TechCrunch : ‘It’s dumb to IPO this year’: Databricks CEO explains why he’s wait

‘It’s dumb to IPO this year’: Databricks CEO explains why he’s waiting to go public

Databricks just closed one of the largest funding rounds ever, raising a staggering $10 billion in fresh capital. Naturally, technology investors were quick to ask what this means for the company’s highly anticipated IPO. During an event in San Francisco on Tuesday night, Databricks CEO Ali Ghodsi explained why he’s waiting until at least 2025 to go public.

“This year was an election year. We wanted to get some stability – people are worried about interest rates, inflation… So we said look, it’s dumb to IPO this year, so we’re definitely going to wait,” said Ghodsi during an interview with Dan Primack during the Axios AI Summit. “The earliest theoretical possibility of an IPO would be next year, and then there’s lock-up periods, so it would just be too long of a period for employees to get liquidity.”

Databricks is using this “Series J” to let early employees cash out and continue growing. While 2024 was uncertain in many ways, the IPOs of ServiceTitan, Reddit, and other companies have largely been successful.

But why risk it when you can raise as much money as Databricks?

Ghodsi said this latest round could have been nearly double the amount it just closed. We knew investors were clamoring to get in, but the craze caused Databricks to raise its share price. The data analytics company started out trying to raise $3 billion to $4 billion in this round, according to Ghodsi, but he says that press reports about their fundraising efforts drove interest through roof.

“I saw this Excel sheet where they keep a tally of all the people that want to invest. It was $19 billion of interest, and I almost fell off the chair,” said Ghodsi. “And we hadn’t even talked to everybody. I was like, ‘Oh my God, that’s a huge amount of numbers.’ So then we actually moved the price up.”

Even after the impressive fundraise, Ghodsi isn’t ruling out a Databricks IPO in 2025. However, he said it could be 2026 as well. He said it’s far less important to go public than it was 10 to 15 years ago, as this record-breaking round indicates, but it’s still something the company wants to do. That said, Ghodsi isn’t trying to squeeze in an IPO before the “AI bubble,” as he called it, bursts.

“I mean, it’s peak AI bubble. It doesn’t take a genius to know that a company with five people which has no product, no innovation, no IP – just recent grads – [is not] worth hundreds of millions, sometimes billions,” said Ghodsi. “You get billion-dollar valuations on these startups that have nothing – that’s a bubble.”

The Databricks CEO didn’t clarify what startups he was talking about, but we’ve certainly seen a lot of AI unicorns this year. None of this seems to worry Ghodsi, however, who says his company and its valuation can stand the test of time. He thinks his company has already won out its first major battle with another data analytics startup, Snowflake.

“We had a program called ‘SnowMelt,’” said Ghodsi, confirming reports of an initiative within Databricks to steal business from Snowflake. “We were going after Snowflake and we demonized them, but that’s behind us.”

That effort to demonize Snowflake came at a hefty price, reportedly causing Databricks to pay $2 billion to acquire a tiny startup called Tabular. Snowflake also reportedly wanted to buy Tabular, even though the company was only doing $1 million in annual recurring revenue at the time.

Now, Databricks is chasing bigger competitors with products that rival enterprise giants like Salesforce and Microsoft. Ghodsi says data and AI will continue to play a slightly more important role in people’s lives every year, and he thinks his company is well-positioned to fill that niche.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of December 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Alfa Laval Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 570 kronor
* Allianz Raised to Outperform at Bernstein (+)
* AXA Raised to Outperform at Bernstein (+)
* IAG Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* EFG International Raised to Buy at UBS (+)
* Etablissements Maurel et Prom SA Raised to Buy at CIC (+)
* Grenergy Renovables Raised to Buy at Alantra Equities (+)
* Just Group PT Raised to 219 pence at Panmure Liberum
* Kemira Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 23 euros
* MSCI Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $723
* Nokia Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 5.20 euros (+)

>>> Down
* DFDS Cut to Hold at Carnegie; PT 173 kroner (+)
* Electronic Arts Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $167
* Exclusive Networks Cut to Neutral at Bryan Garnier (+)
* Generali Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein (+)
* OSB Group Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 414 pence
* Rivian Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $16
* Tesla Cut to Sell at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $364.44
* Ubisoft Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 13 euros

>>> Initiation
* Canal+ Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 280 pence
* Halma Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 3,500 pence
* Havas Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 2.15 euros
* Quadient Rated New Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 29 euros (+)
* Solstad Reinstated Buy at Fearnley; PT 63 kroner (+)
* Tekova Rated New Reduce at Inderes; PT 95 euro cents
* VAT Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT 363 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Alcon Named Top Pick at Needham on Promising Lineup of Launches
* Halma New Overweight at Oxcap, Growth Upside Not Captured
* Kemira’s Pricing Power Prompts SEB Equities to Upgrade to Buy (+)
* Just Group Price Target Lifted to Street-High at Panmure Liberum (+)
* Renault to Benefit From Possible Honda-Nissan Deal: Jefferies
* Visa Top Payments Pick at Morgan Stanley, Sector Turning Corner

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Renault (RNL TH) +4.7%
    • Honda Explores Nissan Merger With Foxconn Also in Hunt for Stake
  • Teleperformance (RCF TH) +1.8%
  • Var Energi (J4V TH) +1%
  • Dassault Systemes (DSYA TH) -0.8%
  • Generali (ASG TH) -0.8%
    • Generali Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
  • Iberdrola (IBE1 TH) -0.8%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) -1%
  • Maersk (DP4B TH) -1%
  • Freenet (FNTN TH) -1%
  • Philips (PHI1 TH) -1.1%
  • Orsted (D2G TH) -1.5%
    • Orsted Sells Shares in US Solar & Battery Projects for $572m

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • No major mover
MDAX:
  • Stabilus (STM TH) +2.6%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.4%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.3%
  • Redcare Pharmacy NV (RDC TH) -3%
    • Handelsblatt: Drugstore chain wants to start its own online pharmacy
SDAX:
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +7.3%
    • Kontron Gets Defense Order Worth Around €165M
  • Ceconomy (CEC TH) +6.7%
    • Ceconomy FY Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co KGaa (NCH2 TH) +2.7%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +1.4%
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +1.3%
  • PNE AG (PNE3 TH) -1.3%
  • Adesso SE (ADN1 TH) -1.6%

>>> What to look at today - 18th of December 2024

Asian shares drifted higher in range-bound trade, as investors braced for the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of the year. A gauge of regional stocks rose 0.3% after a three-day loss, with gains in Hong Kong and mainland China offsetting declines in Japan and Australia. US futures ticked higher after both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 shed 0.4% Tuesday. Shares of Nissan Motor Co. jumped as much as 24%, the most since at least 1974, on news that the ailing carmaker is exploring a possible merger with Honda Motor Co. The latter’s stock dropped. Treasuries rose slightly while Bloomberg’s dollar gauge was little changed. The yen turned steady ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy decision Thursday. While the Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points on Wednesday, the focus is on its outlook for next year given Donald Trump’s proposed policies that may rekindle inflation. The central bank’s meeting also comes as US economic data showed a mixed picture, with retail sales increasing at a firm pace and industrial production unexpectedly declining. Bank of America Corp. sees the Fed lowering interest rates to the 3.75% level — or three more cuts from where they are currently, Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said on Bloomberg Television. Back in Asia, a gauge of Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech stocks rose as much as 2.3%, shrugging off news that the US is set to initiate a trade investigation into the country’s semiconductors in the coming days. The onshore CSI 300 Index gained 0.8%, after President Xi Jinping urged officials to “scientifically” plan economic and social development work for 2025 and seek a good start for the new year.  Still in China, longer-dated government debt fell as a media report on the central bank’s discussions about risks for financial institutions renewed concerns over authorities’ pushback against a relentless bond rally. In corporate news, Vishal Mega Mart Ltd.’s shares surged in their Mumbai debut on Wednesday after raising $944 million in India’s last major new listing of the year. Memory-chip maker Kioxia Holdings Corp. soared 12% in its debut on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on Wednesday, underscoring strong investor demand for new shares in Japan. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s central bank is scheduled to announce its policy decision later Wednesday, after the nation’s anti-graft agency searched its headquarters as part of a probe into the monetary authority’s use of corporate social responsibility funds. Japan’s exports posted another gain in November as the yen’s weakness helped exporters. This comes as the BOJ is set to discuss whether or not a rate hike is warranted on Thursday, with views from officials suggesting a lean toward a hold amid growing speculation of a January move. In currency markets, the Canadian dollar slid to its lowest level since March 2020. Brazil took extraordinary measures to stem a collapse in the real, selling over $3 billion in local markets. Bitcoin took a breather after scaling $108,000 for the first time, with traders eyeing the $110,000 price level.  Over in the commodities space, oil edged higher after a two-day drop as an industry report signaled a sizable drawdown in US commercial crude inventories. Gold was flat. US After Hours WOR +14.2% pops on Q2 earnings beat; HEI -6.2% falls following quarterly results.

Nikkei -0.72% Hang Seng +0.78% CSI +0.40% Shanghai +0.48% Shenzen +0.32%

Eur$ 1.0506 CNH 7.2897 CNY 7.2847 JPY 153.46 GBP 1.2704 CHF 0.8924 RUB 104.5568 TRY 35.0150 WTI$ 70.12 +0.06% Gold 2,647 BTC 103,750 -2.52% ETH 3,840 -2.34%

S&P +0.12% Nasdaq +0.06% EuroStoxx +0.04% FTSE +0.02% Dax -0.10% SMI -0.27%

Macro :
- Crypto and Rates to Drive US Convertible Debt Growth in 2025
- Chinese Chip Stocks May Fall After US Plans Semiconductor Probe

Keep an eye on :
- ADP FP : ADP Nov. Passenger Traffic +10.1%
- AIR FP : Eutelsat Selects Airbus for OneWeb Low Earth Orbit Extension
- AIR FP : DAE Gets $201M in Settlements With Insurers Over Russia Leases
- AKZA NA : Akzo Nobel India Attracts 3 Possible Stake Bidders: Mint
- ALC SW : Alcon Named Top Pick at Needham on Promising Lineup of Launches
- ANTO LN : *BHP, ANTOFAGASTA, ALBEMARLE REACH DEAL TO REPAIR CHILE AQUIFER
- ATS AV : AT&S Cuts FY 2026/27 Revenue Forecast
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca May See Sales Dip in China After Wang’s Arrest: FT
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole Downgraded by Moody’s on France Cut
- BPM IM : Banco BPM CEO Says UniCredit Bid Doesn’t Offer Premium
- BVI FP : Bureau Veritas Enters CAC 40 Index as Vivendi Drops Out
- CABK SM : Caixabank Total & Sub Mrel Requirement  Set at 21.23% of RWA
- CEC GY : Ceconomy FY Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole Picks Olivier Gavalda to Replace CEO Brassac
- CTT PL : CTT Agrees to Buy Spanish Logistics Company Cacesa for €104m
- DAE SW ; Datwyler Launches Program to Boost Rev., Profitability Growth
- ETL FP : Eutelsat Selects Airbus for OneWeb Low Earth Orbit Extension
- FUR NA : Fugro Gets New €400M Financing on Improved Terms
- GIMB BB : Gimv Sells Majority Stake in Köberl Group to B+N; No Terms
- GRE SM : Grenergy to Sell Oasis de Atacama Project Phases 1-3 for $962m
- HNSA SS : Hansa Biopharma Announces ‘Positive’ Phase 2 Imlifidase Results
- KER FP : Kering Mulls Real Estate Asset Spinoff Worth Up to €4b: Sole
- KINVB SS : Swedish Investor Kinnevik Gets Tougher With Its Tech Startups
- 285A JP : Chipmaker Kioxia Surges 12% in Tokyo Debut After Jumbo IPO (2)
- KTN GY : Kontron Gets Defense Order Worth Around €165M
- MAIRE IM : Maire Signs Pact for JV Between Nextchem Unit and Newcleo
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi Says Five Independent Directors Resigned
- MTX GY : MTU Aero Names Johannes Bussmann as CEO to Replace Wagner
- NEOEN FP : Australia Commits A$100M to Neoen for Battery Projects
- 7201 JP : Honda, Nissan to Start Talks on Possible Merger, Nikkei Says (3)
- 7201 JP : Honda Explores Nissan Merger With Foxconn Also in Hunt for Stake
- 7201 JP: Foxconn Said to Have Approached Nissan to Take Controlling Stake
- 7201 JP : Hon Hai Made Buyout Proposal to Nissan, Diamond Says (1)
- OMV AV : OMV Discontinues Sale of E&P Business in New Zealand
- PKTM AV : Pierer Mobility in Talks With Potential Investors
- PROX BB : Proximus Forms Proximus Global Unit; Assigns it ~€3.1B Valuation
- RECSI NO : REC Silicon Fails Moses Lake Plant Qualification Test
- RNO FP : Stellantis Says It Has No Plans to Merge With Rival Renault
- RNO FP : Renault to Benefit From Possible Honda-Nissan Deal: Jefferies
- 006400 KS : US Finalizes $7.54B Loan for Samsung SDI-Stellantis Battery Hub
- TE FP : TechnipFMC Wins Contract for Shell Development in Nigeria
- TEP FP : Salesforce Launches AI Agent That Handles Complex Questions - The Information
- TSLA US : Tesla’s China Factory Head Song Gang Set to Depart This Week
- DG FP : Vinci Nov. Passenger Traffic +8.8%
- VIV FP : Bureau Veritas Enters CAC 40 Index as Vivendi Drops Out
- VU FP : VusionGroup Gets Contract From Fresh Market in US

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 18th of December 2024

>>> Up
* Alfa Laval Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 570 kronor
* IAG Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Just Group PT Raised to 219 pence at Panmure Liberum
* Kemira Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 23 euros
* MSCI Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $723

>>> Down
* Electronic Arts Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $167
* OSB Group Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 414 pence
* Rivian Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT $16
* Tesla Cut to Sell at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $364.44
* Ubisoft Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 13 euros

>>> Initiation
* Canal+ Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 280 pence
* Halma Rated New Overweight at Oxcap; PT 3,500 pence
* Havas Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 2.15 euros
* Tekova Rated New Reduce at Inderes; PT 95 euro cents
* VAT Rated New Neutral at Goldman; PT 363 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Alcon Named Top Pick at Needham on Promising Lineup of Launches
* Halma New Overweight at Oxcap, Growth Upside Not Captured
* Renault to Benefit From Possible Honda-Nissan Deal: Jefferies
* Visa Top Payments Pick at Morgan Stanley, Sector Turning Corner

WSJ : Kioxia Shares Rise in Trading Debut After $800 Million IPO

Kioxia Shares Rise in Trading Debut After $800 Million IPO
The company’s debut follows several large public offerings in Japan this fall

Kioxia Holdings’ shares rose in their trading debut following a $800 million initial public offering, as the memory-chip maker seeks to raise capital to meet growing demand for chips used in artificial intelligence and data centers.

Shares were recently at 1,522 yen, equivalent to $9.92, or 4.6% higher than the offering price. Shares briefly rose as much as 6.7% earlier Wednesday after opening 1.0% lower.

The Japanese chip maker issued new shares while two of its largest shareholders—Bain Capital and Toshiba Corp.—sold part of their stakes.

Kioxia makes NAND flash-memory chips used in smartphones, computer servers and other devices. The company expects growth in the flash-memory market, driven by demand for AI applications and data centers.

Formerly part of Toshiba and known as Toshiba Memory, Kioxia was acquired in 2018 by a group led by Bain Capital for around $18 billion. Toshiba retained a 40% stake in the chip business, which was renamed Kioxia the following year.

Kioxia’s debut follows several large public offerings in Japan this fall and comes after the market benchmark Nikkei Stock Average climbed to record highs earlier this year, driven by stronger corporate earnings and a weak yen.

In October, Tokyo Metro raised about $2.31 billion in Japan’s biggest IPO in nearly six years, while Carlyle Group-backed Rigaku Holdings raised about $850 million that same month.

WWD : Puig and Charlotte Tilbury Extend Partnership

Puig and Charlotte Tilbury Extend Partnership
The Spanish beauty brand will assume full ownership of the makeup and skin care label by the start of 2031.

PARIS — Puig and Charlotte Tilbury have extended their partnership, whereby the Spanish beauty and fashion company will progressively assume full ownership of the label by the start of 2031.

Puig acquired a majority stake in Charlotte Tilbury Ltd., a brand with a large digital footprint, in 2020 in a deal valued at an estimated 1.2 billon pounds. The namesake makeup artist meantime has maintained a minority share in her color cosmetics and skin care brand.

Since Puig’s acquisition, Charlotte Tilbury Ltd. has more than tripled its net sales, according to Puig in a statement Tuesday. Puig said Charlotte Tilbury enlarged the group’s portfolio of brands and helped make the company the fastest-growing multibrand beauty player.

“The agreement includes call and put options exercisable at different periods between 2026 and 2031 and valued at a multiple of key financial metrics of the Charlotte Tilbury business,” Puig said in a statement, which added that Tilbury will continue to have an active role in driving the brand’s business.

Charlotte Tilbury is currently ranked number one among makeup brands in the U.K. and the first beauty brand globally for influencer advocacy, despite its highly selective distribution, according to Puig.

“In 2020, we established a partnership that has been pivotal in shaping our success,” said Tilbury, who serves as chairman, chief creative officer and founder of Charlotte Tilbury Ltd. “I am fully convinced of the value and potential that is still to be created and captured in the upcoming years by Charlotte Tilbury Ltd.

“Continuing this collaboration with my team and Puig feels like a natural progression, driven by the same innovation, vision and ambition that have defined this iconic brand over the years,” she continued. “This extended partnership is a significant step forward, enabling us to further grow and solidify the brand’s position as a leader in the world of beauty.”

Marc Puig, chairman and chief executive officer of Puig, said: “Charlotte has a unique, pioneering vision, differentiated from other makeup artist brands, and was already redefining the future of makeup and skin care when we first started to work together in 2020.”

On Jan. 1, 2021, Puig reorganized its business structure, establishing three divisions: Beauty and Fashion, Charlotte Tilbury and Derma.

When Puig released its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 29, it said the makeup category had in the period returned to positive growth territory.

“The sell-out for the largest brand within makeup, Charlotte Tilbury, remains strong with double-digit growth in its largest markets, EMEA and the Americas,” the company said.

In the fourth quarter, the segment’s growth was expected to face a tougher comparison because of the pipeline sell-in related to the entry of Charlotte Tilbury into Ulta at the end of 2023.

Puig’s 11.6 percent like-for-like sales gains to 1.26 billion euros in the three-month period ended Sept. 30 beat market expectations. The Barcelona-based company owns brands such as Jean Paul Gaultier, Rabanne, Carolina Herrera, Dries Van Noten and Byredo.

WWD : Simon Malls Copresident Reveals Why Foot Traffic Is Increasing

Simon Malls Copresident Reveals Why Foot Traffic Is Increasing
Eric Sadi, copresident of Simon's mall properties, details how the company's shopping centers have increased their power to draw shoppers.

Not long ago malls were thought to be a dying breed, succumbing to e-commerce, Amazon and the oversaturation of retail square footage — but recent traffic figures at Simon Properties tell a different story.

Following a third-quarter report listing gains in funds from operations, occupancy and rents, Simon touted a 6.4 percent year-over-year increase in portfolio traffic on Black Friday weekend, with a 7.1 percent gain at Simon’s malls.

Executives at the real estate investment trust say they’ve been seeing traffic increases for awhile and that there’s more to it than just enthusiastic holiday season turnouts and Americans wanting to get out of the house more often since the pandemic ended.

“The main thing is that years ago we decided to look at each of our properties and create a unique strategy to merchandise and densify each, and to really fit into the community as opposed to maintaining a one-size-fits-all approach,” said Eric Sadi, copresident of Simon malls platform, in an interview. “That meant in some properties adding residential as a part of a larger redevelopment of a department store, adding a significant amount of food and beverage, and figuring out which brands are needed to create the right mix assorted specifically to an individual market,” Sadi said.

Simon also began investing more in the “experiential,” Sadi said, citing family and kids play areas, mommy and me yoga and music performances. “We have a lot of programming at the mall level. They’re unique [marketing] strategies by market. Santa activations, community events, new restaurants and entertainment are all reasons to get people out to shop,” Sadi said.

“I do think a lot of malls in America started to look like each other,” he said. “There has been a lack of newness in a lot of the malls out there, but ours have a uniqueness to them and the biggest regional draws. We are really focused on investing in creating unique environments.”

There’s another reason why the traffic is there: Simon malls are accessible. It’s a portfolio composed of “good real estate off the main highways,” Sadi said.

Investing in Redevelopments
Sadi said Simon has committed $1.3 billion for major redevelopments over the next few years including Brea Mall in Brea, Calif., where construction is underway for new retail and dining options, a Life Time athletic club and luxury apartments. The Southdale Center in Edina, Minn., is undergoing a multiyear “complete transformation” creating a luxury wing scheduled to open in 2025, and adding dining and entertainment venues and luxury apartments.

The Briarwood Mall in Ann Arbor, Mich., is being redeveloped with residential units, additional retail and community-driven, mixed-use offerings, including a Harvest Market restaurant and grocery offering locally sourced products. Northgate Station in Seattle is in the process of adding luxury residential units and recently broke ground on its first on-property hotel, Residence Inn by Marriott. It’s set to open in spring 2025. And the Tacoma Mall in Tacoma, Wash., is adding new restaurants and retail, and “The Village,” an expansion with new retailers, cafes and restaurants with outdoor dining terraces.


While Simon’s traffic gains can be attributed to how the addition of new brands, services, entertainment concepts, housing and food and beverage transforming several of their properties into greater mixed-use destinations, macro and industry trends are also factors. For one, consumers this year have been spending at levels higher than expected despite inflation. Retailers promoted early Black Friday deals well before the actual day and stimulated traffic at shopping centers through the fall. Either these promotions have done their trick or the willingness to shop reflects a consumer base willing to readily open their wallets. In addition, Americans apparently to want to socialize more in the aftermath of the pandemic. One way to do that is to meet friends and family in the mall for a movie, a restaurant, for shopping or to meet Santa. In addition, retailer’s push to offer buy online, pickup in store options has brought more people into the stores and malls.

According to Placer.ai, a provider of location analytics and traffic counts, all mall formats experienced year-over-year visit growth in November, with indoor malls, open-air shopping centers and outlet malls seeing foot traffic increases of 6.4 percent, 4.8 percent, and 3.8 percent, respectively.

“While much of the November boost is likely due to the malls’ strong Black Friday performance, foot traffic data indicates that early deals also drove visits before the big day,” Placer.ai indicated in a statement. “Comparing daily visits during the week before Black Friday to visits during the equivalent days in 2023 reveals that malls received more pre-Black Friday mall visits this year than in 2023.” Placer.ai analyzes data from 100 top-tier indoor malls, 100 open-air shopping centers and 100 outlet malls across the country, in both urban and suburban areas. Placer.ai says it leverages a panel of tens of millions of devices and utilizes machine learning to make estimations of shopping visits across the country.

As copresident of Simon’s mall platform, Sadi oversees about 100 properties including regional enclosed malls such as Roosevelt Field mall in Garden City, N.Y., and The Galleria in Houston, as well as lifestyle centers such as The Domain in Austin, Tex., and open-air centers such as The Falls in Miami. Simon’s Premium Outlets business is managed separately.

The Simon agenda involves adding “local flair” to its centers with specialty retailers. For example, Wilkes Bashford, a San Francisco designer store, opened last month at the Stanford Shopping Center in Palo Alto, Calif. Milton’s, a local family-owned menswear store in Massachusetts, opened stores at Simon’s Burlington Mall and South Shore Plaza in the last few years. And Southdale Center in 2023 brought in Kowalski’s, an upscale local grocer that filled the first floor space occupied by a former Herberger’s department store.

“Differentiation by localization is critical,” Sadi said. “We really like to have our leasing folks in the market, either living in or visiting a market almost on a weekly basis,” Sadi said. “We need to have a hand in the market and make sure that our sales teams are in the market, visiting and communicating.”

A Busy Year Ahead
Sadi said 2025 will be a “really busy year. We’ve got a lot of store openings coming in. We’re going to see a lot of new brands, which are what Gen Z and mom and dad want. We’ve got a dozen with just five or six stores that want to be 100-unit chains. Our biggest focus is to insure we have the newest brands coming in.”

Sadi cited Skims, the brand co-founded by Kim Kardashian, which has locations in two Simon malls, Lenox Square in Atlanta and The Galleria in Houston, as well as Garage, Mango, Camp and Lululemon. Additionally, Princess Polly, Edikted, Reformation and Rowan are already open in Simon centers or under construction, and Simon sees potential for more penetration into the portfolio for the future.

Asked what demographic is most responsible for the lift in shopper traffic, Sadi said: “We’re seeing it from all ages. Our properties are pretty broad as to who they serve.”

But he added that Gen Z is “a big growth consumer for us throughout our portfolio. These younger consumers have some dollars and want to hang out with their friends. Sephora, Lululemon, Apple and Vuori are brands they strive to be a part of.”

Simon’s current marketing campaign, dubbed “Meet Me @ The Mall,” blends ‘80s and ‘90s nostalgia with videos and ads depicting Gen Zers meeting up in the mall, taking selfies, applying cosmetics and trying on clothes as their Millennial or Gen X parents watch on. While there are no set definition for each generation, members of Gen Z are in their tweens to mid-20s and were born roughly between 1997 and 2012. Millennials were born in the early 1980s to the mid-1990s. Meet Me at The Mall, said Sadi, “really speaks to that younger Gen Z consumer. They want to be out with their friends at the mall. The mall is pretty cool right now. It’s in a really great place right now.”

So is Simon’s overall business.

Limited availability of good real estate has helped Simon to keep rents and occupancy levels high. And various redevelopment efforts will support long-term growth.

Simon — which is considered the nation’s largest owner and operator of shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations — is also demonstrating it wants to be a bigger player in the e-commerce world. This year, the company revamped its e-commerce website for a much broader selection of sale-priced items, and changed the name of its website to ShopSimon, replacing the Shop Premium Outlets name. The ShopSimon digital marketplace includes on-sale and discounted merchandise, while continuing to offer outlet products from brands. The old website offered only products from Simon’s network of outlets around the country.

Officials from Simon described ShopSimon as providing “a single, comprehensive source of premium and luxury sale-priced products” offering hundreds of brands including American Eagle, Cole Haan, Adidas, Etro, Hugo Boss, MCM, Puma, Steve Madden and Tod’s. Officials emphasize that ShopSimon enables brands to get more “eyeballs” on discounted and marked-down merchandise, and opens up space on their selling floors and on their websites to display a greater amount of fresh, full-price merchandise.

The business is not without concerns, however. Consumers continue to increase shopping via the e-commerce channel, in particular by their mobile devices, because of the convenience factor and because they are already very attached to their cell phones.

Continued uncertainties about the macro economic environment and the spectre of tariffs are also a concern across the fashion industry.

In the past few years, outlet centers, off-price and value retailers have been generating greater traffic and outperforming traditional, full-price and upscale retail destinations, but that’s where Simon executives see change.

Black Friday Rush
“On Black Friday and throughout the weekend, we saw even more evidence of what we already knew: Malls are thriving,” said David Simon, chairman, chief executive officer and president of Simon, last month. “Popular brands throughout our portfolio reported double-digit sales increases over the weekend compared to last year.…We look forward to a continued strong holiday season.”

“There used to be 40 million square feet of retail real estate built every year,” said Simon, on a call with analysts. “Now there’s essentially less than a few million here and there. And then there’s been obsolescence, too, which makes the supply shrink as well,” which adds to the demand for space at Simon properties. “The importance of brick-and-mortar has never been higher. Don’t get me wrong, e-commerce is critically important, but all of this stuff about e-commerce, cost of customer acquisition, returns, stickiness, etc., it all continues to be a challenge. If you’ve looked at the [pure online] marketplaces, they run into problems, so they really need to be connected to a brick-and-mortar for survivability. So all of those things are pointing to a positive picture.”

Sadi said Simon measures traffic in different ways, including using Wi-Fi beacons, traffic counters and cameras providing data on the number of people entering and exiting their properties.

“We’re not into more complicated measures of demographics. Traffic is one thing, but really the proof in the pudding is in sales,” Sadi said. “I have spoken to a bunch of retailers and have heard nothing but high single digit or double digit increases from Black Friday — at least a dozen.”

Asked how significant Black Friday is considering all the early Black Friday promotions triggered by retailers before the actual day, Sadi answered: “I think instead of the visuals of 100,000 people lined up trampling to get into the mall, what we have now is an orderly process [on Black Friday]. It is still a pretty significant experience. It’s still very relevant. The proof is in the numbers this year and the fact that a lot of retailers were doing unique things this year. Retailers have gotten more promotional, but their goal is to the sell more at less promotional pricing except for the key holiday periods.”

Nonstop promoting, “desensitizes consumers as to what a sale is,” he said.

Sadi added that retailers are generally strategic in their price promoting, “not margin degrading. The salient point is that more people showed up this year. Yes, Thanksgiving was later [this year], but at the end of the day, the shopping was there. The bodies were there. A lot of key items were looked for and found. Having very good traffic on Black Friday tells me this consumer is out there and they are still spending.That bodes much better for having a good holiday.”

Malls, he concluded, “are more than just about walking in and buying a new skirt of sport coat. They’re doing more than just traditional soft goods transactions.”

FT : Liquidity risks in markets are not intractable

Liquidity risks in markets are not intractable
With today’s big data tools, conditions can be anticipated and actively managed

Financial markets promise to be one thing but often end up delivering something quite different.

When an asset is listed on a stock market it should be tradable without a discount. Prices of securities appear in real time on terminals but they are only valid if you can trade at them. Increasingly, you often cannot. 

The villain of the piece? Liquidity. Or rather the lack of it when you need it most. We are seeing liquidity “shocks” that are more powerful than before, and sharper. Amundi research has found the impact of trading $50mn of an equity, where that trade is within 10 per cent of the daily volume, has been doubling during episodes of stress since 2021 and quadrupled on certain days during the Covid pandemic.

The change is similar to hurricanes in the US — where the frequency is the same, but the force is greater — and damage correspondingly worse. Remember the UK gilt markets crisis in September 2022 when gilt yields moved from about 3.5 per cent a couple of days before the mini-budget to about 4.5 per cent two days later, a 28 per cent change in five days.

Or when the Japanese yen “carry” trade — borrowing in a low-interest-rate country to fund investment in assets elsewhere that offer higher returns — unwound in August 2024. The Nikkei 225 fell 19 per cent between July 31 to August 5 while the yen strengthened more than 7 per cent against the dollar in that period.

Added to this today’s investor must grapple with long-lasting crowded trades and momentum-driven investing at a scale we have never seen before. Those trades can disguise thin fundamental trading liquidity — either the trades are one way and you cannot find liquidity in a crisis, or it might seem there is plenty of liquidity but it is driven by momentum or quantitative driven investors and dries up when the market turns.

We are now at the stage where a portfolio manager must see liquidity as a dedicated fundamental of investing as they do credit risk, volatility or correlations. Sure, this adds complexity. But if they miss-estimate and mismanage liquidity on their portfolio, their investment performance could crater in 48 hours as they face investor redemptions while clutching insufficiently liquid holdings.

So far, so alarming. But it is not all bad. Extreme liquidity events, and the mispricings that come with them, bring opportunity to the active investor. A forced seller of an otherwise good asset is handing future value to the bold investor. 

Because liquidity shocks hit different types of investment unevenly investors can use them as a way of rebalancing their portfolios at a cost that, in normal times, would be prohibitive. Alternative investments in areas that can be tough to access, such as distressed debt or private equity, may become available on more attractive terms. In the same way discrepancies in asset pricing can arbitrage opportunities — to seek gains or lock in downside protection while most investors are looking the other way — become affordable.  

An important but less discussed effect of these sharp new liquidity shocks is how they weaken competitors by straining less-prepared investors.

It is now possible to be the better prepared investor. While liquidity risks are still underestimated and under-researched, liquidity is no longer intractable. With today’s big data tools, liquidity conditions can be anticipated, and actively managed. Models of future liquidity and trading costs can be built. These estimate the liquidity of each individual security by assigning bid/ask extremes. This gives the manager information on how much of the portfolio is saleable at acceptable cost. 

This modelling demands (very) big data sets and AI-type technology and the crunching of billions of data points and the running of complex simulations. No liquidity crisis is the same as another and bid/ask extremes vary from one security to another. Doing this is neither simple nor cheap, but it is effective and increasingly necessary given the way markets are evolving.

Historically this analysis was just not possible. The data wasn’t available, nor were the tools to predict what will happen liquidity-wise.

Investors who actively anticipate changes in liquidity may be accused of “reckless conservatism” looking for the worst-case scenario and allowing for it and in the process wrecking the prospect of a decent return. But efficient liquidity management is a source of returns as well as sound risk management. Fully analysed stress testing is a way to avoid being caught by surprise.

Inconsistent liquidity is damaging to investors. But the means to turn it to advantage exist. They just need to be adopted.