>>> US Research Calls II

Research Calls II
  • Upgrades:
    • American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) upgraded to Market Outperform at Citizens JMP
    • Woodside Energy Group (WDS) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Citigroup
  • Downgrades:
    • Domino's Pizza (DPZ) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus
    • Hims and Hers (HIMS) downgraded to Hold at Nephron
  • Others:
    • BioCryst Pharma (BCRX) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush; tgt $15
    • EHang Holdings (EH) started with a Buy at CMB International Securities
    • Infinity Natural Resources (INR) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $30
    • Infinity Natural Resources (INR) initiated with an Overweight at Stephens; tgt $30
    • Infinity Natural Resources (INR) initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James; tgt $30
    • Infinity Natural Resources (INR) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $30
    • Infinity Natural Resources (INR) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $26
    • Metsera (MTSR) initiated as Early-Stage Biotech at Goldman Sachs
    • Metsera (MTSR) initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI
    • Metsera (MTSR) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $38
    • Metsera (MTSR) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim; tgt $56

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • Block (XYZ) upgraded to Equal-Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt $65
    • Globant (GLOB) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Redburn Atlantic; tgt raised to $150
    • Philips (PHG) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas
    • Quanta Services (PWR) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets; tgt lowered to $316
    • Telecom Argentina (TEO) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $13
    • Walmart (WMT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at DZ Bank; tgt $110
  • Downgrades:
    • AllianceBernstein (AB) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen; tgt raised to $38.50
    • Civitas Resources (CIVI) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets
    • Coca-Cola European Partners (CCEP) downgraded to Reduce from Hold at Kepler
    • Farmland Partners (FPI) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Lucid Capital
    • GDS Holdings (GDS) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt raised to $37
    • Liberty Latin America (LILA) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays; tgt lowered to $6.50
    • Realty Income (O) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas; tgt $61
    • Tempus AI (TEM) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $55
  • Others:
    • BGC Group (BGC) initiated with a Buy at BofA Securities; tgt $16
    • Centrus Energy (LEU) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright; tgt $300
    • Constellium (CSTM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $15
    • Costco (COST) initiated with an Outperform at KGI Securities
    • DoubleDown Interactive (DDI) resumed with a Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $23
    • Insmed (INSM) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt $100
    • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank; tgt $18
    • Kura Sushi (KRUS) initiated with a Hold at TD Cowen; tgt $72
    • Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) initiated with a Buy at DA Davidson; tgt $50
    • Sandisk (SNDK) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt $56
    • Solaris Energy Infrastructure (SEI) initiated with a Buy at Janney; tgt $57
    • Warby Parker (WRBY) initiated with a Neutral at ROTH MKM; tgt $26
    • Wave Life Sciences (WVE) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies; tgt $26

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • CHGG -23.1% (also initiating strategic review, files complaint against Google), HIMS -22.1%, NVTS -19.7%, MPLN -17.8%, MRVI -16% (postpones release; reaffirms guidance), TEM -13.3%, UCTT -12.2%, CNNE -11.4%, DNUT -10.2%, MYGN -9.4% (also appoints new CEO), TCOM -8.4%, OFIX -7.3%, CIVI -6.9%, BTDR -6.9%, CECO -6.8%, CRI -6.4%, KTB -6%, AORT -5.2%, CLF -5%, RIOT -4.9%, SHLS -4.9%, IART -4.8%, CLNE -4.1%, LGIH -3.7%, ZM -3.6%, KINS -3.2%, O -3.1%, BLD -3.1%, CWEN -2.9%, SEE -2.9%, DRVN -2.8%, XHR -2.5%, BSM -2.3%, AXGN -2.3%, DDS -2.1%, ZD -1.9%, AESI -1.7% (increases dividend), AS -1.7%, MAX -1.4%, HSIC -1.4%, LTC -1.1%, PLOW -1.1%, BOW -1.1%, GFL -1%, ELAN -1%, DEA -0.9%, PSA -0.8%
Other news:
  • BBIO -4.2% (initiates long-term $500 mln debt management strategy)
  • TLX -3.5% (receives approval for Illuccix prostate cancer imaging agent in Luxembourg)
  • SGHT -2.8% (to present clinical data on OMNI system)
  • DRS -2.2% (receives $45 mln U.S. contract)
  • CAKE -2% ($450 mln convertible senior notes offering)
  • JACK -1.8% (CEO resigning)
  • HITI -1.6% (pauses acquisition of Purecan GmbH and explores alternative arrangements with Purecan to enter the german medical cannabis market)
  • UL -0.8% (Hein Schumacher is stepping down as Chief Executive Officer)
Analyst comments:
  • O -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas)
  • LILA -2.9% (downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Barclays)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • EVER +28.9%, DOCN +17%, PRIM +11.6%, FARO +9%, XPRO +8.3%, TARS +6.5%, TILE +6%, AHCO +5.4%, VVX +5.3%, AROC +4.8%, SNN +4.7%, TREX +4.4%, DFH +4.3%, VNOM +3.9%, API +3.9%, WDS +3.3%, HLX +2.8%, AWI +2.7%, KDP +2.6%, GSHD +2.5%, FANG +2%, DKL +2%, KBR +1.9%, PRA +1.9%, MIDD +1.8%, STN +1.3%, BWXT +1.2%, FMS +1.1%, BEAM +1.1%, ADUS +0.9%
Other news:
  • RDHL +9.3% (licenses RHB-102 for commercialization worldwide Excluding North America to Hyloris for up to $60 million in potential milestone payments plus royalties)
  • YY +8.3% (Baidu acquires JOYY's (YY) live streaming business in China)
  • NEOV +3.1% ($300 mln loan application passes Phase 2 of Department of Energy loan program)
  • LLY +1.6% (launches additional Zepbound vial doses and offers new savings for self-pay patients)
  • SONO +1.5% ($150 mln repurchase plan)
  • BIDU +1.5% (Baidu acquires JOYY's (YY) live streaming business in China)
  • SNY +1.2% (receives approval for Sarclisa in Japan for patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma)
  • SB +1.1% (announces 3 mln share repurchase program)
  • BBSI +1% (launches applicant tracking system)
  • CHX +0.9% (entered into a definitive agreement to sell all of its equity interests in US Synthetic Corporation to LongRange Capital)
Analyst comments:
  • PHG +2.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) +5%
    • Fresenius Medical Care Eyes More Cost Cuts to Drive Profits
  • Saab (SDV1 TH) +1.6%
  • Novo (NOV TH) +1.4%
  • Prysmian (AEU TH) +1%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +0.9%
    • Watch European Defense Stocks as Germany Discusses Spending Plan
  • Safran (SEJ1 TH) +0.9%
  • BAE (BSP TH) +0.8%
  • Thales (CSF TH) +0.7%
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) +0.7%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -1.1%
  • Hermes (HMI TH) -1.2%
  • STMicro (SGM TH) -1.5%
  • ASM Intl (AVS TH) -1.7%
    • Watch European Chip Stocks on Curbs Report, US Peer Weakness
  • Renault (RNL TH) -1.8%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.9%
  • Unilever (UNVB TH) -2.6%
    • Unilever CEO Hein Schumacher to Step Down in Surprise Exit
  • ASML (ASME TH) -3.1%
  • Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) -6.2%
    • Heidelberg Materials Sees 2025 RCO EU3.25B to EU3.55B

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Fresenius Medical Care (FME TH) +3.8%
    • Fresenius Medical Care Eyes More Cost Cuts to Drive Profits
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +2%
    • Watch European Defense Stocks as Germany Discusses Spending Plan
  • Infineon (IFX TH) -1.6%
    • Watch European Chip Stocks on Curbs Report, US Peer Weakness
  • Heidelberg Materials (HEI TH) -5.4%
    • Heidelberg Materials Sees 2025 RCO EU3.25B to EU3.55B
MDAX:
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +3%
    • Saudi Wealth Fund’s Alat Unit Buys 15% Stake in TK Elevator (1)
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.4%
  • Schott Pharma AG & Co KGaA (1SXP TH) +1.2%
    • Schott Pharma Raised to Buy at UBS
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) -1.8%
SDAX:
  • Formycon (FYB TH) +3.9%
  • EQS-News: Formycon receives regulatory approval in the UK for FYB203
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) +1.9%
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) +1.8%
  • Hamborner REIT (HABA TH) +1.4%
    • Hamborner REIT FY FFO/Share Beats Estimates
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +1.1%
  • About You (YOU TH) -1.4%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 25th of February 2025

>>> Up
* Almirall Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 11.50 euros
* B&M European Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Schott Pharma Raised to Buy at UBS
* SocGen Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 46 euros
* Walmart Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT $110

>>> Down
* B&M European Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 310 pence
* Hoegh Autoliners Cut to Sell at Fearnley; PT 65 kroner
* H&M Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 145 kronor
* Just Eat Takeaway Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 20.30 euros
* Just Eat Takeaway Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 20.30 euros
* Renault Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 52 euros
* Viafin Service Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 21.50 euros
* Wallenius Wilhelmsen Cut to Sell at Fearnley; PT 75 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Aryzta Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 2.40 Swiss francs
* BCP Reinstated Outperform at Autonomous; PT 66 euro cents
* Mortgage Advice Bureau Rated New Buy at Berenberg
* Public Property Invest Rated New Buy at SpareBank; PT 24 kroner
* Volvo Car Rated New Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 22 kronor

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 25th of February 2025

Asian stocks fell the most in three weeks as US President Donald Trump’s decision to go ahead with tariffs on Canada and Mexico and order curbs on Chinese investment damped risk appetite. Shares fell across the region with some of the biggest declines in Japan, Taiwan and Hong Kong. Treasury 10-year yields dropped three basis points to 4.4% in Asia, after gold climbed to a record Monday on demand for havens. Bitcoin, seen as a so-called “Trump trade,” slipped with other crypto currencies. Trump said tariffs scheduled to hit Canada and Mexico next month were “on time” and “moving along very rapidly” following an initial delay. Sentiment in the broader market also soured after the president told a government committee to curb Chinese spending on tech, energy and other strategic American sectors. Trump also deepened Washington’s split with its allies over Ukraine, withdrawing US condemnation of Russia’s 2022 invasion at the United Nations and among Group-of-Seven countries as he aims to end the war on terms agreeable to Moscow.  Trump officials are also sketching out tougher versions of US semiconductor curbs. The declines are a test for Chinese technology shares after they rallied to a three-year high on optimism over DeepSeek and President Xi Jinping’s meeting with corporate leaders.
Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts about restricting Tokyo Electron Ltd. and ASML Holding NV engineers from maintaining semiconductor gear in China, according to people familiar with the matter.  This comes after a directive set the stage for a more muscular use of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, a secretive panel that scrutinizes proposals by foreign entities to buy US companies or property, to thwart Chinese investment.  In Japan, trading houses, including Mitsubishi Corp. and Marubeni Corp., rallied on Tuesday after Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said it was looking to increase ownership in the companies in an annual letter to shareholders dated Saturday.  Elsewhere in Asia, Bank of Korea cut its seven-day repurchase rate by a quarter-percentage point to 2.75% in a widely expected move.  In other markets, oil edged higher as investors assessed a fresh wave of US sanctions on Iran. Gold held near its record. Bitcoin slipped for a third day, while Ether and many of the higher profile altcoins such as Solana and Dogecoin also remained under pressure as investors turn elsewhere with the sector still reeling after its biggest-ever hack last week.  US After Hours EVER +29.3% and BYON +11.4% up big on earnings; CHGG -20.1% plunges on downbeat guidance, strategic review, and complaint against Google.

Nikkei -1.28% Hang Seng -0.86% CSI -0.74% Shanghai -0.40% Shenzen -0.30%

Eur$ 1.0477 CNH 7.2593 CNY 7.2589 JPY 149.64 GBP 1.2638 CHF 0.8972 RUB 87.7501 TRY 36.4608 WTI$ 71.12 +0.50% Gold 2,939 -0.30% BTC 91,550 -2.50% ETH 2,504 -5%

S&P +0.09% Nasdaq +0.02% EuroStoxx -0.35% FTSE -0.13% Dax -0.34% SMI -0.08%

Macro :
- Thoma Bravo Closes €1.8b European Fund for Software Deals: FT
- Trump Wants Canada-to-US Keystone XL Oil Pipeline Built ‘Now’
- EU January Car Registrations Drop 2.6% Y/y to 0.831m Units
- Europe EV Sales Soar 37% as Carmakers Demand Laxer CO2 Rules
- Trump Team Seeks to Toughen Biden’s Chip Controls Over China
- Europe must cut electricity taxes, warn Iberdrola and EDP bosses
- Musk Seeks to Use Starlink Terminals in US Airspace System

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Japan’s ANA to Buy at Least 77 Jets From Boeing, Airbus, Embraer
- APD US : Air Products to Exit 3 US Projects, Expects Up to $3.1B Charge
- AKZA NA : Akzo Nobel Offers to Buy Indian Subsidiary Powder Coatings Ops
- ALGM US : Allegro Shares Drop as Evercore Calls CEO Transition Unexpected
- BAVA DC : Bavarian Nordic to Partner With BE on Chikungunya Vaccine
- BRK/A US : Buffett’s Bet Sparks Surge in Japan Trading House Shares
- BP/ LN : BP to abandon pledge to cut oil and gas output as boss fights for group’s survival
- BVI FP : Bureau Veritas FY Adjusted Operating Margin Matches Estimates
- CPRI US : Diesel’s Renzo Rosso Says Potentially Interested in Versace: MF
- CAVA US : Cava to Grow Despite DOGE Thinning DC Lunch Crowd: Preview
- CMO SM : Cemex Is Said to Explore Sale of Colombian Cement Business
- CWC GY : Cewe Stiftung Prelim 4Q Ebit EU80.6M
- CLARI FP : Clariane Sees 2025 Organic Revenue About +5%
- CAKE US : Cheesecake Factory Said to Offer 2%-2.5% Coupon on Convertibles
- CRDA LN : Croda FY Adjusted Operating Profit Meets Estimates
- DOKA SW : Dormakaba 1H Net Sales Match Estimates; Names New CFO
- DND CN : Dye & Durham Said to Receive Take-Private Offer From Plantro
- EDP PL : Europe must cut electricity taxes, warn Iberdrola and EDP bosses
- EFGN SW : EFG International Sells Synthetic Life Insurance Portfolio
- ELUXB SS : Electrolux to Keep Business in Egypt; Plans for Growth
- ERICB SS : Airtel Expands Ericsson Partnership for 5G Network Solutions
- FEHIX US : Genstar Is Said in Talks to Buy First Eagle for Over $4 Billion
- FTK GY : flatexDEGIRO Prelim FY Revenue EU480M
- FME GY : Fresenius Medical Care 4Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- GALP PL : Galp Says Successfully Drilled Mopane-3X Well Offshore Namibia
- G IM : Prima Assicurazioni Hires Goldman to Weigh Options: Sole
- HABA GY : Hamborner REIT FY FFO/Share Beats Estimates
- HEI GY : Heidelberg Materials Sees 2025 RCO EU3.25B to EU3.55B
- IBE SM : Europe must cut electricity taxes, warn Iberdrola and EDP bosses
- KVUE US : *KENVUE FILES MIXED SECURITIES SHELF
- MSTR US : Strategy’s Latest Convertible Bond Spurs Talk of Crypto Fatigue
- MSTR US : Cantor Wagering $1 Billion on Saylor Among Bitcoin 13F Surprises
- NewCleo (Private / UK) : Abu Dhabi’s ENEC Eyes Investment in Nuclear Specialist Newcleo
- PSPN SW : PSP Swiss FY Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- Prima Assic : Prima Assicurazioni Hires Goldman to Weigh Options: Sole
- RHM GY : Watch European Defense Stocks as Germany Discusses Spending Plan
- RIO LN : Palliser Asks Rio Board to Put Forward Dual-listing Resolution
- ROVI SM : Rovi FY Ebitda Misses Estimates; Sees Op. Revenue Decrease
- SAN FP : Sanofi’s Sarclisa Approved in Japan for Multiple Myeloma
- SIGN SW : SIG Group Sees 2025 Adjusted Ebitda Margin 24.5% to 25.5%
- SN/ LN : Smith & Nephew FY Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- SOLV US : Thermo Fisher Nears Deal for Solventum Filtration Unit -- WSJ
- SONO US : Sonos Approves Up to $150m Buyback as CCO Resigns
- SpaceX : SpaceX Key Engineer Is Leaving Musk’s Team After Mobile Kickoff
- Space X : Musk Seeks to Use Starlink Terminals in US Airspace System
- SPSN SW : Swiss Prime Dips After Offering Shares Worth Up to CHF300M
- TEF SM : Telefonica Unit Sells Stake in Argentina for $1.245b
- TELIA SS : Telia Agrees to Divest TV & Media Business to Schibsted Media
- TSLA US : Tesla Sales Fall 45% in Europe as Rivals’ EV Registrations Soar
- TSLA US : Tesla to Launch City Navigation Features in China
- TCOM US : Trip.com 4Q Revenue Beats Estimate on Travel Demand: Analysts
- UNO GY : Uniper to Pay Back €2.6b to German Government in 1Q
- VLA FP : Bavarian Nordic to Partner With BE on Chikungunya Vaccine

FT : Tesla starts 2025 with sharp drop in sales in Europe

Tesla starts 2025 with sharp drop in sales in Europe
Sales down 45% in January for EV maker led by Elon Musk

Tesla sales plummeted in Europe in January, suggesting waning demand for the US carmaker’s vehicles after its billionaire chief Elon Musk stepped up his high-profile interventions in the region’s politics.

The EV maker sold just 9,900 units in Europe last month, a decline of more than 45 per cent from the same period in 2024, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association. Its overall share of new car registrations fell to 1 per cent from 1.8 per cent over the same period.

Tesla’s falling market share comes after Musk’s unprecedented foray into EU politics, where he backed the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) ahead of the country’s elections, sparking a backlash on the continent. Musk has also railed against the EU, which he described in November as “undemocratic”.

The fall came even as European consumers purchased 166,000 battery EVs for the month, up 37 per cent from a year ago. Pure EV sales grew faster than those of all other types of vehicles, while sales of cars with petrol and diesel engines fell 20.5 per cent and 26.5 per cent, respectively.

The figures include the EU, UK and other markets including Norway, one of Europe’s biggest markets for EVs.

European sales by SAIC Motor, the Chinese state-backed carmaker that has expanded into the EU and partnered with Audi in China, rose 37 per cent to 23,000 vehicles in January, among the largest year-on-year increases in sales of any large manufacturer in the region.

Overall new vehicle registrations on the continent fell by 2.1 per cent in January to 995,271.

WSJ : Chinese Manufacturers Speed Up Efforts to Dodge Trump Tariffs

Chinese Manufacturers Speed Up Efforts to Dodge Trump Tariffs
Trump’s latest China tariffs accelerate plans for some businesses to shift production to Southeast Asia

After the Trump administration put a new 10% tariff on Chinese products earlier this month, Agilian Technology, an electronics manufacturer in China, pressed forward with its plan to avoid additional levies.

In the run-up to last year’s election, Agilian grew increasingly worried that the U.S. would introduce new tariffs if Donald Trump returned to the White House, and one of its key customers asked it to devise a contingency plan for such a scenario. Soon after, an executive from the company visited a factory in Malaysia to explore moving some production there.

Now the 10% levy—and the threat of more to come—is forcing Agilian to quickly set up production in the country, with the goal of sending its first goods to the U.S. in the spring.

“It is forcing us to accelerate the work,” said Renaud Anjoran, executive vice president of Agilian, who is visiting India soon to scope out other factories.

For many Chinese manufacturers, Trump’s return has added urgency to continuing plans to open factories or find partners in other countries, especially in Southeast Asia. Others that embarked on the “China plus one” strategy—finding a backup to China as the world’s factory floor—are moving more production abroad.

Some factories are looking for ways to lower prices and keep their products attractive as tariffs raise costs for U.S. buyers. But profit margins are already stretched thin in many industries in China, leaving limited room to trim prices.

Manufacturers are bracing for more pain. The Trump administration has proposed fees on Chinese shipping companies and Chinese-built ships entering U.S. ports. President Trump is also weighing reciprocal tariffs and new levies on automobiles, semiconductors and pharmaceutical products. On the campaign trail, Trump discussed tariffs of at least 60% on China.

Even before Trump launched his trade war against China in 2018, rising wages in the country prompted some companies to search for cheaper labor elsewhere. Tariffs on Chinese imports and the supply-chain disruptions caused by the Covid pandemic also illustrated to manufacturers the importance of diversifying.

Under higher tariffs, China’s share of U.S. imports has fallen. But China’s global trade surplus—the difference between the value of exports and imports—has only grown, while the U.S.’s overall trade deficit has widened. Some analysts believe that is due in part to Chinese companies rerouting production to other countries for goods that end up in the U.S.

Chinese companies looking for ways to dodge tariffs have expanded production to places such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand. Outward direct investment from China into the manufacturing industry in Asean, a bloc of Southeast Asian countries, was about $9.1 billion in 2023, up from around $4.5 billion in 2018, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.

Greenfield investment—the setting up of factories and new operations—accounted for most of the Chinese investment into East Asia and the Pacific since 2022, according to Fathom Consulting analysis.

Since Trump’s first presidential campaign, Steve Greenspon, chief executive of Illinois-based houseware company Honey-Can-Do International, has been interested in moving more of his production outside China. His customers, Walmart and other retailers, have urged him to diversify.

Before Trump’s first round of tariffs on China, Greenspon estimated his company made about 50% of its products in China, with the rest made in Vietnam and Taiwan. China now accounts for about 20% of production, while Vietnam makes up around 60% and Taiwan the remaining 20%.

One of his Chinese contractors, which makes velvet hangers, is setting up a factory in Cambodia. Greenspon expects the facility to be finished in about six months and has offered to move production there once the factory is up and running.

Discussion between the companies about moving some manufacturing elsewhere began during Trump’s first term, but it wasn’t until several months ago, when Trump’s chances of returning to the White House appeared more likely, that the plan became concrete.

“I would be surprised if, by the end of 2025, we’re doing any significant business in China,” Greenspon said.

Moving supply chains isn’t easy. It takes time and money to scout new locations, build facilities, train workers, get to know local regulations and bring up production quality and speed. Some manufacturers say China’s advanced infrastructure and robust supply chains make it easier to do business there than in other countries. Even if they move some production to another country, many say the materials for their products will have to be sourced mainly from China.

Trump’s propensity to keep the world guessing on his next moves makes it hard to commit to those investments. Companies could spend millions on a factory in another country, only to see Trump target that country, too—such as his proposed tariffs on Mexico, where investment from Chinese companies has increased in the past few years. Or Trump could quickly reverse some of his policies, as he did when he postponed tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

Sandra Wong, an overseas sales and digital-marketing specialist for an electronics maker in Shenzhen, said her company is preparing to ease some of the cost of tariffs for her clients by lowering prices. They are looking for ways to cut production costs without lowering quality, such as implementing more automation.

“We can discuss and negotiate with our clients,” she said. “We are all in this together.”

The latest tariffs will likely make it harder for her to attract new buyers, but she is hopeful her company’s products will remain attractive. She said her factory plans to make more high-value products, such as automotive electronics.

William Liu, sales director for Rongli Garments, a Yiwu-based manufacturer that makes seamless garments for retailers such as Walmart and Sam’s Club, said his company will reduce prices by 5% to help absorb some of the added tariff costs, which will cut into profits.

Economists found that tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term didn’t change export prices from Chinese manufacturers overall and that the higher cost of tariffs was largely passed on to U.S. customers. Research suggests that Chinese manufacturers’ low profit margins kept them from cutting prices further.

William Guo, a sales director for Qingdao-based tiremaker Lenston Tyre, said profits on his company’s products are too low to cut prices. Instead, his company will produce more from its facilities in Cambodia and Thailand, which currently handle about 30% of production outside of China. He estimates about half of his customers are American. “We will adapt to changing circumstances,” he said.

Anjoran of Agilian Technology said he could try to court more customers from Europe and Australia, but that the company won’t abandon American clients amid rising tariffs. He estimates around half of the products his company makes go to U.S. customers.

Despite the whiplash nature of Trump’s tariffs policy, Anjoran said his company can’t afford to just do nothing and wait for the dust to settle. He believes it will continue to get harder for Chinese manufacturers to sell their goods to Americans.

“It’s a megatrend that we cannot just dodge,” he said.