>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $63
    • BlackLine (BL) upgraded to Buy from Underperform at BofA Securities; tgt raised to $75
    • Brinker (EAT) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Northcoast; tgt $215
    • Coca-Cola (KO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $75
    • Commvault Systems (CVLT) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at William Blair
    • Corning (GLW) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC Securities; tgt raised to $60
    • CVS Health (CVS) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Edward Jones
    • Edwards Lifesciences (EW) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel; tgt raised to $90
    • Lam Research (LRCX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald; tgt $100
    • Lam Research (LRCX) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein; tgt raised to $91
    • Logitech Int'l SA (LOGI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Kepler
    • MercadoLibre (MELI) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at New Street; tgt raised to $2,300
    • Meta Platforms (META) upgraded to Buy from Hold at The Benchmark Company; tgt $820
    • Pacira BioSciences (PCRX) upgraded to Hold from Sell at Truist; tgt raised to $25
    • RH (RH) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; tgt raised to $374
    • SEI Investments (SEIC) upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James; tgt $99
    • Veritex Holdings (VBTX) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Hovde Group; tgt $31.50
  • Downgrades:
    • Everest Group (EG) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $375
    • Floor & Decor (FND) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman; tgt $79
    • KKR (KKR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $173
    • Lennox Int'l (LLI) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Mizuho; tgt lowered to $625
    • PagerDuty (PD) downgraded to Underperform from Buy at BofA Securities; tgt lowered to $18
    • Vertex Pharma (VRTX) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $460
  • Others:
    • Knightscope (KSCP) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $16
    • Surrozen (SRZN) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $32

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • MBLY -13.1%, UPS -12.1%, WHR -12%, FLWS -10.9%, CI -9.7%, NOW -9.5% (also authorizes new $3 bln share repurchase program; also expands partnership with Google Cloud; also expands strategic alliance with Visa; also announces strategic partnership with SoftwareOne), DT -9.3%, MXL -8.4%, STM -8.2%, LEVI -6.8%, BFH -5.1%, ALGM -4.8%, TSCO -4.7%, MSFT -4.4%, AOS -4.4%, AVY -4.1%, SIGI -4%, MEOH -4%, DB -3.4%, CAT -3.4%, RHI -3.3%, CLB -2.9%, LUV -2.9%, DGX -2.9%, FIBK -2.6%, TTEK -2.2%, AXS -2.2%, SXC -2.2%, MUR -2%, DOW -2%, JBSS -1.9%, CMCSA -1.9%, TER -1.7%, NOC -1.7%, ETD -1.6%, CSWI -1.6%, SHW -1.6%, DLB -1.1%, WOLF -1%, CAH -0.8%
Other news:
  • CRGX -75.4% (to discontinue FIRCE-1)
  • IKT -11.1% (reports Phase 2 data on risvodetinib)
  • BFLY -10% (prices offering of 24.0 mln shares of common stock at $3.15 per share)
  • IMNM -9.7% (prices offering of 19,354,839 shares of its common stock at $7.75 per share)
  • IRWD -7% (initiates Apraglutide NDA submission; also sees FY25 revs below consensus)
  • TRIB -5.3% (provided an update as to the potential impact of U.S. President's Executive Order on Reevaluating and Realigning United States Foreign Aid on the Company's sales of Rapid HIV tests)
  • AAL -2.3% (American Airlines Flight 5342 collided in midair with a Sikorsky H-60 helicopter)
  • HRTG -2.1% (quantifies catastrophe losses from LA wildfires)
  • STBA -2.1% (raises dividend)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • CLS +13%, CALX +11%, IBM +8.1%, NOK +7.7%, OSK +7.7%, LVS +6.6%, LRCX +5.5%, FLG +5.4%, WDC +4.6%, MTH +4.5%, LAZ +4.3%, NFG +3.7%, CHKP +3.5%, SEIC +3.4%, BHE +3%, TAK +2.9%, PHM +2.9%, DOV +2.9%, SNY +2.8%, MBUU +2.7%, TWO +2.4%, ROP +2.2%, MMC +2.1%, BX +1.7%, TSLA +1.6%, AMP +1.4%, NLY +1.2%, CCS +1.2%, LSTR +1.2%, RES +1.2%, META +1.1%, SHEL +1.1%, CNX +1.1%, CP +0.9%, WM +0.9%, LHX +0.9%, RCI +0.8%
Other news:
  • TECX +40% (interim data from the Phase 1b acute hemodynamic clinical trial of its lead product candidate, TX45)
  • VBTX +23.3% (CFO to retire; names new CFO)
  • OFG +18.9% (increases dividend)
  • MXCT +4.7% (acquires SeQure Dx)
  • LAES +3.7% (expands its patent pool)
  • PESI +2.7% (names new COO)
  • STGW +2.6% (launches STAGE AI)
  • COUR +1.8% (CEO to retire, names new CEO)
  • ALLY +1.5% (CEO bought $1 mln in shares)
  • BALL +1.2% (authorizes new $4 bln share repurchase program)
  • UTL +1.2% (increases dividend)
  • CLMB +1.1% (names new chairman)
  • IIPR +1.1% (reached an agreement with PharmaCann Inc. and its affiliates to resolve PharmaCann's existing defaults under leases for eleven properties that the Company owns, previously announced by IIP on December 20, 2024)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of January 2025 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Aena Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 228 euros
* Almawave Raised to Buy at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 4 euros (+)
* ASML Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 750 euros
* ASML ADRs PT Raised to $1,250 from $1,000 at Argus (++)
* Ceres Power Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 220 pence
* Gecina Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 107 euros
* IBM PT Raised to $275 from $240 at Evercore ISI (+)
* IBM PT Raised to $271 from $246 at Stifel (++)
* LEG Immobilien Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 92 euros
* Lindt & Spruengli Raised to Buy at Redburn
* Logitech Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Meta PT Raised to $785 from $690 at TD Cowen
* Netcompany Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 350 kroner
* QleanAir Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 25 kronor
* Rotork Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 405 pence (+)
* SAP ADRs PT Raised to $320 from $265 at Argus
* Sartorius Stedim Raised to Hold at Intron Health; PT 230 euros (+)
* Strix Raised to Buy at Shore Capital (+)
* SSAB Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 65 kronor (+)
* TAG Immobilien Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 16.50 euros
* Verkkokauppa.com Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 1.90 euros

>>> Down
* Alliance Pharma Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Avolta AG Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 Swiss francs
* Generali Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 29 euros (+)
* Icade Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 25 euros
* Leonardo Cut to Accumulate at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 32 euros (+)
* Multiconsult Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 215 kroner (+)
* Norconsult Norge Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 46 kroner (+)
* Nvidia PT Cut to $152 from $166 at Morgan Stanley
* Nvidia Cut to Sell at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $112
* Richemont Cut to Hold at Bank Vontobel; PT 185 Swiss francs
* Tesla PT Raised to $425 from $365 at Cantor (++)
* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 8.70 euros
* Unibail Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 85 euros

>>> Initiation
* Havas NV Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1.90 euros
* VusionGroup Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT 220 euros (++)

>>> Call
* Aena Leads European Airports Higher Following Barclays Upgrade (++)
* Ceres Power Jumps as Goldman Upgrades After Underperformance (++)
* Fevertree’s Molson Coors Deal a ‘Game Changer,’ Jefferies Says (+)
* Rotork Gains as Deutsche Bank Upgrades on Scope for Re-Rating (++)
* Stolt-Nielsen Slips; DNB Sees Low-Quality 4Q Beat, Soft Guidance (++)
* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Slides as Goldman Cuts on US Hydrogen Market (++)
* Vitrolife Gains on 4Q as DNB Highlights Strong Margins (++)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • VBTX +23.3%, OFG +18.9%, CLS +12.4%, CALX +11%, NOK +8.6%, LAES +8.4%, IBM +7.9%, LRCX +7%, LVS +6.4%, FLG +5.9%, PESI +5.4%, MTH +4.5%, CHKP +4%, NFG +3.7%, TAK +3.5%, TSLA +3.1%, VIK +3%, BHE +3%, WDC +2.7%, STGW +2.6%, META +2.6%, SNY +2.6%, TWO +2.5%, COUR +2.3%, DOW +2.1%, ALLY +2%, SEIC +1.3%, SHEL +1.3%, UTL +1.2%, NLY +1.2%, CCS +1.2%, CLMB +1.1%, WM +1.1%, FNV +0.9%, AMGN +0.8%, WELL +0.8%
  • Gapping down:
    • CRGX -74.4%, WHR -12%, CI -11.7%, IKT -11.1%, BFLY -10.5%, IMNM -10.4%, NOW -9.3%, MXL -8.3%, STBA -7.7%, LEVI -7.5%, IRWD -7%, STM -6.8%, UPS -5.5%, ETD -5.1%, SIGI -4.1%, MEOH -4%, MSFT -3.8%, RHI -3.3%, MXCT -3%, DB -2.9%, AAL -2.3%, RJF -2.3%, AXS -2.2%, HRTG -2.1%, FBNC -1.9%, TTEK -1.8%, MUR -1.3%, FIBK -1.1%, DLB -1%, HWKN -0.9%

>>> UPS beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 revs below consensus

UPS beats by $0.22, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 revs below consensus
  • Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $2.75 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.22 better than the FactSet Consensus of $2.53; revenues rose 1.5% year/year to $25.3 bln vs the $25.41 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • Consolidated Operating Margin of 11.6%; Non-GAAP Adjusted Consolidated Operating Margin of 12.3%.
  • Co issues downside guidance for FY25, sees FY25 revs of ~$89 bln vs. $95.03 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • Operating margin to be approximately 10.8%.
  • Today the company announces the following set of strategic actions:
    • First, it has reached an agreement in principle with its largest customer to lower its volume by more than 50% by the second half of 2026;
    • Second, effective January 1, 2025, the company has insourced 100% of its UPS SurePost product;
    • And third, in connection with these efforts, the company is reconfiguring its U.S. network, and launching multi-year "efficiency reimagined" initiatives to drive approximately $1.0 billion in savings through an end-to-end process redesign.
  • The company is planning capital expenditures of about $3.5 billion, dividend payments of around $5.5 billion, subject to board approval, and share repurchases of around $1.0 billion for 2025.

LYST : Lyst Index : Hottest Brand in Luxury in Q4 2024

The Lyst Index is a quarterly ranking of fashion’s hottest brands and products compiled by Lyst, the world's biggest and most intelligent fashion shopping platform. With 200m shoppers a year and the biggest data set in fashion, Lyst is a unique source of global fashion intelligence. The formula behind The Lyst Index takes into account Lyst shoppers’ behavior, including searches on and off platform, product views and sales. To track brand and product heat, the formula also incorporates social media mentions, activity and engagement statistics worldwide, over a three month period.


2024 was a year of fashion in flux, and the transformation of The Lyst Index hottest brands chart reveals how online fashion shoppers are responding to shifting tides. This was Miu Miu’s year; the brand claimed the number one spot three out of the last four quarters (displaced only by Loewe in Q2). Sister brand Prada has also remained within the Top 3 year-round, while Saint Laurent has been steadily climbing the Top 5. Meanwhile, the rest of the table continues to shuffle as fashion fans reassess the value of luxury labels, and (re)discover more accessible brands and trends. This quarter sees two new entrants, some seasonal success stories, and some dramatic leaps up and down the Hottest Brands chart.

Coach climbs 10 places to become the world’s 5th Hottest Brand, reflecting an exceptional quarter across all of our key Index metrics. A well-executed strategy to connect authentically with Gen Z customers has paid off, with demand up a staggering 65% quarter on quarter, and 332% year on year. Competitive discounts during Peak sale season allowed more customers to access hot Coach bags and made Coach pieces popular holiday gifts.

332%

The year on year increase in demand for Coach in 2024

The Coach Brooklyn bag is this quarter’s Hottest Product, with a 46% spike in searches for Q4, while a Coach cherry bag charm taps into the Gen-Z craze for customization. Accessories for accessories are trending, as shoppers look for quirky charms, pins, and scarves to express their personalities, and adorn their it-bags with a personal touch. Searches for bag charms on Lyst spiked 77% this quarter.

UGG, another Gen-Z favorite, breaks back into the Hottest Brands list, rocketing into tenth position. While UGG always sees seasonal success, this quarter’s demand is unprecedented; UGG searches are up 358% over the last three months, and up 12% year on year. Beyond the ongoing nostalgic appreciation for 2000s fashion, shoppers are feeling inspired by creators showcasing new ways to style the boots, pairing UGGs with baggy jeans or more elevated looks. As ‘Mini UGG outfit inspo’ dominated TikTok, the ubiquitous tan UGG Classic Ultra Mini Boots became this quarter’s second hottest product.
Algorithms overlap in our Hottest Products ranking, where the data surfaces celeb-endorsed statement pieces alongside more pragmatic ‘capsule wardrobe’ items. Post quiet luxury, shoppers are still seeking sleek, clean design across all price points. The Row remains the quarter’s ninth hottest brand, while COS, H&M Group’s modern minimalist line, enters the Hottest Brands list for the first time. Demand for COS increased 16% this quarter, and its viral cashmere sweater (a dupe for The Row’s style) is the fifth hottest product.

The Wardrobe NYC RHW blazer dress, from a collaboration with actress and model Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, is this quarter’s sixth hottest product. As worn by Beyoncé at a Kamala Harris rally, searches increased 110% this quarter. Taylor Swift helped drive a 242% surge in searches for British designer Charlotte Simone’s cult vintage-inspired coats, this quarter’s eighth hottest product. While in ninth position, &Daughter’s cardigan is the it-knit of the season, representing a viral TikTok moment for red crew neck cardigans this winter.
As TikTok continues to fuel brand and product heat, how could an evolving social media landscape in the US shape how we shop for fashion this year? Will the luxury downturn continue, opening up space for more premium and contemporary brands, and how will the comings and goings of fashion’s high-profile creative directors influence The Lyst Index? Fashion’s great shake-up looks set to continue into 2025, and we’ll be tracking the data as the story unfolds.

$628

The average price of a Q4 Hottest Product, down 27% YoY

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of January 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Aena Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 228 euros
* Almawave Raised to Buy at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 4 euros (+)
* ASML Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 750 euros
* Ceres Power Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 220 pence
* Gecina Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 107 euros
* IBM PT Raised to $275 from $240 at Evercore ISI (+)
* LEG Immobilien Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 92 euros
* Lindt & Spruengli Raised to Buy at Redburn
* Logitech Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Meta PT Raised to $785 from $690 at TD Cowen
* Netcompany Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 350 kroner
* QleanAir Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 25 kronor
* Rotork Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 405 pence (+)
* SAP ADRs PT Raised to $320 from $265 at Argus
* Sartorius Stedim Raised to Hold at Intron Health; PT 230 euros (+)
* Strix Raised to Buy at Shore Capital (+)
* SSAB Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 65 kronor (+)
* TAG Immobilien Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 16.50 euros
* Verkkokauppa.com Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 1.90 euros

>>> Down
* Alliance Pharma Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Avolta AG Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 43 Swiss francs
* Generali Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 29 euros (+)
* Icade Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 25 euros
* Leonardo Cut to Accumulate at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 32 euros (+)
* Multiconsult Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 215 kroner (+)
* Norconsult Norge Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 46 kroner (+)
* Nvidia PT Cut to $152 from $166 at Morgan Stanley
* Nvidia Cut to Sell at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $112
* Richemont Cut to Hold at Bank Vontobel; PT 185 Swiss francs
* Thyssenkrupp Nucera Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 8.70 euros
* Unibail Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 85 euros

>>> Initiation
* Havas NV Rated New Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 1.90 euros

>>> Call
* Fevertree’s Molson Coors Deal a ‘Game Changer,’ Jefferies Says (+)

FT : John Elkann seeks US reset at Fiat and Jeep owner with closer ties to Trump

John Elkann seeks US reset at Fiat and Jeep owner with closer ties to Trump
A new CEO of Stellantis will still need to overcome weak European demand and rising Chinese competition

Stellantis is making a multibillion-dollar gamble that Donald Trump’s shift away from electric vehicles could offer a chance for the struggling European carmaker to reboot its American operations and secure its financial future.

Since the abrupt exit of its fiery chief executive Carlos Tavares in December, the group’s chair John Elkann has made key strategic changes in the US by cancelling lay-offs, revamping the local management team and adjusting product plans. 

On his first day in office, Trump has reversed a target for half of all new US vehicles sold in 2030 to be electric, while his threat of higher tariffs against Mexico and Canada could cause turmoil to operations at Stellantis. But for the carmaker, the change in US leadership and energy policy will also be seen as an opportunity.

Elkann has announced more than $5bn investments in the US, where it will roll out a range of electric vehicles, hybrids and petrol vehicles on multi-energy platforms the company developed — which were inherited from the Tavares era. This will allow it to cater to varying consumer demands even if sales of EVs slow in the American market. 

Stellantis described the new administration’s “business-friendly” approach as “a breath of fresh air”. “This gave us the confidence to unlock significant investments in [Trump’s] first week in the White House,” the company added.

Elkann’s focus on the US was underpinned by a four-day trip to Washington this month to meet Trump and other US government officials to build closer ties ahead of his inauguration.

There, Elkann, the softly-spoken scion of Italy’s billionaire Agnelli family, reassured the White House that the Fiat and Jeep owner would align to its strategy even if it were to depart from existing green targets, according to people with knowledge of the meeting.


The US pivot by Stellantis comes as the global automotive industry is scrambling to respond to the sweeping changes that are set to take place during the next four years of the Trump presidency, which could also impact the global pace of the electric transition.

Telling US executives last month to “work hard to ensure our relationships with our different stakeholders ease”, Elkann stressed that “What we really need to do is sell cars,” according to one person who was present.

The group’s North America boss Antonio Filosa, is regarded as a leading internal candidate to succeed Tavares, according to people familiar with the strategy. The appointment of a new CEO is expected within six months.

In a meeting with US dealers earlier this month, Stellantis executives revealed that the group would delay the launch of the electric Jeep Recon sport utility vehicle until late this year to prioritise the launch of a mid-size SUV. They added that it could potentially add hybrid and petrol versions, according to a person with knowledge of the meeting. 

Elkann recalled Tim Kuniskis, who had retired last year, as Ram Trucks chief executive. Stellantis also reversed a decision to cut 1,100 jobs at a Jeep plant in Ohio, and will protect 1,500 jobs through its promise to spend $1.2bn in an Illinois plant.

Shawn Fain, president of the United Auto Workers, has described the departure of Tavares and Filosa’s appointment “a game-changer”. “This is a leadership that is ready to recommit to investing,” Shawn said in a joint statement with UAW director Kevin Gotinsky last week.

Although Tavares cemented the merger between Fiat Chrysler and France’s PSA during his 5-year tenure, his outspoken style and tough approach to costs left the group’s relations with dealers, unions and Stellantis’s board, in tatters.

Revenues

Operating Profits

Elkann’s more conciliatory style has been a departure from Tavares, known for his charismatic but uncompromising approach, and could also pave the way for the new person to continue in a similar vein.

“We’re not going back to that,” said one person close to the discussions, referring to Tavares’s divisive character.

During his tenure as CEO, Tavares had argued that the survival of the European car industry was at stake unless the workforce and plants became more competitive. “We were just ahead of the other stakeholders’ understanding of the situation,” he told the Financial Times without commenting further on his management style.

In Europe, Elkann has also embarked on a whistle-stop tour to meet the heads of state in Italy and France, reassuring them that Stellantis would protect jobs and continue investing.

“Sometimes you’ve got to take the hit and then start again because when you have the dealers, the workers, the governments and the suppliers in opposition, it’s not ideal,” said Michael Foundoukidis, a car sector analyst at ODDO BHF.

The charm offensive to repair fraught relations with government officials, dealers and unions is a key part of the reset at Stellantis, but analysts say it could also be costly for a business hit with slowing demand and a steep share price decline.

Among the most important steps taken by the leadership has been to accelerate a strategy embarked on by Tavares: reversing a previous decision to sell its vehicles at high prices, and clear inventories to manageable levels.

In the US, Tavares’s previous plan to protect margins by maintaining high prices led to a pile-up of unsold cars, a symbol of the troubles facing Stellantis and the biggest source of tension with its dealers.

An industry survey published this month revealed that Stellantis brands Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, and Ram were the least trusted carmakers among US dealers. Factors such as supply and management stability affected dealer sentiments, according to the company which carried out the research.

As the company cut output to reduce inventories late last year, shipments of new Stellantis vehicles to North America in the last quarter of 2024 fell 28 per cent from the previous year. The measures will hurt the group’s short term financial performance but are needed to prepare for the arrival of new products, said analysts.

In Europe, the company has taken a similar strategy in reducing stock under the new regional head Jean-Philippe Imparato, who is also seen as a CEO contender.

Barclays estimates the group’s adjusted operating profit margin to improve to 6.6 per cent this year from 6 per cent last year, but that would still be about half of the 12.8 per cent margin it reported in 2023.

Despite the changes in approach, Stellantis also faces the same challenges as the rest of the European car industry with rising competition with Chinese rivals and the long-term trend of lower sales of new cars.

And while Stellantis has promised no imminent plant closures in Italy and France, it will push ahead with plans to close a UK van factory in Luton. Tavares’s successor as chief executive could face even tougher decisions on workers if he does not manage to improve the group’s performance quickly. 

“Elkann’s approach today has been to rebuild the links,” said Foundoukidis. “He’s not going to be able to do that all the time. There are obviously going to be difficult decisions that have to be taken, this year or next.”

WSJ : France’s Political Mire Drags Economy Backward

France’s Political Mire Drags Economy Backward
Business and consumer confidence remains on the rocks

The French economy shrank in the final months of last year as political deadlock took its toll on business and consumer confidence and the glow from the summer’s Olympics faded.

Gross domestic product was 0.1% less in the fourth quarter than the third, when a boost from the games held in Paris in July and August helped the French economy grow at the fastest rate last year.

For the year as a whole, France’s economy kept the same pace as in 2023, growing at 1.1%.

Alongside a second-straight year of contraction in beleaguered Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, France’s weak rate of growth is weighing on the currency area, which is likely to face continued challenges at the start of 2025.

Spain has proved a rare sunny spot for Europe, boosted by free-spending tourists, investment and a robustly growing labor force, and likely growing faster even than the U.S. last year. Still, the European Central Bank is all but certain later Thursday to cut its key interest rates for a fifth time in eight months as it aims to ease some of the restraints it imposed on businesses and households in an effort to tame high inflation.

France’s economic situation has deteriorated sharply since the summer, said Charlotte de Montpellier, an economist specializing in France at Dutch bank ING.

“Uncertainty over future budget adjustments, including potential tax hikes for businesses and households, along with political instability, the aftermath of the Olympics, and a less favorable international environment, have weighed on fourth-quarter activity,” she said.

France’s business confidence remains on the rocks in the face of a government that has remained in limbo since the summer, when President Macron’s decision to call snap legislative elections saw his party, already without a majority in the National Assembly, further weakened.

Macron delayed the appointment of a new prime minister for months, and his eventual choice to lead the government was forced to step down in December after losing a confidence vote in the legislature. That has left France with little hope of dealing with its widening budget deficit, which already stands well above the threshold considered acceptable under European Union rules.

Macron’s hamstrung government is struggling to implement measures to narrow that gap between income and outlay, whether through higher taxes or lower spending. Macron’s landmark move to raise the retirement age to 64 is seen as key to shoring up the country’s finances, but remains unpopular among swathes of voters on both left and right. Moves to bump up the number of hours French people work have been floated by members of new premier Francois Bayrou’s administration, as have higher taxes on big businesses. That attracted criticism this week from Bernard Arnault, head of France’s largest company, luxury group LVMH, and himself one of the world’s wealthiest men.

“[The tax changes] would mean taxing anything ‘Made in France’… As a means of encouraging the offshoring of operations, it’s perfect. I don’t know if that’s the aim of the government, but that’s what it will achieve,” he told a press conference, a week after attending U.S. President Trump’s inauguration in Washington, D.C.

“Coming back to France after a few days in the U.S. is a bit of a cold shower. Over there, you’re welcomed with open arms,” Arnault said, praising Trump’s plans to reduce taxes and promote domestic manufacture.

The uncertain climate is delaying investment and cooling the country’s labor market. Unemployment rose in the fourth quarter, though as with the wider eurozone it remains below the levels common before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Inflation has fallen, standing at below 2% at the end of 2024, and lower interest rates should also be encouraging firms to invest and consumers to spend. But French households remain cautious, and are more inclined to save rather than splash out, ING’s De Montpellier said.

“Rising fears about unemployment and uncertainty are likely to lead to a further rise in the household savings rate,” she said. Consumer spending failed to pick up pace over the last months of 2024, growing at 0.4%.

A more protectionist trade policy in Washington will meanwhile limit any recovery at French factories, De Montpellier said.

“With exports likely to be hit by renewed trade tensions, there is every reason to believe that industrial activity in France will be very modest over the coming months,” she said.