>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of January 2025

>>> Up
* Aena Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 228 euros
* ASML Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 750 euros
* Ceres Power Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 220 pence
* Gecina Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 107 euros
* LEG Immobilien Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 92 euros
* Lindt & Spruengli Raised to Buy at Redburn
* Logitech Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Meta PT Raised to $785 from $690 at TD Cowen
* Netcompany Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 350 kroner
* QleanAir Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 25 kronor
* SAP ADRs PT Raised to $320 from $265 at Argus
* TAG Immobilien Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 16.50 euros
* Verkkokauppa.com Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 1.90 euros

>>> Down
* Alliance Pharma Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Avolta AG Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 Swiss francs
* Icade Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 25 euros
* Nvidia PT Cut to $152 from $166 at Morgan Stanley
* Nvidia Cut to Sell at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $112
* Richemont Cut to Hold at Bank Vontobel; PT 185 Swiss francs
* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 8.70 euros
* Unibail Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 85 euros

>>> Initiation
* Havas NV Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1.90 euros

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 30th of December 2024

European and US stock futures gained in line with Asian shares as traders awaited an afternoon speech by a Japanese monetary official and looked ahead to a rate decision by the European Central Bank. Euro Stoxx 50 contracts rose 0.2%, while contracts on the S&P 500 advanced 0.4%. The moves echoed a small bump in Asian share prices, which pushed a regional gauge around 0.1% higher. But liquidity was thin in region, with many of the biggest stock markets closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.  Investors had plenty to digest from US trading hours — but none of it pointed to a clear direction for stocks. A decision by the Federal Reserve to hold rates was widely expected, and earnings from International Business Machines Corp., Meta Platforms Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Tesla Inc. were mixed.  That left investors looking for local events to anchor their trading decisions, with an afternoon speech by Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino taking center stage. The BOJ hiked rates last week, and traders think the Fed’s signal overnight that it is in no rush to cut could give the central banker room to strike a more hawkish tone. The yen gained as much as 0.6% against the dollar as fast money traders lined up bets on the currency, according to an Asia-based FX trader. Shares in Japan moved up. The European Central Bank is widely expected to cut rates by a quarter-point on Thursday, as the central bank tries to boost a sluggish economy. That will continue an aggressive cycle of easing which included four rate cuts in 2024. Shifting bets on AI have defined the week in global markets, following a selloff sparked by news that Chinese AI startup DeepSeek had made much more progress than expected on its own model. SoftBank Group Corp.’s shares became the latest to rumble from AI-related news, after reports that the company is considering an investment of up to $25 billion in OpenAI, its partner in the Project Stargate joint venture. SoftBank’s shares fell as much as 2.1% before paring some of their losses, but the news helped lift sentiment for tech stocks more broadly. In commodities, oil steadied as investors waited for clarity on the US administration’s plans for trade policy, after Donald Trump’s pick for commerce secretary said Canada and Mexico may be able to avoid levies. US After Hours Busy earnings day with some big tech names; CLS +12.9%, CALX +11.2%, IBM +8.4%, TSLA +5%, LRCX +4%, WDC +2.5%, META +1.7% higher on earnings; WHR -13.2%, CMPR -8.5%, NOW -8.2%, MSFT -5.1% lower on earnings

Nikkei Hang Seng CSI Shanghai Shenzen

Eur$ CNH CNY JPY GBP CHF RUB TRY WTI$ Gold BTC ETH

S&P Nasdaq EuroStoxx FTSE Dax SMI

Macro :
- Consulting Firm CGI Sees More M&A, Opportunities with US’s DOGE
- Lutnick: If Canada, Mexico Execute, They Will Avoid Some Tariffs

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN SW : ABB 4Q Operating Ebita Meets Estimates; New Buyback (1)
- AMBUB DC : Ambu Maintains FY Organic Revenue Forecast
- ARJOB SS : Arjo 4Q Net Sales Meets Estimates
- AXFO SS : Axfood 4Q Operating Profit Meets Estimates
- BBVA SM : BBVA 4Q Net Income Beats Estimates , *BBVA ANNOUNCES €993M BUYBACK PROGRAM
- BGN IM : Banca Generali Says About 95% of Intermonte Shares Tendered
- BUCN SW : Bucher FY Sales Meets Estimates
- CABK SM : CaixaBank Sees 2025 Return on Tangible Equity About +16%
- SMDS LN : Polar Capital Tech Trust to Replace DS Smith in FTSE 100
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Plans to Reduce Manager Roles to Boost Efficiency
- DWS GY : DWS Sees €18 Billion Inflows in Fourth Quarter, Higher Dividend
- ERF FP : Eurofins Scientific FY Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
- EVO SS : Evolution Sees 2025 Ebitda Margin 66% to 68%, Est. 69.2%
- G IM : Generali Won’t Present List of Board Candidates Amid Law Change
- G IM : Generali to Pay Out Over €7 Billion Dividends in Three-Year Plan
- GRNG SS : Granges 4Q Adjusted Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- HLAG GY : Hapag-Lloyd Prelim FY Ebitda Beats Estimates
- IBM US : IBM 4Q Revenue Meets Estimates: Snapshot
- IBRX US : ImmunityBio Shares Rise After Cancer Trial Pact with BeiGene
- INDT SS : Indutrade 4Q Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- INT IM : Banca Generali Says About 95% of Intermonte Shares Tendered
- KNEBV FH : Kone 4Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- KPN NA : KPN 4Q Adjusted Ebitda After Leases Meets Estimates
- LHA GY : Lufthansa to Take Stake in Latvia’s AirBaltic Ahead of IPO
- META US : Meta Shares Slip After 1Q Rev. Guidance Disappoints
- MRN FP :
- MTRO LN : Metro Bank Confirms Talks to Sell Consumer Loan Portfolio
- AERO SW : Montana Aerospace Sees 2025 Adjusted Ebitda Above EU200M
- BMPS IM : Paschi Plans Meetings With Mediobanca’s Foreign Investors: MF
- NDA FH : Nordea Bank 4Q Net Interest Income Beats Estimates
- MOWI NO : Mowi Pays NOK7.4b to Raise Nova Sea Stake, Offer to Buy Rest (1)
- NOKIA FH : Nokia Expects Less Profit as Companies Delay Network Upgrades
- PCT LN : Polar Capital Tech Trust to Replace DS Smith in FTSE 100
- RNO FP : Renault urges Nissan to secure higher premium from Honda
- ROG Sw : Roche Sees FY25 Sales Increase in Mid Single Digit Range
- RVRC SS : RVRC Holding 2Q Net Sales Beats Estimates
- SAGA LN : Saga Taps HPS to Help Refinance Over £450m Existing Debt: Sky
- SAN FP : Sanofi 4Q Business EPS Misses Estimates
- SHEL LN : Shell, Thebe Near $1 Billion South Africa Oil-Asset Sales Pact
- 9984 JP : SoftBank in Talks to Invest Up to $25 Billion in OpenAI (1)
- SF SS : Stillfront Prelim 4Q Sales Misses Estimates
- STMPA FP : STMicro 1Q Net Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates
- SNI NO : Stolt-Nielsen 4Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- UHR SW : Swatch FY Operating Profit Misses Estimates Swatch Profit Plunges Almost 75%, Hit by Weakness in China
- SY1 GY : Symrise Sees 2025 Ebitda Margin About 21% Symrise Sees 2025 Ebitda Margin About 21%
- TELIA SS : Telia 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
- TSLA US : Tesla 4Q Adjusted EPS Misses Estimates: Snapshot, Tesla Books $600 Million Boost From Bitcoin on Accounting Change
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies failed to convince Joe Biden’s team to back $20bn African project
- VOD LN : Vodafone Plans Rollout of Starlink Rival to Connect Remote Areas
- VLTSA FP : Voltalia 4Q Revenue EU167.2M
- WDP BB : WDP 2025 Adjusted EPS Forecast Misses Estimates

>>> US After Hours Summary: Busy earnings day with some big tech names; CLS +12.

After Hours Summary: Busy earnings day with some big tech names; CLS +12.9%, CALX +11.2%, IBM +8.4%, TSLA +5%, LRCX +4%, WDC +2.5%, META +1.7% higher on earnings; WHR -13.2%, CMPR -8.5%, NOW -8.2%, MSFT -5.1% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CLS +12.9%, CALX +11.2%, IBM +8.4%, LVS +6.6%, TSLA +5%, LRCX +4%, BHE +3%, CCS +2.9%, WDC +2.5%, META +1.7%, NFG +1.7%, DLB +1.4%, RJF +1.4%, CP +1%, NLY +0.8%, MTH +0.7%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: STGW +2.5% (launches STAGE AI), ALLY +2.3% (CEO bought $1 mln in shares), COUR +1.9% (CEO to retire, names new CEO), HRTG +1.5% (quantifies catastrophe losses from LA wildfires), SCHW +0.9% (increases dividend), VIK +0.5% (names new president), CWT +0.4% (increases dividend), DESP +0.4% (strategic partnership with HBX Group), AMGN +0.3% (European Commission approves BLINCYTO monotherapy as part of consolidation therapy), LAES +0.3% (expands its patent pool), MOG.A +0.1% (wins $100 mln LMT contract)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: WHR -13.2%, CMPR -8.5%, NOW -8.2% (also authorizes new $3 bln share repurchase program; also expands partnership with Google Cloud; also expands strategic alliance with Visa; also announces strategic partnership with SoftwareOne), CLB -7.3%, LEVI -6.8%, RHI -6.3%, MSFT -5.1%, SIGI -5%, MXL -3.8%, TER -3.3%, CHRW -1.8%, TTEK -1.1%, TWO -0.6%, LBRT -0.5%, HWKN -0.5%, SEIC -0.3%, URI -0.2% (also increases dividend), AMP -0.1%, WOLF -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: CRGX -77.3% (to discontinue FIRCE-1), IKT -21.8% (reports Phase 2 data on risvodetinib), IRWD -16.7% (initiates Apraglutide NDA submission; also sees FY25 revs below consensus), BFLY -7.6% (commences stock offering), IMNM -6.4% (commences stock offering), AJG -0.8% (increases dividend), CQP -0.3% (increases dividend)

>>> US Close Dow -0.31% S&P -0.47% Nasdaq -0.51% Russell -0.25%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market had a somewhat mixed showing today. There was not a lot of conviction on either side of the tape in the early going as participants waited on the FOMC policy decision at 2:00 ET, followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 ET.

The FOMC voted unanimously to leave the target range for the fed funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, which was widely expected by the market. The language of the directive changed to exclude the line that "Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective..." Instead, the January directive said that "Inflation remains somewhat elevated."

This wasn't too surprising and the market already expected the Fed to remain cautious as the economy and labor market continue to evolve. Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the press conference echoed this. He said "The broad sense of the Committee is that we don't need to be in a hurry to adjust the policy stance."

There was some volatility in stocks and bonds in immediate response to these developments, but markets ultimately settled little changed from levels seen ahead of the 2:00 ET policy announcement. This was an indication that participants didn't see anything truly surprising in today's decision or in the Fed Chair's comments.

The S&P 500 closed 0.5% lower, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average logged a 0.3% decline. The 2-yr note yield, which is most sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, settled two basis points higher at 4.23% and the 10-yr yield was unchanged at 4.56%.
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +5.1.% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +3.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: +2.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +2.4% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +1.7% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -2.0%; Prior 0.1%
  • December Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods -$122.1 bln; Prior was revised to -$103.5 bln from -$102.9 bln
  • December Adv. Retail Inventories -0.3%; Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.3%
  • December Adv. Wholesale Inventories -0.5%; Prior was revised to -0.1% from -0.2%

Looking ahead to Thursday, market participants receive the following economic data:
  • 8:30 ET: Advance Q4 GDP (consensus 2.3%; prior 3.1%), advance Q4 GDP Deflator (Briefing.com consensus 2.4%; prior 1.9%), Weekly Initial Claims (consensus 221,000; prior 223,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.899 mln)
  • 10:00 ET: December Pending Home Sales (consensus 0.8%; prior 2.2%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -223 bcf)

Microsoft beats by $0.12, beats on revs; Azure +31% CC vs +31-32% CC prior guida

Microsoft beats by $0.12, beats on revs; Azure +31% CC vs +31-32% CC prior guidance; IC segment revs a bit light of guidance (442.33 -4.87)
  • Reports Q2 (Dec) earnings of $3.23 per share, $0.12 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.11; revenues rose 12% year/year to $69.63 bln vs the $68.87 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of +31%, +31% constant currency vs +31-32% CC prior guidance.
    • Productivity and Business Processes segment revs grew 14% (+13% CC) to $29.4 bln vs $28.70-29.00 bln prior guidance.
      • Microsoft 365 Commercial products and cloud services revenue increased 15%, driven by Microsoft 365 Commercial cloud revenue growth of 16% (up 15% in constant currency).
      • Microsoft 365 Consumer products and cloud services revenue increased 8% driven by Microsoft 365 Consumer cloud revenue growth of 8%.
      • LinkedIn revenue increased 9%.
      • Dynamics products and cloud services revenue increased 15% (+14% CC) driven by Dynamics 365 revenue growth of 19% (+18% CC).
    • Intelligent Cloud segment revs grew 19% to $25.5 bln vs $25.55-25.85 bln prior guidance.
      • Server products and cloud services revenue increased 21% driven by Azure and other cloud services revenue growth of 31%.
    • More Personal Computing segment revs were flat yr/yr at $14.7 bln vs $13.85-14.25 bln prior guidance.
      • Windows OEM and Devices revenue increased 4%.
      • Xbox content and services revenue increased 2%.
      • Search and news advertising revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs increased 21% (+20% CC).
  • "We are innovating across our tech stack and helping customers unlock the full ROI of AI to capture the massive opportunity ahead," said Satya Nadella, chairman and chief executive officer of Microsoft. "Already, our AI business has surpassed an annual revenue run rate of $13 billion, up 175% year-over-year... This quarter Microsoft Cloud revenue was $40.9 billion, up 21% year-over-year," said Amy Hood, executive vice president and chief financial officer of Microsoft. "We remain committed to balancing operational discipline with continued investments in our cloud and AI infrastructure."

>>> Tesla misses by $0.04, misses on revs; plans for new vehicles remain on trac

Tesla misses by $0.04, misses on revs; plans for new vehicles remain on track for start of production in 1H25; Cybercab scheduled for volume production in 2026 (389.10 -8.99)
  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.73 per share, $0.04 worse than the FactSet Consensus of $0.77; revenues rose 2.1% year/year to $25.71 bln vs the $27.26 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • Total gross margin down 138 bps yr/yr to 16.3%.
    • Total Deliveries of 495,570, up 2% yr/yr.
    • Increased AI training compute by over 400% in 2024.
  • Outlook:
    • Affordability remains top of mind for customers, and continue to review every aspect of cost of goods sold (COGS) per vehicle to help alleviate this concern.
      • In Q4, COGS per vehicle reached its lowest level ever at <$35,000, driven largely by raw material cost improvement, helping to partially offset our investment in compelling financing and lease options.
    • 2025 will be a seminal year in Tesla's history as FSD (Supervised) continues to rapidly improve with the aim of ultimately exceeding human levels of safety. This will eventually unlock an unsupervised FSD option for customers and the Robotaxi business, which expect to begin launching later this year in parts of the U.S. Also continue to work on launching FSD (Supervised) in Europe and China in 2025.
    • Co added, "With the advancements in vehicle autonomy and the introduction of new products, we expect the vehicle business to return to growth in 2025. The rate of growth will depend on a variety of factors, including the rate of acceleration of our autonomy efforts, production ramp at our factories and the broader macroeconomic environment. We expect energy storage deployments to grow at least 50% year-over-year in 2025."
    • Plans for new vehicles, including more affordable models, remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025. Robotaxi product -- Cybercab -- will continue to pursue a revolutionary "unboxed" manufacturing strategy and is scheduled for volume production starting in 2026.

>>> Meta Platforms beats by $1.26, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line, reiter

Meta Platforms beats by $1.26, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line, reiterates FY25 capex guidance (676.49 +2.16)
  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $8.02 per share, $1.26 better than the FactSet Consensus of $6.76; revenues rose 20.6% year/year to $48.38 bln vs the $46.99 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Family daily active people (DAP) -- DAP was 3.35 billion on average for December 2024, an increase of 5% year-over-year.
  • Ad impressions -- Ad impressions delivered across our Family of Apps increased by 6% and 11% year-over-year for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, respectively.
  • Average price per ad -- Average price per ad increased by 14% and 10% year-over-year for the fourth quarter and full year 2024, respectively.
  • Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of $39.5-$41.8 bln vs. $41.68 bln FactSet Consensus. While company is not providing a full year 2025 revenue outlook, expects the investments we are making in core business this year will give an opportunity to continue delivering strong revenue growth throughout 2025.
  • FY25 Guidance: Expect full year 2025 total expenses to be in the range of $114-119 billion. Expects the single largest driver of expense growth in 2025 to be infrastructure costs, driven by higher operating expenses and depreciation. Anticipates capital expenditures will be in the range of $60-65 billion, in-line with recent guidance from January 24. Expects capital expenditures growth in 2025 will be driven by increased investment to support both our generative AI efforts and core business.

WSJ : Major Penn Entertainment Shareholder Is Launching Proxy Fight

Major Penn Entertainment Shareholder Is Launching Proxy Fight
The firm has criticized the casino operator’s M&A history, share performance

Investor HG Vora is launching a proxy fight at casino operator Penn Entertainment PENN 4.77%increase; green up pointing triangle and is submitting nominations for three independent board seats, according to people familiar with the matter.

The details
The Wall Street Journal reported in late 2023 that HG Vora was looking to win representation on Penn’s board. The push has taken some time to play out.

New York-based HG Vora said in a securities filing earlier this month that it had reduced its stake in Penn to less than 5% to be able to launch a proxy battle.

The firm had been talking to gambling regulators in more than two dozen states to obtain the required gambling licenses to submit nominees to Penn’s board. HG Vora said it was caught up in one jurisdiction, and it cut its stake so it could proceed with its nominations.

HG Vora’s nominees are:

Carlos Ruisanchez, former chief financial officer of Pinnacle Entertainment (which was bought by Penn in 2018).
William J. Clifford, former chief financial officer at the gambling-focused real-estate investment trust Gaming & Leisure Properties.
Johnny Hartnett, former chief executive officer of the European gambling-and-tech business Superbet Group.
It marks the first time in HG Vora’s 15-year history that the firm has launched such a fight.

The context
Penn operates 43 casinos and racetracks in 20 states, as well as online sports betting and online casino gambling in numerous jurisdictions, according to its website.

HG Vora, which isn’t typically an activist firm, believes Penn has a poor record of capital allocation, including what it views as failed acquisitions.

The company bought Barstool Sports in a two-step process that kicked off in 2020, spending a total of around $550 million on the sports-media publisher. In 2023, Penn largely unwound the deal, which gave it exclusive rights to use the Barstool brand in its sports-betting products. It said it would use ESPN’s brand in its online sportsbook and sell its Barstool ownership back to the founder, David Portnoy, for $1.

Penn’s Barstool sportsbook was later rebranded to ESPN Bet.

Penn’s share price has tumbled since hitting a record in early 2021, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 and its closest peer in the industry, Boyd Gaming. The company now has a market value of around $3.1 billion.

HG Vora said it believes Penn’s stock is deeply undervalued and sees untapped opportunities in the firm’s portfolio.

HG Vora was founded in 2009 by Parag Vora. The firm is known for working with gambling companies and their boards, including when it helped sell U.K.-based Gamesys Group to Bally’s.

>>> Microsoft: DeepSeek R1 is now available on Azure AI Foundry and GitHub (443.

Microsoft: DeepSeek R1 is now available on Azure AI Foundry and GitHub
  • "DeepSeek R1 is now available in the model catalog on Azure AI Foundry and GitHub, joining a diverse portfolio of over 1,800 models, including frontier, open-source, industry-specific, and task-based AI models. As part of Azure AI Foundry, DeepSeek R1 is accessible on a trusted, scalable, and enterprise-ready platform, enabling businesses to seamlessly integrate advanced AI while meeting SLAs, security, and responsible AI commitments—all backed by Microsoft's reliability and innovation."