>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

MDAX:
  • Traton (8TRA TH) +2.8%
    • Traton Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 35 euros
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +2.1%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) +1.3%
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) +1%
  • LEG Immobilien (LEG TH) -1%
    • LEG Upsizes Convertible Bonds Due 2030 With €200M Tap Offering
SDAX:
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +1.7%
  • Grenke (GLJ TH) +1.5%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +1.2%
  • CompuGroup (COP TH) -2.3%
    • CompuGroup Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 18 euros

>>> What to look at today - 28th of November 2024

Equities in China underperformed the region on Thursday as traders awaited signals of further stimulus from policymakers in Beijing ahead of a key economic meeting next month.  Benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China fell, while stocks in Australia advanced. Shares in Japanese semiconductor-related companies jumped amid a report that the US is considering lighter-than-expected restrictions on sales of chip equipment and AI memory semiconductors to China. US equity futures climbed. Usually held in December, China’s Central Economic Work Conference typically offered a blueprint on monetary, fiscal and various industrial policies for the coming year. 
The talk of sanctions underscored the persistent threat to already fragile trade relations between the US and China, which was weighing on the region. Asian equities were on pace for their first back-to-back monthly drawdown this year following the dollar’s recent advance and concerns over escalating trade tensions. Despite optimism on the potential for further stimulus from Beijing, “there are increased concerns and frustrations,” from investors, Winnie Wu, China equity strategist for Bank of America Securities, said on Bloomberg Television. The potential for further support and the prospect of US tariffs on China mean even long-term investors “are focusing on the next three to six months, or even three to six weeks,” she said. Australian and New Zealand yields fell Thursday, tracking moves in Treasuries on Wednesday. Investors had sought the safety of US government debt, pushing 10-year yields lower. There’s no cash trading of US Treasuries in Asia on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday. A pick-up in the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation is reinforcing the case for policymakers to proceed gradually with further interest-rate cuts. Traders are also weighing the expected impact of Donald Trump’s administration picks, with the US president-elect’s policies expected to reinforce price pressures. In currencies, the yen weakened Thursday, moderating a Wednesday gain of more than 1% against the greenback which drove it to the strongest since late October. The move came amid views that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates at its December meeting.  The nation’s cabinet was also set to approve a $92 billion extra budget to finance Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s stimulus package, according to state broadcaster NHK.The Japanese currency is “unlikely to trade below 150 for any significant amount of time given still-wide interest rate differentials that continue to favor the dollar,” Win Thin, global head of markets strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., wrote in a note. Elsewhere, the Mexican peso advanced after President-elect Donald Trump held talks with Mexico’s president Claudia Sheinbaum. South Korea’s won weakened as the Bank of Korea unexpectedly cut interest rates 25 basis points to 3%. In commodities, gold and silver prices fell Thursday, while oil treaded water as OPEC+ was expected to delay a production restart. Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded around $96,000 after a rally on Wednesday. US After Hours APLT -76.5% falls after FDA did not approve the NDA; MSFT -0.4% ticks lower on Bloomberg report that it's facing a broad FTC investigation

Nikkei +0.56% Hang Seng -1.18% CSI -0.59% Shanghai -011% Shenzen -0.23%

Eur$ 1.0549 CNH 7.2540 CNY 7.2463 JPY 151.49 GBP 1.2664 CHF .8831 RUB 113.51 TRY 34.6701 WTI$ 68.71 Gold 2,636 BTC 95,700 ETH 3,603

S&P +0.13% Nasdaq +0.21% EuroStoxx +0.61% FTSE +0.16% Dax +0.36% SMI +0.38%

Macro :
- Crypto Stocks Surge as Bitcoin Rallies Toward $100,000 Milestone
- Trump Picks Keith Kellogg as Envoy for Ukraine and Russia
- Bitcoin Gets Boost as Crypto Supporters Vie to Head US Agencies

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : AccorInvest 9M Revenue EU3.074B, Up 4% Y/Y
- ADJ GY : Adler Names Karl Reinitzhuber CEO, Succeeding Beaudemoulin
- ADJ GY : Adler Group 9M Rental Income EU155M Vs. EU160M Y/y
- ADYEN NA : *ADYEN PARTNERS WITH TRIPLA ON PAYMENT PLATFORM
- AV/ LN : Direct Line Confirms Rejected Aviva’s ‘Highly Opportunistic’ Bid
- BO DC : B&O Offering of 24.6m Shares Prices at DKK9.27/Share
- BRETEC FH : Bioretec Offers EU5 million Shares via Danske Bank
- BA US : BOC Aviation to Buy 14 Boeing 737-8 Aircraft
- CAI AV : CA Immo 9M Net Loss EU33.4M Vs. Profit EU61.2M Y/y
- COV FP : Covivio Targets 1/3 Exposure to Each Asset Class for 2030
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole Says It’s Designated as Systemically Important
- DHER GY : Talabat’s Bigger Deal to Test Depth of UAE IPO Demand: ECM Watch
- DLG LN : Aviva Says Direct Line Board Rejected Proposal as Undervalued
- FNAC FP : Fnac Darty Purchases 105,145 Unieuro Shares at About EU11.66
- GALD SW : Galderma’s Nemolizumab Trial Met Primary, Secondary Endpoints
- GET FP : Getlink Expects Interconnector to Return to Service Dec. 16
- GRF SM : Grifols Board Agreed Brookfield Transaction Won’t Move Forward
- GTT FP : GTT Gets Order From Samsung Heavy for LNG Carrier Tank Design
- HEI GY : Heidelberg Materials Unit Buys Giant Cement for ~$600m
- KOJAMO FH : Kojamo Names Solidium’s Reima Rytsola As New CEO
- MSFT US : US Antitrust Watchdog Launches Broad Microsoft Investigation
- NNE US : NANO Nuclear Energy Announces Closing of $60 Million Private Placement with Three Accredited Institutional Investors
- NEXI IM : Italy’s CDP Weighs Buying Nexi’s Network Services Unit: Corriere
- OMV AV : OMV CEO Says Gazprom Gas Supply Contract Still Running: SZ
- QDT FP : Quadient Confirms 2024 Outlook
- IDS LN : Kretinsky Close to Concluding Deal for Royal Mail: BBC
- RCO FP : Remy Cointreau Sees FY Organic Revenue -15% to -18%, Est. -11.8%
- SPR US : Citadel, Pimco Among Spirit Bondholders Poised to Get Equity
- SKAB SS : Skanska Signs Contract Worth About SEK300m
- SRG IM : Snam’s Board Authorizes Potential Bond Issue of Up To $3b
- STLA IM : Stellantis Keeps Slashing Car Output in Italy Over EV Slump
- SPSN SW : Swiss Prime Sees Sales Proceeds of CHF275M-CHF300M by End 2024
- TIFS LN : Apollo-Backed ABC Is Said to Near £1 Billion Deal for TI Fluid
- UNIR IM : Fnac Darty Purchases 105,145 Unieuro Shares at About EU11.66
- FR FP : Valeo to Cut 868 Posts in France, AFP Reports
- VIV FP : Vivendi Says Investor Seeks to Postpone Dec. 9 Vote on Split

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 28th of November 2024

>>> Up
* Alior Raised to Buy at Erste Group; PT 125 zloty
* Assa Abloy Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 375 kronor
* Epiroc Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 200 kronor
* Kone Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 55 euros
* Spirax Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 8,200 pence
* Stadler Rail Raised to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 20 Swiss francs
* Tesco Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 410 pence
* Traton Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 35 euros
* Voestalpine Raised to Buy at Erste Group; PT 25.50 euros

>>> Down
* Allegro Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 33 zloty
* Alfa Laval Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 450 kronor
* Ambarella Cut to Sell at CFRA
* Bouygues Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 37 euros
* CompuGroup Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 18 euros
* Cranswick Cut to Sector Perform at RBC
* DocuSign Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $65
* Dustin Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Elisa Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 50 euros
* HP Inc Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT $38
* Proximus Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 8.60 euros

>>> Initiation
* Halma Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 2,900 pence
* Smiths Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 2,400 pence
* Solstad Rated New Buy at SpareBank; PT 56 kroner
* Straumann Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 145 Swiss francs
* Sunrise Communications/old Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan

>>> Call
* Belships Gets Another Buy as SEB Equities Sees Slew of Catalysts
* Direct Line Counter Offer Possible, Aviva Buyback at Risk: JPM
* Sainsbury, Tesco Double-Upgraded, Selective in Sector: JPMorgan
* Spirax, Smiths Rated Buy in New Coverage at Citi; Halma Neutral
* Straumann Strategy Hitting the Right Notes, New Buy at Berenberg

FT : First 24-hour US stock exchange approved

First 24-hour US stock exchange approved
Regulators grant 24 Exchange nod for round-the-clock trading

A 24-hour stock exchange has been approved by US regulators, allowing expanded round the clock trading for the first time in any major market.

Start-up 24 Exchange, which is backed by Steve Cohen’s Point72 Ventures fund, was given the nod for a two-part plan by the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday.

It will launch initially in regular hours, then expand to include a nightly back-of the-clock session between Sunday and Thursday once broader market infrastructure is in place.

While Treasuries and major currencies, such as the dollar, are traded almost continuously on weekdays, stocks have been something of a laggard because of tight rules designed to protect investors, and because of the complexities and time needed to settle trades.

But in recent years round-the-clock trading has been given a boost by the rise of retail investors who are keen to trade stocks outside working hours just as they deal in cryptocurrencies, which operate all the time.

Brokers such as Robinhood execute customer out-of-hours stock orders in so-called “dark pools” whose members trade among themselves, and whose prices are not disseminated across the market.

A regulated overnight exchange will mark a big change because it represents the “lit” market where trades and their prices become the official record. This is designed to help investors get the best price but may catch those asleep off-guard.

“Traders are most at-risk when the market is closed in their geographic location,” said Dmitri Galinov, chief executive and founder of 24X. “(We) will seek to alleviate this problem by facilitating around-the-clock US equities trading,” he added, describing the approval as a “thrilling development”.

This was 24X’s second application to the SEC, after a previous attempt in 2023 met with objections and queries. The approved version also modified an original plan to offer trading at weekends.

24X must now work with rival exchanges, which between them manage the consolidated “tape” of market prices, on how to manage and fund its expansion to cover trading between 8pm and 4am before it can launch its overnight session.

The approval comes just weeks after the New York Stock Exchange filed an application to expand its own trading day to 22 hours. The move underlined the growing appeal of night-time dealing, even as many institutional investors are worried light overnight trading volumes could allow small trades to have an outsized effect on prices.

Tyler Gellasch, chief executive of the investor advocate group Healthy Markets Association, warned: “A price move from a 5,000 or 20,000 share order overnight that leads to a margin call on a 2mn share position — that isn’t something an institutional investor running a pension fund wants to be waking up to.”

Sifma, an industry body that had called for the SEC to conduct a wider review of the implications of 24-hour trading, said it was reviewing the regulator’s 106-page approval order.

>>> US After Hours Summary: APLT -76.5% falls after FDA did not approve the NDA;

After Hours Summary: APLT -76.5% falls after FDA did not approve the NDA; MSFT -0.4% ticks lower on Bloomberg report that it's facing a broad FTC investigation

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: CMTL +1.3% (names new Exec Chairman), PRTH +1.2% (files for $100 mln offering; also files offering by selling shareholders), SAND +0.6% (provides operational update), MNR +0.4% (files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering), GILD +0.2% (announces NEJM publication of PURPOSE 2 results)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: BMA -2.9%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: APLT -76.5% (FDA unable to approve the NDA for govorestat in its current form), QGEN -5.2% (launches two new tools for designing and ordering custom solutions), VEL -0.8% (files for $100 mln common stock offering), MSFT -0.4% (facing broad FTC investigation, according to Bloomberg), FSP -0.3% (enters into cooperation agreement)

FT : Met police opens investigation into Mohamed Al Fayed’s associates

Met police opens investigation into Mohamed Al Fayed’s associates
Force looking into those suspected of being ‘complicit in offending’ of late Harrods owner

London’s Metropolitan police have opened an investigation into associates of Mohamed Al Fayed who “may have assisted or facilitated” the late billionaire owner of Harrods in alleged rapes and sexual assaults.   

A dedicated unit within the force has been conducting a review of past investigations into Al Fayed, who died in 2023, to see if any opportunities to bring him to justice were missed.

The Met said on Wednesday it had been contacted by 90 “new victims,” some reporting multiple offences, since the BBC broadcast a documentary in September detailing crimes that the Egyptian-born billionaire allegedly carried out against former Harrods employees.

As a result of their assessment so far, detectives have launched an investigation into “a number of individuals associated with Al Fayed” and are working to establish “what roles those individuals may have played in assisting and facilitating” his offending, the Met said.

It added that it was working closely with the Crown Prosecution Service and would be seeking early advice on the potential for pressing charges.   

“This investigation is about giving survivors a voice, despite the fact that Mohamed Al Fayed is no longer alive to face prosecution. However, we are now pursuing any individuals suspected to have been complicit in his offending, and we are committed to seeking justice,” said Stephen Clayman, of the Met’s specialist command unit.

The Egyptian-born billionaire, whose son Dodi was killed in a car crash in Paris in 1997 alongside Diana, the late Princess of Wales, bought Harrods in 1985 and sold it in 2010.

Between 2005 and 2023 the Met approached the Crown Prosecution Service about Al Fayed on five occasions, it has said previously, and passed on “full files of evidence” in 2009 and 2015. No further action was taken by the CPS.

On Wednesday, the force said that while past investigations were extensive and conducted by specialist teams, the contact and support of victims could “have been improved”.

Two cases have been referred to the Independent Office for Police Conduct following complaints from two women about the quality of investigations conducted in 2008, it said.  

Most of the women interviewed by the BBC, who worked at Harrods from the late 1980s to the 2000s, said alleged assaults were carried out at the company’s offices, in Al Fayed’s London apartment or on trips abroad.

In the documentary, the BBC gathered evidence that Harrods failed to intervene and also helped to cover up allegations against Al Fayed. The retailer said it had accepted “vicarious liability for the conduct of Al Fayed” and had reached settlements “with the vast majority of people” who approached it.

Specialist police teams have now reviewed more than 50,000 pages of evidence, including victim and impact statements, and retrieved significant amounts of material from the archives, the Met said.

“We are aware that past events may have impacted the public’s trust and confidence in our approach, and we are determined to rebuild that trust by addressing these allegations with integrity and thoroughness,” Clayman said.

Challenges : Patrimoine français : la promesse saoudienne de 800 millions s’évap

Patrimoine français : la promesse saoudienne de 800 millions s’évapore

En 2018, l’Arabie saoudite s’engageait à financer un fonds de dotation pour restaurer le patrimoine français, en contrepartie d’un partenariat autour du site d’Al-Ula. Six ans plus tard, la promesse de 800 millions d’euros s’évapore, laissant un projet en demi-teinte.

Jean-Noël Barrot avec son homologue saoudien en octobre dernier.Jean-Noël Barrot avec son homologue saoudien en octobre dernier.
AFP / -
En 2018, la France signait avec Riyad un partenariat pour le développement d’Al-Ula, une région riche en patrimoine archéologique, que le royaume cherchait à développer sur le plan touristique. L’Agence française pour le développement d’Al-Ula (Afalula) est alors créée. Gérard Mestrallet, ancien PDG de Suez, assure la présidence pendant cinq ans avant d’être remplacé fin 2023 par Jean-Yves Le Drian. L’ancien ministre des Armées commande alors un audit à l’Inspection des finances sur l’agence. Une mission d’information du Sénat s’est, elle, récemment intéressée aux relations de la France avec l’Arabie saoudite. Dans une synthèse de ses travaux, les sénateurs présentent un bilan en demi-teinte du projet Al-Ula.

Du côté des coopérations réussies, le rapport souligne que « depuis la création d’Afalula en 2018, 346 contrats ont été signés par 203 entreprises privées et acteurs publics français, dont 194 contrats par des PME, pour une valeur totale de 2,32 milliards d’euros environ ».

Alstom, Jean Nouvel… Des entreprises françaises à l’offensive
Parmi les projets emblématiques : le tramway conçu par Alstom, pour un montant total de plus de 500 millions d’euros ; un hôtel conçu par Jean Nouvel au cœur de la réserve naturelle de Shaaran ; les bâtiments de la Villa Hegra par l’agence Lacaton & Vassal. Les sénatrices, rédactrices du rapport, soulignent que « la présence française est très visible à Al-Ula, et sera bientôt inscrite dans le paysage avec les projets architecturaux de la Villa Hegra ou l’hôtel de Jean Nouvel ».

Pour autant, il reste des déconvenues, notamment liées à un contexte de « concurrence exacerbée » mais aussi à des « frictions qui ont émaillé les discussions entre le PDG de la Royal Commission for Al-Ula (RCU), Amr al-Madani, et Afalula, qu’il avait tendance à considérer comme un partenaire parmi d’autres ». Le rapport souligne que « la RCU travaille également avec de nombreux consultants internationaux qui, dans certains dossiers, voient la concurrence française d’un mauvais œil ».

Ainsi, la participation du Centre Pompidou à la conception du futur musée d’art contemporain a été « moins importante qu’espéré ».

Le fonds de dotation : une promesse de 800 millions réduite à néant
Encore plus obscur, l’accord signé avec Riyad en 2018 prévoyait le versement d’une allocation par le royaume pour soutenir le patrimoine français : « La partie française alloue l’intégralité de cette somme à un fonds de dotation français, géré par des institutions françaises, dont l’objectif unique sera le soutien du patrimoine de la France », précise alors le décret sur le contenu de l’accord.

En 2019, Gérard Mestrallet disait que le fonds servirait « à financer des travaux civils, des ponts anciens, des châteaux de province ou des petites églises qui, contrairement à Notre-Dame, n’ont pas la chance de mobiliser des donateurs ».

Cinq ans plus tard, ce fonds de dotation ambitieux, dont l’objectif initial était de 800 millions d’euros, n’a toujours pas vu le jour. L’enveloppe envisagée a même été « considérablement réduite » : pas plus de « 50 millions, selon les réponses adressées par Afalula à un questionnaire écrit de la délégation », précise le rapport sénatorial.

Cette promesse contractuelle se voulait, au départ, une contrepartie à l’engagement français dans Al-Ula. Le projet avait ressurgi en mars 2023, à l’occasion du déplacement en Arabie saoudite de l’ex-ministre de la Culture Rima Abdul Malak. Mais les Saoudiens entendaient déjà diviser par deux leurs allocations et demandaient un « fléchage » partagé pour la désignation des sites censés profiter de ces aides.

La ministre de la Culture avait fait alors valider le principe d’une liste d’une demi-douzaine de lieux, tels que le château de Compiègne (Oise), qui auraient pu en bénéficier. Finalement, de tout cela, il ne reste vraiment pas grand-chose. Même si l’espoir subsiste. Le 16 novembre, une délégation du ministre de la Culture saoudien a été reçue au Quai d’Orsay.

Dernier espoir avec la visite de Macron
La réunion était présidée par le prince Badr ben Abdullah ben Mohammed Al-Farhan, ministre de la Culture et gouverneur de la Commission royale pour le gouvernorat d’Al-Ula, et Jean-Noël Barrot, ministre français de l’Europe et des Affaires étrangères, en présence de la ministre de la Culture, Rachida Dati, du ministre de l’Économie Antoine Armand, et du président de l’Agence française pour le développement d’Al-Ula, Jean-Yves Le Drian. Rien de précis n’a été communiqué sur le financement de la fondation pour le patrimoine français.

Un dernier espoir subsiste encore avec la visite officielle d’Emmanuel Macron en Arabie saoudite, du 2 au 4 décembre.

Contactée, l’Élysée assure ne pas avoir d’informations particulières sur ce dossier et renvoie au Quai d’Orsay, qui lui-même renvoie au ministère de la Culture, qui, de son côté, ne répond pas… Même au Sénat, à l’origine du rapport, on reconnaît ne pas avoir eu accès à des informations claires sur le sujet.

Challenges : The standoff between Drahi and his creditors is getting tougher aga

The standoff between Drahi and his creditors is getting tougher against the backdrop of a subscriber hemorrhage at SFR
After taking a step towards the banks during negotiations on Altice's €24 billion debt, billionaire Patrick Drahi has transferred an asset beyond their reach.

SFR's situation continues to worsen. The turnover of Altice France, the operator's parent company, fell by 4.7% in the third quarter to €2.5 billion, according to the results published on Wednesday, November 27. Its gross operating surplus (EBITDA) fell by 9.9% to €879 million. The drop in subscribers continues, with 106,000 fewer mobile subscribers and 53,000 fewer fixed-line customers compared to the previous quarter.

Not enough to reassure creditors, so in the middle of a standoff with Patrick Drahi to renegotiate the group's colossal debt. In mid-November, Patrick Drahi and his debt holders stopped negotiations on the €24 billion debt weighing on Altice France. The billionaire, owner of the telecoms operator SFR, had just placed his subsidiary XpFibre in an entity outside the scope of Altice France, which thus escapes its lenders. "You can't negotiate a debt on a company and empty it of its assets at the same time!" complains a source.

According to a person close to the case, "this is an attempt at extortion and blackmail, it is not in the company's interest to dispose of an asset". In the coming weeks, the lenders will open litigation, assures the same source. For Timothée Gagnepain, a lawyer specializing in debt restructuring for the firm McDermott Will & Emery, "funds want to maximize their profits and do not hesitate to go far and use the weapon of litigation."

An agreement in sight for Drahi and his creditors
The announcement could be a way for Patrick Drahi to exert pressure on his creditors. During the first round of discussions between the billionaire and the lenders of the 20 billion in secured debt, that is to say guaranteed by assets, each camp had taken a step towards the other. The head of SFR – and the 17th largest professional fortune in France – had said he was ready to immediately pay 2.6 billion euros in exchange for the cancellation of the old debt and the establishment of a new one, of 13.7 billion, at an average interest rate of 6.5%, and the postponement of the repayment deadlines to 2029 and 2031. That is a two-year breather compared to current maturities.

In return, the creditors could obtain 18% of the capital of Altice France. In a counter-proposal, the latter, led by the firms Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher and Rothschild & Co, asked for more: a new debt of 14.4 billion euros, an interest rate of 7.5% and an increase in capital to 34%.

A cooperation agreement
But the negotiations have not gone any further for the moment and Patrick Drahi preferred to transfer XpFibre out of their reach. "The discussions are extremely long because each creditor has divergent interests, no one bought the debt at the same price," puts into perspective an investment banker.

The creditors have joined forces in a "cooperation agreement", an instrument frequently used in the United States that allows them to speak with one voice. Nearly 95% of the creditors of the secured debt, or €18.5 billion of the €20 billion, have signed the agreement that runs until February 2026.

Patrick Drahi's Plan B
While waiting to find an agreement, Patrick Drahi, advised by the Lazard bank, is rolling out his Plan B, which will be implemented if the billionaire and his lenders do not find a compromise. "XpFibre has been placed in a basket on which the management of Altice France could raise new debt, explains a banker. This would take priority over the old debt. » In short, to repay his nearest instalments, Patrick Drahi could borrow again, on the entity that owns XpFibre and create a new pyramid of debts. Rumors are swirling around the Apollo fund.

Timothée Gagnepain reminds us that in this negotiation, everyone plays their part. "There is a lot of bluffing, poker moves and an escalation in the manifestation of a balance of power but each side has an interest in finding an agreement, everyone wants to save their skin and leave with as much money as possible, it is a classic financial game." The first round of negotiations is now closed, the poker game continues behind the scenes.

Challenges : Le bras de fer entre Drahi et ses créanciers se durcit sur fond d’h

Le bras de fer entre Drahi et ses créanciers se durcit sur fond d’hémorragie d’abonnés chez SFR
Après avoir fait un pas vers les banques lors de négociations sur la dette de 24 milliards d’euros d’Altice, le milliardaire Patrick Drahi a transféré un actif hors de leur portée.


La situation de SFR continue d’empirer. Le chiffre d’affaires d’Altice France, maison mère de l’opérateur recule de 4,7 % au troisième trimestre à 2,5 milliards d’euros, selon les résultats publiés ce mercredi 27 novembre. Son excédent brut d’exploitation (Ebitda) chute de 9,9 % à 879 millions d’euros. La chute d’abonnés se poursuit, avec 106 000 abonnés mobiles et 53 000 clients sur le fixe en moins par rapport au trimestre précédent.

Pas de quoi rassurer les créanciers, donc en plein bras de fer avec Patrick Drahi pour renégocier la dette colossale du groupe. Mi-novembre, Patrick Drahi et ses porteurs de dette ont stoppé les négociations sur la dette de 24 milliards d’euros pesant sur Altice France. Le milliardaire, propriétaire de l’opérateur télécoms SFR, venait de placer sa filiale XpFibre dans une entité en dehors du périmètre d’Altice France, qui échappe ainsi à ses prêteurs. « On ne peut pas négocier une dette sur une société et la vider de ses actifs dans le même temps ! » s’agace une source.

Selon un proche du dossier, « il s’agit d’une tentative d’extorsion et de chantage, ce n’est pas dans l’intérêt de la société de se départir d’un actif ». Dans les prochaines semaines, les prêteurs vont ouvrir des contentieux, assure cette même source. Pour Timothée Gagnepain, avocat spé­cialisé dans la restructuration de la dette pour le cabinet McDermott Will & Emery, « les fonds veulent maximiser leurs profits et n’hésitent pas à aller loin et à utiliser l’arme du contentieux ».

Un accord en vue pour Drahi et ses créanciers
L’annonce pourrait être une manière pour Patrick Drahi d’exercer une pression sur ses créanciers. Lors du premier round des discussions entre le milliardaire et les prêteurs des 20 milliards de dette sécurisée, c’est-à-dire garantie par des actifs, chaque camp avait fait un pas vers l’autre. Le patron de SFR – et 17e fortune professionnelle de France – s’était dit prêt à verser immédiatement 2,6 milliards d’euros en échange de l’annulation de l’ancienne dette et la mise en place d’une nouvelle, de 13,7 milliards, à un taux d’intérêt moyen de 6,5 %, et du décalage des échéances de remboursement à 2029 et 2031. Soit un ballon d’oxygène de deux ans par rapport aux maturités actuelles.

En contrepartie, les créanciers pourraient obtenir 18 % du capital d’Altice France. Dans une contre-proposition, ces derniers, emmenés par les cabinets Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher et Rothschild & Co en demandaient davantage : une nouvelle dette de 14,4 milliards d’euros, un taux d’intérêt de 7,5 % et une montée au capital à 34 %.

Un accord de coopération
Mais les négociations ne sont pas allées plus loin pour l’instant et Patrick Drahi a préféré transférer XpFibre hors de leur portée. « Les discussions sont extrêmement longues parce que chaque créancier a des intérêts divergents, personne n’a acheté la dette au même prix », met en perspective un banquier d’affaires.

Les créanciers se sont coalisés dans « un accord de coopération », un instrument fréquemment utilisé aux Etats-Unis qui leur permet de parler d’une seule voix. Près de 95 % des créanciers de la dette sécurisée, soit 18,5 milliards d’euros des 20 milliards d’euros, ont signé l’accord qui court jusqu’en février 2026.

Plan B de Patrick Drahi
En attendant de trouver un accord, Patrick Drahi, conseillé par la banque Lazard, déroule son plan B, qui sera appliqué si le milliardaire et ses prêteurs ne trouvent pas de compromis. « XpFibre a été placé dans un panier sur lequel le management d’Altice France pourrait lever de la nouvelle dette, explique un banquier. Celle-ci serait prioritaire par rapport à l’ancienne dette. » En clair, pour rembourser ses échéances les plus proches, Patrick Drahi pourrait s’endetter à nouveau, sur l’entité qui détient XpFibre et réaliser une nouvelle pyramide de dettes. Des rumeurs bruissent autour du fonds Apollo.

Timothée Gagnepain rappelle que dans cette négociation, chacun joue sa partition. « Il y a beaucoup de bluff, de coups de poker et une escalade dans la manifestation d’un rapport de force mais chaque camp à intérêt à trouver un accord, chacun veut sauver sa peau et partir avec le plus d’argent possible, c’est un jeu financier classique. » Le premier round des négociations étant désormais fermé, le jeu de poker se poursuit en coulisses.

TechCrunch : Pony AI’s valuation hits $5.25B after Nasdaq debut

Pony AI’s valuation hits $5.25B after Nasdaq debut

Chinese autonomous driving technology company Pony AI started trading on the Nasdaq on Wednesday at $15 per share, securing it a valuation of $5.25 billion. That opening price is 15% higher than Pony’s offering price of $13, which itself was at the high end of its expected range.

Pony sold 20 million American depositary shares in its initial public offering, raising $260 million. Strategic investors also bought around $153 million worth of Pony AI shares in private placements. The deal’s underwriters — Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Huatai Securities, and Tiger Brokers — have the option to buy an additional 3 million shares.

All told, Pony’s total proceeds could climb up to $452.4 million.

Following WeRide and Zeekr, Pony is the latest Chinese tech company to brave the U.S. public market after a de facto ban from Beijing. Investors will be keeping a close eye on Pony’s performance, particularly as both the U.S. and China seek to dominate advancements in autonomous vehicle technology.