patience of Wall Street.

While those contacted by WWD see advantages in taking Nordstrom private, a former specialty retail CEO said, “When we went private, I was very much against it. The private equity partners took on huge debt, which hurt the business and they paid themselves a lot of money. They took dividends. None of the financial people knew about merchandising. I think the Nordstroms would be nuts to leverage their balance sheet, but then again, Wall Street does not have much confidence in the department store sector. Dillard’s is the only one that’s rock ‘n’ rolling. Dillard’s stock has gone through the roof.” The stock is currently trading between $450 and $460 a share, but is not widely traded with close to 40 percent controlled by the Dillard family and the rest largely held by institutional investors.

“Like all retailers that sell other people’s goods, Nordstrom needs to ensure they are giving shoppers a reason to come to them rather than going elsewhere. That can be done through curation, experience, service and other reasons that inspire loyalty,” said Simeon Siegel, managing director, BMO Capital Markets.

“They need to put the inventory where it needs to be so they’re well assorted, continue to enhance the brand availability at Rack, and must work to drive traffic,” Telsey said. “They must continue to invest in personnel, connecting with customers to stay true to their legacy of service, and need to do what all department stores need to do: capture that younger customer.”

Though he believes department stores will endure, Lundgren said department stores generally are too big and too numerous, given today’s opportunities to shop online, specialty stores and off-price retailers. “You need a base of stores in the great cities where the population is growing, which generally means the North, South and East and West Coasts.”

He suggested Nordstrom “rationalize” its store base, further integrate online and stores for easier shopping, and not be all things to all people. As of the end of the first quarter this year, the company had 93 department stores, 262 Rack off-price stores, six Nordstrom Local service hubs and two clearance units. “They need to stand for something. In the old days, Lord & Taylor stood for dresses. The problem was they didn’t evolve from there and everybody else got on the dress bandwagon. Nordstrom stood for shoes. They had the best assortment but others caught up. Is the men’s suit business dead? Probably not. Especially suit separates with open collar shirts. Nordstrom needs to be the go-to place for men’s suits because they were so good at that.…It’s just finding what those pockets are, and what they should stand for and own with conviction.”

WSJ : Roche Obesity Pill Achieves Positive Results in Early-Stage Trial

Roche Obesity Pill Achieves Positive Results in Early-Stage Trial
The Swiss company said the drug showed clinically meaningful weight loss of 7.3% after four weeks of treatment

Roche said an oral drug candidate for the treatment of people with obesity achieved positive results in an early-stage clinical trial. PHOTO: ARND WIEGMANN/REUTERS
Roche Holding said an oral GLP-1 drug candidate for the treatment of people with obesity achieved positive results in an early-stage clinical trial, bolstering the company’s efforts to enter the booming market after another drug showed weight-loss efficacy in May.

The Swiss pharmaceutical company is trying to get a slice of the market for drugs to treat obesity and diabetes currently dominated by Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. It entered the race through its $3-billion-plus purchase of Carmot Therapeutics, which gave Roche access to both oral and injectable drug candidates.

Roche said one of the experimental drugs it acquired through the Carmot deal—called CT-996 and being developed to treat both type 2 diabetes and obesity—showed clinically meaningful weight loss after four weeks of treatment in a phase 1 study.

The safety and tolerability profile of the drug was consistent with other oral drugs of the same class and no unexpected safety signals were observed, the company said.

The results of the trial show that the once-daily drug could potentially be dosed without regard to meal timing, Roche said.

The drug could eventually help patients both lose weight and for chronic weight-management maintenance, Roche’s Chief Medical Officer and Head of Global Product Development Levi Garraway said.

This is Roche’s second experimental obesity drug to achieve positive results in an early-stage trial. In May, the company said another drug candidate, CT-388, demonstrated efficacy in a Phase 1 study, by leading to significant weight loss in healthy adults with obesity compared to placebo.

FT : Donald Trump calls for Taiwan to ‘pay’ for its own defence

Donald Trump calls for Taiwan to ‘pay’ for its own defence
TSMC shares slide after Republican candidate’s comments rattle island nation reliant on security guarantee

Former US president Donald Trump has said Taiwan should pay the US for its defence guarantees, a statement that sent shudders through the island nation on Wednesday and highlighted the stakes of the upcoming presidential election for Washington’s allies and partners in Asia.

Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest chipmaker by sales, dropped 2.4 per cent after the Republican nominee said in an interview with Bloomberg published on Tuesday that Taiwan “stole our chip business” and “should pay [the US] for defence”, referring to the implicit security guarantee provided by the American military.

“You know, we’re no different than an insurance company,” Trump added. “Taiwan doesn’t give us anything.”

Taiwan buys almost all of its weapons through government-negotiated foreign military sales from the US, making it one of the largest markets for American defence companies. Over the past year, Congress has also adopted legislation allowing some military aid.

Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai said in response on Wednesday that Taipei and Washington would aim to further develop their relations in a positive direction in the future. “Making such efforts and wishing them the best is all we can do,” he added.

The US has long acted as the de facto guarantor of Taiwan’s security, with an albeit ambiguous commitment to help it defend itself. China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has threatened to attack if Taipei refuses to submit under its control indefinitely.

Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Washington considers any effort to determine Taiwan’s future by non-peaceful means as of grave concern to the US and commits to providing Taiwan with defensive weapons and to maintaining US capacity to resist coercion that would jeopardise Taiwan’s security.

President Joe Biden has repeatedly affirmed the US commitment to defending Taiwan, even saying the country would deploy forces to do so. But Trump has questioned US ties to Taiwan before and added in the Bloomberg interview that it would be “very, very difficult” for the US to defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack.

He added that Beijing was only reluctant to bomb Taiwan because doing so would destroy its chip manufacturing industry. The country manufactures more than 90 per cent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors.

Trump also reiterated a past accusation that Taiwan’s chip industry had prospered at the expense of US business.

“They took almost 100 per cent of our chip industry, I give them credit . . . Now we’re giving them billions of dollars to build new chips in our country, and then they’re going to . . . bring it back to their country,” Trump said.

Taiwan has become a globally dominant chip manufacturer over the past 30 years after US chipmakers increasingly outsourced production to focus on more profitable chip design.

Following prodding from Washington and customers to localise production in the US, TSMC has committed to investing $65bn to build three fabrication plants in Arizona. In return, the company will receive up to $6.6bn in grants and $5bn in loans.

Cho also pointed to Taiwan’s efforts to strengthen its own defences in recent years, including steady increases in military spending and the resurrection of year-long conscription for men, adding that the country was willing to do more.

But Cho also highlighted the importance of backing from other countries. US defence co-operation and frequent statements in its support “have made Taiwan an even more determined member of the global community with common responsibility for regional peace and stability”, he said.