FT : France’s Banijay explores takeover bid for ITV

France’s Banijay explores takeover bid for ITV
Media group in early talks to buy UK broadcaster or its studio production arm

French media giant Banijay Group is working on plans for a takeover offer for ITV or its studio arm to bring together two of Europe’s largest TV production groups, according to two people familiar with the situation. 

Banijay has held early talks with the British media group, the people said, whose studio arm has attracted interest from a range of investment groups such as RedBird IMI, which owns rival All3Media, as well as private equity funds.

ITV’s share price has risen by a tenth this year given the talk around a potential deal for its studio arm, valuing the group at just over £3bn. Analysts say the studios arm could be worth that on its own, however, setting little value on a broadcasting business that includes a linear and streaming service in the UK.

Options that have been explored by Banijay include an offer for ITV’s studio business or the full takeover of ITV. The latter would be likely to mean Banijay would seek to bring in third-party investors, according to one person close to the situation.

The ITV discussions are at a very early stage, with no guarantee that they will progress to a deal for either the media group or its studio business, one person familiar with the situation said. 

The combination of Banijay and ITV Studios would make strategic sense given their strengths in scripted and unscripted TV production, with both making shows for the big broadcasters and US streamers. The combination would offer negotiating power given that many streamers and broadcasters are seeking to curtail expenditure.


ITV makes shows such as Love Island — which it also broadcasts in the UK — and Rivals for Disney, while Banijay produces successful programmes such as Peaky Blinders and Big Brother.

Banijay Entertainment, the French production and distribution company, is owned by Banijay Group, which is based and listed in Amsterdam. Banijay Group, controlled by French entrepreneur Stéphane Courbit, also makes a large number of non-English-language titles, such as Like Water for Chocolate for HBO’s Max, and Supersex, La Vita che Volevi and The Law According to Lidia Poët for Netflix in Italy. 

ITV has held separate, early talks with RedBird IMI, the Abu Dhabi-backed investment group that last year acquired UK rival All3Media. ITV itself has also explored various combinations for rival businesses, including a potential offer for All3Media last year.  

Liberty Global, ITV’s largest shareholder with about a tenth of its shares, supports the management looking at options for the business, according to people familiar with the situation.  

Banijay and ITV declined to comment.

FT : Liverpool’s Premier League win makes John Henry’s vision a reality

Liverpool’s Premier League win makes John Henry’s vision a reality
US billionaire wanted trophies to drive football club’s commercial revenue. Liverpool’s 20th league title will do just that.

Liverpool FC have won the Premier League for a second time under American ownership, breaking Manchester City’s grip on the English title with a dominant campaign under new manager Arne Slot.

The club’s 20th league title was confirmed after a comprehensive 5-1 win against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday, equalling a record set by arch-rivals Manchester United. The club’s haul of 82 points from 34 games has put them out of reach of their closest rival, Arsenal, with four games of the season still left to play.

The league triumph is Liverpool’s second since the club was bought by US billionaire John Henry’s Fenway Sports Group in a £300mn deal in 2010. In that time, the club has also won the Champions League, Fifa Club World Cup, the FA Cup and three league cups.

There are signs that FSG’s vision of a virtuous circle — where success on the pitch powers commercial revenues, which can then be reinvested into the playing squad and the youth academy — is becoming a reality.

Liverpool won the title despite spending less than any other Premier League club across the summer and winter transfer windows, according to Transfermarkt data.

Its use of sophisticated data analysis techniques to identify undervalued players — such as midfielder Ryan Gravenberch and defender Ibrahima Konaté, each signed for €40mn — means they have spent less on transfers than all their major rivals since their last title win, in 2020.


Like Liverpool’s last league triumph, this victory owed much to the contributions of Egyptian forward Mohamed Salah and centre back Virgil van Dijk, the club captain. The experienced duo, who have both recently signed contract extensions, have played almost every minute of league football this season.

Salah has more goals and assists than any other player, while van Dijk has been at the heart of a defence that has conceded only 32 goals so far this season. By contrast, Liverpool’s rivals have relied more heavily on the contributions of less experienced players.


However, keeping a successful group of players together has required Liverpool to extend contracts and increase player wages. The result is that its wage bill is now the second highest in the league.


That puts the onus on Liverpool’s commercial department to increase revenues. Ben Latty, the club’s chief commercial officer, told the Financial Times that his department’s role was to generate income to “sustainably finance the pursuit of trophies.

“We’re already looking to the future and working out how we can best maximise this success [winning the Premier League] to continue our commercial growth and support further on-pitch success,” he added.


Commercial revenues, increasingly important at a time of slowing media rights growth, surpassed £300mn for the first time last year. They are expected to rise again next season after Liverpool switched kit supplier from Nike to Adidas.

The club’s commercial partners include insurer AXA, phonemaker Google Pixel and beer brand Carlsberg. This summer, players and staff will fly to Japan and Hong Kong with the club’s official airline partner Japan Airlines for the club’s pre-season tour.


But Liverpool’s season has not been a total success. They lost to minnows Plymouth Argyle in the fourth round of the FA Cup and their hopes of a seventh Champions League trophy ended with defeat to Qatari-owned Paris Saint-Germain in the last 16.

Analyst Kieron O’Connor, who writes the SwissRamble football finance blog, estimates Liverpool’s revenue for the 2024-25 financial year is likely to surpass £700mn, on account of its participation in this season’s Champions League. Liverpool failed to qualify for the 2023-24 Champions League.

Ian Graham, Liverpool’s head of research until 2023, says that tying van Dijk and Salah down to new contracts has bought Liverpool time to fine tune their squad.

“They’ve given themselves breathing space to find world class replacements over the next two to three years,” he said.

FT : Saudi Arabia and Qatar to repay Syria’s debts to World Bank

Saudi Arabia and Qatar to repay Syria’s debts to World Bank
Support is first funding from Riyadh as war-ravaged country seeks to rebuild its economy

Saudi Arabia and Qatar have said they will settle Syria’s outstanding debt to the World Bank, in a step that will help the war-ravaged country access funding for postwar reconstruction and public-sector salaries.

The funding of about $15mn will be the first financial assistance to Syria from Saudi Arabia since the fall last year of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, a government that the kingdom had staunchly opposed.

“This commitment will pave the way for the World Bank Group to resume support and operations in Syria after a suspension of more than 14 years,” the two countries said in a joint statement on Sunday during the spring meetings in Washington of the World Bank and IMF.

Syria’s economy has been shattered by more than a decade of war and wide-ranging sanctions, presenting a formidable challenge for the new government led by former rebels from the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbours have stepped up humanitarian aid to Syria in recent months, but the debt settlement plan will be the first Saudi funding for the country as Riyadh moves to step up its influence, including by welcoming the new Syrian leader on his first foreign trip in February.

Mohammed al-Jadaan, the kingdom’s finance minister, on Friday stressed the need to move cautiously on Syria because of sanctions and other factors, but said the international community should do more to support war-torn countries in the region, including Yemen, Sudan, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

“They need to know that the international community . . . will stand by them,” he said.

Syria’s central bank governor and finance minister attended the World Bank and IMF meetings in Washington this week for the first time in more than two decades.

It was the first visit by Syria’s new government to the US since the Assad regime was toppled in December after a lightning offensive by opposition forces. Since then, Syria’s new government has sought to rebuild the country’s diplomatic ties with regional and global powers, as well as international financial institutions.

Officials from the IMF and the World Bank emphasised to the Syrian authorities the need for credible economic data and to rebuild the central bank.

SCMP : Why are European luxury brands caught in China-US trade war crossfire?

Why are European luxury brands caught in China-US trade war crossfire?
Amid US-China trade war, videos showcasing China’s manufacturing prowess went viral but also drew controversy

People working in the fashion industry in Paris are wondering how they managed to get caught in the crossfire of the China-US trade war.

Amid rising trade tensions with the United States, English-language videos posted on TikTok by the operators of Chinese factories have showcased the country’s manufacturing prowess, going viral with claims that many expensive, high-quality European consumer goods are actually made in China.

The videos suggest many bags sold by luxury brands such as Louis Vuitton, Chanel and Hermes are made in China at relatively low cost before being shipped to Europe for a final “Made in France” stamp – and huge mark-ups.

Those claims have been rejected by Benedicte Epinay, the head of Comite Colbert, a body that represents the French luxury goods industry, and current and former industry participants in France.

A tailor who worked for Dior for 17 years said: “I have never heard of us having a factory in China.

“It’s not something that one can learn in just months. It takes at least five years to train a craftsman at Dior. There is actually a severe labour shortage in the industry.”

LVMH group, which owns Dior, said it has 120 workshops in France, 66 in Italy and employs 58,000 people.

Hermes said it has 60 production sites in France and 15 in other countries. They are in Switzerland, Italy, the United Kingdom, the US, Portugal and Australia – but not China.

Epinay said on Tuesday that a French anti-counterfeit association had alerted social media companies including TikTok and Meta on behalf of the brands early last week, “asking them to mediate to stop this defamatory misinformation”.

The French Trade Ministry declined to comment.

At one of Italian luxury brand Valentino’s Paris boutiques, a sales assistant said: “Customers of luxury goods know they are not buying luxury bags just for the leather, you are also paying for the design and the reputation of the brand.

“I think it’s a kind of compliment. No one would counterfeit you if you are not popular.”

In the comment section of a TikTok video about where to find Chinese factories that make convincing fakes, one person said he had bought a couple of bags for his wife that were “near identical to the original” and “worth the price”.

France has rules regulating what products can be labelled “Made in France”, making it difficult for companies with most of their production overseas to win certification.

The law requires products to undergo “substantial transformation” in France before they can receive the stamp, and the country’s Finance Ministry has a branch dedicated to policing attempts to fool consumers.

Many French luxury brands do work with Chinese-owned factories in northern Italy, and Manufactures Dior – owned by Dior’s Italian branch – was investigated by Italian authorities in July for using facilities suspected of exploiting their workers. The investigation resulted in a court order that was lifted in February.

SCMP : Hutchison ports deal: China regulator warns parties not to circumvent pro

Hutchison ports deal: China regulator warns parties not to circumvent probe
State Administration for Market Regulation says it is ‘highly concerned about the relevant transaction’ following reports deal is to be split up

Mainland China’s market regulator has warned CK Hutchison Holdings and other parties involved in the controversial sale of the Hong Kong conglomerate’s overseas ports not to circumvent an ongoing antitrust probe into the deal, with some parts of the transaction reportedly set to be split up.
The warning from a spokesman for the State Administration for Market Regulation on Sunday followed a media question over a recent report that suggested the wealthy Italian Aponte shipping family was looking to carve out two Panama Canal ports from the US$23 billion deal.

The deal, which US investment firm BlackRock is leading, is still being reviewed by the market regulator.
“We are highly concerned about the relevant transaction and will review it in accordance with the law,” the spokesman said.

“The parties to the transaction shall not circumvent the review in any way and shall not implement the concentration [of business operators] before approval, otherwise they will bear the legal responsibility.”

Under Article 20 of the mainland’s Anti-Monopoly Law, “concentration” refers to the merger of business operators, acquiring control over another by acquiring their equity or assets, or an operator acquiring control or influence over others with a contract or other means.

The market regulator had earlier said it would launch an antitrust probe after the shock announcement by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing’s CK Hutchison over the sale of its 43 overseas ports in a US$23 billion deal to a BlackRock-led consortium. The conglomerate would receive US$19 billion in cash under the deal.

The two ports it operates at either end of the Panama Canal have drawn intense scrutiny from both Beijing and Washington, with the strategic waterway becoming a geopolitical flashpoint in the US-China rivalry.

It was reported earlier this month that tycoon Gianluigi Aponte and his son Diego Aponte had held discussions about moving forward with most of the deal while waiting for the ongoing disputes about the two Panama ports to be resolved.

While the report suggested that separating the Panama ports would require the parties to reach a new agreement, it also quoted BlackRock CEO Larry Fink as earlier saying the deal was being treated as a single transaction and that he was “optimistic” a solution could be found for the disputes.

The Post earlier reported that BlackRock aimed to take control of CK Hutchison’s two Panama facilities, while the Aponte family’s Terminal Investment Limited would have a majority stake in the others.

CK Hutchison declined to comment.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to “take back” the canal, which the United States built and controlled for much of the 20th century before ceding it to Panama in 1999. The Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of CK Hutchison, has operated two facilities, one at either end of the canal, since 1997.

Wilson Chan Wai-shun, co-founder and director of policy research at the Pagoda Institute think tank, described the market watchdog’s warning as a “rather neutral comment as any regulator will issue this kind of comment when there are reports or actions related to the deal they are currently investigating”.

“Of course, splitting the deal may have implications on the antitrust probe as now it involved two deals,” he said.

By issuing the warning, the market regulator could be putting pressure on the parties involved to avoid separating the deal “so as to prevent any unnecessary and unwanted consequences in the future”, Chan added.

Lau Siu-kai, a consultant at the semi-official Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies think tank, said Beijing would not support any transaction that violated the country’s anti-monopoly laws.

He said Beijing was concerned about the deal’s impact on the Belt and Road Initiative – China’s plan to grow global trade – its shipbuilding industry and its shipping sector.
Some ports in the CK Hutchison deal are located in belt and road countries.

The New Yorker : “When Are More Americans Going to Speak Up?”

“When Are More Americans Going to Speak Up?”
Senator Cory Booker on the grave harm that Donald Trump has inflicted on American life in his first hundred days in office.

A few weeks ago, Senator Cory Booker, of New Jersey, rose on the floor of the Senate and said that he had the “intention of disrupting the normal business of the United States Senate for as long as I am physically able.” With that, he launched into a sprawling, heartfelt speech directed at the Presidency of Donald Trump. He came prepared with more than a thousand pages of written material, including testimony from hundreds of New Jerseyans and other Americans.

Twenty-five hours and five minutes later, Booker stopped talking. He had broken the record for a continuous speech in the chamber, set, in 1957, by the South Carolina segregationist Strom Thurmond, whose oratory was in the service of filibustering against a civil-rights bill. Not long after finishing his marathon, Booker said that he would “go deal with some of the biological urgencies I’m feeling.”

Since then, Booker, who served as mayor of Newark before winning his Senate seat in 2013, has kept up the volume of his critique of Trump. I spoke with him recently for The New Yorker Radio Hour about the impulse for his speech, the growing harms of the Trump Presidency, and what he sees as the dangerous failure of so many institutions and leaders to speak up. Our conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity.

We are coming up on Trump’s hundredth day in office, and I was just reading the slew of pieces that were written eight years ago—about the Muslim ban, Mike Flynn’s appointment and rapid dismissal, the crazy midnight tweeting, the flirtations with Moscow and Pyongyang, the atmosphere of general alarm. What is different now?

There is a deeper, more grave attack going on with our fundamental constitutional principles that I believe we all share. The Trump Administration seems resolute to tear down a century of traditions—or at least post-World War Two traditions—of world order. And Trump is effectively, thus far, doing it without Republican congressional leaders doing anything—not just to stop him, but even to offer up a strong rebuke or critique. And so I think that the danger signs this time are far greater.

I have been told by people doing scientific research, people doing international work to stop the spread of infectious diseases, people who are talking about agency investigations into horrific crimes, that a lot of the things that he’s doing are irreversible, or at least will take a generation to try to undo. And so the consequences every day that this Administration continues in this manner are grave and great.

What has been accomplished in a hundred days that you think is particularly grave and particularly irreversible?

There are many things to point to that are grave. I’ll start with one of them that I mentioned. A lot of people who are doing research are pointing to example after example of how Trump’s actions have stopped it—whether it’s actually taking scientists themselves through immigration action and bouncing them out of our country, or putting them in detention, or just cutting the funding.

Trump has taken a page out of China’s book and they have taken a page out of our book. China attacked their universities during the Cultural Revolution in a stunning way. They attacked élite institutions that were doing scientific research as well as culture. And then they realized, in our generation, how much that cost them. Now they’re seeing things like breakthroughs in A.I., robotics, autonomous vehicles, E.V.s. They understand that the future will be shaped fundamentally by those who are inventing it.

And what has Trump done in a hundred days? He’s declared a cultural revolution of his own, attacking universities, attacking folks that are on the frontiers of science and research, putting them on the defensive, cutting billions of dollars, creating a situation where they are stopping research or stopping an inflow of the world’s best researchers. This is not a loss we can just bounce back from.

What, if anything, about the first hundred days of this Administration has surprised you?

Trump is losing his ability to surprise me. When people ask me about his talking about a third term, or deporting American citizens to a gulag in El Salvador—I mean, these outrageous things he’s said, I’ve come to expect them, and believe him. So I don’t know if there’s surprise. There’s been a lot of profound disappointment.

I know my Republican colleagues in the Senate and some in the House. I know their core values. I listen to them—from the Signalgate and the problems with [Defense Secretary Pete] Hegseth, all the way to just cutting bipartisan-approved investments in things like science, in some of the bipartisan bills that we pass that deal with gun violence, bipartisan investments in health innovations—I know privately from conversations how much they object to these things. And right now where my heartbreak lies is that so far you’ve seen scant few people willing to step up and take risks because there is a reality—Jeff Flake, Bob Corker, Liz Cheney—that people who did stand up, did speak out, are no longer in Congress.

Are these jobs so great? Is being a senator so wildly awesome that one would not give it up in order to live by one’s principles? Lisa Murkowski whispers that people are frightened, but that’s about as much resistance as you hear or see among Republicans. Are the jobs that great?

I certainly don’t believe they are. I really don’t. I just know from psychology that we’re always the heroes in our own story. People think to themselves, I will make these compromises in order to be in a position to do this good, and they do this calculus in their head.

But there is a truth that I always joke about, which is that “Profiles in Courage” is a very thin volume. We’ve seen, though, Margaret Chase Smith, at a time where she took great political risk in a fierce speech she gave in criticism of her own party during the McCarthy era. We’ve seen demagogues rise before, to positions of great power and influence, from Father [Charles] Coughlin to [Joseph] McCarthy. Usually you see people who have the courage to step up and say, “Sir, do you have no shame?”

At this point, we have not gotten there yet. My father has this old story about a hound dog howling next to a man in a rocking chair, and a guy walks on the country road and asks him, “Why is your hound dog howling so much?” And he goes, “Well, he’s sitting on a nail.” And he goes, “Well, why doesn’t the hound dog just get up off the nail?” And the man on the rocking chair says, “Well, he’s not hurting bad enough yet.”

I’ve heard a lot of howling from people across the political spectrum, but the question is: When is the pain going to be enough? When he brings private businesses to heel for private political purposes, like law firms? When he attacks centers of excellence on planet Earth—our universities? Is that enough? Is it going to be enough when he violates due process and disappears people off of our streets? Is that going to be enough for you? When he brings about a tariff regime that’s so chaotic, that’s so unplanned, that’s so unstrategic, that he throws our economy into peril—is that enough? When is it enough for you to speak up? And when I ask that question, it’s not just for the Republicans that are elected. It’s for all of us.

Bring me into the cloakroom. You’re having a conversation with a Republican colleague, and you’re discussing the situation in these terms. What is the ensuing dialogue like?

One of the reasons why politicians don’t act is because the demand from the people is not enough yet. And so as much as we want to point a finger at people who are elected to positions, which is justified, I also want to ask a lot of other powerful people in this country who are remaining silent. We’ve seen what many corporate leaders are doing right now—instead of speaking up and speaking truth, they’re kowtowing for their own private deals. In a tariff regime, do you go and say, “Hey, please exclude electronics.” Or do you go and say, “This is fundamentally wrong. You are hurting the economy. And I may face some backlash for this, but, when they look back at this moment in history, I’m going to be one of those leaders in our country.” Whatever the sector is—from the faith community to the business community, to the nonprofit community, to the foundation community—when are more Americans going to speak up?

My community, too. We’re talking an hour after the news came down that the executive producer of “60 Minutes” quit, which can only tell you that CBS [which is owned by Paramount] is ready to make a deal with Donald Trump and his lawsuit against them.

And we’ve seen this before in too many countries where there’s been democratic backsliding. When good people are silent, that’s when bad things and bad people flourish. Donald Trump is trying to intimidate people. He’s trying to threaten people. And too many people are allowing him to continue because they’re thinking of what is in their own personal, financial well-being, and not what is in the well-being of our democracy. It frustrates me. We are now at a moment where you have to choose—between financial comfort and security, or the well-being of your economy and vulnerable people who are right now in the crosshairs.

Senator, you’ve portrayed Donald Trump in pretty dark terms, and yet you’re a person who prizes empathy and tries to figure out what’s in the head of the other, even if it’s a political opponent as stark as Donald Trump. Trump doesn’t go to bed at night thinking he’s awful or pernicious or selfish. How do you imagine that he sees himself?

I just recently read the actual judge’s decision from the E. Jean Carroll case, and I was stunned. I don’t know why I hadn’t looked at it until now, with such credible allegations of rape that the judge, in no flourish of politics at all, but focussing on the facts before him, cast this picture of such a despicable act by Donald Trump. I see the crass way he talks about veterans or other marginalized groups. I’ve sat with him, up close and personal—one of my first meetings in his first term, I still remember this moment, seeing his lack of curiosity, or even the most basic understanding—but more than that, how easily he was distracted, how his top aides treated him like a child, almost like they were jangling their keys for a child to keep him focussed. I remember walking out of that meeting and turning to my colleague from New York, just despondent, and saying, “World leaders are going to see what I just saw. World leaders are going to see that kind of reckless arrogance and almost conscientious ignorance about details.”

So I have stopped concerning myself with Donald Trump’s motivations and thought processes. I need to deal with him, with what he is doing to people that I care about and love in this country. You can’t lead the people if you don’t love the people. I love my state—I love Jersey. But my bigger concern and anger right now is what is taking so long for many people to say that this is too far? Why are so many good people with power and privilege remaining so silent, keeping their frustration and outrage to quiet conversations with their friends? When is it enough? That is the moral crisis of this moment. We know who Donald Trump is. But the question is: Who are we?

My understanding is that you were hearing silence in your own party leadership, and the occasion for your twenty-five hour speech on the floor of the Senate was your hearing from a lot of your constituents. What were they saying, and at what volume?

I was encountering a lot of anger toward me, because when I would explain to people that we don’t have the votes as Democrats, we don’t have the ability to stop this spending bill or stop this confirmation—that was wholly unsatisfying to people who were afraid, who were themselves angry, who couldn’t imagine these things happening in their country, and expected more from me and more from the Democratic Party. We decided, after I had a disagreement with my leader, Chuck Schumer, over the continuing resolution [on the budget]—I decided that I had to shift my own way of working now. I felt like my constituents were demanding from me that I take risks, that I think outside of the box.

Why did you decide that a day-long speech from the well of the Senate was the political theatre that would be most effective?

We were getting letters that would literally render my staff in tears. We had people coming to our office, not even from our state, because they saw this as an outpost, to tell us that they were going to lose their farm because Donald Trump had cut contracts. Stories that were just gut-wrenching to my staff. And they said, “We’ve got to find a way to make those stories break through.” And so part of our strategy was: How do you get the nation to listen a little bit more? In this terribly competitive attention economy that we have, what could break through?

The same year that John Lewis wrote a letter to Martin Luther King, and King then sent him a bus ticket—that was the same year that Strom Thurmond gave the longest speech in Senate history, trying to stop what Martin Luther King and John Lewis were doing in that letter exchange. And so as a Black man who was not envisioned by Strom Thurmond ever serving in [the Senate]—in fact, I’m the fourth Black person ever popularly elected to that body, after Barack Obama, who was the third—we knew that if I could last twenty-four hours and eighteen minutes, that we could potentially command some attention from the public. We never imagined that we would get, on TikTok alone, over three hundred million people liking the live stream. We never thought that it would be as successful as it was. That’s the key here—to deal with the poverty of empathy we have in our nation right now. The poverty of realizing that this is happening to my neighbor, that this fundamentally implicates me and endangers me.

You mentioned Senator Schumer earlier. You’ve said that you would not want the job of Minority Leader in the Senate. Why not?

Well, let me first say that I may have disagreed with Senator Schumer vehemently in this instance, but anybody who looks at the Senate in the last three or four years would have to say that this guy, this tactician behind the scenes, has racked up one hell of a record. I mean, the bipartisan bills that I watched from a front-row seat: a bipartisan gun bill, the bipartisan CHIPS act, a bipartisan infrastructure bill. This is Chuck Schumer’s leadership. Chuck pulled the trifecta off. He won in Wisconsin, he won in Michigan, he won in Arizona—seats that by all intents and purposes we should have lost. And we obviously had great candidates, but Chuck was doing it.

So you don’t think Chuck Schumer’s time has come?

No.

You think that’s the case indefinitely?

No, I wouldn’t say indefinitely. Look, the last baby boomers are leaving power in American politics. This is the last baby-boomer President, Chuck is the last baby-boomer leader of the Senate. A new generation is dawning, and my critique thus far of my generation and millennials is that we have failed to step up and say, like generations before us, that it’s time to dream America anew.

When Nayib Bukele, the Salvadoran President, visited the White House earlier this month, he paraded as a kind of fellow-autocrat with the President. Trump said that he’d like to include “homegrown criminals that push people into subways” in the “group of people to get ’em out of the country.” I don’t think he was kidding around. You’ve got a President who believes he can even send American citizens to foreign prisons. Are Democrats working on anything preëmptively to protect American citizens?

You ask whether the Democrats are working on anything. I’m trying to broaden this to say that all Americans—the responsibility falls on all of us.

That’s totally fair. But you’ve got a job. And I do, too—

But New Jersey did not send me to Washington to be a great Democratic senator. They sent me to be a great New Jersey senator, and a great fighter for America. And this is why during the twenty-five hour [speech in the Senate] we brought in the CATO Institute, the Heritage Foundation‚ Republican gubernatorial voices—all to make the point, from their own words, why this President is so dangerous and why this is a time of moral urgency. Right now, one of my biggest areas of focus is stopping this bill that will gut Medicaid and health care for eighty, ninety million people and endanger hospitals. We need Republicans of good conscience, like we did in 2017 with the Affordable Care Act, to vote with us. And so playing this as a partisan game—

Fair enough.

—cheapens the larger cause of the country. This is a time when America needs moral leadership, and not political leadership. And that’s what I’m standing up and saying. I’m accepting responsibility for my own leadership failings. And I want to appeal to the soul, the heart, the conscience of our country—it’s not just important for leaders now to speak against Trump, but also to capture the imagination of people for how we can rise above this moment.

Senator Booker, over the years, you have been a really clear opponent of antisemitism, over and over again. But would you agree that antisemitism, to some extent, is being exploited in a political way by the Trump Administration? How do you see that very complicated piece of business?


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I see it very clearly. Were there things happening on college campuses that were dead wrong in my book? Absolutely. College campuses, college presidents and leadership, made mistakes. And they should be owning up to them and taking corrective action. But, yes, Donald Trump is exploiting antisemitism in order to pursue an agenda that is far greater and far more authoritarian. We know that people preyed upon Jewish populations during the Red Scare, and used hate and antisemitism in a different way then, as a tool to pursue what I consider a dark chapter in American history. Political opportunists will exploit fear, hate, and division for their larger authoritarian aims. And that’s exactly what Donald Trump is doing.

Now I know you got a lot of positive reaction to your twenty-five-hour-long speech. I wonder if you got the other thing, too. Lisa Murkowski has talked about threats that have come her way. Do they come your way as well?

Yeah. Look, there’s a great book—“How Democracies Die” [by Daniel Ziblatt and Steven Levitsky]. They talk about the different signs. One sign I started seeing when Obama was President, where the letter of the law was followed, but the spirit of the Constitution wasn’t, was when they wouldn’t give [Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court] Merrick Garland a hearing. That was a slow unwinding of the spirit of bipartisanship, or the spirit of democratic norms and traditions. And I’ve seen that erode even more quickly, obviously, under this current President, in a disastrous way.

One of the other signs they talked about was the heightening of political violence and threats of violence. We are seeing chilling things. Esther Salas is a federal judge in my state. A murderer went to her house and murdered her child and shot and severely wounded her husband. That was bad enough. Threats at that point on federal judges were up about four hundred per cent. But to see how they’re skyrocketing even more now under Donald Trump—there’s been incendiary language across the board on federal judges.

I saw [Esther Salas] interviewed. She was shaken, because people are sending pizzas to federal judges who are deciding against Donald Trump from her son’s name, Daniel Anderl. They’re using her murdered son’s name to send pizzas to the homes of a federal judge, almost to say: we know where you live. I’m definitely facing a whole new order of security concerns in my own life, as are senators on both sides of the aisle. When [Iowa Senator] Joni Ernst dared to question the qualifications of Pete Hegseth, what she endured online—the vicious things that were being said about her, the political threats, and more, in my opinion, were vile. And we’re just seeing it go up more and more. This is something that has to stop in our country.

Do you think that played a role in her, in the end, supporting Hegseth?

I will make no guesses as to what her internal deliberations were.

But it must be scary.

Most senators and congresspeople, on both sides whom I’ve talked to, know that we are living in a scary environment. We are seeing the largest level of antisemitic hate in my lifetime. We’re seeing threats on Muslim Americans, Sikh Americans—every religious group is seeing a rise in threats of violence and hate crimes. Blacks and Latinos—what’s happening to the Latino community at this time is chilling.

Your Latino constituents must be watching what’s happening with extraordinary alarm.

Let me be clear. Even ones who voted for Trump never imagined this and have expressed regret that they voted for Donald Trump. People in my neighborhood are afraid to walk their children to work, are afraid to go out to restaurants. Restaurants are seeing a plunge in attendance because of the fear within the immigrant communities here, and these are people who are doing jobs that—just a few years ago, we were calling them “essential workers.” These are people who have contributed to our economy, who have paid taxes—many of them run businesses that pay taxes and employ people. So we are in crisis right now. There is a presumption of criminality that puts communities at risk, and puts their families at risk, and undermines, again, the strength of our economy.

I find that the conversation that we’re having sounds like a conversation that would be born of ten years of experience rather than a hundred days. A hundred days! Wednesday is the one hundredth day of Trump’s second term, and there are thirteen hundred days remaining, or thereabouts. What do you expect to see happen?

Well, first of all, I hope it’s chilling to some to understand that it takes years—years—to establish democratic norms and traditions. Decades to strengthen democratic principles and ideals. Generations to instill them within the hearts and minds of a people. But it could take days to unravel them—days to tear them down.

I have never in my life been as worried about our country, about our democracy, about our traditions, as I am now. But I will say this: Shiva, in the Hindu faith, is the god of destruction. And I know Donald Trump would get glee from me comparing him to any kind of god. But Shiva’s also a valued god because you can’t have renewal and rebirth without facing destruction.

I am a prisoner of hope. I always will be. I think the best way to answer despair is to not let it have the last word. That’s what hope is. I will always counter despairing times with telling what I think is the truth of our country’s history. It has often been out of the darkest times, where we’ve seen the infernos of Hell, where we’ve seen destruction, where we’ve seen Shiva—from those ashes has often risen the best of who we are. And that’s really what I’m working for right now. Not just to stop the destruction coming from the White House but to usher in the next generation of leadership in this country to help us to dream America anew and redeem the dream for so many who’ve given up on the very dream of America.

FT : The S&P 500 is still significantly overpriced

The S&P 500 is still significantly overpriced
Investors are yet to fully factor in tariffs and hits to AI and US exceptionalism

Despite signs of a slowing US economy, Donald Trump’s tariff plans and stultifying uncertainty, Wall Street analysts still expect the main US stock index to end 2025 just below 6,000 on average. That means the market projects the S&P 500 will rise by at least 5 per cent between now and December 31.

So this week, I’ll outline the case for why the market is wrong, and why the S&P 500 is more likely to end this year significantly below its current level of 5,525.

End-year stock market forecasts are ultimately underpinned by investors’ annual economic outlook and their assessment of structural drivers, such as artificial intelligence and US exceptionalism.

For 2025, analysts essentially expect the S&P 500 level to be broadly unchanged on last year. That is a notable markdown from the past two years of consecutive annual growth above 20 per cent. But is it still too optimistic?


Let’s begin with the economic fundamentals. Last month, I argued that America was heading for a recession. (This was based on economic weakness coming into Trump’s second term, the uncertainty of his policies, and the possibility of some import duties being implemented.) I appreciate that this isn’t Wall Street’s view, yet.

Analysts are more focused on actual tariff announcements. Indeed, since “liberation day”, consensus growth forecasts for 2025 have fallen and probabilities for a recession in the next 12 months have risen to 45 per cent. Most expect the US effective tariff rate (pre-substitution effects) to settle around 10 to 20 per cent this year. It is currently estimated at around 28 per cent, having started 2025 close to 2.5 per cent.

These forecasts seem reasonable: notably higher tariffs than last year and slower growth, even if there is no recession. However, the market is still pricing more optimistically than that.

“The information derived from risk assets doesn’t even suggest markets reckon a mild slowdown will take shape this year,” said Daniel Von Ahlen, a senior macro strategist at TS Lombard, utilising a simple regression model to estimate US growth forecasts from asset prices.


Expectations for corporate earnings this year remain too high. It is easier for Wall Street to make buy and sell decisions based on perceived risk-on or risk-off news items. Judging their impact on companies’ bottom lines can take longer.

“Typically earnings estimates decline during even mild recessions,” said Peter Berezin, chief global strategist at BCA Research. “But the market currently assumes nearer 10 per cent earnings growth over the next 12 months. That’s off last year’s peak profit margins no less.”

Analysts may be too optimistic about the ability of companies to pass through any tariff costs to consumers. The sectors that import the most — industrials, materials and consumer discretionary — also have limited pricing power, notes BCA Research’s US equity strategy team.

Assuming companies won’t be able to raise prices significantly, it shows Trump’s tariffs reducing S&P 500 net income margins by 2.2 percentage points. That would translate to a 19.2 per cent decline in S&P 500 earnings per share, all else equal (based on tariff rates at 10 per cent for all countries, Chinese import duties returning to their pre-retaliation rate of 54 per cent, and steel, aluminium and car-specific levies at 25 per cent.)

For measure, Goldman Sachs estimates that each 5 percentage point rise in the US tariff rate leads S&P 500 EPS to fall roughly between 1 to 2 per cent.


Whatever one’s tariff outlook, consensus forecasts for EPS to grow notably in 2025 appear at odds with the current economic environment: high uncertainty, weak consumer and investor confidence, and elevated import duties. (Scheduled vessels into the Port of Los Angeles are expected to drop significantly year on year in two weeks’ time.)

Earnings revisions are coming in rapidly now. The number of earnings downgrades by analysts for 2025 is ironically at recessionary levels, though the actual magnitudes of the downgrades remain relatively less significant. As earnings projections come down, prices will follow, as analysts calibrate valuations.

For measure, the forward price-to-earnings ratio (how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of future earnings) is currently around 19. In the five years prior to the pandemic, it was closer to 17. And in all recessions since 1980, it has averaged around 10.

Using Goldman Sachs’ S&P 500 sensitivity matrix, a still modest forecast for EPS to grow by 3 per cent this year and forward P/E ratios to return to just above their pre-pandemic average would put the index nearer to 4,550.


Of course, it is possible for the S&P 500 to dodge such a hefty fall if structural factors provide buying impetus.

But first, the AI narrative is hitting roadblocks. DeepSeek’s low-cost model release in China put the spotlight on the billions being spent by US tech firms on AI capital. Trump’s trade announcements — including planned duties on Asian tech manufacturing hubs and chip export restrictions — have added further pressure.

“We’re still waiting for a ‘killer app’ that justifies the heavy capex taking place. The low barriers to building large language models also raise further questions over the revenue [the Magnificent Seven] can generate”, explains Hugh Grieves, a fund manager at Premier Miton Investors. “[They] are also only slowly assessing how tariffs impact their earnings”.

The stock prices of the Magnificent Seven tech businesses have dropped substantively since Trump’s inauguration. But analysts are unclear on what is being priced in. The companies account for one-third of the S&P 500’s market capitalisation. (They also skew net profit margin estimates for the whole stock market upward.) So selling them is an easy way to cut risk exposure as the news whipsaws.

Still, their forward P/E multiples remain above pre-pandemic levels (individually and collectively). Prices could drop further as their profitability is re-evaluated, both in terms of tariffs and AI hype.


Second, US exceptionalism. For years America has attracted capital by virtue of its deep liquidity, stability and the safe-haven status of its assets. This enabled the S&P 500 to grow beyond economic fundamentals.

But the narrative is weakening. In March, respondents to Bank of America’s Fund Manager survey slashed their US equity holdings by the most on record. Tariffs weigh disproportionately on America. Its companies are the greatest beneficiaries of the “Made in Asia” model, notes Matt King, founder of Satori Insights. (Retaliatory measures will hurt US firms too.)

Policy upheaval, radical uncertainty, rising financial stability risks and attacks on independent economic institutions (such as the US Federal Reserve most recently) make the US a less reliable place to park capital.

“The US has gone from the ‘cleanest dirty shirt’ to being one of the ugliest and yet still most expensive item cluttering the investment wardrobe,” says King. “Even after this year’s correction, US equities retain a significant exceptionalism premium trading on forward P/Es 50 per cent higher than non-US equities.”

This exposes America to further capital flight, depending on the attractiveness of opportunities abroad and Trump’s actions. Paradoxically, if the president’s term continues as it has started, the US will be more reliant on improved economic fundamentals to build buying momentum.


The S&P 500 has oscillated down around 10 per cent from its February peak. But the newsflow makes it difficult to know what has and hasn’t been priced in.

The constant churn of policy announcements, exemptions, postponements and denials mean investors re-price each day where they consider risk to be relative to the day before. This then shifts the goalposts for judging growth and profitability forecasts.

For all the noise, however, the market still seems positioned for a hopeful outcome. Stocks are not even priced right now for a mild downturn. “For the S&P 500 to rise to where the consensus is now, Trump would need to immediately roll back tariffs”, reckons Berezin.

Sure, recent climbdowns suggest the president can be turned somewhat. But by how much? And when? If most investors reasonably expect tariff rates to eventually settle at least several multiples higher under Trump than where they started 2025, they are yet to fully price that in, along with the lingering impact of economic uncertainty.

Wall Street’s earnings and growth projections have further to fall. As they do, markets may also further scrutinise the AI and US exceptionalism narratives. That’s why I fear the S&P 500 will end the year not with a 5 handle, let alone a 6 — but with a 4.

FT : LNG companies say they cannot comply with Trump rules on Chinese ships

LNG companies say they cannot comply with Trump rules on Chinese ships
Industry says administration’s levies on foreign vessels will harm US plans for ‘energy dominance’

The liquefied natural gas industry has warned the Trump administration it cannot comply with new rules aimed at forcing them to use US transport vessels by imposing levies on Chinese-built ships docking at US ports.

It warns the rules published by US trade representative Jamieson Greer on April 17 could damage a $34bn a year export industry that is central to the president’s “energy dominance” agenda, according to lobbying letters sent by the American Petroleum Institute to the administration this week.

The new rules are part of US efforts to increase the pressure on China over what Washington argues are unfair trade practices, while boosting the domestic manufacturing of ships.

However, they have caused alarm among US exporters, who worry they will dramatically increase the cost of contracting vessels.

The LNG industry has already benefited from a three-year delay in the implementation of the rules to the sector, which is heavily reliant on Chinese and foreign-built vessels.

The USTR is also allowing LNG producers to gradually phase-in the use of US-built and flagged vessels over a 22-year period. US authorities could still order the suspension of LNG export licences if the terms of the new rules are not met.

But the API warns in letters to the US secretaries of energy and the interior that it is impossible for LNG producers to comply with the rules.

There are currently no US-built vessels capable of shipping LNG and no surplus capacity at US shipyards to build LNG carriers by the deadline of 2029, according to people briefed on the contents of the letters.

API warns the rules would compromise US producers’ ability to dominate the global LNG industry and cement America’s position as the global energy superpower.

This action against the industry could cause future US administrations to become creative and use similar trade instruments as a way to suspend export licences, the group argues.  

Industry has also requested the administration exempt shipments of crude oil and refined products such as gasoline and liquefied petroleum gas from the maritime tariffs, noting such fees would disrupt a carefully balanced supply chain and hit industry competitiveness.

When asked about the letter, API told the Financial Times that it understood the need to curb discriminatory trade practices from China and increase US shipbuilding but had concerns about the rules.

“We will continue working with USTR and the Department of Energy in support of feasible and durable policies that benefit consumers and advance American energy dominance,” said Aaron Padilla, API vice-president of corporate policy, in a statement.

Charlie Riedl, executive director at the Center for LNG, an industry group, said the measures risk destabilising long-term contracts, raising costs for global buyers, and threatening America’s position as the leading LNG exporter.  

“That’s why we have urged USTR to exempt LNG shipping and LNG carriers from this action entirely,” he said.

The US overtook Australia in 2023 to become the world’s biggest exporter, and last year shipped 11.9bn cubic feet a day of LNG — enough to satisfy the combined gas needs of Germany and France. The industry has ambitious plans to double exports by the end of the decade.

The new rules on Chinese-built, owned and operated vessels have sparked a wave of lobbying by US industry, including farmers and other exporters, who have warned it will push up freight costs.

Under the rules, the US will begin charging fees to vessel owners and operators from China of $50 per net ton beginning in 180 days, increasing by $30 per net ton over the following three years. Companies from elsewhere in the world operating Chinese-built ships would be charged a lower amount.

The oil and gas industry, which was a big donor to Trump’s election campaign, has so far enjoyed considerable success in winning concessions from the administration, including have oil and gas imports into the US excluded from tariffs.

FT : Octopus-backed Fern explores push into UK mobile operations

Octopus-backed Fern explores push into UK mobile operations
Y Corporation could shake up market for mobile virtual network operators

A company backed by Octopus Group, the multibillion-pound fund that owns the eponymous energy company, is plotting the launch of a new mobile telecoms operator.

Y Corporation, a little-known mobile provider owned by Fern Trading — a subsidiary of Octopus’s investment arm — is understood to be exploring opportunities to offer virtual sim-only contracts to both businesses and consumers, in a move that could challenge industry incumbents such as BT-owned EE and Virgin Media O2.

The move could represent a significant shake-up to the UK’s mobile telecoms offering, which is dominated by the four network operators including soon-to-be-merged Vodafone and Three.

Fern has approached Three to explore the plans, with Y Corp already having an existing wholesale arrangement with the network operator, according to two people familiar with the situation. The plans were first reported in the Sunday Telegraph. 

The Octopus-backed competitor would not use its own network infrastructure. Instead, it would be a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO), and piggyback on the existing network of another provider.

Under the terms of the Vodafone-Three merger, MVNOs with agreements to use Three’s network are entitled to the same deal being rolled over into the merged entity, which will become the UK’s largest mobile network upon the tie-up’s completion.

Octopus appointed Adam Dunlop, the former TalkTalk consumer chief, as a director in January to explore the plans, according to a person familiar with the group’s thinking. 

Any new virtual operator will not use the Octopus brand, the person added.

The UK’s mobile market is split into two layers, with the four network operators being joined by a host of virtual network players, which often offer cut-price deals to consumers while utilising others’ network infrastructure.  

However, many MVNOs are owned by the larger operators, including VMO2-backed Giffgaff and Vodafone subsidiary Voxi. 

Karen Egan, head of telecoms at research firm Enders Analysis, said the hands of MVNOs had been strengthened over recent years due to the shift to sim-only services, struggling network operators “very keen to give them favourable terms”, and the cost of living crisis.

“Companies with existing strong retail distribution systems are particularly well positioned to perform strongly in the MVNO market,” she added.

Research from Enders showed that 2024 was the first year in history when the UK network operators lost contract subscribers, while by contrast MVNOs added 1.6mn.

Octopus Group, which was co-founded in 2000 by chief executive Simon Rogerson, now manages more than £12bn in assets, while its energy subsidiary surpassed British Gas in January to become the UK’s largest residential energy provider.

Octopus and Three declined to comment.