Saudi Arabia’s other war enters dangerous new chapter
Iran-backed Houthis launch biggest attack on the kingdom in years this week, taking their conflict to a new level
By launching the biggest attack on Saudi Arabia in years, firing dozens of missiles and drones at energy facilities across the south, the Iran-backed Houthis have taken their conflict with the kingdom to a new level.
The Yemeni group’s assault this week targeted energy sites and a military base across four Saudi cities, raising the stakes in another of the Middle East’s long-running conflicts and dragging Riyadh back into a conflict it had in recent years sought to extract itself from.
The attacks, which analysts said came in waves beginning in the early hours of Tuesday, wounded more than 70 people and temporarily halted some energy operations as emergency workers sought to contain fires, helping push oil prices towards $100 a barrel.
While Saudi Arabia avoided the worst of Iran’s attacks on the Gulf during the height of the US-Israeli war with Iran, this week’s assault highlighted the dangers posed by a battle-hardened enemy dug deep in rugged mountains across its southern border.
“The fact [the Houthis] are now hitting these cities really highlights Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability and its danger of being pulled into this conflict far further than it would have wanted,” said Neil Quilliam, an associate fellow at Chatham House. “Simultaneous attacks on several cities tell you something about the Houthis’ improved capabilities.”
This week’s assault came after the Houthis had, in recent weeks, attacked tankers in the Red Sea and launched fresh offensives against Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, reigniting the conflict and shattering a 2022 ceasefire.
The campaign is already affecting the kingdom’s ability to ship oil. Alongside attacking tankers, the rebels have threatened to close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which has become a vital crude export route on Saudi Arabia’s west coast. Riyadh had been able to move exports to the Red Sea via a pipeline after Iran throttled shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Last month, the kingdom’s tracked crude exports fell to about 3mn barrels a day, the lowest level in at least 13 years, due to threats in both waterways, according to data from Kpler.
The Saudi energy ministry did not say which facilities were hit in Tuesday’s attack or provide details of the damage.
Saudi Arabia has drawn less Iranian fire than many neighbours partly because areas of the vast nation were too far for Iran’s short-range missiles, while Riyadh also maintained diplomatic channels with Tehran and sought to de-escalate, analysts say.
While oil output dropped and the Saudi economy suffered the steepest quarterly decline since the Covid-19 pandemic, higher crude prices meant its oil revenue actually increased.
But in the background, the Houthi threat has simmered on its doorstep. The Houthis largely stayed out of the Iran war beyond firing several salvos of missiles and drones at Israel, and the four-year truce with Saudi Arabia held.
But in July, hostilities began to flare up, with the Houthis declaring a blockade on Saudi ports, attacking the kingdom’s tankers in the Red Sea and targeting its energy facilities.
The Houthis’ belligerence serves Iran’s interests by increasing pressure on energy prices, analysts say, but the rebels, feeling emboldened, are also seeking to pressure Saudi Arabia to make financial concessions to them. This includes paying salaries in areas under Houthi control, giving them access to oil revenues from Yemeni government-controlled areas and paying compensation for war losses.
Saudi Arabia, however, viewed the Houthis’ demands as tantamount to extortion, and analysts say it spent months arming and training forces aligned to the Yemeni government to prepare for any escalation.
The build-up of anti-Houthi forces caused the rebels to launch what was widely viewed as a pre-emptive offensive along the Red Sea coast over the weekend, in a bid to advance south towards the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
The Saudi-backed Yemeni forces, armed with new types of drones, have since mounted their own counteroffensive on multiple fronts.
Mohammed Albasha, founder of the US-based risk advisory firm Basha Report, said the counteroffensive has put the Houthis under the most significant pressure since 2022. But, he added, the rebels would “fight tooth and nail rather than simply fold”.
“This is the beginning of the full-scale war and it’s going to be a protracted conflict, there’s not going to be a quick win,” Albasha said. “All sides have been preparing for years.”
The Houthis on Tuesday accused Saudi Arabia of launching more than 120 air strikes across Yemen since the weekend, alleging that one strike hit a prison, killing inmates. Houthi-controlled media then said the kingdom carried out more strikes on Wednesday.
The militant group said it carried out Tuesday’s “large-scale military operation” in retaliation. Riyadh said the Houthis targeted the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran.
A Saudi military spokesperson said the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen would take “all necessary operational measures to deter this terrorist militia” and “neutralise its danger”.
Ali Shihabi, a Saudi commentator familiar with Riyadh’s thinking, said the kingdom anticipated an escalation was coming and had been building up the Yemeni government-aligned forces for months.
“The Houthis are getting hit badly on the battlefield,” he said. “They are suffering and lashing out, so this was expected.”
Stockpiles of missile interceptors that are vital to air-defence systems have come under strain across the region in the wake of Iran’s retaliatory attacks on the US’s Arab allies.
Shihabi said the Saudis had been replenishing their stocks. “Riyadh knew this was coming,” he said.
But the escalation brings high risks for the kingdom as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seeks to push ahead with his ambitious plans to develop his nation.
Prince Mohammed spearheaded the intervention by an Arab coalition in Yemen’s civil war after the Houthis ousted the Yemeni government in 2015. But Riyadh got bogged down in a conflict that cost billions of dollars and drew widespread condemnation for coalition air strikes that killed thousands of civilians.
He then sought to withdraw from the conflict as almost daily Houthi missile and drone strikes undermined his modernisation plans.
Most Houthi fire was intercepted, but missiles that got through air defences hit energy infrastructure, airports and other key sites, tarnishing his efforts to project the kingdom as a regional hub.
The disparate anti-Houthi forces, meanwhile, are made up of myriad factions that often have competing interests and have previously failed to weaken the rebels’ hold over Yemeni capital Sana’a.
If the kingdom becomes embroiled in a renewed, protracted conflict, it would further dent its ability to attract badly needed foreign investment to back its plans, analysts say.
The Houthis previously disrupted shipping through the Red Sea for nearly two years after Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack on Israel, despite US bombing campaigns against the rebels.
“If Bab al-Mandeb does come under threat and it becomes a real blockade, Saudi Arabia is squeezed on both sides and has very few options,” said Quilliam. “The fact that they had been able to switch [oil exports] from the east to the west coast gave them that safety valve and that’s under threat.”
He added: “The focus for the kingdom is going to be security right now.”
