TheChek News Flow

>>> What to look at today - 13th of April 2026

Oil surged while stocks and bonds fell as a brief bout of market optimism unraveled after President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with Iran after weekend peace talks collapsed. Brent crude jumped 7.3% to just above $102 a barrel on concern a blockade will disrupt energy flows through the key waterway. Asian shares dropped 0.9%, while S&P 500 futures pared earlier losses to trade 0.8% lower as higher oil prices threatened to weigh on economic growth. Tech companies such as MediaTek Inc. showed resilience, supported by robust sales. The dollar, which has been the haven of choice since the Middle East conflict began, strengthened against all its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries fell and Japan’s 10-year yield rose to 2.49%, the highest since 1997 on inflation concerns. Trump’s escalation curbed appetite to build on last week’s ceasefire-driven gains in equities, prompting a more cautious tone across markets. Even so, the relatively modest pullback in stocks following the weekend’s developments suggests investors retain some guarded optimism that a resolution may still be reached and limit the broader impact of the conflict. The US will begin implementing a blockade of all maritime traffic entering and leaving Iranian ports on Monday at 10 a.m. New York time, the US Central Command said, following up on Trump’s announcement. US forces won’t impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports. Iran said it “won’t allow” the blockade to go ahead. Trump said the US will interdict any vessel that has paid a toll to Iran for safe passage through Hormuz and will clear mines in the strait. A blockade would halt the nearly two million barrels a day of Iranian oil that’s been passing through the waterway, further squeezing global supply and cutting off a vital lifeline for the Islamic Republic. Elsewhere, Hungary’s currency gained versus the euro and the dollar after Prime Minister Viktor Orban was ousted in a landslide victory for the pro-European opposition in Sunday’s election. The result is seen as the most bullish outcome, as it would help unblock access to billions of euros in European Union financing. In other corners of the market, Bitcoin edged lower to about $71,200. European natural gas prices surged in early Asia trading on Monday. Dutch Title Transfer Facility futures jumped as much as 18% to €51.30 a megawatt-hour. Gold slipped 0.6% to about $4,720 an ounce as higher oil prices fueled expectations interest rates will stay elevated, weighing on non-yielding assets such as bullion. Gauging how markets will react to headlines from the Middle East has been a fraught process since the conflict erupted at the end of February. Big swings have been common as the US and Iran postured for negotiating advantage. Some analysts said the scale of market reaction may be limited if investors take the view that the talks represent a negotiating tactic that will eventually lead to a solution for the seven-week conflict. Adding to the potential for turbulence, first-quarter earnings season is about to start in the US, with analysts projecting S&P 500 profits will rise about 12% from a year earlier, the weakest since the second quarter of 2025. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. kicks off the US reporting season on Monday. Investors are eager to hear what corporate leaders have to say about the mounting risks, which include hotter inflation as a result of the surge in oil, and the threat that consumers start to pull back. Data on Friday showed US consumer prices jumped the most since 2022, although the core measure was relatively tame, while consumer sentiment slumped. Against that backdrop, higher bond yields are starting to look appealing to some investors. Two-year Treasury yields, most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy expectations, are around 3.85%, up nearly half a percentage point since the war began, while yield premiums on Asian investment-grade dollar notes widened by the most in over a week.

Nikkei -0.77% Hang Seng -1.08% CSI +0.29% Shanghai +0.06% Shenzen +0.53%

Eur$ 1.1687 CNH 6.8317 CNY 6.8331 JPY 159.73 GBP 1.3402 CHF 0.7919 RUB 76.9738 TRY 44.7045 WTI$ 104.40 +8.15% Gold 4,720 -0.62% BTC 70,947 -0.57% ETH 2,192 -0.97%

S&P -0.71% Nasdaq -0.84% EuroStoxx -1.51% FTSE -0.57% Dax -1.57% SMI -0.99%

Macro :

- Trump Says US to Sever Key Iran Lifeline With Blockade of Strait

- US, Iran Officials Hold Direct Talks in Pakistan on Ending War

- Two Supertankers U-Turn in Hormuz as US-Iran Talks Break Down

- If Labour is serious about growth, it must open up the North Sea

- Saudi Arabia Says East-West Pipeline Restored to Full Capacity
- NASA Recovering Artemis Moon Crew After ‘Bullseye’ Landing

- Drone-Destroying Laser Doesn’t Pose Threat to Planes, FAA Says

- Anthropic AI Causing ‘Sense of Urgency’ at White House: Hassett

- Wrong-Way Bets on Oil Had a Star Trader Hundreds of Millions in the Hole -- WSJ

- Switzerland’s Zug becomes bolt-hole for Gulf-based wealth, Small Swiss town is welcoming individuals and companies seeking refuge from war in the Middle East - FT

- Kalshi Wins Reprieve From Arizona Criminal Case at CFTC’s Urging

Keep an eye on :

- ABBV US : Haisco Pharma Signs License Pact With AbbVie for Nav1.8 Project

- BABA US : Michael Burry Buys JD and Alibaba, Adds to Nvidia Puts

- AAL LN : Botswana’s President Courts Oman Amid De Beers’ Control Battle

- Anthropic IPO : Anthropic Offers Security Recommendations & Practical Tips

- AML LN : Aston Martin shares and bonds sink to record lows over cash crunch fears - FT

- BAMI LN : Banco BPM Says No Interest in MCC Unit Banca Del Mezzogiorno

- BNTX US : BioNTech, Duality Meet Mid-Stage Endometrial Cancer Trial Goal

- Colt CZ IPO : Gunmaker Colt CZ Announces Dual Listing on Amsterdam Exchange
- CSGP US : Third Point Gives Up Proxy Fight at CoStar, Sells Stake: Reuters

- EWI LN : Edinburgh Worldwide’s Tender Offer Resolution Not Passed

- EQT SS : PolyPeptide Is Said to Attract Takeover Interest From EQT, KKR

- RACE IM : Ferrari Completes First Tranche of EUR3.5 Billion Share Buyback

- GAM SW : GAM Holding AG announces proposed Board of Directors for election at

- GF SW : Georg Fischer Gets Contract Worth ~CHF100m From Brazil’s Sabesp

- GFL CN : GFL Said to Near Deal to Buy Secure Waste for Over $4.3 Billion

- GVS IM : GVS Starts Offer for Up to 23.3 Million Own Shares at €4.30/Shr

- KID NO : Kid ASA Reports 1Q Revenue of NOK 800.5 Million, Compared With FactSet Consensus Estimates of NOK 793.1 Million

- LHA GY : Lufthansa Faces More Strikes With Pilots Set for Stoppage

- NIO US : Founder William Li expressed confidence in 40-50% growth for FY deliveries - Chinese press

- NVDA US : Michael Burry Buys JD and Alibaba, Adds to Nvidia Puts

- Open AI IPO : OpenAI Identified Security Issue Involving Axios

- Open AI IPO : OpenAI Set to Fall Under EU’s DSA, Face Stricter Regulation: HB

- PGHN SW : Partners Group Says Fundraising Strong Despite Market Stress

- PFE US : FDA Warns Pfizer Over Misleading Adcetris Ads

- PIRC IM : Italy to Limit Number of Sinochem Directors on Pirelli Board

- RIO LN : Rio Is Said to Draw Interest for US Critical Mineral Assets

- RSGN SW : R&S Group "FY25 results - confirmed pre-released indications..."

- SAN FP : Sanofi, Regeneron’s Dupixent Gets EU Approval for CSU for Kids

- Space X IPO : Boaz Weinstein Scores Win After UK Trust Backs SpaceX Proposal

- SUN SW : Sulzer 1Q Orders CHF853M Vs. CHF1.02B Y/y

- TGS NO : TGS 1Q Contract Seismic Allocation 26%

- TIT IM : EU Clears €700m Telecom Italia Sparkle Unit Sale

- TSLA US : Tesla Says FSD Supervised Has Been Approved in the Netherlands

- TSLA US : Tesla’s Auto Margin Ex-Credit to Fall to Lowest in a Year: MS

- UNI SM : Unicaja Mulls Consumer Credit Tie-Up With WiZink: Confidential

- UCG IM : UniCredit Has No Plan to Return Russia License, Liquidate Unit

- VAR NO : Var Energi Prelim 1Q Avg Production 406,000 BOE/D

- DG FP : Vinci Record Cash Flow, Leverage Support Bond Resilience in 2026

- WISE LN : Wise 4Q Volume Meets Estimates

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 13th of April 2026

>>> Up

* ABB Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 67 Swiss francs

* Applied Materials PT Raised to $500 from $450 at Wolfe

* Bravida Price Target Raised to SEK 130 from SEK 113 by Danske Bank

* CoreWeave Raised to Outperform at Macquarie; PT $125

* Fluidra Raised to Buy at JB Capital Markets; PT 25.40 euros

* Instalco Price Target Raised to SEK 45 from SEK 40 by Danske Bank

* Kone Upgraded to Buy from Hold by Danske Bank

* Norske Skog Raised to Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 50 kroner

* Schneider Electric Raised to Overweight at Barclays

* Schindler Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 272 Swiss francs

* SKF Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 290 kronor

* Starbucks Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT $92

* T-Mobile Raised to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT $260

* Vaisala Price Target Raised to EUR 53 from EUR 51 by SEB

>>> Down

* ABB Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 76 Swiss francs

* AB Foods Cut to Underperform at RBC; PT 1,850 pence

* Austrian Post Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 30 euros

* Autoliv GDRs Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 1,125 kronor

* Avanza Cut to Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 405 kronor

* Bossard Cut to Hold at Research Partners; PT 183 Swiss francs

* Epiroc Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 265 kronor

* Essity Price Target Cut to SEK 301 from SEK 310 by SEB

* Industrivarden Cut to Sell at SEB Equities; PT 484 kronor
* Kering Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 320 euros

* Legrand Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 144 euros

* Microsoft PT Cut to $556 from $659 at BNP Paribas

* Nemetschek Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 56 euros

* Nokia Cut to Hold at Nordea

* Repsol Cut to Underweight at Banco Sabadell; PT 23.34 euros

* Rexel Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 29 euros

* Rotork Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 355 pence

* Sandvik Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 405 kronor

* SEB Price Target Cut to SEK 180 from SEK 195 by Nordea

* Verbund Downgraded to Underperform from Neutral by Bank of America

* Volvo Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 350 kronor

* WH Smith Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 650 pence

>>> Initiation

* Antofagasta Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil

* Arribatec Group ASA Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities

* Coherent Corp Rated New Buy at William O'Neil

* Credo Technology Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT $175

* NIBE Industrier Reinstated Outperform at BNP Paribas

* Oncoinvent ASA Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 70 kroner

* Tempus AI Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT $35
* UPM-Kymmene Rated New Buy at SB1 Markets; PT 38 euros

* Wartsila Reinstated Buy at William O'Neil

>>> Call
* Pareto Global Adds Autotrader Group PLC, Exits Compass Group

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

Equinor (DNQ TH) +5.4%
Aker BP (ARC TH) +4.2%
Var Energi (J4V TH) +3.9%
- Var Energi Prelim 1Q Avg Production 406,000 BOE/D
OMV (OMV TH) +3.6%
Repsol (REP TH) +2.5%
BAE (BSP TH) +2.3%
Eni (ENI TH) +1.8%
BP (BPE5 TH) +1.8%
K+S (SDF TH) +1.7%
- German Holdings Round-Up: Commerzbank, Nordex, Delivery Hero
Unilever (UNV0 TH) +1.5%
- EMEA Stocks Are Forming 52 Major Technical Chart Patterns
Nemetschek (NEM TH) -3.5%
- Nemetschek Cut to Sell at UBS; PT 56 euros
ACS (OCI1 TH) -3.6%
- Vinci Record Cash Flow, Leverage Support Bond Resilience in 2026
Rexel (E7V TH) -3.7%
- Rexel Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 29 euros
Bilfinger (GBF TH) -3.8%
AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -3.8%
IAG (INR TH) -4.1%
Aixtron (AIXA TH) -4.1%
Hochtief (HOT TH) -4.2%
Carnival Plc (POH1 TH) -4.3%
TUI (TUI1 TH) -4.5%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:

Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -2.3%
Infineon (IFX TH) -2.4%
Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) -2.4%
Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -2.7%
Commerzbank (CBK TH) -3.4%

MDAX:

K+S (SDF TH) +2.2%
Evonik (EVK TH) +1.4%
RTL (RRTL TH) +1.2%
Aumovio (AMV0 TH) +0.8%
Hensoldt (HAG TH) +0.7%
Aixtron (AIXA TH) -3.6%
Hochtief (HOT TH) -4%
Bilfinger (GBF TH) -4.1%
AUTO1 (AG1 TH) -4.5%
TUI (TUI1 TH) -4.7%

SDAX:

Verbio SE (VBK TH) +5.9%
Mutares (MUX TH) +0.4%
PNE AG (PNE3 TH) +0.3%
Suedzucker (SZU TH) +0.3%
Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +0.1%
ProSieben (PSM TH) -2.4%
PVA TePla (TPE TH) -2.5%
Siltronic (WAF TH) -2.5%
Norma (NOEJ TH) -2.7%
SUSS MicroTec (SMHN TH) -2.9%

>>> Q1 2026 EARNINGS MONITOR | WK 16 | 13-17 APR

◼ Q1 2026 EARNINGS MONITOR | WK 16 | 13-17 APR

══════════════════════════════════════════════════

MON 13 APR ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

GS US Goldman Sachs BMO | EPS $14.8e | Rev $15.1Be

FAST US Fastenal BMO | EPS $0.30e +15% YoY | Rev $2.2Be

TUE 14 APR ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

JPM US JPMorgan Chase BMO | EPS $4.62e | Rev $44.1Be

C US Citigroup BMO | EPS $1.85e | Rev $21.2Be

WFC US Wells Fargo BMO | EPS $1.24e | Rev $20.8Be

JNJ US Johnson & Johnson BMO | EPS $2.58e | Rev $22.7Be

BLK US BlackRock BMO | EPS $12.09e | Rev $6.5Be

WED 15 APR ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

ASML NA ASML Holding Pre-mkt CET | Rev €8.2-8.9Be | GM 51-53%

BAC US Bank of America BMO | EPS $0.83e | Rev $25.2Be

MS US Morgan Stanley BMO | EPS $2.27e +18% | Rev $15.8Be +12%

PNC US PNC Financial Services BMO | EPS $3.52e | Rev $5.5Be

MTB US M&T Bank BMO

PGR US Progressive BMO

THU 16 APR ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

2330 TT TSMC Pre-mkt Asia | Rev $34.6-35.8Be | +38% YoY

TSCO LN Tesco FY Results | Rev GBP36.3Be | Op profit GBP2.9-3.1Be

ABT US Abbott Laboratories BMO

BK US BNY Mellon BMO

CFG US Citizens Financial BMO

MMC US Marsh & McLennan BMO | EPS $3.22e +5.2% YoY

PEP US PepsiCo BMO | EPS $1.55e | Rev $18.9Be

PLD US Prologis BMO

TRV US Travelers BMO

USB US US Bancorp BMO

SCHW US Charles Schwab BMO

NFLX US Netflix AMC | Rev $12.17Be | OPM target 31.5%

FRI 17 APR ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

ERICB SS Ericsson 07:00 CEST | Networks margin guided 49-51%

TFC US Truist Financial BMO

FITB US Fifth Third BMO

STT US State Street BMO

══════════════════════════════════════════════════

NON-STANDARD REPORTERS (diff. exchange/fiscal cycle)

BALH SE Helvetia Baloise CHX annual results - TBC

300750 CH CATL A-share annual report window

600519 CH Kweichow Moutai A-share annual report window

002415 CH Hikvision A-share annual report window

762 HK China Unicom H-share reporting cycle

1098 HK Huadian New Energy H-share reporting cycle

S68 SP Singapore Exchange SGX Q3 FY results window

══════════════════════════════════════════════════

Source: Bloomberg, Company IR | NB: All times local market

>>> The Week Ahead - Monday 13th - Friday 17th of April

Earnings for the week

Abbott Laboratories, ASML Holding, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Blackrock, Charles Schwab, China Unicom, Citigroup, Citizens Financial Group, Contemporary Amperex Technology, Fastenal, Fifth Third, Goldman Sachs Group, Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology, Helvetia Baloise Holding, Huadian New Energy Group, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, Kweichow Moutai, M&T Bank, Marsh & McLennan, Morgan Stanley, Netflix, PepsiCo, PNC Financial Services Group, Progressive, Prologis, Singapore Exchange, State Street, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson, Tesco, Travelers, Truist Financial, US Bancorp, Wells Fargo.

Monday, April 13

ECONOMIC DATA:

India CPI
Israel central bank minutes
Japan money stock
Poland central bank minutes, trade
Russia trade
Turkey current account
US existing home sales

EVENTS:

Goldman Sachs kicks off the Wall Street quarterly earnings rush, with trading revenue and credit conditions in focus amid geopolitical tensions.
Spring meetings of International Monetary Fund and World Bank, along with various related events, are held in Washington. Through April 18.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran speaks at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century in Washington.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks at an event in Madrid.
BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the Trust Companies Conference.
RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser participates in a fireside chat at the Money Marketeers of New York University.
LVMH and Christian Dior sales figures may highlight tough times in the European luxury segment.
OPEC monthly oil market report.
The World Copper Conference, the top annual event focused on the industrial metal, is held in Santiago through April 15.
Markets in several Eastern European countries are closed for the Orthodox Easter holiday.
Pope Leo XIV begins a trip to Africa, with Algeria his first stop. Through April 23.

Tuesday, April 14

ECONOMIC DATA:

Australia Westpac consumer confidence, NAB business confidence
China trade
Japan industrial production
Mexico international reserves
Singapore GDP, monetary policy statement
Spain CPI
US PPI, NFIB small business optimism

EVENTS:

JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo earnings.
The IMF publishes its world economic outlook and global financial stability report.
ECB President Christine Lagarde and Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf speak at events in Washington. ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks at University of Virginia.
ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone makes pre-recorded remarks at Confcommercio forum in Rome
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks at Semafor World Economy in Washington.
Fed Governor Michael Barr along with regional Fed Presidents Tom Barkin, Susan Collins and Anna Paulson participate in a fireside chat on “Strengthening America’s Economy Through Rural Investment” at a Fed forum.
BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at Columbia Univerisity in New York. Rate-setter Catherine Mann speaks at the Aon Insights Series in London, and colleague Megan Greene speaks at the Atlantic Council in Washington.
Bank of Slovenia holds conference on investment challenges, with address by Governor Primoz Dolenc.
US Vice President JD Vance speaks at a Turning Point USA tour stop in Georgia.
The HSBC Global Investment Summit is held in Hong Kong through April 16.

Wednesday, April 15

ECONOMIC DATA:

Eurozone industrial production
France CPI
India trade
Israel CPI
Japan machinery orders
Philippines overseas remittances
Poland CPI
Saudi Arabia CPI
South Korea unemployment
US cross-border investment, Empire State manufacturing, Fed Beige Book

EVENTS:

Morgan Stanley, Bank of America earnings.
The IMF publishes its fiscal monitor, and Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva holds a press briefing.
Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speak at the IIF Global Outlook Forum in Washington.
Fed Governor Michael Barr speaks at the Just Economy conference in Washington.
ECB President Christine Lagarde gives a keynote speech at a conference in Washington focused on equal opportunity for women.
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Semafor World Economy and separately at an Atlantic Council event in Washington. Executive Board member Piero Cipollone speaks at two events in Washington.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks on an IIF panel in Washington with South African Central Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago and others.
ECB Governing Council member José Luis Escrivá, Swiss National Bank President Martin Schlegel and Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee speak at a Peterson Institute event in Washington.
Deadline to file 2025 US tax returns.

Thursday, April 16

ECONOMIC DATA:

Australia unemployment
Canada existing home sales
China GDP, retail sales, industrial production
Eurozone CPI
Israel GDP
Italy CPI
Netherlands unemployment
Switzerland central bank minutes, producer prices
UK industrial production, trade balance
US initial jobless claims, industrial production

EVENTS:

Netflix earnings.
G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meet in Washington.
The ECB publishes the account of its latest monetary policy meeting.
New York Fed President John Williams gives keynote remarks at the Metropolitan Club. Governor Stephen Miran participates in a conversation on global macroeconomics at the Washington Economic Festival.
RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter participates in a panel at IMF–World Bank spring meetings.
ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel speaks at a Peterson Institute event in Washington.
BOE rate-setter Alan Taylor participates in a panel hosted by the Peterson Institute for International Economics. ECB Governing Council members Martins Kazaks and Ollie Rehn and chief economist Philip Lane also speak.
ECB Governing Council members Martin Kocher and Dimitar Radev speak at an Atlantic Council event.
Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Petra Tschudin speaks at a money market event in Zurich.
Kering’s Capital Markets Day in Florence to discuss a new strategic plan for the parent of Gucci, Saint Laurent and other luxury brands.

Friday, April 17

ECONOMIC DATA:

Canada housing starts
Eurozone trade balance
Malaysia GDP, CPI
New Zealand food prices
Singapore trade

EVENTS:

The IMF’s international monetary and financial committee meets in Washington.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook at Auburn University. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin delivers a keynote address at the Citadel Directors Institute.
ECB Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch speaks in Washington.
Hong Kong Rugby Sevens kicks off and runs through April 19 at Kai Tak Sports Park.

SOVEREIGN RATING UPDATES:

Turkey, Belgium, Jordan: Credit Ratings Review for April 17

FT : The risks of Donald Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade plan

The risks of Donald Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade plan

Naval embargo designed to cut off Iran’s exports threatens to destabilise global energy markets

Donald Trump was in a Miami arena on Saturday night watching a live Ultimate Fighting Championship bout as his vice-president, JD Vance, announced there was no peace deal with Iran after marathon talks in Pakistan.

The world therefore had to wait until Sunday morning to hear the US president’s response — a naval blockade of the critical waterway, potentially seizing any vessels paying tolls to Tehran.

It was Trump’s latest attempt to change the dynamic of the Middle Eastern war which he launched in late February but he is struggling to exit, having underestimated Iran’s ability to choke off energy trade through the Strait of Hormuz.

On its surface, the naval embargo is intended to shrink Iran’s capacity to fund its defence by limiting the revenue it generates from oil exports. But such an operation risks destabilising global energy markets and triggering a new surge in oil prices. It also jeopardises a fragile two-week ceasefire agreed by the US and Iran last Tuesday.

“Closing the strait entirely will spike oil prices even more than they did before, and put more pressure on the US from the international community,” said Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, a Washington think-tank.

“It definitely shows how frustrated and at the end of his options the president feels,” she added.

Trump’s order of an embargo on the Strait of Hormuz reflects his hope that he can apply to Iran the model of his intervention in Venezuela, when the US seized then-president Nicolás Maduro in a military operation after a naval blockade of the Latin American nation.

“We’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like, and not people that they don’t like, or whatever it is,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday.

“You saw what we did with Venezuela. It’ll be something very similar to that, but at a higher level.”

Trump aides say the imposition of a naval embargo — set to begin at 10am eastern US time on Monday — was the consequence of Iranian intransigence in negotiations between the two countries since the ceasefire, and designed to put additional pressure on Tehran.

Specifically, free passage through the Strait of Hormuz was one of a series of red line demands that Iran failed to agree to in talks led by Vance in Pakistan on Saturday, a US official said. Others include the dismantling of Tehran’s uranium enrichment facilities, the retrieval of its enriched uranium stockpiles, and Iran’s funding of regional proxy groups.

After devising the blockade with Trump and his team, Vance is hopeful that Iran will be more willing to accept a deal meeting US demands, the US official said.

Some analysts supported the step. “It stops Iran’s exports, its revenues, is a counterpoint to their closing the Straits,” Dennis Ross, the former senior US diplomat and Middle East negotiator, wrote on X.

“They may attack Gulf oil facilities but it puts greater pressure on Iran. It also puts great pressure on China to pressure Iran,” he added.

“The ‘Open for All or Closed to All’ policy could rally the world as it reflects a commitment to keeping an international waterway open to nearly everyone’s benefit. It would not increase the damage and destruction of the war,” added Richard Haass, another former US diplomat, writing in his Substack.

But others were sceptical, such as Vali Nasr, a former US official and a professor at Johns Hopkins University. He said Trump’s threat to blockade the strait would not concern the Islamic republic in the short term, with Tehran calculating that a closure puts more pressure on the global economy than on Iran.

“This is fine by the Iranians, it prolongs the chokehold on the global economy,” he said. “And the Iranians could shut down [the] Bab el-Mandeb [a chokepoint off the coast of Yemen] and then the US will have to deal with that.”

From the war’s outset, Iran has made clear that one of its prime objectives, as it faces what it considers an existential battle for its survival, has been to raise the costs of the conflict for the US, its allies and the global economy.

“I don’t understand how blockading the strait is going to somehow push the Iranians into opening it. I don’t get the connection there,” Mark Warner, the Democratic senator from Virginia, told CNN on Sunday.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the UK-based Bourse & Bazaar Foundation think-tank, said Iran had already blockaded itself with limited access to oil revenues.

“A US blockade might squeeze Iranian oil out of the market, but the impact on the state budget will be secondary and will anyway pale in comparison to the costs that Iran was willing to sustain from air strikes. If this is a tactic to add pressure on Iran, it is an odd one,” Batmanghelidj said.

The US Central Command said in a statement that the blockade would be “enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman”.

Analysts have repeatedly cautioned against making comparisons to Maduro’s regime in Venezuela, pointing out that the Islamic republic has over nearly half a century established an entrenched bureaucracy and spent decades preparing for the type of asymmetrical warfare it is fighting, led by the ideologically motivated Revolutionary Guards.

Whereas in Venezuela, Trump was able to find a compliant successor to Maduro in Delcy Rodríguez, the new president, the remaining regime leaders in Iran after the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior figures have not been willing to cave in to US demands.

Trump’s naval blockade represents an abrupt shift from Washington’s strategy of allowing Iran to continue exporting oil as it has sought to calm energy markets. It has also tried to compensate for the production losses its Gulf neighbours have suffered as a result of the strait’s closure and Iranian attacks on their oil and gas facilities.

Iran has alternatives to bring in food imports and other goods, as it shares borders with 15 countries, including land routes to Iraq and Turkey in the west, Central Asian states and Russia in the north, and Afghanistan and Pakistan in the east.

Kavanagh said that a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would also pose some operational challenges and dilemmas that did not exist during the action against energy shipments to and from Venezuela.

“Let’s say that it’s a Gulf state or a French ship that’s going through and they did pay the toll,” she said. “What’s the US going to do? Seize an allied tanker? And let’s then, say that it’s a Chinese ship that paid the toll. Are we going to seize a Chinese tanker? And what are the Chinese going to do?”

FT : Luxury retailer Mytheresa has sights on Middle East growth despite conflict

Luxury retailer Mytheresa has sights on Middle East growth despite conflict

New CEO wants to increase investment given concentration of wealthy potential clients in the Gulf

Now is the time to plan investment to expand in the Middle East despite the current conflict, according to the new chief executive of luxury online retailer Mytheresa.

While Iranian missile strikes across Gulf countries, including the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have hit shopping and tourism and prompted some wealthy people to leave, Francis Belin said the attacks on previously safe havens such as Dubai had not dented his optimism about the region’s potential for the luxury retailer.

“What is happening now is very sad, but we are very long-term in the way we approach opportunities, so I think it is probably an area we should continue to [invest in],” Belin told the FT. “We are already quite successful in the Middle East. How we move it to the next chapter is on my mind.”

The Middle East already accounts for just under 10 per cent of Munich-based Mytheresa’s revenues. However, given the high concentration of wealthy clients in the Gulf, Belin wants to increase investment in marketing, personal shopping and events in the region in the coming years.

Belin started the role at Mytheresa in January after a long stint at auction house Christie’s in Asia and in senior roles at jewellery brands including Swarovski and Jaeger-LeCoultre.

“My best deal [at Christie’s] was to sign a lease for a new regional headquarters in The Henderson building in Hong Kong in 2021 when . . . business was stopping. I think it’s probably a good time to also start conversations in the Middle East,” Belin said.

Mytheresa, which sells products from about 250 luxury brands, from Prada to Brunello Cucinelli, experienced a few days of shipping disruption in the region at the start of the war between the US, Israel and Iran. Since then, however, it has been able to deliver orders to Gulf clients without issue, Belin said.

He takes up his role at a time of change and disruption in the industry. Over the past two years, a number of Mytheresa’s peers, both digital and bricks-and-mortar, have struggled. Luxury department store group Saks Global filed for bankruptcy this year, while online retail marketplaces Farfetch and Matchesfashion collapsed at the end of 2024.

Mytheresa is one of the few luxury retail platforms left standing, thanks to its selective wholesale buying model, wealthy client base and reliably increasing profitability. This contrasts with other digital peers, whose high overheads and lack of profits weighed on them as interest rates rose.

Mytheresa also invests heavily in elaborate events — such as a party aboard the late shipping tycoon Aristotle Onassis’ yacht in Monaco, lavish dinners in Saint-Tropez, pop-ups in Saint Moritz and Aspen — to build relationships with its high-spending clientele.

It has leveraged the situation to create an overarching online luxury retail group LuxExperience, formed after Mytheresa bought Richemont’s lossmaking Yoox Net-a-Porter online retail division last year. Michael Kliger, Mytheresa’s longtime chief executive, moved to lead the new group at the start of 2025, anointing Belin as his successor at the group’s flagship business.

Mytheresa reported net sales of €242.7mn in the quarter to the end of December, up 8.8 per cent year on year, and adjusted ebitda of €22.6mn, an increase of nearly a third year on year.

“You always feel like it’s been year after year . . . a company on a successful trajectory,” said Belin, who wants to expand sales in jewellery and menswear to balance Mytheresa’s traditional focus on women’s fashion and accessories.

Further investment in Asia, particularly China, will also be a focus for Belin, despite the depressed market for luxury goods there since the pandemic. Mytheresa said mainland China accounted for “a single-digit percentage” of its overall sales, but it was growing by double digits in some regions.

“I think it’s a question for us whether we want to start to invest more. My assumption is yes we will,” Belin said.

The ability to keep investing is tied to a business model that has helped Mytheresa outlast rivals. The company has gross margins of about 50 per cent, allowing it to absorb the high costs of marketing, wholesale inventory, logistics and frequent client events. It also focuses on wealthy repeat clients who spend tens of thousands of dollars a year on fashion and buy at full price. This has helped it secure partnerships with top luxury brands that can be reluctant to work with third-party retailers.

“We’re a wholesale business, so we operate with not the full margin on the product. Which means that . . . we can’t give discounts,” said Belin. “Some people look for discount, they spend a lot of money with discounts but we cannot. This is not us, this is not why brands work with us.”

Within the LuxExperience group, however, discount luxury site Yoox caters to shoppers looking for a deal.

As for the group’s other full-price luxury ecommerce sites, Net-a-Porter and Mr Porter, Belin said there was little risk of cannibalisation. “If you look at the top clients, which are so important to our business, we have around 10 per cent overlap,” he said, adding that product overlap is about 25 per cent with each retailer operating separate buying, personal shopping, communications and events teams.

“We’re very separate and we believe in our [buying] and they believe in their [buying] . . . And that’s very, very important in our strategy, to continue to be separate.”

FT : Sotheby’s offers to pay sellers interest as art market struggles

Sotheby’s offers to pay sellers interest as art market struggles

Patrick Drahi-owned auction house contends with heavy debt burden in shrinking market

Sotheby’s is offering sellers interest of 7 per cent to delay paying out their sale proceeds as the auction house grapples with a cash squeeze in a poor art market.

In mid-2025, Sotheby’s introduced an “extended settlement terms payments option”, according to three people familiar with the scheme.

One of the people said that the auction house had offered to pay a rate of 8 per cent following the sale of more than $30mn of property if the seller allowed Sotheby’s to hold on to some of their funds for at least six months. It has since reduced the rate on offer following cuts by the US Federal Reserve last year.

Sotheby’s had previously retained some clients’ money beyond the period specified in its terms and conditions, a second person familiar with the company said.

Franco-Israeli billionaire Patrick Drahi acquired the auction house in 2019 through a leveraged buyout, and Sotheby’s has had to contend with a heavy debt burden at a time when demand for fine art has been in decline.

The global art market shrank 16 per cent between 2022 and 2024, according to a report by Art Basel and UBS, before eking out growth of 4 per cent last year.

Sotheby’s annual pre-tax loss more than doubled to $248mn in 2024. Accounts for that year showed that it had more than $1bn of “client payables” outstanding — money it owes to clients — which was lower than $1.7bn at the end of 2023. Its total sales in 2025 were $7.1bn, up from $6bn the year before.

Drahi is known for his flair for financial engineering and has also used various methods to delay supplier payments at his troubled Altice telecoms empire.

Sotheby’s carries a junk credit rating due to its high debt load, with rating agency S&P warning in November that it could lower it further if the auction house is “unable to address its upcoming debt maturities in a timely fashion”.

The auction house had previously been delaying making payments to some clients because of poor cash flow at certain times of year, the second person familiar with Sotheby’s said.

“It was extremely common because of the extraordinary financial strain that the company was under in 2024 and 2025 for the company to routinely just hold client payments at the end of difficult quarters,” they said.

Monies due to clients then would sometimes be held over to the start of the next quarter, the person said. “Many clients who are wealthy wouldn’t notice this.”

Sotheby’s said the “extended settlement terms payment option” was “one of a number of innovations” that offered clients “greater optionality and financial flexibility”.

The company said: “Sotheby’s is in a particularly strong financial position having led the art market in 2025 . . . We operate in accordance with longstanding market and industry practices and offer clients a range of settlement options.”

Sotheby’s standard terms state that it will pay sellers 45 days after a sale, assuming the buyer has paid. Rival Christie’s pays out after 35 days.

One art adviser whose client sold a collection of dozens of items at Sotheby’s said their client received payment eight months later than they had anticipated.

The auction house’s terms said it would only pay the seller once it had received payment for every item in the collection, a position the adviser characterised as unusual.

A person familiar with Sotheby’s practices said that the payment terms were “a function of specific contract considerations and not the normal course of business”.

FT : Boss of state-controlled Poste Italiane defends €10bn bid for Telecom Itali

Boss of state-controlled Poste Italiane defends €10bn bid for Telecom Italia

Matteo Del Fante: ‘We have demonstrated that we are a market company’

Poste Italiane’s chief executive has defended the former postal monopoly’s €10bn bid for Telecom Italia after criticism that the deal would return the business to a state-backed national champion.

Poste last month offered to buy the telecoms group in a cash-and-share deal, having already amassed a 27.5 per cent stake that made it the largest shareholder.

Matteo Del Fante said Poste would be a good owner of Telecom Italia (TIM), which was privatised in 1997 and whose shares have more than doubled over the past year.

“Since we acquired the TIM stake the company outperformed . . . we are confident we deserve the same trust now that we have launched the takeover offer,” he said in an interview.

Poste’s bid has drawn criticism from some analysts and industry experts, who argue it amounts to a step back towards state control of large enterprises, years after both the post and telecoms groups were privatised.

“We have demonstrated that we are a market company,” said Del Fante.

A tie-up between the two groups would leave Rome with a diluted stake of just over 50 per cent in the combined entity.

“This deal would increase the group’s free float as the state’s stake in the merged entity falls from 65 per cent to 50 per cent and new shares are issued to TIM investors,” said Del Fante. “In that sense, it is a move towards the market.”

Since Telecom Italia’s privatisation, it has burned through chief executives as its equity value slumped under the weight of a vast debt pile. To reduce that debt burden, in 2022 it carved out its fixed-line network and sold it to KKR in a €22bn deal.

Its share price fell from €8 at its peak in 2000 to €0.25 at the beginning of 2025 before Poste began building its stake.

Poste Italiane, meanwhile, has been on an upward trajectory since it was partially privatised in 2015, with Rome retaining a 65 per cent stake. Its share price has tripled to €21 over the past decade.

During his nine-year tenure, Del Fante focused on transforming Poste from a postal business into a technology and services group.

Poste already owns Poste Mobile, a mobile business with about 5mn customers, which would be folded into the TIM brand after the deal. The combined group would overtake Vodafone-Fastweb as Italy’s largest operator after their merger.

Under the offer TIM shareholders would receive €0.167 in cash plus 0.0218 newly issued Poste shares for each TIM share tendered.

While some analysts have said Poste may have to sweeten its bid to win over TIM investors, Del Fante said his company’s offer — representing a 9 per cent premium to the pre-bid share price — was a good deal for shareholders.

“The offer is fair, we plan to start paying a dividend, something TIM shareholders have not received for five years,” Del Fante said.

Poste said it had paid €9bn in dividends over the past nine years and that it expected these to continue at a similar level. TIM shareholders would get a 2 per cent payment shortly after completion, followed by 4 per cent in 2027, rising to about 8 per cent in 2028, Del Fante said.

“If you own TIM today and accept the offer, you continue to share in the upside . . . The point is not just the value we offer upfront, but the chance to benefit from future synergies and a stronger growth trajectory under Poste,” he said.

Del Fante expects the deal to close by September. The combined group would become Italy’s largest employer, with more than 150,000 staff.

“Poste has historically been a consumer business, TIM is stronger with corporate clients and public administration. That would broaden our customer base and strengthen our technological offering,” said Del Fante.