FT : 7-Eleven owner gets takeover approach from rival Couche-Tard

7-Eleven owner gets takeover approach from rival Couche-Tard
Deal between convenience store groups would be biggest-ever unsolicited foreign bid for a Japanese company

The Japanese operator of 7-Eleven, the world’s biggest convenience store chain, has received a takeover approach from the Canadian retailer Alimentation Couche-Tard, which controls the Circle K brand.

Couche-Tard’s approach to Seven & i Holdings follows more than a year of on-off talks between the two retailers and is the biggest-ever foreign-led takeover attempt to target a Japanese company.

Seven & i’s shares rose 23 per cent on Monday, pushing the market capitalisation of the company to $39bn.

In a statement Seven & i said it had set up a special committee of non-executive board directors to examine the proposal from Couche-Tard, which seeks to acquire all its outstanding shares. The approach is the first to fully exploit recent changes in M&A guidelines to make it harder for Japanese company managements to ignore unsolicited or unwanted offers.

According to multiple people familiar with the matter, Seven & i has for some months been working with banking advisers including Morgan Stanley, to fortify itself against what it saw as the rising threat of a foreign-led acquisition.

Couche-Tard has been circling Seven & i for several years, making on-and-off contact with the Japanese company within the past two years in an attempt to open friendly deal discussions, say the same people.

The move from Couche-Tard, said banking sources, could also draw in other bidders for the company, including private equity groups which have long coveted the US network of 7-Eleven stores. News of the bid was first reported by the Nikkei.

Seven & i’s preparations for a potential takeover follow a pivotal revision last year of Japan’s merger and acquisition guidelines. The new wording strongly encourages companies to seriously consider any “bona fide” offers at the board level, ending decades where powerful chief executives could unilaterally reject bids against the interests of shareholders.

The change, say M&A bankers and lawyers, clears the way for foreign buyers to make unsolicited bids for more Japanese companies.

Seven & i has recently overhauled its board and attitude to corporate governance, they said, under pressure both from activist investor ValueAct, which made its stake in the group public in 2021, and Japan’s wider push to reform how companies engage with shareholders. The group’s founder Masatoshi Ito, a top shareholder, died last year.

Couche-Tard has engaged Goldman Sachs as its banking adviser. Morgan Stanley and Goldman declined to comment. Couche-Tard could not immediately be reached for comment.

If a deal with the Canadian group is completed it could face significant competition hurdles. After its acquisition of US petrol station group Speedway in 2021, 7-Eleven owns more than 13,000 stores in the US and Canada, while Couche-Tard has closer to 9,000. ValueAct has pushed for a spin-off of the 7-Eleven chain.

In response to the pressure for reform, Seven & i has also expanded internationally and shed less profitable businesses. It sold its Sogo & Seibu department store to Fortress Group last year.

Couche-Tard has been on the hunt for global acquisitions. The group has completed multiple takeovers over the past decade in the fragmented convenience store sector. It tried and failed to buy France’s Carrefour supermarket chain for €16.2bn in 2021.

Couche-Tard also bid for Speedway, which was eventually acquired by Seven & i for $21bn.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of August 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* ArcelorMittal Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 25 euros
* Aryzta Raised to Buy at Bank Vontobel; PT 2.30 Swiss francs
* Bradesco ADRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $3.20 (+)
* Coca-Cola Femsa ADRs Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $101
* Demant AS raised to Hold from Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux PT DKK20
* Ebro Foods Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander
* ForFarmers raised to Hold from Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT Euro 3
* Holcim raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT CH91
* Kesla Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 3.80 euros
* Martela Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 1 euro
* NIBE Industrier Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 50 kronor
* NIBE Industrier Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 53 kronor (+)
* Travis Perkins Raised to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 980 pence

>>> Down
* Argenx Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 530 euros (+)
* Avance Gas Cut to Sell at Arctic Securities; PT 128 kroner
* Emmi Cut to Hold at Bank Vontobel; PT 930 Swiss francs
* HP Inc Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $37
* Himalaya Shipping Cut to Sell at DNB Markets; PT 67 kroner (+)
* Karnell Group Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 54 kronor
* Mobilezone Cut to Hold at Research Partners (+)
* OSB Group Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 395 pence
* Ovaro Kiinteistosijoitus Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 4.40 euros
* Scatec Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 86 kroner
* Vestas cut to Hold from Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT DKK 175

>>> Initiation
* Holmen Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 390 kronor
* IPC Rated New Hold at Fearnley; PT 145 kronor (+)

>>> Call
* Goldman Sachs Strategists See Consensus on US Margins Too High (+)
* Hedge Funds Buy Stocks as Growth Concerns Ease: Goldman Sachs
* HP Inc. Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on Limited Valuation Upside
*
* OSB Rating, Estimates Cut at Peel Hunt After Outlook Lowered
* Travis Perkins Upgraded at Peel Hunt on Confidence in Recovery

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Scor (SDRC TH) +1.8%
  • Aker BP (ARC TH) +1.7%
  • ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) +1.3%
    • ArcelorMittal Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 25 euros
  • Unilever (UNVB TH) -1%
  • Zealand Pharma (22Z TH) -1.1%
  • Aedifica (AOO TH) -1.5%
    • Flanders Weighs Profit Ban on Nursing Home Care: Tijd
  • Orkla (OKL TH) -1.7%
  • Telefonica (TNE5 TH) -2.2%
    • Vodafone’s Revamp Maintains Upward Pressure on Credit Ratings
  • DSM-Firmenich (ZX6 TH) -2.7%
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) -3.2%
    • Germany to Reject New Aid Requests for Ukraine on Spending Cuts
  • Thales (CSF TH) -3.2%
    • Germany to Reject New Aid Requests for Ukraine on Spending Cuts
  • Spie (4SP TH) -3.6%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -5.2%
    • Germany to Reject New Aid Requests for Ukraine on Spending Cuts

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) -5.6%
    • Germany to Reject New Aid Requests for Ukraine on Spending Cuts
MDAX:
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1.6%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -3%
    • Germany to Reject New Aid Requests for Ukraine on Spending Cuts
SDAX:
  • Verbio SE (VBK TH) +4%
  • Wacker Neuson (WAC TH) +2%
  • Norma (NOEJ TH) +1.9%
  • BayWa (BYW6 TH) -1%
  • Ionos (IOS TH) -1.9%
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) -2%
    • Germany to Reject New Aid Requests for Ukraine on Spending Cuts
  • Takkt (TTK TH) -5.4%

>>> What to look at today - 19th of August 2024

Asian stocks advanced on Monday led by a rally in Hong Kong technology shares, while hopes of lower US interest rates pushed the region’s currencies to the highest level in five months against the greenback.  A gauge for Asian shares rose, following its best week in over a year. Equity markets in China rose as an index for Hong Kong tech climbed over 2.5%, propelled by JD.com Inc., whose shares surged the most since June after reporting unexpectedly strong results. Contracts for European and US equities also rose. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index gained as much as 0.6%, while the yen soared 1%. Monday’s activity suggests ebbing concerns of a US recession and the prospect of lower borrowing costs are lifting sentiment across the region. The major signpost for the week will be on Friday, when Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to give fresh insights on the course of US monetary policy at the central bank’s annual confab in Jackson Hole.  Goldman Sachs at the weekend trimmed the probability of a US recession in the next year to 20% from 25%, citing last week’s retail sales and jobless claims data. If the August jobs report set for release on Sept. 6 “looks reasonably good, we would probably cut our recession probability back to 15%,” Goldman economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a report to clients on Saturday. In Asia, investors will be looking this week to central bank meetings in Indonesia and South Korea for signs of policy easing, while the Thailand decision will be crucial following reports the nation’s new prime minister may abandon a key stimulus package.  Stronger Asian currencies which have benefited from improved risk sentiment should bring faster policy rate cuts by many Asian central banks, Tomo Kinoshita, global market strategist at Invesco Asset Management Japan, said on Friday. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is scheduled to attend a special session at parliament this week to discuss the July 31 interest rate hike, which roiled global markets. Hedge funds have turned bullish on the nation’s currency for the first time since 2021, which marks a sharp turnaround from the extremely negative sentiment seen among these traders as recently as early July. Large investors, such as Vanguard, are still betting on more interest rate hikes in Japan in the coming months, even after a sharp decline in market pricing for more tightening this year. The yen rose for a second session on Monday to trade at around 146 per dollar, as the nation’s equities fell for the first time in six days. In China, authorities are expected to keep the 1- and 5-year loan prime rates steady on Tuesday after the People’s Bank of China last week pledged further steps to support economic recovery, while cautioning that it won’t be adopting “drastic” measures. Markets will also be monitoring Chinese automakers including Xpeng Inc., Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp., who all should report higher vehicle sales. Challenges remain high though, as competition heats up and the European Union moves ahead with tariffs. Oil declined for the fourth time in five sessions as traders tracked US-led efforts to secure a cease-fire in the 10-month old Middle East, while the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating. Gold wavered near an all-time high on hopes the Fed is edging closer to cutting rates. Elsewhere, iron-ore had its worst week since early June on concern that a steel-industry crisis rippling across China will sap demand, while supplies from miners remain robust.

Nikkei -1.74% Hang Seng +0.86% CSI +0.24% Shanghai +0.38% Shenzen -0.12%

Eur$ 1.1035 CNH 7.1433 CNY 7.1436 JPY 146.15 GBP 1.2953 CHF 0.8639 RUB 89.5996 TRY 33.6908 WTI$ 76.39 Gold 2,499.50 -0.30% BTC 58,572 -2.10% ETH 2,634 -1.20%

S&P -0.02% Nasdaq -0.06% EuroStoxx +0.06% FTSE -0.18% Dax -0.08% SMI

Macro :
- Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter for 2024; voter for 2025): I don't think that cutting rates is a certainty - CBC interview (update)
- Stoxx 600 Turnover Declines 32.3%, Dragged by Banks
- Hedge Funds Buy Stocks as Growth Concerns Ease: Goldman Sachs
- UK Stocks Emerge as Safe Haven in Turbulent Month: Macro View
- Germany halts new military aid to Ukraine
- Brevan Howard Rehires Michael Lublinsky to Run US Macro Trading
- Riksbank Decision, Jackson Hole, BOJ’s Ueda: Events to Watch
- Ukraine’s Offensive Derails Secret Efforts for Partial Cease-fire With Russia, Officials Say

Keep an eye on :
- ACLN SW : Accelleron to Acquire True North Marine
- ACS SM : ACS Consortium Wins $10.8b Managed Lanes Project in US: Filing
- AAPL US : Apple Is Playing the Long Game by Dropping Qualcomm: Power On
- AAPL US : Foxconn Tech to Work With Apple on Tabletop Robot Production:EDN
- BHP AU : BHP Settles Union Spat That Threatened Wage Deal at Copper Mine
- BNP FP : BNP Wealth Launches External Asset Manager Desk in Asia
- BA US : Boeing’s New CEO Wants to ‘Reset’ Relations With Biggest Union
- BRNK GY : Further debt repayment following good business performance in the year to date
- BSGR NA : B&S Group 1H Organic Revenue +4.2%
- ATD CN : Seven & I Got Takeover Offer From Couche-Tard, Nikkei Says (1)
- CVC NA : CVC Preparing Bid for Grant Thornton UK Stake, Sky News Reports
- ENEL IM : Chile Takes Further Step on Enel’s Concession Expiration Process
- ENGI FP : Engie and Canadian fund's investment plans in Brazil
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Sells Iconectiv to Koch Equity, Sees ~$1b Cash Gain
- FCX US : Indonesia said to be still in talks with Co on mining permit extension - press
- GURN SW : Gurit Holding: Half-year Report 2024
- IBE SM : AMLO Gets $852 Million Pension-Fund Backing for Iberdrola Deal
- METN SW : Metall Zug 1H Net Income CHF56.6M Vs. CHF12.6M Y/y
- PLUS LN : Plus500 1H Revenue $398.2M
- QCOM US : Apple Is Playing the Long Game by Dropping Qualcomm: Power On
- TGS NO : TGS Starts PAMA 3D Phase 1 Survey in Brazil Equatorial Margin
- UBI FP : Ubisoft Entertainment Cuts 45 People From Its US Staff
- VAR1 GY : Varta Reaches Deal With Lenders to Slash €285 Million Debt
- WBD IM : Red Sea International Signs 658M Riyal Contract With Webuild

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of August 2024

>>> Up
* ArcelorMittal Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 25 euros
* Aryzta Raised to Buy at Bank Vontobel; PT 2.30 Swiss francs
* Coca-Cola Femsa ADRs Raised to Outperform at Itau BBA; PT $101
* Demant AS raised to Hold from Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux PT DKK20
* Ebro Foods Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander
* ForFarmers raised to Hold from Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT Euro 3
* Holcim raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT CH91
* Kesla Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 3.80 euros
* Martela Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 1 euro
* NIBE Industrier Raised to Hold at ABG; PT 50 kronor
* Travis Perkins Raised to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 980 pence

>>> Down
* Avance Gas Cut to Sell at Arctic Securities; PT 128 kroner
* Emmi Cut to Hold at Bank Vontobel; PT 930 Swiss francs
* HP Inc Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $37
* Karnell Group Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 54 kronor
* OSB Group Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 395 pence
* Ovaro Kiinteistosijoitus Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 4.40 euros
* Scatec Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 86 kroner
* Vestas cut to Hold from Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT DKK 175

>>> Initiation
* Holmen Rated New Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 390 kronor

>>> Call
* Hedge Funds Buy Stocks as Growth Concerns Ease: Goldman Sachs
* HP Inc. Downgraded at Morgan Stanley on Limited Valuation Upside
* OSB Rating, Estimates Cut at Peel Hunt After Outlook Lowered
* Travis Perkins Upgraded at Peel Hunt on Confidence in Recovery

>>> Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter for 2024; voter for 2025): I don't think that cutt

Fed's Goolsbee (non-voter for 2024; voter for 2025): I don't think that cutting rates is a certainty - CBC interview (update)
- I don't like, as you know, tying our hands ahead of time when we got a lot of data to come in
- I do think that the- we set an interest rate more than a year ago at a high level because we were fighting inflation, and the economic conditions today are very different than they were when we set the rate at this level
- We're not in elections business
- I think it's a valid caution when rates are this high, if you take measure of how tight the Fed is as just a What's the rate minus what's the inflation rate, when you set a rate high like we have, and hold it there while inflation falls, you're actually tightening
- When you see consumer credit delinquencies, credit card delinquencies rising like they've been rising, those are warning signs. Now there's, there's some others that are more positive, but they're, they're definitely of concern
- If you keep too tight for too long, you will have a problem on the employment side of the Fed's mandate

WSJ : U.K. Rate Cut Invigorates Property Market

U.K. Rate Cut Invigorates Property Market
Number of potential buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale during August rose 19%

U.K. property demand rose after the Bank of England’s rate cut in August, while the average price of property coming to the market fell from July’s average price, according to data from Rightmove.

The U.K. property website said the bank’s first-rate cut in four years spurred an uptick in market activity, with a 19% increase in the number of potential buyers contacting estate agents about homes for sale during August compared with the same month a year ago.

“The first Bank of England rate cut for four years at the start of the month has helped to accelerate mortgage rate drops and contributed significantly to improved buyer demand,” Rightmove said.

In July, the increase was 11% on the same month last year.

Meanwhile, the average asking price for new sellers fell 1.5%, or 5,708 pounds ($7,337) to 367,785 pounds, matching the long-term average as prices have declined from July to August for the past 18 years.

“While mortgage rates aren’t yet substantially lower since the rate cut, the fact that the long-hoped-for first cut has finally arrived, and mortgage rates are heading downwards, is positive for home-mover sentiment,” Rightmove’s director of property science, Tim Bannister, said.

Rightmove expects a further increase in activity during the Fall following the rate cut, and, as such, raised its full-year forecast to a 1% rise in new seller asking prices, from a previously forecast 1% fall.

However, although buyers and sellers are more optimistic about the outlook of the market, mortgage rates are still very high compared with a few years ago, stretching affordability.

A few more cuts to the central bank rate will likely be necessary to see a more substantial reduction in mortgage rates, Bannister said.