>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls
  • Upgrades:
    • American Woodmark (AMWD) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $110
    • Ball Corp (BALL) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird; tgt $70
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush; tgt raised to $58
    • Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $24
    • EQT Corp. (EQT) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $42
    • Hudbay Minerals (HBM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies
    • HUYA (HUYA) upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup; tgt raised to $6
    • Illumina (ILMN) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays; tgt $125
    • Illumina (ILMN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at TD Cowen; tgt raised to $144
    • Johnson Controls (JCI) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $69
    • L'Oreal (LRLCY) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies
    • Meritage (MTH) upgraded to Outperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $230
    • nCino (NCNO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $42
    • Nkarta (NKTX) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James; tgt $16
    • Sportradar Group AG (SRAD) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $16
    • Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt raised to $120
    • Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt raised to $118
    • Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt raised to $110
  • Downgrades:
    • ACELYRIN (SLRN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt lowered to $6
    • Emerson (EMR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $115
    • Hershey Foods (HSY) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
    • Hexcel (HXL) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $68
    • Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Intuit (INTU) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $685
    • L3Harris (LHX) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $240
    • Marinus Pharmaceuticals (MRNS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann
    • Medtronic (MDT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel; tgt lowered to $85
    • Playa Hotels & Resorts (PLYA) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup; tgt lowered to $8
    • PulteGroup (PHM) downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research
    • Ranpak (PACK) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird; tgt $10
  • Others:
    • Bitdeer Technologies (BTDR) resumed with a Buy at Rosenblatt; tgt $9
    • DTE Energy (DTE) initiated with a Buy at Ladenburg Thalmann; tgt $131
    • Enova International (ENVA) initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research; tgt $90
    • Gain Therapeutics (GANX) resumed with an Outperform at Oppenheimer; tgt $8
    • Korro Bio (KRRO) initiated with an Outperform at William Blair; tgt $180
    • Montrose Environmental Group (MEG) initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt $43
    • TeraWulf (WULF) resumed with a Buy at Rosenblatt; tgt $5
    • VSE Corp (VSEC) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $100

>>> US D1 Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New QSR W

D1 Capital discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New QSR WMG XPO MRVL IREN positions, Added to LEN AMZN LYV SQ, Exited EQR DLO GOOGL PCOR META AVB CPT ADI UNH
Highlights from Q2 2024 filing as compared to Q1 2024 (all amounts are approximate):
  • New positions in: QSR (2.84 mln shares), WMG (2.75 mln), XPO (2.56 mln), MRVL (1.55 mln), IREN (1.53 mln), HUT (1.16 mln), VIK (0.88 mln), MTZ (0.74 mln), BTDR (0.53 mln), PDD (0.47 mln)
  • Increased positions in: LEN (to 2.42 mln shares from 0.46 mln shares), NU (to 14.61 mln from 12.92 mln), LYV (to 3.54 mln from 2.45 mln), SQ (to 1.83 mln from 1.04 mln), RCL (to 1.51 mln from 0.74 mln), GEV (to 1.37 mln from 0.7 mln), AMZN (to 1.29 mln from 0.78 mln), WDAY (to 0.52 mln from 0.21 mln), SPOT (to 0.68 mln from 0.64 mln)
  • Maintained positions in: CART (28.91 mln shares)
  • Closed positions in: EQR (from 6.93 mln shares), DLO (from 3.77 mln), GOOGL (from 2.37 mln), PCOR (from 0.81 mln), META (from 0.79 mln), AVB (from 0.45 mln), CPT (from 0.33 mln), GWRE (from 0.31 mln), ADI (from 0.3 mln), UNH (from 0.16 mln)
  • Decreased positions in: RIVN (to 0.1 mln shares from 5.87 mln shares), WRBY (to 9.44 mln from 14.94 mln), INVH (to 3.4 mln from 6.28 mln), HDB (to 3.43 mln from 5.83 mln), TPX (to 0.13 mln from 1.3 mln), PM (to 6.09 mln from 7.24 mln), CCL (to 3.72 mln from 4.57 mln), PODD (to 0.27 mln from 1 mln), ELV (to 0.3 mln from 0.53 mln), PFE (to 7.62 mln from 7.83 mln), STZ (to 0.57 mln from 0.66 mln), MSFT (to 0.31 mln from 0.33 mln)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • OUST -15.8%, EAT -15.1%, GLBE -14.6%, USPH -3.9%, IBTA -3% (also announces partnership with Instacart), NPCE -2.5%, FNV -1%
Other news:
  • SLRN -11.1% (announces phase 3 data for Izokibep; focuses strategy on Lonigutamab)
  • RNA -3.3% ($250 mln stock offering)
  • NAVI -2.8% (to sell equity interests in Xtend Healthcare for $365 mln)
  • ENZL -1.8% (agreed to ease the level of monetary policy restraint by reducing the OCR to 5.25%)
  • VALE -1.6% (completes acquisition of stake in Aliança Energia)
  • GOOG -1.4% (DOJ considers breaking up Google following court ruling, according to Bloomberg)
  • SQSP -0.9% (Glazer Capital details its opposition to the proposed acquisition of Squarespace by Permira)
  • BLUE -0.9% (files to delay form 10Q)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • SERV +20.6%, VSCO +15.2% (guidance), MRX +14.8%, MRCY +11.7%, GRAL +8.9%, SPHR +8.7%, SDHC +8.4%, XP +7.1%, FLUT +7% (also does not plan to match rival DKNG, which plans to introduce a player surcharge in high-tax states, according to Bloomberg), QFIN +6.6%, SLDB +6.3%, CAH +6.3%, CAE +5.9%, RSKD +5.5%, INTA +4.7%, FATE +4.2%, SVM +3.7%, PFGC +3.4%, UBS +3.1%, NATL +2.4%, NU +2.2%, ESLT +1.3%, DOLE +1%, ARCO +0.8%
Other news:
  • VRCA +22.6% (results from Part 2 of its Phase 2 clinical trial studying VP-315 for the treatment of basal cell carcinoma)
  • ANAB +11% (prices offering of 2,750,498 shares of its common stock at $36.50 per share)
  • HA +10.3% (Hawaiian Holdings discloses that it and Alaska (ALK) agreed with the DOJ to further extend the Review Period until 12:01 a.m., Eastern Time, on August 16, 2024) K +7.9% (Mars confirmed it will acquire Kellanova for $83.50/share in cash)
  • GEO +4.8% (Executive Chairman disclosed the purchase of 250,000 shares at $12.17 - $12.35 worth about $3.1 mln)
  • PFGC +3.4% (enters into a definitive agreement with Cheney Bros. for $2.1 billion in cash)
  • NVST +2.4% (CFO insider buy disclosure - bought 24,532 shares at $16.26 - $16.42 worth approx. $400K)
  • ARM +1.9% (Intel (INTC) discloses that it sold stake in Arm Holdings)
  • BITF +1.8% (Riot Platforms reports beneficial ownership of 18.9% in Bitfarms)
  • ALL +1.7% (to sell American Heritage units to StanCorp for $2 bln in cash)
  • CORZ +1.5% (prices $400 mln of 3.00% convertible senior notes due 2029)
  • LUV +1.4% (Elliott Mgmt to launch proxy fight, according to WSJ; Elliott Management Announces Director Candidates for the Board of Southwest Airlines)
  • RIOT +1.3% (Riot Platforms reports beneficial ownership of 18.9% in Bitfarms)
  • LYFT +1.2% (CEO bought 51,815 shares)
  • ZURA +1.2% (presentation that Phase 2 study for tibulizumab targeting SSc starts in 4Q 2024, followed by HS in 2Q 2025)
  • USFD +1.1% (to repurchase $221 mln of its shares owned by a fund)
  • FIX +1% (increases share buyback authorization to 1 mln shares)

>>> Kellanova and Mars have entered into a definitive agreement under which Mars

Kellanova and Mars have entered into a definitive agreement under which Mars has agreed to acquire Kellanova for $83.50/share in cash, for a total consideration of $35.9 bln, including assumed net leverage (74.50)
  • The transaction price represents a premium of approximately 44% to Kellanova's unaffected 30-trading day volume weighted average price and a premium of approximately 33% to Kellanova's unaffected 52-week high as of August 2, 2024. The total consideration represents an acquisition multiple of 16.4x LTM adjusted EBITDA as of June 29, 2024.
  • Under the terms of the agreement, Mars will acquire all outstanding equity of Kellanova for $83.50 per share in cash, representing a total enterprise value of $35.9 billion. All of Kellanova's brands, assets and operations, including its snacking brands, portfolio of international cereal and noodles, North American plant-based foods and frozen breakfast are included in the transaction.
  • Mars intends to fully finance the acquisition through a combination of cash-on-hand and new debt, for which commitments have been secured.
  • The agreement has been unanimously approved by the Board of Directors of Kellanova. The transaction is subject to Kellanova shareholder approval and other customary closing conditions, including regulatory approvals, and is expected to close within the first half of 2025. The transaction agreement permits Kellanova to declare and pay quarterly dividends consistent with historical practice prior to the closing of the transaction.
  • The W.K. Kellogg Foundation Trust and the Gund Family have entered into agreements pursuant to which they have committed to vote shares representing 20.7% of Kellanova's common stock, as of August 9, 2024, in favor of the transaction.
  • After closing, Battle Creek, MI will remain a core location for the combined organization.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 14th of August 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Atlas Copco Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 205 kronor
* BPER Banca Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 6.84 euros
* Domino's Pizza Group Raised to Buy at Investec; PT 383 pence
* Grieg Seafood Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities (+)
* Henkel Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader (++)
* JDE Peet's Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 28.50 euros
* Johnson Controls Raised to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $69
* Jupiter Raised to Neutral at UBS (++)
* L'Oreal Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 365 euros
* Salmar Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities (+)
* Starbucks PT Raised to $100 from $80 at Gordon Haskett
* Starbucks Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT $118 (++)
* Starbucks PT Raised to $98 from $82 at Citi (++)
* Swissquote Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* United Internet Raised to Buy at UBS (++)

>>> Down
* Aker Solutions Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 48 kroner
* Cancom Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 32 euros
* Cancom Cut to Hold at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 32 euros (+)
* Emerson Electric Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $115
* Hargreaves Lansdown Cut to Hold at Investec; PT 1,110 pence (++)
* Hypoport PT Cut to 220 euros from 238 euros at Bankhaus Metzler (+)
* LPP Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 16,500 zloty
* Mandatum Cut to Market Perform at KBW; PT 4.20 euros
* Mandatum Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 4.50 euros
* UCB Cut to Hold at KBC Securities (+)
* Sparebanken Sor Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 165 kroner (++)
* Swissquote Cut to Hold at Research Partners; PT 290 Swiss francs (+)

>>> Initiation
* IMI Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT 2,380 pence

>>> Call
* BPER Banca Raised to Outperform, KBW Sees 42% Share Upside (+)
* JDE Peet’s Making Encouraging Progress, Jefferies Upgrades
* L’Oreal Upgraded to Hold at Jefferies, Caution Now Priced In
* Svitzer Rises; Citi Sees Consensus Uplift on Guidance Commentary (++)
* United Internet Gains as UBS Upgrades on Better 1&1 Outlook (+)
* Vestas Results Miss the Mark and Consensus Cuts Are Likely: RBC (+)

WSJ : Google’s New Phones Aren’t Really About the Phones

Google’s New Phones Aren’t Really About the Phones
Latest Pixel series is another distribution channel for Google’s premium AI services—plus a bit of a flex against Apple

Google has been in the smartphone business for a long while now—with seemingly little to show for it. But even the company that powers 91% of the world’s internet searches needs a little extra help sometimes.

At an event Tuesday afternoon, Google unveiled the ninth generation of its Pixel smartphone line. These are the phones that Google designs fully in-house, which typically draw high praise from reviewers but generate little in the way of actual sales. Google’s Pixel phones accounted for just under 1% of global smartphone shipments last year and the first half of this year, according to data from Counterpoint Research.

But the new phones are giving Google and its parent, Alphabet GOOGL 1.15%increase; green up pointing triangle, a chance to lean even harder into generative artificial intelligence. New AI features, such as an image-generating app called Pixel Studio and another app that scans screenshots for content, took up the majority of time at Tuesday’s event—far more than any hardware design elements. And some new features won’t even be exclusive to the Pixel, as Google wants its AI tools widely dispersed across other phones running on its Android mobile operating system. Gemini Live—a conversational AI chatbot powered by voice—is rolling out to all compatible Android phones in English on Tuesday, and Google said a version for Apple’s AAPL 1.72%increase; green up pointing triangle iOS devices is also coming soon.

The catch? Gemini Live and other AI features are only available to subscribers of Google’s Gemini Advanced plan. That plan costs $20 a month, though Google is throwing in a year of free access to buyers of its higher-end Pixel Pro, XL and Fold devices.

That might seem steep—especially since Android users are already accustomed to having Google’s well-known digital assistant free of charge. But Google has actually proven more adept at upselling once-free services than it has in selling premium smartphones. Non-advertising revenue from YouTube—much of which comes from viewers wishing to avoid ads—totaled $11.9 billion last year, which is 20% higher than Google’s total hardware revenue for the year, according to consensus estimates from Visible Alpha. YouTube’s non-ad revenue has also averaged 52% annual growth over the past four years, compared with 16% for all Google hardware, according to those same estimates.

Upselling AI on a mobile device is still no sure thing, though. Particularly given some high-profile stumbles by Google over the past 18 months, as it has raced to stay competitive with Microsoft and its anointed AI partner, OpenAI. And Google now faces the added challenge of competing with Apple’s generative AI debut. Apple Intelligence—the iPhone maker’s moniker for a set of new AI tools designed for its devices—is set to launch this fall.

But while Google may be a bit player in hardware, its products like search, Gmail and Android are effectively the world’s largest distribution network for new technologies such as generative AI. And its Pixel event Tuesday proved a bit of a flex in that regard, coming a month ahead of when Apple typically introduces its new iPhones. Rick Osterloh, who runs Google’s device business, emphasized repeatedly Tuesday that the AI services shown at the event are ready for launch—another subtle dig at the more gradual rollout expected for Apple Intelligence.

Google’s little phone business is clearly still looking to punch above its weight.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • SERV +15%, MRCY +8.8%, GRAL +8%, FLUT +6.6%, INTA +6.3%, XP +6%, SVM +4.7%, QFIN +4.7%, FATE +4.5%, CAE +4.4%, NU +3.9%, DOLE +3.1%, SLDB +2.9%, UBS +2.5%, NATL +2.4%, BITF +1.8%, ALL +1.7%, ESLT +1.7%, LUV +1.6%, NPCE +1.6%, ARM +1.4%, FIX +1.3%, SOL +1.3%, CORZ +1.2%, USFD +1.1%, LYFT +1%, RIOT +0.9%, SFL +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • OUST -16.1%, IBTA -8.1%, USPH -3.9%, RNA -3.8%, NAVI -2.8%, VALE -1.8%, GOOG -1%, FNV -1%