>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of February 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Addnode Group AB Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 140 kronor
* Antofagasta Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 2,400 pence
* Aramis Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane (+)
* BBVA Raised to Buy by AlphaValue
* De Nora Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* DNB Bank Raised to Buy at BofA (+)
* Fincantieri Raised to Buy at Intesa Sanpaolo; PT 10.20 euros (+)
* Rheinmetall PT Raised to 1,098 euros at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Sabadell Raised to Buy by AlphaValue
* Somec Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* STMicro Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 34 euros
* Zehnder Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)

>>> Down
* Banco BPM Cut to Neutral at BofA (+)
* Bouvet Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 76 kroner
* Bouvet Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 78 kroner
* Bouvet Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Evonik Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Heidelberg Materials Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Hermes Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT 2,347 euros
* Holcim Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Julius Baer Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 58 Swiss francs
* Multiconsult Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 215 kroner (+)
* Neinor Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 16.10 euros
* Qiagen Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT 40.15 euros
* Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF
* Stendorren Fastigheter Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities
* Swedbank Cut to Underperform at BofA (+)
* Tate & Lyle Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 600 pence
* Trainline Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 400 pence
* Vaisala Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 54 euros
* Wacker Chemie Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 82 euros
* Wood Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 20 pence (+)
* Zumtobel Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)

>>> Initiation
* Adecco Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 29 Swiss francs (+)
* Asmodee Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 110 kronor (+)
* Frequentis Rated New Buy at Erste Group; PT 37 euros
* GE Vernova Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $423
* Randstad Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 50 euros (+)
* Reply Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 180 euros

>>> Call
* Barclays’ Cau Says European Equities Are at Fair Value (+)
* DNB Bank Raised to Buy at BofA; Swedbank cut to Underperform (+)
* Equity Flow Signals for Europe Look Positive: Citi Strategists (+)
* Nexans Reports Strong Finish and Decent Guidance, Says Jefferies (+)
* Ukraine-Driven Gains Overdone for Some Stocks: Morgan Stanley (+)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • ASR Nederland (A16 TH) +6.1%
    • ASR Nederland FY Operating Profit Beats Estimates
  • STMicro (SGM TH) +3.4%
    • STMicro Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 34 euros
  • Saab (SDV1 TH) +2.4%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +2.4%
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) +1.6%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +1.3%
  • Thales (CSF TH) +1.3%
  • Antofagasta (FG1 TH) +1.3%
    • Antofagasta Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 2,400 pence
  • BAE (BSP TH) +1.2%
    • BAE SYSTEMS PLC BA. Final Results
  • Dassault Aviation (DAU0 TH) +1.2%
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -1.3%
    • Porsche, BMW Need Germany to Pivot for Way Out of Crisis (1)
  • Porsche (P911 TH) -1.4%
    • Porsche, BMW Need Germany to Pivot for Way Out of Crisis (1)
  • Ferrari (2FE TH) -1.5%
  • Tomra (TMRA TH) -1.5%
  • Continental (CON TH) -1.8%
    • Watch European Autos, Drugs, Chips as Trump Floats 25% Tariffs
  • Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) -1.9%
    • Heidelberg Materials Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
  • Ryanair (RY4C TH) -2.1%
    • Watch European Autos, Drugs, Chips as Trump Floats 25% Tariffs
  • Evonik (EVK TH) -2.8%
    • Evonik Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
  • Philips (PHI1 TH) -4.7%
    • Philips Sees China Health Care Slump Weighing on Growth (1)
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -4.7%
    • Delivery Hero Repurchases Convertible Bonds Due 2025, 2026, 2027

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +2.2%
  • E.On (EOAN TH) +0.7%
  • Deutsche Post (DHL TH) +0.6%
    • Siemens Energy, ASTM SpA Spreads vs Industrials Peers Tighten
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +0.5%
    • MTU Aero Boosts 2025 Revenue Forecast, Beats Estimates
  • VW (VOW3 TH) -1.1%
  • Mercedes (MBG TH) -1.1%
    • Porsche, BMW Need Germany to Pivot for Way Out of Crisis (1)
  • Continental (CON TH) -1.2%
    • Watch European Autos, Drugs, Chips as Trump Floats 25% Tariffs
  • Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) -1.9%
    • Heidelberg Materials Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
MDAX:
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +2.2%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.8%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.4%
  • CTS Eventim (EVD TH) +1.2%
  • Siltronic (WAF TH) +0.9%
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -0.7%
  • Aurubis (NDA TH) -0.7%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) -2.6%
    • Evonik Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -4.3%
    • Delivery Hero Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 26 euros
SDAX:
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) +4.1%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) +2.4%
  • Medios (ILM1 TH) +1.6%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1.5%
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) +1.4%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) -0.6%
  • Kontron (KTN TH) -1%
  • SGL (SGL TH) -1.4%
    • SGL Prelim FY Adjusted Ebitda About EU163M, Est. EU153M

WSJ : The French Billionaire Working His Trump Ties to Spare His Luxury Empire

The French Billionaire Working His Trump Ties to Spare His Luxury Empire
It was a match made on Fifth Ave.—Bernard Arnault and the president go back decades. Can the LVMH chief now leverage that bond to fend off tariffs?

The day after President Trump survived an assassination attempt in Pennsylvania last summer, he received a call from a familiar French voice. It was Bernard Arnault, owner of the globe-spanning luxury empire LVMH MC 0.51%increase; green up pointing triangle.

Arnault wanted to check in on the man he had known for decades. Trump was also in the middle of a fierce presidential campaign, as well as several criminal proceedings.

The phone call from Arnault sent a clear signal: The luxury titan was sticking with Trump through thick and thin.

With Trump now in office and warning of steep tariffs on European goods, the question is whether Arnault can leverage his connection to keep his luxury conglomerate out of any trade wars. Tariffs would be a blow to Arnault’s empire, whose largest market is the U.S.—equal in size to all of Europe combined. Trump has called the European Union’s trade surplus with the U.S. an “atrocity,” but he also often leans on personal relationships to guide his policy.

The ties between the families are extensive, dating to when the two patriarchs were up-and-coming property developers in Manhattan. Arnault’s second-eldest son, Alexandre, has become friends with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. Ivanka Trump is a friend of Arnault’s daughter, Delphine, and a devotee of Dior, the brand Delphine oversees as CEO. The Arnaults’ conglomerate even pays rent to the Trump Organization, which is the landlord for LVMH’s Louis Vuitton store in Midtown Manhattan.

During Trump’s first term, Arnault’s decision to expand handbag production in the U.S.—and publicly promote the move with Trump—helped the luxury industry largely avoid an initial wave of tariffs that hit other European sectors. Trump left office before a second salvo of tariffs could take effect. Those levies, which some dubbed the “LVMH tax,” were designed to hit luxury goods in retaliation for a French digital tax affecting U.S. tech giants.

This time the contours of any trade war with Europe are unclear—Trump has so far backed off threats to Mexico and Canada. But Trump has ordered federal agencies to explore how to adjust U.S. tariffs to match those of other countries, an approach that threatens international trade rules in place for decades. The LVMH tax, meanwhile, still hangs over Arnault’s business empire.

Arnault built his luxury conglomerate into Europe’s most valuable company by betting on the marketing power of European craftsmanship. Consumers around the world pay eye-watering prices for handbags and other baubles because they are largely made in Europe with French savoir faire.

Such European exceptionalism has placed LVMH and its dozens of prominent brands on a collision course with Trump’s “America First” trade policies. The president is pressing foreign companies to shift production to the U.S.

LVMH is counting on strong U.S. demand to power its growth in the coming years after sales in China, its second biggest market, plunged around 20% last year. That stumble helped knock Arnault from his perch as the world’s richest person, which he ceded to another billionaire close to Trump: Elon Musk.

Arnault has mobilized lobbyists in Washington to make the case that Europe’s luxury industry isn’t the source of any trade disputes. He has placed 32-year-old Alexandre in senior roles at LVMH, where he has worked to cement the relationship with Trump and his family.

LVMH is studying the possibility of making several major manufacturing investments in the U.S. over the next two years, according to a company spokesman. LVMH operates 14 factories in the U.S., and is planning to pump more money into Tiffany, the iconic American jeweler it acquired in 2021.

“It’s evident that we’re being strongly encouraged by U.S. authorities to continue expanding our presence there,” Arnault said as LVMH reported earnings on Jan 28. “And I must say that, given the current environment, this is something we are seriously considering.”

Arnault is looking across the Atlantic at a time when his home market is becoming less hospitable. France’s economy contracted in the last three months of 2024, and the government is temporarily raising corporate taxes to help plug a hole in the country’s public finances. Returning home after a recent trip to the U.S., Arnault said, felt “a bit like a cold shower.”

“There’s hardly a better way to dampen enthusiasm,” he added of a planned rise in production-related taxes. “If the goal is to encourage offshoring, this is ideal.”

Arnault typically keeps a low profile, so many were stunned to see him sitting among former U.S. presidents and tech titans like Musk and Jeff Bezos at Trump’s inaugural ceremony.

Although seating was tight under the Capitol Rotunda, Arnault was flanked by his wife, Hélène Mercier-Arnault, and two of his five children: Alexandre and Delphine.

“Who would refuse an invitation from the president of the United States to attend their inauguration?” Arnault told reporters. “Besides, I’ve had a longstanding relationship with him.”

This article is based on interviews with people close to Arnault and LVMH.

New York in the 1980s
Arnault first crossed paths with Trump when the Frenchman was living in New York in the early 1980s. Arnault had left France after the election of François Mitterand, the first socialist president of France’s modern republic, led to higher taxes and the nationalization of swathes of the French economy.

At the time, Arnault didn’t own a single luxury brand. Instead he, like Trump, aspired to become a real-estate mogul. He opened offices at Rockefeller Center while Trump Tower was being erected on 56th Street and Fifth Avenue.

Arnault met Trump for the first time at a charity dinner at the Plaza Hotel in the early 1980s, years before Trump acquired the storied hotel. Trump was the embodiment of a distinctly American form of luxury, one that splashed brand names in boldface font on everything from buildings to jets.

Arnault’s most high-profile investments were on the Florida coast. U.S. real estate, however, was difficult terrain for the Frenchman, who struggled with an unfamiliar market. When Mitterand’s cash-strapped government made a U-turn toward more business-friendly policies, Arnault returned home.

When Arnault resurfaced in New York in the late 1980s, it was as the purveyor of a different kind of luxury. Arnault had purchased Christian Dior, and he was fighting for control of LVMH. He had garnered a reputation as France’s sharp-elbowed dealmaker back in France, drawing comparisons to Trump himself.

In 1989, Arnault helped sponsor a black-tie event for the French luxury industry at the Metropolitan Club in Manhattan. Trump and Arnault shared a table, according to video of the event. Arnault, who is seated next to a bejeweled Ivana Trump, beams as Trump arrives at the table and shakes his hand.

Arnault continued snapping up fashion and luxury brands, including American ones like Marc Jacobs and Donna Karan.

The real front lines of Arnault’s expansion, however, was the U.S. real-estate market. Dominating the fashion industry was like a game of Monopoly: Arnault’s brands needed to occupy prime locations in America’s most exclusive shopping corridors.

Arnault began snapping up properties around Fifth Avenue. He commissioned architect Christian de Portzamparc to design the steel and frosted glass LVMH Tower on 57th Street near Madison Avenue, just around the corner from Trump Tower. He bought a building on 57th Street and Fifth Avenue that he later turned into the largest Louis Vuitton store in the world. He got his hands on the opposite corner, occupied by Bulgari, when Arnault acquired the Italian jeweler in 2011.

“The corner of 57th and Fifth is without doubt the best retail corner in the United States and perhaps the world,” said Eric le Goff, a retail real-estate broker and vice chairman at Mona, a leasing and advisory firm.

In the weeks before Trump’s first inauguration in 2017, Arnault was among the first business leaders to ascend the golden escalator at Trump Tower to pay homage. He was flanked by Alexandre Arnault who, at 24 years old, had already known Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner for years.

Arnault had warned his son about Trump’s habit of forcefully pulling people toward him during handshakes. Still, Alexandre found himself lurching forward as Trump yanked his hand before a battery of TV cameras.

Behind closed doors, Arnault floated the possibility of LVMH opening a new plant, possibly in Texas. The proposal was right up Trump’s alley, showing that even the maker of some of the world’s finest luxury goods was willing to shift production to the U.S. under his administration.

As the men parted ways, Trump told Arnault: “Call me any time, you know that.”

‘I can’t tax him’
In 2019, the Trump administration imposed tariffs on $7.5 billion worth of European goods in retaliation for EU subsidies to Airbus. The duties targeted aircraft, cheese and alcohol like wine and Scotch. Luxury items like Champagne and handbags were spared, however, leaving some people scratching their heads.

The day before the tariffs were enforced, Arnault and Alexandre boarded Air Force One with Trump, en route to Johnson County, Texas, to inaugurate a new Louis Vuitton workshop. LVMH had invested $50 million in the facility, with plans to hire 1,000 employees within five years. The bags produced there—including the Neverfull, NéoNoé and Métis—bear the label “Made in U.S.A.”

When a French reporter asked Trump why he was slapping levies on wine and cheese while ignoring Champagne and leather goods, Trump said he had been discussing the issue with Arnault.

“I can’t tax him, because he moved to the United States. He was very smart. He was way ahead,” Trump said.

Trump’s presence at the unveiling caused consternation at Louis Vuitton’s offices in Paris. Nicolas Ghesquière, Louis Vuitton’s artistic director for women’s collections, wrote on Instagram: “Standing against any political action. I am a fashion designer refusing this association.”

Back in Texas, both Arnault and Trump appeared unfazed. “You’re an artist and a visionary,” Trump told Arnault. He added, with a grin, that Louis Vuitton was a name he knew well as a consumer. “Cost me a lot of money over the years,” he quipped.

Pulling Trump aside, Arnault confided plans to make a major investment in the U.S. He didn’t say what. Days later, LVMH went public with a bid for Tiffany. The roughly $16.2 billion deal was the biggest acquisition of Arnault’s career. And with Tiffany’s flagship store, LVMH now controlled three of the four corners on 57th Street and Fifth Avenue.

The store at the time was undergoing a costly renovation. Trump owned the “air rights” above Tiffany, meaning the store would need his approval for any changes that significantly added to the building’s height. It was an arrangement that stemmed from the construction of Trump Tower, which is directly next door. Trump had been so proud of the air rights deal that he named his fourth child Tiffany Trump.

The renovation didn’t end up adding to the height of the building—but Trump was involved in another way. He also owned a brick building bordering Trump Tower and the Tiffany flagship, and Tiffany had been renting the space as a temporary store.

Now LVMH was Trump’s tenant, and Arnault needed to extend his conglomerate’s stay in the brick building. Once the Tiffany flagship reopened, Arnault wanted to temporarily move Louis Vuitton’s flagship into the brick building while its permanent store underwent a sweeping renovation.

On the move
Arnault dispatched Alexandre to New York to become the No. 2 executive at Tiffany on Jan. 6, 2021—the same day that Trump supporters stormed the Capitol. By the time he left office, Trump was widely considered a pariah among business elites.

Alexandre Arnault was an exception. The young executive and his wife dined with Trump in 2023 at Mar-a-Lago to mark the closing of a new multi-year lease of the brick building.

Alexandre “is a young man on the move,” Trump wrote in a social-media post at the time. “We were celebrating the deal we made.”

Louis Vuitton’s Fifth Avenue store transferred to the brick building, turning it into a department-store sized temple of commerce. Giant sculptures of a giraffe and ostrich were added to the facade of the building.

Ahead of the 2024 election, Alexandre raised eyebrows when he attended Trump’s controversial campaign rally in New York, where a comedian likened Puerto Rico to a garbage dump.

After Trump won the election, Arnault moved Alexandre to Moët Hennessy, LVMH’s drinks division, which generates much of its revenue in the U.S. Alexandre took over as the unit’s No. 2 official this month, but people familiar with the matter say he is being groomed to eventually take the top job at Moët Hennessy.

The drinks business faces more difficult straits than the conglomerate’s leather goods and fashion division. Drinks have much thinner profit margins, making it harder for them to absorb any additional levies.

Shifting production to the U.S. isn’t an option. Champagne and Cognac, LVMH’s two main products, can only be produced in France under rules that link appellations of wine and liquor to specific regions of the country. LVMH sent extra shipments of Cognac to the U.S. in anticipation of tariffs during Trump’s first term, but that incurred additional manufacturing and storage costs for levies that were only in place for part of 2021.

For now, LVMH executives have been carefully mapping its exports across every customs code category—tracking their exact location in the shipping process—so the company can quickly determine its exposure the moment any tariffs take effect. And they are gearing up for more investments in Tiffany. LVMH is spending 10 times more on Tiffany stores than its previous owners and more than twice as much on marketing.

“Whatever people say, this is shaping up to be a very pro-business president,” said Tiffany CEO Anthony Ledru.

FT : Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney

Chinese warships in waters 150 nautical miles east of Sydney
‘Unprecedented’ manoeuvre comes as Beijing projects power further in Pacific

The Australian navy is shadowing Chinese warships 150 nautical miles east of Sydney, the furthest China’s navy has sailed down the eastern Australian coast.

Two Australian ships are following a Chinese naval task group — comprising two warships and a supply vessel — that appeared off the north-eastern coast of Australia a week ago, according to people familiar with the situation.

One person said it was “unprecedented” for the Chinese navy to sail so far down Australia’s east coast and stressed that Beijing was normalising its projection of power beyond the first Pacific island chain, which stretches from Japan to Indonesia, and the second island chain, which runs from Japan through Guam to Micronesia.

“As the Chinese test their ability to project power further south, in addition to east and west, the question becomes how much they can hold at risk — how much they can signal to the Australians that they can threaten them,” said Charles Edel, an Australia expert at Washington-based think-tank CSIS.

The Australian defence ministry last week said the ships were sailing in international waters off the country’s north-east. The two warships include a frigate called the Hengyang and a cruiser, the Zunyi.

The Pentagon last year said the People’s Liberation Army Navy was building ships that extended its reach beyond east Asia. China insists it has the right to develop its military.

“While US foreign policy is in flux . . . the presence of the Chinese ships off Australia displays a consistency, with the Chinese navy continuing to extend the reach and intensity of its patrols in the region including off Australia and the south Pacific Islands,” said Richard McGregor at the Lowy Institute think-tank.

“That tells you about Chinese ambitions in the Pacific where it is competing head-on for influence with Australia and to a lesser extent the US.”

The ships sailed east of Sydney as Admiral Samuel Paparo, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command, was visiting Australia, where he met defence minister Richard Marles and foreign ministry Penny Wong in addition to meeting Vice-Admiral Justin Jones, the chief of joint operations.

The Australian defence department and Chinese defence ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Euan Graham, a defence expert at the ASPI think-tank in Canberra, said the PLA was expressing power in the Pacific more frequently. He added that China had a history of unsafe responses to legal Australian maritime activity. Beijing objects when the US and Australian navies sail through international waters in the Taiwan Strait.

“They want to have their cake and eat it,” said Graham. “It’s a clear double standard.”

Marles, who also serves as deputy prime minister, said last week that the PLA Air Force had fired flares within 30 metres of an Australian P-8 aircraft, in an “unsafe” incident in international waters in the South China Sea.

Last week, Marles ordered the Australian navy and air force to keep a “close eye” on the Chinese naval task group. Beijing responded by accusing Australia of deliberately infringing on its rights in the South China Sea.

>>> What to look at today - 19th of February 2025

Asian stocks pulled back after a five-day rally that pushed a regional gauge into overbought territory, as investors turned cautious amid increasing trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged lower with stocks in Hong Kong and Japan declining after President Donald Trump threatened to impose more tariffs of around 25%. Semiconductor shares advanced in China while equity index futures for Europe pointed to a lower open. A gauge of dollar strength and Treasuries were little changed ahead of the release of minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting. While investors remain cautious on the tariff front and talks to end the war in Ukraine, much of the focus in Asia is on whether a $1 trillion rally in Chinese stocks will be sustained. Advances in artificial intelligence by DeepSeek and President Xi Jinping’s meeting with tech companies, including Alibaba Group co-founder Jack Ma, have encouraged investors. Chinese mainland investors bought HK$22.4 billion ($2.9 billion) of the city’s stocks on Tuesday. The inflow Tuesday from mainland China to Hong Kong was the biggest daily purchase since early 2021 and the fourth largest on record, according to Bloomberg-compiled data going back to late 2016, when trading links with the financial hub began. Shares in Baidu Inc. declined as much as 7.3% in Hong Kong after the company announced a drop in revenue. The weakness in internet companies came after Baidu’s forecast raised concerns about capital expenditure, said Ken Wong, an Asian equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments. Investors are concerned “that Chinese internet companies are not seeing the growth prospects this year and hence not raising CAPEX,” he said. In corporate news, HSBC Holdings Plc said it expects $1.8 billion in costs over the next two years as it embarks on a global restructuring program that has seen the lender shutter some of its businesses and slash management ranks. National Australia Bank Ltd.’s shares slid as much as 8.6% after first quarter earnings declined. On tariffs, Trump’s announcement of new duties are expected to come as soon as April 2. His previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum are set to come in March. Tuesday’s comments are his most detailed yet in specifying other sectors that would be hit with fresh barriers. Shares of Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. declined after Trump’s comments. Japan’s exports rose at a faster clip. The yen strengthened after a drop in the previous session. On the geopolitical front, officials from the US and Russia met for a first round of talks over the war in Ukraine and raised the possibility of broader cooperation. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told European allies that the US will keep sanctions on Russia in place at least until a deal to end the Ukraine conflict is reached. In the US, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said policy needs to remain restrictive until there’s more progress on inflation, which she expects will continue declining over time. Investors are awaiting the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committe’s meeting, which offers investors clues on the the outlook for interest rates. In other markets, oil held advances on the possible postponement of OPEC+ supply increases and uncertainty around flows from Russia. Gold fluctuated and traded close to a new record high. US After Hours ANDE +13.6% and COMP +7.8% soaring on earnings; BMBL -19.1%, CE -13.7% pulling back on earnings; HHH -5.1% down following Pershing Square's revised proposal.

Nikkei -0.27% Hang Seng -0.54% CSI +0.62% Shanghai +0.71% Shenzen +1.77%

Eur$ 1.0455 CNH 7.2822 CNY 7.2811 JPY 151.64 GBP 1.2622 CHF 0.9027 RUB 91.3895 TRY 36.3000 WTI$ 72.08 +0.31% Gold 2,935 -0.05% BTC 95,320 +0.33% ETH 2,688 +1.39%

S&P +0.10% Nasdaq +0.15% EuroStoxx -0.09% FTSE +0.02% Dax +0.02% SMI +0.02%

Macro :
- Trump Floats 25% Tariffs on US Auto, Drug, Chip Imports
- Rubio Says Sanctions to Stay for Now as Trump Eyes Putin Summit

Keep an eye on :
- ADP FP : ADP Says Philippe Pascal Appointed Chairman and CEO
- AED BB : Aedifica FY EPRA EPS Beats Estimates
- AGS BB : BNP Paribas Stake in Ageas Rises to 15.07%
- AIR FP : Saudi’s Flyadeal to Firm Up Airbus Widebody Jet Order Next Month
- AKELD SS : Akelius Apartments Bids for Akelius Residential Property D Shrs
- AKZA NA : Akzo Nobel May Sell India Paints Business for Up to $1.7b: Mint
- ALKB DC : ALK-Abello Sees 2025 Revenue in Constant Currency +9% to +13%
- ALSN SW : Also, Westcoast Get Clearance for Strategic Partnership
- ASR NA : ASR Nederland FY Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- BIDU US : Baidu’s Revenue Slides After Chinese AI Rivalry Heats Up (2)
- BB FP : BIC Sees 2025 Net Sales Ex-FX +4% to +6%
- BMW GY : Porsche, BMW Need Germany Pivot for Way Out of Crisis
- BP/ LN : BP Is Said to Weigh Sale of Lubricants Unit With Elliott Pushing
- BP/ LN : BP Considers Selling Lubricants Business in $10 Billion Deal, Bloomberg Says, Citing Sources
- BP/ LN : Investors Ask BP to Let Shareholders Vote on Climate Plan: FT
- CE US : Celanese 4Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates, Celanese Sees 1Q EPS 25c-50c; 4Q Net Sales Meet Estimates: -14% in After Hours
- COL SM : Colonial, SFL Set Their Merger Exchange Ratio at 13:1
- DWS GY : Ardian in Talks for DWS, Infravia Stakes in Save: Repubblica
- EFGN SW : EFG International FY Dividend per Share CHF0.60
- ENGI FP : Engie to Divest Gas Assets in Kuwait, Bahrain
- GLEN LN : Glencore FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- HPQ US : HP to Acquire Most of Startup Humane’s Assets for $116 Million
- HSBA LN : HSBC Posts Quarterly Net Profit, Plans $2 Billion Share Buyback
- ICAD FP : Icade 2025 Group NCCF/Shr Forecast Beats Estimates
- INTC US : Silver Lake in talks to buy majority stake in Intel’s Altera unit
- INTEGB SS : Integrum Offers SEK30 million Class B Shares via Carnegie, Integrum Offering of 1.94m Shares Prices at SEK16/Share
- DEC FP : JCDecaux Wins 10-Year Ad Concession for Dammam Airports
- MEKKO FH : Marimekko 4Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- MEDCL FP : MedinCell Offers About 10% of Company Shares
- MSTR US : Saylor’s Strategy to Raise Another $2 Billion for Bitcoin
- MTX GY : MTU Aero 4Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- NEX FP : 2024: A record-breaking performance paving the way for 2025-2028 strategic roadmap
- NVDA US : Nvidia-Backed Robotics Startup Field Targets $2 Billion Valuation
- ONTEX BB : Ontex 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Margin Misses Estimates
- PFE US : Pfizer Vulnerable to Threat of European Tariffs, CEO Bourla Says
- PHIA NA : Philips 4Q Adjusted Ebita Misses Estimates , Philips Order Intake Returns to Growth as Recall Woes Fade
- P911 GY : Porsche, BMW Need Germany Pivot for Way Out of Crisis
- REC SM : Recordati Holder Rossini Sarl Offers About 10.5m Shares, Recordati Offering by Holder Prices at EU55.70/Share
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto’s Lithium Expansion Likely Drove Growth: Preview
- SFQ GY : SAF-Holland SE Prelim FY Adjusted Ebit About EU190M
- SAN SM : Santander to Invest Over $2B in Mexico Over Three Years: Botin
- SANFP : Sanofi, CD&R Sign Opella Share Purchase Agreement
- SHOT SS : Scandic 4Q Net Sales Meet Estimates
- SESG FP : SES Sees FY Adj. Ebitda Above EU950M to EU1.00B, Est. EU998.7M
- SWON SW : SoftwareONE Sees 2025 Revenue at Constant Currency +2% to +4%
- STMN SW : Straumann FY Ebitda Misses Estimates
- TEF SM : Telefonica Aims to Sell Uruguay Business, El Economista Reports
- TEMN SW : Temenos Sees 2025 Non-IFRS Ebit at Least +5%
- TSLA US : Musk’s X Is in Talks to Raise Money at a $44 Billion Valuation
- TGS NO : TGS Launches New Multiclient Project in Barents Sea
- VCT FP : Vicat FY Ebitda Beats Estimates
- VPK NA : Vopak FY Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates, Vopak to Launch EUR100 Million Share Buyback Program

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 19th of February 2025

>>> Up
* Addnode Group AB Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 140 kronor
* Antofagasta Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 2,400 pence
* BBVA Raised to Buy by AlphaValue
* Sabadell Raised to Buy by AlphaValue
* STMicro Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 34 euros

>>> Down
* Bouvet Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 76 kroner
* Bouvet Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 78 kroner
* Heidelberg Materials Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Hermes Cut to Sell at DZ Bank; PT 2,347 euros
* Holcim Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Julius Baer Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 58 Swiss francs
* Neinor Cut to Hold at Bestinver; PT 16.10 euros
* Qiagen Cut to Neutral at Baird; PT 40.15 euros
* Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF
* Stendorren Fastigheter Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities
* Tate & Lyle Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 600 pence
* Trainline Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 400 pence
* Vaisala Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 54 euros
* Wacker Chemie Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 82 euros

>>> Initiation
* Frequentis Rated New Buy at Erste Group; PT 37 euros
* GE Vernova Rated New Outperform at CICC; PT $423
* Reply Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 180 euros

>>> Call

FT : How to fix Europe’s securitisation market

How to fix Europe’s securitisation market
Unclogging the pipes

Europe has a financial plumbing problem. Nothing illustrates this better than its securitisation markets. This is such a big issue that a seemingly exotic financial tool has shot up the agenda in Brussels lately.

Securitisation is the process of transforming a bunch of smaller loans or other cash-generating assets into larger, tradable securities. Despite the lingering bad smell from the damage this caused in the global financial crisis, a trio of landmark reports by Mario Draghi, Enrique Letta and Christian Noyer have all recommended European securitisation reforms to unclog the process and help credit flow to new projects.

The scale of the challenge is huge. Just to take one example securitisation of US data centre debt has totalled $35bn since 2018, according to JPMorgan. The EU has yet to see a single transaction. Similarly, US solar securitisation has raised $23bn since 2018, whereas the EU saw its first and so far only residential solar securitisation in 2024, raising just €230mn. 


If Europe can’t even finance these so-called strategic assets, what hope is there for midsized businesses or a broader array of assets? That’s why the Draghi-Letta-Noyer triptych matter more than most European reports, work streams and white papers.

Already there is a sense that something might finally change. Late last year, the EU kick-started a short consultation process on how to make European securitisation great again. The comment letters are now in, and the EU will make recommendations before the summer.  

This is overdue. Almost a decade ago, Simon Potter, formerly the markets head of the New York Federal Reserve and now vice chair of fixed income at Millennium, argued that “too much research before the crisis put too much faith in market efficiency and spent too little time exploring the detailed plumbing of the financial system.” The consultation helps address that.

However, the letters make clear that the EU probably needs to consider a system-wide response, much like a plumber would bleed every radiator to help warm a house. This won’t be easy, as individual agencies may not view the system-wide issues as their problem.

Willingness to push through will be litmus test of Europe’s determination to recalibrate regulations for growth — and close the widening gap to the US. But the comment letters do highlight four important valves that could at least be jiggled to get things going.

Valve 1: Life insurers, the missing EU lender
Europe has straitjacketed insurers from playing a larger role in financing the real economy via buying senior tranches of securitisations. As Apollo’s comment letter puts it:

Life insurers are particularly well-suited to finance the E.U.’s strategic, long-dated capital needs, but the European life sector currently holds only 0.33% of investment assets in securitizations vs. ~17% for U.S. life insurers despite similar industry sizes . . . The missing life insurer ‘bid’ dampens the broader E.U. securitisation market, reducing supply and demand at all points in offered securitisation tranches.

Here’s a great chart from Apollo that highlights the stark difference.


The absence of European insurers is largely driven by Solvency II capital rules, which impose punitive capital charges on securitisation — even those with investment-grade ratings that carry comparable or lower risks than corporate bonds.

Addressing this gap is vital. By recalibrating Solvency II to better align capital charges with the true risks of securitisation, European regulators could incentivise insurers to invest in these assets. Doing so would unlock a massive pool of private capital, reduce the cost of financing for businesses and infrastructure projects, and help Europe meet its strategic economic objectives.

As the Investment Company Institute argued in its submission:

The current EU prudential framework does not properly reflect these different levels of risk in the securitisation market. In certain circumstances, 10-year duration non-STS bonds, regardless of seniority in the capital structure, have a 100% capital charge. These charges are also considerably higher than those imposed by other regulatory frameworks, placing EU market participants at a competitive disadvantage. 

Valve 2: STS criteria don’t work for many assets
So what’s this “STS” referenced in the ICI’s comment letter? To revitalise the securitisation market, the EU created the “simple-transparent-standardised” label – STS for short – which came into effect at the start of 2019.

This was meant to make things simpler, but many comment letters suggest it has inadvertently had the opposite effect. One of the strengths of securitisation is the breadth of stuff that can be financed, but the STS label was seemingly designed primarily for a very narrow set of bank-dominated assets. As BlackRock argued:

The regulatory standards put in place following the Global Financial Crisis represented a significant prioritisation of risk management, governance and investor protection in securitisation markets. However, the securitisation market believes that while well intended the regulations ended up being overly prescriptive and rather than reviving the market have ended up restricting it.

The optimal solution would be to streamline the STS categorisation all together via simplifying definitions, broadening STS criteria and ensuring that regulations reflect the economic risks rather than adding unnecessary complexity. 

A simpler option suggested by some of the comment letters would be to just carve out asset classes that are strategically important to long-term economic growth, have a low default rate history, address asymmetry of information, and represent transactions solely between sophisticated parties that already address these risks and inbuilt protections. That way, new assets like data centres and solar projects could be included.

Valve 3: Scale up true sale securitisation
Another problem is “true sale securitisation.” This process converts illiquid assets into tradable securities and is a proven mechanism for mobilising capital.

Unlike synthetic securitisation — or Europe’s €2.4tn covered bond market — this enables banks to offload loans completely, freeing up balance sheets to support further lending while connecting investors to a broader range of financing opportunities.

The EU lags far behind the US in this critical area, with just €440bn in true sale securitisation outstanding, compared with approximately €2.8tn in the US — a 6.5-fold difference. The discrepancy underscores how underutilised this financial tool remains in Europe.

Closing this gap is essential to boosting Europe’s economic vim. With a better securitisation framework, the EU could potentially unlock over €1tn in additional financing, according to Apollo’s estimates.   

The irony is that as banks struggle to issue true sale securitisation in size, they instead end up creating more opaque “synthetic risk transfers”. Moreover, true sales are simpler, have a more direct impact on credit availability in the economy and at the same time reduce interconnected risk to the banking system.

Valve 4: Streamline paperwork and due diligence
The current due diligence framework for securitisation is too costly and complex, discouraging investment, especially in the secondary market. The EU rule book shouldn’t require investors to verify regulatory compliance already handled by other regulated entities, the International Capital Markets Association argued in its response. 

This is a point European Cooperative Banks make too, arguing that the due diligence requirements are “too complex and involve many overlapping reporting requirements, creating a significant obstacle for the full development of the market” — particularly for smaller businesses.

The European Fund and Asset Management Association argues the paperwork is also disproportionate and overly proscriptive:

Many of our members have explained that, for certain types of securitisations such as CLOs and CMBS, the quarterly granular reporting templates mandated under the SECR are not fit for purpose.

There are naturally a host of other suggested valves that could be adjusted, such as limits on mutual fund ownership, what is considered a liquid asset for a bank, and bank retention rules.

But the above four seem to be the main ones Europe should focus on, judging by the comment letters.

Where next?
So will the Commission accept these recommendations? It’s hard to ignore the fact that Europe has been talking about “capital markets union” for over a decade, but periodic tweaks have failed to grasp the nettle. The comments certainly underscore how frustrated market participants are.


In the most recent review of securitisation in 2022 the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority argued that there was insufficient demand from insurers to merit change. However, the Association for Financial Markets in Europe, an umbrella trade group, suggested in its latest response that this is simply not true:

We have had categoric feedback from insurers that there would be material interest in securitisation investments, across the capital structure if it were not for the elevated capital charges associated with securitisation positions vs vanilla credit (on a like-for-like rating basis).

In fact, over 40 groups or institutions which responded to the Commission’s request for comment argued that the Solvency II rules are an impediment to the market.    

Will something actually change this time? Who knows, but for the first time in a long time there seems to be some guarded optimism.

At Davos this year, Nicolai Tangen, the head of the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, went around saying that the restoration of Notre-Dame was Europe’s greatest success story of the past five years — and it happened simply because almost all regulation and rules were negated for the rebuild. “It is unbelievable what Europe can achieve if they are allowed to,” Tangen argued.

Europe needs a more flexible financial market to finance innovation and growth. Closing the gap to a buoyant and deregulating US won’t be easy.   But unclogging the securitisation market would be a great to start.