Barron's Weekend Summary: ohn Malone, a cable mogul, has been a media trailblazer since the 1980s
Cover:
-John Malone, a cable mogul, has been a media trailblazer since the 1980s. He has built a successful empire under the name Liberty Media, which has been mentioned alongside Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. However, at 83, Malone is facing challenges in his empire, including pressure on Sirius XM Holdings and Charter Communications, the country's second-largest cable operator. Other companies associated with Malone, such as Warner Bros. Discovery, have also suffered. Malone's debt-based business model has lost its luster as interest rates have risen. Despite this, some of his holdings, such as Formula One racing and the Atlanta Braves, are thriving. Malone is still making deals, which could unlock the value of his empire and provide an opportunity for investors to navigate his complex web of stocks. Pivotal Research Group senior research analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak believes that Malone would prefer to do things sooner rather than later. Malone keeps a relatively low profile and lets Liberty Media CEO Greg Maffei do most of the talking.
Interview:
-Jeremy Siegel, a professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, first published Stocks for the Long Run in 1994, highlighting the importance of diversification and staying invested in the stock market. The book, titled The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns & Long-Term Investment Strategies, argued against trying to pick individual winners and losers in the stock market. Siegel also recommended staying invested and resisting the urge to market-time. The S&P 500 index fund, which was published in 1994, has grown exponentially since its publication, with the index now at around 5550, a gain of nearly 1,100%. Nvidia, the world's third-most-valuable company, is worth more than $3T. A passive approach to investing ensures ownership of America's most dominant companies in vibrant industries. Siegel remains a strong believer in indexing, stating that it's hard to beat an index portfolio no matter how you do it, especially when factoring in fees for an actively managed fund.
Tech Trader:
-Investors are questioning the returns on capital expenditures invested in AI, with some predicting workforce reductions as the first outcome. David Cahn, a venture capitalist at Sequoia Capital, estimates that Nvidia's customers will need to add $600 billion in AI revenue to get an acceptable payback on their investments. He believes that AI will transform the economy, similar to the internet and railroads once did. Sequoia has backed AI start-ups, but many speculators in these technologies got torched when initial valuations crashed, benefiting everyone using rail or internet services. Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak also considered the returns on invested capital for Meta stock, considering the $45B it plans to invest in capex this year and again in 2025. Nowak concluded that AI will drive higher engagement at Facebook and Instagram, sticking with his Buy recommendation for Meta.
The Trader:
-Alphabet's stock fell after a strong earnings report, with earnings of $1.89 a share on revenue of $84.7B, beating estimates for $1.85 and $84.2B, respectively. However, the stock dropped 5% on Wednesday, its largest decline since late February, and is now off more than 12% from their peak on July 10. Alphabet's expectations were likely high heading into earnings, given the stock's 30% gain this year heading into the print. However, there were other worries, particularly the amount of money Alphabet is spending on artificial intelligence, particularly after capital expenditures rose 91% in the second quarter and are likely to continue rising at a fast rate. Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney notes that Alphabet's bets on AI already look to be paying off, with Google's AI summaries of stories attracting users, more usage by 18- to 24-year-olds, and more than 1.5 million developers using Gemini, Google's AI product.
-The tech stocks market has seen a rough week, but it is more excited about small-cap stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.75%, the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.1%. The NASDAQ’s losses are a reflection of its recent performance, which was up 18% this year. Investors have been taking profits in stocks, driven by Alphabet's earnings beat, which sent the stock down 6.2% on Wednesday. The S&P SmallCap 600 index rose 3.6% this past week as investors rebalanced their portfolios to own more small-cap stocks and less tech heavyweights. Inflation data continues to behave, with June's personal consumption expenditures price index rising 2.5% year over year, down from May's 2.6%, and second-quarter gross domestic product rising a faster-than-expected 2.8%. This should allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September, supporting economic growth and restoring the market's confidence in sales and profits across sectors. The S&P 600 has been up about 6% over the past two weeks, but small-caps should continue to rise, even if they may need a breather.
Features:
-Tesla stock was up by over 2% in premarket trading on Friday, closing down 0.2% just under $220 a share. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively. Tesla shares are still about $25, or 10%, below where they closed just before reporting weaker-than-expected second-quarter numbers. The miss generated price-target cuts and analyst downgrades, with Phillip Securities analyst Jonathan Woo cutting his rating to Sell from Reduce and his price target going to $135 from $145. The downgrade reflects factors that have already affected the stock this week, such as pricing, tariffs, and profit-margin pressure. Tesla's management spent little time dispelling concerns over its stalling auto business, which was reflected in Wednesday's drop. Tesla shares have picked up about $5 from post-earnings lows because the quarter wasn't great, but it was not all that bad.
-3M reported better-than-expected second-quarter earnings with growth picking up, resulting in a 23% gain on shares. The company announced adjusted earnings per share of $1.93 on sales of $6B, which was higher than Wall Street's expected $1.68 from sales of $5.9B. Shares gained 23%, closing at $127.16, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.1% and 1.6%, respectively. This was the largest one-day gain for the stock ever, according to Dow Jones Market Research. Year-over-year comparability is affected by the company's healthcare spinoff, which completed the separation of Solventum on April 1. Adjusted for the spin, 3M reported first-quarter earnings per share of about $1.70 on sales of $5.7B. Organic sales grew by about 1% in the first quarter and by about 1.2% in the second quarter. CEO William Brown stated that 3M delivered another strong quarter with adjusted earnings growth up double-digits and robust cash generation.
Europe:
-Ursula von der Leyen has been elected as the second five-year term as European Commission president, winning a first-ballot majority of the European Parliament. Despite the election, the future of the EU seems less inspiring. Von der Leyen, a 65-year-old former German defense minister, has proven to be an extraordinary crisis manager, leading the EU to take decisive action during the Covid pandemic, support Ukraine, and wean the EU off Russian natural gas imports. However, the bloc may revert to its glacial status quo without such fires to fight and with its two dominant member states in political disarray. The most effective change in the new European Parliament is not the rise of the far right, but the decline of the Greens, who slipped from 70 to 53 seats in the 720-member body. The focus is now shifting to how to reduce emissions while maintaining economic growth. Hard renewable energy targets are giving way to fuzzier rhetoric about increasing Europe's competitiveness, with talk of a "capital markets union" harmonizing national financial regulations and taxation.
Emerging Markets:
-No update
Commodities:
-No update
Streetwise:
-Apple is set to introduce Apple Intelligence, a new feature in its iPhone lineup, which aims to integrate artificial intelligence tools into its devices. The company has released a short film showcasing new tricks, such as allowing users to create emojis and images by typing or speaking. The feature also includes Siri, Apple's voice assistant, which is becoming more capable. A beta version of the new features will launch this fall for iPhone 15 users, recent iPads, and Mac computers. Those with older phones can stay in the Stone Age or upgrade to the iPhone 16, which has Wall Street debating whether the iPhone supercycle is on the horizon. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives believes Apple is heading for an "AI Driven Massive Upgrade Cycle," with Cupertino being the gatekeepers of the consumer AI Revolution. Erik Woodring at Morgan Stanley also supports Apple Intelligence, calling it a clear path to a multiyear product upgrade cycle. In mid-July, he named Apple a top pick and raised his price target from $216 to $273.


