Plunging iron ore price wipes $100bn off leading miners’ market value
Declining demand due to Chinese property rout threatens profit squeeze for producers including BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue
Iron ore prices have hit their lowest level in two years as China’s stricken property sector depresses steel demand, threatening to squeeze earnings at the world’s largest mining houses.
Prices for the key steelmaking ingredient have plunged by more than a third since the start of the year, cumulatively wiping off about $100bn in market capitalisation of the “big four” iron ore miners — BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue.
Iron ore for delivery to Qingdao has slipped to $92.2 per tonne, the lowest since November 2022 and below the key $100 mark at which high-cost production starts to become unprofitable, according to Argus data.
“Markets are justifiably worried that iron ore prices may be sustained below $100 per tonne in the near term,” said Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy research at Commonwealth Bank.
Hu Wangming, chair of Baowu Steel, the world’s largest steel producer, warned this week that the sector was in crisis, facing a “winter” that was “longer, colder and more difficult” than the previous market downturns of 2008 and 2015.
Iron ore is a cash cow for the world’s biggest miners such as BHP and Rio Tinto, giving them the firepower to make bumper returns for investors and a solid foundation for growth in other commodities such as copper and fertiliser.
The fall in iron ore has been compounded for the big miners by copper dropping almost a fifth from its record high in May to about $9,100 per tonne, as weak Chinese demand quelled an investor frenzy for the red metal.
However, the mining majors’ operations in Australia and Brazil are still hugely lucrative with iron ore at $100 per tonne because they are low cost. Both countries have exported record volumes in recent months.
Until recently, many executives seemed unfazed by the demand declines in China. Rio chief executive Jakob Stausholm last month told the Financial Times that steel demand for Chinese property had dropped 100mn tonnes but had a 40mn tonne boost from the energy transition between 2020 and 2023. That is a fraction of the 1.9bn tonnes of last year’s global iron ore production.
Analysts said the large mining groups would probably be disciplined to prevent iron ore prices from collapsing too far. Shipments from Australia and Brazil have started to slow, with July data pointing to a sharp decline.
“Iron ore is such a well structured industry,” said Bob Brackett, mining analyst at Bernstein. “The big global miners control their own supply chains. In the same way Opec won’t flood the market [for oil], they will simply slow down a bit if the market doesn’t want their tonnes.”
Nevertheless, the knock-on effects for steel and iron ore consumption from the sustained rout in China’s property market is giving many investors cause for concern, after housing starts were down by a quarter in the first half of the year following two years of double-digit contraction.
Steel mills in China are currently making negative profit margins because of a glut of the construction metal, piling pressure on them to cut production to boost prices and survive.
BHP and Vale pumped out iron ore at record volumes in the first half of 2024 and the bulk commodity is building up at Chinese ports with stockpiles rising 28 per cent to 150.4mn tonnes versus this time last year, according to SteelHome.
Among the large iron ore producers, shares in Fortescue, which derives more than 90 per cent of revenues from the commodity, has been hit harder than its peers. Paul McTaggart, an analyst at Citi, said that the company’s exposure to the commodity has proved “problematic”.
Although the downward pressure on iron ore prices is expected to squeeze profits and payouts at the leading miners, producers in China, Malaysia and South Africa, as well as smaller companies, are going to feel the pain the most, said Cicero Machado, senior manager of bulk assets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. They “are the folks that will feel the hit first and likely to be squeezed out of the game if prices continue to trend south”.
Xinying Yao, director of steel at SMM, a Shanghai-based metals data provider, said given the time between purchasing land to construction, it was difficult to see demand for steel from the property sector improving in the next 12 months.
“Many of the steel mills have to cut down production until the industry gets a tighter balance,” she said, warning: “We think there’s still space for the iron ore price to come down to $90 per tonne.”
What the Latest Presidential Polls Say and What They Might Be Missing
Nate Cohn, the New York Times’ chief political analyst, breaks down Kamala Harris’s performance in the battleground states and how we should think about polling error.
On Saturday, the New York Times and Siena College released their latest round of swing-state polling on the Presidential race. It showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by five points in Arizona and by two points in North Carolina, while trailing Trump by a point in Nevada and by four points in Georgia. (In 2020, Joe Biden edged out Trump in all of these states except North Carolina.) The cumulative results show a very slight Harris edge. Coupled with the previous set of Times/Siena polls—which had Harris leading Trump by four points across three battleground states in the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan)—the over-all picture of the race has transformed since President Biden stepped aside from contesting the Democratic nomination in July. Harris is narrowly ahead.
To talk about what it all means, I recently spoke by phone with Nate Cohn, the Times’ chief political analyst who also oversees the paper’s polling. (Full disclosure: Cohn and I worked together at The New Republic, and are friends.) During our conversation, which has been edited for length and clarity, we discussed the surprising ways in which Harris’s coalition appears to differ from Biden’s in 2020, how to think about the Sun Belt versus the Rust Belt, and the prospect of a third straight Presidential election with serious polling error.
You decided to do these polls in two rounds, one in the Rust Belt and then one in the Sun Belt. Why did you make that decision, and do you think it’s helpful for people who are following the election to separate those two areas in their minds?
Well, there’s one practical reason, which is that it is difficult for us to simultaneously and quickly field surveys in seven states. This is a really dynamic race, and so, if we had polled all seven of these simultaneously, we might’ve had to field over ten days, and I think there would’ve been some valid questions about whether the results that we had at the end were still reflective of the race as it is today.
There’s also a substantive reason, which is that the Sun Belt and Rust Belt states, if we can call them that, have been very different this cycle. The Northern battleground states are relatively white, and the polls this cycle have shown Democrats faring relatively well among white voters. As a consequence, even Joe Biden was fairly competitive there. The Sun Belt states, on the other hand, are relatively diverse, and the polls have shown Democrats faring relatively poorly among nonwhite voters this cycle. As a consequence, Donald Trump had a significant lead in the Sun Belt battleground states even as the Rust Belt states remained competitive. So I think there was a pretty good reason to be treating them separately, even beyond the practical reasons.
When you’re looking at these polls, either in the three Rust Belt states [Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan] or the four Sun Belt states [Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina], are you looking at the individual states very closely? Or are you grouping them together in your mind and averaging them out?
Both. Obviously individual states are idiosyncratic, and they can go in their own distinct ways. On the other hand, these two groups of states have a lot in common, and they voted fairly similarly four years ago, and, when we put them all together, we have a larger sample size. So those estimates can be more stable, while the individual states can bounce around. When you’re looking at a single poll, it can be a little challenging to figure out whether you’re looking at something that’s genuinely unique about that state or a thing that’s weird about a smaller sample.
If you take the four Sun Belt states together, you get Kamala Harris ahead by four-tenths of a point. That happens to be the exact result of the 2020 election across those four states. So I see a result that in some ways is profoundly unsurprising. It’s almost exactly what we would’ve guessed two years ago, but it also represents a huge change from earlier in the year when Trump had a large lead across these diverse states.
Now that you’ve been able to do several rounds of polls, what do you feel comfortable saying demographically about how this race is different from when Biden was running, but also compared to Biden in 2020?
In May, we had Trump ahead by five points across the battleground states. Right now, we have Harris ahead by two, so it’s a big seven-point swing. And we show outsized gains for Harris among young and nonwhite voters, and women, and we show smaller gains, but still some improvement, for Harris among men and white voters.
Now, what’s interesting is that, compared to 2020, Harris is still slightly underperforming where Biden finished among young, Black, and Hispanic voters, even though she’s doing better than he was three months ago. We have Harris doing a little bit better among white voters and older voters than Biden did in 2020. It’s possible that this just reflects a continuation of a longer-term trend during the last decade toward somewhat less racial polarization. It’s possible this will change as the campaign continues. Maybe some of the white working-class voters who have seen three weeks of great coverage for Harris, and particularly white working-class women, will eventually turn against her as the campaign goes on. It’s a really unique political moment.
Right, there have been so many headlines about Harris picking up support from young voters and Black voters and Hispanic voters, but that’s just compared to how Biden was doing with those groups in the polls. And it is pretty striking when you say that, compared to the actual result of the last Presidential election, she’s actually doing better among white and older voters and worse among all those other groups.
It’s definitely not what we would’ve guessed two or three years ago. If you told me that Harris, a Black and Indian younger woman, was not going to have any material advantage over Biden among Black and Hispanic voters in the 2020 election, that would’ve surprised me. I do think that we need to see this race settle out a bit before we can say why that’s true and whether it’s going to last. I really do think it’s conceivable that Harris is riding an extraordinary wave of momentum that inflates her numbers just a little bit among swing voters across the board, and that might come back to earth. And ultimately there may be some room for her to make additional gains among Black and Latino voters as the campaign goes on.
Your current poll has largish gaps between Arizona and Nevada and then also between North Carolina and Georgia. I think most people assume that those gaps will end up being pretty close on Election Day.
Well, I certainly share that expectation. Arizona and Nevada have a large Latino population. Georgia and North Carolina have large Black populations. So you would expect those two groups of states to move somewhat in tandem. But it’s worth noting that that’s not necessarily what has been happening over the last decade. Democrats have made big gains in Arizona and Georgia while they have made few gains in Nevada and North Carolina. So it is conceivable that these states can move independently. Still, I don’t think our polling should necessarily be taken as a definitive claim that North Carolina is now going to vote to the left of Georgia or Arizona will vote far to the left of Nevada, not by any stretch.
We have the most to say about Georgia and Arizona because we’ve done a lot of polls in those states by now. The previous times that we’ve polled Arizona and Georgia this cycle, they weren’t that much different from the battlegrounds as a whole. But in this poll both those states diverged from where they’ve been in our prior polling. Georgia is now well to the right of the other states. Arizona is now to the left. My instinct is that this is probably just a little bit of random noise. I think that if we polled those two states again tomorrow, there’s a pretty darn good chance we would find Arizona closer to even, and Georgia closer to even.
This is the first time we polled North Carolina this cycle, so we don’t have context to see where Times/Siena usually gets this state with respect to the others. And Nevada is weird for a different reason, which is that our polling to this point has shown Trump faring exceptionally well. I’ve talked to a lot of pollsters who have at prior points in this cycle shown Democrats faring better than we did, and I’ve also talked to some who showed Democrats faring just as bad as we showed them doing in Nevada. Nailing down exactly what’s going on in Nevada has been challenging.
To go back to what you said earlier about Harris still lagging a bit among Black voters, Georgia has a larger share of Black voters than North Carolina does, and so, if there’s been some Democratic slippage in one of those two states, you might expect to see it in Georgia.
That’s reasonable. I don’t think it covers the six-point gap that we find between North Carolina and Georgia. But if in November North Carolina actually does vote a little bit to the left of Georgia, I wouldn’t be surprised by that at all. And not simply because of that demographic argument you made but just because states are a little idiosyncratic and weird things happen. Four years ago, people didn’t expect Georgia was going to vote to the left of North Carolina. It did. We can go through all kinds of examples of cases where states move in ways that are just difficult to explain.
And North Carolina was to the left of Georgia in ’08, ’12, and ’16, I believe.
That’s right. And there are other cases like this. If you put us in a time machine and go back to 2014, I don’t know how you explain how Florida and Arizona have taken such divergent paths. It’s easy to say now, but demographically there’s no great explanation for why these two states full of Latino voters and retirees have turned in opposite directions.
Your poll and some other polls have shown an interesting gap in some of the swing-state Senate races. Basically, most of them show incumbent Democrats, or non-incumbent Democrats like Ruben Gallego, of Arizona, performing better than Harris is. Who are these voters who are going to vote for Trump and for the Democratic candidates for Senate? What can you tell us about that?
It’s a different story from state to state. If I could step out and make a broad statement, I would say that the Democratic candidates tend to fare a little bit better than Harris among white voters, and then they are achieving the usual Democratic strength among young and nonwhite voters. That is interesting to me because it suggests that some of the strength that Trump has built among young and nonwhite voters really does represent his own strength and not necessarily strength that carries over to other Republicans.
We need to wait a little longer to see all this stuff sort out. These Senate campaigns are not active. And we saw in 2022, you may recall, that Mark Kelly started out with a double-digit lead, and John Fetterman started out with a double-digit lead, and the Democrat in Wisconsin Mandela Barnes started out with a significant lead over Ron Johnson. This was before the campaigns really got under way and before the Republicans were able to run attack ads tying Democrats to liberal policies. And I’m not saying that’s what’s going to happen this time, but it is a reminder that these races break later than Presidential contests do.
My assumption has been that Trump would fare a little bit better among nonwhite voters than these generic Republican Senate candidates, and at the same time that some of the Republican Senate candidates would poll a little better with educated white voters than Trump does. But you’re saying there’s not some consistent story like that?
I wouldn’t say so, but that may be how it shakes out in November. I really do think that Senate races develop on a different time line. And, in some of these states, the Republican nominee was only decided recently.
Looking at polling data, it seems that the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote in 2024 is going to be quite a bit smaller than the more than four percentage points it was in 2020. Do you feel confident making any claims about this? There’s been so few good state polls that it’s just very hard to tell.
I think I felt pretty confident that the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote in a Biden-Trump matchup was poised to be much smaller than it was four years ago. That was supported by a full year’s worth of state polls, and it was supported by the basic demographic patterns that we saw in both national and state polls. The Harris-Trump matchup is obviously brand new. There isn’t a robust set of polling. We haven’t even done a Times/Siena national poll that shows Harris in the lead yet. I expect that if we did one, by the way, that we would find Harris in the lead, given how well she’s doing in the swing states, but we haven’t done one. So it’s really very early.
Although her relative strength with white voters for a Democrat augurs well because of the bias of the Electoral College, correct?
That is right. If I had to guess, I would certainly guess that Donald Trump’s Electoral College edge with respect to the popular vote is poised to shrink compared to 2020. How much? I think it’s way too soon to say anything more than that.
How are you feeling about polling error these days?
Oh, God.
I know that no pollster can put polling error out of their head. Obviously there was polling error in 2016 and in 2020, in which it favored Biden, which meant that Trump outperformed the polls. What are you looking for under the hood to detect possible error?
There’s no way to anticipate whether the polls are going to be right or wrong ahead of the election. In 2022, there were a lot of reasons to wonder whether the polls were going to be accurate. Our polling showed Democrats doing very well in many of the same states we’re talking about here, like Pennsylvania and Arizona. It was hard to know whether that was real or not. It was. Conversely, in 2020, we showed Democrats doing really well and we had every reason to think it was real at the time. It turned out not to be.
Looking back, you could point to a few signs that maybe indicated that the polls were poised to be off. One of those signs was that Democratic voters were much likelier to respond to polls in 2020 than Republican voters. And that’s based on their party registration, something that we know before we even place a telephone call to them. We use that to make sure we have the right number of Democrats and Republicans, but if more Democrats are responding to polls than Republicans, I think it raises the question about whether simply adjusting the number of Democrats and Republicans is enough. It may be that you’re getting too many hard-core Democrats while the Republicans you are getting include too many Never Trumpers, and so on. That’s certainly what happened in 2020.
So far this cycle, we don’t see that same pattern. The proportion of Democrats and Republicans who respond to our polls is roughly even. I think that’s a somewhat positive sign, but I find it hard to say that that rules out any systematic problem in the polls. It’s worth noting that non-response bias is not the only reason the polls could be wrong. Right now, Harris has had three exceptional weeks of media coverage. Even if you think our polls are too blue for her right now, that may simply be because voters right now haven’t heard the case against her, and, if the election were held tomorrow, maybe a bunch of Republican-leaning, white, working-class voters would shift from the answer they gave us in the survey.
But the non-response-bias question is, in terms of your own polls, the thing that you would look at the most closely just to scan for obvious error?
This is a complicated thing to get right. The thing that was so challenging about non-response bias in 2020 was that, even if a poll had the right number of registered Democrats and the right number of registered Republicans, even if it had the right number of college graduates or people without a college degree, even if it had the right number of old and young people, the right number of white and Black people, it still was wrong because, within every one of those demographic groups, there were too many people who backed Biden and not enough who backed Trump. That is a form of non-response bias that was basically unobserved. There was no indication in the numbers that we had too few Trump voters. By its nature, that is extremely difficult to diagnose in advance.
The reason I look at the response bias by party is because if we stipulate that there are too many Biden voters responding to polls, I wonder whether that ought to increase the response rate among registered Democrats, as most registered Democrats will vote for Biden. And that therefore, if you have a hugely lopsided propensity for Democrats to respond compared to Republicans, what actually could be happening is that Biden voters, regardless of party, are too likely to respond to surveys. And because we can’t control the number of Biden voters in our poll, we might still be prone to have an inaccurate survey result, even if we have the right number of Democrats and Republicans.
Having established that context, the data that we’re looking at is the proportion of Democrats and Republicans who respond to polls, and in 2020 it was lopsided toward Democrats. This time it’s fairly even—so I’m cautiously optimistic that this means that we don’t have a deep, hidden non-response bias. It’s hard to imagine how Biden or Harris voters can be responding in extraordinary numbers compared to Trump voters but not driving the Democratic response rate up compared to the Republican response rate.
I will say that when I saw in your current poll that the state that was the best for Trump was Georgia, which I believe had almost no polling error last time, I did wince a tiny bit.
Yeah, it’s a fair point. It’s funny because in a lot of ways, compared to our other polls, it looks like the outlier. And so you might be inclined to assume that that’s the one that’s wrong and that our other polls are right. But you’re absolutely right that it could ultimately work the other way.
Belarus Says Ukraine Amassing Troops At Border; Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Suffers Drone Attack
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has warned Sunday that Ukraine is also amassing troops on Belarus' border amid the ongoing incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast. Lukashenko alleged that Kiev has positioned more than 120,000 soldiers along its border with Belarus and this is being deemed an act of 'aggression' by military authorities. But it is curious where Ukraine got the manpower for this, if accurate.
State-run BelTA quoted Lukashenko as saying, "Seeing their aggressive policy, we have introduced there and placed in certain points – in case of war, they would be defense – our military along the entire border."
Thus he made it clear that Belarusian forces could counter-attack into Ukraine if Minsk observes any Ukrainian incursion on its sovereign territory.
These extreme border tensions are nothing new, given Belarus has long been a logistics hub and staging ground for Russia's Ukraine operations; however, the whole Kursk shock cross-border operation has certainly upped the ante.
While these constitute serious threats from Lukashenko, it is as yet unclear how many regular army troops have been sent to bolster the state security services' some 12,000 border guards already typically deployed.
Meanwhile, Russia has launched another ballistic missile attack on Kiev in retaliation for the Kursk invasion. This one was an early morning Sunday assault, with the Kyiv City Military Administration stating on Telegram: "This is the third ballistic missile attack on the capital in August with a clear interval of six days between each attack." Drones were also sent, with Ukraine's military saying it intercepted all of them.
Also, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has issued new warnings and concerns over the situation at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which since early in the war has been occupied by Russian troops and authorities. The IAEA warned the safety of the complex is "deteriorating" following a nearby weekend drone strike. The IAEA further—
...warned on Saturday of an escalation in the security dangers at the plant, reporting "intense" military activity over the past week in the area, including very close to the plant.
...IAEA experts on site reported that the damage "seemed to have been caused by a drone equipped with an explosive payload", affecting the road between the plant’s two main gates.
It seems the Ukrainians are attempting to stage a provocation in a desperate act following accusations from President Zelensky last week that the Russians set fire to the plant.
Fighting inside Kursk is still intense, with Ukraine forces have destroyed a second key bridge, which strongly suggests they plan to seek to hold territory for significantly longer. The Associated Press details on Sunday:
Ukraine has destroyed a key bridge in Russia’s Kursk region and struck a second one nearby, less than two weeks into its stunning cross-border incursion, disrupting Russian supply routes and possibly signaling that its troops are planning to dig in.
Russia’s pro-Kremlin military bloggers have acknowledged that the destruction of the first bridge, which spanned the Seim River near the town of Glushkovo, will impede deliveries of supplies to Russian forces repelling Ukraine’s incursion, although Moscow could still use pontoons and smaller bridges in the area. Ukraine’s air force chief, Lt. Mykola Oleshchuk, on Friday released a video of a Ukrainian airstrike that split the bridge in two.
Less than two days later, Ukrainian troops hit a second bridge in Russia, according to Oleshchuk and the Russian regional governor, Alexei Smirnov.
Still, Russian defense ministry statements continue to try and paint a positive picture, with a top ranking Commander Major General Apty Alaudinov telling TASS on Sunday "Our situation is completely under control."
"The enemy is trying to break through into our territory around the clock. All these attempts end with the elimination of the enemy and the burning of the equipment. That is why we are destroying the enemy's reserves," he told TASS.
Sam Altman Is Battling With Governments Over Your Eyes
More than a dozen jurisdictions have either suspended his Worldcoin project’s operations or looked into its data processing
Sam Altman wants to save us from the AI-dominated world he is building. The trouble is, governments aren’t buying his plan, which involves an attempt to scan the eyeballs of every person on Earth and pay them with his own cryptocurrency.
Altman’s OpenAI is creating models that may end up outsmarting humans. His Worldcoin initiative says it is addressing a key risk that could follow: We won’t be able to tell people and robots apart.
But Worldcoin has come under assault by authorities over its mission. It has been raided in Hong Kong, blocked in Spain, fined in Argentina and criminally investigated in Kenya. A ruling looms on whether it can keep operating in the European Union.
More than a dozen jurisdictions have either suspended Worldcoin’s operations or looked into its data processing. Among their concerns: How does the Cayman Islands-registered Worldcoin Foundation handle user data, train its algorithms and avoid scanning children?
Altman, the billionaire figurehead of the artificial-intelligence revolution, has tried to push back and open doors for Worldcoin. The project is a lesser-known part of the OpenAI chief executive’s sprawling business empire, but it plays a vital role in his vision for society’s future, by attempting to ascribe all humans a unique signature.
Worldcoin verifies “humanness” by scanning irises using a basketball-sized chrome device called the Orb. Worldcoin says irises, which are complex and relatively unchanging in adults, can better distinguish humans than fingerprints or faces.
Users receive immutable codes held in an online “World ID” passport, to use on other platforms to prove they are human, plus payouts in Worldcoin’s WLD cryptocurrency.
Worldcoin launched last year and says it has verified more than six million people across almost 40 countries. Based on recent trading prices, the total pool of WLD is theoretically worth some $15 billion.
The project says its technology is completely private: Orbs delete all images after verification, and iris codes contain no personal information—unless users permit Worldcoin to train its algorithms with their scans. Encrypted servers hold the anonymized codes and images.
However, several authorities have accused Worldcoin of telling Orb operators, typically independent contractors, to encourage users to hand over iris images. Privacy advocates say these could be used to build a global biometric database with little oversight.
Damien Kieran, the project’s chief privacy officer, said any groundbreaking venture like Worldcoin inevitably draws scrutiny, and the initiative was working with regulators to address concerns.
The project has paused the image-sharing option for users while it develops a new process, he said, and is continually improving its ability to keep people secure. Current training materials don’t ask operators in any way to induce users to share biometric data, he said.
“We’ve built a technology that by default is privacy-enhancing,” Kieran said in an interview. “We don’t collect data to harvest it. We don’t sell data. In fact, we couldn’t sell it, because we don’t know who the data belongs to.”
‘Very advanced and novel technology’
In 2019, Altman conceived the idea of building a technology that could eventually distribute a form of universal basic income to everyone on Earth whose livelihoods would be disrupted by AI.
“I started thinking that it would be quite powerful if you could have the biggest financial and identity network imaginable,” Altman told a podcast last year. He didn’t comment for this article.
The following year, Altman tapped a 26-year-old German called Alex Blania, a former California Institute of Technology researcher.
The founders set up a U.S. company, Tools for Humanity, to build the technology, with Blania as CEO. Blania based much of his team in the Bavarian city of Erlangen, where he had previously studied theoretical physics. A nonprofit Cayman foundation, meanwhile, manages the data, tokens and intellectual property.
The project drew controversy soon after becoming public.
Unlike many Silicon Valley startups that first expand across the U.S., Worldcoin was global almost from the get-go, racking up users in less-developed markets like Indonesia, Kenya and Nigeria, and throughout Europe. It hasn’t offered WLD coins in the U.S., citing an uncertain regulatory environment.
Critics charged Worldcoin with targeting less technically literate places. “It’s taking advantage of people’s lack of sophistication to train very advanced and novel technology,” said Calli Schroeder, a senior counsel at the Electronic Privacy Information Center, a Washington-based nonprofit.
Worldcoin says it wanted to test how the Orbs handled different climates and geographies, from dense cities to sparse developing areas.
In Kenya, Altman’s project secured half a million sign-ups within three months of its public launch, but quickly ran into trouble.
Police launched a criminal investigation into the collection of biometric data, interrogating local managers and agents, seizing Orbs in a warehouse raid and summoning foreign representatives through Interpol. Kenya’s parliament held a public inquiry, with Blania jetting in to testify. He and Altman also met Kenya’s president, William Ruto, last year in California.
The parliamentary report said that Kenya’s data commissioner had repeatedly told Worldcoin to stop collecting personal data, citing doubts about user consent, and that a May 2023 cease order wasn’t shared with Orb operators.
After the order, Tools for Humanity addressed the commissioner’s concerns in written replies, describing improved operator training, but kept scanning Kenyans.
Lawmaker Gitonga Mukunji, who initiated the inquiry, compared Worldcoin’s use of “small enticements” to OpenAI, which has relied on low-paid Kenyan workers to train chatbots to avoid toxic content. “These companies pay our population peanuts, and the technology then makes them rich,” Mukunji said in an interview.
The Kenyan public prosecutor’s office closed the criminal case in June, recommending Worldcoin properly register with authorities in future. Tools for Humanity said it would continue to work with Kenya’s government and hoped to resume operations there soon.
Other setbacks followed.
Hong Kong banned Worldcoin, finding it was retaining iris images for up to a decade. Argentine authorities launched investigations, citing a lack of information and what they said were abusive user terms. Spain accused Worldcoin of scanning children at a large scale, while Portugal said Worldcoin taught operators to encourage people to consent to their data’s use.
Authorities in Bavaria, where the foundation has a data-processing subsidiary, have led an EU inquiry into Worldcoin and expect to issue a decision as soon as next month.
The head of the German state’s data regulator, Michael Will, said his team has focused on ensuring iris codes and images are secure, given that biometric data can’t be altered and any breach could lead to identity fraud.
“Once somebody has your specific iris picture, you will never have the possibility to stay anonymous,” Will said.
In response to regulators’ actions, Worldcoin has countered with a global charm offensive and rolled out new measures.
The project’s head of global affairs told Forbes Argentina it had “injected hundreds of millions of dollars into the economy.” Altman, Blania and colleagues then met with Argentine President Javier Milei as he toured Silicon Valley. Worldcoin said it would make Argentina a regional hub, hiring local staff and opening new sites.
Worldcoin operators now check identity cards to deter minors, and the project lets users permanently delete iris codes, a key requirement of EU data-protection rules. A new system breaks up iris codes, with segments held on separate encrypted data stores. Only someone with access to all the servers, and the combination keys, could piece the codes back together, according to Kieran, the privacy chief.
He said the goal is to reach a point where “we couldn’t even get to this data if we wanted to.”
Countering ‘the greatest risk of AI’
Altman has little day-to-day involvement in Worldcoin, executives say. But people familiar with the matter say he holds equity in Tools for Humanity, which also puts him in line to receive WLD tokens.
Worldcoin has racked up other heavyweight backers, raising $240 million from investors including Andreessen Horowitz and Khosla Ventures, according to PitchBook.
Blania has said Worldcoin’s mission is even more urgent given AI is already reshaping the internet, with bots and fake accounts proliferating on social media. Blania says the problems will intensify if AI models emerge with human-level cognition.
“The greatest risk of AI is that it renders the internet an untrustworthy place,” said Lasha Antadze, co-founder of Rarilabs, a U.S. startup that anonymously verifies online identities by scanning passports. Rarilabs has integrated Worldcoin with its system.
One challenge for Worldcoin: Much of its success hangs on its cryptocurrency.
Worldcoin is gradually unlocking tokens allocated for user “grants,” along with the quarter of the total assigned to investors and team members. So far, the foundation still controls 97% of WLD, meaning the price is set by a small pool of currency in circulation. If WLD prices drop, there is less incentive to sign up, because it reduces the dollar value of payouts to users.
WLD is actively traded. But in chat groups where holders gather, the focus centers on using the token to bet on Altman’s other ventures: Its price almost quadrupled just after the February release of OpenAI’s Sora video tool, for instance.
Worldcoin executives say users also make real-world payments with WLD. They point to a Kenyan who said he bought a goat with the tokens and named it Sam.
Álvaro, a drone pilot in the Spanish port of Cádiz, got scanned last year and has received 120 WLD tokens since then. The 34-year-old, who declined to give his surname, said he didn’t fret about Worldcoin’s use of biometrics, reasoning he already handed over similar data to other companies.
“I believe in Sam,” he said, “so I’m holding for the really long term.”
Asset managers and rating agencies brace for next round of SEC texting fines
The regulator’s sprawling probe has already raked in more than $2bn in penalties
Asset managers and rating agencies are preparing for possible fines and sanctions as the Securities and Exchange Commission expands its probe into employees texting about company business on personal devices and other unofficial channels.
Since 2021, the US financial regulator has amassed about $2bn in civil penalties from dozens of Wall Street companies to settle charges that employees have used their own cell phones and apps like WhatsApp to discuss work matters, while failing to preserve records of those conversations.
The SEC on Wednesday levied nearly $400mn in fines in the latest batch of settlements with 26 Wall Street firms.
The years-long probe, which started with investment bankers, is not finished yet: BlackRock, Blackstone, Invesco and Moody’s all have disclosed that they were contacted in relation to the SEC’s texting investigation.
Some already have set aside tens of millions of dollars to cover expected penalties, according to a review of recent regulatory filings.
While regulatory staff have pushed on with their enforcement effort — fuelled by concerns that poor record-keeping could imperil other investigations — investment industry advocates have grown increasingly worried about paying high fines to a regulator they feel is overstepping its bounds.
“Our concern with expanding the scope of this investigation and these examinations to cover asset managers is that the SEC may be broadly going over what is actually required,” said Ken Fang, associate general counsel at the Investment Company Institute.
Under chair Gary Gensler the SEC has pushed to pursue misconduct with “a clear emphasis on pursuing creative theories of enforcement,” said David Oliwenstein, a former SEC enforcement attorney and partner with the Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman law firm.
“There’s obviously a statutory hook for it, but it’s not an area that’s been pursued historically,” Oliwenstein said. “I think the SEC staff believe they have a lot of leverage here.”
Invesco has set aside $50mn in connection with the SEC’s investigation plus “a separate regulatory matter,” according to a recent filing.
Charles Schwab in a filing said it incurred a $43mn charge related to both the texting probe and an unrelated matter, and BlackRock also has disclosed that it is co-operating with the SEC in connection with the texting investigation.
Moody’s said in a filing it had reached a settlement agreement in principle with the SEC’s enforcement division, noting that this deal would likely include a $20mn civil penalty, and S&P Global Ratings disclosed it was in “advanced discussions” with SEC staff over the electronic messaging probe.
The SEC previously settled with DBRS and Kroll Bond Ratings Agency, which agreed to pay smaller fines.
Private equity firms including Blackstone and Apollo Global also have previously disclosed that they have set aside funds for their “estimated liability” in recent regulatory disclosures, although they did not specify the precise amounts they expect to be fined as the SEC’s investigation expands.
The ICI’s Fang said that asset managers are “generally risk-averse” and prefer avoiding litigation when possible.
“It’s easier for those firms to settle, to take the hit of the penalty as a cost of doing business, and then just move forward,” Fang said.
The SEC declined to comment. In a statement accompanying the earlier settlements this week it reiterated its concern that when companies fail to preserve relevant records, subsequent investigations can be hampered to the detriment of investors.
US LNG industry under pressure as challenges and uncertainty mount
The drive to replace Russian gas has led to surging global demand but American export projects face growing hurdles
The US liquefied natural gas industry faces mounting challenges as legal clashes with activists and contractors combine with a federal permitting freeze to slow the expansion of the world’s biggest exporter.
Two multibillion-dollar terminals under construction on the Texas Gulf Coast backed by supermajors ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies suffered fresh setbacks this month, which are expected to lead to delays.
This has added to uncertainty over future supply growth created by the Joe Biden administration’s pause on new export permits and underlined the complexity of getting LNG megaprojects off the ground.
“LNG plants are energy infrastructure — and building energy infrastructure in America today is hard,” said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners.
The US LNG industry has boomed in recent years amid surging demand from abroad, especially as Europe seeks to wean itself off reliance on Russian gas in the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The US overtook Australia in 2023 to become the world’s biggest exporter, shipping 11.9bn cubic feet a day of LNG — enough to satisfy the combined gas needs of Germany and France — and industry has ambitious plans to double exports by the end of the decade.
But despite the thirst for US molecules, the challenges in bringing new terminals online costing tens of billions of dollars are increasing.
ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy this month pushed back the start of their $11bn Golden Pass project in Texas by six months to the end of next year after a clash with lead contractor Zachry Holdings over ballooning costs at the project. Zachry filed for bankruptcy protection in May.
A settlement reached with Zachry in recent weeks has allowed the owners to bring in a new lead contractor and push ahead with construction. Exxon finance chief Kathy Mikells welcomed the settlement, telling the Financial Times it would allow the company to “move forward to complete the project”.
NextDecade’s $18bn Rio Grande project was also dealt a blow this month after a court threw out a key regulatory approval following a legal challenge by environmental and community groups.
The company — which is 17 per cent owned by France’s TotalEnergies — vowed to take “all available legal and regulatory actions” to ensure the first phase of the project, due online in 2027, would be completed on time and that its latter stages would not be “unduly delayed”. NextDecade shares have slid about 40 per cent since the ruling.
“This decision has far-reaching implications beyond this project,” Matt Schatzman, NextDecade’s chief executive, said in a statement to the FT.
“If the ruling stands, the precedent that would be set by the court’s action has the potential to impact the viability of all federally permitted infrastructure projects because it will be difficult for these projects to attract capital investments until they receive final unappealable permits.”
When fully operational, the combined export capacity of the Golden Pass and Rio Grande facilities is set to reach as much as 5.9bn cubic feet per day, almost half of the volume shipped by the US last year.
Delays in bringing US projects online threaten to further squeeze an already tight market and push up prices. The Golden Pass delay will remove 2.3mn tonnes of supply from the market next year and 5.2mn in 2026, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The recent setbacks add to the travails of an industry whose rapid expansion since its establishment in 2016 hit a roadblock this year after the Biden administration in January halted new export permits for terminals as the Department of Energy carries out a review of the benefits.
There has been a marked slowdown in developments being greenlit since. Last year, three projects with a record combined capacity 37.5mn tonnes a year reached the crucial final investment decision stage, according to Wood Mackenzie. This year no projects have done so.
Though the Biden moratorium was blocked by a federal judge last month, no new permits have been issued since and industry players do not expect any change before the November presidential election.
“Developers and LNG buyers are waiting from clarification from courts and the US election to remove uncertainty,” said Mark Bononi, an analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
The energy department review is expected to be completed by March 2025. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has said he would begin issuing permits immediately if reelected. Analysts expect Democratic candidate Kamala Harris would also quickly end the freeze.
But Harris will face strong pushback from environmental groups and local activists over any move to speed up permitting for an industry they argue has destroyed coastal ecosystems and harmed local communities.
The Carrizo/Comecrudo tribe of Texas, which was among the plaintiffs in the case against NextDecade, said the project had ridden roughshod over sacred lands and vowed to continue to staunchly oppose it. “We will fight until our last penny,” Juan Mancias, tribal chair, told the FT.
The uncertainty in the US has caused some buyers to look abroad in a move industry players warn could derail some projects completely as anchor customers seek out contracts with clearer timeframes.
“It’s not good for these projects to be in limbo for a long time,” said Jason Bennett at law firm Baker Botts. “Buyers are always going to purchase LNG and are looking to buy in a particular time period.”
Les Dassault, la succession des mauvais sentiments
« Successions saison III » (1/6). C’est l’histoire d’une famille où les pères sont durs avec leurs fils, jusqu’au mépris, que ce soit dans la vie privée ou dans la gestion du groupe médiatico-militaro-industriel, créé par Marcel Dassault en 1929. Et d’une troisième génération dévorée par les dissensions.
Le vent souffle violemment depuis plusieurs jours, mais le ciel est clair sur Deauville (Calvados), ce 7 mars 2021. La veille, lorsque Olivier Dassault est arrivé vers 18 h 30, à bord de son hélicoptère personnel, un Airbus AS350-B qu’il apprend à piloter avec un vieux copain aguerri, le soleil se couchait tout juste. Des curieux ont regardé l’appareil se poser presque à la verticale, un peu trop près d’un bouquet d’arbres. Au moment de repartir, il est toujours stationné là, dans la propriété d’un ami, à Touques (Calvados), sur les hauteurs de la cité balnéaire. A moins d’un mètre d’un grand frêne.
L’aîné des héritiers Dassault adore se déplacer à bord de ses propres avions. A 69 ans, c’est sa façon à lui d’incarner sa prestigieuse ascendance, à défaut d’avoir pris les commandes du fleuron de l’industrie aéronautique française créé par son grand-père Marcel Dassault en 1929. Lorsqu’il arrive au Salon du Bourget, avec son blouson, ses lunettes fumées d’aviateur et ce nom, Dassault, qui charrie sa propre légende, il peut avoir l’illusion d’être un peu le patron. Et oublier ce que son père polytechnicien, Serge Dassault, lui a répété presque toute sa jeunesse : « Tu n’es pas un grand ingénieur puisque tu n’as pas fait l’X. »
Pour avoir le plaisir de prendre les commandes d’appareils produits par Dassault Aviation, Olivier Dassault a dû vaincre un tenace mal de l’air qui l’a longtemps saisi au premier trou d’air. A 24 ans, alors qu’il terminait sa formation d’ingénieur et d’officier pilote de l’Ecole de l’air, son instructeur, qui le voyait verdir dès le décollage, lui avait lancé en guise de consolation : « Eh bien… vous ferez un bon réserviste… » Dix fois, l’héritier a raconté comment il avait alors montré sa barrette, sur sa poitrine : « Vous n’avez pas vu le nom qui est inscrit là ? Je serai pilote ! »
Début 2021, il ne manque que quelques heures de conduite en double commande à ce dandy touche-à-tout pour ajouter la licence de pilote d’hélicoptère à celles qu’il possède déjà sur différents types d’appareils. Et enrichir de ce talent supplémentaire la longue liste qu’il a lui-même rédigée sur son blog : « Homme politique, entrepreneur, il est aussi un pilote chevronné, un photographe prisé et un compositeur reconnu »…
L’aîné des enfants Dassault n’a pas prévu de s’éterniser en Normandie ce 7 mars. Depuis que son père est mort, trois ans plus tôt, d’une crise cardiaque qui l’a terrassé à son bureau du Rond-Point des Champs-Elysées, à l’âge de 93 ans, il pourrait pourtant se sentir libre d’occuper son temps comme il le veut. A vrai dire, il a toujours mené la vie privilégiée des héritiers fortunés : bureaux somptueux, voitures de sport, chasse en Sologne, musique et photographie en guise de passe-temps. Mais du vivant de Serge Dassault, il se surprenait à mentir, comme ses deux frères, Laurent et Thierry, et leur sœur, Marie-Hélène, pour cacher un week-end au soleil, afin d’éviter d’entendre son père persifler : « Tu ne travailles donc pas ? »
En cette fin d’hiver 2021, l’atmosphère à Deauville est cependant un peu trop morne à son goût. L’épidémie de Covid-19 connaît une reprise, les restaurants n’ont pas rouvert et Olivier Dassault a décidé de repartir vingt-quatre heures après son arrivée, avant la tombée de la nuit. D’autres obligations l’attendent. Elu, depuis 1988, député dans la première circonscription de l’Oise – celle de son grand-père Marcel –, il a l’habitude de faire la tournée des associations et des marchés pour saluer ses électrices le 8 mars, Journée internationale des droits des femmes.
Chaque année, son épouse l’accompagne. Cela fait douze ans que ce séducteur invétéré s’est remarié avec Natacha Nikolajevic, une ancienne conseillère en communication et marketing, rencontrée en 2003 lors d’une vente aux enchères chez Artcurial, dont le groupe Dassault est l’un des principaux actionnaires. Il avait déjà deux enfants d’un premier mariage, Helena et Rémi. Ensemble, ils ont eu un garçon, Thomas, né en 2011. Chaleureuse et gaie, sa seconde épouse a rapidement compris les douleurs intimes de cette famille où personne ne manifeste jamais un quelconque geste de tendresse, offrant le spectacle de relations froides et pleines de non-dits. « Vous devriez lui dire que vous l’aimez », a-t-elle glissé un jour à son beau-père, en désignant son mari. L’intéressé a-t-il deviné qu’elle était à l’origine de ce mot gentil lâché enfin, quelque temps avant sa mort, par Serge à son fils Olivier ?
Les petits pieds de son mari
Ce samedi, donc, l’aîné des héritiers Dassault a déposé un plan de vol pour repartir le lendemain avec Natacha et le jeune Thomas dans l’Oise. Mais maintenant que l’heure du retour approche, il lâche à sa femme : « Exceptionnellement, je te dispense de l’Oise. » Et Thomas ? « Tu as dit qu’on ne montait jamais l’un sans l’autre dans l’hélico ! », chouine le gamin devant sa mère. C’est décidé, Natacha et leur fils rentreront à Paris en voiture pendant qu’Olivier rejoindra l’Oise. « Il est parti la fleur au fusil, avec son copain pilote… », se souvient-elle. La suite est figée dans sa mémoire, mais aussi dans le rapport minutieux du Bureau d’enquêtes et d’analyses pour la sécurité de l’aviation civile (BEA).
Olivier Dassault a quitté la maison de Deauville pour rejoindre Touques depuis à peine trente minutes quand le nom de son assistant s’affiche sur le téléphone de sa femme. « Olivier a été éjecté de l’hélico ! », annonce l’homme d’une voix blanche. L’épouse saute dans sa voiture et roule à fond de train jusqu’à la propriété où était stationné l’hélicoptère. Les gendarmes sont déjà là. Se fiant au plan de vol déposé la veille, ils cherchent une femme et un enfant dans les débris fumants et les taillis environnants. Impossible d’approcher : « Il y a du kérosène partout, cela pourrait s’enflammer. » De loin, Natacha Dassault reconnaît les petits pieds de son mari – il chausse du 39 – et comprend l’inéluctable. Le pire, confie-t-elle aujourd’hui, c’est le sentiment terrible qui la déchire alors, « entre la douleur infinie qu’il soit mort et le soulagement immense que Thomas ne soit pas monté avec lui… ».
Que s’est-il passé ? A 17 h 43, décrit l’enquête du BEA, « lors du décollage vertical de l’appareil, à une hauteur d’environ 19 mètres, le rotor de l’hélicoptère a heurté les branches du grand frêne de 23 mètres de hauteur près duquel il s’était posé la veille ». L’appareil s’est littéralement délité, la queue s’est détachée, les glissières et le plancher de la cabine ont été arrachés et cette dernière est tombée jusqu’au sol en tournant sur elle-même. Les enquêteurs ne peuvent certifier qui pilotait alors, mais les résultats de l’autopsie montrent que « les lésions internes subies par des deux personnes à bord ne laissaient aucune possibilité de survie ».
Les obsèques d’Olivier Dassault sont célébrées le 12 mars, au sein de la cathédrale Saint-Pierre de Beauvais, chef-lieu de la circonscription de l’élu. De nombreux politiques de droite comme de gauche sont présents, par exemple Jean-Luc Mélenchon, qui prend la veuve dans ses bras et lui glisse : « C’est le seul mec de droite que j’aimais. » A l’issue de la cérémonie, deux avions de chasse de l’armée de l’air survolent le parvis de l’église en hommage autant à la famille Dassault qu’au pilote Olivier.
Poison de la division
Le monde des affaires ne tarde pas à se demander comment la famille va gérer la disparition de l’aîné. Car Dassault est l’un des groupes les plus puissants et les plus stratégiques pour la France. Présent dans la conception et la fabrication d’avions militaires et civils ainsi que de systèmes spatiaux (Dassault Aviation, 12 400 collaborateurs et 7,2 milliards de chiffre d’affaires), dans la conception de logiciels de haut niveau (Dassault Systèmes, 20 496 collaborateurs, 4,86 milliards de chiffre d’affaires), il l’est aussi dans les médias, avec son fleuron Le Figaro, l’immobilier, l’art, avec Artcurial, et le vin. Savoir par qui le conglomérat sera dirigé est crucial.
Si Olivier a toujours été le plus connu des héritiers de Serge Dassault, il y a derrière lui deux frères, Laurent et Thierry, ainsi qu’une sœur, Marie-Hélène. Il y a aussi treize petits-enfants, à qui leur grand-père a transmis dès la fin des années 1990 la quasi-totalité du capital du groupe médiatico-militaro-industriel. A eux tous, ils détiennent la sixième fortune française, selon le classement du magazine Challenges de 2024, avec un patrimoine évalué à 26,16 milliards d’euros. La direction opérationnelle du groupe est, elle, entre de solides mains que le patriarche avait pris soin de choisir hors de la famille : celles de Charles Edelstenne, longtemps considéré comme le « double » de Serge Dassault.
Le fils aîné avait néanmoins une place à part au sein de la fratrie. Il ne s’installait pas seulement dans le fauteuil de son défunt père lors des déjeuners de famille. Il était aussi le véritable président au conseil de surveillance de la holding familiale, même lorsque la troisième génération Dassault avait organisé en son sein une présidence tournante. Lui seul pouvait ramener un peu de concorde entre Laurent, Thierry, Marie-Hélène et le conjoint de cette dernière, Benoît Habert. Car il n’est un secret pour personne que le poison de la division s’est installé au sein de la famille actionnaire depuis des décennies…
« Les Dassault, c’est la succession des mauvais sentiments », résume un connaisseur de la dynastie. Pour comprendre ce qu’il veut dire, il faut remonter au père fondateur, Marcel Dassault, que tous vénèrent. Ce formidable concepteur d’avions incarne une histoire à la fois héroïque et tragique. Né en 1892 à Neuilly-sur-Seine (Hauts-de-Seine) au sein d’une famille juive, Marcel Bloch est le dernier de quatre enfants. C’est un élève brillant, entré à l’Ecole supérieure d’aéronautique et de construction mécanique (Supaéro) dont il sort diplômé un an avant la première guerre mondiale. Pendant la Grande Guerre, il se lance, avec son camarade Henry Potez, dans la conception d’une hélice puis d’un avion complet destiné à l’armée française. Onze ans après la fin de la guerre, il monte sa propre entreprise, la Société des avions Marcel-Bloch, qui a produit plusieurs bombardiers bimoteurs pour l’Etat et que la course à l’armement des années 1930 va rendre très rentable.
Dans cette époque où le fascisme et le nazisme prospèrent, ce chef d’entreprise juif est sans cesse pris pour cible par les journaux d’extrême droite. Dès 1940, son frère Darius Paul Bloch rejoint Charles de Gaulle à Londres après son appel du 18 juin. Marcel, lui, rallie la villa qu’il possède à Cannes, en zone libre, avec femme et enfants, mais il est arrêté dès octobre. Après de multiples épisodes, il sera déporté au camp de concentration de Buchenwald. A la Libération, âgé de 53 ans, il fait figure de véritable miraculé.
Conversion au catholicisme
La guerre lui a fait prendre des résolutions importantes pour sa famille. Sur les quatre fils Bloch, Darius Paul est devenu général après sa résistance courageuse, mais René, qui était chirurgien des hôpitaux de Paris, est mort à Auschwitz. Lui-même sait bien à quoi il a réchappé. Il décide donc de renoncer à la fois à son patronyme et au judaïsme. Dans la Résistance, le nom de code utilisé par son frère Darius Paul était « Chardasso » (tiré de « char d’assaut »). En 1946, Marcel fait changer son patronyme en Bloch-Dassault, puis en Dassault tout court, dès 1949. L’année suivante, il se convertit au catholicisme.
En 1951, il propose à son fils Serge d’entrer dans la société d’aéronautique qu’il a créée et dirige toujours d’une main de fer. Cela devrait être une chance pour le père et le fils, autant que pour l’entreprise : Serge Dassault, après être sorti bien classé de l’Ecole polytechnique, a choisi Supaéro. Il a le goût de la technique, des capacités de haut niveau en mathématiques et en physique et ce souci de l’esthétique en matière d’aérodynamisme que chérit tant son père, qui professe que « chaque fois qu’un avion est beau, il vole bien ».
Cependant, il n’échappe à personne que Marcel Dassault tient son fils à distance. C’est qu’un drame personnel pèse sur la famille. L’aîné, Claude, né en 1920, est atteint d’autisme sévère. Est-ce la douleur constante de voir les insuffisances de Claude qui le fait mépriser ce cadet dont la naissance, cinq ans plus tard, n’a rien guéri ? L’industriel n’est pas du genre à partager son autorité. Ni à établir la moindre complicité avec son fils. Lorsqu’il lui écrit, il commence ses lettres par « Monsieur », comme s’il s’adressait à un étranger. Serge Dassault est pourtant une bonne recrue. Au début des années 1960, il a largement contribué à la création du Mystère 20, qui ouvrira la voie à l’aviation d’affaires et arrondira largement la fortune de l’entreprise. Mais il n’a pas voix au chapitre. Pis, son père ne perd jamais une occasion de le traîner plus bas que terre en public. « Il ne m’a jamais dit qu’il était fier de moi, n’a jamais été prolixe en compliments », confiera Serge Dassault à Mireille Dumas dans une interview télévisée, en 2011, sur France 3.
Avec les années, les relations entre Marcel et Serge Dassault ne se sont pas arrangées et elles ont pris une tournure plus cruelle encore lorsque Serge a lui-même eu des enfants. « Coco » – c’est ainsi que ses petits-enfants appellent Marcel – adore Olivier plus qu’il n’a jamais aimé son propre fils. Il répète sans cesse qu’il laissera à l’aîné de ses petits-fils la présidence de son groupe, alors qu’il n’a jamais rien dit de semblable au sujet de son propre fils. Il s’applique même à saboter son rôle de père et à prendre sa place auprès d’Olivier. Quand ce dernier a voulu monter une petite société de publicité, il a laissé une ardoise conséquente que son grand-père s’est empressé d’éponger, alors que son père voulait le laisser se débrouiller par lui-même. C’est aussi Marcel qui offre à son petit-fils adoré les voitures de sport que Serge lui refuse. En somme, personne n’est vraiment à sa place dans cette lignée d’hommes.
« Serge est véritablement né à 60 ans, quand son père a disparu », résument parfois les héritiers Dassault. Rien n’est plus vrai. La mort de Marcel Dassault, le 17 avril 1986, donne lieu à un hommage exceptionnel aux Invalides de la part du premier ministre d’alors, Jacques Chirac. Marcel Dassault n’a pourtant rien prévu pour sa succession. C’est au conseil d’administration de décider. Serge Dassault est finalement élu à une voix près PDG du groupe, à un âge où les ouvriers de ses usines sont déjà à la retraite…
Il est difficile pour un homme qui n’a pas été aimé de témoigner de l’amour à ses propres enfants. Dans un infernal processus de répétition, Serge Dassault se comporte à son tour en autocrate avec sa descendance, méprisant ouvertement ses enfants comme son père le faisait autrefois. Tous ceux qui fréquentent alors la famille se souviennent, mal à l’aise, des humiliations infligées à ses enfants. « Un jour, alors que je venais voir Serge dans son bureau, je me retrouve avec son cadet Laurent qui attendait sagement son tour, raconte un proche de la famille. Je lui ai dit : “Votre fils d’abord !” Il m’a répondu aussitôt : “Il peut bien attendre encore !” » Olivier n’a pas droit à plus d’égards. Au printemps 2004, alors qu’il est censé être chargé du pôle presse du groupe (qui gère notamment Valeurs actuelles et Spectacles du monde), il est convoqué par son père pour une annonce surprise : « Nous avons racheté Le Figaro ! » Il n’avait pas pris la peine de lui en parler avant.
Jalousie paternelle
Comment expliquer, sinon par la jalousie, la façon dont le patriarche observe la carrière politique de son fils Olivier ? Pendant des années, Serge Dassault a essayé de s’installer durablement comme élu dans l’Oise. Battu plusieurs fois, souvent en ballottage, il a parfois « assuré » son élection en distribuant des enveloppes de billets pour mieux s’attacher les électeurs, ce qui lui vaudra en 2009 l’annulation de son élection par le conseil d’Etat et une inéligibilité d’un an.
D’emblée, il voit d’un mauvais œil qu’Olivier envisage à son tour de se présenter, lors des législatives de 1988. Serge, espérant trouver des obstacles, consulte Jacques Chirac, qui préside alors le RPR et veille sur ces Dassault qui ont toujours été les compagnons de route de la droite. Pour le tranquilliser, Chirac lui dit : « Laisse-le faire, il va être battu, ce sera une bonne leçon et il reviendra dans la boîte. » Seulement, Olivier est élu. Dès le lendemain, il trouve sur son bureau ses affaires dans un carton.
« Tu as choisi, maintenant tu t’en vas, lui lance son père.
– Mais tu m’avais dit oui !
– Je t’ai dit oui, mais je pensais non ! »
Olivier Dassault racontait une autre histoire, plus terrible encore, survenue vingt ans plus tard, après l’élection de Nicolas Sarkozy à la présidence de la République. L’aîné des Dassault espère alors devenir ministre du commerce extérieur. Mais son père assure au chef de l’Etat que l’affaire est impossible, puisqu’il s’apprête à le nommer président du groupe. Le gouvernement est donc annoncé sans lui. Evidemment, jamais Olivier Dassault n’est devenu le patron de l’entreprise…
Serge Dassault n’a jamais eu confiance dans les capacités de ses enfants. « Il avait l’idée qu’il fallait ériger une muraille de Chine entre la famille et l’entreprise et que, pour attirer des types brillants, il ne fallait pas mettre la famille au milieu », l’excuse aujourd’hui un haut cadre du groupe. Ni Thierry – qui s’est un temps spécialisé dans les activités multimédias du groupe – ni Marie-Hélène – qui semblait plus tentée par le mécénat – n’ont jamais revendiqué le pouvoir. Pendant longtemps, il n’est donc resté que les deux aînés pour tenter d’exister l’un contre l’autre, affichant une rivalité que leur père prenait un malin plaisir à exacerber.
Si encore Nicole Dassault avait compensé la dureté de son mari… Mais elle ne s’est pas montrée plus douce avec ses quatre enfants. A Laurent, le cadet de la fratrie, elle est capable de dire devant témoins : « D’un mot, Olivier peut embellir les choses, mais toi, d’un regard tu les salis… » Pour les 50 ans de Laurent, la famille au grand complet se retrouve dans la brasserie Chez Miocque, une institution deauvillaise. Alors que le père de famille se lance dans un discours dans lequel il rabaisse férocement son fils, un invité se penche vers Nicole : « Il y va fort quand même ! » Réponse de la mère : « Il est en dessous de la vérité… »
Lorsqu’il lui revient aux oreilles que ses fils se plaignent, le patriarche s’agace : « Oh, ça va, hein, ils ont tout ! » Et c’est vrai qu’ils vivent dans l’opulence, de restaurants étoilés en palaces, entretenant une écurie pour le polo et collectionnant des œuvres d’art. Le père, lui, vit comme un bon bourgeois de province. Chez les Dassault, boulevard Suchet, dans le 16e arrondissement de Paris, aucun signe extérieur de richesse. Mme Dassault utilise bien une voiture avec chauffeur, mais elle peut également aller acheter elle-même un paquet de lessive au supermarché du coin.
Le 21 novembre 2011, Serge Dassault se laisse filmer par les caméras de Mireille Dumas, la grande spécialiste des confessions intimes, devant des millions de téléspectateurs. Le soir de la diffusion du documentaire sur France 3, les quatre enfants sont devant leur téléviseur comme s’ils attendaient un oracle. Justement, voilà que le patriarche les compare : « Il faut d’abord quelqu’un de compétent. Olivier a fait l’Ecole de l’air, les autres n’ont rien fait d’intéressant, cingle-t-il. Ou du moins pas d’études techniques. » Enfin, il paraît rendre son verdict en faveur de l’aîné : « Sa façon de bien parler, sa connaissance des avions font qu’il est plus apte que les autres… » L’aîné jubile. Le lendemain, alors qu’il retrouve son père lors d’un déjeuner avec des journalistes, il glisse tout haut : « Acceptes-tu que le dauphin s’asseye à tes côtés ? » Son triomphe, cependant, est de courte durée. Dans les quarante-huit heures, son père publie un communiqué affirmant que la succession n’est pas ouverte… « C’est une famille où les pères ont tué les fils », résume un ancien ministre de l’économie.
Comité des sages
De son vivant, Serge Dassault avait mis en place un comité des sages. A sa mort, ce comité a décidé que Charles Edelstenne, l’homme-clé de l’entreprise, continuerait à diriger le groupe et que la holding familiale serait présidée tour à tour par chacun des enfants, qui continuent de se détester. Ainsi, lorsque Martine, l’épouse de Laurent, est décédée, Thierry ne s’est pas rendu à ses obsèques. Alors que son frère lui reprochait vivement son absence, il lui a rétorqué : « Je ne viendrai pas non plus à ton enterrement ! » Ambiance.
Il y a quelques mois, ce comité des sages, présidé cette fois par Henri Proglio, a convaincu les enfants de désigner Eric Trappier, actuel PDG de Dassault Aviation, pour succéder à Charles Edelstenne, le jour des 87 ans de ce dernier, le 9 janvier 2025.
Au sein de la holding familiale, c’est sa fille aînée, Helena, diplômée de l’Institut supérieur de gestion, qui a pris la place d’Olivier Dassault, plutôt que sa veuve. Charles Edelstenne s’est chargé de l’initier. Les héritiers se sont partagé les conseils d’administration du groupe. Laurent Dassault se présente parfois à l’étranger comme s’il était le patron de l’entreprise familiale et en France comme s’il était celui du Figaro, alors qu’il ne siège même pas au conseil d’administration du groupe de presse, où la famille est représentée par Thierry Dassault et Benoît Habert.
Thierry et Marie-Hélène s’arrangent entre eux pour tenir leur frère à l’écart, craignant ses déclarations intempestives et le scandale des compagnes d’un soir affriolantes avec lesquelles il s’affiche sans prudence ni pudeurs. Mis sur la touche, Laurent se contente de financer de temps à autre un film dans lequel il réclame un petit rôle de figuration, quand il ne joue pas au polo.
Parmi les treize petits-enfants, plusieurs ont fait des « stages découverte » au sein du groupe, cornaqués par Charles Edelstenne. Il n’y a cependant aucun ingénieur spécialiste d’aéronautique, comme l’étaient Marcel et Serge, dans cette quatrième génération. Certains ont opté pour la finance, d’autres investissent dans des start-up. Personne ne semble intéressé par les avions, les vignobles, ni même la presse. S’accorderont-ils pour vendre Le Figaro ? A Vincent Bolloré ? En 2021, la rumeur était si forte que Charles Edelstenne a dû la démentir dans une lettre adressée à tous les collaborateurs du journal. Les connaisseurs des entreprises militaro-industrielles n’y croient d’ailleurs pas. « Un groupe comme Dassault qui vend des avions militaires, notamment grâce à la commande publique, a besoin d’avoir un petit pistolet pointé sur l’Etat », glisse l’un d’eux.
« Les Dassault, c’est une histoire qui commence par une famille et qui finit avec des administrateurs », souffle le ministre de l’économie démissionnaire Bruno Le Maire. Au Rond-Point des Champs-Elysées, dans ce splendide hôtel de cocotte un peu vieillot décoré de toiles de maître qui abrite la direction du groupe, se trouve toujours le bureau qu’occupait autrefois Serge Dassault. Il n’a jamais été vidé, mais aucun de ses enfants ne s’y sera installé.
Varta - Announces commercial agreement on restructuring concept
Announces that it has today reached a commercial agreement on a restructuring concept with almost all syndicate loan lenders and certain lenders of promissory notes. The restructuring concept will significantly reduce the Company’s debt and provide it with fresh liquidity and provides for the entry of a company controlled by the Company’s current indirect majority shareholder, DDr. Michael Tojner (“MT InvestCo”), and an investment company of Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG (“Porsche”) as the new shareholders. The implementation of the restructuring concept will secure the financing of VARTA AG on the basis of the current business plan until the end of 2027 and shall be carried out in the course of the notified restructuring plan under the application of the German Company Stabilization and Restructuring Act (Unternehmensstabilisierungs- und -restrukturierungsgesetzes, StaRUG).
The restructuring concept foresees a significant reduction of the existing debt of € 485 million by a total of approximately € 285 million to approximately € 200 million through a haircut and an extension of the remaining loan obligations until December 31, 2027. In addition, to cover the liquidity requirements, a new senior loan (super senior) in the amount of € 60 million with a term until December 31, 2027 (“New Funds”) is planned, which can be provided in accordance with the commercial agreement by those of the existing lenders (syndicated loan lenders and lenders of promissory notes), who agree to the restructuring plan, pro rata to their existing loan commitments. The provision of the New Funds is fully guaranteed by certain existing lenders by way of a so-called backstop. In this context, an exception from the debt cut (so-called “elevation”) for existing loans and promissory notes in the amount of the provision of New Funds shall be made for those lenders who participate in such provision of New Funds. In addition, it is planned that all lenders participating in the provision of New Funds (“Super Senior Lenders”) will be granted a virtual participation in VARTA AG in the form of a value recovery instrument, which represents a significant participation in the Company’s economic equity. All other lenders shall be granted a debtor warrant (Besserungsschein), which will allow them to participate in the Company’s positive development if certain EBITDA figures are exceeded.
The restructuring concept also includes a simplified reduction of the share capital of VARTA AG to € 0, which will lead to the compensation-free exit of the current shareholders of VARTA and the delisting of VARTA shares.
Immediately following the capital reduction, MT InvestCo and a Porsche investment vehicle shall contribute a total of € 60 million in cash with a share premium in kind (in the form of operating real property currently leased by VARTA) for the purpose of stabilizing VARTA by way of a capital increase excluding subscription rights in exchange for the issuance of new shares in VARTA AG. After the capital measures have been completed, the Super Senior Lenders would economically hold 36% of the equity of VARTA AG, while MT InvestCo and Porsche would hold 32% each. Legally, the shares in VARTA AG would initially be held by MT InvestCo and Porsche, each with a 50% share, with neither MT InvestCo nor Porsche having control. The commercial agreement also provides for the opportunity for a further investor to invest into the Company within one year of completion of the StaRUG proceedings by way of a cash capital increase of up to a further € 30 million, which would dilute the shares held by the Super Senior Lenders, MT InvestCo and Porsche. In the course of the restructuring proceedings, VARTA AG may also be converted into a limited liability company (Gesellschaft mit beschränkter Haftung, GmbH).
VARTA will prepare the further documentation on this basis together with its advisors in the short term. However, the signing of the agreements to be prepared on the basis of the commercial agreement is still subject to, among other things, the approval of the committees of the parties involved and the approval of the merger control authorities.It is currently assumed that VARTA will submit a corresponding restructuring plan to the competent district court in Stuttgart – Restructuring Court – and request a hearing and voting date following the signing of these agreements.